Turbofan

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Turbofan last won the day on June 30

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  1. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/sweden-unveils-promising-covid-19-data-as-new-cases-plunge-1.1471871 Sweden is interesting. Highly criticized for not implementing a lockdown and having a higher death rate as a result. Defenders of the position was to get Covid over and done with. Death rates would equalize with other countries over the long run, as those countries experienced more waves. We may find our fortunes in Canada reversed in the not too distant future. A successful lock down may leave our population susceptible to infection as the US reaches higher immunity levels faster. I am not talking about herd immunity. Herd immunity takes much higher percentages. If 25% of a population has antibodies then the strain on health care drops by 25%. All the countries that have been hit hard on the first go around with Covid will have an advantage moving forward. In Canada exposure is thought to be around 1%. We may be like the three little pigs, very happy with ourselves that we saw the wolf, way off in the distance early. Problem is the wolf is now just sitting outside. Waiting for us to emerge. This is a marathon. Long range thinking needs to be used. Long range outcomes optimized. The most successful outcomes could very well be in those countries that manage the spread just below their Health care systems capacity. Those that get overwhelmed will be hit hard. Those Countries that play it too safe may be simply kicking the risk down the road, not eliminating it. Worse they could be adding other collateral damage in the delay. Of course we will only truly know in hindsight.
  2. No one is suggesting we follow Trump. This is the question I asked. How would you handle this if you knew it would be years? You pointed out one example. The Health Care system is a choke point and a key problem. If Health Care is over run the death toll jumps rapidly. One of the WHO’s recommendations is increased resources for health care. Planning is based on a historical percentage of the population that needs hospitalization at any given time. That historical average is not going to serve us adequately during a Pandemic. If you create more room at the choke point, the death toll remains low even if more people get sick. Of course this takes time and money. But less money than a shutdown. Heard anyone take the WHO’s suggestion to heart that we need to plan for a hospitalization rate higher than current? That we shouldn’t probably have used a historical average in the first place? This problem is particularly acute in the states because of their system.
  3. If we had a crystal ball and it said we will be dealing with Covid for years. Then what? I don't think we have our heads wrapped around how long this will be. That a vaccine for a cold virus has never been successful. Even if we are successful the vaccines effectivity will likely be limited as Corona viruses mutate faster than the flu. Much faster. So how would we handle this if we knew it would be years? That is what we should be doing. Who warns of no silver Bullet. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-53643455
  4. I would agree. I have come to the conclusion the Canadian government is determined to stick with 14 day quarantine, dispute viable alternatives, and will likely do so through to summer 2021. 14 day quarantine + no aid = failures I have heard this elsewhere but have taken it with a grain of salt. But beginning to wonder. Does anyone think Trudeau might like the idea that Covid is hammering the airline industry from a carbon footprint perspective?
  5. The point of the letter at the top of the page. 1)Keeping numbers at zero is not a realistic attainable goal. This will take a few years to get through. 2)The measures needed to attempt zero creates collateral damage. Forget economic for a moment. The damage is vast. This is the balance the letter talks about and the one we need our leaders working toward. There are some great examples of how to deal with this in a balanced way. Hint. They are not at the Federal level. Go west to find them. Two ladies with last names starting with H. Remember the coined phrase was “Flatten the curve”. This was so our health care system was not over run. The phrase was never “stamp out Covid.” Although everyone would love that idea it is not a realistic objective and pursuing it will most likely cause more harm than good.
  6. I believe only Atlantic Canada has interprovincial quarantine. So I don't think someone traveling from Nova Scotia to Toronto has to quarantine. I'm out west so not completely Intune with the rules out East. I can tell you that anyone travelling from Nova Scotia to MB, SK, AB, BC does not require quarantine. However the other way around they must. https://novascotia.ca/coronavirus/alerts-notices/ A quick look at Ontario and the only quarantine seems to be out of Country. To give you an idea of the contrast across the country. We have seen on the news road blocks set up by police in Eastern Canada turning people away who reside in a different province. In BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan interprovincial travel was discouraged but never stopped. Now it's open. Quarantine from province to province was never in place. Never once was any province turning people of another province away at the provincial boarder.
  7. I think the letter needs to be taken from the perspective that some of our provinces have gone isolationist. Some of our provinces have been very good at approaching this in a balanced way. Two days ago I arrived in Halifax. People from Nova Scotia health reminding everyone that they must quarantine for 14 days as you exit security. That is everyone even though other provinces do not require interprovincial quarantine and rapid testing is available as an alternative. I also noticed an article in the paper talking about not reopening school this September. I was surprised how much is still shutdown considering how little spread Nova Scotia has had. Contrast that to BC which already opened schools and Alberta that now has a public awareness campaign from paediatricians reminding people how important social interaction for children is. In Alberta and BC young people are playing baseball. In Nova Scotia this is what is on one of their baseball sights. Baseball Nova Scotia July 3rd Update Friday, July 3, 2020 Given there were no further easing of restrictions this week, Baseball Nova Scotia has decided to cancel the 2020 Bluenose League and Provincial Championships. We are disappointed that we’ve had to make such a hard
  8. Some very well educated Canadian medical professionals don’t believe we are approaching the Covid issue in a balanced way. https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6982585-Balanced-Response-Letter-and-Statement-July6-Final.html#document/p12
  9. Don, The thread topic is directly related to lack of reciprocity regarding quarantine. If you start reading into the UK travel restrictions you will see reciprocity mentioned multiple times. Canada is not alone in being left out. Even one of the safest places on earth from Covid is not included. New Zealand which has stated they are closed until next year. There are other examples. The message is clear. This thread topic is a result of our unwillingness to open up, even if there are safe viable options. This by the way is why British Airways and Ryan Air launched their lawsuit against the British government. Looks like it worked. Maybe Canadian airlines should try the same. We are intelligent, resilient and imaginative people. We can manage this is a safe way. Manage it in a way that provides safety and limits collateral damage. Or we can let fear, rather than rational thinking, rule and hide under a rock. There is no rational reason for a 14 day quarantine when we can safely reduce that time through testing. My wife’s latest results returned in just over 24 hours. The only explanation I can come up with as to why 14 days remains, is fear.
  10. Don, I also have two children who work on the front line of the health care system. Edit to say. As I am sure you are as well. Very proud of them. In fact proud of all our health care and front line workers. It’s actually interesting to listen to the two of them debate this. Here in Alberta we can do a drive through Covid test any time we want The waiting time is one day and results within two days after that. According to my daughter positive tests are acted on usually within a day as they get priority. Turn around time is rapid. So the question has come up, why the 14 day quarantine? What is wrong with straight home until cleared. Yes it can take 4 days for someone who is Covid positive to actually test positive. So a test on arrival and then a second test at four days. IATA is actually proposing a test prior to boarding the aircraft and then after arrival. The point is that 14 days of quarantine or 28 days for a round trip is not required if testing is used. The month worth of quarantine is only necessary in the absence of testing. The only reason to impose a 14 day quarantine is to stifle travel. It is not to make people safer. You and I both know what happens when SOP’s get instituted that don’t make sense. They get ignored. Then ignoring the rules gets normalized. Normalization of deviation. There will be people that won’t follow these rules. If we are lucky they will use their brain and test before breaking quarantine. How many know they should still wait four days? Many will just blow quarantine off all together. If a Covid test 3-4 days after arrival is a safe way to identify people who are ill, why impose a 14 day quarantine? Why prevent people from entering the country if they arrive from a non hotspot and they also wait for a test to clear them? The point I was making was simple. Lockdown also has a death toll. Should we not be looking to open as much as safety possible? Currently that is not the direction we are taking. Currently we are choosing one death toll over the other.
  11. Ha. I thought I put in Frankfurt. Nice touché
  12. British Airways ends row with Government quarantine rules. Our lack of reciprocity leaves us out. So far we can go to the EU and not quarantine. That will likely end soon without reciprocity. the challenge was withdrawn after a list of 73 countries and territories where English tourists can visit without self-isolating on their return was published by the Department for Transport (DfT). https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-airlines-end-row-with-government-over-quarantine-rules-143436915.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cDovL3d3dy5hY3BpbG90LmNhLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAALhdTvrppednFjbe76Pzlon19uTwOtvyn64Qk039tbnz3iX8WGKcZIx_XzG8khfubhB_RSBhllsjeRP7JhiZKs3AwfYNG6oPiv0WSoCjEunDNBI_OgVfQmb47r3AGOrGhZhlMVWZyS6aSLOYNL1qGzhsiwjdnm7RhMH92jCgbMHM
  13. I point this out only as an example of unintended consequences. It is way over simplistic to say, shutdown and stay at home and it will save lives. Everything is a trade off. https://nationalpost.com/health/covid-19-canada-unemployment-depression-suicide You can look at deaths in third world countries and the world economy as well. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-children-un/u-n-warns-economic-downturn-could-kill-hundreds-of-thousands-of-children-in-2020-idUSKBN21Y2X7 Increased Cancer deaths https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/932858 Closer to home. Calgary man dies from lockdown. https://calgaryherald.com/opinion/columnists/corbella-alberta-man-died-from-the-lockdown-not-covid-19 Im not suggesting I know the correct balance. I’m glad I don’t make these decisions. Just saying that this shutdown has its own death toll. Shutting down too long creates an unnecessary death toll. Opening too soon creates an unnecessary death toll. It is why my personal opinion is if it can be done reasonably safely? Open it up. Over caution will kill too. The problem is politicians are not striking a balance. Not even attempting to. All they are concerned about is optics.
  14. Because not everyone thinks the same way. Prudent risk management to one person is an over reaction to another. As you know when it comes to safety we always accept some risk. The safest thing to do is not get in a car at all. We do anyway. The safest airline is the one that never flies. If Transat can be believed they have good loads this summer on routes to France. AC domestic loads are increasing. People are moving by air. If the EU has Covid under control then what is the difference between YVR-YYC and YVR-LHR?
  15. Has anyone seen anything on the EU exemption for Canada? It required reciprocity. I’m thinking that will be next to fall through. I doubt JT will reciprocate. Silence from him usually means he isn’t going to do anything.