dagger Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 https://www.cp24.com/news/flight-to-san-josé-returns-to-pearson-due-to-severe-turbulence-multiple-injuries-reported-1.3805892 Multiple injuries have been reported after a plane en route to San José, Costa Rica hit severe turbulence and had to return to Toronto’s Pearson International Airport. The incident happened onboard an Air Canada Rouge flight at around 8 p.m. on Thursday. Peel Paramedics initially told CP24 three flight attendants suffered minor injuries in the incident and were all transported to hospital to be assessed. About an hour after the landing, Peel Paramedics said only two people had to be taken to hospital. In a statement, Air Canada confirmed to CP24 that the flight after to make the return after “encountering turbulence.” “As a precautionary measure airport emergency services met the aircraft upon arrival,” the statement said. Air Canada said passengers onboard the flight are scheduled to redepart for their destination on a different aircraft but did not specify when this will take place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DEFCON Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 With all the technology available on the flightdeck today I don't know why aural & or visual alarms aren't incorporated to warn of rapid changes in the OAT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blues deville Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Perhaps another aircraft’s wake turbulence? Lots of east-west JFK traffic as you head south of YYZ. Otherwise if it was weather related, I would think there should have been some suggestion of enroute turbulence in their pre-flight briefing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DEFCON Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Of course pretty much anything is possible at this moment, but even without the benefit of the relevant charts, considering the location, time of year, altitude and direction of travel, I think this event sounds like a classic encounter with CAT associated with a polar jet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vsplat Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 What little I understand of these models and discussions with those who build them suggest that there is still art mixed with science. No matter how big and powerful the computers behind the science are (and met forecasting requires some pretty leading edge stuff), there is the problem that everything is based on extrapolation from samples. Even if you get it 99.9% correct, which would be statistically beyond reason, 0.1% of the atmosphere is a lot of air. And that air is being subject to constant change with every aircraft that transits, every heat source or smokes stack that has input to it. Not to mention the byproducts of pollutants that change the nature of the fluid itself. If I were a betting person, I would say we will continue to see this kind of event, perhaps even more of them, as a changing climate challenges existing forecasting and modelling capabilities. Short of having everyone belted all the time, the next best thing just might be to have everyone belted when the sign says to do so. And this last change is not going to happen until one passenger successfully sues another (unbelted) one for negligence after a turbulence injury event. As always, just my opinion.... Vs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blues deville Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 I’m still amazed though at how accurate forecast upper winds and other weather conditions can be on a computer generated operational flight plan. There are many times during waypoint fuel checks where wind direction, speed and outside air temp are exactly what’s printed on the page. Also, areas of turbulence although keeping in mind possibly moving from where it was forecast to be located. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 3 hours ago, Vsplat said: What little I understand of these models and discussions with those who build them suggest that there is still art mixed with science. No matter how big and powerful the computers behind the science are (and met forecasting requires some pretty leading edge stuff), there is the problem that everything is based on extrapolation from samples. Even if you get it 99.9% correct, which would be statistically beyond reason, 0.1% of the atmosphere is a lot of air. And that air is being subject to constant change with every aircraft that transits, every heat source or smokes stack that has input to it. Not to mention the byproducts of pollutants that change the nature of the fluid itself. If I were a betting person, I would say we will continue to see this kind of event, perhaps even more of them, as a changing climate challenges existing forecasting and modelling capabilities. Short of having everyone belted all the time, the next best thing just might be to have everyone belted when the sign says to do so. And this last change is not going to happen until one passenger successfully sues another (unbelted) one for negligence after a turbulence injury event. As always, just my opinion.... Vs Vs: I would not blame climate change but rather the need for the FAs to secure everything when the cockpit alerts them to expected turbulence. The FAs daily put their life and limbs in peril during turbulence to protect the passengers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.O. Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 hour ago, Malcolm said: Vs: I would not blame climate change but rather the need for the FAs to secure everything when the cockpit alerts them to expected turbulence. The problem in situations like this one isn't cleaning the cabin, it's the sudden and unexpected nature of the turbulence. There's no time to even take a seat, never mind clear the cabin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 J.O. quite right but I have also witnessed FAs bouncing around attempting to secure that heavy cart and ensure the passengers are buckled up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vsplat Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 I'd certainly agree with you on the winds and temps and, in general, forecast of turbulence associated with conditions the model can see. The black swan events, well, I just don't think they are visible to the current models and may never be. There has been some discussion of climate change increasing the risk of severe turbulence encounters for some time, whether or not one believes the authors is a debate not limited to this forum. That said, I think we would all agree that climate is never static, so even without the global warming debate, there will be a lag between the current state of the planet and models developed regarding it. Here's one reference, no claim to know if it is valid. http://www.reading.ac.uk/news-and-events/releases/PR718348.aspx Vs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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