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Everything posted by dagger

  1. Listen, I once travelled from TLV and they required passengers to drop off baggage the night before at a downtown depot for security reasons. If you want to travel these days, going to a test site for a truly rapid test, getting your boarding pass or travel document stamped, is no big deal. BTW, who remembers when we needed to be vaccinated for a variety of diseases before being allowed into certain countries. Last night, I dug up my little yellow vaccination booklet. I was vaccinated for smallpox, yellow fever, typhoid and cholera. Many countries won't allow you in without a visa, which
  2. This seems to build on the Toronto test program where volunteers were asked to send in test swabs from home. That didn't shorten the quarantine period, but it did show that hardly any arrivals from overseas either had the virus or became infectious while in quarantine. I'd still prefer it if passengers were tested at the airport overseas, say 48 hours in advance, then again on arrival in Canada. That would mathematically reduce the chances of rapid tests failing to pick up positive case. I also suspect that testing outbound passengers from Canada to points overseas would help keep that channel
  3. It wouldn't matter - the government could have strung out the airlines for a while, insisting that they take downsizing actions up front. Instead, the aid package explicitly required them to maintain flights and employment.
  4. I'm sure the government's lack of early action reflects the poor standing of the industry with the public on issues like refunds. However, I think the government was also right not to rush in with aid like the US and Europeans did. Those first tranches of aid were either premature, essentially subsidizing unneeded capacity and saving airline shareholders. In Canada, there were measures for people and small business, more so than for large corporations. As bad as things have gotten, large corporations have not filed for bankruptcy. Large landlords have absorbed rental hits rather well, even if
  5. I'd still rather see the government trade loan guarantees for some of the airlines' accrued tax losses. Nor do I know if Onex is ready to give up total control, so it might campaign against a bailout structure of that kind. While most ire about bailing out carriers will end up pointed at AC, I suspect there will be opposition on the left (NDP for sure) about bailing out Onex on this. Certainly, if the govt wants to take a 20% share of the airlines it helps, it also suggests to me they first have to approve the Transat takeover. (I mean, if they became TS shareholders and then rejected the merg
  6. I reiterate that I would like to see the government cash out some of the airlines tax losses. I imagine that AC alone will end up with a multi-billion dollar tax loss this year. If you trade government guaranteed loans for tax losses, the airlines will be paying tax again sooner once the market turns around. They'd also be able to recover their tax losses by repaying the loan and a fee.
  7. Well, WS is getting out of Quebec City.
  8. How United Airlines Is Trying to Plan Around a Pandemic The airline has to figure out which planes to stash in the desert and which ones to park at airports without knowing when demand will recover. By Niraj Chokshi Oct. 15, 2020Updated 5:49 p.m. ET A United Airlines plane undergoes inspection at O’Hare International Airport in Chicago before it is cleared for flight. The airline is trying to predict where travelers will fly, a challenge in the best of times.Lucy Hewett for The New York Times A United Airlines plane undergoes in
  9. As the WHO notes, herd immunity is achieved via vaccination. If Covid was just a cold, you'd have a point. We wouldn't care. But besides death and hospitalization rates and costs, we have come to recognize that there is a phenomenon, more widespread with each passing week, of people who suffer long term symptoms that render them unable to work. These are the so-called long haulers who suffer cardio-vascular or other damage that will have an ongoing economic cost to our healthcare system, and allowing the virus to run rampant as opposed to taking measures to contain its spread will have a growi
  10. Taking the forecast from UAL today that biz travel will only return to normal in 2024 (I'm more bullish, I think it will be mid-2022), I'd say some countries have wasted a massive pile of money by trying to sustain too much airline capacity. They may need second and third rounds of bailouts. I don't know when and to what extent our government will act, but I do suspect if it does, it will target a level of activity sufficient to meet current needs, not some pie-in-the-sky notion of imminent recovery that motivated bailouts in places like the US and Germany.
  11. Again, I disagree. As fast as the virus seems to be moving, it has still only impacted a small minority of the population in any country, and if you don't pump the brakes, it can still take years to infect a majority. As for the economy, I'm a contrarian. I believe - more so with every passing day - that once we reach herd immunity via a vaccine, the recovery will be robust, faster than expected, because there is enormous pent-up demand, and while much is rightly written about people in greater need because of the pandemic, little has been written about people unable to spend money they
  12. No, no one is going to a restaurant or bar when cases zoom through the roof. Industries will see absenteeism rocket along with case counts if no efforts are made to curb them. No conferences, trade shows, or other large scale gatherings are possible while the virus is growing exponentially. Sweden had among the laxest approach to the virus but has suffered economically along with its neighbours because the global economy is so integrated. The problem with walking the fine line approach is that by the time you take action in response to a surge in cases, you are lagging the virus itself.
  13. I think it was one of several prerequisites, as was a revised Transat deal. If the government is to support the industry, it must be based on some kind of sustainable basis going forward. Trying to underpin excess capacity or unreasonably expensive takeovers isn't and never was the answer. You only have to look to the first US bailout package which kept most everyone on the job and a lot of aircraft flying uneconomically in the belief the industry would begin a sustained recovery this fall based on the virus impact receding. So what happened? The virus receded during the summer, but
  14. Westjet suspending all services to Atlantic Canada and Quebec City: https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/westjet-pulls-back-from-atlantic-canada-878245020.html Airline makes more tough decisions, eliminating service to Fredericton, Moncton, Sydney, Charlottetown and Quebec City; makes additional job cuts CALGARY, AB, Oct. 14, 2020 /CNW/ - Today, WestJet announced it will be indefinitely suspending operations to Moncton, Fredericton, Sydney and Charlottetown, while significantly reducing service to Halifax and St. John's. The suspension eliminates more than 100 fli
  15. Deferring again - now to Dec 15 https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/porter-airlines-extends-service-restart-to-dec-15-821809625.html
  16. The Atlantic has a great article on why rapid tests are not the answer for primary detection, too many false negatives and false positives, but they might be good in situations where they complement mask wearing and other measures. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/10/do-rapid-antigen-tests-have-accuracy-problem/616681/
  17. I am reasonably confident that the Liberal government - or any federal government under the circumstances - would want the shareholders of the airlines to bear the brunt of the storm for as long as possible. Bailing out companies early on, after several fat years prior to the pandemic (as the US has done) would have been deeply unpopular. It would not have wanted to bail out, AC, for example, in a manner that would have enabled TA to resist getting a big haircut on the acquisition by AC. The optics are improving now that airlines have parked a lot of planes, laid off employees, and in the
  18. Air Canada release https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/air-canada-and-transat-a-t-inc-conclude-amended-transaction-for-combination-of-the-two-companies-872396338.html Reduced $5.00 purchase price reflects post-COVID-19 reduction in airline values Air Canada approves $250 million of increased borrowings by Transat pending transaction completion Transat Board of Directors unanimously approves amended transaction and recommends shareholder approval MONTREAL, Oct. 10, 2020 /CNW Telbec/ - Air Canada announced toda
  19. Transat release https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/transat-a-t-inc-announces-revised-acquisition-transaction-with-air-canada-859974025.html MONTREAL, Oct. 10, 2020 /CNW Telbec/ - Transat A.T. Inc. ("Transat" or the "Corporation") announced today that it has revised its arrangement agreement with Air Canada to reflect current market and economic conditions and the devastating impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the worldwide airline, travel and tourism industries. Under the terms of the binding agreement they have entered into, unanimously approved by the Board of Dire
  20. Launched with six orders. Offers up to 12 hours of flying time https://simpleflying.com/airbus-reveals-stunning-business-jet-based-on-the-a220-100/
  21. Realistically, our borders ought to remain closed to non-essential travel for a while longer, but we are inching closer to the point where a series of rapid tests - prior to departure from an overseas point, and continuing with an arrival test and a final test at the potential end of a shortened quarantine - say 4-5 days proves one is still negative. I haven't figured out how that last test ought to work, whether you need to rely on the honour system, or change someone a fee for the public health authority to come around and administer a rapid test where you are living/staying.
  22. The three pilot unions - Unifor, ALPA and ACPA - to hold a joint press conference tomorrow morning.
  23. That's probably true for a jurisdiction with high gas prices to begin with. Sweden's experience over the past 30 years is that the carbon tax has either helped lower the country's total emissions or coincided with the drop in emissions. In that time, Sweden has enjoyed steady economic growth.
  24. Airbus' sketches of hydrogen-fuelled aircraft were unveiled this wee, and Leeham has written them up with thoughts on how this will proceed. https://leehamnews.com/2020/09/25/bjorns-corner-the-challenges-of-hydrogen-part-10-airbus-hydrogen-zeroe-concepts/ Click on the link to see the images Bjorn’s Corner: The challenges of Hydrogen. Part 10. Airbus’ Hydrogen ZEROe concepts September 25, 2020, ©. Leeham News: In our series on Hydrogen as an energy store for airliners, we look at the three hydrogen-based concept aircraft Airbus presented this week.
  25. There is a lot of work getting under way on hydrogen powered flight - a concept likely to lead to demonstrators late in this decade and commercial products in the middle of the next. Battery powered electric flight is likely to be limited to small aircraft, short hauls, because of battery weight. For larger aircraft flying most routes, hydrogen for internal combustion seems like the more likely direction. Either hydrogen burned like Jet-A, or hydrogen driving a generator to make electricity onboard. (Think of a diesel electric railway locomotive - the Diesel engine generates electricity to pow