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Turbofan

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Turbofan last won the day on June 21 2021

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  1. If they didn’t think of it then that just spells incompetence. People were predicting this late last fall when the massive Omicron wave started. After a massive wave of infection, PCR testing no longer provides viable information because it finds it everywhere. To be relying on this test this far into the Pandemic doesn’t make sense. The US stopped for this very reason. A PCR test is considered 98% accurate whereas an antigen test about 85%. That’s the reliability. However once you have a population that is largely infected by Covid, PCR testing will find widespread infection even in those who have recovered. That isn’t considered a false positive even though no infection still exists. if you have a population where 50% of the population has had Omicron in the last 6 months, PCR tests will find 50% of the population infected. But the infection only last a few days. 90% of those who tested positive, are probably recovered. The end result is a wildly inaccurate test to determine infection status in the moment. Trudeau was asked about why he was keeping PCR testing last fall for these very reasons when other countries were dropping the requirement. Answer. To discourage travel. That sounds to me like a man who knew exactly what he was setting up. The fact that he has done nothing to reverse his decision lends to the idea that he is quite okay with what he has set up. It all looks very callous to me. Very similar to how he brought in the PCR test to begin with. Remember the politicians travelling Christmas 2020? Then the travel shaming. All the politicians got home and Trudeau brought in the PCR test with limited warning. It stranded Canadians in some places where you couldn’t get a PCR. Trudeau rose in the polls though by looking tough.
  2. https://youtu.be/no6sKozG6gE Pretty good news clip on Canadians getting stranded at the end of their vacation because of a positive PCR. There is however an important piece of information being omitted from almost all news coverage and I am unsure why. The point that we have no idea if any of these people were actually sick at the time or if the PCR simply picked up a prior infection from months earlier. Because Omicron is dominant and extremely contagious, it is doubtful that a single member of a family testing positive is actually finding a live virus. Rather it is highly probable that it is finding a previously unknown infection. If you are planning to travel, PCR test prior to leaving to mitigate the risk. I get that the Canadian government has come out against non essential travel. What I don’t understand is why the Canadian Government has set Canadians up for failure while abroad and not told them. There are people travelling for essential reasons who are getting caught in the same net. Is this simply politics? Those who travel are made examples of? Trudeau doesn’t have to be the bad guy who shutdown vacations after they were paid for? Or was the Government not smart enough to put two and two together? They didn’t see how a PCR test for return travel, this late in a pandemic, was simply going to have ridiculous consequences for Canadians abroad? All of them. Not just those travelling for leisure.
  3. Moeman, The original rule. From day 14 after testing positive, to day 180 a person is exempt from a return PCR test. The reason for this is that once you have Covid an individual can continue to test positive for up to 6 months. 0-14 days no travel. 15-180 days exempt from return PCR. 181 days and beyond. PCR required again. new rule as of Jan 15. 14 days becomes 10. I’m pretty sure that if you show a positive PCR on Jan 15 that is 10 days old you are good to go.
  4. I’m not sure where to find the article now, but Trudeau was asked about the rational for PCR testing a few months ago when things looked to be getting better. Answer to “Discourage travel” PCR tests are so sensitive that they can detect a prior infection for up to 6 months. This is why the 180 day exemption exists. After this Omicron wave many many many many …….. people will potentially test negative on an antigen test (looking for a live virus) while leaving and then positive on a PCR test on return due to a previous infection within the last 6 months. I have done a few Mexico trips in the last month. Every flight has some people getting left behind to quarantine. In most cases the rest of the family was negative and was permitted to go home. This is indicative of a previous unknown infection. Clearly they didn’t have Omicron in that moment. The entire family would have also been positive. Based on the stated rational by Trudeau, I would say it is working as designed. He has set Canadians up to fail the PCR while abroad and be made examples of. He knows this. He knows full well many of them aren’t currently infected. The public doesn’t understand and jumps on the anti travel bandwagon. The US and now the UK are using antigen tests which look only for a live virus. They are not as accurate as a PCR. With that said if you think finding a 5 month old Covid infection is a false positive? I do personally. Then the antigen test looking for the live virus is far more accurate. It all depends on how you want to spin that argument. The only safe way for Canadians to travel now is with a positive PCR test that exempts them from the return PCR test for 180 days. The next catch. A positive PCR from your provincial health care probably won’t count as proof. They will only send you an email or text in most cases. That isn’t sufficient proof. If you go to a Pharmacy and pay for a PCR. Then test positive. That will get you the 180 day exemption. It’s by design that the Canadian airline industry is once again wynding down while other jurisdictions are permitted to move on. There will be no return to normal as far as travel goes so long as the PCR test remains required. It's that simple. So long as it is in place it will find old infections and strand people all over the world who are not actually I'll.
  5. Wonder what is up. https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news/105665-canadas-flair-airlines-in-court-action-over-max-leases Court Action by Flair shareholder over expansion and Max 8 leases.
  6. At a certain point we all have to transition from lockdown to living with Covid. Transition to dealing with it like every other risk in our lives. Ethically you want everyone to have had an opportunity to have both doses first. But at a certain point people who choose not to vaccinate, can not have the world in lockdown forever. Like smoking. Warn them. Give them free programs to quit. But if they don't want to? They have to live with it. The US thinks along these lines more strongly than Canada. In the fall there will be a small forth wave of those unvaccinated. Nothing will shut down. You can't. If you shut down for a wave of unvaccinated you will never reopen. There will be stories of Joe down the street who didn't vaccinate. The reality of transitioning to risk management will push more to vaccinate when they ask themselves" am I managing this risk appropriately"? In the mean time the Joe's of this world will be a shame. I hope people are taking seriously the choice not to vaccinate and have weighed the risk.
  7. I think in general you nailed it for every jurisdiction. How much spread has any particular area had? We have no idea. There are so many variables. Location is a big one. Where you near a hot spot. Population density. Lockdown response and severity. A year into this Manitoba is not anything like New York or Texas. Lockdown is to slow or stop the spread. It’s a delay tactic. Performed well, with a successful vaccine roll out, it will hopefully minimized severe outcomes. The problem is you are kind of like dry kindling waiting for a match, while waiting for that vaccine immunity. It’s a slower approach. There may be more waves of the virus until herd immunity takes hold. On an Island like New Zealand or Australia it has work well. Less lockdown means faster spread. Sooner heard immunity as a result of natural vaccination. The problem is this approach is kind of like taking the match to dry kindling yourself. A rapid large spike in sever outcomes. But is faster. Sweden for instance only had two waves and reached immunity fast but had over 14,000 deaths for a population of 10million. Finland, Norway and Denmark using lockdowns, has had a much slower time reaching immunity but had deaths at 967, 790, 2500 respectfully with populations in the mid 5million range. I think the post Mortem will be pretty clear. Lockdown waiting for vaccine immunity saved lives. It’s slower, the US is open and we are not, but it saves lives
  8. This legislation puts Manitoba in charge of when people from other Provinces, or countries, are permitted free access to Manitoba. Manitoba’s move is about control. It’s a politician thing. It is targeted at having control over free movement even if other jurisdictions approve it. The Federal Government is no longer in charge of when our international boarder opens and free movement returns within all of Canada. Now we need approval from multi layers of government with regard to Manitoba. If every Province did this we would have a hodgepodge of reopening rules and bureaucracy post pandemic that would imperil economic recovery and limit civil liberties. Its possible Manitoba may intend to open to other Provinces, but how? The Federal vaccine passport is meant for international travel only. Many Canadians won’t bother as they don’t travel. At least three provinces are not going to follow suit. What about foreigners? The Federal Government is about to erect a vaccine requirement for entry into Canada. Why would Manitoba tell these people they have to quarantine? A group of fully vaccinated US fishermen is safer than a group of Canadians who are probably 70% vaccinated. Maybe that’s it. Maybe Manitoba plans to keep unvaccinated Canadians out? That is a charter violation. You can get away with infringing on civil liberties during a pandemic. Not after. The road block Manitoba has put up is for one reason. Palliser is saying “I have control”. What he does with that control we will have to see. But he didn’t bring in a Provincial vaccine passport not to use it. Again it doesn’t surprise me that one of the more isolationist Provinces during the Pandemic has chosen this route just as reopening is being talked about. So far it is simply one Province. So far the Maritimes has not followed suit. They have a lot more to lose in tourism than Manitoba so I’m hoping they don’t follow their lead. There is also the risk of this turning into an interprovincial pissing match. That would produce the same unwanted results.
  9. Possibly. This is what Intergovernmental affairs minister, LeBlanc, had to say on the matter of vaccine passports yesterday. https://globalnews.ca/news/7936027/icao-vaccine-passports/ “We have been undertaking significant discussions with the European Union and with the United States,” LeBlanc said in French. “But Prime Minister Trudeau, and the premiers of the provinces and territories have agreed on the importance of having a national document proving the vaccination while respecting that medical record information belongs to the provinces and territories.” Why would the government of Manitoba announce a provincial vaccine passport on the eve of a national vaccine passport? According to Minister LeBlanc Manitoba knows all about the plans. So why the sudden multi layered approach? An approach that would effectively nullify a Canadian or foreign vaccine passport within Manitoba. The multi layered governmental approach to containing Covid has the potential to be problematic to unwind. Here is a different issue, same problem, starting to play out in Alberta. We have mask by laws in Calgary, Edmonton and Alberta as a whole. The opening plan for Alberta takes masks to voluntary in phase 3. Calgary and Edmonton have indicated they don’t agree and may/likely leave their mask bylaws in place. This type of thing is probably going to play out all over Canada if hesitancy is permitted to lead to roadblocks. What is needed is strong Federal leadership. The unwinding of multi layered governmental laws could be very problematic for business. In particular anything to do with the movement of people.
  10. FWIW Alberta has also stated a Covid vaccine passport is off the table. They would however provide documentation for whatever is need for international travel. So I guess no Alberta or BC guests in Manitoba even after exiting the Pandemic. My son lives in North Eastern Ontario. Can I drive through Manitoba? What if my car breaks down and I need a hotel? What if I’m hungry? I have my vaccination receipts from Alberta. How much is the Manitoba fine if my fully vaccinated body gets caught buying gas? Crap my licence plate will out me too. Yikes just looked up the fines in Manitoba. Maybe I will just go around through the US when the boarder opens…..…..just a minute. I wonder if that is the intent to begin with. https://www.gov.mb.ca/asset_library/en/covid/archives/restoring/enforcement.pdf
  11. Yes. But BC also recognized their jurisdiction didn’t allow them to stop interprovincial travel when they considered it. They stuck with limiting travel within BC only. Instead they decided to close the Trans Canada highway for construction east of Golden. Creative.?
  12. Other than the Maritimes why would it matter if other Provinces recognize it or not? Manitoba residents are free to move about most of the country without quarantine as it is. The only perk that comes with the passport is for Manitoba residents and only when entering Manitoba. It simply has no relevance outside of Manitoba. We have four provinces in this country that have been more isolationist than the others. Exiting the pandemic it would be natural to expect that one of these provinces would be the likely source of further isolationist legislation. Now we have one of those provinces enacting legislation, that if enacted in all provinces would mean, interprovincial quarantine for everyone, regardless of vaccination status, all the time.
  13. To set the record I’m not anti vax. My first dose was also AZ. Pfizer was my second. Will have to wait and see how that plays out with these passports. But that’s another topic. I also support the honey approach to getting people vaccinated. Perks, positive feedback work. But I read Manitoba’s vaccine passport as a double edged sword. Positive incentive to vaccinate for Manitoba residents, stay away for everyone else. I guess we will see, but other provinces following suit could turn into and interprovincial nightmare for travellers.
  14. That’s my point. Is this where things are heading? Interprovincial travel requiring a vaccination passport? I can see crossing an international boarder. I can see the Federal Government setting policy. But this is a domestic jurisdiction. Impacting freedom of movement of Canadians within Canada. Even fully vaccinated Canadians. A multi layered bureaucratic approach will also stop international travel. Who would bother coming to Canada if other provinces followed suit? Of course what I see as a flaw someone else may see as a feature. It looks to me that Manitoba has decided to discourage travel for the foreseeable future. 180 degrees to opening up. Essentially taking down one fence while putting up another. I hope other Provinces don’t follow suit. Doing so, from a practical perspective, would close Canada to foreigners. Allowing Domestic jurisdictions ( from a practical perspective) to to usurp the authority of Federal Jurisdictions in setting freedom of movement. Where does it stop. Maybe Toronto brings in their vaccine passport. Then Mississauga. Then Oakville. Creating a bureaucratic juggernaut. I hope the response to this is simply, fine do your own thing. We just won’t go there. And leave it a that. If other Provinces decide to take Manitoba’s lead?
  15. https://news.gov.mb.ca/news/index.html?item=51422 I find it hard to believe that Manitoba would spend the time and money on this initiative unless they planned on instituting for a period of time. On the surface it touts reopening. But on further scrutiny it looks as though if you are not from Manitoba, regardless of vaccination status, you will have to quarantine for 14 days on arrival. This looks more like a preemptive position against reopening in many aspects. What would happen if every province did this? Thoughts?
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