dagger

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dagger last won the day on June 12 2016

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  1. https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/air-canada-seeking-credit-card-partner-for-new-loyalty-program/article36296202/ Canada's largest airline will offer what it calls an ultralow-cost fare on selective flights and expand its low-cost Rouge network to regional routes in Canada, Air Canada executives said in presentations Tuesday to investors and analysts. "The low-fare option that is now going to be at our disposal definitely is in our back pocket for strategic use," said Ben Smith, the carrier's president of passenger airlines. "That is definitely going to be deployed strategically." It won't be available on all flights, he said, but "where we need to do it for market reasons and competitive reasons, that's where we'll deploy it." It's one potential response to the arrival of Canada Jetlines Ltd. and the as-yet unnamed ULCC being planned by WestJet Airlines Ltd., both of which are scheduled to start service next summer, joining Flair Airlines Ltd., which has already begun flying. The airline said in an update to its financial targets that it plans to generate free cash flow of $2-billion to $3-billion between 2018 and 2020, and that the creation of its own loyalty program when it terminates the Aeroplan system in 2020 will generate $2-billion to $2.5-billion in net present value over a 15-year period. The startup costs for the loyalty program will amount to $85-million, chief financial officer Michael Rousseau said.
  2. Sept. 18, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The US Department of Commerce is due next Monday to hand down its preliminary decision on whether to impose tariffs on Bombardier’s C Series sold to Delta Air Lines. The price dumping complaint, filed by Boeing earlier this year, cleared the US International Trade Commission on a 5-0 vote. The ITC found probable cause (my words) to proceed with the complaint. From there, investigation shifted to the DOC. The details are complex and need not be recapped here. What is important are the next steps, assuming—as widely expected—DOC sides with Boeing. The politics Two weeks ago, it was revealed Boeing walked away from negotiations with the Canadian government to resolve the issue. Last week, it was revealed UK Prime Minister Theresa May talked with President Donald Trump about the complaint. More discussions are to follow. It may be noteworthy, if accurate, that Boeing may be coming back to the table. See the last paragraph in this Sept. 12 article from The Global and Mail. One industry observer wrote that the UK is coming to the table too little, too late. This is a totally uninformed position. LNC has known since July something was up with the UK, which is a purchaser of Boeing military goods. In fact, it was announced at the Paris Air Show agreed to purchase 50 Apache helicopters. I don’t know the current status of this deal, but just raising the issue, as did the Ulster Unionist Party of Northern Ireland, has all kinds of implications. It was suggested to me in July that the UK (and May specifically) was gearing up and the UK could potentially cancel Boeing contracts or otherwise act. Why is the involvement of the Ulster Unionist Party important? The C Series wings are produced at Bombardier’s Northern Ireland factory and it is the biggest employer in this perpetually depressed area. These are also high-paying jobs. More to the point, May barely survived a June snap election. She remained in office through forming a coalition government. The swing political party? The Ulster Unionist Party. If May is unsuccessful in getting Boeing, somehow, to drop this complaint, could the Ulster party bolt, in which case the May government collapses? Does Boeing want to be responsible for this? Does Donald Trump want to lose a kindred spirit? The scenarios are ripe for the imagination. Next Steps Irrespective of the politics, here are the possibilities of what’s next, on the assumption that no settlement is reached in the next week and Commerce rules in Boeing’s favor next Monday. Tariffs are imposed on a per-airplane delivered basis. The tariffs will be escrowed while appeals are pending. The first airplane is scheduled for delivery in April. An appeal of the DOC decision may be made to US Federal District Court in Washington (DC). But, somewhat exquisitely, this isn’t the only place. An appeal could be filed with the US Court of International Trade. According to this article in Forbes, the CIT is a much tougher place to win a complaint than the US ITC or Commerce. The government of Canada can appeal the decision to (of all places) NAFTA. A review board is made up of (get this) Mexico, Canada and the US. Thanks to President Trump threatening to pull out of NAFTA and otherwise insulting Mexicans, Mexico, its president, Canada and dismissively its premier, some people are chortling over the prospect of NAFTA adjudicating an appeal. If this weren’t bad enough, the DOC decision can be appealed to (drum roll) the World Trade Organization. US tariffs are higher than those allowed by the WTO, of which the US is a member. If, by the time the appeal wound through the WTO, and if it were upheld, the WTO could reduce the tariffs imposed by Commerce. As we all know from the Airbus-Boeing proceedings, it can take years and years for a final outcome at the WTO. The next phase is to assess the “injury” to Boeing. The timeline is next year. Withdrawing from NAFTA Trump vowed to withdraw from NAFTA, or at least renegotiate its terms. He can sign an executive order withdrawing from NAFTA. Withdrawal would moot an appeal to NAFTA, but there is a line of thinking that Congress must ratify the withdrawal because of treaty obligations. Whether Congress would go along is questionable. In the meantime, NAFTA continues. This case is far from over if a settlement of some kind isn’t reached. If it continues, it will remain fodder for the media (and enrichment for the lawyers) for years to come.
  3. They have no case but that won't stop the US from recommended preliminary anti dumping duties. Here's Scott's newest article on the case - he thinks it's BS, too - outlining likely next steps. https://leehamnews.com/2017/09/18/pontifications-next-steps-boeing-bombardier-trade-complaint/#more-24751
  4. With Trump cozying up to the Democrats, those issues that were added are precisely what a Democratic Congress would need to justify a renewed trade agreement. That's why they were added. They are throwaway issues for this Congressional term, and if a deal is struck before the 2018 elections, they won't be part of it except a bit of labour and environment aimed at the lowest Mexican standards. But if talks drag, and the Democrats are essential for approving a new deal in 2019 and beyond. Certainly, putting climate change and labour rights into a new deal dovetails perfectly with what the Democratic leadership in Congress is advocating. You can't add these things to the talks after the fact, you have to have them on the table at the start of the process. A progressive trade deal would be a new concept that the Democrats would use to distinguish their stand on trade from that of the past.
  5. Scott Hamilton of LeeHam will tell you the same. Boeing's case is 100% BS, more a fear of the mythical CS500, than any concern about the CS100 or CS300. But being concerned about the CS500 means making sure Bombardier fails with the smaller planes.
  6. I don't know what this means, but the Wall Street Journal is reporting that the US now won't pull out of the Paris Climate Accord.
  7. Irma

    I don't know if the Wings Journal is embellishing things, but the story of that AC rescue flight supposedly had a more dramatic twist than CTV reported. The Air Canada jet that landed on Sunday morning had been arranged as a relief flight that brought engineers to the island. The crew had to stay overnight, and they became aware that Canadian families were desperate to return. When the plane captain learned that airport officials were turning away passengers, he told his crew that they would make manual preparations to depart and would block the runway until passengers were allowed to board. Airport officials had no other choice but to allow the Murphy family and other passengers to return to Toronto; otherwise, the Air Canada jetliner would be in the way of incoming flights that were bringing supplies and relief workers.
  8. Air Canada, pilots reach deal for more aircraft in low-cost Rouge unit An Air Canada Rouge plane prepares for a flight to Las Vegas at Vancouver International Airport in Richmond, B.C., on Monday, April 28, 2014. Air Canada has reached a deal with its pilots that will allow the airline to increase the number of aircraft operating in its low-cost Rouge unit. Air Canada said in a news release that the Air Canada Pilots Association, which represents 3,500 pilots, agreed to amendments to the current 10-year labour deal that will allow the company to improve flexibility and lower costs. "These amendments recognize the valuable contribution of our pilots and provide additional flexibility and cost competitiveness that further strengthen Air Canada's ability to compete effectively," Ben Smith, Air Canada's president of passenger airlines, said in a statement. The agreement permits Air Canada to expand the number of narrow-bodied planes in the Rouge fleet as it expands its mainline fleet. Under the initial agreement establishing Rouge as Air Canada's low-cost arm, Rouge was limited to a maximum of 50 planes. Air Canada is bumping up against that limit with the current Rouge fleet at 49. The current Rouge fleet includes 25 Airbus narrow-body planes, while Air Canada's mainline fleet includes 75 narrow bodies in the Airbus A320 family. Air Canada will begin taking delivery of 61 Boeing 737 Max narrow-bodied planes later this year. Bombardier Inc. is scheduled to begin delivering 45 CS300 narrow bodies in 2019. Mr. Smith said on the carrier's fourth-quarter financial results conference call earlier this year that the last plane was scheduled to be added to Rouge before the summer of 2018. He said on that call that Air Canada was in early discussions with its pilots about expanding Rouge. "They have the capacity to fly some domestic routes, so maybe an expansion would them to fly–especially in the summer–routes that are more visiting friends and relatives type routes," said airline industry analyst Cameron Doerksen, who follows the company for National Bank. The arrival of new Boeing 787 wide-bodied aircraft in recent years has fuelled an expansion of Air Canada's network, mainly to foreign markets. Canada is in the midst of an air travel boom that may enable Air Canada to continue expanding and not retire older airplanes as the new narrow bodies arrived during the next several years. The airline carried a record number of passengers in a single day earlier this year. "Demand for air travel seems pretty strong right now, you just have to look at WestJet's traffic numbers yesterday: all-time record for the month of August," Mr. Doerksen said. Kym Robertson, a spokeswoman for the Air Canada Pilots Association, said the amendments to the deal include a new pension plan for pilots hired after 2012 that is a multi-employer plan that improves on the existing defined contribution plan. Pilots also won improvements in benefits, scheduling and working conditions, Ms. Robertson said. "The improvements were achieved in part in exchange for allowing growth of the Air Canada Rouge narrow body fleet," she said. Air Canada said on its second-quarter financial results conference call last month that traffic grew 13.6 per cent in the quarter, compared with a 13.5 per cent increase in capacity. It also said that capacity growth will begin to slow. The 10-year, no-strike deal that Air Canada signed with its pilots in 2014 was based in part on the airline growing, which would provide more opportunities for pilots to move up the ranks. The carrier said it will deploy its new Boeing 737-800 planes next summer on Toronto-Shannon and Montreal-Dublin routes. Rouge has generally displaced Air Canada mainline service on leisure routes, where travellers are most sensitive to price, including such flights as Vancouver-Honolulu, Calgary-Las Vegas and Toronto-Budapest. But it also operates some domestic flights "and we have no restriction on deploying Rouge domestically if that's what we decide to do," Air Canada chief executive officer Calin Rovinescu said on the ocmpany's first-quarter conference call earlier this year.
  9. Since this was a no strike/no lockout reopener, there was no leverage for concessions from either side. Maybe someone can say what was given (if anything) and what was got?
  10. I doubt this gets on the NAFTA list, probably heading to the WTO where any duties will likely get thrown out. Since the WTO just gave Boeing a big win on its Washington State subsidies. But Prime Minister May of the UK has taken up the case in behalf of North Ireland, and so this is going to become a bigger issue still. As for the other items on the wish list, they were added specifically for the Democrats, who may control the House as of January 2019. These negotiations will probably still be going on in 2019, and the Liberals have created a vision of a progressive trade deal tailored to the current policy of the Democratic leadership. Or the talks were never supposed to reach a new agreement, Trump will try to withdraw the US from NAFTA and a year from now, Congress and the White House will be before the US Supreme Court arguing that only Congress can withdraw the US from a trade agreement.
  11. The consensus of aviation analysts is that the Boeing complaint has no foundation but the US govt will apply duties anyway, because a lot of trade protectionism is BS. The view is that Boeing feels it made a mistake not cutting off Airbus when it was a new venture, and that the CSeries is a threat - not the CS100 or even the CS300, but the possible stretch to a CS500.
  12. Air Canada Concludes "Win-Win" Amendments to Long-Term Collective Agreement with Pilots MONTREAL, Sept. 12, 2017 /CNW Telbec/ - Air Canada said today it has successfully concluded amendments to its existing long-term labour agreement with its 3,500 pilots represented by the Air Canada Pilots Association (ACPA). The amendments to the ten-year agreement reached in October 2014 provide added commercial and operational flexibility as well as improved cost competitiveness while also providing attractive career growth opportunities and other advantages for its pilots. "These amendments recognize the valuable contribution of our pilots and provide additional flexibility and cost competitiveness that further strengthen Air Canada's ability to compete effectively in today's global competitive environment," said Benjamin Smith, President, Passenger Airlines at Air Canada. "I thank our respective teams for their insights and productive discussions enabling us to 'Win as One Air Canada'."
  13. So in today's CSeries new, Boeing has broken off talks with the Canadian government over a possible CSeries settlement. The US has approved F 18 Super Hornet sales to Canada - that are now on hold. And Bombardier is out with some real performance specs - compared to the pre-production numbers, fuel burn improvement for the CS100 is in the vicinity of 0.5% and for the CS300, almost 3% (which is rather astounding). AC must be really happy with this news. Amounts to $800,000 in fuel savings per plane over the projected life of the plane, at current fuel prices.
  14. If I were thinking of a beach holiday this winter, I'd watch how Irma affects hotel capacity along its path. If it causes significant damage to the north Dominican Republic and Florida Gold Coast and Keys, on top of the St. Martin damage, consider booking a trip especially early. You can expect higher prices throughout the sun and sand belt.
  15. Lots of hotel damage, too.