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Search for MH370 called off.


Kip Powick

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I think nearly 3 years of confusion, smoke and mirrors was enough. 

Someone or some group knows exactly what happened to this aircraft. I now believe the new guy starting work on Friday will also be added to the list. 

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The search area was based on what was presumed to be a turn to the south in the Andaman Sea just prior to 1840z, and the route south could be made to match the BTO arcs and the BFO data to give a LNAV track.  Hindsight, which now includes updated drift modelling, suggests that the aircraft made the turn south at a later time, while at 1840z was probably descending when heading WNW close to the N571 airway.

A late turn would result in a track intersecting the 7th Arc closer to 30S.

If the search had been delayed until the first debris was located, I suspect that the search area selected would have been different. However, its doubtful that Malaysia is interested in any further search, and just hopes that the loss of 9M-MRO will become a fading memory as time passes.

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From the article:

The real barrier to finding out what happened to MH370 is not a lack of evidence, capability or even a next best guess at the plane’s whereabouts. It’s apathy.

Thompson, the IG member in Belfast, said after three years the mystery had “receded from most people’s minds”.

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55 minutes ago, seeker said:

From the article:

The real barrier to finding out what happened to MH370 is not a lack of evidence, capability or even a next best guess at the plane’s whereabouts. It’s apathy.

Thompson, the IG member in Belfast, said after three years the mystery had “receded from most people’s minds”.

I think that is entirely understandable. That the disappearance of a aircraft that large is not easy to fathom, but as the "world turns" daily events that take place overshadow the unthinkable. Another part of the equation is that it did not happen in our back yard so "as bad as it is for NOK"  most of the populace accept the fact that the entire issue is "old news" and life for the rest of the world must go on.

Undoubtedly there will be annual anniversary gatherings for the NOK and in many cases there will never be a feeling of closure....similar to the lost aircraft in the Bermuda triangle as well as Amelia Earhart.

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2 hours ago, Kip Powick said:

Undoubtedly there will be annual anniversary gatherings for the NOK and in many cases there will never be a feeling of closure....similar to the lost aircraft in the Bermuda triangle as well as Amelia Earhart.

I don't think this one is going to be forgotten about in the near future.

A privately sponsored reactivation of the search is rumoured - though as I have already suggested, nearer to 30S. 

 

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Woody, is there any reason to believe that, as thorough as the search was in the areas specified, that there is a realistic probability that the wreckage was missed?

The image of the remains of AF447 was essentially elliptical, with the heavy parts within a relatively small area and within 15nm of the LKP. Long time since reading the details but I like the notion of exploring within such a radius of the LKP of MH17.

 

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Don,

A properly done side-scan survey can be considered successful when all nadir (blank spots) have been covered by a tow on a prior or later pass, and if any doubtful areas are identified, a follow-up AUV scan is used to complete the coverage. In the case of the work undertaken by the vessels used by the ATSB, and the backroom analysis done both in Australia and by another contractor in the USA, I have no reason to doubt that anything bigger than a mobile phone was missed. 

The task undertaken was huge when compared to the search for AF447, when for that aircraft we knew where it was 4m 28s before it cashed. The logistics involved in determining where MH370 even went and where it might be are a totally different ball game.

I hear that the offer of a reward to those finding the aircraft made by the Malaysian Deputy Transport Minister a few days ago has now been withdrawn, which makes the likelihood of a privately sponsored search proceeding, pretty low.  However, there are people and organizations with well developed skills in working in the 'grey areas' of International waters, so I suspect that something will be put together.  

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