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mrlupin

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Everything posted by mrlupin

  1. https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-omicron-more-to-do-1.6267817 Ottawa requiring covid testing for some travelers.
  2. This would appear to be a situation where you would expect to see the term "accountable executive" within the box of accused. Seriously, after all the crap over the years justifying ever increasing executive salaries, the accountability seems weak at best.
  3. While trains are not an aviation topic, it's a direct competitor. https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/high-frequency-rail-project-1.6090930 It will be interesting to see this go ahead.
  4. Condition free funds worked wonders for Bombardier...
  5. What's wrong with Equity in the company? Isn't it a better arrangement (for Canadian citizens) than a corporate welfare "handout"?
  6. I wonder how the financial "help" will be given? Will the Fed get equity in the carriers? (like in the Lufthansa case) Will they find a way to lower operating cost through subsidies of airport infrastructure? maybe a reduction of NavCanada fees? What other strings will be attached? There isn't much information right now...
  7. Interesting read on business travel during and post pandemic. https://www.ft.com/content/867a5342-c94c-43f6-9783-a817443c9471
  8. The guy can barely put a sentence together when answering an unexpected journalist question. He doesn't appear well versed enough in the different subjects to discuss them. To give him the role of the puppet master pulling all the strings seem disingenuous. Harper seemed to be in that position, but to accuse Trudeau of that... The present PM appears to be a pretty spokesperson for the Liberal party but the person calling the shots?? The new minister will need a bit of time prior to getting acquainted with all that is going on in the transport world...
  9. That's a pretty nasty opinion piece... Lots of subjects mixed up in there. Social media influencers, moral compass, public health vs profitability, Air Canada Transat purchase, public money built flag carrier, lousy service and high prices, passenger horror stories, oversold flights, contempt for consumers, plane seating density, most complaints of any foreign airline and tax payer funded bailout. It's as if the journalist just vomited everything that irked him. It's a easy to single out AC the way the reporter did but what he is saying applies to most companies.
  10. Dagger, What are your thoughts on the possibility of government help to airlines having a negative effect on the recovery of these airlines. From a union centric point of view, of course the desire for wages to be paid and employment maintained is likely to be prominent. However what is the rational behind paying an employee to be at work if their is little demand for his labor? I think that's the point made above. The normal unemployment insurance channels should cover the needs of unemployed workers in the near term. From a business point of view, won't giving $$ to the airlines just prolong their quasi inevitable shrinking that will need to occur in order to "right size" prior to resuming growth? I'm sure all carriers have been shrinking in any way possible but what about long term commitments? Long term leases for aircraft that are unlikely to fly in the short term could prove to be an unsustainable drain on financial resources. If the government gives a package that increases liquidity at all carriers, won't that just be kicking the problem down the road? Just like paying for employees that aren't required by the present level of flying, don't those long term obligations need to be addressed? Is the near future outlook good enough to plan for a speedy recovery?
  11. Since it's the holidays and it involves Santa, an aircraft and an angry Moose...
  12. https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/boeing-wins-zero-new-orders-delivers-few-jets-and-loses-more-737-maxs/?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=owned_echobox_f&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR3uZFXE4ESAyWaLBHaoaoFA5CsLgI9wJSBRd2F4Oomh9nzTFo_LDzCynSY#Echobox=1605024239 The B737 flop... Over 1000 cancellations.
  13. Wrong type or engines on their -300. They are operating CF-6 equipped machines.
  14. What if Right sizing means getting rid of a large percentage of the fleet? Should a government help pay the rent or loan payments for underutilized/stored aircraft? I don't how many Westjet aircraft (or other airlines) are currently in long term storage but it seems foolish to throw money in that direction. Might be better off having the government subsidize NavCanada and help the airports in exchange of lower operating fees than to interfere while normality is far away and the airlines need to "right size" to this new normal.
  15. Dagger, Are you of the opinion that Canadian Carriers have "right sized" or adjusted to market demand? While many aircraft are parked in the desert, the airlines are still paying leases, or mortgage for most of these airplanes. These are not assets obligations that one can get rid of easily. I'm not suggesting CCAA is imminent, but outside of bankruptcy protection, how would a carrier "right size" itself? I see many airlines deferring new airframe deliveries but what about the existing fleet? How does an airline get rid of aircraft that are almost new or midlife in a market saturated with parked planes?
  16. Same principles at play... Airline self regulation. What could go wrong?
  17. I think management gets those figures on a daily basis. I doubt they can share it...
  18. The jury is still out on whether or not having had Covid19 will prevent further infections. Herd immunity requires that infected people become immune for that to be the case... Until that is determined, who knows what is the best strategy...
  19. Dito. Letting the IATA and/or airline industry lead on this issue would be a conflict of interest. Commercial interests shouldn't trump science or the recommendations of the professionals counseling the government. Cases are up again in Spain and France, in South America cases are exploding... In the US, they even have a summer camp where 260 kids are infected (the group that seemed immune previously). https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-infected-260-children-and-staff-at-georgia-sleep-away-camp-cdc-says-1.5048666
  20. Interesting read... https://outline.com/4n7zmJ https://www.economist.com/business/2020/05/02/imagine-the-post-pandemic-misery-of-business-travel?fsrc=scn/fb/te/bl/ed/bartlebyimaginethepostpandemicmiseryofbusinesstravelbusiness&fbclid=IwAR0N9x8VP40Uy7aOtof7WBnd5VUJvQYGQND3j86NGpndBptv5IEkA4UwVVs Bartleby Imagine the post-pandemic misery of business travel
  21. It's hard to tell for anyone. Economists do these sort of prediction and forecasting for a living and they still can get it wrong. It's hard to forecast macroeconomics situations that involve so many factors. Who knows how things will evolve... Unemployment has reached 13% in Canada. More than 7 million Canadians have applied for the Canada Emergency Response Benefit... We also have a Country wide real estate bubble that has been the elephant in the room room for years. Combine that with an average consumer debt to income ratio at 179% and it's an interesting mix. (We are among the highest in the world, the US had its ratio reset in 2008 it sits at around 100%, Canada just kept going). What does that mean? It's an added risk to the economy... If the real-estate bubble were to burst, then you would find the Canadian Housing and Mortgage Corp having issues with all these mortgage.... The agency has already forecast a double digit drop in the values of homes. (it varies by region) The CHMC is backstopped by the Canadian government... Hopefully they have sufficient money aside to handle any issues... On the consumer side, people that can't make mortgage payments don't travel much... The OECD reports Canada has one of the highest household debt to GDP ratio in the world. (#5 in the world at 105%, Link) Such a high level of debt renders Canada quite vulnerable to any economic disruption. The Canadian economy might recover in the same fashion as other world economies due to high levels of consumer debt. Speaking of government, the Canada central bank which tries to maintain inflation at 2% through monetary policy has it's Bank overnight lending rate down to between 0.25% and 0.50%. The record low rates are meant to stimulate the economy. They can't go much lower so their next tool is to print money, a form of quantitative easing... It's a tool but like anything else, it comes with consequences... Usually in the form of inflation. On the provincial front, we have a Canadian province trying to sell the world Oil at bargain prices and due to the present geopolitical situation and a transport issue they are struggling. Albertans aren't likely to be the globe hopping bunch they used to be... This pandemic is also likely to be the piece of straw that breaks the camels back for many small restoration outfits. They can't be expected to pay rent for months if revenue isn't coming in. Some will reopen, many will not... Also, think of dance schools, martial arts schools, community cultural centers, yoga studios, gyms, public pools, arenas... When will they open again? Right now the entire festival season is cancelled in Montreal and much of the ROC. Concerts are being postponed, organized sports are on hold, parades are cancelled... Our government chose to shut down the economy in order to assess and stabilize the situation with a potentially devastating virus. As far as I know, that hasn't been done before so it's hard to model for the impacts with a high degree of accuracy. What airline industry CEOs do have to predict tomorrow are sales reports of advanced ticket sales. They know that at this time last year they had sold x % or the July capacity, Y % of the August capacity etc... They know how many seats they are offering (I think I read that AC will be operating 25% of its normal capacity this summer) and what the market is buying (it would be interesting to see what percentage of the capacity they manage to sell). I'd imagine that since the Canadian Carriers will graciously hold and keep your money if things go sour unless you bought a more expensive refundable ticket, advance sales must be even harder to make... Boeing and Airbus know how many airlines have asked to defer deliveries so they too have a rough idea of how long it may take for air traffic to recover. I think 2 to 3 years is a definite possibility, it might be longer is the housing market tanks. We will find out soon enough...
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