dagger

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Everything posted by dagger

  1. I would think with the shorter campaign this time - and everyone knowing the date of the vote – that maintenance schedules can be safely juggled if necessary to free up an aircraft for chartering. Also, AC will be flying NHL teams again, and the hockey schedule doesn't get intense until mid-October.
  2. How difficult was it to get a divorce in those times? I'd think today one doesn't have to go to such extremes to exit a marriage. Even where a spouse murders another today, there usually is more to it than just a desire to be with someone else.
  3. Not even one-tenth of what you say. You're being ridiculous.
  4. There is no scenario where Air Canada turns over LHR slots to WS. There is an IATA bid process and WS knows how to go about it.
  5. Air Canada is the only Canadian operator to LHR and this deal changes nothing. It has been the only Canadian carrier flying to London for decades because LHR is severely slot constrained, plus it has high landing fees and terminal charges which make it less suitable for charter or low-cost operators. In terms of flying to London, both Westjet and Transat fly to Gatwick.
  6. Sooner probably means mid-2020 or later since this deal isn't likely to be approved until Q2 2020.
  7. The government is doing what I would call an exhaustive review of the AT purchase that could last into Q2 2020. I expect that once the feds, including the Competition Bureau, get through with it, AC will have made some concessions in order to make the deal fly, and ,make it bullet proof. There is no way AC wants to own or manage hotels in the Caribbean or travel offices anywhere. It won't keep a Terminal 3 presence in Toronto, and might well agree to airport changes elsewhere (I haven't given that any thought). It will likely make job and possibly regional flying concessions to the Legault government to get its unequivocal endorsement.
  8. It's more technical than anything, the deal in some form will certainly happen, it's just that ONEX may have to make legal changes to satisfy the government, perhaps maintaining a tracking mechanism to show ongoing compliance with the law and a mechanism to intervene if stock sales render the company non-compliant. Basically, if Air Canada didn't object now, it wouldn't be in a good position to intervene years down the road if a sale of WS shares did go over the foreign ownership limit For everyone else, employees, customers, communities, nothing is going to change because of this challenge.
  9. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-air-canada-files-challenge-with-canadian-transportation-agency-over/ In its letter, Air Canada argues that foreign co-investors could take larger stakes in Onex subsidiary Kestrel Bidco Inc. − which is the actual purchaser − and take on greater control of the Canadian airline. “The opaque nature” of the private-equity structure “obfuscates where actual control in fact will, in fact, rest,” Air Canada said. Air Canada also argues that Onex does not have sufficient controls in place to assure WestJet remains Canadian. For instance, it says that although Mr. Schwartz indirectly holds 100 per cent of Onex’s multiple voting shares (MVS), “the MVS structure provides no assurance that this will continue to be the case. The potential for the MVS extinguishment is real given Mr. Schwarts’ current career stage. At 77 years old and having served as CEO since 1983, his eventual retirement should not be considered a remote eventuality.” Air Canada said in its letter to Canada’s transportation regulator that “due to the structure of the transaction and the capital and corporate governance structure of Onex, the transaction may result in an undertaking that is not ‘Canadian.’ "
  10. A clean sheet product will take a decade.
  11. Wall Street Journal suggesting that flight checks have raised new issues that require additional software fixes, and that the final software platform certification will be pushed out a bit further.
  12. https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/transat-s-shareholders-overwhelmingly-approve-the-arrangement-with-air-canada-860941611.html Also News Releases Air Canada Welcomes Transat Shareholders Approval MONTREAL, Aug. 23, 2019 /CNW Telbec/ - Air Canada is pleased by the announcement, earlier today, by Transat A.T. Inc. ("Transat") of the approval, by a majority of nearly 95% of its shareholders, of its Arrangement Agreement with Air Canada under which Air Canada will acquire all its issued and outstanding shares. "We are pleased with the outcome of Transat's special meeting and grateful to Transat shareholders for this overwhelming show of support," said Calin Rovinescu, President and Chief Executive Officer of Air Canada. "We will build a combined company greater than the sum of its parts that we can all be proud of. We now look forward to engaging with Transport Canada and the Competition Bureau to secure the required approvals to complete the transaction and welcome the opportunity to demonstrate the many benefits it will bring." "This is the best possible outcome for all stakeholders," added Mr. Rovinescu. "For shareholders of Transat and Air Canada, the combination delivers excellent value, while also providing increased job security for both companies' employees through greater growth prospects. Air Canada plans to preserve the Transat and Air Transat brands and maintain the Transat head office and its key functions in Montreal. Travellers will benefit from the combined companies' enhanced capabilities in the highly competitive, global leisure travel market and from access to new destinations, more connecting traffic and increased frequencies. Customers and the Quebec economy will derive maximum advantage of having a Montreal-based, growth-oriented global champion in aviation, the world's most international business, spurring more employment and securing Montreal's position as a leader among world aviation centres." Plan of Arrangement The acquisition will proceed by way of a court-approved plan of arrangement pursuant to the Canada Business Corporations Act. The transaction remains subject to court and regulatory approvals and the other closing conditions set out in the Arrangement Agreement. If such approvals are obtained and conditions are met, the transaction is expected to be completed in early 2020. Further details regarding the transaction are provided in Transat's management proxy circular for the special meeting of shareholders and in the Arrangement Agreement and the Amending Agreement entered into between Air Canada and Transat, copies of which are available on SEDAR at www.sedar.com.
  13. https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/sierra-nevada-to-restart-dornier-328-production-in-g-460299/ Sierra Nevada to restart Dornier 328 production in Germany 15 AUGUST, 2019 SOURCE: FLIGHT DASHBOARD BY: MICHAEL GUBISCH LONDON US manufacturer Sierra Nevada intends to restart production of the Dornier 328 turboprop in Leipzig. The regional government of Saxony, where the city is located, has confirmed the plan. A press-conference invite issued by Saxony's state ministry for economy, work and transport says that Sierra Nevada and its Munich-based subsidiary 328 Support Services – the aircraft's type-certificate holder – will on 21 August disclose establishment of "a new aircraft manufacturer" at Leipzig/Halle airport. The project will be announced "in presence of representatives of [Germany's] federal government and Saxony's state government" during a national aviation conference at the regional airport, the ministry says in the invite. It asserts that the project's location in Leipzig will "strengthen" German aviation "as a whole". A Dornier 328 turboprop featuring "different configurations" will be on display during the event, to demonstrate the aircraft's "versatility", the invite adds. Powered by two Pratt & Whitney Canada PW119C turboprops, the 30-seat aircraft was developed and initially produced by now-defunct Dornier. A first flight was conducted in 1991. Fairchild acquired the German manufacturer in 1996 and introduced a jet-powered version with two PW306B turbofans. Production ceased after the collapse of the developmental Fairchild Dornier 728 regional jet programme in 2002. Cirium's Fleet Analyzer shows that 58 Dornier 328 turboprops and 50 Dornier 328-Jets – including nine business aircraft – are in service today. Some 19 of the turboprops and nine of the jets have been stored, while 79 have been retired. The largest operators of the in-service aircraft are the US Air Force (20 units), Danish carrier Sun-Air (12), German-based Private Wings Flugcharter (10), and US-based Ultimate Jetcharters (eight). During the 2016 Farnborough air show, Sierra Nevada disclosed a plan to restart production of both Dornier 328 turboprops and jets through the manufacturer's Turkish subsidiary TRJet. The US manufacturer had a target of delivering in 2019 the first aircraft under a tentative deal with Turkey's government for 50 units. Sierra Nevada and 328 Support Services have not responded to requests for comment on the Leipzig plan.
  14. https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/air-canada-announces-first-two-new-routes-to-be-operated-with-game-changing-airbus-a220-300-860435906.html Air Canada Announces First Two New Routes To Be Operated With Game Changing Airbus A220-300 (Editor's Note: First images of the interior of Air Canada's new A220 are available at https://www.aircanada.com/ca/en/aco/home/about/media/photos-logos.html ) MONTREAL, Aug. 14, 2019 /CNW Telbec/ - Air Canada today announced the first two new routes to be operated with the Airbus A220-300, the only non-stop service between Montreal and Seattle and between Toronto and San Jose, California, both beginning in spring 2020. As well, the carrier also provided a first look at the interior features of its newest aircraft, which will offer customers a choice of Business and Economy Class service, its newest in-flight entertainment system, onboard Wi-Fi and more.
  15. Norwegian is stopping flights to Canada, which makes the AT deal look a tiny bit better.
  16. I'll still be interested to see what AC does with the hotel assets. I am far from certain CR wants to play in that area, unless he looks at some kind of REIT where AC gets shares in a venture with an experienced property owner leasing to known hotel brands. If AC sells the land holdings off, and for how much... that will go a long way to telling me whether Mach had any chance to make money off its proposal, and how much Transat the airline is worth shorn of those non-airline assets.
  17. The Quebec securities body has just blocked the Mach bid and ordered the company to return any shares it has received, so now it's indeed over. \\https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/the-tribunal-administratif-des-marches-financiers-quebec-blocks-groupe-mach-s-scheme-891235492.html
  18. Worth every penny. Calin took the helm of AC at a low point, steered it through near bankruptcy, and took a penny stock to $44 in less than a decade. He also undid most of the damage to AC the airline caused by Milton's selloffs. He used the termination dates on the Aeroplan and Chorus contracts to reintegrate the former on the cheap and get significantly better terms from the latter, plus make an investment in Chorus' future. He was rather draconian with heavy maintenance, which always lost money for AC when done in-house. Today's it's all outsourced. He rescued the existing pension plans, and has reasonably labour relations to work with. No airline is more exposed to the 737 MAX issue right now, and I fully expect him to teach Boeing a lesson in how to compensate an airline partner for screwing up this badly. He's been reasonably circumspect about the damage done by the MAX grounding, but from what I know about Calin, he's likely been plotting how to get the best form of compensation, knowing that how AC reacts - as a non-American carrier, with a solid engineering and planning reputation and a tendency to operate a split Boeing/Airbus fleet - will influence airlines around the world. As an early CSeries buyer, he won points from the feds, which helped him out of the ACTS legal legacy; the best part of the CSeries buy, however, is about to begin, as this aircraft has outperformed expectations and - critical to the world going forward - is the greenest aircraft in commercial service. From a PR perspective, operating the A220-300 - a Canadian-designed and -built plane with the best emissions and operating cost profile and lowest noise footprint - will be a nice image polisher for AC, and I expect the airline to milk the PR value like crazy. Customers love the plane, and don't underestimate the value of a low noise footprint aircraft in managing curfews.
  19. Also, AC stock at 46.69 as I write this, so the market clearly liked the numbers announced today. I didn't listen to the conference call, but I wonder how China impacted results. Has to be a bit negative. I'll have to check the MD&A
  20. AC said it could come sooner than Jan, but for planning purposes, they are being prudent. And even when the green light is received, it will take several months before all aircraft on the property or sitting at Boeing ready for delivery are flying, given the time that will be required to get the necessary flight crews ready and in the case of fins beyond the current 24 at AC, sufficiently trained.
  21. Air Canada was more circumspect on the Max financial impact - just a comment from Calin that he expects Boeing to make good on the losses. In contrast, Ed Sims was a little more explicit about Westjet's situation https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/financing/westjet-ceo-says-boeing-737-max-grounding-a-substantial-loss-ahead-of-buyout-236641/
  22. This is a silly discussion. Yes, Bombardier has had a lot of execution errors, but don't discount the successes. The Q400 has sold extremely well, the CRJ defined the category, and now the CSeries/A220 is headed for strong commercial success. On the biz jet side, the new Global 7500/8000 long range series was quietly developed without the big promissory misses of the CSeries and is also looking like a big winner for the Canadian aerospace sector. So yes, by all means, criticize Bombardier for its failures, but at least have the intellectual rigour to also acknowledge its outright successes.
  23. The only problem I have with that scenario is that it better not stiff their customers or they will have a hard trouble retaining some of them.
  24. I'd watch WS and AC earnings for an indication of how much compensation Boeing is going to owe, either as a cash reimbursement or as discounts, favours, or some combination thereof. The US carriers may be more circumspect of how they handle Boeing - you risk the wrath of the Twit(ter) in chief if you undermine US manufacturing - but the Canadian carriers are going to pin the tail on the Boeing donkey. They may use nice language, but ought to be fairly transparent about the damage being done to their balance sheets. WS is an all-Boeing airline so it may handle things a bit differently than AC. But AC flies both Boeing and Airbus, and Calin is really litigious - meaning he's not afraid to sue. The lawsuit won't be announced upfront, but when it comes, I expect him to go that route and then settle out of court with Boeing.