Don Hudson

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  1. Hi AIP; First, it isn't about the popularity of posts that counts . If there is disagreement on matters of serious public interest and not merely an exchange of opinions and cocktail chatter, then when challenged, the parties owe each other evidence that supports their expressed views. The evidence as expressed by experts on the subject of masks is strong and widely available/inspectable by all parties regardless of attitudes towards such prophylactics. Wearing a mask in indoor locations where there are other people and outdoor locations where social distancing is not possible is shown to reduce transmission of the virus, as does frequent, proper washing of hands. People are free to disagree of course, even with airlines' policy on masks, but as you know, they presently don't get to travel if they refuse to comply. People largely accept this new, and appropriate rule of public behaviour. Don't wear the seatbelt when in a car, smoke in a non-smoking area, don't wear a helmet on a motorcycle, drink/get-high and drive, dump garbage or sewage in public areas, falsify a pilot's licence or aircraft maintenance records? All of these issues are both serious public safety matters and settled regulatory matters. Violate them, and risk the fine and/or jail time. It is fact, that wearing a mask is more about other people than about oneself. Would you not want your doctor, your surgeon and the nursing staff to wear a mask during operations? Why is that okay, when wearing a mask to limit the spread of COVID-19 is not? There is no evidence and no counterexamples that support not wearing a mask in the above circumstances, during this public health issue. Just like honey-badger, coronavirus don't care.
  2. The -800 is certified to land with a 15kt tailwind, so how the landing distance was calculated and briefed in the pre-descent phase, what the actual wind was at, say, 100ft and what the touchdown point was are all of interest. Less fatalities than the previous overrun accident, by the same type, on this runway ten years ago -
  3. J.O., rudder, OT so I won't quote here but your points are expanded upon here.
  4. Following on your post, Marshall, bit more info: Wiring Fixes Among Changes FAA Will Require Before MAX Can Return Sean Broderick August 03, 2020 Credit: Boeing WASHINGTON—The FAA’s proposed steps for operators to clear Boeing 737 MAXs for service include separating wire bundles deemed to be noncompliant with regulations and conducting “readiness” flights to ensure the long-grounded aircraft are airworthy, a draft notice of proposed rulemaking (NPRM) made public Aug. 3 reveals. The wire-bundle issue, discovered during regulators’ comprehensive review of the MAX’s design and certification, concerns horizontal stabilizer trim arm and control wiring that runs the length of the aircraft. The FAA found that the wiring needs to be separated in 12 places to meet 2007 regulatory changes put in place to prevent wiring failures from creating hazards. The agency ordered Boeing to fix the issue on new-production MAXs and develop instructions for in-service aircraft. Many MAX operators planned to take advantage of the ongoing grounding and make the wiring changes before returning their MAXs to revenue flying, using service instructions Boeing issued on June 10. What was not clear: whether the FAA would require operators to address the issue before the MAXs flew again or give them the flexibility of a longer window for compliance, which is typical for many airworthiness directives. The NPRM confirms that the wiring work is one of several steps that must be completed on each existing MAX before returning to revenue service. Because Boeing made the in-service modification work package available nearly two months ago and the FAA tentatively approved its contents, the agency’s wiring mandate is not expected to add time to MAX return-to-service preparation. Updating MAX wiring, while an important regulatory compliance issue, is an ancillary change in the package of upgrades that will end what will likely be an 18-month-plus fleet grounding. The major changes are installing updated flight control computer (FCC) software that modifies the MAX’s maneuvering characteristics augmentation system (MCAS); new “MAX Display System” software that gives pilots more information on anomalies; and putting pilots through new, updated training. MCAS, implicated as a central factor in two fatal 737 MAX 8 accidents that led regulators to ground the model in March 2019, commands automatic horizontal stabilizer inputs to help the MAX handle like its 737 Next Generation predecessor. The software changes ensure MCAS functions as intended, but does not confuse or overwhelm pilots, and only activates when intended. Its original design, which relied on data from a single angle of attack (AOA) sensor, left it susceptible to a single-point failure. Boeing assumed pilots would recognize and react to unneeded MCAS inputs quickly, but the two MAX accidents, Lion Air Flight 610 in October 2018 and Lion Air Flight 302 in March 2019, showed the company was wrong. The NPRM and a related FAA summary of its MAX review emphasize that work still remains. The largest piece is having regulators and line pilots validate proposed changes to MAX pilot training. A Joint Operations Evaluation Board (JOEB) review, including participation from Brazilian, Canadian, European, and U.S. pilots and regulators, must be done, followed by an FAA-led Flight Standardization Board (FSB) report that will establish minimum training curriculum for MAX pilots. COVID-19 pandemic-related travel restrictions have presented issues for the JOEB work, which would normally be done in one location. The FAA on July 21 said “final planning is underway” for the JOEB and FSB pilot evaluations but did not offer details on timing. Among the major training changes expected to be adopted: mandatory simulator sessions for all prospective MAX pilots. Previously, pilots with 737 type ratings could transition to the MAX following computer-based differences training. The FAA also is proposing changes to seven non-normal checklists (NNCs): runaway stabilizer; stabilizer trim inoperative; airspeed unreliable; altitude disagree; AOA disagree; speed trim fail; and horizontal stabilizer out of trim. Some changes are linked to the FCC modifications, while others stem from human factors research that found problems with their language or logic. It also is adding an eighth NNC, indicated airspeed disagree, to the airplane flight manual. The FAA’s analysis broke the MAX safety issues into seven categories: MCAS relying on a single AOA sensor; MCAS’s repetitive commands; MCAS’s stabilizer-trim adjustment authority; flight crew recognition and response; how the MAX alerted pilots of an AOA disagree; other possible horizontal stabilizer failures; and MCAS-related maintenance procedures. FAA’s directive and the pending training plan addresses each of them. A required “readiness flight” will validate the software upgrades on each aircraft. Fixes to the single-AOA sensor issue include the updated FCC software “to eliminate MCAS reliance on a single AOA sensor signal by using both AOA sensor inputs and changing flight control laws to safeguard against MCAS activation due to a failed or erroneous AOA sensor,” the FAA said. Neither the NPRM nor the FAA summary discuss adding additional AOA sensors. MAX training will be finalized separately and will include a public-comment period. Once the training program is approved, the FAA will issue an airworthiness directive mandating the return-to-service steps. The agency is not working with a time line. The NPRM is in final pre-publication stages and should be out in the coming days. It stipulates a 45-day comment period, meaning the FAA will not publish a final version until mid-September at the earliest. MAX operators have said they will need at least a month, and likely more, to upgrade their MAXs, ensure they are ready to fly following extended stints on the ground, work them back into flight schedules, and train pilots. Sean Broderick Senior Air Transport & Safety Editor Sean Broderick covers aviation safety, MRO, and the airline business from Aviation Week Network's Washington, D.C. office.
  5. Alert - 20200802 Victoria increases coronavirus lockdowns, declares ‘state of disaster’ Premier Daniel Andrews has placed Victoria in stage four lockdown. Photo: AAP Photo: AAP Josh Butler Political Editor Share Tweet Share Reddit Pin Email Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews has bowed to the realities of his state’s spiralling coronavirus infections and introduced the nation’s toughest lockdown restrictions. More important announcements are on the way for Victoria on Monday also, with Mr Andrews saying incoming rules for specific industries will force some businesses to close, and others to slow down operations. The state recorded 671 new cases on Sunday, and seven more elderly Victorians have died. Six of the fatalities were connected to virus outbreaks in aged-care homes. On Sunday, Mr Andrews declared a “state of disaster” will be in place from 6pm and metro areas will be put under stage four lockdown restrictions, including a strict night-time curfew. “Absolutely straight up … if we don’t make these changes we are not going to get through this,” he said. Victorian students will return to “flexible and remote learning” from Wednesday, with a pupil-free day declared for Tuesday. Statement on Melbourne moving to Stage 4 restrictions: — Dan Andrews (@DanielAndrewsMP) August 2, 2020 Mr Andrews said the advice had been that if the government did not change tactics now, Victoria would continue to see cases growing and would need to be under the current rules until Christmas. Instead, a tougher stage four lockdown will be in place for six weeks. “Six weeks versus a slower strategy … that takes up to six months, I’m not prepared to accept that,” Mr Andrews said. These are very significant steps – they’re not taken lightly.’’ Victoria’s chief health officer Brett Sutton was asked if a further six-week lockdown would be enough to curb the state’s issues. “I hope so. It is entirely contingent on everyone in Victoria to make sure it is enough,” he said. “If we do the things we know work … six weeks should be enough.” Prime Minister Scott Morrison posted a message to his Facebook and Instagram accounts on Sunday night that “today is a tough day for Victorians”. “Australians all around the country are backing you in, because we all know for Australia to succeed, we need Victoria to get through this,” he posted. Mr Andrews has been under mounting pressure to further lock down Victoria as the previous stay-home orders and mandatory face mask restrictions fail to curb the steepening curve of new infections. The Premier confirmed stage four lockdown restrictions for metro areas would include stopping people going further than five kilometres from their homes and limiting exercise to one hour per day. Only one person per household will be allowed to go shopping. From 8pm on Sunday, a curfew will exist in metropolitan Melbourne. People will only be allowed out of home between 8pm and 5am to go to work, or give and receive care. “Going to a mate’s place, going and visiting friends, being out and about for no good reason … that will spread the virus,” Mr Andrews said. From midnight on Wednesday, regional areas will be moved to stage three. “We cannot let this virus tear through regional aged care in the way it has with private-sector aged care in Melbourne,” Mr Andrews said. “We cannot let it mean more Victorians in hospital beds. More Victorians hooked up to machines just to breathe. And more Victorians – more grandparents, parents, sons, daughters, partners and loved ones – choked to death by an invisible enemy.’’ It means non-essential businesses such as restaurants, gyms and bars must close from midnight on Wednesday. The new stage four lockdown restrictions for Melbourne include: From Sunday, an 8pm-5am curfew in Melbourne. “The only reasons to leave home during these hours will be work, medical care and caregiving,” Mr Andrews said People will be limited to staying within five kilometres of their home Only one person, per household, per day will be allowed to go shopping Exercise will be limited to a maximum of one hour per day and no more than five kilometres from your home, with a group size limited to a maximum of two – “you and one other person – whether you live with them or not.” TAFE and uni study must be done remotely From Wednesday at 11.59pm, weddings in Melbourne cannot occur. From 11.59pm on Wednesday, regional Victoria is also returning to its stage three ‘stay home’ orders, meaning people must remain in their house unless going out for essential shopping, care and caregiving, daily exercise, and work or study. Regional businesses will also be affected, with food businesses restricted to delivery and takeaway. Beauty and personal services, entertainment and cultural venues, and community sport will have to close. Statement on regional Victoria moving to Stage 3 restrictions: — Dan Andrews (@DanielAndrewsMP) August 2, 2020 Mr Andrews said Mitchell Shire, which was previously linked with the Melbourne restrictions, will now be classed among the rules for regional Victoria. Melbourne was placed into lockdown for a second time on July 9, as cases began to balloon. It was hoped the new restrictions would help flatten the curve of new cases, but even after the mandatory masks order, Victoria’s numbers continued to grow, with several days of more than 600 new cases in the past week. Mr Andrews and Prime Minister Scott Morrison had flagged last week that tougher rules were on the way for Victoria, when the Premier said Melbourne was already at “essentially stage four”. Mask orders in Victoria have not been enough to slow the virus spread yet. Photo: AAP Mr Andrews said on Saturday he was worried about potential “mystery cases” of community transmission in Victoria, above and beyond what was being detected in tests and official data. “That is in some respect our biggest challenge,” he said. Earlier, a senior federal cabinet minister said the Morrison government is “absolutely” behind Victoria in imposing the stricter restrictions. “We’re working collaboratively and closely with them as they seek to address this second wave,” federal Education Minister Dan Tehan told Sky News’ Sunday Agenda. “We’ll continue to offer as much support as we can and work with the Victorian state government.” The new rules come as authorities remain enraged over numerous examples of people blatantly flouting COVID rules. Police said they had fined Victorians found driving far from home, who have given unacceptable excuses such as needing to buy McDonald’s or get fresh air hundreds of kilometres away. In response to a growing number of infections outside Melbourne, Victorians in some regional shires were barred from having people over to their houses from midnight on Thursday last week. And masks are mandatory for all Victorians – not just those in Mitchell Shire and Melbourne – from Sunday night. The Premier has been pleading for workers to stay home if they are sick, pointing to outbreaks being directly linked to workplaces. Unions and the federal Labor opposition have been calling for paid pandemic leave to be supplied by the federal government, to help encourage people to stay home if they are unwell or isolating while waiting for a test result. Watch The News in 90 Seconds View Full Video Trending Now How the 5G coronavirus conspiracy theory is making some sick: Study Federal government support for Victoria as hard lockdown looms The biggest threat to Australia: What Trump is prepared to do for re-election News Coronavirus 6:00am, Aug 2, 2020 Updated: 10:40am, Aug 2 Federal government support for Victoria as hard lockdown looms Australian Defence Force personnel at the Epping Gardens aged care facility in the Melbourne. Photo: Getty The New Daily @TheNewDailyAU Share Tweet Share Reddit Pin Email Victorians are on the brink of an extreme lockdown amid rising numbers of untraceable “mystery” COVID-19 cases and anger at blatant disobedience. The state’s cases rose by 397 on Saturday – with 49 of those from no known source – bringing suspected community transmission to nearly 2000 cases. Total fatalities rose to 201 on Saturday following the deaths of a man and two women aged in their 80s and 90s. A senior federal cabinet minister says the Morrison government is “absolutely” behind Victoria should it impose even stricter restrictions. “We’re working collaboratively and closely with them as they seek to address this second wave,” federal Education Minister Dan Tehan, and himself a Victorian, told Sky News’ Sunday Agenda. “We’ll continue to offer as much support as we can and work with the Victorian state government.” Premier Daniel Andrews is expected to announce new restrictions as early as Sunday, believing they could be a “circuit breaker” for rising cases. NSW recorded its first death in more than a month amid 17 new infections while Queensland’s latest case has been linked to the three women who returned infected from Victoria. In Victoria, wearing masks will be compulsory right across the state from midnight Sunday. The tighter lockdown restrictions are anticipated to lead to a massive economic shutdown, with all but essential businesses told to close. Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton confirmed discussions were underway about a harder lockdown as authorities met on Saturday night to discuss the next step to curb Victoria’s high daily infections. Under possible New Zealand-style restrictions, only supermarkets, pharmacies and service stations would be allowed to operate. Schools would go back to remote learning and residents’ movements would be strictly limited. Experts spent the weekend analysing infection data from the first half of Victoria’s six-week lockdown, with Premier Daniel Andrews saying further restrictions could be a “circuit breaker” to hundreds of daily infections. A man is fined by Victoria Police for refusing to wear a face mask. Photo: Getty Mr Andrews expressed frustration at people disregarding existing public health orders, including positive cases who weren’t home when defence force members came knocking. One person was fined on Saturday for leaving Melbourne to drive to Wodonga for a hamburger while another tried to drive from Werribee to Springvale – opposite sides of Melbourne – for groceries. Further fines were issued to a Victorian who was caught driving from Melbourne to Ballarat for “fresh air”, a group who hosted an AirBnB party, patrons and staff of a brothel that had continued operations and a man who drove from Thornbury to Werribee to get a haircut from his favourite barber. The aged care crisis continues in Victoria with 1008 active cases currently linked to the sector. Photo: Getty Mr Andrews said the time for warnings had passed and a “much bigger fine” through the courts was being considered as an alternative to on-the-spot fines. The premier said one of the biggest concerns was tracing community transmission, particularly in relation to the growing number of infections from an unknown source. “We can’t be certain there’s not even further community transmission, even more mystery cases out there,” he said. “That is in some respect our biggest challenge.” NSW first new death NSW has confirmed its first coronavirus-related death in more than a month as authorities seek to suppress a number of growing clusters. The state had 17 new cases on Saturday, coinciding with the closure of several Sydney venues for deep cleaning and contact tracing after being linked to coronavirus. At least one of the 17 new cases has no known source of infection. An 83-year-old man connected to the Crossroads Hotel cluster in southwest Sydney died on Saturday morning, taking the NSW death toll to 52. It was the first coronavirus-related death confirmed by NSW Health since late June. Meanwhile a NSW duo has been arrested after entering South Australia after they were turned back. The 25-year-old man and 20-year-old woman tried to cross the border at Pinnaroo on Thursday, claiming they were headed interstate to sell a dog. They were refused entry and turned back to NSW, but police stopped their NSW-registered car in the Adelaide suburb of Kilburn on Saturday afternoon. The pair were charged with breaching COVID-19 directions and have been denied bail ahead of a court appearance on Monday. NSW Health’s Dr Jeremy McAnulty said most cases in the past week have been associated with local clusters and close contacts of known cases. However seven cases were of unknown origin. “These unlinked cases have been in people from southwestern Sydney, western Sydney, southeastern Sydney and Sydney local health districts.” Public health officials watch over as members of the Muslim community wait in line to celebrate the Islamic holiday of Eid al-Adha at the Auburn Gallipoli Mosque in Sydney. Photo: AAP The Thai Rock Wetherill Park cluster is nearing 100 COVID-19 cases, while the cluster in Potts Point has reached 24 and the funeral events cluster sits at 25. A popular venue on Sydney’s Northern Beaches, meanwhile, was on Saturday forced to shut after hosting a COVID-positive patron on the afternoon of July 24. The Bavarian in Manly underwent deep cleaning and reopened to the public on Saturday afternoon. Patrons on the afternoon of July 24 should monitor for respiratory symptoms. The Harpoon & Hotel Harry in Surry Hills, Matinee Coffee in Marrickville and Tan Viet in Cabramatta are among other venues required to undertake deep cleaning in recent days. Harris Farm Market in Leichhardt and Darlo Bar in Darlinghurst also on Friday confirmed they were frequented on July 26 by COVID-positive people and have undergone deep cleaning. Qld infection nursing home link Diana Lasu (left) and Olivia Winnie Muranga (right) are under police investigation. Queensland’s latest case of COVID-19, confirmed on Saturday, is a woman who may have been infectious while working at a Brisbane nursing home. The facility at Pinjarra Hills in Brisbane’s west had already been locked down and staff and residents are being tested after the woman’s husband tested COVID-positive on Friday. The case has been linked to the women who flouted quarantine after a trip to Melbourne, roaming across Brisbane while possibly infected. The sunshine state on Saturday imposed tighter border restrictions, adding visitors from greater Sydney to the banned list, along with all people from Victoria. Adelaide is set to receive 170 people on Saturday on a repatriation flight from India, with all going into hotel quarantine. Officials are expecting at least some to have COVID-19. South Australia also recorded a new case of COVID-19 on Saturday – a man aged in his 20s who had returned from interstate and has been in quarantine. The Northern Territory has reported one new case of coronavirus – a woman who travelled from Melbourne. Doctors’ safety plea Victorian anaesthetists are calling for ‘fit testing’ of personal protective equipment, citing concerns that not enough is being done to protect health workers from coronavirus. Three doctors are reportedly among those in intensive care as the state struggles to contain the virus. And as hospitalisations grow in the state, the level of infection risk and the effectiveness of PPE is worrying many. Anaesthetists are commonly called on to intubate patients needing help to breathe, and so they are among those face-to-face with the most severe COVID-19 cases. The Australian Society of Anaesthetists says it has made “numerous approaches” to federal and state health departments asking that fit-testing of PPE become mandatory in all hospitals. Fit testing involves checking whether airborne particles can penetrate an N95 mask and other safety gear. One method involves spraying a solution at the face, which if able to be smelled or tasted, means the mask has failed. Melbourne anaesthetist Bob Cox said the astronaut-like suits worn by overseas doctors are better because they don’t obstruct vision and are more comfortable. “At the moment we’re using equipment that is totally disposable but it has its limitations in that it may not be as safe,” Dr Cox said. “To have doctors ending up in intensive care on ventilators is not good, let alone anyone else.” -with AAP
  6. BRITISH COLUMBIA In bid to reduce COVID-19 risk, Ottawa will require all Alaskan travellers through B.C. to provide exit date Ian Bailey Vancouver UPDATED JULY 30 2020, 10:09PM Canada is cracking down on U.S. citizens passing through British Columbia to Alaska with newly announced rules that include travellers having to display signs in their vehicles identifying themselves as Americans and naming a date for their exit from Canadian territory. The new rules take effect on Friday. “These measures are put in place to further reduce the the risk of introduction of COVID-19 cases and to minimize the amount of time that in-transit travellers are in Canada,” the Canada Border Services Agency said in a statement Thursday in announcing the new rules. B.C. Premier John Horgan, who has advocated for keeping the Canada-U.S. border closed during the pandemic and expressed concerns about Alaskan-bound travellers lingering in B.C., welcomed the new measures. “We look forward to the day when our borders are open and we can welcome travellers from all over, but we aren’t there yet. These enhanced measures will ensure those travelling to Alaska take the fastest route possible with minimal contact in communities that are working hard to contain COVID-19,” Mr. Horgan said in a statement. Dr. Bonnie Henry, the B.C. Health Officer, also said she was pleased with the new policy. “I think that’s great. That’s a really helpful step,” she told a daily COVID-19 briefing. Although the Canada-U.S. border was closed to most travel on March 21, Americans travelling for what have been deemed essential reasons can cross. Under the rules announced Thursday and aimed at travel to and from Alaska, in-transit foreign nationals must enter Canada at one of five identified CBSA ports of entry – three in B.C., one in Saskatchewan and one in Alberta – and are limited to the most direct route north to their exit while avoiding all national parks, leisure sites and tourism activities. Before entering the United States, the travellers must report to the nearest CBSA point of exit to confirm they are departing Canada. En route, travellers are to display an issued vehicle “hang tag” on their rear-view mirror that show they are transiting, and the date of their exit from Canada, while the back of the tag will feature conditions imposed upon entry and public-health tips. The measures also apply to foreign nationals travelling through Canada from Alaska. According to a statement from the spokesperson for the federal Minister of Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness, travellers who fail to exit Canada as scheduled would be the subject of a follow-up investigation by the enforcement and intelligence operations division of the CBSA. A traveller could be removed, and be issued a one-year exclusion order. Discretionary and optional travel across the Canada-U.S. border remains banned. Staff Sergeant Janelle Shoihet of the British Columbia division of the RCMP said, in a statement, that the new tags will help Mounties determine why American travellers are in Canada, and whether they are required to be travelling directly to Alaska. She said that if a traveller is found to be contravening the Quarantine Act requirements, the RCMP could issue a $1,000 violation ticket. Staff-Sgt. Shoihet said, so far during the pandemic, six violation tickets have been issued in B.C. for failure to comply. However, she said she did not know the nationality of those ticketed. Last Sunday, the Alaska Department of Health and Social Services announced the highest number of new COVID-19 cases in the state to date – a total 231 newly diagnosed individuals in the state, which is home to about 731,000 people. The agency linked the case count to widespread community transmission from social gatherings, several seafood industry outbreaks and a backlog of test results that have entered the system. The commissioner for the Alaska Department of Health and Social Services warned that the surge had to be stopped, noting daily cases over 100 will soon diminish hospital bed capacity. As of Wednesday, there were 84 new resident cases and 36 non-resident cases. A spokesman for the Alaska Governor was unavailable for comment on Canada’s new measures. We have a weekly Western Canada newsletter written by our B.C. and Alberta bureau chiefs, providing a comprehensive package of the news you need to know about the region and its place in the issues facing Canada. Sign up today. THEGLOBEANDMAIL.COM DOWNLOAD OUR FREE NEWS APP SUBSCRIBE TO THE GLOBE AND MAIL SIGN UP FOR NEWSLETTERS
  7. Regarding the unwelcome federal police presence in non-federal places when State forces already had guarded Federal Property by decades-old arrangement, perhaps the administration is just testing the American tolerance levels for after the election? We don't know what their plan is because almost the entire US government is in an "Acting Something-or-other" guessing role, and his plans change between breakfast and noon according to mood, press coverage on Fox and the usual, fathomless insecurities. 2024 is the key here, not 2020.
  8. Only Congress has the power to legally delay an election. It will not do so. However,... Though the term is frustratingly imprecise, the United States is devolving into a failed state. This means that it is increasingly incapable of: protecting its citizens from violence and, these days from their destruction/death; a willingness to carry out established laws and lawful actions; relying upon its long-established, substantive institutions to support Constitutional authority of a democratic government; recognizing and correcting the "democratic deficit" - the decades-long disconnect between public opinion and public policy. Anything is now possible.
  9. Yep. Its a social powder keg and a burgeoning physical one as well, just waiting for some innocent's match.
  10. Coronavirus Makes America Seem Like a Civilization in Decline The Covid-19 crisis is another example of the nation’s inability to effectively respond to pressing challenges. By Noah Smith 29 March 2020, 05:00 GMT-7 Coming apart. Photographer: Ivan Abreu/SOPA Images/LightRocket/Getty Images Noah Smith is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He was an assistant professor of finance at Stony Brook University, and he blogs at Noahpinion. Read more opinion Follow @Noahpinion on Twitter Crises such as wars, depressions, natural disasters and pandemics can reveal differences in how effectively a society organizes itself. In the 1600s and 1700s, for example, Britain’s more advanced tax system allowed it to outspend Spain and France, while Prussia’s efficient army let it overcome larger opponents such as Austria. In the Civil War, the Union's industrial prowess allowed it to outlast and overwhelm the agrarian Confederacy. Pandemics aren’t quite the same as wars, but they can also illustrate startling differences in the effectiveness of different countries. China, the place where coronavirus first appeared, initially tried to hush up evidence of the outbreak before pivoting to a draconian crackdown that was crudely effective. South Korea and Taiwan, scarred by the SARS epidemic 17 years ago, were ready with effective response systems that tested large numbers of people and traced their contacts in order to isolate contagious individuals before they showed symptoms. European countries tended to respond less effectively, with Italy and Spain having two of the worst outbreaks and the U.K. dithering over its strategy while wasting crucial time. But perhaps no advanced nation has responded as poorly as the U.S. Perverse regulation, a bungled government test and fragmented supply chains held back testing for crucial weeks, allowing the epidemic to spread undetected. Abdication of leadership by the federal government left the job of shutdowns to state and local governments. Meanwhile, the president has issued highly unrealistic predictions that lockdowns could end in as little as two weeks. As a result, the U.S. now leads the world in cases of the coronavirus. It’s possible that the U.S.’s scattershot, slow and ineffective response to this crisis is a result of leadership failures or the recent era of political division. President Donald Trump eliminated a pandemic response team at the National Security Council, his appointments to the Centers for Disease Control and the Food and Drug Administration have been controversial, and his messaging has generally been unhelpful and conflicting. But the widespread nature of the failures suggest that coronavirus has exposed a deeper decline in the U.S.’s general effectiveness as a civilization. How recent that decline is, what its causes are and whether it can be reversed are all difficult but important questions. One possibility is that the U.S. is burdened with outdated 18th-century institutions. Federalism leaves many powers to the states, making it hard for the central government to coordinate a pandemic response even when leadership is strong and competent. The Senate and the filibuster are set up to block swift legislative solutions to the nation's mounting challenges. Countries such as South Korea and Taiwan created their centralized systems much more recently. But the U.S. made big moves toward centralization to deal with the Civil War, the Great Depression, World War II and the Cold War. Those successful responses show that the U.S. has been capable of adapting to the challenges of upheaval in the past. Recently, though, the U.S. has allowed its civil service to shrink and its salaries to become less competitive with the private sector, outsourcing many of the bureaucracy’s functions: The U.S. Needs to Upgrade Its Civil Service Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics It’s tempting to blame this on small-government ideology, but the coronavirus failures also involved over-regulation by the FDA. In general, fans of more government and less government seem unable to prioritize high-quality, effective government — what my Bloomberg Opinion colleague Tyler Cowen and his fellow economist Mark Koyama call state capacity. There may be deeper reasons why U.S. state capacity is decaying. One possibility, elaborated by economist Mancur Olson, is that as time goes by, institutions tend to be captured by a web of special interest groups. In the case of coronavirus these could include companies that use patents and mergers to monopolize parts of the medical supply chain and local business lobbies that push governments to delay lockdowns at the expense of public health. An even more disturbing possibility is that declining U.S. effectiveness is the result of deepening racial and ethnic divisions. Economists have generally found that ethnic fragmentation — usually a legacy of colonialism — tends to make countries less willing to provide public goods. In the U.S., ethnic fragmentation is mainly a legacy of slavery, which resulted in lasting black-white tensions. The urge to slash and devalue government in the late 20th century almost certainly stemmed in part from many white Americans’ fear that government would mostly benefit their poorer black countrymen. In recent decades, waves of mostly Hispanic and Asian immigration have created further ethnic divisions; Trump’s presidency is often viewed as a backlash against that increasing diversity. The crucial question is whether and how the decline in U.S. effectiveness might be reversed. Restoring the prestige of the civil service, centralizing functions such as responding to pandemics and electing competent and focused leaders are certainly all important steps. But in the long term, doing this will probably require cultivating a sense of national solidarity that crosses ethnic and racial lines while rooting out the entrenched power of special interests. Restoring the greatness of American civilization is likely to be a long and difficult road. This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg LP and its owners. To contact the author of this story: Noah Smith at To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Greiff at
  11. Good to hear, no unscheduled landings!
  12. Boeing will cut production and jobs further, and may build 787 only in South Carolina July 29, 2020 at 6:55 am Updated July 29, 2020 at 8:37 am subscriber#comments Boeing said Wednesday that, due to the collapse in demand for airliners from the COVID-19 pandemic, it will cut widebody jet production rates in Everett and will study the feasibility of closing the 787 Dreamliner assembly line there to consolidate that work in South Carolina. As the company announced a $2.4 billion loss for the quarter ending in June, Boeing said these moves will force further job losses beyond those previously announced, without specifying how deep the cuts will go. In April, after the pandemic first locked down air travel, Boeing said it would cut “more than 15%” of jobs at its commercial jet business, principally in its Seattle-area operations, amounting to a 10% cut companywide in a combination of voluntary buyouts and layoffs. Layoffs already announced will cut 10,500 jobs in Washington state. Wednesday’s announcement means further cuts are likely to be concentrated in Everett. That’s because air travel demand is particularly low on long-haul international routes flown by the big widebody jets built in Everett, and this sector of the market will likely take much longer to return than domestic air travel. In a message to employees, Boeing CEO Dave Calhoun said customers “are delaying jet purchases, slowing deliveries, deferring elective maintenance, retiring older aircraft and reducing spend — all of which affects our business.” He said Boeing will cut production of its large 777 and new 777X jets to just two jets per month in 2021, one less than previously announced. He said Boeing will finally end production of its most famous jet, the 747 jumbo, in 2022. In the past month, the pandemic has forced airlines around the world to retire that aircraft early. And most critically, Boeing will cut 787 Dreamliner production from 10 jets per month now to just six per month next year. Boeing had previously said it would go down to seven per month in 2022. At that slow rate, Calhoun told employees, Boeing will now study “the feasibility of consolidating production in one location.” That one location can only be South Carolina. The 787 is built on separate assembly lines in Everett and in North Charleston, S.C. However, the largest model, the 787-10, can only be built in the South Carolina plant, because its fuselage section is too large to fit into the Dreamlifter cargo transport plane that ferries parts to Everett. So if there is to be just one site for 787 production, Everett will lose out. The 787 is the Boeing widebody jet most likely to be in demand when international air travel does return. The prospect of losing it, combined with meager 747 and 777 rates, raises the specter of the largest building in the world by volume left largely empty of production. The plant currently employs more than 30,000 workers. The 787 was launched in 2003 after Washington state provided massive tax breaks to convince Boeing to build it here. The state now faces the prospect of losing that work. However, if Boeing does consolidate the work in South Carolina, there’ll be no impact on the company’s tax liability in Washington state because those tax incentives are already gone. In March, at Boeing’s request, the state legislature ended the aerospace tax breaks to comply with World Trade Organization rules barring subsidies. Boeing’s Renton plant where it assembles the 737 MAX will not escape the impact of the pandemic slowdown. Calhoun said once the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) clears that jet to return to service in the U.S., expected sometime this fall, Boeing will ramp up production more slowly than previously planned. The target now is to build 31 MAXs per month by early 2022. Earlier, Boeing had hoped to reach that rate next year. The $2.4 billion loss in the quarter included more than $1.3 billion in write-downs for production slowdowns, severance payments and temporary closures because of virus outbreaks in Boeing factories. It compared with a loss of $2.94 billion in the same quarter last year, when Boeing took a $5.6 billion charge to cover compensation it owes airlines for the grounding of their MAX jets. The company reported a loss per share of $4.20. The average forecast of 20 analysts in a FactSet survey was a loss of $2.57 per share. Revenue fell to $11.81 billion, down from $15.75 billion a year earlier. Analysts had expected $12.95 billion, according to FactSet. In a note to investors, Rob Stallard, an analyst with Vertical Research, said all aspects of Boeing’s financial results were worse than expected. Most Read Business Stories MacKenzie Scott begins giving away most of her Amazon wealth. Here’s why, and where nearly $1.7 billion is going. Homeowners told permits for their home renovation will cost an extra $11,000, thanks to upzoning in Seattle Pandemic? What pandemic? Seattle-area home prices keep rising fast Dogs can sniff out coronavirus infections, German study shows Intel weighs exit from manufacturing chips “We would like to think that this is as bad as it gets for Boeing, but the … rate cuts that have been announced today put further downward pressure on expectations for the out year cashflows,” he wrote. “We continue to think that the plethora of downside risks are not fully reflected in Boeing’s current share price.” After the market opened, Boeing shares fell about 2.5% in early trading. Information on the financial results from The Associated Press is included in this report. Dominic Gates: 206-464-2963 or; on Twitter: @dominicgates. (I would read the "Comments" section as well)
  13. Good outcome. Denied boardings with no compensation and, where necessary, landings for deplanement followed by billing the passenger(s) responsible, should be the absolute minimum outcome for anyone disobeying travel mandates on aircraft in Canada. Canadians want the border to stay closed and they want the airlines and authorities to get tough with irresponsibility as we are seeing it in public places and on transportation systems.
  14. Are any passengers refusing to wear masks? If so, what then, in Canada? I know what the response would be in Australia.
  15. Great fun programming the FMGC & practising in the sim...
  16. Hm. Aircraft/manufacturer-specific, not engine-specific. Was it only the MAX that was using Kathon FP 1.5 biocide, one wonders? ========== Jetstar Boeing 787-8 VH-VKJ General Electric GEnx-1B Engine Biocide Serious Incident near Kansai On 29 March 2019 the No 1 General Electric GEnx-1B engine of Jetstar Airways Boeing 787-8 VH-VKJ, flying from Cairns, Australia to Osaka Kansai International, Japan, fell below idle during the descent at an altitude of about 16,000 ft for 8 seconds. The No 2 engine then fell below idle too for 81 seconds. The aircraft safely landed at Kansai International less than 30 minutes later. ========== FAA Issues Jet Fuel Biocide SAIB by Curt Epstein - April 14, 2020, 10:22 AM The FAA has issued a Special Airworthiness Information Bulletin (SAIB) cautioning about the use of aviation fuel biocides such as Kathon FP1.5 and Biobor JF. They are used to eliminate microbiological contamination in aircraft fuel tanks, and in engines and aircraft where they are approved, the OEM’s Aircraft Maintenance Manual will include the correct method of application and dosage. According to the SAIB, several recent instances showing adverse engine effects after biocide application has been noted. While two of the events were the result of overdosing the aircraft fuel system over the recommended amount of biocide, one event caused a reaction even with the prescribed amount. The FAA told AIN, “Evidence suggests that Kathon FP1.5 biocide may deposit trace amounts of material on fuel system components when blending procedures are not followed, or under certain other conditions.” At this point the agency is not prohibiting the use of the products, but “additional investigation by the aviation community is continuing regarding the solubility characteristics of this biocide additive.” As a result, DuPont, which makes the Kathon additive, has recommended immediately discontinuing its use for aviation applications, and GE Aviation has removed it from its list of approved fuel additives while testing continues. The FAA has not had contact with the manufacturer of Biobor regarding any limitations on the use of its aviation fuel biocide.
  17. Honestly said, and I suspected so but I think in differences there can be a meeting/changing of minds, at least "in the old days". Around 2015 here, I said to DEFCON, that I'm a "child of the Enlightenment". These days I am an anachronism (but not a fossil !), and so it is very difficult to have such discussions outside one's (new) "tribe" without their permission, risking their wrath, social isolation, etc. The reasons for why have their seeds in the early 70's when democracy was first seriously being questioned. It's partly to do then as now, with changing demographics too, & partly to do with neoliberal politics which favour market forces vs. morality and corporatism vs. social values. I wrote this in 2011. And before everyone draws in another breath sharply, I'll leave it at that. Thanks again for the observation.
  18. Hi Marshall - thank you good sir, absolutely true! Somebody had said that to me decades ago when we were having a terrible time getting an airline's FOQA/FDA Program off the ground - to me, keep on fiddlng meant keep going even if everyone is throwing logs in front of your horses. I kept the saying, but never thought of the original myth/story, ignored Milton and just kept pushing! . . .we still need a lot more Cronins around 'specially now.
  19. These days, sanity and smarts appear to come in strange packages while wild-eyed, stupid, monstrous insanity is almost invisible against the background chaos. The raised eybrow that used to signal that heresies have been spoken no longer exists; in its place, wrinkled foreheads, derisive attitudes and speaking moistly. The more trips around the sun one has, the sharper the distinction between 'em. Foreheads sporting a reversed "GE" symbol or "Frigidair" emblem belong to the oldest or most aware. Fiddle on, Nero (see meaning below). The world needs you.
  20. A new H1N1 swine flu with 'pandemic potential' has been found in China. Here's what we know The Conversation By Ian M Mackay Posted 4ddays ago, updated 4ddays ago Researchers have found a new strain of flu virus with "pandemic potential" in China that can jump from pigs to humans, triggering a suite of worrying headlines. It's excellent this virus has been found early, and raising the alarm quickly allows virologists to swing into action developing new specific tests for this particular flu virus. But it's important to understand that, as yet, there is no evidence of human-to-human transmission of this particular virus. And while antibody tests found swine workers in China have had it in the past, there's no evidence yet that it's particularly deadly. What we know so far China has a wonderful influenza surveillance system across all its provinces. They keep track of bird, human and swine flus because, as the researchers note in their paper, "systematic surveillance of influenza viruses in pigs is essential for early warning and preparedness for the next potential pandemic. In their influenza virus surveillance of pigs from 2011 to 2018, the researchers found what they called "a recently emerged genotype 4 (G4) reassortant Eurasian avian-like (EA) H1N1 virus." In their paper, they call the virus G4 EA H1N1. It has been ticking over since 2013 and became the majority swine H1N1 virus in China in 2018. Being prepared at the laboratory level if we see strange upticks in influenza is essential.(ABC News: Jess Davis) In plain English, they discovered a new flu that's a mix of our human H1N1 flu and an avian-based flu. What's interesting is antibody tests picked up that workers handling swine in these areas have been infected. Among those workers they tested, about 10 per cent (35 people out of 338 tested) showed signs of having had the new G4 EA H1N1 virus in the past. People aged between 18 to 35 years old seemed more likely to have had it. Of note, though, was that a small percentage of general household blood samples from people who were expected to have had little pig contact were also antibody positive (meaning they had the virus in the past). Importantly, the researchers found no evidence yet of human-to-human transmission. They did find "efficient infectivity and aerosol transmission in ferrets" — meaning there's evidence the new virus can spread by aerosol droplets from ferret to ferret (which we often use as surrogates for humans in flu studies). G4-infected ferrets became sick, lost weight and acquired lung damage, just like those infected with one of our seasonal human H1N1 flu strains. They also found the virus can infect human airway cells. Most humans don't already have antibodies to the G4 viruses meaning most people's immune systems don't have the necessary tools to prevent disease if they get infected by a G4 virus. In summary, this virus has been around a few years, we know it can jump from pigs to humans and it ticks all the boxes to be what infectious disease scholars call a PPP — a potential pandemic pathogen. China has an influenza surveillance system across all its provinces that tracks bird, human and swine flu.(Reuters: Stringer) If a human does get this new virus, how severe is it? We don't have much evidence to work with yet but it's likely people who got these infections in the past didn't find it too memorable. There's not a huge amount of detail in the new paper but of the people the researchers sampled, none died from this virus. There's no sign this new virus has taken off or spread in the regions of China where it was found. China has excellent virus surveillance systems and right now we don't need to panic. A decade before coronavirus, I covered the swine flu pandemic As a medical reporter, I'm used to being in hospitals and even in intensive care units. But covering swine flu in 2009 was a sight I won't easily forget. Read more The World Health Organisation has said it is keeping a close eye on these developments and "it also highlights that we cannot let down our guard on influenza". What's next? People in my field — infectious disease research — are alert but not alarmed. New strains of flu do pop up from time to time and we need to be ready to respond when they do, watching carefully for signs of human-to-human transmission. As far as I can tell, the specific tests we use for influenza in humans won't identify this new G4 EA H1N1 virus, so we should design new tests and have them ready. Our general flu A screening test should work though. In other words, we can tell if someone has what's called "Influenza A" (one kind of flu virus we usually see in flu season) but that's a catch-all term, and there are many strains of flu within that category. We don't yet have a customised test to detect this new particular strain of flu identified in China. But we can make one quickly. Being prepared at the laboratory level if we see strange upticks in influenza is essential and underscores the importance of pandemic planning, ongoing virus surveillance and comprehensive public health policies. And as with all flus, our best defences are meticulous hand washing and keeping physical distance from others if you, or they, are at all unwell. Ian M Mackay is an adjunct assistant professor at The University of Queensland. This article originally appeared on The Conversation. Posted 4ddays ago, updated 4ddays ago
  21. Hi Turbofan - concur that testing is absolutely a basic for control of the virus. You'll recall however, that in the early days, when no one had access to masks, and even the early advice was "Masks don't work", and there was no such thing as "testing", that the only response was "sheltering in place", then self-isolation, then lock-down, all for very good reasons, the earlier the better. It's what we did in BC and it worked with minimal (compared to other provinces & countries), "inconvenience" to the population. The record speaks for itself and I suspect both BC & Alta would "qualify" for reciprocal arrangements, (smiling here...). Hi Marshall; Re, "Sadly the, "I will not catch it, I am invulnerable crowd"...", and all those who party-on at the top of their lungs, without masks or distance. Their personal hygiene is terrible and for me, no amount of testing excuses that primary level of public behaviour. It's the notion that a 4-wheel-drive vehicle is "safer" on a slippery highway or automation in modern aircraft means they fly themselves, or one is young, or old, or 'careful' or pious or not, but in every case, nature cannot be fooled.
  22. I don't disagree on the UK point and also wondered why NZ was left out. The broader story regarding fear is, we're faced with governments encumbered by the politics of blame and elections.
  23. Again, many thanks for responding and for the exchange, Turbofan. Yes, deeply proud of them and their colleagues everywhere - the adjustments for all of them have been herculian, particularly in the early weeks and months. We banged pots & pans at 7pm until just recently. Will let the thread return to the original topic! kind regards, Don
  24. Turbofan, thanks for your responses. I know and understand the "problems created by solutions" raised in the links you kindly researched and posted. In my view, the very seriousness of these pointed, unstable life-and-death examples and the terrible questions and their resulting "battle-field" decisions which impose on healthcare workers "left or right at Elm St." decisions for strangers, mandates great care and thought when choosing and then physically making exceptions for oneself to violate current basic hygiene rules set out by knowledgeable authorities for limiting spread of the virus. Economies need a healthy, growing/thriving population to function. Healthy people who can earn and buy are the basis for an economy. Economies may or may not survive this virus but the answer isn't in finance, it is in stopping the virus swiftly. How science and the Fauci's of this world can possibly be dismissed is a reaction which belongs to the 14th Century. The first modern death is the death of "expertise", but I will leave that obvious fact aside. Yes, risk is a personal choice but such is not without context or effect. I recognize the commercial and finance pressures are incredibly tough and we can't all just "go home" for half a year. I know that. Governments cannot pay the payrolls. But the scene in the U.S. after impatiently opening far too early was entirely predictable. For an economy to function you need healthy people. But "black-plague-like" numbers are now a possibility as the infection rate remains far higher than "1", R-naught, or R0) Our context is that of our healthcare workers which is admittedly a personal bias because we have three first-responders in our immediate family - two Emerg Nurses and a Firefighter and three grandbabies all under six, here in the Vancouver area. So we pay close attention, still. Our risk management remains within the Phase III guidelines set by Dr. Henry. whose success for BC has been recognized across the country and in the U.S. as the way to "flatten the curve". Unnecessary pleasure travel by us outside the recommendations in any form is out of the question for obvious reasons but it is also too high a risk for us to accept as justifiable or reasonable by others unless absolutely necessary because of the higher risk they pose to others. The airlines here and in the U.S. may put people in middle seats which is a commercial decision and I recognize that for many who's livelihood depends upon this work it very well may be "absolutely necessary", particularly in America where COVID-19 has been politically allowed free-rein to infect as it will. However, our daughter had a COVID-19 patient (tested) the other day who, because "the price was right" got on an airplane and went to Phoenix and upon return had developed symptoms and checked into the hospital and was placed in the COVID isolation room. The healthcare system is there to look after us and we all make decisions that sometimes lead to hospital visits. That's the nature of our democracy, so far. But sometimes, this kind of stupid decision-making does tend to elicit a WtF response. We are not just "free" to make these decisions without thought of the larger social and healthcare system upon which we all depend. The United States is tragically proving that statement correct.