Airlines Face Acute Shortage Of Pilots - Andy Pasztor - Wsj

[Don Hudson]

Hi Rich;

Some really interesting, and good points made. May I?...

The instrumental arguments such as, "what the market will bear/let the market determine wages" and the slightly-rhetorical questions asked all appear entirely rational, correct and seem to work when it comes to sorting out what should be done. That is because, by definition, instrumental thinking, of which these questions are all an example, is solution-oriented, without imposed limits, without consideration of other factors including ethical aspects of human activity.

But is that sufficient? Can we not ask what then are the results of important questions like these, (as opposed the essentially unimportant question, Should baseball players be making $96m/year?)

Because instrumental rationality is not bound by limits, (here 'limit' could mean ethics or morality or even practicality), any question stands as reasonable so long as it is settled instrumentally, even if there is later protest.

So, without raising eyebrows, we can suggest lowering the pay for doctors to $16,000 a year, not for the newbie interns or residents but established, veteran doctors. Then, because it is a fact that healthcare costs are already spiraling out of control, ask them the same questions, requiring them to defend higher wages, here and in the United States. So, cut doctors' wages; where is the downside? In instrumental thinking, there is no downside, because such thinking is only technical and makes abundant sense in the context.

But what is the sense being made? Is it sufficient to understand the question in this way? Does the answer provide a "successful" way forward? For the entrepreneur, the shareholder and perhaps the clients (namely, our passengers), obviously it is successful because costs are reduced and people can pay less for the 'same' service. (Now they demand wholly unrealistic prices from an industry that has spent all its time drawing clients only with price. The context is a neoliberal economy where wages have not kept up with inflation and so people have no money to spend, but want to fly anyway. The airlines must necessarily participate just to stay alive, not to say viable. It is a vicious circle, going back to the early 70's. - I digress)

It is trivially obvious that both aviation and medicine have a number of important characteristics in common. It is not an accident that CRM techniques first learned through the harsh lessons of aviation are becoming mainstream thinking in medicine.

There is a reason for this - it goes without emphasizing that common approaches to aviation's and medicine's common risks, keeps people alive in both instances.

There is no pay scale for high IQ, for talent, for self-discipline or for dedication. But these are non-instrumental qualities that cannot be dismissed in the equation and in the thinking that goes into the down-and-dirty of practical industrial negotiations.

All these qualities do have a price. All I am arguing here is that such price take into consideration thinking that is beyond mere instrumental rationality. As with young doctors who leave countries which train them for greener pastures, clearly the industry is now losing good pilot candidates to other, more attractive professions, and careers (and even jobs).

There is an element of "what the market will bear", certainly. In fact given the advertised pilot-shortage soon to come, market forces are going to determine who comes and who ignores the call.

But this post and dozens like it is an appeal for a new way to re-assess the presently very low value placed by society and therefore by the industry on the profession.

Unenlightened negotiations, that eighties-&-nineties approach to this profession which has brought us to this point, will not do any longer. That which "the market" alone brings us in terms of an unattractive profession that drives good people elsewhere is changing the nature of aviation accidents.

The "get-what-you-pay-for" equation works, but not in the way most understand. In aviation's case it has taken almost three decades to take the profession to where it is today.

The state of affairs is now so "normal" as to be, itself, invisible.

What is visible are the results, and the shortages are not the only visible, tangible aspects of what has occurred.

Don

[Kip Powick]

You guys crack me up. I double dare anyone who complains about not making any "real money" or wanting to find a "high paying profession" to show the "total income" from each of their last 10 income tax statements here. Next, we'll take that information around to any supermarket, Tim Horton's, high school, church, etc. and ask random people to comment. I'd be willing to bet that more than 95% don't make as much, and more than 95% never will. With very few exceptions, the remainder probably work a lot more days, have less job security, and have more education than three pilots put together.

@boestar: I don't fit into either of your two categories, so you're going to have to expand your thesis.

BTW, what is "real money"? How much should pilots be paid at each step of their career? It's hard to complain if there isn't a datum.

Hi Rich....

The fact is that many years ago the "perception" of an airline pilot was such that all pilots aspired to make the "big" money that was evident a few decades ago......one has to realize that pilots were looked upon as "Gods" doing a job that few others could manage but like all professions, technology has forged ahead and actually made the job of piloting a lot easier. How many of the kids flying now could ever do an Aural Null or Radio Range approach or even the old style of Back Course ILS?? You have to agree, that old technology was harder to fathom, and fly, compared to todays bits and bytes.

This trickle down perception, (we are Gods and deserve the big pay), is still evident with the "old dawgs" still flying in every airline. Decades ago the young fella that joined an airline was told that he would be in the left seat in 3 or 4 years and he would be making the big $$$ very soon............. many believed the tale and as such were in for a rude awaking as the industry shifted gears, merged companies and progressed into the computer world.

We all have to realize that pilots held all the cards many years ago but the changing dynamics of aviation rolled over many pilots and their failure to understand the concept of the changing industry have left many feeling they are " working for nothing".

One of the most difficult problems with pilots is to get a general concensus on any issue......3 pilots = 4 opinions........ and it will probably remain so because the only thing that is bigger than a pilots ego is probably his 14-time-zone wrist watch.

Re- your comment to Boestar......Don't know why you are in aviation but I was in it for the fun...that was it, just the fun, the money meant very little. I went from Mil pay to Airline pay....a very big boost in those days but nothing really changed...stayed in the same house, drove a used car, (only had one). and the wife still cut my hair.

Money was not an issue....it was how much fun could I have , even with all the sticky rules and regulations...it was the aircraft, any and all types, the ability to escape gravityfor awhile, the crew and the people that made my day........and when I was punted through the goal posts I could actually say........I had one helluva great time !!!!!

More than Happy to be in "Dotland"....Kip

[AME]

just some thoughts

How much of the precieved Exodus can be attributed to a change in generations? I'm at the tail end of the boomers so most of us have already, or are about to retire. The Gen Xers did whatever was necessary to advance THEIR position and it could be said they are the ones who set the bar so low, and because there isn't anything left in it for them they are choosing to leave (there was an artificial degree requirement introduced back in the 80's? which means most of the Gen Xers have an excellent fall back position).

Now we are looking at Gen Y coming into the job market and given the almost insatibale desire for instant gratification is it any wonder none of them are choosing to spend hours and hours sweeping hangar floors, loading bags and doing curcuits just so they can be an Airline Captain 10-15 years from now? Generation Z isn't looking like it will be any different.

[boestar]

Kip...very well said. I still love the business adn still love playing with the "toys" I have to leave the left seat of the plane to others as mother nature has imposed restrictions on obtaining a medical but I still love to escape gravity when I can.

[boestar]

AME:

Having supervised all of the above generations and observing behaviour, I think you are correct. The boomers built the system up, the X'ers robbed it blind and now the Gen y Want to start at the top and move up from there. That however is not restricted to this industry alone. The Gen y stock heads for the occupations that offer the biggest buck for the bank right off the mark no matter what industry it is. That is unless it involves hard labour.

[planett]

AME, and boestar:

Those comments about GenX and Y makes one wonder about where they came from. What generation(s) do you think raised them? Who educated them? What kind of mentorship and training did they receive? Who is still employing and supervising them now? Gen X is still in the bottom half of most large organizations, how could they have "robbed the system blind"?

Those characterizations of X and Y may match the newspaper articles about them, but who are the journalists and editors and what readership is being courted? The answer to all of those questions is Boomers. You get to write history that portrays you favorably when you are in the majority I guess. My experience is not consistent with the stereotypes.

Or maybe Boomers just got the last of the good genetic material.

[boestar]

Planett:

The conclusion comes from observation NOT stereotyping. Boomers are very good workers and work hard to provide for their families to give them a comfortable life and to ensure their kids have it "better" than they did.

GEN X comes along (progeny of the Boomers) and yes we have it pretty good. The battles were mostly fought in our favour and we were able to ride the coat tails of the Boomer Generation. We had it pretty good.

Along come GEN Y (the ME generation) work is but a means to acquire STUFF and time off to travel. Work as little as possible for as much renumeration as possible with an unbridled sense of entitlement.

This is where we are now. Kids joining the work force of have been in for a few years wanting to earn top dollar from the get go. They do not expect to start at the bottom as they are above that.

Yes they are a product of a laisez faire attitude among the Gen X ers to raising kids. Television, computers, Mobile phones and all the other technology granting instant gratification at every step. This, people is where the downward spiral eminates from. Look around your work place and see who the most vocal people are when iss comes to asking for something. My experience says the young ones are the ones being vocal and wanting more more more. Yes there are many in all generations that are vocal but I suggest they are in the minority.

Toss me a group of Boomer Newfies and we can fix anything.

[DEFCON]

"Just to prove my point, here's a list of 40 jobs that start at $56K per year and do not require any formal education"

I wonder why 'career politician' wasn't on that list?

[Specs]

Planett:

Along come GEN Y (the ME generation) work is but a means to acquire STUFF and time off to travel. Work as little as possible for as much renumeration as possible with an unbridled sense of entitlement.

This is where we are now. Kids joining the work force of have been in for a few years wanting to earn top dollar from the get go. They do not expect to start at the bottom as they are above that.

Why should they think any way else?

Most Gen Y new hires today have a rotten deal. They're either on the bottom half of the two tier pay system and with less benefits or they're on a contract with no benefits or they're part time forever ......and above everything else - they are completely disposable to a corporation and even the Unions to some extent. You can be the hardest and most motivated worker out there but there really is no quid pro quo anymore. Only a fool would have any loyalty to a company that treats them that way.

Unless a company is, or is even offering the prospect of, paying them enough to maintain a reasonable lifestyle, then the company regards them as faceless, disposable and replaceable so why should the Gen Yers give them their all?

[Don Hudson]

Specs, I wonder if the attitude of Gen Y, at least in part, is having watched their parents treated by corporations as you describe, as "disposable" and "expensive millstones" around "progress", and have decided that's not for them and are being way more demanding? Notwithstanding the probability that no one knows where the money is going to come from for business to pay better, (that's the mythology), there are the seeds of an increasing discontent in Gen Y's actions.

[planett]

boestar:

This laisez faire parenting you speak of could be attributed to "Boomers". Most Gen X parents aren't old enough to have spawned Gen Y workers yet. Only the oldest Gen Xers could be parents of Gen Y's in the workforce. Most Gen Y's are the spawn of "Boomers".

This worry about the next generation's abilities is nothing new. My dad, one of the "Veteran Generation", expressed the same worries about "Boomers" 25 years ago. He was frustrated with "Gen X" ers 15 years ago, and now is frustrated with "the government".

In my work and my sports, the generations (X, Y, Boomers) aren't all that far apart. They are all capable of hard work, and have great intelligence. Their differences are small compared with their similarities.

This character assasination of whole Generations is unproductive.

Cheers!

Cameron Murray.

[Specs]

Specs, I wonder if the attitude of Gen Y, at least in part, is having watched their parents treated by corporations as you describe, as "disposable" and "expensive millstones" around "progress", and have decided that's not for them and are being way more demanding? Notwithstanding the probability that no one knows where the money is going to come from for business to pay better, (that's the mythology), there are the seeds of an increasing discontent in Gen Y's actions.

Just a sidebar before I respond

I was in Ladner on the weekend and among the many kids I met while there, 2 19 yr olds stood out.

- One kid has a heart condition - the valves aren't growing as fast as the rest of his body is so every few years he goes in for surgery to have the heart valves physically enlarged with stints(sp?). He has missed out on physical activities and regular schooling all of his life. He used his situation to teach himself how to program computers. As of this past weekend he has 16 Apple apps to his credit available for purchase from the Apple iStore. (1 app had 200,000 downloads in a month) He is at the point now that he has had to hire programmers in New York to continue on with his projects because he needs to focus on college. (He's buying one?)

- The other kid is physically superior to most of his peers - super healthy and strong. His dad's an executive in the software business and the family literally have shared dinners will Bill and Melinda. He has wanted for nothing, ever. He is finishing high school in May or June and said that while he didn't have any plans he'd like to spend the summer there in the Ladner place instead of staying with mom and dad in Seattle. I mentioned that that that would work out well as the porch and front door needed painting. His response was to immediately hold out his hand and ask how much he would get paid.

Given the way the world works and the natural order of things I doubt either of those 2 kids will experience much discontent. I think those 2 are exceptions though.

Undoubtedly in general terms, the Gen Yers that saw their parents suffer the effects of layoffs or long term unemployment know what's what. I expect that they may bit a bit more hardened and realistic about what to expect in their future and will adjust their expectations accordingly. For many of them, angry discontent, cynicism and frustration may be a life long condition.

Then there are those Gen Y kids that grew up in the bubble of middle class suburbia that never experienced the uncertainty of family financial troubles and the emotional stresses that result. After a few years out on their own many of those kids now seem to either be moving back home or withdrawing entirely from their established support network of family and friends. The long term projection for those young folks too is lots of frustration, disappointment, mistrust and discontent.

Those last 2 groups are the norm and about 15-25 yrs from now I think we're going to experience one heck of a social upheaval as those kid's political influence (or lack of any) begins to be felt in the politics of the day and the social order. I saw a headline in one of the papers recently about the need for a national seniors drug care plan. My initial thought upon seeing that headline was yeah good luck with getting Gen Y to pay for that. Needless to say I skipped the article.

[Don Hudson]

Specs;

I think the two kids you describe exhibit classic Millennial generation attitudes of "high self-esteem" in the first young person and an unusual cynicism in the second. Not a criticism, just an observation in tune with the question.

Oddly, Bill O'Reilly said it well on Fox news when he claimed to have discovered the reasons behind the Democratic win: Young people want stuff and Obama gave them "stuff". (with such scintillating a rapier-like perceptions, it is a wonder why O'Reilly isn't in government...).

Some stats...

"Although 17% of teens said they seriously considered suicide in 2003, this was down from a staggering 29% in 1991. Teen pregnancy decreased markedly: births to teens aged 15 to 17 were down 42% between 1991 and 2003, and the aboftion rate for this age group also fell. The violent crim rate, which is driven by the behaviour of young men, fell 35% between 1992 and 2002. Fewer teens said they carried a weapon to school, and although 33% of high school students were in a physical fight in the last year, this was down from 43% in 1991. Even alcohol use is down among teenagers.

However, these encouraging trends may be due to the kids themselves rather than any systematic change in our culture." The book, (Generation ME, Jean M. Twenge, PhD (2006) Free Press, also in MacLeans) goes on to describe why this might be so, (legalizing of abortion, children born were those wanted and so were raised well, etc).

They have high expectations, (stuff) because that is the world they're growing up in. We all know that the collision between expectations and reality is beginning to occur as the Millennials complete their education and begin looking for work.

The collision is exacerbated by the 2008 economic "recession/downturn/driveway/curb/cliff", the latest in a series of about 15 boom-bust cycles since the end of the 19th Century.

Yet I too see individual stories and examples much the same as the ones you cite. Our kids (and we're not alone) had every advantage but it wasn't then and isn't now, easy for them.

Like many young adults of the Millenial gen we know they're just plain hard workers trying to make ends meet and while they seem in dreamland sometimes and may not know how to pick up a shovel or build something from wood, they are skilled within the context of their own world and upbringing.

This comes back to O'Reilly's comment...Gen Y has grown up in a material world in the wealthiest period in human history in terms of "stuff and comfort". Today's lessons of history usually go back to yesterday rather than a time in which such wealth didn't exist or the time seventy years ago when the foundations of the present levels of material wealth were emerging after WWII. How can they know "why" we/they are so endowed?..., it's just "there" for them.

Thinking about this, to me the society and world they are growing up in is characterized by:

1. low wages,

2. low interest rates,

3. a "market" economy,

4. failing infrastructure (bricks-and-mortar isn't sexy and doesn't poll well),

5. an atomized societal structure which counts the individual as most important, fostering a "me-against-the-world" approach to social issues,

6. diffidence towards government solutions to social issues, accompanied by a turn to private enterprise for social solutions,

7. inability or unwillingness to winnow and dismiss crackpot thinking and planning from solid, intelligent thinking, due in part to attributing an over-importance to social media,

8. inability to plan long-term, to follow through with plans and complete because everything is "pending",

9. a dismissal of experience, education and training as the basis for expertise

The last three are more effects of the first six characteristics. They're broad statements and as such will have exceptions, even notable ones. But keeping history in mind, they don't characterize my generation or even Gen X.

Under the heading of "remarkable resilience in the face of coming disaster", I suspect that as this generation grows into their 50's and 60's we'll all muddle through!

Don

[Bryon Mask]

I spend a lot of time volunteering at the Aviation Museum in Ottawa as a tour guide, interperter etc. and usually spend most of that time at the CF-18 cockpit display. Sadly to say very few who come through my station are really interested in aviation as a career. On a typical weekend shift I will talk to between 50 and 100 people of all ages. If there are 2 or 3 that express an interest in either civil or military flying I consider it a good day. Interestingly it is usually girls that want to fly and most of them are interested in going the military route. Parents often mothers are are the most negative when it comes to their children wanting to persue a military career even after you explain not everyone drops bombs on people. A few of those who have started their flying careers are frustrated with lack of job opportunities for inexperienced pilots and the cost of obtaining a licence. One young man who is a graduate of Sioux College is attempting to get his helicopter endorsement. 60 hours on a R-22 at $500 an hour! He is not very optimistic about getting a flying job with only that amount of time. He has to start somewhere.

Perhaps what is more disturbing is when you ask what kind of career these people want to persue the majority of them haven't a clue.

Somewhere in this thread there was reference made to U.S military pilots. From what my son tells me that a lot of the U.S Navy pilots who leave the service end up at either Fex Ex or UPS, they seem to be mlitary pilot friendly.

[Don Hudson]

Interesting perspective Bryon, and we talked about this a long time ago! As with investment in other infrastructure, both public and private sectors of the economy for a whole host of reasons have failed this industry terribly, largely continuing to see it as an ATM machine and not a contributing part of local and national economies which require facilitation and active policy support.

This isn't a "millenial" problem...they're a symptom. The traditional loyalty and commensurate commitment that comes with a belief in a company and a future is no longer valued. C'est ça la vie but it's very frustrating having seen it coming.

Cheers!

Don

[Bryon Mask]

"This isn't a "millenial" problem...they're a symptom. The traditional loyalty and commensurate commitment that comes with a belief in a company and a future is no longer valued. C'est ça la vie but it's very frustrating having seen it coming."

How sadly true my friend.

[boestar]

I have posted this before but it is a good read on this very subject and from my observations very accurate.

Generations in the work place

[chockalicious]

"I see no hope for the future of our people if they are dependent on frivolous youth of today, for certainly all youth are reckless beyond words... When I was young, we were taught to be discreet and respectful of elders, but the present youth are exceedingly wise[disrespectful] and impatient of restraint"

Hesiod, 8th century BC

[inchman]

For all those out there who complain about their job in the sun:

Just less than 30 percent of workers land their dream job, or work in some related field, according to a recent LinkedIn survey of about 8,000 professionals. The top dream jobs for American men were pilot, scientist and professional or Olympic athlete, according to the survey. American women hoped to become teachers, vets or writers.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/19/dream-jobs-survey_n_2160009.html

Not that those taking the survey know exactly what the job entails, but given that less than 30% of people seem to have achieved their dream, maybe we shouldn't whine so much.

So... What are the "dream jobs" that pilots haven't achieved?

[DEFCON]

"What are the "dream jobs" that pilots haven't achieved?"

The same one they have now, but with stability reflective of the time we both entered this game?

[inchman]

What stability would that be?... almost getting laid off 2 years in a row in the early 80s (save for the good graces of the senior pilots to do worksharing)?.... 10 years of stagnation sitting sideways? Having exactly the same number of pilots below me in 1992 as in 1980? You can have that kind of stability.

Or would it be the stability of the RIM or Nortel workers, or Eaton's workers? Or a Bell lineman from the 70's?

The world has changed. No job is as stable as it was in the 70s or 80s.

[DEFCON]

I agree, the world has changed and I can appreciate the slow or absent career progress during the 'early year's, but my reference was more generically focused on comparing the 'left seaters' of the time to those of the present day. If we were to compare the career progression of today's under 45 or so crowd against our generations; well, comparison sucks doesn't it, but that's change for you?

[W5]

IN FOCUS: Global demand for pilots set to soar

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/in-focus-global-demand-for-pilots-set-to-soar-378881/

Pilot hiring will have to increase significantly soon and - once increased demand kicks in - sustained. That is the verdict of veteran US pilot recruitment consultant Kit Darby, delivered at the Royal Aeronautical Society's Flight Crew Training Conference in late September.

Darby's argument is that all industry forecasts predict air travel to grow globally by about 5% and for the world's fleet to double by 2030. All forecasts also concur that the rate of growth will be slower in mature economies such as North America and Western Europe, but faster in much of the rest of the world, particularly the Asia-Pacific region.

Meanwhile, a number of factors that have slowed airline growth and pilot demand no longer apply, such as raising the commercial pilot compulsory retirement age in many countries from 60 to 65 in 2007. In the USA, it delayed the retirement of about 12,500 experienced pilots, but that period has now ended and those late retirements are beginning. The average airline pilot age among US majors, which was 28 in 1978, was about 37 in 2007, and it shows no signs of coming down.

Looking at the US market, Darby notes that pilot productivity and aircraft utilisation are higher than a decade ago. Although aircraft utilisation is expected to continue to rise during the next 20 years, he says pilot productivity has reached the limit so the number of pilots required per aircraft in an airline's fleet will increase. His pilot productivity argument takes into account not only flying hours (about 85h/month), but duty hours including standby time (170h/month), and the much larger number of hours of time away from home (240-340h/month).

MILITARY SHIFT

Darby says that since 1994, the number of US pilots with entirely civilian training began to exceed those sourced from the military, and that disparity is rising. If the military shrinks and the shift from manned to unmanned aircraft continues, the number of fully trained military pilots with easily transferable qualifications will fall further. And, even in regions with struggling economies such as the eurozone and North America, airline traffic growth has begun to reassert itself. Finally, the depressive effects on air traffic such as 9/11, the Iraq war and fears of a global flu epidemic are history and, unless replaced by something equally dramatic, Darby predicts the return of demand for pilots at a significant rate up to 2030.

Darby has a warning for the US market in particular. At present, he points out, the US commercial aviation market operates 50% of the world's aircraft and accounts for 66% of its pilots, but the US airlines are growing slower than the rest of the world's. Also, demand for US pilots from abroad may increase, which provides competition for US employers.

Meanwhile, the US system for employment of foreigners and the massive difference in the US training philosophy (no ab initio direct to right-hand seat) means it cannot source pilots from abroad like other countries can. In addition, the new Airline Safety Act passed by Congress as a reaction to the revelations from the 2009 Colgan Air crash at Buffalo means pilots need to have a minimum of 1,500h and a full air transport pilot licence (ATPL) to work in either seat of any category of commercial transport aircraft. Instructors of ATPL courses must also have ATPLs. The effect of this is to insert a delay into the US pilot supply chain right at the bottom end.

Darby has also debunked the belief that US career pilots earn less than before. They might struggle to start and might invest more in training, but if they end up with a 30-year job with one of the majors, they have lifetime earnings and pensions comparable to those in the past, he said. While any glamour that is attached to the job tends to be associated with the big long-haul passenger carriers, the highest US payer is FedEx, with Southwest and UPS close behind, making them attractive career destinations.

[Wolfhunter]

Hello all,

Finished up with the RCAF about 5 months ago and really looking forward to the pilot shortage. Been hearing about this since I was 16. So far, no calls though. I'll let you know when the phone rings.

Cheers

[Don Hudson]

Rich...very well stated!