Malaysia 777 Missing

[W5]

FAQ from Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute:

http://www.whoi.edu/main/faq-malaysia-airlines-flight-370

[cavok]

That whole datalink theory was really out there. Wow

I think the TSB guy was the only one that had any credibility by the end of it.

I often wonder what exactly makes one an 'aviation expert'.

[Innuendo]

The few guys that I thought really did this well and were still complex were one's doing the AMSA briefs.

I could not agree more. The gent I watched was simply excellent in the way he dealt with the media and answered their questions.

Could do with a lot more of that level of competence.

[Don Hudson]

Hi cavok;

Re, "I often wonder what exactly makes one an 'aviation expert'."

Putting one's hand up or answering the call.

The media have done it to themselves. In the very few times I have had the dubious experience I have always regretted offering to "help understand". The problem is a) one is speaking to a lay person who a ) has a deadline, space-limitations and many times a pre-conceived notion of what happened and c) cherry-picks your words for quotes-that-'pop' in the lead line, that can mis-lead, (and have).

It's exasperating because the truth is usually far more interesting but alas too complex, doesn't fit into the fifteen seconds or two column-inches alotted, too far away from the ubiquitous Hollywood comprehension that many reporters have about "the drama" of aviation. Too many don't know how to truly tell a story or do research or even just gain a specialist's confidence and actually listen with their ears instead of their pen. We've all listened to these "experts" and I think could agree that there are very few of them that don't embarrass themselves. It's sad, because I really think the public is smarter and most, not all, can take complex answers. The few guys that I thought really did this well and were still complex were one's doing the AMSA briefs. The other guy was the one from INMARSAT who beautifully explained satellite pings and how they came to the conclusions they did about "the airplane is down in the south Indian Ocean". Their work was exceptional, extremely creative with ordinary stuff and brilliantly, tastefully and competently done. Rare, in a media-hungry world where a second's on-air silence is deadly.

[blues deville]

CNN report states large debris field discovered by satellite. Note: first video link lists countries involved with search and I believe it's South Korea not North.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/26/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-plane/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/26/world/asia/malaysia-plane-questions/index.html?iid=article_sidebar

[Kip Powick]

Interesting info...................from CNN

(((((EXCERPT...............)))))))

What if the airline goes bankrupt? Malaysia Airlines lost money in the final three months of 2013. But even if the airline's financial situation worsens and it becomes insolvent, families of the victims can still collect through the maze of insurance policies.

The industry norm totals between $2 billion and $2.5 billion of coverage per plane, said aviation attorney Dan Rose of Kreindler & Kreindler.

That typically includes about $10 million of insurance behind each passenger, said Brian Havel, a law professor and director of the International Aviation Law Institute at DePaul University.

Don't expect a major incident like this one to sink the insurers, either.

"The aviation insurance market is highly specialized and involves multiple consortia of different insurance companies -- insurers and reinsurers," Havel said. Multiple insurers take small stakes of the larger policies so no single company bears the entire risk.

Link.... http://money.cnn.com/2014/03/25/news/companies/malaysia-airlines-compensation/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

[Don Hudson]

Thanks Kip - the question of Malyasian's long-term survival had been raised in this context but the details weren't available. The airline has very near the worst level of costs among major carriers primarily, it is said, because it is unable to free itself from a political system including patronage that created such entrenched commitments.

Your quotes concerning the cost of accidents certainly puts substantial flesh on the old aviation saying, "If you think safety is expensive...", etc.

[Fido]

Insurance is still one of the smallest elements in an airlines cost pile.

[blues deville]

Once the cargo manifest was finally released to the public another clue to this mystery was added. MH370 was carrying 440 lbs. of lithium ion batteries in one of its cargo holds. In my opinion, the exact location of this dangerous item would be critical and helpful to the investigators. Dangerous Goods training videos have shown how quickly these batteries can ignite and are nearly impossible to extinguish.

Two recent crashes of cargo flights departing from airports with warm/humid weather conditions resulted in bringing down the aircraft in only minutes after take off. Is there some connection?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium-ion_battery (.....if overheated or overcharged, Li-ion batteries may suffer thermal runaway and cell rupture)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asiana_Airlines_Flight_991 (880 lbs of lithium batteries)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UPS_Airlines_Flight_6 (Large quantity/thousands of lithium batteries)

Design a special fire proof container for air freight or ban them

[GDR]

I just can't see that bd. If it was the batteries and it was that serious that it took out the communications that quickly, then the aircraft wouldn't have continued flying as long as it did. Secondly the autopilot continued to work, (which again is unlikely if there was a fire of the magnitude that would knock off the transponder and the ACARS that quickly), and there wasn't just the initial turn back towards Malaysia, but there was a turn to the south made after it crossed over Malaysia. Someone had to turn the heading bug, (or put in a new waypoint), in order for that to happen. They wouldn't have programmed in a route like that, (when the initial turn back was made), if there had been a serious emergency.

[blues deville]

I just can't see that bd. If it was the batteries and it was that serious that it took out the communications that quickly, then the aircraft wouldn't have continued flying as long as it did. Secondly the autopilot continued to work, (which again is unlikely if there was a fire of the magnitude that would knock off the transponder and the ACARS that quickly), and there wasn't just the initial turn back towards Malaysia, but there was a turn to the south made after it crossed over Malaysia. Someone had to turn the heading bug, (or put in a new waypoint), in order for that to happen. They wouldn't have programmed in a route like that, (when the initial turn back was made), if there had been a serious emergency.

I know we are all just guessing at this stage but I can't see this as anything other than some sort of serious pilot incapacitation. And a common denominator is the cargo being carried. My airline bans these being carried on passenger airplanes. But i suppose people would have to wait even longer for their new iPhones if these batteries were transported by ship.

In both the Asiana and UPS 747 cargo crashes, the crews were overcome by smoke and part of their aircraft were on fire in a very short period of time . If the batteries were loaded in the forward cargo hold of MH370, that put it very close to the avionics E&E area. I don't think it would take very long for wires and/or electrical cables to fail if they're surrounded by intense heat or flame. It may have been the communicators who were taken out before the comms. And a fire burning a hole through a fwd cargo fuselage could easily remove the VHF antenna which is used by the ACARS. Items on fire goes out the hole and now you have an airplane on autopilot with fuel for 6 hours of flight.

I think someone did try to turn the aircraft by whatever means to get themselves back on the ground ASAP. But I don't think they were able to do it for very long. And radios being turned on or off can be simple as a pilot trying to make a selection and just not getting it completed properly in an emergency.

Of course, just my opinion. I could be wrong.

[Kip Powick]

....or as distasteful as it sounds, possibly a suicidal maniac up front..................... .

[blues deville]

....or as distasteful as it sounds, possibly a suicidal maniac up front..................... .

Don't think that was the case here. No evidence so far to prove either pilot was suicidal.

I think the location of the lithium batteries is important. A fire in either hold could easily take out the the ACARS transmissions. The R VHF antenna is directly beneath the fwd cargo hold. The C VHF antenna is below the aft cargo hold. Not sure which radio they used for this purpose.

[Don Hudson]

For the fire theory to be primary cause of loss, we must first of all accept that the airplane is in the water within say 100km of the LKP but a mountain of technical evidence tells us that is not the case. We have to take the satellite information as given as it cannot be manufactured to the point of driving such a search effort. The people at INMARSAT who do the work of interpreting their own satellite's signals know what they're doing while most of us do not, (in terms of the mathematics and signal evaluations involved). It is up to theorists of other scenarios to prove otherwise, and if they do convincingly that is all to the good. It hasn't been done yet.

I think any fire on board that could take out the MEC but emanating from the forward cargo hold, (a long way and we don't have an official cargo manifest but those involved likely do) would also compromise the airframe to the point where it could not fly as long as it did. And if a fire were the actual reason for the eventual loss 7hrs later, it is not the primary cause of the reversal of the aircraft's course nor does it supply us with the methods by which the course was altered.

There are a number of very qualified people working on the notion of electronic intervention and it is a worthwhile theory to pursue in order to prove it doable or not likely, or next-to-impossible. I subscribe the to the latter. The "Teso" experiment was done on a primitive simulator system not on the real airplane which would require far more complex swapping of numerous cards and a knowledge of proprietary programming and the intervention must be done on board, a "following 'intervening' aircraft" unlikely; only theoretically possible with herculean effort but not probable.

The airplane ended up in the most inaccessible search area on the surface and undersea terrain on earth. Why?

As an adjunct, the popularity of inexpensive "Spot" satellite receiver/transmitters to provide tracking capability for wilderness hikers is a thin possibility - it works well from aircraft but the chance of a passenger carrying such a device "for entertainment" purposes is vanishingly small.

[Trader]

I find it interesting that the media is so focused on the 'suicidal pilots' but has not looked at the Cabin crew. Most airlines do psych testing on pilots but very few do so for cabin crew and they have easy access to the aircraft.

[UpperDeck]

That's easy to answer. They don't require a psych assessment because the results are already known. You don't have to be nuts to be an FA----but it really, really helps!

[Mitch Cronin]

I know I've already said this, but the more I see the term used the more it makes me want to repeat: If someone wants to commit suicide, they'll take their own life. If someone wants to do so while he's piloting a bird full of passengers, it surely cannot be called "suicide"!!! Please folks, suicide is a very singular personal act. It does not include the murder of many. ....else the "suicide" is a collateral happenstance, not the main event!

I guess you could say I'm arguing semantics, but somehow, to me, labelling it a suicide, in such a case, seems to completely belittle the much more serious crime of killing all those in the aircraft. It just ain't right!

.... just for the record, I'm not saying anything here about MH370...

[deicer]

Some debris recovered, but nothing aviation related....

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26797866

[Kip Powick]

It will be a frosty Friday when you get the Press to change their writings on "suicide bombers"....they too are murderers but the collateral deaths are the result of someone bent on committing suicide.

I don't pretend to know the workings of a person so inclined to put an aircraft into a death spiral but I am sure that particular person only has his problems on his mind and could care less about those sitting in the same tube.

Suicide, I feel, is actually a permanent solution to a temporary problem

[Don Hudson]

If it turns out to be the case, then of course "murder-suicide" is the correct term to employ.

Permit me a slight, familiar diversion?

The problem with media is its appetite. News nourishes, absence of news starves and it's an unhappy organism when slightly hungry. So whether there is news or not, there will be "news", usually accompanied by pretty heads, fancy colorful graphics and dramatic music - it's a show of course, not a social phenomenon which actually tells us what we need to know to function as a democracy.

The key to understanding the ebb and flow of information is, the present "news" on MH370 is not news, it is positioning, the rush to get one's "story" out to drive perceptions. Most of the time media can (and I think for good reasons, should) be ignored but especially in this case as it is a gross insult to the intelligence of all and the families of MH370's victims specifically. To point out that this is geo-political news by interested parties is trivial I know, but it actually IS geo-political and not technical; the potpourri of promotion or alternatively, obfuscation is a fascinating human story and study in itself.

It's why books tend to be precious while media is essentially worthless as a news enterprise. As a political-and-profit enterprise for the owners it is however brilliant. The internet is just a variation on this same theme but with an inconvenient independence that must be controlled lest people actually begin to think for themselves. Broad, pithy brush and I know there are exceptions, just not in Canada or the U.S. The ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) is perhaps one worth listening to even as a succession of conservative governments have begun to starve it. Heck, even the CBC has started to advertise!!

What we demand from organizations with distribution networks like present-day media are "sports and entertainment" in the broadest interpretation of that social value. There is very little in the way of original, investigative journalism and even less of old-fashioned thought. Media bosses and junior reporters alike know what sells and in the case of reporters, also know what copy keeps one's job.

The exceptions to this are extremely rare. Here, they have the quality of integrity and open truth, and have already been pointed out: the no-nonsense Australian John Young of AMSA and the wonderful representative from INMARSAT represent the few who's work is both reported well and who are trustworthy.

It is hard to suspend judgement in favour of curiosity but this tragic story has, as no other in recent memory, made stark the difference between careful analytical thought about what is known, and what the many "interested parties" wish to be known and who push hard to create the noise.

In terms of what is known, we know from INMARSAT the airplane turned south and that approximately 7 hours later ceased transmissions. Below that one heading, we are told that it may have sped up and used more fuel thus went down earlier.

Other than this, it is all conjecture and we know it. As with AF447, the motivation is high so I think they'll find the airplane and retrieve the recorders.

[props2you]

I know we are all just guessing at this stage but I can't see this as anything other than some sort of serious pilot incapacitation. And a common denominator is the cargo being carried. My airline bans these being carried on passenger airplanes. But i suppose people would have to wait even longer for their new iPhones if these batteries were transported by ship.

In both the Asiana and UPS 747 cargo crashes, the crews were overcome by smoke and part of their aircraft were on fire in a very short period of time . If the batteries were loaded in the forward cargo hold of MH370, that put it very close to the avionics E&E area. I don't think it would take very long for wires and/or electrical cables to fail if they're surrounded by intense heat or flame. It may have been the communicators who were taken out before the comms. And a fire burning a hole through a fwd cargo fuselage could easily remove the VHF antenna which is used by the ACARS. Items on fire goes out the hole and now you have an airplane on autopilot with fuel for 6 hours of flight.

I think someone did try to turn the aircraft by whatever means to get themselves back on the ground ASAP. But I don't think they were able to do it for very long. And radios being turned on or off can be simple as a pilot trying to make a selection and just not getting it completed properly in an emergency.

Of course, just my opinion. I could be wrong.

That really comes across as grasping at straws.

[blues deville]

That really comes across as grasping at straws.

Really? Well that's why I sometimes add my disclaimer.....just my opinion, I could be wrong.

And I just might be.

I've flip/flopped on my thoughts about this crash but I've been mostly on the side of an aircraft problem/fire as a cause in this mystery. However, having just landed in KUL and speaking with a former Malaysia pilot on the crew bus into the city, I think the authorities need to go back and review the recent personal life and state of mind of the Captain of MH370. Much is known inside the local aviation groups of Kuala Lumpur but has not been released to the public. If any of what I was just told is true, this may be the most the most bizarre airliner incident ever.

[inchman]

Really? Well that's why I sometimes add my disclaimer.....just my opinion, I could be wrong.

And I just might be.

If you think you might be wrong, even putting the next paragraph into words is irresponsible, at best.

[Don Hudson]

blues, I think conjecture is natural. We all speculate, using our experience, knowledge, personal world view and so on. My thoughts on media don't mean that one shouldn't read the stuff, but that one should read such stuff for what it is - politics and tea-leaves.

At this stage of the search and investigation, nothing is privileged so everything is on the table "in the marketplace of ideas" - the only requirement is the ability to logically present the theory such that there are no serious counter-examples.

There is a paper by the MAK (Russian Accident Investigation body) that cites five different accidents where the aircraft was lost from cruise altitude and all crash sites were within 15km of the event causing the loss. One could reasonably and statistically state that searching the Gulf of Thailand would be the first intelligent thing to do but the pings obviate this course of action!

[blues deville]

If you think you might be wrong, even putting the next paragraph into words is irresponsible, at best.

Let's wait and see.