Trader

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Everything posted by Trader

  1. And no discussion yet in the media or political arena about the death toll that results from a devastated economy. There were 10,000 suicides in the US attributable to the meltdown in 2008, as people lose jobs the death toll from stress rises, as more people are pushed into poverty the deaths from poorer nutrition etc. That is not to say that we toss out the measures that are being taken, but a clear discourse on the real effects and the 'other' deaths that will occur should be had and understood. I get a feeling that people believe the governments will step in and make it all better! Then tonight, Alberta estimating an unemployment rate of 25% (great depression numbers) and national rates of 15%. Those are massive and the social upheaval will be as large.
  2. Some random thoughts: 1. The best estimates are that 50-75% of all people will come down with the virus. The concept of flattening the curve is to spread that out, over time, so that the health care system is not over run. So how are we 'being' safe by not having aircrew (or others) work etc? 2. The worlds infectious disease experts are saying that while they cannot confirm, at the moment, that a person cannot get the virus a second time all of their experience and knowledge suggest that will be the case and once you recover you will not be susceptible to re-infection. So it is important to know if you have been infected previously. There are many people who have been sick, mildly or with few symptoms, but cannot determine if it was with Covid. So we could well have significant numbers of people self-isolating for no reason when they could be working or helping in their communities. There seems to very little emphasis yet on testing and, as importantly, finding a test for anti-bodies in blood.
  3. If the recovery doesn't start until September there won't be much of an economy to support airlines in general.
  4. Still no word from the airport authorities other than requests for cash. No layoffs announced there yet. NavCan - CEO makes close to $700,000, no news of executive wage cuts (as elsewhere). No layoffs.
  5. 691 pilots at WestJet/Swoop on lay-off notice. Bad times indeed.
  6. The Fed should also be taking strict action with Nav Canada and the Airport Authorities as I suspect they will follow the same MO as in the past and demand payment or even require pre-payment.
  7. Flair, Cdn North etc. are small, all domestic and have the ability to be nimble and flexible. If anyone is going to take a haircut it will be AC and WJ who won't disappear but will, depending on the length of the situation, be deeply affected especially in the international flying. Swoop, who must be hemorrhaging money, is an easy sacrifice for Onex. Sunwing, who at the moment are not refunding trips (cause it would be negative cashflow), will have to cut back severely and then hope the summer flying in Europe materializes. What will be most interesting is how the Feds (and provinces in some cases) handle supporting the airlines and other businesses.
  8. Thanks for reminding me that I am getting old!
  9. AC and WJ had the same issue. Very sophisticated group mimicking the sites of airlines around the world and popping up a message telling passengers to call a number to help book. They then purchase a ticket for the passenger but inflate the price and keep the difference! Slick since the person actually flies and no complaints generated.
  10. When you look at the actual documents Flair was given 7 days notice of termination, months after the $200,000 had been paid. It was a strong arm tactic over another dispute which is why the ruling came down the way it did.
  11. Of course simulators are also not designed to replicate flight outside the normal flight regime. In the case of using manual trim when the forces are so great that it is close to or impossible to move you are again outside the normal flight regime. Which is why attempting the ‘roller coaster’ in the sim will not come close to replicating the actual aircraft. The NY Times article mentioned above discusses the sims not ‘accurately reflecting the aircraft’ but that had to do with indications the pilots (Lion and Ethiopian) were dealing with (such as sticker shaker and other earnings) which could not be duplicated in the sim.
  12. Understatement for sure! Considering that Boeing also wants a common type rating (cost savings for airlines) then these types of differences were, at best, trained by an online course. A significant difference such as this should be required to have specific training in GS and in the SIM to emphasize the new operation of the system and break the habits, ingrained in training on the other 737 models. I don't fly the MAX but every pilot I know who does said the 'transition course' (ground school only) say it was woefully inadequate considering the differences. So, if the normal STAB BRAKE function in not available on the MAX what other 'adjustments' were made? Systems engineers will design a system but can't envision every single scenario or envision how a computer may interact with that system in all scenarios. They then rely on reverting to the pilot to intervene. How can a pilot intervene if they don't understand that system and have not been trained to deal with system failure scenarios?
  13. Using the pickle switches should stop the movement, override and allow the trim to move in the pilot selected direction. When released I presume that the MCAS would then drive it in the direction it was attempting previously. Pilot selection of the pickle switches again would then stop that movement. [gripping the main trim wheel is also an option to stop movement] At some point the pilot should use the stab trim cutout with the result that all trim would be be manual. On the NG control column movement in the opposite direction of the main electric or autopilot trim should cause a trim cutout. Not sure if that exists on the Max. So it seems to me that the current (and very old) system of of using the CUTOUT when there is a trim runaway should work. As a guess - either the pilots did not use the CUTOUT or they did and the MCAS system was not shutdown via that action. Or, the possibility that the different systems 'fought' each other?
  14. Sunwings 'cadet' program does not come close to the cadet programs in Europe or the Middle East where cadets will spend years in sophisticated training programs before moving online and then will continue through a system of sim and line training. Even after all of that, in my experience, they were poor first officers. They were 'sufficient' and 'legal' and going from ILS to ILS presented few issues. But decision making and support during critical times, even with something as straightforward as a go-around, was often close to non-existant. A true emergency and I would not want one in the right seat. With enough time in the right seat - 5 years or so - their performance improved to a point where I would term them a competent pilot. Taking students from a University program and adding a bit of extra sim training will most certainly not produce qualified first officers and based on the comments from friends at Sunwing the cadets are very weak. All anecdotal I agree, but not sure I would believe the airlines either, whose motivation is to put pilot bums in seats.
  15. The big difference when comparing YYZ to ORD or ATL is that the parallel runways at the those US airports have an taxiway running between the two. YYZ does not and that was one of the most concerning aspects with the TSB.
  16. With the 24's there is no taxiway in between (too close together) and I am guessing that is where most of the incidents occur. Even something as basic as red flashing taxiway lights would help.
  17. Sunwing has an upgrade failure rate closing in on 50%. They have smartened up and begun interviewing experienced captains, hiring them as FO's with the knowledge that they will upgrade quickly. The last several ground schools those hires have been transferred directly into the left seat during initial training. FO's will upgrade when their experience allows Flair, within its CBA, has the ability to hire DEC's and has begun that. Again, FO's will upgrade when hours, experience and, most importantly, ability allow. If a company can remain nimble and have the ability to hire pilots in the seat they require they will find candidates. The biggest danger, in my opinion, is having a situation where you upgrade a relatively inexperienced FO into the left seat and have them fly with a very inexperienced FO. That is the situation that will soon rear its head for many companies and is the one that has to be avoided. The problem is compounded by, dare I say it, the millennial attitude that they deserve that left seat regardless of experience or, in some cases, performance. One other aspect to dealing with this training. Most expat pilots on this forum will likely agree that the "Command Course" and its requirements at airlines outside Canada are rigorous and effective. Airlines in Canada will have to adopt the same and that takes time and money.
  18. CUPE couldn't care less about the handful of FA's at Flair. However, they have a strong interest in negotiations at WJ and failing to show 'strength' in the Flair talks would be a problem. Their tactics have been somewhat underhanded as they lead the flight attendants to make decisions based on misinformation or lack of information. When the 30% pay decrease was discussed the flight attendants were told it was meant for them and not just the new hires because CUPE has an agenda and it was clear that if the current FA's would not take a pay cut they would not vote against the contract. They could not get answers because it didn't make sense to CUPE to provide them.
  19. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/drunk-driving-laws-decriminalize-2018-changes-police-licence-1.4468021 Many more articles can be found. There are certainly two sides to the argument.
  20. Agree Kip - they have not completely thought out how to deal with driving aspect. If fact, a judge in my local area recently lamented that the number of drunk driver cases he is seeing has never been so high! It seems people don't care or believe it is their 'right' to smoke or drink and then drive. There are so many cases clogging the legal system in Alberta that they are decriminalizing drunk driving. Wonderful. But lets ban guns! They are the real problem.
  21. I'm not a smoker (of any kind) but it will be interesting to see if this holds. I can't see how it is legal for a company to ban something that you do on your own time - provided you are not under the influence when you show up for work (or the legal definition of influence). SUppose someone could say it is their religious right
  22. I had this dozens of times over the last 10 years. Each time we would call Medlink (doctor) and each time they had the pax removed until they had at least 12 hours symptom free (no vomiting). It happened so often that there was always the thought to not bother making the call and simply have the person offloaded. I always did make the call though for this exact reason - if a doctor advised against travel you have covered yourself, your crew, your airline AND looked after the best interest of the passenger.