AC Investor day: Bullish outlook continues

[DEFCON]

While posters like Seeker et al can easily appreciate the items of concern you've expressed Vsplat, and no offense to the non-pilot group, but the issues described are beyond their scope of understanding.

 

 

  

[moeman]

48 minutes ago, DEFCON said:

While posters like Seeker et al can easily appreciate the items of concern you've expressed Vsplat, and no offense to the non-pilot group, but the issues described are beyond their scope of understanding.

 

 

  

Me no unnerstand ;-)

[Zan Vetter]

Ok, let's leave the technology stuff for elsewhere. 

We were originally talking about the stock price though, and how kind of perverted it is for regular employees to get excited about it, as if there is some kind of celestial validation involved in having a high (-er than last year's) share price. Sure, yes, AC has returned 6000% since the lows of 2009 but this is a bit like equating the MVP award with the Most Improved Player award. Most Improved usually means you were starting with a small base. AC equity was basically worthless 8 years ago, is that an appropriate base to judge an 80-yr old company from? Is AC really 6000% better than 8 years ago? Just...think about it. Is it really 15% better than last week? It's ridiculous to measure a company by the share price. When 30% gets chopped off in a month span like what will likely happen when this market rolls over, where will this comparison be then? Nowhere to be found, is where.

AC went public after CCAA in 2004 priced at $21. Only in the last month have investors who (I'm sure there are zero) have held since then been made whole again. At friday's price of $27.51, the annual rate of return on that money is now 2%. 

All that brings me back to how employees, and unions really, need to focus on individual pay and working conditions and not on how the market is "validating" management's plan, which has been in part to wring concessions-disguised-as-gains from the unions. Getting excited about the size of the payroll that expanded because the airline got bigger is just so stupid and pointless to the average guy. Or the share price, or profitability, which we participate in on a limited basis. What do I care if we have 96 widebodies, if 25 of them pay like a narrowbody? Does it make a difference to me if there are 3000 pilots instead of 4000? Do I care if the payroll is now $450M instead of $400M, if the jobs I had hoped to move into in the future now pay 30% less than they used to (and now there are more of them!). 

I recognize that it is all a lot more complicated than this. My point is though, is that we aren't participating in a meaningful way in this rally, and therefore shouldn't care about it. We got smoked in this round of negots. 

 

 

[Seeker]

11 minutes ago, Zan Vetter said:

All that brings me back to how employees, and unions really, need to focus on individual pay and working conditions and not on how the market is "validating" management's plan, which has been in part to wring concessions-disguised-as-gains from the unions. I recognize that it is all a lot more complicated than this.

My point is though, is that we aren't participating in a meaningful way in this rally, and therefore shouldn't care about it. We got smoked in this round of negots. 

 

 

I agree with most of what you're saying and also feel we got manipulated in this round but as far as your comment about focusing on pay and working conditions do you remember that time way back in 2000 when the United piloted negotiated a huuuuge pay increase (something like 48% with 28% upfront)?  Two years later the company was bankrupt (in fairness due partly to 9/11).  I do agree that we should focus on pay vs share price but there is some value to having employment stability .

[FA@AC]

25 minutes ago, Zan Vetter said:

My point is though, is that we aren't participating in a meaningful way in this rally, and therefore shouldn't care about it.

Participating meaningfully in the share price rally?  Perhaps not so much.  On the other hand, for those of us who have been around for a long time and who have seen several downturns, the job security we have in the current environment is nothing to snuff at.

[Zan Vetter]

Yeah seeker that's the "we don't want to kill the golden goose, we just want to choke it by the neck until it gives up every last egg" era, right?

https://books.google.ca/books?id=pd6DCgAAQBAJ&pg=PT152&dq=choke+the+golden+goose+united+airlines&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiok9O74bvWAhVF5oMKHYGfDz8Q6AEIKDAA#v=onepage&q=choke the golden goose united airlines&f=false

 

I think we're nearing the opposite end of that spectrum here, and with the pilots anyway, moving towards a somewhat disillusioned (in their union, in their management) state, which shouldn't be that way in a period of such a bullish outlook. The context being, ironically, that many other pilot groups being awarded double-digit pay increases and we are, uh, matching the flight attendants on their per diem and such.

[DEFCON]

Imo, Zan Vetter Van understands the stock game very well and his advice to union members is sound; make hay while the sun shines.

 

[Dreamliner_AC]

@Vsplat

In response to your question the statement posted represents the perspective of many on Air Canada's team that includes front-line workers, union representatives, supervisors, managers and other Air Canada stakeholders. 

[Dreamliner_AC]

@Zan Vetter

Would you consider sharing your views on what you would do or change to our current plan that could improve, strengthen and advance Air Canada for the collective benefit of all employees, customers and shareholders?

[Vsplat]

1 hour ago, Dreamliner_AC said:

@Vsplat

In response to your question the statement posted represents the perspective of many on Air Canada's team that includes front-line workers, union representatives, supervisors, managers and other Air Canada stakeholders. 

You presume to speak for many others.  If so, perhaps your role precludes your access to unwelcome news.  There are a few in corporate Canada that reward truth spoken unto power with exile.  As a result, there are those who will only speak welcome news when asked in an identified way.

While your posts might jive well with investor statements or union sales, this forum is primarily comprised of people who want to make it home from work.

It's not a normal job, this gig.  The scheduling flexibility translates directly to more fatigue and less schedule predictability on any given day.  That is simply the math of it, and it's not really a matter of personal opinion.  Pilots are not going to fly less or go home more often during IRROPS.  So it is the other direction this agreement takes things.

More fatigue and more schedule disruption are threats.  But perhaps you are don't fly the line so don't realise that loyalty to the brand, but more importantly to those we transport, compels us to speak honestly about the threats we face.  Either we deal with these things up front, at a time of our choosing, or we react to the effects of these things, at an unknown point in the future.

So:  I asked you a simple question, which, quite frankly, you did not answer.  Perhaps you would deign to do so now.

Do you hold or have you recently held (within the past six months, say)  a management, supervisory or union position, elected or otherwise?

Of course, you don't have to answer, but if you provide another 'I speak for everyone' reply, I will assume your purpose in coming here is to serve another agenda.

Vs

 

 

[DEFCON]

"Would you consider sharing your views on what you would do or change to our current plan that could improve, strengthen and advance Air Canada for the collective benefit of all employees, customers and shareholders?"

I think you've missed his point Dreamliner; the idea is to enhance the wawcon and life of pilots especially his, not every other AC stakeholder.

 

[Dreamliner_AC]

@DEFCON perhaps his point was missed, however, this perspective was made from a team approach as opposed to an individual's

[Vsplat]

Dreamliner, certainly there are points being missed.

Your posts increasingly appear to be from someone who either is not a pilot or does not fly the line.  So, at the risk of being painfully obvious, you need to recalibrate your comments about 'team'.

The flight deck doesn't have the luxury of 'taking one for the team' or 'going the extra mile' (no pun intended).  Often, as in, once a pairing, many pilots, and not just Air Canada pilots,  face criticism or un-meetable expectations from other stakeholders because we are trying to follow our SOPs and the CARs, and by so doing protect the level of safety we promise our passengers.  It seems to me that, more and more, others confuse the flight deck perspective, the one we are required to keep by law, with arrogance or self centered behaviour.  It is neither.  It is simple self preservation and obligation to do what our licence and our passengers demand. 

The new agreement, which seemed to draw you into the discussion, may be good for 'the team' but in some of the ways already stated, it is bad for pilots.  Not universally so, but in key areas that affect human performance, there are new flaws.

If you are in a position to speak on behalf of so many, as you say you are, then this is your chance to look into the deal the negotiators have put together through the eyes of those who have to deliver the aircraft and our passengers safely, every single day.  You can stick to investor speak, or you can open your viewport a bit wider and listen to what is being conveyed here.  The choice is yours.

Vs

 

[Seeker]

2 hours ago, Dreamliner_AC said:

@Zan Vetter

Would you consider sharing your views on what you would do or change to our current plan that could improve, strengthen and advance Air Canada for the collective benefit of all employees, customers and shareholders?

I know your question isn't directed at me but what a ridiculous thing to ask;  "how to improve, strengthen and advance Air Canada for the collective benefit of all employees, customers and shareholders?"  Of course there some overlap in the different groups interests but there also a lot that are in direct opposition.  As soon as you use the word "collective" my BS meter pegged at the top.  "Collective" means someone is paying/contributing too much and someone else is receiving too much.

[Zan Vetter]

Whoa Dreamliner_AC, we weren't talking about changing the business plan, we were talking about how much the market likes it, and how little the pilots (or at least that is what I was talking about) got in return for handing over the key that just added $500M to the market cap of the company this week. Clearly, the plan is pretty good. Also just as clearly, the pilots are undercompensated for, how to say this, flexible and accommodating they've been. 40.7% appear to have noticed that we're starting to look like the golden gooses now.

Ryanair is now the biggest airline in Europe...gee those pilots must be really ecstatic hey now Dreamliner_AC?https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/21/ryanair-money-airline-morals