Turbofan

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Turbofan last won the day on January 31

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  1. Good video. So are we all going to remember this new knowledge when it comes time for the flu shot next year? Efficacy of 60% ish usually. Kip the spacing between shots is a result of a fast paced trial. Antibodies peak at the 2 week mark and they juice the people again. Although expedient for trial purposes, we know from previous vaccines that maximum efficacy is normally longer between shots. Shingles, for example, is 2-6 months between doses for maximum efficacy. Currently researchers are going back and trying to find the efficacy sweet spot for second dose timing. None of t
  2. My point is that what happened with demand domestically in the US was like a switch. The only way you capitalize on that is by staying in the starter gate. Perhaps WJ has decided that staying in the starter gate is too expensive. Or the net payoff not worth it. This industry is just so competitive I have trouble buying that though.
  3. I just can’t see further reductions at this point. If you look at the US domestic market there is a lot of pent up demand for travel. Canadians are sitting on Billions. Not being in a position to capitalize on the release of that demand? I realize WJ is a single fleet type and can spool up faster than say AC. But how fast realistically? Why would you layoff people April 1, that you will probably need June 1. Recency issues alone would be problematic.
  4. I agree. A bunch of years ago landing in YYC at night there was this weird optical illusion that the runway was curved upward about half way down. Significantly so. Like a ski jump. When I reported it to ATC the aircraft behind asked what we were smoking. After landing ATC asked if they saw the same illusion. The response. Yup we are clearly smoking the same stuff. The illusion must have been heat I think. But I don’t have a quality explanation.
  5. Watch Darren Fishers eyes. Is it just me, or does it bother anyone else that not only does he not answer the question, he’s reading his response.
  6. https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEB8yReGqhHqKyCYXyzvHMBEqFAgEKgwIACoFCAowhgIwkDgwob0I?hl=en-CA&gl=CA&ceid=CA%3Aen Vijay Kolinjivadi Vijay Kolinjivadi is a post-doctoral fellow at the Institute of Development Policy at the University of Antwerp. The pandemic presents us with a great opportunity to do away with the destructive mass tourism industry. Ultimately, addressing the damage of global mass tourism requires taking stricter climate action against the aviation industry and encouraging more domestic and regional leisure travel. Introducing more fuel-effic
  7. In my mind the issue is one of credibility. If the projection is out by weeks or even a month or two I would call the modelling credible. Half way correct would also make it credible. No one expects exact. We do however expect reasonable. Every other country is using similar simulation software. It’s the input data that each country has a choice in. Health Canada’s choices on inputs are clearly not inline with other jurisdictions. It was therefor imperative that they explain the input choices they made, and why. No critical thinker will just blindly accept a wildly di
  8. I guess we will see then. The seven day average on Feb 18 was 2906 cases/day. Health Canada predicts over 20,000 cases/day within 6 weeks EVEN IF current restrictions stay in place. It will take two weeks to reach 20,000 cases/day if we reduce lockdown measures. The rest of the world is generally predicting a slow easing of cases/day. We will come back in a month and see.
  9. With all the modelling issues we have already had, the projections themselves become an issue of public trust if heath Canada continues to vastly miss the target. Eventually people will stop listening. Provinces won’t buy in. In fact I think that is already happening. When an infectious disease doctor asks, “ Why is the modelling so different from the modelling everywhere else?“,and Health Canada doesn’t have an answer, there is a problem. If you put something out so different than everyone else, you should know to expect you will be asked why. If you can’t answer that s
  10. I get the concern. But Canada is an outlier in its projections by a long shot, and we are not the only country with variants. Nor are we alone in our slow vaccination rollout. The UK wasn’t looking for what they didn’t know existed. Other countries have the luxury of monitoring the situation. This is what concerns me. The professionals scratching their heads. The graph left infectious diseases experts scratching their heads. “What are the underlying assumptions?” Dr. Martha Fulford, an assistant professor at McMaster University and infectious diseases physician at Hamilton Healt
  11. I don’t know what to make of this news today. Variant spread could lead to renewed spike in COVID cases and third wave, Tam warns https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/variant-spread-could-lead-to-renewed-spike-in-covid-cases-and-third-wave-tam-warns Health officials can't explain Dr. Tam's "rocket ship" modelling https://www.calgarysun.com/news/health-officials-cant-explain-dr-tams-rocket-ship-modelling/wcm/c01c309d-4fe4-48ca-93bd-d32e614d62c1 Notice the modelling Dr Tam put forward shows that even if current restrictions remain in place, Covid is set to skyrocke
  12. I was referring to an autoimmune response to Covid that some people are experiencing. The immune system misidentifies the problem and attacks the person. Doctors have had to treat these patients differently by slowing down their immune response. One of the more critical autoimmune reactions has been lung blood clotting and permanent lung damage. In March, when JO’s young friend got Covid, Doctors weren’t looking for it. Now they are. https://theconversation.com/an-autoimmune-like-antibody-response-is-linked-with-severe-covid-19-146255 In the earliest days of the pandemic, man
  13. Studies on vitamin D show it promotes immune response. Studies have also shown people in northern counties are low, almost universally. The problem, as pointed out by JO above, is Covid is novel. Our immune systems haven’t seen it before. So just because you have a healthy immune system doesn’t mean it will protect you. It might even work against you. Sorry to hear about your friends J.O. The young dentist sounds like he had an improper immune response that ended with damaged lungs.
  14. Worldwide 7 day average for new cases is now about 60% of peak. My interpretation. It’s actually 50% but appears to be caused by a one day statistical anomaly.
  15. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/2/16/india-sees-dramatic-fall-in-virus-cases-experts-stumped Experts puzzled by dramatic fall in coronavirus cases in India A nationwide screening for antibodies by Indian health agencies estimated that about 270 million, or one in five Indians, had been infected by the virus before vaccinations started – far below the rate of 70 percent or higher that experts say might be the threshold for the coronavirus, though even that is not certain.