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  1. The tech advancements in horizontal fracking has drastically reduced input costs in recent years. I'm not sure $60/B is even an accurate number anymore. If you can't get it to market the value is zero. If the value is zero no one will invest. If the choke point that the environmentalist want to continue, does Infact continue, the industry will get choked to death. Of course this is exactly what some want. A minority government will likely mean the choke hold stays in place
  2. I hear you. But a minority government, any minority government, will likely lead to the Trans Mountain Pipeline construction ending for the entirety of the mandate. Possibly kill it forever. How many Billions did we spend on a paper weight if the NDP or Greens prop up a minority? The anger from the West is already on simmer. Families can only hang on so long. Alberta insolvencies increasing. https://globalnews.ca/news/5377831/alberta-debt-insolvency-taboo/
  3. Odd, I have heard a few WJ friends make the same kind of comment. My question to you is the same as it was for them. Transat doesn’t fly to LHR. Why would the Competition Bureau look at a route where no consolidation is taking place as a result of the merger? With that logic why not YVR - HKG? Since no consolidation is taking place in LHR due to the merger, are you asserting a competition problem on the route currently?
  4. AC says they won’t merge TS into AC or Rouge. They also say they will abide by the ACPA agreement. The solution maybe to keep TS, expand it to the ACPA collective agreement and dissolve Rouge. The TS brand is much more valuable than Rouge and the existence of both is redundant.
  5. Then what do you get? Who knows. A $14 offer from AC? But maybe not. It’s a gamble. If AC thinks the vote is going south they may up the offer at the last minute. If the vote does go south how much does that impact the AC share price?
  6. Mach wants to vote with shares they have not purchased. Nor will they purchase if the sale to AC is not blocked.
  7. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-transat-slams-group-mach-bid-as-abusive-says-it-will-challenge/ Transat slams Group Mach bid as ‘abusive’, says it will challenge offer with Quebec securities regulator transact AT Inc. is urging investors not to tender their shares to Group Mach’s latest bid, calling the attempt to block the Air Canada takeover “coercive” and “misleading.” Transat, a Montreal-based airline and tour operator has agreed to a purchase by Air Canada worth $520-million, or $13 a share, despite complaints from some large shareholders the price is too low. Two-thirds of Transat shareholders must approve the deal in a vote on August 23. Mach, a real estate developer in Montreal, has made several attempts to purchase Transat, the most recent one being a $14 offer last week for 19.5-per-cent of Transat shares. The move is seen as an attempt to align with unhappy Transat shareholders and block the Air Canada purchase. Transat said in a statement on Tuesday morning it is filing a challenge to the Mach offer with the Tribunal administratif des marchés financiers, part of the Quebec securities regulator that adjudicates complaints about alleged securities rules violations. “Transat is taking vigorous and immediate actions against Mach’s abusive scheme to protect its shareholders,” said Transat, reiterating the Air Canada offer is in shareholders’ best interests. “The board, the special committee and their advisers categorically reject Mach’s scheme as highly abusive, coercive, misleading and conditional, and prejudicial to the interests of shareholders and putting them at significant risk by unfairly disregarding their interests and subverting applicable securities rules designed to protect shareholders and treat them fairly and equally and to protect the integrity of capital markets,” Transat said. “Notably, the board warns that Mach has made no commitment to acquire and pay for any of the shares deposited under its scheme. Transat said the Air Canada offer is a good deal for shareholders and will offer job security to its 5,000 employees. Mach previous attempts to buy Transat include talks in recent months and an offer for the entire company that was withdrawn. Mach has sought financial help from the province for the deal, and says it will bring in a Spanish partner. The 19-5-per-cent offer of last week contained no such conditions. Transat is Canada’s third-biggest airline, with a fleet of about 40 planes and a travel division. Air Canada is the country’s largest carrier. Mach, Transat said, would be able to exercise the voting rights of the shares tendered to it before paying for them, a “bait-and-switch” tactic. Alfred Buggé, Mach’s vice-president of mergers and acquisitions, dismissed the Transat accusations as “posturing.” He said by phone Mach has $100-million ready to pay for the 19.5-per-cent of Transat if the Air Canada takeover is voted down. At the same time, shareholders have the right to transfer their voting privileges to Mach while retaining ownership of the shares, he said. Mr. Buggé said he has spoken to “many, many” institutional shareholders who are allied with Mach’s efforts to block Air Canada and operate the company in what he described as the “best interests of shareholders.” A proxy fight to overthrow the Transat board is not part of the plan, he said, although, “we don’t want to work with this board of directors.” “Our first objective is we want this deal to be killed. Once that’s taken care of we’ve got $100-million on the table that we’ve risked. And our interests are perfectly aligned with the shareholders, unlike Air Canada and the board of directors,” he said.
  8. https://www.lapresse.ca/affaires/entreprises/201906/25/01-5231529-un-financier-evoque-une-offre-de-17-a-20-laction-pour-transat.php Looks like a third interested party with partners trying to stay under the radar. Any who the partners might be?
  9. What about intervening at the competition bureau? Pushing for a piece of Transat to be divested.
  10. Let me put it another way. If Onex's plan is WJ and Transat? Is the current offer from AC enough to deter them?
  11. Agreed. But is that even relevant to the shareholder who gets completely bought out?
  12. All it would take is a WJ/Onex offer of $14/share plus 15 million to walk away from the AC offer. Does anyone remember how many times the back and forth bidding went last time? It was a lot if I remember. If it is Onex that wants Transat and WestJet together? I don't know this as fact of course. But if it is the case this is likely not over.
  13. When Onex tried their takeover of AC the plan was to pull AC out of the Star Alliance and join oneworld. Onex, who often uses partners, was in partnership with AA. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if it was Delta’s competition behind Onex this time. Last time, when he tried the takeover of Canadian/AC he announced the switch from one alliance to another up front. This caused a problem for him because Star Alliance partners moved in and drove the share purchase price way up in a bidding war to keep AC. He won’t make that mistake again.
  14. True. I was thinking about an article that said the WJ BOD already had opinions from various firms. That takes time. Time means the WJ offer to Transat happened with understanding of the Onex offer to WJ.
  15. It has been reported WJ was the one that made the initial unsolicited offer to buy Transat. I'm thinking that offer was actually onex's plan via WJ. Onex clearly made their offer to WJ awhile ago. The amount of due diligence required for the BOD to recommend acceptance indicates this. One would think the two offers must be related if they are being pursued in tandem. Onex usually partners with some one. I think another shoe is going to drop. WJ, Transat,..... A oneworld or Skyteam member?