Q400 Not A Slam Dunk

[airt]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/bombardiers-q400-faces-dogfight-for-westjet-fleet-order/article2406977/

[Super 80]

The ATR has its place in the world, but it isn't flying some of the relatively long and thin routes that have to be on the agenda. Especially if they want to take the war to the Jazz opperated US routes.

[boestar]

Each plane has its plusses and minuses (sp?). PErformance on the Q400 is excellent but Maintaining the ATR is nicer for the AME. We noted When I was with Bombardier that the Q400 outperformed the global express to FL250. Its a good machine.

[Seeker]

This is all an act to get a better price for the Q400s - the ATR isn't really a contender (IMO).

[rudder]

The Q400 flies at BAE146 speeds and carries BAE146 loads but burns a fraction of the fuel. The ATR flies at Dash 8 speeds. If there is an interest on the part of WJ in turboprop flights over 400nm then there is only one reasonable choice.

[W5]

Somebody posted this over at AvCanada; interesting read:

http://theflyingengineer.com/aircraft/proud-to-fly-a-turboprop-q400-vs-atr72/

[internet]

This is all an act to get a better price for the Q400s - the ATR isn't really a contender (IMO).

Bean: how serious was WJ looking at the 319 back in 2000.

[Fido]

Somebody posted this over at AvCanada; interesting read:

http://theflyingengi...-q400-vs-atr72/

A nice summary.

[Thebean]

Bean: how serious was WJ looking at the 319 back in 2000.

Very, very seriously.

The competition back then was about which aircraft had the potential to make more money for WestJet. We could have cared less where they were made or worried about Boeing or Airbus's shareholder well being.

The bottom line was the bottom line.

[airt]

Very, very seriously.

The competition back then was about which aircraft had the potential to make more money for WestJet. We could have cared less where they were made or worried about Boeing or Airbus's shareholder well being.

The bottom line was the bottom line.

Interesting story...I was in the office with a couple of other guys one night when TM came in the room and said , "well boys , looks like we're getting Airbuses". The Big Shots were in final negotiations with Airbus and Boeing that night. I thought to myself DAMN , because my personal preference was Boeing. TM said that Airbus had just offered a deal that was going to be impossible for Boeing to beat. He left the room and went back to the negotiations and within a short time later the Boeing deal was announced.

When an aircraft manufacturer wants a deal bad enough , amazing things can happen.

[Super 80]

Especially coming off of unexpected loses to Airbus for JetBlue and Frontier's orders and an all-round dreadful 1999.

[airt]

Especially coming off of unexpected loses to Airbus for JetBlue and Frontier's orders and an all-round dreadful 1999.

Speaking of dreadful , the Q400 order book is pretty thin.

I have heard speculation that if they don't secure this order there is a chance of ceasing production.

If true , the pressures on. WestJet seems to be in an enviable position.

[DEFCON]

The Q400 is an excellent modern ac. It could easily replace most, if not all of the little jets flying around on routes between 300 - 700nm.

[Super 80]

I don't think things are that bleak, a larger US regional has a handful of management pilots getting type rated on the DHC-8 as we speak.

[rudder]

"Bombardier has booked firm orders for 428 Q400 and Q400 NextGen aircraft, with 389 delivered as of December 31, 2011."

http://finance.yahoo...-174200703.html

[melcrothers]

I RECALL A FEW YEARS AGO - CONCERN ABOUT ATR'S AND ICING ISSUES.

IS THAT NO LONGER AN ISSUE? IT LOOKS LIKE QUITE A BIDDING WAR THAT

SHOULD BE GOOD FOR GREGG & COMPANY!

[airt]

Looks like Bombardier had better start sharpening their pencils.

The whole speed thing is pretty much irrelevent. 10 or 15 mins on a typical leg. Most customers won't notice or care. The single engine service cieling is another kettle of fish though.

Ben's a smart guy and worth listening to.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/euro-rivals-plane-better-than-bombardiers-q400-on-short-haul-expert-says/article2408168/

[Fido]

Ben's a smart guy and worth listening to.

Now that is debateable.

What does a stock promoter know about airline operating costs?

[Thebean]

Now that is debateable.

What does a stock promoter know about airline operating costs?

You might want to consider reading the report before making that comment.

[Fido]

You might want to consider reading the report before making that comment.

I did read it and it appears that he made his whole decision based upon the fuel cost of the Q400.

The analysis needs to be far more complex than that. I know because I have done it a couple of times. The preceding link is a much better and more in depth analysis.

[Super 80]

Ultimately the question comes down to what is the intended scope of the WS regional operation, if it is to be regional in the most literal meaning of the word... bring on the tail stands. But I just don't see why they would cut themselves off at the knees like that when the Q400 can either throttle back for efficenty or quite comfortably operate longer routes.

[Kip Powick]

GLOBE AND MAIL....FRIDAY 20 APRIL 2012

A leading aviation analyst has declared a European-built turboprop to be superior on short-haul flights over its Canadian rival, resulting in a surprising vote of confidence for the foreign aircraft maker’s bid for a 40-plane contract with WestJet Airlines Ltd.

The French-Italian ATR 72-600 is the ideal fit for WestJet because it’s more fuel efficient than Bombardier Inc. s Q400, said Ben Cherniavsky, a Vancouver-based analyst with Raymond James Ltd.

“According to our detailed calculations, the ATR fleet delivers superior returns,” he said in a research report Thursday.

The ATR 72-600 – with a list price at $23-million (U.S.), compared with the Q400 at $30-million – stands out on shorter routes that WestJet will be considering for its new regional subsidiary, Mr. Cherniavsky said. “Our analysis reveals that there are relatively few markets in Canada where the speed of the Q400 makes a material enough difference to offset its higher costs.”

WestJet’s final decision will come down to which routes to focus on and, if it places the highest priority on scheduling flights that take less than an hour, the ATR 72-600 has an edge, he said.

The Q400, assembled at Bombardier’s Downsview plant in Toronto, has a maximum cruising speed of 667 kilometres an hour, compared with the ATR 72-600’s top speed of 510 km an hour.

ATR spokesman David Vargas said in a statement from France that he’s confident that WestJet will “certainly select the aircraft best suited for the mission and the financial return,” and the European turboprop is the logical choice for an airline seeking “significantly better results.”

European aerospace giant EADS co-owns ATR with Italy’s Alenia Aermacchi. “ATR 72s feature a clear advantage to airlines. Cash operating costs per trip of a Q400 are more than 20 per cent higher than the costs of the ATR. When comparing a fleet of 40 aircraft during one year on a typical 300 nautical mile route, the use of ATRs instead of Q400s may represent savings of some $30-million,” Mr. Vargas said.

But Philippe Poutissou, vice-president of marketing at Montreal-based Bombardier’s aerospace division, said the Q400 is the right turboprop for Calgary-based WestJet because the plane is more powerful and has a longer range, as well as the capability to reduce speed when necessary to conserve on fuel.

“The Q400 is an aircraft that delivers flexibility. So if you need it to be a slower and extremely efficient aircraft, you can fly it that way,” Mr. Poutissou said. “When you look at an investment in an aircraft, you need to look at it over many years.”

Mr. Cherniavsky noted that while he prefers the smaller-sized ATR 72-600, “both scenarios generate a positive outcome for WestJet as a whole.”

One major strike against the foreign plane, however, is its “inferior climbing performance and single-engine cruising capabilities – the altitude at which the plane can fly in case of an engine failure,” he said.

WestJet plans to launch its low-cost regional arm by the end of 2013, hoping to erode Air Canada’s strength on the country’s regional routes.

[airt]

I did read it and it appears that he made his whole decision based upon the fuel cost of the Q400.

The analysis needs to be far more complex than that. I know because I have done it a couple of times. The preceding link is a much better and more in depth analysis.

What did you find when researching engine overhaul costs on the Q400 vs ATR?

I'm not a fan of analyst's but IMO Ben is the best in our sector. He must be doing something right...he royally **bleep** off Milton a few years back.

[rudder]

How much do you believe that BBD will sharpen its pencil to get the WJ order? $30M is list price. NOBODY has ever paid that. Add to the equation EDC financing subsidies and you will come up with a very different number.

The ATR calculates its (alleged) cost advantage based on the typical European stage length where you can traverse a country in 300nm. Canada is very different. Imagine shopping for a new vehicle and narrowing the choice to a small sedan and a mini van. You choose the small sedan because it is cheaper but can still carry 5 passengers. A couple of years later you find that there is an opportunity to carry 6 passengers or now the kids play hockey but there is no room for the equipment and players in the vehicle selected. Was buying the sedan the best long term choice? Wouldn't the best deal be getting the minivan for the sedan price?

WJ is looking at replacing the 737 on several routes. Have you seen the YYZ-LGA loads? Appalling. If you are looking at versatility and an aircraft that offers near jet speeds, there is only one choice. All that BC is doing is forcing BBD to work a little harder to get the WJ order. WJ wins because they will ending up paying even less for the aircraft that they want.

[airt]

rudder

I initially thought the Q400 was a no brainer. Once deep into the data it is a much more complicated choice.

I'm well aware that airplanes never sell at list. The question is how far below list do you pay? Not many know what WestJet paid for NG's , right Bean?

I like your sedan/minivan analogy. I've always regretted it when I cheaped out or bought just what I needed/could afford at the moment. Personally I'm hoping for the Q400 but this is ultimately a numbers decision. Numbers as in $$$$.