dagger

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dagger last won the day on May 10

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  1. Talk about worthless CUPE press releases. Anyway, I wouldn't be shocked if another bid for Transat emerges, although I am inclined to think it would be from some ego-driven blowhard Quebec industrialist like PK Peladeau. Westjet is on credit watch now for a possible downgrade, and adding another $600 million in debt for AT would not be especially helpful. If AC reaches a formal deal with AT, I'd be interested to see what the Competition Bureau wants in terms of divestitures. Meanwhile, the A321neos are a nice get for Rouge, which presumably can operate them off the east coast against WS or any foreign operators.
  2. dagger

    Westjet

    Assuming he still has a lot of Westjet stock, the Bean is probably counting his profits today! He's still lurking here.
  3. dagger

    Westjet

    I'm figuring that someone might. Delta is the most logical from a US perspective.
  4. dagger

    Westjet

    I wonder if ONEX would have the stomach to add even more debt to Westjet's balance sheet to fight AC or others on Transat AC stock opening up 4%
  5. dagger

    Westjet

    Westjet did supposedly make an offer for Transat, and AC was invited to counter and supposedly did, and there may be other bids on the table. Obviously the Transat board would like a bidding war. As for the Onex story back from 1999, it would take too much time for me to give you the full story. Suffice it to say that pairing with AMR to take out AC and merge it with Canadian was probably a mistake - it rallied strong forces against it, which produced a highly leverage counter proposal that topped ONEX and eventually resulted in the latter to drop its bid. That triggered such a wild timeline for AC - Milton, merger, bankruptcy, ACE... I wonder how history would have unfolded if CP had simply gone under. Would AC have stumbled along the line somewhere, run afoul of governments and regulators in other ways... Who knows.
  6. dagger

    Westjet

    I'd guess that this will also be a big day for Air Canada shares
  7. dagger

    Westjet

    Here's he release https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/westjet-to-be-acquired-by-onex-847792523.html CALGARY, May 13, 2019 /CNW/ - WestJet Airlines Ltd. ("WestJet")(TSX: WJA) announced today it has entered into a definitive agreement that provides for its acquisition in an all-cash transaction. Under the terms of the agreement, Onex Corporation ("Onex")(TSX: ONEX) and its affiliated funds will acquire all outstanding shares of WestJet for $31.00 per share, after which WestJet will operate as a privately-held company. The purchase price represents a 67% premium to Friday's closing share price and a 63% premium to WestJet's 20-day volume-weighted average trading price. The transaction value is approximately $5 billion including assumed debt. "Since our first flight in 1996, WestJet has been singularly focused on providing better options for the Canadian travelling public and this transaction retains that commitment," said Clive Beddoe, WestJet's Founder and Chairman. "I am particularly pleased that WestJet will remain headquartered in Calgary and will continue to build on the success that our 14,000 WestJetters have created. Onex' aerospace experience, history of positive employee relations and long-term orientation makes it an ideal partner for WestJetters, and I am excited about our future." It's a fair bet Onex will turn around and sell part to a foreign investor - a lot neater than that foreign buyer operator being the largest shareholder in a diverse shareholder base.Yes, its 1999 all over again.
  8. It was suggested last week by LaPresse that Westjet made an unsolicited offer, Air Canada was asked to counter and did, and there might be other bidders like Sunwing/TUI. Beyond that I have heard nothing, and have no idea how the Competition Bureau would react. Transit got its first leased A321LR last week and is on the hook for a lot of new metal. Obviously, the Airbus aircraft are a better fit with AC/Rouge than with WS or any other Canadian operator, but you can undo those transactions since the airframe companies have huge order books. We might see a more complex transaction with multiple parties involved taking pieces of the carrier.
  9. AC is re-deploying some 737 MAX pilots, while putting them all through sim training of the particular conditions suspected in the two fatal crashes. I knew AC had a sim, but didn't realize it had the only two of any North American airline. Air Canada says it will reassign Max pilots as grounding of Boeing plane drags on Globe and Mail ERIC ATKINSTRANSPORTATION REPORTER Air Canada says it will redeploy some of its idled 420-odd 737 Max pilots to fly other planes as the grounding of the Boeing plane drags on. The global fleet of the 737 Max narrow-body planes remains parked as Boeing and aviation authorities work on a software fix and pilot training procedures after two fatal crashes of the aircraft since October. Boeing has halted deliveries of the planes and slowed production as it makes changes to the automated controls allegedly linked to the crashes in Ethiopia and Indonesia that killed a total of 346 people. Air Canada owns 24 of the 737 Max planes and was due to take delivery of another 12 by June. Transport Canada grounded the model domestically on March 13, forcing Air Canada and WestJet Airlines Ltd. to scramble to replace much of the lost capacity. Air Canada said on Monday the loss of 20 per cent of its narrow-body fleet that flew as many as 12,000 customers a day meant it had to cancel 1,600 mainline flights, but was able to retain 98-per-cent of its schedule. Calin Rovinescu, Air Canada’s chief executive officer, said the company has about 425 Max pilots who are spending their days training on a 737 Max simulator, but not flying customers. Some pilots who flew other planes in the past year – narrow-body Airbus or the Embraer 190 – will return to flying those models, Mr. Rovinescu said. Boeing has said the global groundings cost it US$1-billion so far but has not provided any timeline on when regulators will approve the 737 Max’s return. Air Canada and WestJet have retooled their schedules without the planes well into the busy summer travel season. Mr. Rovinescu said it could take several weeks to fully deploy the 737 Max once it is cleared by regulators. But because Air Canada is the only airline in Canada or the United States with a 737 Max simulator (it has two in Toronto), its pilots are “modelling some of the scenarios that occurred in the two accidents. So that has given us a leg up in terms of the readiness for the pilots to go back into flying these aircraft.” In the first quarter, Air Canada said it paid $920-million for six Boeing 737 Max 8 planes and one 787-9. “Our final decision on returning the Max to service will be based on our own safety assessment following the lifting of government safety notices and the approval of the software modification and training protocol,” Mr. Rovinescu said on a first-quarter earnings conference call with analysts on Monday. For the three months ending March 31, Air Canada beat market expectations and posted a profit of $345-million, or $1.26 a diluted share, compared with a loss of $203-million (74 cents) in the same period a year earlier. Profit on an adjusted basis was $17-million (6 cents), up from a loss of $26-million (10 cents) in the first quarter of 2018. Analysts expected an adjusted loss of 17 cents a share. The results were lifted by the recent purchase of the Aeroplan loyalty card company and a new agreement with Chorus Aviation for additional flight capacity. Air Canada’s cash liquidity hit a record of $6.9-billion at the quarter’s end. Passenger revenues rose by 9.4 per cent to $3.8-billion. “We achieved these results in a quarter where we faced extremely severe weather events early in the quarter, literally from coast to coast, and the first 18 days of the Max grounding at the end of the quarter,” Mr. Rovinescu said. Walter Spracklin, a stock analyst with Royal Bank of Canada, noted Air Canada provided no update to its 2019 guidance, which it suspended in March due to the 737 Max groundings. For his outlook purposes, he is assuming the planes will not return in 2019. But he said the good financial results despite the first quarter’s bad weather and 737 Max loss highlighted Air Canada’s operational and financial resiliency. The stock is rising as markets express relief the 737 Max problems are not “overly severe” and measures to mitigate the challenges are in place, he said in a note to clients.
  10. I found this preview of this week's AC and WS Q1 result interesting for what Ben Cherniavsky admitted. I don't know how they can advise clients when they admit they don't really know what they are doing. If WS beats the street by the same margin AC did, the analyst community might as well go off and cover the Bitcoin market. Then again, I've probably had less faith in Ben Cherniavsky than most. He's always preferred the simpler modelling he can do with Westjet - at least when it had a single fleet type and simple product design. But even WS is becoming a more complex business to model successfully. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-grounding-of-the-boeing-737-max-will-have-an-impact-on-first-quarter/ Montreal-based Air Canada, slated to report on Monday morning, is expected to post a loss of 17 cents a share and revenue of $4.4-billion, according to Refinitiv estimates. Air Canada’s share price has risen by 28 per cent this year on the Toronto Stock Exchange. WestJet of Calgary, which reports on Tuesday, is expected to post per-share profit of 31 cents and revenue of $1.28-billion, according to Refinitiv. WestJet’s share price has fallen by 11 per cent since March 1, but is up by 4 per cent this year. Ben Cherniavsky, an analyst with Raymond James, said forecasting airline financial results is a complex and difficult task that is rarely done accurately. As an example, he said Air Canada’s 2018 operating profit of $1.17-billion was 20 per cent less than his forecast and 30 per cent below the analyst consensus. Meanwhile, the stock price has almost doubled.“ Over the 20 years that we have covered Air Canada and WestJet, our models for these companies have morphed into highly complex, hugely sophisticated, data-rich predictive tools designed to facilitate an analysis of the countless variables that impact the business,” he said. “But with the massive number of inputs that we can drive into the model also comes a massive amount of forecast error that can get compounded in the process. “We must be honest with ourselves and our clients: We don’t have a tremendous amount of confidence in the precision of our forecasts,” he said. Even with the Max planes out of the picture till at least mid-summer, Mr. Cherniavsky sees a constant theme for Canadian airlines over the past five years: too many planes for too few travellers. This is the cause of both airlines’ lagging returns and margins, he said. “With the economy looking progressively tenuous and oil prices back on the rise, we expect this financial underperformance of Canada’s airlines will persist until this capacity issue is addressed,” he said.
  11. Only in a sense that Google places AC's headquarters at the end of Cote Vertu Blvd in St-Laurent. You have to appreciate that for many francophone nationalists, Air Canada is still Canadian, the old English speaking Crown corp. That's the only baggage AC can't ever lose in those circles. The image has mellowed a bit over the past five decades or so when top Air Canada executives - and some union leaders for that matter - couldn't speak a word of French, not even bonjour. I'm going back before Pierre Jeanniot. Of course, if Air Canada was ever allowed to move its HQ to Toronto, there would be howls of indignation...
  12. Probably, but the question is to what end. They already get best-customer pricing, they get configurations they want, swap rights, options, best of everything in fact. They have more parts commonality than most, and because of their size, they have all the fleet financing benefits of scale. I'm not saying they are buying the A220, maybe they just wanted to piss off Boeing executives. Sometimes, gestures like this are about next to nothing except to give a few people a junket. Now, if an A220-500 comes around, ask me again.
  13. Okay, not the aircraft but the sim, sharp looking. https://twitter.com/rvr600/status/1118580015447384064
  14. AC has a MAX simulator because it is an entirely new fleet type for it. Does WS? Sunwing? Or will they have to go elsewhere for sim time? Anyone?
  15. In comments to Reuters, Canadian Transport Minister Marc Garneau said computer-based training, which some pilots had received to transition from older versions of Boeing's 737 to the latest 737 MAX, would not go far enough to satisfy Canada. "It's not going to be a question of pulling out an iPad and spending an hour on it," he said in Montreal. "Simulators are the very best way, from a training point of view, to go over exactly what could happen in a real way and to react properly to it." Garneua's comments came after a draft report from a U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) appointed board recommended additional training without requiring a simulator. Canada's call for obligatory training time illustrates the challenges faced by the FAA panel, which includes foreign regulators, in securing a common global blueprint for the ungrounding of the 737 MAX. The FAA declined to comment. Garneau said the training must include time in a simulator so pilots can rehearse the circumstances of the Lion Air crash in Indonesia last October. In that crash as well as the Ethiopian Airlines disaster, pilots lost control of the planes soon after taking off. Investigators are focused in part on an anti-stall system called the MCAS, or maneuvering characteristics augmentation system, which can repeatedly push the plane's nose down. Canada already took measures on pilot training following the Lion Air crash, working with Canadian MAX operators WestJet Airlines, Air Canada and Sunwing to require a five-step memorized pilot checklist for runaway stabilizer. United Airlines, which owns 14 MAX, said it does not currently plan to add simulator training to its regime, which already requires pilots to memorize steps for runaway stabilizer. "But obviously, if federal - if the regulatory authorities request that as added training, we will comply with that request," United's Chief Operating Officer Gregory Hart said on a conference call on Wednesday.