mrlupin

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Everything posted by mrlupin

  1. https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/boeing-wins-zero-new-orders-delivers-few-jets-and-loses-more-737-maxs/?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=owned_echobox_f&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR3uZFXE4ESAyWaLBHaoaoFA5CsLgI9wJSBRd2F4Oomh9nzTFo_LDzCynSY#Echobox=1605024239 The B737 flop... Over 1000 cancellations.
  2. Wrong type or engines on their -300. They are operating CF-6 equipped machines.
  3. What if Right sizing means getting rid of a large percentage of the fleet? Should a government help pay the rent or loan payments for underutilized/stored aircraft? I don't how many Westjet aircraft (or other airlines) are currently in long term storage but it seems foolish to throw money in that direction. Might be better off having the government subsidize NavCanada and help the airports in exchange of lower operating fees than to interfere while normality is far away and the airlines need to "right size" to this new normal.
  4. Dagger, Are you of the opinion that Canadian Carriers have "right sized" or adjusted to market demand? While many aircraft are parked in the desert, the airlines are still paying leases, or mortgage for most of these airplanes. These are not assets obligations that one can get rid of easily. I'm not suggesting CCAA is imminent, but outside of bankruptcy protection, how would a carrier "right size" itself? I see many airlines deferring new airframe deliveries but what about the existing fleet? How does an airline get rid of aircraft that are almost new or midlife in a mark
  5. Same principles at play... Airline self regulation. What could go wrong?
  6. I think management gets those figures on a daily basis. I doubt they can share it...
  7. The jury is still out on whether or not having had Covid19 will prevent further infections. Herd immunity requires that infected people become immune for that to be the case... Until that is determined, who knows what is the best strategy...
  8. Dito. Letting the IATA and/or airline industry lead on this issue would be a conflict of interest. Commercial interests shouldn't trump science or the recommendations of the professionals counseling the government. Cases are up again in Spain and France, in South America cases are exploding... In the US, they even have a summer camp where 260 kids are infected (the group that seemed immune previously). https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-infected-260-children-and-staff-at-georgia-sleep-away-camp-cdc-says-1.5048666
  9. Interesting read... https://outline.com/4n7zmJ https://www.economist.com/business/2020/05/02/imagine-the-post-pandemic-misery-of-business-travel?fsrc=scn/fb/te/bl/ed/bartlebyimaginethepostpandemicmiseryofbusinesstravelbusiness&fbclid=IwAR0N9x8VP40Uy7aOtof7WBnd5VUJvQYGQND3j86NGpndBptv5IEkA4UwVVs Bartleby Imagine the post-pandemic misery of business travel
  10. It's hard to tell for anyone. Economists do these sort of prediction and forecasting for a living and they still can get it wrong. It's hard to forecast macroeconomics situations that involve so many factors. Who knows how things will evolve... Unemployment has reached 13% in Canada. More than 7 million Canadians have applied for the Canada Emergency Response Benefit... We also have a Country wide real estate bubble that has been the elephant in the room room for years. Combine that with an average consumer debt to income ratio at 179% and it's an interesting mix. (We a
  11. The corresponding press release... https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/air-canada-expands-its-cargo-only-flight-schedule-806054955.html?fbclid=IwAR0kdwytMLVTbiY_d9aGPbnhWOsm1sJ9RWa8ShsdTxtVV6Wy2Op9dMoQG_k
  12. What is the relevance to the Air Canada/Air Transat merger? That's a deal done in the late eighties when economic context was much different. If AC wanted A321, Airbus would be glad to produce them. They are presently reducing production and have tons of spare capacity and customers willing to defer their deliveries.
  13. ? So book your flight with us and if we can't get you there because of border restrictions we'll gladly give you a voucher or Aeroplan points? That sounds enticing...
  14. I wonder if their is a possibility of a conversion to freighter? The lifting capacity is huge and with so many getting parked you'd get spares and engines for peanuts.
  15. Looking at Flight Aware this morning to see what is going on for AC. https://flightaware.com/live/fleet/ACA From what I understand, the 7*** and the 2*** flights are cargo. What is the difference between the two? Not many passenger flights in the Air at the moment...
  16. If you give money to large stock market listed companies, aren't you saving the shareholders? Why give money? If the government is going to be sending money to companies, they should get the corresponding equity.... if that equity gives partial control then appoint someone to the board of directors. Lowering Landing fees, airport improvement taxes, Nav Canada fees and fuel taxes might be a better way to go about helping the various carriers.. That way they all get a similar treatment and a reduced cost environment.
  17. In the article, above there are aerial pictures of various storage airports with pre and after photos showing the quantity of parked planes increasing. You'd get an opposite effect if you took an aerial shot of the AC headquarters parking lot in YUL. To give context the parking lot there is probably just a bit bigger than 2X a Walmart lot. It used to be full and now its seldom filled to 10% capacity...
  18. I don't think you will see an AME surplus at least not on the medium term. The situation in maintenance is not the same as for pilots. To start with, take a company such as AC. You had 4500 pilots and probably 1300 AMEs. So the numbers of AMEs looking for a job is going to be much lower. AMEs are also not restricted to airlines... Many recycle their skills in automotive, heavy equipment, rail, manufacturing and general industry. A few things come to mind concerning the AME situation.... 1) What you are seeing now is not a structural surplus but a punctual one. The schools haven't bee
  19. From the headlines section: https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/exclusive-air-canadas-transat-buyout-fuels-investor-coronavirus-jitters-sources-2020-05-01 With the current state of affairs, one has to wonder why this purchase would move forward. It was originally performed at a time when AC was aggressively looking for extra capacity and qualified labor force. It now has over 80% of its fleet parked, thousands of employees on layoff and is likely flying less than 5% of its 2019 capacity. What would be the appeal of such a purchase now? Is a quasi monopolistic pricing ability wo
  20. Interesting interpretation... The government is extending credit and subsidizing wages for AC while the maple leaf carrier is sending aircraft to the US to park them. The daily and weekly maintenance of AC aircraft has been outsourced while contractual obligations forbid it at this time. And your interpretation is that the NDP thinks AC is sitting on a pile of money...
  21. On the US Airline Aid... https://newrepublic.com/article/157275/airline-bailout-strings-attached-harp An Airline Bailout Should Have More Strings Attached Than a Harp
  22. It's a delicate balancing act... The Canadian Household debt to income ratio is 176%. That is extremely high compared to most countries. World Debt/Income Data If that ratio wasn't so high, inflation could be used to reduce the debt load. The issue faced when the general population is under such a debt burden is that any increase in the lending rates is likely to result into an increase of debt default and a correction of any asset whose value inflated because of low rates. The central bank doesn't have much margin left.
  23. An article by Matt Taibbi... he mentions the airline stock buy backs in the past years... With all the money that was made by the airlines over the last years, it seem strange to give them money with no strings attached... https://taibbi.substack.com/p/the-sec-rule-that-destroyed-the-universe And via the Globe and Mail: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-an-air-canada-bailout-should-stick-in-the-craw-of-canadian-taxpayers/
  24. What a sight to see.... After years of densifying cabins with less seat pitch, less recline and thinner seats passengers will now benefit from extra spacing. Interesting times...