Malaysia 777 Missing

[DEFCON]

Thanks Woody

I can't seem to get the link to open; would you have another?

I can't say I anyone is wrong looking at the 7th arc, I just don't have enough of an appreciation for the science to comment, but I am finding a 30S location a little more problematic.

I don't know anything for certain, it's more of a gut hunch, but after watching all the other theories and searches go bust I'm more inclined towards the aircraft having departed from the FPR under control and then probably entering the ocean somewhere between 10 & 20S, either in, or out of control.

 

[Woody Pusher]

Hi DEFCON,

The above link works for me, but here is a Jeff Wise blog on the subject:-

http://jeffwise.net/2016/03/10/mh370-debris-storm/

... with some better pics.

The part in question is the OUTBD FLAP AFT RH SIDE ACCESS PANEL NUMBER: 676EB.

[blues deville]

It seems anything capable of flotation is now landing on various beaches. The flaperon (a sealed structure) and now these honeycomb wing panels. Can this aid in narrowing the search location?

[Woody Pusher]

Hi blues,

The current search is taking place near 37S, and Richard Cole's SAT AIS tracking data provides regular updates of what is happening.

Statistical probability analysis is effectively the only method available when used with drift models to give an idea of which latitude on the 7th Arc that debris originated from. I am aware of such analysis, and when able will provide a link to the data. However, I can say that the December find at Inhambane matches the analysis for an origin of about 30S, and the probability of further debris arriving in the same area peaks in September 2016.

 

[DEFCON]

Woody

Thanks for the new link.

Are you aware if any preliminary analysis has been completed on the nature of the edge fractures on the newly recovered pieces? Even though the opinions attached to the story seem to favour a low energy breakup, to my eye the small size of the debris and the tears and or fractures along edges seem to indicate a much higher rate of energy dissipation may have been imparted to the aircraft structure at the moment of its failure.

[Woody Pusher]

DEFCON

Both pieces of debris recently recovered are destined to the ATSB for examination by them and Boeing etc.. However, there is the usual twist in this procedure - the Malaysians have insisted that they are sent to them initially, and they will forward them to the ATSB. We can only wait for the outcome.

I favour the high energy impact, i.e. the shattering effect, which seems plausible when looking at the size and shapes of these pieces.

The Flaperon is different, as I believe it most likely departed the aircraft due to an over-speed induced flutter that caused ultimate fatigue failure to its attachment points. I suspect the French have analyzed the Flaperon and made their determinations available to Malaysia, but to the best of my knowledge that information hasn't been given to the ATSB.   A second Interim Report on the accident was released by the Malaysians on 8 March 2016, but it contained no new information other than recording that the Flaperon had been found and it was from 9M-MRO.  

[Woody Pusher]

Update on debris finds;

Of a number of reported finds noted by the media, the following are from or likely from 9M-MRO:-

1. Starboard Flaperon - Saint Andre, Reunion on 2015-07-29.
2. Flap fairing [part] - Praia de Paindane, south of Inhambane, Mozambique on 2015-12-30.
3. Horizontal Stabilizer [skin part] - Paluma Sandbank, Mozambique  on 2016-02-28.
4. Engine Cowling [part with RR logo] - Klein Brak River, Mossel Bay, South Africa on 2016-03-21.
5. Cabin bulkhead [part] - Var-Brûlé Beach, nr Port-Sud-Est, Île Rodrigues on 2016-03-30.

Seems like the remains of this aircraft are likely to be geographically, the most widely spread wreckage in aviation history.

With the evidence, so far, pointing to a high speed impact, the least understood subject with regard to the on-going search, is how the floating wreckage was missed during the initial airborne searches.

 

[Moon The Loon]

2 hours ago, Woody Pusher said:

Update on debris finds;

Of a number of reported finds noted by the media, the following are from or likely from 9M-MRO:-

1. Starboard Flaperon - Saint Andre, Reunion on 2015-07-29.
2. Flap fairing [part] - Praia de Paindane, south of Inhambane, Mozambique on 2015-12-30.
3. Horizontal Stabilizer [skin part] - Paluma Sandbank, Mozambique  on 2016-02-28.
4. Engine Cowling [part with RR logo] - Klein Brak River, Mossel Bay, South Africa on 2016-03-21.
5. Cabin bulkhead [part] - Var-Brûlé Beach, nr Port-Sud-Est, Île Rodrigues on 2016-03-30.

Seems like the remains of this aircraft are likely to be geographically, the most widely spread wreckage in aviation history.

With the evidence, so far, pointing to a high speed impact, the least understood subject with regard to the on-going search, is how the floating wreckage was missed during the initial airborne searches.

 

Conspiracy theory. Two years later, seed wreckage dispersed to confuse the masses.

Greatest mystery since Amelia Earhart...

[DEFCON]

9 hours ago, Woody Pusher said:

With the evidence, so far, pointing to a high speed impact, the least understood subject with regard to the on-going search, is how the floating wreckage was missed during the initial airborne searches.

 

This could perhaps be explained if the aircraft went into the Ocean somewhere to the north and west of Australia out of area / range search aircraft could reach?

Woody; are you aware whether any of the groups involved in the investigation have examined data from other 777's flying in this part of the world to confirm or deny the calculations that resulted in the 7th arc theory? 

[Woody Pusher]

DEFCON,

A belated reply, but there was an investigation by Inmarsat using data from a couple of previous flights by 9M-MRO on the Kuala Lumpur ~ Frankfurt (from memory) route, where they were able to match the recorded BTO/BFO data quite accurately with the actual flight path.  I'm currently looking for a link to that work, and will post it when I find it.

[DEFCON]

Thanks Woody.

[Woody Pusher]

DEFCON,

It took me a while to remember where I had seen the reconstructed tracks for some flights of 9M-MRO prior to its final flight.

The ATSB had commissioned the Defence Science and Technology Group, Australia (DSTG) to undertake a revue of the current search, and the group produced a book entitled - Bayesian Methods in the Search for MH370. The authors in the course of their research were able to obtain data from Inmarsat logs for a couple of prior 9M-MRO flights, including its penultimate flight from Beijing to Kuala Lumpur early on 7 March 2014.

http://jacc.gov.au/media/reports/2015/december/files/MH370_book_final_30Nov15.pdf

The part you are looking for is in Chapter 9 commencing on page 59 (page 75 in the PDF version).

Overall, their Bayesian Methods fall short (IMHO) as the whole outcome has been hung on the Final Major Turn in the Andaman Sea. The FMT was determined from the BFO of an unanswered phone call to the aircraft, and it was assumed that the aircraft had turned to the South. It was also assumed the aircraft was flying straight and level, whereas if it had been descending at about 2000 fpm, it could have still been following the NILHAM to IGOGU track and slowing down.

[DEFCON]

Woody

I've downloaded the book, which appears complex, but informative and quite interesting. I am going to pick my way through it and see what I can absorb. I will get back to you in due course. Thanks again.

[Guest]

An update from the BBC:

Debris gives new clues to MH370 disappearance

By Richard Westcott BBC Transport Correspondent

• 19 April 2016
• From the section Business

Image copyright Getty Images

Investigators looking for the missing Malaysian airliner, flight MH370, have identified two pieces of debris that are "almost certainly" from the plane.

Unique stencilling has been the key to identifying the parts.

The bits of debris, one from the tailplane, one from the wing flap, were found 130 miles apart on beaches in Mozambique.

The search team in Australia has now released photos that give an eerie clue to the fate of the flight.

Two pieces of text are stencilled onto the parts, one says "NO STEP", the other says "676EB". Investigators say they are clearly in the same font and design used by Malaysian Airlines.

 

If you look at the pictures below, you can see that the letters and numbers differ from the way they would have looked when they left Boeing's factory. The fonts are different. Plus, one was repainted a different colour and the other was in a different place.

Image copyright Boeing, ATSB Image caption Stabiliser panel "NO STEP" stencil and fastener comparison

The pieces reveal other clues too.

Both are from the right type of plane, a Boeing 777. Bear in mind that no other 777 has ever crashed in the southern hemisphere, and none has reported bits falling off.

Check

The piece of tailplane also had a fastener on it, carrying a manufacturer's stamp (see picture). That manufacturer does not make parts for the latest 777s, but it was making them when MH370 was built. They double checked by looking at the aircraft that rolled off the production line straight afterwards, number 405. The Malaysian flight was number 404.

There is still work going on to examine all the bits of marine life found on the debris, which could give away how long they have been in the water.

But for now investigators have concluded that both these pieces are, "almost certainly from Malaysian Airlines Boeing 777 aircraft, registered 9M-MRO".

Australian experts are also checking two other pieces of flotsam found on beaches. One has a Rolls-Royce logo on and turned up in South Africa. The other was found on Rodrigues Island.

And this all comes on top of confirmation that another wing part, called a flaperon, that washed up on a beach on Reunion Island, was also from the missing plane.

All of this suggests the aircraft did crash into the sea. None of it tells us why.

Image copyright Getty Images

Belief

Thousands of miles from where these pieces have washed up, three ships are still combing the belly of the ocean looking for the main body of the aircraft. Most of it will not have floated away.

It is tough, dangerous work in a hostile environment, searching a sea bed that makes the Alps look like a billiard table.

The sea search is due to end this summer. After that, barring new evidence, they will stop looking.

That is miserable news for families of the 239 people on board, some of whom have told me that their lives have been in limbo ever since MH370 disappeared.

Many still don't believe the aircraft crashed into the sea, they do not trust anything the authorities tell them.

 

 

[DEFCON]

Even though it wouldn't be a complete impossibility, If the piece of machinery with the RR logo found on a South African beach being photographed proves to be a piece of MH 370 it would be pretty hard to imagine any scenario in which this weighty piece of metal could ever reach this resting place if the aircraft had of gone down in the suspect areas that are and have been searched off Australia to date.

Although it's way too early to say for certain, the engine, wing, and tailplane pieces recovered to date seem to be indicative of, or continuing to support the notion that a high energy breakup event occurred resulting in the complete disintegration of the aircraft.

 

  

 

   

[deicer]

With the parts washing up in South Africa, doesn't that lend weight to the Diego Garcia scenario(yes, tin foil hat time )

[DEFCON]

We really do need to find the data recorders. Failing that I'm now hoping that just enough of the machine is going to wash up that will allow for analysis and at least tell us whether the aircraft came apart in flight, on impact and, or whether, or not fire / explosives were involved.

[Woody Pusher]

Mind twisting as this saga has become, I have a belief that with the many minds that are working, either together or obtusely on its solving, that time will bring this matter to a closure.

Presently, the search vessels are working to the SE and outside of the declared search area - one undertaking the initial bathymetric survey, while the other follows up with the search sidescan sonar. This indicates that possibly the ATSB is conceding the aircraft may have glided beyond the original search area. 

To glide, requires "liveware".

If nothing is found, then the only conclusion that can be drawn, is that that the aircraft made its way to the 7th arc by not flying a great circle track based on the initial heading from the Final Major Turn (FMT) in the Andaman Sea. That will probably mean the chances of finding the main wreckage are just that, a "chance".  

 

[DEFCON]

Interesting, but the spear fisherman's version of events, if accurately reported, sounds a little suspect.

 

http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/new-mh370-find-off-durban-coast-20160422

 

[DEFCON]

I’ve worked my way through the book a couple time now Woody. Thanks very much.

 

From my unqualified perspective, the study authors do appear to have taken every reasonable precaution possible to verify, or deny the data their modelling is producing.

 

It’s hard to argue with the science, but like other applications of predictive physics employed to study the motion & positions of objects in space, assumptions and other variables make the final result speculative.

 

Regardless, the included drift charts do add credibility to the 7th arc calculations and support the accuracy of the researchers conclusions. Better yet, as more debris from the aircraft is recovered, the expanding field may provide experts with the opportunity to accurately back track along the appropriate drift pathway to the point it intersects with the 7th arc. The added data may finally give investigators the break they need and allow them to recalculate and reduce the MH 370 search area.

 

I’m also hopeful that new discoveries will generate an interest in continued funding and allow the search to continue beyond the planned shutdown.

[Woody Pusher]

On 27/04/2016 at 1:52 AM, DEFCON said:

I’m also hopeful that new discoveries will generate an interest in continued funding and allow the search to continue beyond the planned shutdown. 

Unfortunately the search will wind down on or shortly after 30 June 2016. The Australian Federal government has made no further provision in its recent budget for further funds to the ATSB; rather it has reduced its basic funding. The current ATSB Commissioner - Martin Dolan is also completing his time at the helm of the organization on 30 June.

As of now, the five items I earlier mentioned as having being found and likely from 9M-MRO have all been examined and "confirmed" as originating from that aircraft. 

The weather is starting to deteriorate as winter finally approaches, and I suspect that searching south of 35S is going to become problematic in the near future.  If the search is terminated (as expected), the mystery surrounding the disappearance of MH370 will be left to "those with the will and the money" to hopefully bring to a successful conclusion in the future.  

In the meantime many keyboard pundits will continue having endless "field-days" with their wild theories.

[DEFCON]

It's unfortunate to know the search for 370 will be called off, but it's hardly fair to expect the Australian taxpayer to continue funding the search under the circumstances.  

[Woody Pusher]

Rolls Royce Logo Debris

The following is a bit of "old news", as I first became aware of it on 18 May 2016, but it adds provenance to the piece of engine cowling that was recovered in the Mozambique Channel on 23 March 2016 sans marine growth.

NBC News 24 May 2016

Retired Dr. Schalk Lückhoff on a photography assignment came across the cowling piece covered in rotting barnacles on 23 December 2015, photographed it and left it - because of the stink. Check the article out.

The photograph published by NBC can be viewed at maximum resolution [1500 x 1000 pixels] by opening it in a new tab etc., 

or see the ATSB image which is slightly larger and contains meta data for those interested.

[GDR]

More wreckage?

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-36386122

[moeman]

http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/10/asia/mh370-debris-australia-madagascar/index.html