Repo man’s biggest fear: ‘These aeroplanes are gone forever’

[Airband]

Repo man’s biggest fear: ‘These aeroplanes are gone forever’ after Russia shields them from seizure

Lessors have retrieved only a couple dozen of 500 aircraft

Wed Mar 9, 2022 - Bloomberg News
ByJulie Johnsson and Danny Lee

Quote

'Russia’s recent actions raise questions about another aviation staple: records documenting every detail of a jet’s upkeep, from maintenance visits to the remaining life for key parts. Without such paperwork, a jet’s value rapidly diminishes'

Aircraft owners are coming to grips with the loss of hundreds of Airbus SE and Boeing Co. jets that Russian carriers have effectively shielded from seizure behind a new incarnation of the Iron Curtain.

With the window just about closed, foreign leasing firms have succeeded in repossessing only about two dozen of the more than 500 aircraft rented to Russian carriers, according to Dean Gerber, general counsel for Valkyrie BTO Aviation. The planes in limbo have a market value of about $10.3 billion, aviation analytics firm Ishka estimates.

Technically, lessors have until March 28 to retrieve the planes under European Union sanctions. But state-owned Aeroflot PJSC and other Russian airlines have already gathered the vast bulk of them back inside the country, out of reach of their owners. The government aided the effort by instructing carriers to stop flying internationally and return the jets to Russia by Tuesday.  

“The number one fear right now is that these aeroplanes are gone forever,” said Steve Giordano, managing director of Dover, Delaware-based Nomadic Aviation Group, one of a handful of firms specializing in aircraft repossessions.

Desperate Hunt
The shock from the rapid turn of events rippled through the roughly 2,000 attendees gathered at the annual ISTAT Americas convention in San Diego, where Valkyrie BTO’s Gerber spoke on Monday. There, elation over the fading omicron wave of coronavirus -- the bane of aviation for the past two years -- gave way to talk of spiking oil prices and doomsday scenarios for the stranded jets.

“The more we talk with insurers and other people at this conference, the clearer it’s becoming that these aircraft aren’t coming back,” said George Dimitroff, head of valuations for consultant Ascend by Cirium.

The Russian government’s response to the economic restrictions has stunned the leasing industry by flouting decades-old international treaties that had helped spur a boom in global travel. Conventions guaranteeing lessors the right to cross borders to claim aircraft from defaulting customers helped attract a gush of money as other investors came to view aircraft as a safe investment. 

In telexes over the weekend, Russian authorities urged the nation’s airlines to restrict flying to domestic routes and friendly Belarus to prevent their jets being grabbed by repossession crews lying in wait, Emily Wicker, a partner with law firm Clifford Chance, told the lessor conference. The Russian government also advised operators to re-register foreign-owned aircraft in Russia from their traditional base of Bermuda, another move that could thwart efforts to revoke an aircraft’s certification -- or track its maintenance and upkeep.

Next Steps
Lessors are now weighing their next steps. While it’s possible the war ends quickly, or that Russian airlines cooperate with repossession efforts, they’ve hired lawyers to parse insurance and re-insurance policies as they gird for long, costly fights and try to recover their losses. They’re also poring over complex financings to avoid running afoul of trade restrictions.

Those able to react quickly have been able to salvage a handful of planes whose insurance and airworthiness certifications are being revoked one by one. 

Aircastle Ltd., a Stamford, Connecticut-based lessor, used the confusion over the insurance status of one of its jets to take possession as it made a stopover in Mexico City. 

“These are really small victories,” Christopher Beers, Aircastle’s chief legal officer, said in San Diego. “The doors are closing.”  

Slipping Away
In another case reported by The Air Current, an Airbus A321neo on its way to Cairo had its airworthiness certificate revoked by authorities in Bermuda mid-flight after it lost its insurance. Its owner, lessor SMBC Aviation Capital, attempted to repossess the plane after it landed but it was able to return to Moscow, the outlet said.

Dublin-based AerCap Holdings NV has the most planes leased to Russia at 152, with a market value approaching $2.5 billion, according to aviation consultancy IBA. Carlyle Aviation is among others with exposure, IBA said.

Aercap shares have lost about a quarter of their value since the EU banned companies from supplying Russia with aircraft, parts or services in response to the invasion of Ukraine. Kroll Bond Ratings said it may downgrade nine aviation asset-backed securitizations exposed to planes in Russia and Ukraine.

The crisis has shone a spotlight on the small staff running Bermuda’s Civil Aviation Authority. The tiny island has oversight of almost 800 aircraft -- some 777 of those Russian, according to the agency’s 2020 annual report. 

Russia’s recent actions raise questions about another aviation staple: records documenting every detail of a jet’s upkeep, from maintenance visits to the remaining life for key parts. Without such paperwork, a jet’s value rapidly diminishes, said Chris Sponenberg, a vice president at Wilmington Trust.

“You can’t prove anything was done to it, can’t prove it’s safe,” he said. “Civil aircraft authorities may not register it as airworthy.”

That’s just one of the side-effects of the sanctions, whose full impact could take years to play out. 

[J.O.]

I wish them luck, it won't be easy running a bunch of A320s and NGs without parts support.

[Super 80]

They will just do what Kingfisher did and cannibalize some of the leased aircraft to keep others going.

[Rich Pulman]

7 hours ago, Super 80 said:

They will just do what Kingfisher did and cannibalize some of the leased aircraft to keep others going.

To what end? There’s really no marketplace left for all those jets, and probably won’t be for a long time.

[Super 80]

Aviation parts are embargoed and there are going to be a lot of essentially stolen planes sitting around Russian airports that can be pilfered from.

How long will it take the Russian aircraft industry to produce any significant number of their own sanction-proof variants?

Edited March 10, 2022 by Super 80

[Junior]

If Iran can still fly F14’s, Russia will be able to do something.

Use agents to get parts in the west for smuggling, relaxed domestic regulations in a country that already has an acceptance of a high accident rate, etc. 

Perhaps something can be done on the software front but I suspect the aircraft will continue to operate in ever decreasing numbers of serviceable aircraft and ever increasing amounts of spare aircraft requiring very expensive maintenance checks to ever become airworthy again in the west.

Insurance companies might claim war when it comes to coverage leading to court fights.

[Jaydee]

On 3/9/2022 at 11:20 AM, J.O. said:

I wish them luck, it won't be easy running a bunch of A320s and NGs without parts support.

China has reportedly refused to supply aircraft parts to Russian airlines, as said by Russian aviation authority Rosaviatsia’s spokesperson on Thursday.

He also said that Russia would look to source those parts from other countries, including Turkey and India after China refused to supply them. All three major manufacturers, Airbus, Boeing and Embraer have already halted supply of parts to Russian airlines.

Russian companies are also looking to register their planes, which had been registered abroad including in Ireland, after the western sanctions on Russia. Some of the aircraft are expected to return to leasing firms.
 

 

https://www.airlive.net/alert-china-refuses-to-supply-aircraft-parts-to-russia/?fbclid=IwAR1KBwaLYrQJqqx5BkCy6jKWIP1NuVH2L4Jo0FZvITYBdCmxxQ3cam14WIs

[Super 80]

8 hours ago, Junior said:

If Iran can still fly F14’s, Russia will be able to do something.

Have Russian sympathizers hold Americans hostage and exchange them for spares?