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Turbofan

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Everything posted by Turbofan

  1. Wonder what is up. https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news/105665-canadas-flair-airlines-in-court-action-over-max-leases Court Action by Flair shareholder over expansion and Max 8 leases.
  2. At a certain point we all have to transition from lockdown to living with Covid. Transition to dealing with it like every other risk in our lives. Ethically you want everyone to have had an opportunity to have both doses first. But at a certain point people who choose not to vaccinate, can not have the world in lockdown forever. Like smoking. Warn them. Give them free programs to quit. But if they don't want to? They have to live with it. The US thinks along these lines more strongly than Canada. In the fall there will be a small forth wave of those unvaccinated. Nothing will shut down. You can't. If you shut down for a wave of unvaccinated you will never reopen. There will be stories of Joe down the street who didn't vaccinate. The reality of transitioning to risk management will push more to vaccinate when they ask themselves" am I managing this risk appropriately"? In the mean time the Joe's of this world will be a shame. I hope people are taking seriously the choice not to vaccinate and have weighed the risk.
  3. I think in general you nailed it for every jurisdiction. How much spread has any particular area had? We have no idea. There are so many variables. Location is a big one. Where you near a hot spot. Population density. Lockdown response and severity. A year into this Manitoba is not anything like New York or Texas. Lockdown is to slow or stop the spread. It’s a delay tactic. Performed well, with a successful vaccine roll out, it will hopefully minimized severe outcomes. The problem is you are kind of like dry kindling waiting for a match, while waiting for that vaccine immunity. It’s a slower approach. There may be more waves of the virus until herd immunity takes hold. On an Island like New Zealand or Australia it has work well. Less lockdown means faster spread. Sooner heard immunity as a result of natural vaccination. The problem is this approach is kind of like taking the match to dry kindling yourself. A rapid large spike in sever outcomes. But is faster. Sweden for instance only had two waves and reached immunity fast but had over 14,000 deaths for a population of 10million. Finland, Norway and Denmark using lockdowns, has had a much slower time reaching immunity but had deaths at 967, 790, 2500 respectfully with populations in the mid 5million range. I think the post Mortem will be pretty clear. Lockdown waiting for vaccine immunity saved lives. It’s slower, the US is open and we are not, but it saves lives
  4. This legislation puts Manitoba in charge of when people from other Provinces, or countries, are permitted free access to Manitoba. Manitoba’s move is about control. It’s a politician thing. It is targeted at having control over free movement even if other jurisdictions approve it. The Federal Government is no longer in charge of when our international boarder opens and free movement returns within all of Canada. Now we need approval from multi layers of government with regard to Manitoba. If every Province did this we would have a hodgepodge of reopening rules and bureaucracy post pandemic that would imperil economic recovery and limit civil liberties. Its possible Manitoba may intend to open to other Provinces, but how? The Federal vaccine passport is meant for international travel only. Many Canadians won’t bother as they don’t travel. At least three provinces are not going to follow suit. What about foreigners? The Federal Government is about to erect a vaccine requirement for entry into Canada. Why would Manitoba tell these people they have to quarantine? A group of fully vaccinated US fishermen is safer than a group of Canadians who are probably 70% vaccinated. Maybe that’s it. Maybe Manitoba plans to keep unvaccinated Canadians out? That is a charter violation. You can get away with infringing on civil liberties during a pandemic. Not after. The road block Manitoba has put up is for one reason. Palliser is saying “I have control”. What he does with that control we will have to see. But he didn’t bring in a Provincial vaccine passport not to use it. Again it doesn’t surprise me that one of the more isolationist Provinces during the Pandemic has chosen this route just as reopening is being talked about. So far it is simply one Province. So far the Maritimes has not followed suit. They have a lot more to lose in tourism than Manitoba so I’m hoping they don’t follow their lead. There is also the risk of this turning into an interprovincial pissing match. That would produce the same unwanted results.
  5. Possibly. This is what Intergovernmental affairs minister, LeBlanc, had to say on the matter of vaccine passports yesterday. https://globalnews.ca/news/7936027/icao-vaccine-passports/ “We have been undertaking significant discussions with the European Union and with the United States,” LeBlanc said in French. “But Prime Minister Trudeau, and the premiers of the provinces and territories have agreed on the importance of having a national document proving the vaccination while respecting that medical record information belongs to the provinces and territories.” Why would the government of Manitoba announce a provincial vaccine passport on the eve of a national vaccine passport? According to Minister LeBlanc Manitoba knows all about the plans. So why the sudden multi layered approach? An approach that would effectively nullify a Canadian or foreign vaccine passport within Manitoba. The multi layered governmental approach to containing Covid has the potential to be problematic to unwind. Here is a different issue, same problem, starting to play out in Alberta. We have mask by laws in Calgary, Edmonton and Alberta as a whole. The opening plan for Alberta takes masks to voluntary in phase 3. Calgary and Edmonton have indicated they don’t agree and may/likely leave their mask bylaws in place. This type of thing is probably going to play out all over Canada if hesitancy is permitted to lead to roadblocks. What is needed is strong Federal leadership. The unwinding of multi layered governmental laws could be very problematic for business. In particular anything to do with the movement of people.
  6. FWIW Alberta has also stated a Covid vaccine passport is off the table. They would however provide documentation for whatever is need for international travel. So I guess no Alberta or BC guests in Manitoba even after exiting the Pandemic. My son lives in North Eastern Ontario. Can I drive through Manitoba? What if my car breaks down and I need a hotel? What if I’m hungry? I have my vaccination receipts from Alberta. How much is the Manitoba fine if my fully vaccinated body gets caught buying gas? Crap my licence plate will out me too. Yikes just looked up the fines in Manitoba. Maybe I will just go around through the US when the boarder opens…..…..just a minute. I wonder if that is the intent to begin with. https://www.gov.mb.ca/asset_library/en/covid/archives/restoring/enforcement.pdf
  7. Yes. But BC also recognized their jurisdiction didn’t allow them to stop interprovincial travel when they considered it. They stuck with limiting travel within BC only. Instead they decided to close the Trans Canada highway for construction east of Golden. Creative.?
  8. Other than the Maritimes why would it matter if other Provinces recognize it or not? Manitoba residents are free to move about most of the country without quarantine as it is. The only perk that comes with the passport is for Manitoba residents and only when entering Manitoba. It simply has no relevance outside of Manitoba. We have four provinces in this country that have been more isolationist than the others. Exiting the pandemic it would be natural to expect that one of these provinces would be the likely source of further isolationist legislation. Now we have one of those provinces enacting legislation, that if enacted in all provinces would mean, interprovincial quarantine for everyone, regardless of vaccination status, all the time.
  9. To set the record I’m not anti vax. My first dose was also AZ. Pfizer was my second. Will have to wait and see how that plays out with these passports. But that’s another topic. I also support the honey approach to getting people vaccinated. Perks, positive feedback work. But I read Manitoba’s vaccine passport as a double edged sword. Positive incentive to vaccinate for Manitoba residents, stay away for everyone else. I guess we will see, but other provinces following suit could turn into and interprovincial nightmare for travellers.
  10. That’s my point. Is this where things are heading? Interprovincial travel requiring a vaccination passport? I can see crossing an international boarder. I can see the Federal Government setting policy. But this is a domestic jurisdiction. Impacting freedom of movement of Canadians within Canada. Even fully vaccinated Canadians. A multi layered bureaucratic approach will also stop international travel. Who would bother coming to Canada if other provinces followed suit? Of course what I see as a flaw someone else may see as a feature. It looks to me that Manitoba has decided to discourage travel for the foreseeable future. 180 degrees to opening up. Essentially taking down one fence while putting up another. I hope other Provinces don’t follow suit. Doing so, from a practical perspective, would close Canada to foreigners. Allowing Domestic jurisdictions ( from a practical perspective) to to usurp the authority of Federal Jurisdictions in setting freedom of movement. Where does it stop. Maybe Toronto brings in their vaccine passport. Then Mississauga. Then Oakville. Creating a bureaucratic juggernaut. I hope the response to this is simply, fine do your own thing. We just won’t go there. And leave it a that. If other Provinces decide to take Manitoba’s lead?
  11. https://news.gov.mb.ca/news/index.html?item=51422 I find it hard to believe that Manitoba would spend the time and money on this initiative unless they planned on instituting for a period of time. On the surface it touts reopening. But on further scrutiny it looks as though if you are not from Manitoba, regardless of vaccination status, you will have to quarantine for 14 days on arrival. This looks more like a preemptive position against reopening in many aspects. What would happen if every province did this? Thoughts?
  12. I think the big difference is opportunity. Everyone in the US has had the opportunity to vaccinate. That isn’t the case here. Once everyone has had the opportunity to choose for themselves, life goes on with the choice each person made. Baseball stadiums are full with maskless people in the US now based on the CDC advise that you don’t need a mask if you are fully vaccinated. Are there unvaccinated maskless people there? Probably. Might they get sick? Maybe. They have been warned and had the opportunity to vaccinate. Life goes on. Smoking for example. The carrot. It’s not good for you. Here are free programs to help you quit. The stick. Ugly pictures on cartons. Drive the cost jump. If you still don’t stop? You live with it.
  13. I agree. The boarder will remain closed until it becomes a political liability. Currently the political liability is not being closed enough. The government is using a carrot to encourage people to vaccinate. 75% vaccination and we can open up. Watch for that carrot to turn into a stick. Get vaccinated because we are opening up regardless.
  14. Good video. So are we all going to remember this new knowledge when it comes time for the flu shot next year? Efficacy of 60% ish usually. Kip the spacing between shots is a result of a fast paced trial. Antibodies peak at the 2 week mark and they juice the people again. Although expedient for trial purposes, we know from previous vaccines that maximum efficacy is normally longer between shots. Shingles, for example, is 2-6 months between doses for maximum efficacy. Currently researchers are going back and trying to find the efficacy sweet spot for second dose timing. None of that research is published or peer reviewed as of yet. However those making the decisions on dose timing have a feel for how that data is unfolding. One such study not peer reviewed yet. https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centr ... tions.html The 12-week interval was 81% effective, compared with 55% for the 6-week interval. The researchers also found that a single dose of the vaccine was 76% effective 3–12 weeks after the shot was administered.
  15. My point is that what happened with demand domestically in the US was like a switch. The only way you capitalize on that is by staying in the starter gate. Perhaps WJ has decided that staying in the starter gate is too expensive. Or the net payoff not worth it. This industry is just so competitive I have trouble buying that though.
  16. I just can’t see further reductions at this point. If you look at the US domestic market there is a lot of pent up demand for travel. Canadians are sitting on Billions. Not being in a position to capitalize on the release of that demand? I realize WJ is a single fleet type and can spool up faster than say AC. But how fast realistically? Why would you layoff people April 1, that you will probably need June 1. Recency issues alone would be problematic.
  17. I agree. A bunch of years ago landing in YYC at night there was this weird optical illusion that the runway was curved upward about half way down. Significantly so. Like a ski jump. When I reported it to ATC the aircraft behind asked what we were smoking. After landing ATC asked if they saw the same illusion. The response. Yup we are clearly smoking the same stuff. The illusion must have been heat I think. But I don’t have a quality explanation.
  18. Watch Darren Fishers eyes. Is it just me, or does it bother anyone else that not only does he not answer the question, he’s reading his response.
  19. https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEB8yReGqhHqKyCYXyzvHMBEqFAgEKgwIACoFCAowhgIwkDgwob0I?hl=en-CA&gl=CA&ceid=CA%3Aen Vijay Kolinjivadi Vijay Kolinjivadi is a post-doctoral fellow at the Institute of Development Policy at the University of Antwerp. The pandemic presents us with a great opportunity to do away with the destructive mass tourism industry. Ultimately, addressing the damage of global mass tourism requires taking stricter climate action against the aviation industry and encouraging more domestic and regional leisure travel. Introducing more fuel-efficient aeroplanes would simply reduce costs and increase demand. The urgency required to scale back emissions before 2030 means flying has to be phased out. The pandemic grounded flights; responding to climate change demands the same. The post-pandemic world must continue to keep air travel reserved for essential purposes, such as family reunification and repatriation. This is the only way to transition to a post-pandemic tourism sector that makes a serious effort to meet commitments to the Paris Agreement’s goals.
  20. In my mind the issue is one of credibility. If the projection is out by weeks or even a month or two I would call the modelling credible. Half way correct would also make it credible. No one expects exact. We do however expect reasonable. Every other country is using similar simulation software. It’s the input data that each country has a choice in. Health Canada’s choices on inputs are clearly not inline with other jurisdictions. It was therefor imperative that they explain the input choices they made, and why. No critical thinker will just blindly accept a wildly different projection without explanation. They provided no explanation. Worse when asked for the inputs they didn’t know. It would be like getting a flight plan from A to B with way less gas than normally expected. You scratch your head and can’t see the reason. When you call dispatch to ask about it they say “ I don’t know, it’s what the computer spat out.” So back to my comments on credibility. Without an explanation on inputs no policy maker can act on it. It becomes lose, lose. If Health Canada’s projection is right, we should be resorting to a full on shelter in place. But we won’t because the projection didn’t come with a credible explanation. If Health Canada is wildly wrong, no one is going to listen next time.
  21. I guess we will see then. The seven day average on Feb 18 was 2906 cases/day. Health Canada predicts over 20,000 cases/day within 6 weeks EVEN IF current restrictions stay in place. It will take two weeks to reach 20,000 cases/day if we reduce lockdown measures. The rest of the world is generally predicting a slow easing of cases/day. We will come back in a month and see.
  22. With all the modelling issues we have already had, the projections themselves become an issue of public trust if heath Canada continues to vastly miss the target. Eventually people will stop listening. Provinces won’t buy in. In fact I think that is already happening. When an infectious disease doctor asks, “ Why is the modelling so different from the modelling everywhere else?“,and Health Canada doesn’t have an answer, there is a problem. If you put something out so different than everyone else, you should know to expect you will be asked why. If you can’t answer that simple question your credibility tanks.
  23. I get the concern. But Canada is an outlier in its projections by a long shot, and we are not the only country with variants. Nor are we alone in our slow vaccination rollout. The UK wasn’t looking for what they didn’t know existed. Other countries have the luxury of monitoring the situation. This is what concerns me. The professionals scratching their heads. The graph left infectious diseases experts scratching their heads. “What are the underlying assumptions?” Dr. Martha Fulford, an assistant professor at McMaster University and infectious diseases physician at Hamilton Health Sciences, told the Sun. For me, a model is only as good as the data inputted and we need to know what the underlying assumptions and the data are. Why is their modelling so different from the modelling everywhere else?” The Center for Disease Control in the U.S., for example, forecasts a decrease in cases over the same timeline as Dr. Tam’s graph shows the rocket ship-like trajectory.
  24. I don’t know what to make of this news today. Variant spread could lead to renewed spike in COVID cases and third wave, Tam warns https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/variant-spread-could-lead-to-renewed-spike-in-covid-cases-and-third-wave-tam-warns Health officials can't explain Dr. Tam's "rocket ship" modelling https://www.calgarysun.com/news/health-officials-cant-explain-dr-tams-rocket-ship-modelling/wcm/c01c309d-4fe4-48ca-93bd-d32e614d62c1 Notice the modelling Dr Tam put forward shows that even if current restrictions remain in place, Covid is set to skyrocket. The grey line. She is pushing for even harsher lockdown measures than are currently in place.
  25. I was referring to an autoimmune response to Covid that some people are experiencing. The immune system misidentifies the problem and attacks the person. Doctors have had to treat these patients differently by slowing down their immune response. One of the more critical autoimmune reactions has been lung blood clotting and permanent lung damage. In March, when JO’s young friend got Covid, Doctors weren’t looking for it. Now they are. https://theconversation.com/an-autoimmune-like-antibody-response-is-linked-with-severe-covid-19-146255 In the earliest days of the pandemic, many immunologists, including me, assumed that patients who produced high quantities of antibodies early in infection would be free from disease. We were wrong. Several months into studying COVID-19, like other scientists, I’ve come to realize the picture is far more complicated. A recent research study published by my colleagues and me adds more evidence to the idea that in some patients, preventing dysregulated immune system responses may be as important as treating the virus itself. I am an immunologist at Emory University working under the direction of Dr. Ignacio Sanz, Emory’s chief of rheumatology. Immune dysregulation is our specialty. Inflammation in COVID-19 A harrowing turn in the COVID-19 pandemic occurred with the realization that the immune system’s power in fighting infection was sometimes pyrrhic. In patients with severe COVID-19 infections, evidence emerged that the inflammatory process used to fight the SARS-CoV-2 virus were, in addition to fighting the virus, potentially responsible for harming the patient.Clinical studies described so-called cytokine storms in which the immune system produced an overwhelming quantity of inflammatory molecules, antibodies triggering dangerous blood clots and inflammation of multiple organ systems, including blood vessels, in COVID-recovered children. All these were warning signs that in some patients, immune responses to the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which causes COVID-19, may have tipped from healing to destructive.
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