Air Canada pilot strike vote open.

[Seeker]

8 minutes ago, dagger said:

Unless the Labour Code has changed to bar such "leaks", I think they are entitled to say or leak what they wish.

I'm certainly no expert on this but doesn't the NDA prevent this?  Or shouldn't it prevent this?  I don't suppose a NDA is required by the regulations but if one is signed as part of it...  Also, "leaking" information is a sort of backdoor way for the company to go around the union leadership and bargain directly with the members which is forbidden by the regs.

13 minutes ago, dagger said:

 Unions certainly do the opposite when bargaining terms are concessionary or underwhelming. 

Perhaps in some cases but ALPA has not done this.  All they have said is generalities or responses to the leaked information.  The "we offered them 30%" came from the company.

15 minutes ago, dagger said:

Anyway, the pilots won't see another offer until the strike starts.

Or until the lockout happens.

[Vsplat]

I wonder how long Rousseau has. 

Admittedly he followed a generational force in Rovinescu (who himself had to overcome a pretty harsh reputation as Chief Restructuring Officer) but still,  despite Mike's many talents, I have yet to see much interest in reading the room, be it giving a speech in Montreal about bilingualism, or carping about pilot wage demands in the wake of eye popping personal compensation changes.

Where does he think the money comes from for all of his pay?  It's like that critical system that keeps getting written up, only to be deferred or MEL'ed over and over again.  Either we deal with these things up front and fix them at a known cost, or they deal with us, later, with uncontrolled consequences.

Vs

Edited September 9 by Vsplat

[Turbofan]

3 hours ago, dagger said:

Anyway, the pilots won't see another offer until the strike starts.

 https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/air-canada-prepares-for-orderly-shutdown-to-mitigate-customer-impact-resulting-from-labour-disruption-833522018.html

Interesting comment Dagger.

We are still a week out. Care to explain why you think that? Or are you referring to wind down as the start?

I wonder if Air Canada will test the Governments resolve to stay out of this before they will be willing to restore pre bankruptcy wages and working conditions.

The thing is though.  Neither an ugly strike or government intervention will lead to labour stability. 

[Turbofan]

I’m sure most people here remember John Gradek.

[Malcolm]

I would not be surprised if the feds. allow the strike to happen and continue. Unlike the railway strike, there are quite a lot of alternate airlines etc. for the public to use and of course Sept is not exactly a high travel demand month.  

 

 

[mrlupin]

Malcolm,

Look at the route network. The 2 major airlines in Canada are structured as an Oligopoly. They say there is competition but look at the narrow route overlap.  How many airlines are serving YVR-YUL, YUL-YHZ, YUL-YYZ, Look at the AC flights out of YYC vs WJ... The Canadian airline industry, just like the rail industry is concentrated with a few players sharing the market instead of truly competing. You'll be surprised to see how many routes are operated exclusively by AC or WJ. On the international side there is a bit of competition but no chance that anyone has enough spare capacity this late in the game to  handle the volumes AC does. The route network isn't what it used to be. I question your alternate airlines theory. I'm just not seeing it.

 

[Seeker]

17 minutes ago, mrlupin said:

Malcolm,

Look at the route network. The 2 major airlines in Canada are structured as an Oligopoly. They say there is competition but look at the narrow route overlap.  How many airlines are serving YVR-YUL, YUL-YHZ, YUL-YYZ, Look at the AC flights out of YYC vs WJ... The Canadian airline industry, just like the rail industry is concentrated with a few players sharing the market instead of truly competing. You'll be surprised to see how many routes are operated exclusively by AC or WJ. On the international side there is a bit of competition but no chance that anyone has enough spare capacity this late in the game to  handle the volumes AC does. The route network isn't what it used to be. I question your alternate airlines theory. I'm just not seeing it.

 

Last numbers I saw had AC with a 44% market share domestically.  September being the shoulder season I would expect Westjet, Flair, Porter have extra capacity available so the net loss might be 40% or even as low as 35%.  Jazz would get re-deployed to service the holes.  A significant impact on travel options no doubt but does it rise to the level of a national emergency that necessitates a weak minority government to intervene?  I guess we'll see.

[Turbofan]

1 hour ago, mrlupin said:

Malcolm,

Look at the route network. The 2 major airlines in Canada are structured as an Oligopoly. They say there is competition but look at the narrow route overlap.  How many airlines are serving YVR-YUL, YUL-YHZ, YUL-YYZ, Look at the AC flights out of YYC vs WJ... The Canadian airline industry, just like the rail industry is concentrated with a few players sharing the market instead of truly competing. You'll be surprised to see how many routes are operated exclusively by AC or WJ. On the international side there is a bit of competition but no chance that anyone has enough spare capacity this late in the game to  handle the volumes AC does. The route network isn't what it used to be. I question your alternate airlines theory. I'm just not seeing it.

 

Does it matter?
 

The inability to travel is not an emergency.

 

[mrlupin]

Hi Seeker,

I'm sure your numbers are right, they aren't the point I was trying to make. The devil is in the details... The 44% market share figure is not very informative. It's a bit like AC broadcasting average pilot salaries or top salaries without context to equivalent fleet types salary and productivity rules.

On some key routes, you will find AC to have a full or quasi full monopoly, on others it will be Westjet. Porter still being a marginal competitor Canada wide. IMHO it is by using monopolistic routes that AC will be trying to convince the various levels of government to impose arbitration.

Just some thoughts watching from the sidelines,

 

Regards

 

[mrlupin]

2 minutes ago, Turbofan said:

Does it matter?
 

The inability to travel is not an emergency.

 

It certainly can matter.

If AC is trying to impose arbitration, they need to sell the essential services aspect to the government and public. That can be:

1. access to remote areas,
2. transport of medical isotopes,
3. industry support
4. Whatever excuse or story makes the government side with the AC

[Turbofan]

The CIRB has already ruled on essential service.

That route won't work.  Besides all it does is delay strike until it's determined which routes require maintenance.  Then a strike can proceed with the rest.

Even the railroads were deemed non essential by the CIRB.  For the CIRB essential is only Life limb security.

Travelling across Canada by air does not meet this test

An international route can't apply.  So it stops for sure.

[Malcolm]

3 minutes ago, mrlupin said:

It certainly can matter.

If AC is trying to impose arbitration, they need to sell the essential services aspect to the government and public. That can be:

1. access to remote areas,
2. transport of medical isotopes,
3. industry support
4. Whatever excuse or story makes the government side with the AC

And what would be the "Union" counter?

[Turbofan]

5 minutes ago, Malcolm said:

And what would be the "Union" counter?

We have a right to free bargaining without concern the government will remove our constitutional right to strike.

Past Government interference is partly to blame for the current situation.  No company will negotiate if they don't think they have to.

 

[dagger]

4 hours ago, Turbofan said:

Interesting comment Dagger.

We are still a week out. Care to explain why you think that? Or are you referring to wind down as the start?

I wonder if Air Canada will test the Governments resolve to stay out of this before they will be willing to restore pre bankruptcy wages and working conditions.

The thing is though.  Neither an ugly strike or government intervention will lead to labour stability. 

I said it weeks ago - you need some big drama to get a deal ratified this time. Or there will be a section of the membership convinced there is more. Also, you need the younger people to wonder if the company loses enough business, whether all will be recalled as soon as a deal is ratified. Ultimately, there will be another offer, I suspect it will focus on Year 1 money and adjustments for certain brackets (i.e. not showing up in the general wage increase numbers. After all AC has to think of the other unions. You can explain away a big upfront adjustment, but not large increases in subsequent years). And speaking of the other unions, how long will AC wait until it lays everyone else off?

[Vsplat]

I'd say the other unions have driven the pilots' contract negotiations a bit too much over the past few rounds.  I've read some outrageous comparisons about what it takes to become a pilot vice some of the other roles.  At some point, 'me too' needs to meet a limit.

I don't think too many other roles in the airline have a starting salary where, when you count all of the time on call, hourly rate is less than minimum wage, while expecting the individual to carry close to 6 figures in training debt and live within 2 hours of the airports of the most expensive cities in the country.  All while one medical away from unemployment.   Something has to give, and spin won't change it.

Vs

[Turbofan]

Dagger,

I realize theater is part of negotiations.

But no one on the ALPA side s playing games.

We want our pre bankruptcy wages and working conditions back

We are not asking.

[dagger]

19 minutes ago, Turbofan said:

Dagger,

I realize theater is part of negotiations.

But no one on the ALPA side s playing games.

We want our pre bankruptcy wages and working conditions back

We are not asking.

I didn't say anyone was playing a game, but the company likely needs the assurance of a ratification as much as the ALPA bargaining committee will need it when there is a deal. As for the outcome, remember the lyrics of the Rolling Stones, "You can't always get what you want.. but if you try sometime, you just might find you get what you need", and ultimately, as always, that will be how it all ends. (I don't see early government intervention, so this ought to play out differently than the rail dispute.)

Edited September 9 by dagger

[Turbofan]

Dagger,

These negotiations aren't like the past. They are all data driven.  By that I mean stat companies can tell within a very thin margin what the vote results will be.

It is all based on substantial polling. 

Both sides know exactly what it will take for ratification.  

 

[UpperDeck]

2 hours ago, Vsplat said:

 

I don't think too many other roles in the airline have a starting salary where, when you count all of the time on call, hourly rate is less than minimum wage, while expecting the individual to carry close to 6 figures in training debt and live within 2 hours of the airports of the most expensive cities in the country.  All while one medical away from unemployment.   Something has to give, and spin won't change it.

Vs

Over and over one hears of the 6 digit cost of obtaining an APL. Where does this come from? One of my employees joined Cdn forces and was flying a fighter not long after with no prior flying experience. No cost.

I just checked Embry....$24,000.

Delta will pay YOU to pursue an APL if you're a student at various colleges.

I'm not focussing on this issue except to ask that one speak of the norm not the exception.

[UpperDeck]

Referencing the impact of a "withdrawal of services" one should always remember the extent of the market within 200 miles of a US airport which affords access to all of AC's market excluding Canada.

As I recall, WJ a few months ago reduced or eliminated various routes to the East. Coincidence? Hmmm!

I suggest that WJ does in fact have resources to re-focus on the East quickly with significant reward in the event of a disruption of AC service.

I don't believe the government will intervene and I also believe that AC are fully prepared for this strike. I anticipate that all other employee groups will be soon be looking for UIC benefits.

Bottom line....pilots at the bottom of the list will be offered ( and have been offered) higher income. Those much higher on the list? Take that 30% increase OVER THE LIFE OF THE CONTRACT....and run.

And by the way....if we move into a recession will you agree to a pay reduction equal to any reduction in the annual CPI?

Addendum.....I admit I am NOT fully informed and I have NO skin in the game. These are simply unsolicited ramblings from the bleachers.

[Turbofan]

38 minutes ago, UpperDeck said:

Over and over one hears of the 6 digit cost of obtaining an APL. Where does this come from? One of my employees joined Cdn forces and was flying a fighter not long after with no prior flying experience. No cost.

I just checked Embry....$24,000.

Delta will pay YOU to pursue an APL if you're a student at various colleges.

I'm not focussing on this issue except to ask that one speak of the norm not the exception.

https://www.mtroyal.ca/ProgramsCourses/FacultiesSchoolsCentres/Business/Programs/AviationDiploma/FAQs.htm#:~:text=For the two years of,for the minimum required courses.

For the two years of the MRU Aviation Diploma program, flying costs are approximately $73,391.85 for the minimum required courses.

Dont think this includes the PPL.  If not add another 25K.

No one does it in the minimum hours certified by Transport.

And of course the military is free.  You and I pay for it.

There is no company in Canada that sponsors pilots.

 

From Reddit about the program.

https://www.reddit.com/r/MRU/comments/13z3a0k/whats_the_aviation_program_like/

It is extremely expensive. Like 50k a year expensive. You can use the budget calculator to get an idea. You’ll also have to get your PPL and Category 1 Medical, which have additional costs.

I’ve heard great things about the program otherwise, I know a few people who took it and loved it. But all of them had to get brutal loans to cover the costs because financial aid won’t cover all of it.

 

This is what the MRU says to budget for the program.  I selected.  No accommodation. No meal plan. No parking

 

[Turbofan]

51 minutes ago, UpperDeck said:

 

I just checked Embry....$24,000.

I also checked out Embry.  Your number appears to be for tuition.  I can’t see anything on their site about the cost of getting your hours in.

I’m not that familiar with them. Are you sure they are not just an aeronautical university?

[Vsplat]

53 minutes ago, UpperDeck said:

Over and over one hears of the 6 digit cost of obtaining an APL. Where does this come from? One of my employees joined Cdn forces and was flying a fighter not long after with no prior flying experience. No cost.

I just checked Embry....$24,000.

Delta will pay YOU to pursue an APL if you're a student at various colleges.

I'm not focussing on this issue except to ask that one speak of the norm not the exception.

If you want to use US examples for this, then why not the pay as well?  We keep going around this buoy.

Getting a licence in Canada as a civilian will set you back a long way for a long time.  I see Turbofan has posted something more  specific.  That should answer your question.

I guess I need to ask a question in return.  Do you really think hundreds of hours in single and multi-engine aircraft with instruction over a period of years can be  bought in Canada for $24K?  That math was already obsolete when I started in the '70s.

Vs

[Turbofan]

1 hour ago, UpperDeck said:

 

I don't believe the government will intervene and I also believe that AC are fully prepared for this strike. I anticipate that all other employee groups will be soon be looking for UIC benefits.

 

All because AC doesn’t want to give back pilots their pre bankruptcy wages and working conditions.  Hugely profitable and they are just going to throw shareholders under the bus?

As far fetched as that seems.  Knowing AC you might be right.

But I’m going with fear mongering instead.

If they lay off employees it would take months.  Not kidding here.  To get back up and running.  Employees will disappear. Spirit made this mistake in 2011.  It almost ended the company.

[Turbofan]

1 hour ago, UpperDeck said:

 

Bottom line....pilots at the bottom of the list will be offered ( and have been offered) higher income. Those much higher on the list? Take that 30% increase OVER THE LIFE OF THE CONTRACT....and run.

 

Your talking like a Capitalist again.
 

Unionist don’t think individually.  It’s collectively.  Not just collectively but that 14 year old thinking about becoming a pilot.

Unionists, particularly the pilot kind, are a strange breed.