Malaysia 777 Missing

[Woody Pusher]

The largest piece of debris to be found so far has been recovered from a beach on Kojana island, Tanzania.

Photographic analysis has determined that it is the inboard portion of the RH outer flap, having separated at its inboard hinge attachment point, which is also a double rib (under the canoe fairing).

The following document has been produced by Mike Exner & Don Thompson, plus others.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/4yoanywmvgz911p/Analysis_2016-06-26.pdf?dl=0

Both the RH Flaperon and this section of the outer RH Flap appear to have structually failed under similar circumstances, which may be flutter induced in a high speed dive. Hopefully the newest debris will be subject to full analysis and the results made public.

[Woody Pusher]

The following article is behind a paywall, but here is an extract:-

THE AUSTRALIAN 12:00AM JULY 1, 2016

 

Australian - Business Review

 

The man in charge of the hunt for Malaysia Airlines flight 370 believes the search should go on if no wreckage is recovered.

 

The possibility of locating the missing Boeing 777 is fast diminishing as the two-year hunt this week entered the last 10,000sq km of its designated 120,000sq km search area.

 

But Martin Dolan — who yesterday hung up his hat as the chief of the Australian Transport Safety Bureau leading the $180m effort on behalf of the Malaysian, Australian and Chinese governments — said if the search failed governments should consider extending it to new areas.

 

“Of course (I’d like to see it continue). This has been two years of our lives focused on this task, so of course you want to see it to completion — of course we want to find that aircraft,” Mr Dolan told The Australian on his last day as chief of the ATSB.

 

“The instinct of a professional investigator would be to find this aircraft so we can find evidence that will help us solve the mystery of what happened.

 

“But I also recognise there comes a point when governments have to make a decision about the level of resourcing that can be made available and at the moment government are saying that resources are only available to search 120,000sq km.”

 

Mr Dolan, who has led the ATSB for the past seven years, said not finding the wreckage would be one of the biggest regrets of his working life.

 

“This has been such a big part of my working life over the last two years, so regret is the right word,” he said.

 

“But while there is regret that we haven’t found the aircraft, there is also a sense of pride, because the team that’s doing the work and all the professional capability and technology and everything that has been brought to bear, everything possible that could be done has been done really well. So

I can take some pride in that.”

 

Despite finishing his term as the head of the ATSB without finding MH370, Mr Dolan said he remained hopeful the aircraft would be found in the area they had been searching.

 

“The more area they cover the more you have to review your probabilities and so there is a diminishing level of confidence that the aircraft is there,” he said.

 

“But we are still in a priority area and it is still quite possible that the aircraft will be found within this search area. So we haven’t by any means given up, and we will complete the job the governments have given us to search that area and find the aircraft, or if we are unsuccessful, then to eliminate that area from the search.”

 

The search for MH370 was scheduled to conclude in July but severe weather conditions and 15m waves have severely hampered the investigators’ work. The search has been extended to August to compensate, but Mr Dolan conceded that it was now looked like the hunt would take even longer than that.

 

“We’ve had seriously bad weather this winter. Last winter was much milder than we are encountering this time,” he said.

 

“So there are still several months to go. Certainly it is possible that the search will go through October.”

 

In the two years since the plane disappeared en route from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing with 239 passengers on board, five pieces of debris believed to come from the aircraft have been found. Last week another piece that appears to be from a Boeing 777 washed ashore on an island near Tanzania.

 

It is not clear the piece came from MH370, and Malaysian authorities are sending it to the ATSB for closer inspection.

 

“We haven’t had access to it yet, but we are coming to an agreement with our Malaysian colleagues that it will be brought to Australia for closer examination,” MR Dolan said.

 

“We can’t comment at this stage on authenticity but the Malaysians are interested in it enough to bring it here for closer examination.”

 

 

 

 

 

[Don Hudson]

Hi Woody;

As always, thank you for the continuing updates.

The link below leads to a Greenpeace "plastic" tracker - it shows where a piece of plastic may end up, dumped anywhere in any of the earth's oceans.

The modelling likely wouldn't be useful for fine-tuning search areas - the value is in seeing quickly where currents take objects. For example, dropping a floating object well south (and west) of Australia takes the object eastward. Moving the object slightly further north, one can begin to see where the currents "part ways", some continuing eastward and circling in the Australian bight, and some moving northward to end up almost curling around the northern tip of Madagascar but mainly hitting the African coast around Mozambique. Move the drop further north and the current does curl around Madagascar's northern tip and not so much around the southern tip.

There will be far more robust modelling tools I know! The intent of such a presentation, considering original sources, is clearly as a learning & demonstration tool than a research tool but it is interesting nevertheless. Here's the link:

http://plasticadrift.org/?lat=-45.5&lng=93.5&center=5.3&startmon=jan&direction=fwd

[Woody Pusher]

MH370 - Current Search will be Suspended on its Completion

At a tripartite meeting of the Transport Ministers of Australia, China and Malaysia in Kuala Lumpur on 22 July 2016, a media conference has been reported as follows:-

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/suspension-of-mh370/2977658.html

The likelihood of the aircraft ever being located is rapidly fading.

----------------

@Don Hudson,

Thanks for your link to that drift model. There are a number of models in use, and their Modus Operandi vary individually. In essence they all try to do the same thing but we are dealing with individual pieces of debris that all react differently to the effects of current and windage. Overall, objects originating from about 30S on the 7th Arc will tend to head toward northern Madagascar and on to Mozambique/Tanzania, or once past Madagascar move south through the Mozambique Channel. It would appear that the RH Flaperon swam a little to the south and grounded on Reunion.

The above is a general observation; not supported by the Final Major Turn position in the Andaman Sea.

Needless to say, the FMT (1839 - 40z missed phone call BFO) could well have been the aircraft descending at 2600 FPM to avoid primary radar detection. 

The RH Outboard Flap [inner section] is now in Canberra and the ATSB will soon be in a position to determine how it separated from the aircraft. The French were unable to conclusively determine how the RH Flaperon departed the aircraft.

[Woody Pusher]

Slowly, the information gained from the original criminal investigation surrounding the loss of MH370 is "leaking" into the public domain.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/07/mh370-pilot-flew-suicide-route-on-home-simulator.html

This new article by Jeff Wise reveals some of the information obtained from the FBI forensic examination of Zaharie's home FS  Hard Disk Drive. The terminus near 30S on the 7th Arc now appears quite probable. Sadly, the Malaysians would rather the search for the truth be ended, and in time an inconclusive Final Report will be issued, argued over, then eventually the matter will fade with the passage of time.  

RH Outboard Flap [inner section] with ATSB

[GDR]

www.thestar.com/news/world/2016/07/28/simulator-owned-by-missing-malaysian-planes-captain-had-indian-ocean-route.html

I am rather ignorant of the details of this search, but it seems to me that if they suspect the Captain and have the details of the route from his computer, then that should give them a real good indication of where to look.

[DEFCON]

The information obtained from the pilot's hard - disc is damning; why I wonder did the authorities wait so long to release it? 

[Moon The Loon]

11 hours ago, DEFCON said:

The information obtained from the pilot's hard - disc is damning; why I wonder did the authorities wait so long to release it? 

What we don't know is huge, specifically about this "news" item.

First, who had access to this computer, before and after the disappearance?

Second, why has it taken two years to release this key piece of "information"?

Third, any computer program usually has a time/date stamp buried somewhere in the file. Until that and the two previous questions can be answered, I'm still skeptical. I don't doubt one or more of the pilots may have been complicit, but there has never been any substantial piece of wreckage found except for what I call the "teasers". Call me a conspiracy follower, but I can't speculate or buy into any of the current "popular" theories.

Simply put, me, I don't have a clue what happened. Somebody does though and they've been silent for over 2 years.

[Guest]

Interesting BBC news story re the possibility of the aircraft being under control and flown into the water. 

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-36938480

MH370 was flown into water, says Canadian air crash expert

 

Image copyright Blaine Alan Gibson

 

A world-leading air crash investigator has said he believes flight MH370 was deliberately flown into the sea.

Larry Vance told Australian news programme 60 Minutes that erosion along the trailing edge of recovered wing parts indicated a controlled landing.

The Boeing 777 disappeared while flying to Beijing from Kuala Lumpur with 239 people on board in March 2014.

The official investigation team has said it is investigating whether the plane was piloted in its final moments.

MH370: What we know

An Australian-led search for the missing jet has focused on an area of the ocean floor 2,000km (1,242 miles) off Australia's west coast. The zone was selected based on the theory the flight was running on autopilot after veering off course.

But an official co-ordinating the search effort told 60 Minutes the wreckage could be outside that search zone, if someone had been in control of the plane when it crashed.

'Controlled crash'

Mr Vance was formerly investigator-in-charge for the Canadian Aviation Safety Board and the Transportation Safety Board of Canada, and has led more than 200 air crash investigations.

Image copyright AP Image caption The flaperon was recovered from a beach in Reunion Island in July 2015

He was the chief author of a report into the 1998 SwissAir Flight 111 crash off Nova Scotia, Canada which killed 229 people. The force of that crash broke the plane into more than two million pieces.

He told 60 Minutes that an absence of such wreckage was one factor suggesting MH370 landed in controlled circumstances.

"Somebody was flying the airplane at the end of its flight," he said.

"Somebody was flying the airplane into the water. There is no other alternate theory that you can follow."

Flaperon extended

Despite the extensive search of the southern Indian Ocean, no trace of the aircraft was found until the discovery of a wing section called a flaperon on Reunion Island off Madagascar one year ago.

According to Mr Vance, photographs of the recovered flaperon show a jagged edge, suggesting high-pressure water erosion that could only be caused if someone had been guiding the plane into the ocean.

"The force of the water is really the only thing that could make that jagged edge that we see. It wasn't broken off. If it was broken off, it would be a clean break. You couldn't even break that thing."

He said the fact the flaperon had apparently been deployed for landing also indicated that someone was piloting the plane when it hit the ocean.

"You cannot get the flaperon to extend any other way than if somebody extended it," he said.

"Somebody would have to select it."

'Looking for evidence'

Mr Vance's theory is the latest to emerge on what has become one of aviation's greatest unsolved mysteries.

The search for MH370 has been combing a 120,000sq km area of seabed using underwater drones and sonar equipment deployed from specialist ships.

It is expected to draw to a close by the end of the year if it does not find credible new evidence.

Peter Foley, the Australian Transport Safety Bureau's (ATSB) programme director of the search, told 60 Minutes that the type of damage the flaperon sustained provided evidence for the controlled landing theory.

Mr Foley was asked: "If there was a rogue pilot, isn't it possible that the plane was taken outside the parameters of the search area?"

He replied: "Yeah — if you guided the plane or indeed control-ditched the plane, it has an extended range, potentially."

"There is a possibility… somebody [was] in control at the end and we are actively looking for evidence to support that."

---

Where confirmed or suspected MH370 debris was found

1. A section of wing called a flaperon, found on Reunion Island in July 2015 - confirmed as debris in September 2015

2. Horizontal stabilizer from tail section, found between Mozambique and Madagascar in December 2015

3. Stabilizer panel with "No Step" stencil, found in Mozambique in February 2016

4. Engine cowling bearing Rolls-Royce logo, found in March 2016 in Mossel Bay, South Africa

Image copyright ATSB

5. Fragment of interior door panel found in Rodrigues Island, Mauritius in March 2016

Image copyright Blaine Alan Gibson

6. Fragments including what appears to be a seat frame, a coat hook and other panels found on Nosy Boraha island in north-east Madagascar.

[DEFCON]

Although Mr. Vance's theory does seem compelling, it may have one large & limiting flaw.

The flaperon sits directly behind the engine.

The flaperon doesn't extend as far as the flaps in any mode of operation, presumably because it would enter into the engines exhaust stream.

Accordingly, the engine alone would shield the flaperon and its trailing edge from being dragged across the surface of the water during deceleration no matter what body angle impact occurred at.

[Guest]

I guess until the engine was torn off .  But no reason to doubt what you said.

[JL]

With all due respect to Mr. Vance's experience, he should know better than to start drawing conclusions from less than 1% of the wreckage. Perhaps he didn't and it was the persistent questioning by 60 minutes producers who would value conclusions rather than logical statements such as "with such limited information available, it is impossible to draw any conclusions at this point such as whether or not the aircraft was under control or not at the time of impact."

[johnny dangerous]

55 minutes ago, JL said:

With all due respect to Mr. Vance's experience, he should know better than to start drawing conclusions from less than 1% of the wreckage. Perhaps he didn't and it was the persistent questioning by 60 minutes producers who would value conclusions rather than logical statements such as "with such limited information available, it is impossible to draw any conclusions at this point such as whether or not the aircraft was under control or not at the time of impact."

To be fair, if the Australian investigators had had the flaperon and flap sections that have now been recovered when they were determining the search area two years ago, it is very likely they would be searching in a different area than they have been up until now. And that would have been, as you put it, with less than 1% of the wreckage. Larry's argument that high speed impact with water, with the flaps in the extended position, would cause this type of damage, looks reasonable. Especially now with 2 separate flap sections showing similar damage.

Additionally, where is the rest of the cabin interior equipment and luggage etc that one would expect from an uncontrolled descent into the ocean?

[Woody Pusher]

DEFCON wrote;

Quote

Although Mr. Vance's theory does seem compelling, it may have one large & limiting flaw.

The major flaw in his theory is; following fuel exhaustion and the #1, #2 engines and APU have all ceased functioning, the RAT will deploy and provide limited power to essential control surfaces via the central hydraulic system. In this situation, the flaps would need to be deployed before the APU ceased operating. 

With the RAT operating the LH Flaperon is in bypass mode, and will follow the airflow over it, but the RH Flaperon is usable, as are the rudder, elevators and ailerons. The chances of the RH Flaperon surviving a ditching without major structural damage being caused to it as the #2 engine pylon shear bolts let the engine go - to collide immediately with the Flaperon, are not good.

The simulator data is probably of minor importance, other than it does show a possible route from KLIA to the NW of Great Nicobar then a turn to the south, which when extrapolated provides a great circle track to Pegasus Field (NZPG), an ice runway associated with the McMurdo Base in Antarctica. Furthermore, the recovered MS Flight Simulator data has not been leaked by the FBI - they were never responsible for its recovery. This was done under the auspices of the Royal Malaysian Police (RMP), but certain politicians were happy to claim it was from the FBI to keep the heat off themselves.

Yes, there is a lot more to this whole saga, and I'll pass on a few more clues shortly.

     

 

 

 

[Woody Pusher]

The following CBC video is of a recent interview done with Larry Vance:-

Why the Flaperon showed the damage it did.

Have a look at the video, then consider how the "flaps" were deployed when Inmarsat data has determined the aircraft had run out of fuel while at cruise altitude! In my previous post I described what happens when the only source of power is from the RAT.

So at what point in the flight did Mr. Vance say the flaps were deployed? 

[DEFCON]

Woody

Is there any information available regarding stress analysis of the recovered fragments?

Is it possible to identify the location of the door the interior panel fragment came from?

  

[Woody Pusher]

DEFCON,

The following PDF file ATSB Examination of Debris identifies that the interior panel came from beside the R1 door.

Enlarge the relevant part to see clearly the match and bulkhead decorative pattern.

There has been no official release of any analysis done on the RH Flaperon.

News reports suggested "twisting" associated with a controlled ditching, though those reports have not be confirmed by the ATSB or Malaysian MOT. 

The ATSB are currently working on the RH Outer Flap (inboard section). I doubt they will independently release their findings. Actions they take in the final days of the search may indicate the conclusions they have made. 

 

[DEFCON]

Thank you

[GDR]

Malaysia Airlines MH370 plunged into ocean in a 'death dive'

 
The rate of descent of MH370 rules out a controlled ditch or glide into the Indian Ocean.

Embed Feed Australia examines possible MH370 plane debris found in Tanzania IBTimes US
Missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 plunged into the ocean in a 'death dive', according to new evidence.

Further analysis of the Boeing 777 wing flap, washed ashore in Tanzania, revealed it was not deployed at point of impact, eliminating suggestions the aircraft with 239 passengers on board could have made a controlled landing.

Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) confirmed after examination of identification numbers (in picture) on the flaperon found off the Tanzania coast that it belongs to missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370Australian Transport Safety Bureau ATSB
Peter Foley, the head of the Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB), reportedly told Australian Associated Press (AAP): "The rate of descent combined with the position of the flap - if it's found that it is not deployed [which since has] - will almost certainly rule out either a controlled ditch or glide.

"If it's not in a deployed state, it ­validates, if you like, where we've been looking."

It confirms previous analysis of the automated flight signals that the doomed aircraft could have dropped from a height of 35,000ft at a speed of up to 20,000ft a minute before crashing into the sea.

The ATSB has led the A$180m ($134.9m, £103.8m) search, over 120,000km sq of sea floor, since the aircraft disappeared on 8 March 2014.

Despite the recent findings of the pieces of debris said to be connected to the missing aircraft in Reunion Island near Madagascar and Tanzania, no confirmed trace of the aircraft has ever been found.

It follows continuing allegations that Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah purposely veered the plane off course while on its way to Beijing. Malaysian officials admitted for the first time last month that data from Shah's flight simulator at his home in Kuala Lumpur included a flight path to the southern Indian Ocean.

Malaysian transport minister Liow Tiong Lai told the local press : "Until today, (6 August 2016), this theory is still under investigation. There is no evidence to prove that Captain Zaharie flew the plane into the southern Indian Ocean.

"Yes, there is the simulator but the (route) was one of thousands to many parts of the world. We cannot just base on that to confirm (he did it)."

It has also been reported Captain Shah was separated from his wife Faizah Hanun although they still lived together at the time of the tragedy. According to Mail Online, her comments are said to be included in an interim report due to be released on the missing aircraft.

More than 50 lawsuits from grieving families have been filed against Malaysia Airlines who are seeking compensation for the deaths of their loved-ones.

[blues deville]

I met a former Malaysian pilot today who flew on their 777 fleet. MAL has sold all 777's and now many of their 777 crews are working elsewhere in Asia. He also told me he was a close friend of the MH370 Captain and does not believe he would have been capable of crashing this flight. Apparently besides his flight sim hobby he also was an avid hang glider and ultralight flyer. He also mentioned this:

1) one of the 777 parts found on the Madagasgar shoreline had its serial number filed off. According to his sources it was not from MH370.

2) At the time of this crash, he was also working and according to his various cargo manifests, was carrying tons of a popular Malay fruit that was not in season to many destinations in China. He now feels it was something else but no one suspected anything at the time. 

3) MH 370 was carrying some kind of special equipment and six US technicians traveling with this cargo. 

4) the cargo or passenger manifests have not been discussed by the media in any kind of detail. 

Seems to me as though there is much more to learn about this mysterious flight but there has been a great effect made by someone or some group to ensure we never know the true facts.

 

 

 

 

 

[DEFCON]

That's quite a conspiracy story Blues.  Who knows, but if any of it is proven true, the MH 370 story's going to get hot again.

[J.O.]

Talk to anyone from Egyptair and they'll tell you the FO could not possibly have flown flight 990 into the Atlantic, even though the CVR / FDR tell the story as plain as day.

[blues deville]

17 hours ago, DEFCON said:

That's quite a conspiracy story Blues.  Who knows, but if any of it is proven true, the MH 370 story's going to get hot again. I hope Woody's watching here.

I totally agree. I listened to him carefully and asked lots of questions. But with out any evidence proving otherwise it's an interesting point of view and as possible as anything. He also mentioned the many friends and co-workers lost between MH370 and their other 777 aircraft which was shot down last year.

[blues deville]

On 2016-10-01 at 6:15 AM, J.O. said:

Talk to anyone from Egyptair and they'll tell you the FO could not possibly have flown flight 990 into the Atlantic, even though the CVR / FDR tell the story as plain as day.

Of course I agree JO. Just some light reading to share on this never ending thread.

[Guest]

Another positive identification:

Piece of wing found in Mauritius part of missing Malaysia Airlines Flight 37, officials confirm

 

‎Today, ‎October ‎7, ‎2016, ‏‎1 hour ago | The Associated Press 

The Associated Press | October 7, 2016 12:04 PM ET

Australian Transport Safety Bureau via APThis combination of three photos taken Friday, Oct. 7, 2016 and released by Australian Transport Safety Bureau shows a piece of aircraft debris

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia — A piece of an aircraft wing found on the Indian Ocean island of Mauritius has been identified as belonging to missing Malaysia Airlines Flight 370, Malaysian and Australian officials said Friday.

The piece of wing flap was found in May and subsequently analyzed by experts at the Australian Transport Safety Bureau, which is heading up the search for the plane in a remote stretch of ocean off Australia’s west coast. Investigators used a part number found on the debris to link it to the missing Boeing 777, the agency said in a statement. Malaysian Transport Minister Liow Tiong Lai also confirmed the identification.

It is the sixth piece of wreckage investigators have said either definitely or almost certainly came from Flight 370.

Related

• Wing flap that washed ashore on island off Tanzania belongs to missing MH370, officials say
• Potential MH370 debris points to disastrous fire on board, prompting calls for a new search
• Experts searching for missing Malaysian MH370 use new drift model to redefine search zone

The pieces have washed ashore on coastlines around the Indian Ocean since the aircraft vanished with 239 people on board during a flight from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, to Beijing on March 8, 2014.

So far, none of the debris has helped narrow down the precise location of the main underwater wreckage. Investigators need to find that in order to locate the flight data recorders that could help explain why the plane veered so far off course.

Search crews are expected to finish their sweep of the 120,000-square kilometre search zone in the Indian Ocean by December.

Oceanographers have been analyzing wing flaps found in Tanzania and on the French island of La Reunion to see if they might be able to identify a potential new search area through drift modeling. But any new search would require more funding. Malaysia, Australia and China said in July that the $160 million hunt will be suspended once the current stretch of ocean is exhausted unless new evidence emerges that would pinpoint a specific location of the aircraft.