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Everything posted by Maverick

  1. That may very well turn out to be true but it’s way too early to see where this will all shake out. When the dust has settled things will undoubtedly look different. There is already so much pent up demand for travel that when the all clear is signalled, and it will be, airlines are going to be hammered. This will also without doubt kill quite a few carriers but I think Canadian airlines, relative to a lot of other countries will probably do okay.
  2. There’s not a snowballs chance in hell that that is even on the radar as a 100-1 maybe.
  3. If ever there was a time for an airline to invoke force majeure it's now. Transat may be one of the first casualties of COVID-19.
  4. Which airlines are most in peril as of now? My first thought is Flair but who else?
  5. I’m departing Phoenix in about an hour and a half. I shall report my experience...
  6. Strategy Norwegian seeks urgent government support By Cirium13 March 2020 Norwegian is asking the government in Oslo for an immediate bailout as it struggles to cope with the coronavirus outbreak that is decimating travel demand. “We’re in a very demanding situation at the moment,” states chief executive Jacob Schram. “We need exact measures to strengthen our liquidity in the short term immediately.” Source: Norwegian While the carrier welcomes a move to suspend some taxes levied on airlines such as passenger fees, “it is crucial for us that the government will work on solutions for a phase two. We are asking for these solutions to come quickly,” Schram says. Norwegian is willing to take “all measures necessary” to reduce its losses, he continues, “no matter how painful they are.” The Norwegian government has said that it could be open to providing the industry with financial help in other ways, press reports say, although no details have been announced. Market turmoil means that Norwegian is unable to turn to investors to raise equity or issue debt in order to secure new liquidity, “which means that it is not possible to finance businesses in a normal fashion”. The carrier highlights that it has undergone significant restructuring over the past year and has sold 24 aircraft. It also has a low share of fuel hedging, locking only 25% of its expected fuel consumption – which could see it benefit from a recent fuel price reduction. In a note to clients issued yesterday, HSBC said that it expected Norwegian to face “cash flow challenges in the near term,” given the dramatic deterioration in market conditions and the US ban on travellers from Schengen-area European countries. “Suppliers will likely take a very cautious view towards Norwegian, exacerbating cash challenges. The likelihood of airlines being able to raise significant amounts of new equity in the present environment does not look high.”
  7. So what you're saying is if WJ or AC stop flying somewhere because of COVID-19 that they have no obligation to refund the ticket price to people that booked before March 4th? Too bad so sad, you pays a you money you take a you chances?
  8. Interesting. In addition to most of their Max8's there's also an A330-300 stored at Marana.
  9. I looked at about 1/2 of the AC 737-8’s and they all have the MAX on them.
  10. WestJet never had the graphic “Max” on the outside, just 737-8.
  11. I’ll look tomorrow. There’s 22 of them in Marana along with one A330.
  12. For sure. Now how big will the over-reaction be?
  13. I don’t disagree with the assessment but this is typical liberal virtue-signaling. Wait until everyone else says it then tag on. I expected much better from a guy like Marc Garneau but I suppose I shouldn’t have considering his party.
  14. Interesting. We sold 10 of our early direct-buys to Southwest a few years ago and they were absolutely stunned at how good a shape they were in, At that time they were buying up every used -700 they could find. I was at the facility where they being prepared for Southwest service and some of the equivalent age -700's I saw from southeast Asia frankly shocked me. The Chinese -700's were taking around 90 days to prepare, the WJ ones were about 45 I was told. FWTW...
  15. I'm thinking this airplane is now dying a slow death... Boeing 737 MAX Production Increases Could be a Whisper, Not a Roar Michael Bruno February 05, 2020 Credit: Jason Redmond/Getty Images Boeing’s Jan. 29 teleconference will be remembered as one of the most humbling earnings reports in the 103-year-old company’s history, but for 737 MAX suppliers it will also set the tone for the next two or three years. “Slowly” was the buzzword repeated often by Boeing leadership, especially when it came to the narrowbody’s monthly production rate ramp-up—assuming the MAX is set to become “ungrounded” and production resumes after halting this month. Boeing CEO David Calhoun and Chief Financial Officer Greg Smith said during the call that production flow will return “one step at a time,” even “one airplane at a time.” Boeing still has not forecast production plans beyond stating it can restart manufacturing months before the MAX is returned to service. But already major suppliers, analysts and consultants are piecing together a road map that foresees MAX monthly unit production rates hitting the mid-20s this year, the 30s most of next year and possibly back to 52—where it stood before the MAX crisis—by the end of 2022. “Probably the most distressing aspect of the line shutdown was the relative lack of guidance provided to suppliers,” Teal Group analyst Richard Aboulafia said Jan. 23. “Rate 52—if we get that in late 2022, I’d be super happy.” Considering that Boeing has indicated a new public marker of a midyear MAX return to service that seemingly is backed by the FAA, the supply chain is expecting Boeing’s own production to restart in March or April. “We’ve assumed roughly a 90-day production delay, which is consistent with direction that we’ve received from Boeing,” says United Technologies Corp. (UTC) Chairman and CEO Greg Hayes. More anecdotal evidence came Jan. 30 from aerostructures leader Spirit AeroSystems, when managers there announced a new agreement with Boeing over MAX production. “Under the agreement, Spirit will restart production slowly, ramping up deliveries throughout the year to reach a total of 216 MAX shipsets delivered to Boeing in 2020,” the Wichita supplier said. “Spirit does not expect to achieve a production rate of 52 shipsets per month until late 2022.” In turn, that would imply an average production rate of 24 per month in 2020, according to financial analysts Sheila Kahyaoglu and Greg Konrad at Jefferies, who note that Spirit already counts about 95 737 units parked in or near its factory. Other suppliers are making similar noises. Hayes of UTC, home to Collins Aerospace and Pratt & Whitney, says managers assume an average production rate of 21 per month in the second half of the year for Collins. General Electric executives say their Leap engine production has not stopped, but the rate this year will fall to roughly half what it was in 2019, also indicating a rate of 21. This is all a world apart from the five-a-month jumps Boeing and suppliers originally envisioned shortly after MAX production was cut to 42 a month last April. Based on what they heard at Aviation Week’s MRO Americas 2019 conference, Leeham News and Analysis reported at the time that MAX-makers had eyed a rate increase to 47 in June, 52 by August and finally 57 by last September. Of course, rate 57 is where Boeing and suppliers were poised to go to before the MAX crisis erupted. Now it is a “creep, crawl, walk, jog, and then run approach,” as industry consultant Jim McAleese puts it. Among the consequences, the first year of “normal” MAX production will be 2023, also when Boeing might get up to rate 57. In turn, Boeing and its suppliers have to adjust their earnings expectations to account for both the lack of previously planned deliveries as well as new costs, since they were positioned for rate 57 by last summer. For its part, Boeing added $9.2 billion to its summary of MAX-related financial charges as part of its latest earnings report, bringing the total to $18.6 billion so far. Cost estimates from the supply chain are trickling in, and they range from mild to eye-popping. Hayes says the production pause is projected to cost UTC just $100 million per month in sales. “We do not anticipate any layoffs,” he adds. “I think that would be the easiest thing to do, but quite frankly, given the scarcity of talented aerospace workers out there, we’re not going to be laying anybody off for a 90-day delay here. I think we’re going to work on the backlog.” But Spirit has already announced layoffs of at least 2,800 workers in Wichita. Increasingly, smaller suppliers are warning Wall Street of bad news, too. British aerostructures provider Senior said Jan. 31 its aerospace revenue this year could drop 20% compared with last year, due to the MAX production halt. Senior’s operating margins will slip as well, and according to media reports the company is saying the recently announced sale of its aerostructures business might have to be shelved until more MAX certainty emerges.
  16. Hard to tell for sure but for my money that looks like the tire cap separated and got thrown forward and into the engine. We had a rash of those a few years back and the amount of damage that can do is staggering.
  17. Then maybe they can pay back the taxpayers of Canada for the billions upon billions they've been lent?
  18. I'm Tech Ops. Rules don't apply to us.
  19. I know this doesn’t excuse it but when this happens the rampies (and the engineers!) generally give the animals plenty of attention. I’ve let dogs out plenty of times when it was safe. I’d bet money that dog was not terribly distressed on his journey!
  20. The lady has taste. The Duchess of Sussex evaded TV crews when she returned to North America on Canada's low-cost WestJet airline after announcing plans to step back from royal role
  21. Well, just for a bit of balance... Air Canada ranked one of the worst major airlines for passenger satisfaction Tyler Jadah | Dec 4 2019, 9:29 am CNW Group/Air Canada Canada’s largest airline has been ranked as one of the worst in the world when it comes to passenger satisfaction, according to a new report. ADVERTISEMENT The report, put together by consumer insights company JD Power, was split into two categories, measuring passenger satisfaction with airline carriers flying from North America to Europe and Asia. In the Asian category, Air Canada ranked as the ninth worst airline, out of 11 spots and the 10th worst in the European section. See also: These are Canada’s most-streamed Spotify artists and songs of 2019 These are the most commonly stolen vehicles in Canada Travel magazine names Air Canada as its “Airline of the Year” These are the most bike-friendly cities in Canada: report The study is based on responses from 6,287 passengers, fielded from September to October 2019. It is based on passenger satisfaction in nine categories: in-flight services, cost and fees, aircraft, flight crew, check-in, boarding, immigration, baggage, and reservation. Among carriers flying from North America to Europe, Turkish Airlines ranked the highest in passenger satisfaction with a score of 833. Virgin Atlantic ranks second with 829, and British Airways and Delta Air Lines rounded out the top three with a score of 815. Air Canada’s score was 787, beating only Norwegian Airlines at 767. The European average is 809. Among carriers flying from North America to Asia, Japan Airlines ranks highest with a score of 869 followed by Delta Air Lines (861) and Korean Air (854). Air Canada finished third from the bottom with a score of 811, followed by China Eastern Airlines (810) and United Airlines (808.) The Asia average is 830. ADVERTISEMENT “For the world airline industry, air carriers are recognized globally by Skytrax. Air Canada has been ranked Best Airline in North America by Skytrax for three consecutive years and in eight of the last 10 years,” Air Canada told Daily Hive in a statement. “In its evaluation, Skytrax undertakes an extensive annual survey of more than 21 million air travellers versus the 6,287 by JD Power. Air Canada is also the only Skytrax, Four-Star rated network carrier in North America, based on assessment of more than 1,000 aspects of airport and onboard products and services.” Air Canada says it has received consistent recognition for its products and services in the form of a wide range of other awards, most recently being named Airline of the Year by Global Traveler.