Malaysia 777 Missing

[Specs]

If the only part recovered from the plane is in found in a French colony would that affect who has the lead on the investigation.

ICAO ANNEX 13

ACCIDENTS OR INCIDENTS OUTSIDE THE TERRITORY OF ANY STATE

5.3 When the location of the accident or the serious incident cannot definitely be established as being in the territory of any State, the State of Registry shall institute and conduct any necessary investigation of the accident or serious incident. However, it may delegate the whole or any part of the investigation to another State by mutual arrangement and consent.

Unless they find the wreckage it will be Malaysia?

[blues deville]

Well just to keep the conspiracy theorists happy.....

You all remember those old war movies when the submarine was being attacked and they would jettison a bunch of debris out the torpedo tube to fool the enemy into thinking that they had been sunk, just sayin.

In today's world anything is possible, however, once part/serial numbers are confirmed I'm sure this will be identified as being from the MH370 aircraft. I also feel more debris will be found in the coming weeks/months as predicted by those involved with the original search for this downed aircraft.

[inchman]

Identified this morning as a 777 flaperon by French authorities in conjunction with Boeing, NTSB and others.

I was surprised as anyone. Just shows how big those aircraft really are.... something I thought was about 3 feet long when looking out the wing is actually 6 feet long.

Let's hope they find more, and important stuff. The downside is that the really important stuff (recorders) almost certainly wasn't floating and won't be washing up on shore anytime soon.

[Guest]

MH370 search: Wing debris confirmed as part of Boeing 777

Malaysia wants to expand search for more airplane debris around Réunion island

The Associated Press Posted: Aug 02, 2015 7:15 AM ET| Last Updated: Aug 02, 2015 8:30 AM ET

A wing flap that washed up on the beach of an Indian Ocean island has been verified by French authorities and others, including Boeing, as being from a Boeing 777, Malaysia Airlines said on Sunday.

The airline's Flight 370, which disappeared on a flight from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing with 239 people on board in March 2014, is the only missing 777.

Malaysia says it's seeking help from territories near the French island of Réunion where the wing flap was found last Wednesday in order to expand the search area for plane debris.

News of an expanded search came as a second piece of debris was found on the island's shoreline and photographed.

2nd object not aircraft part

Media reports had said the object could be the door of an aircraft and that it was discovered near the city of St Denis, 20 kilometres from where the wing flap was discovered. However, a Malaysian official was later quoted by The Associated Press as saying it was nothing more than a "domestic ladder."

Malaysian Transport Minister Liow Tiong Lai said in a statement Sunday that the Department of Civil Aviation is reaching out to these authorities to allow experts "to conduct more substantive analysis should there be more debris coming on to land, providing us more clues to the missing aircraft."

The two-metre-long wing flap, or flaperon, arrived in France on Saturday and taken to a laboratory just east of Toulouse for examination.

Under a microscope and expert eyes, the fragment could yield clues not just to the missing aircraft's path through the Indian Ocean, but also to what happened to the plane.

Analysts at the French aviation laboratory hope to glean details from metal stress to see what caused the flap to break off, spot explosive or other chemical traces, and study the sea life that made its home on the wing to pinpoint where it came from.

French investigators are not expected to begin examining the wreckage before Wednesday afternoon and their Malaysian counterparts will also be present, the Paris prosecutor's office said in a statement.

Investigators believe someone deliberately switched off MH370's transponder before diverting it thousands of kilometres off course. Most of the passengers were Chinese.

The debris will be analyzed at a lab staffed by 600 experts and operated by the French defence ministry.

[boestar]

OK riddle me this.

We have seen maps posted of the ocean currents in the indian ocean. Could they not use that information and "retrace the steps" that a floating object would have taken? They have models that follow air currents they must have the same for ocean currents.

[acsidestick]

I think this is now going to be a much easier search than before. I think we can reasonable have hope that they will find the recorders as well, at some point.

All the ocean currents are well known, but starting at the beginning, when they were sure where that was led to ( I'm guessing here) hundreds of possible variations.

Knowing the end point, as they do now may, along with estimated beginning points will probably narrow the grids considerably.

Then again, they've been finding rubber ducks from that lost container all over the world

https://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&ved=0CBMQFjACahUKEwi5q-6wh4vHAhUCFpIKHUrxBBo&url=https%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FFriendly_Floatees&ei=W2W-VfmRL4KsyATK4pPQAQ&usg=AFQjCNGmnQgEeBUre3QZ_vzu_7zVm4zkkA&sig2=ERCsG_xvsKWjofM3LrXVtA

[DEFCON]

Woody's post, #651, includes some info in regard to current / drift projections.

[Woody Pusher]

Woody's post, #651, includes some info in regard to current / drift projections.

Hi DEFCON,

If we are going to discuss the implications of backtracking debris to its point of origin, then I will start by saying that existing models use math based probability distribution analysis, with error rates approaching 30 percent. Having inside knowledge into the debris/bodies backtracking problems associated with AF447, I'm bound to say at this point in time that similar current backtracking will be of limited use in locating MH370.

The following short paper by Henrik Rydberg - http://bitmath.org/mh370/debris-origin.pdf will help you understand my somewhat pessimistic response. In general terms, a quasi confirmation that the present search area is the right one is all that can be expected.

In the case of the Flaperon, its attitude in the water and the wind effect on the sail area exposed above the water will also need to be taken into account.

[blues deville]

Apparently walking the beach looking for interesting seashells will now include bigger stuff. Airplane parts and now rocket ships.

Space debris floating for a year lands on south Florida beach.

http://www.local10.com/news/rocket-debris-found-on-fort-lauderdale-beach/34493322

[Don Hudson]

Slightly off-topic, but this is near Brindisi, Italy. Highlighted here is our concept of our oceans-as-dumping-grounds:

Back to topic, I believe F.CPAir posted a link to shipping traffic, (much the same as the flightradar site for air traffic). At that site is a fascinating, (generally, and also specifically), graphic of shipping "traces" - a graphic history of shipping route traffic density in that part of the world:

[DEFCON]

Thanks Woody. The article is interesting. Like you, I also feel that attempts to back-track the current drift on objects is a bit of a stretch. Boestar was looking for info on the subject which is why I directed him to your post #651.

The linked paper highlights an interesting / 'lucky' finding; if debris is injected at 34S on the 7th arc that debris would be expected to arrive on Reunion Island within the projected time frame.

[vanishing point]

At this point in the investigation, authorities have little choice but to attempt to reconstruct the flaperon's track.

All leads must be followed.

[blues deville]

At this point in the investigation, authorities have little choice but to attempt to reconstruct the flaperon's track.

All leads must be followed.

Track and touchdown area.

I don't know if anyone involved with this has tried to duplicate the possible scenario in a simulator. We saw the CNN reporter spend days in the Mississauga FBS 777 but I'd be curious to try and repeat what might have happened. Set up the same -200ER, same engines, fuel load, ZFW and CG. Program the same forecast winds etc, route in FMC and then at the waypoint, turn left, turn off the AP, select a lower altitude and see where it goes. Repeat the event a dozen times. To me this would be just as accurate as all of the supposed "handshakes" and data they think they received.

Many accidents and incidents have been repeated in the sim to learn and reconstruct events. Delta's L1011 crash at DFW. United's Dc10 at Sioux City. U.S. airways in the Hudson. From what I recall no flight crew where able to recover or fly any these events to a successful result but they did learn from them.

[Don Hudson]

Fascinating New York Times article - http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/03/17/world/asia/search-for-flight-370.html?_r=0

How could debris make its way to Réunion? - animation http://int.nyt.com.s3.amazonaws.com/data/videotape/finished/2015/08/1438788283/forwards-4-1300.mp4

9M-MRO, image of right flaperon found on Réunion:

[Guest]

MH370: Debris found on Réunion Island belongs to missing airliner

Malaysian PM Najib Razak confirms Boeing 777 wing segment was from doomed flight

Thomson Reuters Posted: Aug 05, 2015 12:49 PM ET Last Updated: Aug 05, 2015 1:55 PM ET

Related Stories

MH370 wreckage may not provide the closure grieving families seek

MH370 search: Possible wreckage could offer clues on how plane crashed

MH370 search: Malaysia almost certain debris found is from Boeing 777

Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak confirmed on early on Thursday that a Boeing 777 wing segment discovered in the Indian Ocean island of Réunion is from the missing Flight MH370, the first real breakthrough in the search for the plane that disappeared 17 months ago.

"The international team of experts have conclusively confirmed that the aircraft debris found on Réunion Island is indeed from MH370," Najib said in a televised statement.

Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 disappeared in March last year enroute from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing with 239 passengers and crew on board.

More to come

[Jaydee]

Implications of the ReUnion debris.

http://www.duncansteel.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Implications-from-the-Reunion-Debris-found-July-29.pdf

[Don Hudson]

Nice summary, thanks.

It might be interesting to examine the trailing edge flaps of the USAirways A320 that ditched in the Hudson for a similar damage pattern. The flight controls are, I believe, not entirely metal but the surfaces aft of the control's main spar are phenolic honeycomb material. The flaperon is almost directly behind the engines, (slightly outboard of) and it would be the engines that would contact any smooth surface first, (assuming gear-up). The damage to the trailing is, relatively-speaking tiny, perhaps a foot on the aft-inboard section and maybe 6" on the outboard aft edge. An examination of which way the material broke/tore may indicate both direction and magnitude of the force that did the damage. I tend to agree with a low-speed ditching...

[IFG]

Nice summary, thanks .... I tend to agree with a low-speed ditching...

But Don, if it's the above summary (linked by Jaydee) with which you're agreeing:

.... The trailing edge damage (#5 above) could conceivably be the result of two possibilities:

Separation of the trailing edge due to contacting the water with the Flaperon in a down position, consistent with slow flight configuration for landing, or banking at the time of impact

Separation of the trailing edge due to high speed flutter at some unknown altitude above the ocean, followed within seconds by separation to the Flaperon from the wing, both prior to the main aircraft impact.

However, the lack of leading edge damage points to the second scenario only. If the Flaperon was on the aircraft when the aircraft contacted the water, it is very likely that there would be some compression damage on the leading edge. But there is virtually no apparent compression damage. This is much more consistent with the Flaperon being torn from the wing while in high speed flight (forced rearward by the airflow). In addition, the ragged tear along the trailing edge is indicative of flutter induced stress and ultimate fatigue failure, not a break off due to high bending moments at impact....

Cheers, IFG

[Maverick]

Fascinating New York Times article - http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/03/17/world/asia/search-for-flight-370.html?_r=0

How could debris make its way to Réunion? - animation http://int.nyt.com.s3.amazonaws.com/data/videotape/finished/2015/08/1438788283/forwards-4-1300.mp4

9M-MRO, image of right flaperon found on Réunion:

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That picture is just eerie to me...

[Don Hudson]

Hi IFG - ach, I knew I shouldna concluded something! ;-)

Well, of course there's no basis on present evidence for either scenario - we'd all love to view detailed images of the flaperon I know! The low speed scenario just made a bit more sense to me in the moment - I've never really offered a thought either way so far but it just struck me as more plausible - I have no evidence for saying so though.

The airplane has demonstrated aileron flutter (2010) but not to the point of loss of some of the flight control(s), (although Boeing did place accelerometers at the trailing edges of the aileron, (I'm assuming both ailerons) and stress sensors at the jack driving the aileron). There have been flutter events on the B748 but they're related to fuel loading in the horizontal stabilizer, (ed) and involve the whole wing, not just the trailing-edge controls.

I thought it was a good summary in terms of gathering disparate pieces of information which we've all seen in various places to date. I think it's a bit early to declare 'no damage' to the leading edge - in fact I thought there was a bit of compression on the inboard section of the flaperon just ahead of the rubber seals which form a square.

The question will be interesting to any aerodynamicist of course and, along with the structures engineers, that's who should not only be looking at the flaperon as there may be conclusive evidence at the microscopic level but considering the possibility of control flutter (vice wing or stabilizer flutter, the latter of which I've experienced on the A320 around M0.76 - about 8Hz up-and-down - the solution was to slightly bias the elevator to load it and change the bushings more often).

The one thing that crossed my mind while reading was, if flutter, then high speed, then a) flaperon separates from the aircraft, or b ) rides with the aircraft to impact with resultant visible damage. Point 'a)' I think is highly unlikely but I only have history to go on and tests that took the airplane to M0.96 and point 'b)' is prima facie not the case because the part is, as we see, relatively pristine.

I think they'll find the airplane though, and like AF447's recorders after two years underwater, the recorders will be readable.

Thanks for raising the point.

best,

Don

[DEFCON]

I was impressed with the collaboration that occurred between all the interested parties to determine the nature, scope and order of the testing that would be undertaken on the flaperon prior to initiating ‘any’ action.

The Malaysian government is releasing confusing, even contradictory information claiming they’ve found more aircraft parts that have washed up including one, or more window frames and seat cushions. The French aren’t confirming, or denying the claim, they’re just being evasive?

[Say Again, Over!]

I saw the "window frame" on PPRUNE and it is actually the shell of a Sears sewing machine... unless they found something else.

[DEFCON]

Thanks SA,O

I looked at the pic on the Pprune site. It would seem pretty clear, the piece in hand is definitely not a window frame.

What motivates the Malaysian officials to be so bent on confounding the public with premature and often fictitious proclamations?

That aside, if the 777 wreck was eventually found in international waters shallow enough to accommodate divers, would the Asian authorities be allowed to make the same mess of the structure as they did recovering the Air Asia 320?

[blues deville]

......What motivates the Malaysian officials to be so bent on confounding the public with premature and often fictitious proclamations?

I think this has been a problem since day one. One has to wonder if they are capable of handling any of this sad event properly.

[DEFCON]

Is a nationalistic sense of ego directing the need to appear informed and in charge?