Electric vehicles

Jaydee · January 17

Malcolm · January 17

What Happened With The 'Stranded Teslas' EV Charging Panic In Chicago

What Happened With The 'Stranded Teslas' EV Charging Panic In Chicago (insideevs.com)

Tesla Superchargers Out of Order Overblown Chicago© InsideEVs

Teslas are having trouble charging in the extreme cold, but there's a myriad of factors that contribute to the problem. Let us help explain.

Frigid weather and electric cars: it’s known for quite some time now that they’re not the best of friends. Even though this frosty relationship isn’t breaking news, a new furor sparked this week following a FOX 32 Chicago report that showcased several Tesla drivers struggling to charge their EVs at a Tesla Supercharger in Oak Brook, Illinois.

As temperatures in this Chicago suburb plummeted to under zero this week for the first time in ages, the situation seemed to have become dire, with owners having to tow their Teslas out on flatbeds because chargers weren’t working, and their EVs had run out of juice. The TV station didn't mince words: “Public charging stations have turned into car graveyards,” reporters said, while calling depleted EVs “dead robots.” A barrage of similar stories emerged out of this report, with several major publications echoing this voice.

The FOX station mentions that some of the stranded owners were those who had just landed at Chicago O’Hare International Airport, which is just 14 miles north of the Oak Brook Supercharger. Tesla’s official documentation says that its cars use around 1% of its battery per day at idle. But if Sentry Mode—which remotely monitors outside conditions via the car's cameras—is enabled, the car can sap as much as 15% of pack capacity in 24 hours. That means someone who leaves Sentry Mode enabled while parked at the airport may return with a significantly reduced battery capacity.

Fortunately, there are several Supercharging stations close to O’Hare. There’s just one problem: at least three of these stations, including the two closest stations (Rosemont and Oak Brook) were reportedly non-functional. In fact, across 13 stations in the region (which, to be clear, is just a handful of the total number of charging locations near Chicago), nearly 50 stalls were said to be out of order.

Our friends over at The Autopian also found reviews on plugshare about Supercharging problems at many of these locations, some of which outlined fights breaking out between owners looking to charge.

Chemistry And User Error Challenges

Battery chemistry is an issue here too. Tesla most commonly uses two different battery chemistries in its cars: Lithium-Iron-Phosphate (LFP) and Nickel-Cobalt-Aluminum (NCA). LFP batteries are found in the standard range-trimmed Model 3, for example. The prismatic cells are cheaper to produce and not as energy-dense as cylindrical NCA cells found in the Long Range and Performance variants of the Model 3 and Y.

While both NCA and LFP batteries are affected adversely by cold weather, LFP batteries perform slightly worse. For starters, the overall range is reduced more so than NCA cells. LFP packs also have a harder time charging in colder weather. This means that if the battery pack is unable to precondition—a process that warms the battery up to an optimal temperature making charging more effective—before arriving at a DC fast charger, the overall charging speed will be significantly slower. Couple that with the reduced range in extreme cold, and you’ve got a recipe for arriving at a Supercharger with a state of charge (SoC) in the single digits.

Tesla Panic Chicago© InsideEVs

One major thorn in the process was probably the lack of knowledge about battery preconditioning. Preconditioning itself requires energy, so leaving your EV at a low SoC can hamper that process. Owners have pointed out that preconditioning can consume between 7.5 to 12 kilowatt-hours, and those figures can vary depending on the set defrost level and set cabin temperature.

And since Teslas typically stop preconditioning at a lower SoC to avoid running out of charge ahead of reaching a fast charger, that battery conditioning isn’t started until the car is plugged in, which means a slower fast charging session, assuming the charger is functional. If it’s not, it could mean a SoC too low to reach another Supercharging station, thus leaving the car stranded.

It’s also possible that those who were routing to the out-of-service Superchargers were doing so out of memory. Perhaps those individuals rely primarily on Supercharging due to not having a charger of their own at home. The cold weather sapping the range and efficiency coupled with the lack of preconditioning may have caused these owners to become stranded at the Oak Brook Supercharger.

Moreover, owners have highlighted how charging performance declines in bone-chilling weather. One owner said on Reddit that even after preconditioning the battery for 20 minutes, with an additional 10-minute “preconditioning for fast charging,” the Supercharger didn’t immediately add real driving miles.

It’s something Kyle Conner of Out Of Spec Reviews also highlighted in a video that showcases how batteries behave during “deep freeze” conditions. Superchargers often don’t add range until batteries are first heated to optimal temperatures, and even then, stalls engineered to deliver 150-250 kilowatts only deliver 20-50 kW.

Also, it’s high time we accept the reality of EV range in winter, and instead focus on solutions to optimize it.

During the 2022-2023 winter, battery health and data startup Recurrent collected data from 10,000 EVs to analyze the impact of cold weather on the range. After analyzing over two dozen models in the U.S., Recurrent found that the average observed range in winter—range after factoring in real-world variables like climate, terrain, and driving patterns—was 70.3% of their normal range.

O'Hare Superchargers© InsideEVs

Chicago is a busy hub, and this would be similar to many gas stations running out of fuel with a bunch of cars running on fumes pulling up to the pump. Of course, such failures can attract a lot of media coverage. But our readers told us that the cold weather in nearby Michigan has been just as harsh to chargers in that area—five Supercharging locations with 56 stalls outside of Detroit, 12 were recently reported as unavailable.

So what can be done to prevent it from happening to you?

How To Avoid This Problem

Electric vehicle supply equipment providers like Tesla need to be on top of maintenance. This could be repairing broken or vandalized chargers, or weather-proofing them for occasions like we are seeing today.

Drivers also need to care for the equipment. One Redditor mentioned that the problem could be owners who fail to properly care for the Superchargers when they’re done using them. It’s not uncommon for owners to just drop the plugs into the snow, which leads to ice buildup inside of the NACS connector.

Sure enough, I forgot to plug my own Tesla Model 3 in last night, and when I went to plug it in (while writing this!) I noticed that my L1 and L2 pins were caked with ice despite being secured in my Tesla wall charger. So I could see how this could potentially be a problem while on the road, and a piece of advice from another Reddit user could help come in handy for frozen chargers, door handles, and charge doors: carry a portable battery-powered heat gun in the trunk when traveling.

Additional reporting by Suvrat Kothari

Jaydee · January 19

Ford cuts F-150 Lightning production as EV demand softens

Reuters) - Ford Motor said on Friday it would reduce production of its F-150 Lightning pickup truck, as demand for electric vehicles (EVs) softens.

The No. 2 U.S. automaker said it would cut production at its Michigan Rouge Electric Vehicle Center to one shift starting April 1. In October, the automaker said it would temporarily cut one of three shifts at the Michigan plant that builds the electric F-150 Lightning pickup truck.

The announcement is the latest sign of slowing demand for EV trucks. General Motors in October postponed the opening of a $4 billion electric truck plant in Michigan for a year.

Ford told suppliers in December that it planned to produce about 1,600 F-150 Lightning EV trucks per week starting in January, roughly half of the 3,200 it previously had planned.

Ford sold 24,165 F-150 Lightning trucks last year in the United States, up 55% over 2022, out of about 750,000 total F-150 U.S. sales. Ford shares fell less than 1% Friday in early trading.

The Dearborn automaker said Friday it would add a third crew and create nearly 900 jobs at its Michigan assembly plant to increase production of gas-powered Bronco SUVs and Ranger pickups.

The production cut comes at a time when Detroit automakers are protesting that the Biden Administration is going too far with proposals to use emissions rules that would result in 67% of all new vehicles in 2032 being EVs. On Friday, the Environmental Protection Agency submitted its proposal to finalize vehicle requirements to the White House for review.

The Republican-led U.S. House in December voted to bar the EPA from moving forward with the planned vehicle emissions regulations, drawing a veto threat from the White House.

Former President Donald Trump, who is seeking to return to the White House, has vowed to reverse the Biden administration's electric vehicle rules, while the White House has touted automakers significant EV and battery production investments along with government funding of new EV charging.

Ford said Friday the move impacts 1,400 workers at the plant. Roughly 700 will transfer to its Michigan Assembly Plant and others will be placed in roles at the Rouge Complex or other facilities in Michigan, or take advantage of a special retirement program.

The automaker sees continued growth in global EV sales in 2024, though expects it to be "less than anticipated."

Ford said a few dozen employees could be impacted at component plants supporting F-150 Lightning production.

Ford lost an estimated $36,000 on each of the 36,000 EVs it delivered to dealers in the third quarter, the company said in October, after announcing earlier it would slow the ramp-up of money-losing EVs, shifting investment to Ford's commercial vehicle unit and citing plans to quadruple sales of gas-electric hybrids over the next five years.

Legacy car manufacturers have sharpened their focus towards hybrid models over the past year as buyers snapped up more of those in place of all-electric models.

Malcolm · January 19

US announces $325 million to repair EV chargers, cut battery costs

FILE PHOTO: An electric car charging station is seen in the parking garage of Union Station in Washington, U.S., September 29, 2022. REUTERS/Sarah Silbiger/File Photo© Thomson Reuters

(Reuters) -The U.S. Departments of Transportation and Energy will invest$325 million across three programs to advance EV technologies, repair chargers and cut battery costs, the White House said in a statement on Friday.

"This new funding for EV chargers will repair and replace existing, non-operational chargers across the country, reduce costs for deploying charging in underserved communities, and cut battery costs", the statement added.

On Thursday, the U.S. awarded nearly $150 million for projects in 20 states to repair or replace nearly 4,500 existing electric vehicle charging ports.

The new funds are part of the $5 billion National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) program funded by a $1 trillion 2021 infrastructure law. Under the program, states need to operate federally-funded charging ports for at least five years, which must work 97% of the time.

(Reporting by Urvi Dugar in Bengaluru; editing by Christina Fincher)

deicer · January 21

https://www.epa.gov/greenvehicles/electric-vehicle-myths

Electric Vehicle Myths

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E-Updates

On this page:

Myth #1: Electric vehicles are worse for the climate than gasoline cars because of power plant emissions.

FACT: Electric vehicles typically have a smaller carbon footprint than gasoline cars, even when accounting for the electricity used for charging.
Electric vehicles (EVs) have no tailpipe emissions. Generating the electricity used to charge EVs, however, may create carbon pollution. The amount varies widely based on how local power is generated, e.g., using coal or natural gas, which emit carbon pollution, versus renewable resources like wind or solar, which do not. Even accounting for these electricity emissions, research shows that an EV is typically responsible for lower levels of greenhouse gases (GHGs) than an average new gasoline car. To the extent that more renewable energy sources like wind and solar are used to generate electricity, the total GHGs associated with EVs could be even lower. (In 2020, renewables became the second-most prevalent U.S. electricity source.¹ ) Learn more about electricity production in your area by visiting EPA’s Power Profiler interactive web page. By simply inputting your zip code, you can find the energy mix in your region.

EPA and Department of Energy's (DOE’s) Beyond Tailpipe Emissions Calculator can help you estimate the greenhouse gas emissions associated with charging and driving an EV or a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) where you live. You can select an EV or PHEV model and type in your zip code to see the CO₂ emissions and how they stack up against those associated with a gasoline car.

Myth #2: Electric vehicles are worse for the climate than gasoline cars because of battery manufacturing.

FACT: The greenhouse gas emissions associated with an electric vehicle over its lifetime are typically lower than those from an average gasoline-powered vehicle, even when accounting for manufacturing.
Some studies have shown that making a typical EV can create more carbon pollution than making a gasoline car. This is because of the additional energy required to manufacture an EV’s battery. Still, over the lifetime of the vehicle, total GHG emissions associated with manufacturing, charging, and driving an EV are typically lower than the total GHGs associated with a gasoline car. That’s because EVs have zero tailpipe emissions and are typically responsible for significantly fewer GHGs during operation (see Myth 1 above).

For example, researchers at Argonne National Laboratory estimated emissions for both a gasoline car and an EV with a 300-mile electric range. In their estimates, while GHG emissions from EV manufacturing and end-of-life are higher (shown in orange below), total GHGs for the EV are still lower than those for the gasoline car.

Bar charts showing lifecycle GHGs for an electric vehicle and a gas car

Estimates shown² from GREET 2 2021 are intended to be illustrative only. Estimates represent model year 2020. Emissions will vary based on assumptions about the specific vehicles being compared, EV battery size and chemistry, vehicle lifetimes, and the electricity grid used to recharge the EV, among other factors.

Above, the blue bar represents emissions associated with the battery. The orange bars encompass the rest of the vehicle manufacturing (e.g., extracting materials, manufacturing and assembling other parts, and vehicle assembly) and end-of-life (recycling or disposal). The gray bars represent upstream emissions associated with producing gasoline or electricity (U.S. mix), and the yellow bar shows tailpipe emissions during vehicle operations.

Recycling EV batteries can reduce the emissions associated with making an EV by reducing the need for new materials. While some challenges exist today, research is ongoing to improve the process and rate of EV battery recycling. For more information on EV battery development and recycling, visit:

U.S. Department of Energy’s ReCell Center
National Blueprint for Lithium Batteries, 2021-2030 (pdf) (June 2021, report published by the Federal Consortium for Advanced Batteries)

Myth #3: The increase in electric vehicles entering the market will collapse the U.S. power grid.

FACT: Electric vehicles have charging strategies that can prevent overloading the grid, and, in some cases, support grid reliability.
It is true that the increasing number of electric vehicles (EVs) on the road will lead to increased electricity demand. Yet, how that impacts the grid will depend on several factors, such as the power level and time of day when vehicles are charged, and the potential for vehicle-to-grid (V2G) charging ³ among others.
- EVs can be charged at off-peak times, such as overnight, when rates are often cheaper. Even with a mix of charging times (so not all nighttime charging), research indicates that sufficient capacity will exist to cover EVs entering the market in the coming years.⁴ And further down the road, when renewables make up a larger part of our energy mix in many regions, switching to more daytime charging (when some renewables like solar generate energy) with some energy storage capability should allow the grid to handle increases in EV charging.⁵ California leads the country with more than 1 million electric vehicles and EV charging currently makes up less than 1% of the state’s grid total load, even during peak hours.⁶
- Vehicle-to-grid (V2G) charging allows EVs to act as a power source that may help with grid reliability by pushing energy back to the grid from an EV battery. This is done by allowing EVs to charge when electricity demand is low and drawing on them when that demand is high.
Long term, higher electricity demand from EV growth may drive the need for upgrades to transmission and distribution infrastructure. Planning for this possibility is underway. The Department of Energy’s (DOE) Build a Better Grid Initiative, launched as part of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, will provide over $13 billion towards improving the reliability and efficiency of the grid over the next decade. Visit DOE’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Programs and search “grid infrastructure” to see where the initial investments will be made.

Myth #4: There is nowhere to charge.

FACT: Electric vehicles can be plugged into the same type of outlet as your toaster! When you need to charge while on the road, you’ll find over 51,000 stations in the U.S. available to the public.
Many people can meet their driving needs by plugging in only at home. Most EVs can be charged with a standard 120 Volt (Level 1) outlet. To charge the vehicle more quickly, you can install a dedicated 240 Volt (Level 2) outlet or charging system. And for those who live in apartments or condominiums, EV charging stations are becoming a more common building amenity.

Access to EV charging will increase significantly in the coming years as a result of government initiatives put in place as part of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, including an investment of up to $7.5 billion to build out a national network of electric vehicle chargers along highways, and in communities and neighborhoods. In February 2023, the White House announced major progress toward a made-in-America national network of EV chargers.

Interested in seeing how many chargers may be needed in your area? Use DOE’s EV Pro Lite Tool to get an estimate on charging needs in your state or metropolitan area as EV adoption grows.

For up-to-date information on EV charging locations, visit DOE’s Alternative Fuel Data Center.

Myth #5: Electric vehicles don’t have enough range to handle daily travel demands.

FACT: Electric vehicle range is more than enough for typical daily use in the U.S.
EVs have sufficient range to cover a typical household’s daily travel, which is approximately 50 miles on average per day.⁷ The majority of households (roughly 85%) travel under 100 miles on a typical day. Most EV models go above 200 miles on a fully-charged battery, with nearly all new models traveling more than 100 miles on a single charge. And automakers have announced plans to release even more long-range models in the coming years.

Range estimates for specific EVs are available from the Find A Car tool on www.fueleconomy.gov—click on the car you are interested in, and check out the “EPA Fuel Economy” line in the table.

How you drive your vehicle and the driving conditions, including hot and cold weather, also affect the range of an EV; for instance, researchers found on average range could decrease about 40% due to cold temperatures and the use of heat.⁸

Myth #6: Electric vehicles only come as sedans.

FACT: Electric vehicles now come in a variety of shapes and sizes.
EVs and PHEVs are now available in many vehicle classes, extending beyond small sedan/compact models. There are currently more than 50 PHEV and EV models on the market. More models are being released in the coming years, so vehicle class options are likely to expand.

Myth #7: Electric vehicles are not as safe as comparable gasoline vehicles.

FACT: Electric vehicles must meet the same safety standards as conventional vehicles.
All light duty cars and trucks sold in the United States must meet the Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards. To meet these standards, vehicles must undergo an extensive, long-established testing process, regardless of whether the vehicle operates on gasoline or electricity. Separately, EV battery packs must meet their own testing standards. Moreover, EVs are designed with additional safety features that shut down the electrical system when they detect a collision or short circuit.

Malcolm · January 21

tomato or tomatoooo

Harsh realities of electric vehicles in Canada

Calgary Sun
21 Jan 2024
LORNE GUNTER lgunter@postmedia.com @sunlornegunter

img?regionKey=5xjTpS%2bqUVDmdwSCQcEbyw%3d%3d

CARLOS OSORIO/THE ASSOCIATED PRESS A woman charges her Tesla in Ann Arbor, Mich. A subzero cold snap across North America has exposed a big vulnerability for electric vehicle owners.

When it comes to electric vehicles (EVS), the Trudeau government and Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault are putting the policy cart before the technology horse.

If last week's extreme cold temperatures over most of the country taught us anything, it's that EVS just aren't practical (yet) for a country this big and this cold.

The federal Liberals may be willing to risk hundreds of billions of your tax dollars and mine for manufacturing subsidies, purchase subsidies and EV infrastructure to try to force a market for electrics into existence, but Canadians are just not ready to get rid of their internal combustion engines (ICES).

And with good reason.

I heard from a reader in northern Manitoba. He has a Ford Lightning (the fully electric version of the F-150 pickup).

When the temperature fell to -40 C last week, his truck's range dropped by half after driving it just 18 kms. He was forced to abandon his work-related trip so he could return home before the charge ran out and he found himself stranded quite literally in the middle of nowhere without heat in the cab.

Another reader, this one from Edmonton, found that not only was his range severely reduced by the cold, but charging time was doubled. His wait at a public fastcharger was two hours instead of one because he had to keep the heat on in his Tesla.

Many charging stations across the country have also been reported to stop working in the extreme cold.

Since this is a country that experiences extreme cold (below -25 C) most winters, that makes an EV an unacceptable risk, or at the very least a horrible inconvenience.

Also this week, the highly respected testing magazine, Consumer Reports, said that when temperatures are only as cold as 7 C, EVS lose about 25% of their range compared to temperatures of 15 C and a third when compared to temps of 25 C.

Ranges, of course, are much further diminished when outside temperatures fall below -20 C.

Additionally, Consumer Reports (CR) found that “short trips in the cold with frequent stops and the need to reheat the cabin after a parking pause saps 50% of the range.”

That means EVS may be impractical in Canada even for urban commuters or suburban families.

Late last year, CR also concluded EVS are 73% less reliable than gasoline vehicles. As well, they were more expensive to maintain and repair. And when the costs of electricity and home chargers are included, EVS are at least as expensive as gasoline vehicles to refuel.

That puts the lie to Guilbeault's claim (made in December when announcing his mandate that all new vehicles be EVS by 2035) that while EVS are more expensive to buy, once consumers drive them off the lot, they become much more affordable than gasoline or diesel vehicles.

Not only are EVS more expensive to buy and maintain, because of their weight, they chew through tires about 40% faster.

They're more expensive to insure because they cost so much more to repair if they are involved in an accident. They depreciate faster than ICES. And their batteries lose up to half of their life in four or five years, even if they are fully charged.

All of this explains why car-rental giant, Hertz, announced earlier this month that it was selling its EV fleet — 20,000 cars. They are just too expensive.

Electric vehicles may not be that good for the environment, either.

Many components are, of course, manufactured in China (or by Chinese companies operating elsewhere) using electricity from coalfired power plants. And this week, Blacklock's Reporter revealed the federal Fisheries department is reviewing Northvolt, the Swedish battery maker building a heavily subsidized plant in Quebec, for potential harm to fisheries, wetlands and streams.

The Liberals' EV mandate is a very, very expensive farce that will likely produce few, if any, environmental benefits.

Article Name:Harsh realities of electric vehicles in Canada

Publication:Calgary Sun

Author:LORNE GUNTER lgunter@postmedia.com @sunlornegunter

Start Page:9

End Page:9

Malcolm · January 22

Cars ready but infrastruction isn't

Tesla Drivers Wait 90 Minutes To Find Spot At This New York City Supercharger

Long Line At Tesla Supercharger In Brooklyn© InsideEVs

Half a dozen Tesla taxi drivers told InsideEVs they regularly lose two hours of business due to long lines at a Brooklyn Supercharger.

New York City is the greatest city in the world, some of us are led to believe. Skyscrapers, a melting pot of global talent, a bustling art and culture scene—the list goes on. But among its glories, New York's electric vehicle charging infrastructure is lagging far behind. It isn’t expanding in proportion to booming EV sales, overwhelming the existing (functional) chargers in the city, and the situation is negatively impacting the businesses of increasingly electric rideshare drivers.

A few days back, a Tesla owner took to X, the social media network formerly called Twitter, with a distress signal. “SOS, here’s a photo of what is happening at Brooklyn NYC Tesla Supercharger. It’s impossible to charge the car. Help us please,” the driver pleaded to CEO Elon Musk. The accompanying image showed a traffic jam of Teslas in a parking lot.

Since the Coney Island station was just a train ride away from InsideEVs’ headquarters in midtown Manhattan, I went on the ground to investigate the matter myself. What I found was a huge surge of rideshare drivers who went electric thanks to changing New York City rules around what kinds of cars can get a for-hire license, but got very little in the way of charging support in return.

This Supercharger is located in the parking lot of a Raymour and Flanigan furniture store on the southernmost tip of Brooklyn. It’s flanked by a Starbucks drive-thru on one side, and a veterinary center on the other, while the street is lined with automotive repair shops. The parking lot, an eyesore with dangling transmission cables and canted wooden light poles, houses 12 Tesla dispensers and four EVgo stalls. All the EVgo chargers were out of order, which is unfortunately not surprising.

Long Lines at a New York City Tesla Supercharger© Provided by InsideEVs Global

Thursday, January 18, 2024, New York City: The freestanding Supercharger is overcrowded because of limited charging options in the vicinity. InsideEVs/Suvrat Kothari

Ride-Hail Challenges As NYC Goes Electric

The sight of Teslas lining up outside charging stations is nothing new; we’ve seen that before. But at this particular location, the long lines have been persistent ever since the station opened a few weeks ago, said Bezgod Hoja, an Uber driver of Turkish descent.

Hoja, sitting in a white Model S P85D, wearing a black puffer jacket and blue jeans, said, “I [regularly] wait here for one hour just to get to the charging stall, and then another hour to get at least 80% range.”

Hoja is a resident of the nearby Seagate neighborhood on Coney Island, just five blocks away from this station. He said Tesla installed all the dispensers back in March 2023 but didn’t activate them until the end of last year. He said the station wasn’t granted the required permissions by the city for a long time. (InsideEVs could not independently verify this claim, although New York is notoriously slow when it comes to the permitting process.)

When I visited last week, there were 20 EVs lined up at this station, and an additional 12 were charging—most of them Teslas with Taxi and Limousine Commission (TLC) plates—this has evolved from being a temporary inconvenience into somewhat of an enduring feature. Last year, the New York City TLC enforced a new mandate that essentially requires new for-hire vehicle (FHV) licenses to be electric. The TLC’s move was aimed at increasing the volume of zero-emissions FHVs in the city to make the fleet greener, tackle air pollution, and reduce the reliance on gas cars. And drivers seem to have embraced this change.

Since the rule kicked in last year, TLC has approved over 4,700 applications from private owners and rideshare companies and continues to grant more approvals.

But drivers might purchase EVs, obtain federal incentives (now at the point of sale), register for TLC plates, and spend hundreds of dollars in insurance, only to run into an insufficient charging network.

Nowhere Else To Go

When I asked Hoja why he didn’t pick an alternative Supercharger, he responded with dismay. “Where?” he said pointing his finger to the map on his Model S’s infotainment screen, revealing long wait times at all Superchargers in the city. The journey to JFK Airport, the only other Tesla Supercharger in the city without parking fees, entailed an hour-long drive.

Similarly, a trip to two downtown Brooklyn stations—with pay and park—during peak hours took 40 minutes, and the wait times, as indicated on the map, were just as long. (It's not clear if any of the drivers I talked to knew about, or have used, the EV fast-charger stations installed by ride-hail startup Revel. Those stations do not have parking fees, only charging fees.)

Ellie Simpson, another Uber driver and a wedding planner, faced the same issue. Clad in a furry dark brown and white overcoat, she was sitting in a black Model Y Performance. The warm air from the Model Y’s air vents momentarily comforted my frozen hand as I pulled up the recorder to her. “I'm a single mom of three. I'm losing an hour and a half of my earnings a day doing this, just waiting in the line, when that could be more money and more food for my children,” Simpson said in an exasperated voice.

Uber drivers earn between $35-50 an hour, contingent on demand, according to Simpson. “This is one of the few stations in the city where you don't have to pay for parking, so that's why it's driving a lot of attention. And with the cold climate, we must charge more frequently,” she added. A few days ago, she arrived at the station with five percent battery left, and by the time she plugged in, the battery drained to one percent.

Simpson was disappointed with the congestion fee at high-traffic Superchargers. To keep the lines moving at these stations, and to discourage customers from charging their EVs to 100%, Tesla now commands a $1 fee for each minute the vehicle remains plugged in after reaching 80 percent state of charge. Charging speeds peak when the battery levels are low, gradually slowing down as they approach full capacity.

Tesla Supercharger In Brooklyn New York© Provided by InsideEVs Global

Thursday, January 18, 2024, New York City: Drivers said the Superchargers worked well despite the freezing conditions since they're in use 24/7. InsideEVs/Suvrat Kothari

“Living in NYC, most of us cannot charge at home, and this station is 30 minutes from my house. So I should be able to charge to maximum capacity. Instead of charging us, they [Tesla and local authorities] should focus on getting more freestanding stations,” Simpson said.

In a letter Simpson plans to send to Uber, she has said, “The incentives offered by Uber for having an EV do not compensate for the lost drive time and earnings. At this point, being part of a rideshare program has become more of a burden than a benefit.”

This Brooklyn Supercharger is also open to non-Tesla EVs with CCS compatibility. Segundo, a taxi driver helming a first-generation Hyundai Ioniq Electric, voiced concerns about the long lines and reduced range in the winter affecting his earnings. With the heat off, the Ioniq Electric delivers 190 miles of range, but that figure drops to 160 miles with the heat on, he said.

“Recently, a customer wanted to go to Connecticut. I agreed but requested a 30-minute charging time before heading out. They declined, and I lost hundreds of dollars just because of the long lines,” he said. “And the cold makes matters worse. I can drive up to eight hours in the summer, but this car needs charging every six hours in a winter like this,” he said, pointing both his hands frustratedly at the battery reading on his gauge cluster.

Malcolm · January 22

here is a thought, perhaps it is time to link the import of EVs with a requirement for the auto company to build and maintain charging stations in proportion to the number of new imports?

BYDDF

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BREAKING NEWS: Liberal MHA and cabinet minister Derrick Bragg dead at 59

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Why China poses a growing threat to the U.S. auto industry

China recently reported exports of more than 5 million vehicles in 2023, topping Japan to become the top country for car exports in the world.
Rising volume from Chinse automakers like SAIC, Dongfeng and BYD comes amid declining U.S. vehicle exports as companies like General Motors have cut international operations.
Chinese companies are releasing new models in record times, and many are producing EVs efficiently and profitably.

DETROIT — Chinese automakers pose a growing threat to their American counterparts — even without selling directly to consumers in the U.S. market.

Sales of China-made vehicles are rising at notable rates in Asia, Europe and other countries outside those continents. China recently reported exports of more than 5 million vehicles in 2023, topping Japan to become the top country for car exports in the world.

That volume from well-established, government-owned companies like SAIC and Dongfeng, as well as newer players like BYD, Nio and others, has catapulted China from the sixth ranking to the top seed since 2020. It comes amid declining U.S. vehicle exports as companies such as General Motors have cut international operations. U.S. auto exports in 2022, the most recent data available, were down 25% from their peak in 2016, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

America — fourth globally in vehicle exports prior to 2020 — ranked sixth in the world last year, falling behind No. 5 Mexico, No. 4 South Korea and No. 3 Germany, according to global consulting firm AlixPartners.

"My No. 1 competitor is the Chinese carmakers," said Carlos Tavares, CEO of Chrysler parent Stellantis, during a virtual media roundtable Friday. "This is going to be a big fight. There is no other way for a global carmaker like Stellantis that is operating all over the world than to go head-on with the Chinese carmakers. There is no other way."

The threat extends beyond export volumes. Chinese automakers have set a new standard for vehicle production and pricing. They're releasing new models in record times, and many are producing EVs efficiently and profitably — something that has alluded global automakers including America's GM and Ford Motor.

BYD dominance

Automotive experts have pointed to BYD Co. as a prime example of the rise of China's automakers. The company, backed by the Beijing government, last year topped Tesla to become the world's largest seller of EVs.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk, whose company operates a large plant in China, has said Chinese automakers are the greatest competitors for his Texas-based company.

"There's a lot of people who are out there who think that the top 10 car companies are going to be Tesla followed by nine Chinese car companies. I think they might not be wrong," Musk said at The New York Times' Dealbook conference in November.

Rhodium Group estimates that BYD received approximately $4.3 billion in state support between 2015 and 2020, according to The Economist. Beijing has also offered subsidies to incentivize buyers of electric cars.

BYD has cracked a code for low-priced EVs that seemingly transcends borders: Its BYD Seagull, a tiny EV that starts at roughly $11,400, would significantly undercut U.S. EV prices at less than $15,000 even when factoring in America's 27.5% tariff on Chinese-made vehicles.

"This is a car that scares me," said Kristin Dziczek, automotive policy advisor for the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's Detroit branch, during the organization's Automotive Insights Symposium last week. "How are we going to cut the price of EVs in half? China's already done it."

Mathew Vachaparampil, CEO of auto teardown and consulting firm Caresoft Global, estimates BYD is making $1,500 off each Seagull unit sold. At worst, the company breaks even, he said.

And the company is shipping more vehicles outside China: Overseas markets accounted for about 10% of BYD's more than 3 million sales last year, doubling that share from the the beginning of the year, according to Bernstein.

"BYD has an unparalleled cost structure and product innovation ability, that stems from its high degree of vertical integration which will enable the company to thrive in the ongoing EV race in China and abroad," Bernstein analyst Eunice Lee said in an analyst note last week. "Despite growing pricing pressure in China, we expect the company's focus on overseas and premium segments will support 29% [compound annual growth rate] in earnings through 2025."

Growth gone global

Backed by local and federal governments, the growth of Chinese automakers began in their home country — taking share away from mandatory joint ventures between non-domestic automakers and Chinese companies.

For example, GM's share of the Chinese market, including its joint ventures, has plummeted from roughly 15% in 2015 to 8.6% at the end of the third quarter last year.

"What's going on in China at home? These [new energy vehicle] brands have become dominant," Mark Wakefield, global co-leader of the automotive and industrial practice at AlixPartners, said at the Chicago Fed's auto conference. "They were 26% [market share] a few years ago, up to more than 50% in 2022 and headed towards two-thirds by the end of the decade."

BYD's new luxury brand Yangwang is selling its first model, the U8, for more than 1 million yuan (US$160,000).© Provided by CNBC

And the growth hasn't stayed home. Chinese companies have begun expanding into Mexico, Europe and elsewhere, Wakefield said. They've largely done so through cheap, relatively inexpensive models — some of which American automakers have given up on — as well as EVs, which experts view as an open market for the companies.

Chinese companies accounted for 8% of Europe's all-electric vehicle sales as of September last year and could increase their share to 15% by 2025, according to the European Union. The EU believes Chinese EVs are undercutting the prices of local models by about 20% in the European market.

The influx of Chinese EVs has spurred the European Union to launch government support for the industry.

In Mexico, China-built vehicles with internal combustion engines increased from 0% market share to 20% of the country's light-duty vehicle sales over the past six years, according the Chicago Fed's Dziczek.

"Mexico is the second-largest market for China-made vehicles other than Russia," she said. "They're going to be on our shores in Mexico in the not-too-distant future."

Coming to America

For decades, Chinese auto companies have said they will begin selling vehicles in the U.S. under their own brands, but none have succeeded.

That's not to say China doesn't compete in the U.S. market. Aside from major supply chain ties, there are also a handful of auto brands owned by Chinese companies operating in the U.S., such as Lotus, Volvo (including its Polestar spin-off) and niche EV maker Karma.

American companies, such as GM and Ford already, or plan to, manufacture some vehicles in China to be imported and sold in the U.S. GM imports its Buick Envision from China to the U.S., while Ford last year said it would import its forthcoming Lincoln Nautilus crossover from China.

But as of yet, a U.S. driver can't easily buy a Dongfeng, BYD or other Chinese-made vehicle stateside.

Aside from potential regulatory hurdles and protectionism acts, some believe Chinese automakers could find success in expanding to the U.S. market the same way Japan's Toyota Motor and South Korea's Hyundai Motor have done.

Those automakers made their entrances to the U.S. market with affordable, accessible vehicles, then increased their offerings to boost quality and safety and ultimately expanded to higher-end models.

"The Japanese carmakers came to the U.S. in the '70s," Stellantis' Tavares said. "They needed 50 years to reach the top of the market with some of the competitors that we know well. I don't see any reason why this would not happen with the Chinese.

deicer · January 22

48 minutes ago, Malcolm said:

here is a thought, perhaps it is time to link the import of EVs with a requirement for the auto company to build and maintain charging stations in proportion to the number of new imports?

This would be the equivalent of Japanese and European ICE automobile manufacturers having to install and operate gasoline stations.

That just means that more profits would be leaving the country.

Where we are is equivalent to the late 40's and 50's where there was a boom in automobile sales in North America. Like back then, infrastructure will catch up eventually.

Don't count on private enterprise to do it either.

Aren't corporations in the U.S. reaping the benefits of the Eisenhower Interstate system?

https://highways.dot.gov/highway-history/interstate-system/50th-anniversary/interstate-highway-system-myths

https://www.convenience.org/Topics/Fuels/The-History-of-Fuels-Retailing

Edited January 22 by deicer

Malcolm · January 22

1 hour ago, deicer said:

This would be the equivalent of Japanese and European ICE automobile manufacturers having to install and operate gasoline stations.

That just means that more profits would be leaving the country.

Not sure that would be a problem if the Domestic auto makers can not supply the product. Re a profit, that would be a surprise.

Then perhaps it is time to make the same requirement of the Canadian Auto Makers and let them reap the profits (if any)

Malcolm · January 24

Hmmm is our government wrong or is Toyota right? Just Toyota or the entire industry?

Toyota bZ4X© InsideEVs

Toyota Chairman Questions Full Transition To Electric MobilityAt best, EVs will account for only 30 percent market share, Akio Toyota predicts.

During a recent business event, Toyota Chairman Akio Toyoda expressed his belief that battery electric vehicles will reach a maximum market share of 30 percent, while the remainder will be divided among hybrids, hydrogen fuel cell cars, and traditional fuel-burning vehicles. Toyoda, the grandson of the company's founder, emphasized the importance of customer choice and autonomy in deciding the future of the automotive industry.

During the event, remarks published on Toyota's own media platform quoted Toyoda as saying, "With a billion people in the world living without electricity, limiting their choices and ability to travel by making expensive cars isn't the answer." He went on to stress that the decision on vehicle types should be driven by customers rather than regulatory or political considerations.

"Engines will surely remain," Toyoda stated in the company publication, though it remains unclear whether he was referring to new car sales or vehicles already on the road. The chairman's remarks also did not provide clarity on his predictions for the US market, where the growth of EV market share has been slower than anticipated.LP and L customers in a little over three weeks

Toyota's approach to EVs has been notably conservative compared to some of its industry counterparts. The company's steadfast commitment to its pioneering hybrid technology has set the tone for its more measured transition to battery-powered mobility, with a belief that a one-size-fits-all approach may not be suitable for all markets and consumer preferences. This conservative stance reflects the company's pragmatic consideration of global energy infrastructure, customer needs, and the longevity of existing vehicle fleets, challenging the prevailing trend toward a rapid and exclusive shift to electric propulsion.

About a year ago, Toyoda, then Toyota’s CEO, declared that going green also involves converting existing combustion-powered cars into electric vehicles or hydrogen machines. A few weeks before that interview, the Japanese firm displayed two AE86 Concepts at the Tokyo Auto Salon, previewing greener conversations of older vehicles. The first used a Mirai-sourced hydrogen powertrain, while the other used an electric motor sourced from a Tundra hybrid and a battery pack from a Prius plug-in hybrid.

Source: Automotive News

mo32a · January 24

How about water powered vehicles?

Malcolm · January 26

TMADSEN: Cold weather exposes downsides of heat pumps, EVs

The motivated Climate Emergency crusaders and politicians have an ambitious list of the things they wish to implement (along with those they want to ban).

Foremost among their favourites are alternative energy sources, such as wind and solar along with batteries and electric vehicles, EV s — they could replace all the fossil fuel burning that power our economy, allowing us to live highly comfortable and productive lives. However, reality is intruding, in the form of winter.

Frigid ‘ Arctic vortexes,’ i.e. cold fronts in the old days, recently invaded North America, and elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere. Electric vehicles have frozen in parking lots and at owners’ homes and are piling up in auto dealers’ lots. Charging stations, never prolific enough to guarantee availability to EV drivers, are now freezing up and malfunctioning. Crucially, rural people cannot rely on EV s.

Solar and wind power, now a substantial portion of Alberta ’ s power grid (17% in 2022), have proven inadequate to deal with soaring power demand in the province ’ s record cold temperatures

Through bad luck, some gas-fired power plants that provide baseload power, supporting unreliable and intermittent “ green” power, were offline for repairs or maintenance during the recent cold snap. This is crucial: solar and wind have unpredictable outputs, and wind is more unpredictable than solar . Like solar does, wind tends to decline at nighttime – worse in winter. There is little energy storage, due to expense. Soaring costs and poor performance have doomed major wind project proposals.

In the climate lobby’s fantasyland, heat pumps are to be mandated by federal and provincial governments, some municipalities, and some other governments around the world. A local contractor noted, in a Prince George Citizen story, that heat pump efficiency plummets as outdoor temperatures decline below zero Celsius — and can fail at -25C or worse. This affects not just northern B.C. but the Prairies and most of Ontario and Quebec.

The coils can frost over and cease to function, requiring backup from natural gas furnaces — the same furnaces that the Climate crusaders are plotting to ban. This means new furnace- bereft buildings facing freeze-up, broken water pipes, and even possible deaths among their residents.

Banning gas ranges and clothes driers, also on the hitlist, would be annoying, but at least not deadly.

Heat pumps are impressive, but not as wonderful as their crusaders have proclaimed. Even in mild climates, and at gas prices much higher than today, heat pumps are uncompetitive against gas furnaces. In colder climates — most of Canada — they are irrational.

It can make sense to put solar panel arrays atop big flat roofs in sunny, warm places such as Texas and Arizona, even farther north in some circumstances. However, even then, most places rely on gas or coal-fired power for protection against extreme cold or heat events. Adding battery storage of an hour a day per year from the savings of solar versus grid power might someday be viable, but would never be able to replace reliable gas, coal, nuclear, or even hydroelectric power, where available.

The nonexistent threat from carbon dioxide and negligible actual global warming are driving irrational and disastrous public policy decisions, squandering billions and punishing our biggest exports, source of high-paying jobs, and tax revenue: oil and gas. Canadians should oppose these draconian edicts or face dire consequences.

— Ian Madsen is the Senior Policy Analyst at the Frontier Centre for Public Policy

Malcolm · January 30

GM's plan to bring back hybrids is a win for dealers and shoppers

Story by nnaughton@insider.com (Nora Naughton) • 1h

GM is going to rely on hybrids to meet emissions regulations.
This could be the first domino to fall in a big year for hybrids.
A new crop of electric car shoppers is showing interest for plug-in hybrids.

GM will sell hybrids in North America after all, CEO Mary Barra said Tuesday.

On the company's fourth-quarter earnings call, Barra reversed course from GM's "all-in" electric vehicle strategy, saying that plug-in hybrids will play a role in helping the company meet more stringent tailpipe emission regulations in the coming years.

"GM remains committed to eliminating tailpipe emissions from our light-duty vehicles by 2035," Barra said. "But in the interim, deploying plug-in technology in strategic segments will deliver some of the environmental benefits of EVs as the nation continues to build its charging infrastructure."

These are the least reliable cars you can buy, according to a survey of more than 300,000 owners©Scott Olson/Getty Images

Consumer Reports released its annual ranking of the most- and least-reliable cars and brands.
Toyota and Lexus top the reliability list, while Chrysler, Jeep, Volkswagen and others fall near the bottom.
Plug-in hybrids performed poorly in this year's survey, CR said.

Pickups might be America's sweethearts, but they're far from reliable.

The segment came in absolute last place in Consumer Reports' annual reliability rankings, behind even hybrids and EVs, which have seen an uptick in owner complaints.

To compile the list, the magazine collected surveys from owners of more than 330,000 vehicles. The surveys covered 2020-2023 model-year vehicles and some 2024 models. Consumer Reports asked owners about 20 "potential trouble areas" to create a score between 1 and 100 for each vehicle. Those scores influence an automaker's overall reliability ratings.

These are the 10 least-reliable brands this year, according to Consumer Reports.

This about-face for GM, which has loudly touted its commitment to an all-electric future, is a good sign for dealers and shoppers heading into this year. Dealers have reportedly pressured GM to provide more hybrid options as EV shopping habits change.

It may also be the first domino to fall as demand for hybrid vehicles reaches new highs. A new wave of electric car shoppers are more willing to consider hybrids as an option and might even pay a premium for that technology over a gas-powered car.

Related vide

Pure EVs, on the other hand, are suffering from a softness in demand as more practical shoppers are less willing to change their lifestyle to conform to a fully electric car. High price points aren't helping things either.

While companies like GM and rival Ford pull back on their EV expectations, hybrids can serve as a good bridge technology for shoppers who still want a more environmentally friendly vehicle. And it appears that companies with more hybrid focus are catching the attention of consumers.

A recent study from GBK Collective, a consulting firm, found that Toyota – which has heavily prioritized hybrids over electric cars – was the most frequently considered brand among shoppers interested in buying an EV or hybrid, reflecting a turn away from EV giant Tesla.

More hybrids on dealer lots are a good thing for shoppers, as the lack of supply has put a price premium on the few models in the market. More options are likely to ease some of this pricing pressure and open up the hybrid market to more shoppers.

"We believe that the market is ripe for much greater adoption for battery-powered vehicles should the industry do the work to listen to consumers and better understand the market," GBK President Jeremy Korst previously told Business Insider.

Malcolm · February 2

Tesla Inc

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WASHINGTON, Feb 2 (Reuters) - U.S. safety regulators have upgraded their probe into Tesla (TSLA.O), opens new tab vehicles over power steering loss to an engineering analysis - a required step before the agency could demand a potential recall.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) on Friday said the investigation covers about 334,000 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles from the 2023 model year.

The agency's upgraded probe follows a December Reuters investigation that found tens of thousands of Tesla owners have experienced premature failures of suspension or steering parts over at least seven years, citing Tesla documents and interviews with customers and former employees.

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Some drivers reported harrowing tales of sudden power steering outages at speeds that nearly caused accidents. The Tesla documents showed that the automaker sought to blame drivers for frequent failures of suspension and steering parts it has long known were defective.

Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the NHTSA's upgraded investigation.

The NHTSA, which had opened a preliminary evaluation in July into loss of steering control in 280,000 Tesla Model 3 and Y vehicles after 12 drivers reported problems, said it has now identified a total of 2,388 complaints. Some Tesla owners reported an inability to turn the steering wheel while others reported an increase in required effort.

The agency said it had linked one crash to the investigation in which a driver couldn't complete a right-hand turn at an intersection and struck a vehicle. Tesla and NHTSA jointly inspected the vehicle.

Some drivers told NHTSA that the steering issues continued until the power-steering rack was replaced. NHTSA said the probe will examine the conditions leading to and resulting from the steering rack failures.

Malcolm · February 7

Ford Plays The Long Game As EVs May Wait For 'Breakthrough' Moment

Story by Patrick George • 1h

Ford Mustang Mach-E Platform© InsideEVs

Plus, GM signs a big new deal with South Korea’s LG Chem.

Lately, it's been hard to read the news without seeing some story about the "electric vehicle slowdown" or how car companies are "rethinking" their EV-related investments. But that's a pretty shallow assessment; what's really going on is that most automakers now seem to be settling in for the long haul instead of walking this stuff back entirely. And you can see this pretty much across the board, if you look closely enough.

That idea is the central focus of this midweek edition of Critical Materials, our morning news roundup that covers the auto industry's tech- and battery-focused shift. Also to that end today: General Motors just signed a big battery-related deal with LG Chem, and the entire EV market seems to be waiting for its next "breakthrough" moment. Let's dig in.

30%: Don't Count Ford Out

Ford Mustang Mach-E Rally© InsideEVs

Ford's Q4 2023 earnings call last night brought a lot of news on the electric front: handsome profits from gas trucks sold to consumers and fleets, continued $4.7 billion losses on its EV-focused Model e division (including $1.57 billion that quarter alone), and some interesting details from CEO Jim Farley about a secret project within the company to develop a much cheaper EV platform that can compete with the Chinese automakers and whatever Tesla may be cooking up there.

That last part is important, and we'll get back to it in a moment. For now, here's Farley talking about taking time to set up things like the total vertical integration of its battery supply, via CNBC:

“One of the things we’re taking advantage of in taking some timing delays is rationalizing the level and timing of our battery capacity to match demand and actually reassessing the vertical integration that we’re relying on, and betting on new chemistries and capacities,” Farley said during the automaker’s fourth-quarter earnings call.

Farley reiterated the company still believes EVs will grow, but noted widespread adoption for mass-market consumers won’t happen until the costs are more in line with traditional vehicles. EVs are typically thousands of dollars more expensive than their gas-powered counterparts.

Ford Chief Financial Officer John Lawler said in addition to reassessing the vertical integration in new battery chemistries, the company is further looking into adjusting installed production capacity to match demand and potentially delaying next-generation EVs to “to ensure they meet our criteria for profitability, given the new market reality.”

Lawler did add that the Model e division will have to stand on its own “sooner rather than later." But these moves—especially that cheap EV platform—are certainly not those of a company retreating from the electric game or betting on a long-term future for gasoline-powered cars, despite what you may read elsewhere.

60%: Waiting On That Next Breakthrough

On this topic, I'll point you to an opinion piece in Bloomberg that speaks to the challenge we cover here quite often: the market is still waiting for truly affordable electric vehicles. This piece argues Tesla is likely to get there first (something I don't disagree with) and says that every time Tesla has dropped something new, historically, you saw a mini-boom of competitors to keep up:

Thus far, there have been three step changes in EV demand in the US, when sales doubled or almost doubled: 2012-2013, 2018 and 2021. All roughly coincided with the launch of a game-changing model, all manufactured by Tesla Inc.

That would be Model S, Model 3 and then Model Y. (The author correctly does not put the Cybertruck in the game-changer category.) But right now, the electric world has an affordability and profitability problem, and that's the exact same challenge Ford's skunkworks team is trying to solve too. After all, EV prices still skew pretty high, especially without the Chevrolet Bolt on the market and the pending demise of the Nissan Leaf:

While the more pessimistic takes on EVs seem a bit ridiculous in the context of a market that grew by roughly half last year, signs of creeping fatigue are unmistakable. EV sales in the last three months of 2023 recorded their first quarter-on-quarter drop in almost two years; meanwhile, year-over-year growth of 31% marked a significant slowdown. This came against a backdrop of ongoing price cuts, savaging profit margins (including Tesla’s) and residual values, prompting the likes of Hertz Global Holdings Inc. to U-turn on ambitious EV rental rollouts.

Besides the perennial problem of sparse, and too-often unreliable public charging — outside of Tesla’s network — the US taste for trucks has skewed the EV product slate here toward heavy, and thereby expensive, models. Whereas sub-$30,000 models represent the biggest category in China, the US lineup tends to cluster in the $50,000 to $80,000 range. What’s needed are cheaper, mass-market models.

[...] EV sales are forecast to grow again this year. BloombergNEF’s base case is a 32% increase, which would be the slowest rate in five years. Notably, analyst Corey Cantor writes that the difference between the high and low growth scenarios — 45% and just 13%, respectively — “could be whether or not any automakers beyond Tesla … [are] able to clinch a breakthrough.”

That's worth a read in full. And it's why even Tesla is trading pretty low at the moment; this won't be another year of significant growth for them. That won't happen until the budget EV comes out in the next few years sometime.

But it makes sense: maybe 2023 and 2024 were the rapid takeoff points that automakers wanted (perhaps unrealistically) for their EVs. Instead, we're at the phase when everyone is building up their battery plants, figuring out how to make these things, and working on breakthroughs to make them much cheaper. Whenever that happens, we could see the next huge takeoff point.

90%: GM And LG Chem Team Up For $19 Billion Cathode Supply Deal

GM Battery Researchers And Engineers At Work© InsideEVs

Here's another example of an automaker that's had a ton of challenges on the EV front gearing up for a long-term position: GM and South Korean tech giant LG have another tie-up in the works, this one a $19 billion deal for battery materials. From the Wall Street Journal:

The Seoul-based chemical company said Wednesday that it signed a 10-year deal to provide GM with more than 500,000 tons of cathode materials—enough to make batteries for about five million EVs—beginning in 2026. It said the cathode supply is worth at least 24.75 trillion won ($18.65 billion).

LG Chem will produce the material in Tennessee, where it broke ground on a plant in December as part of plans to boost its role in the North American EV chain. The facility, which it expects will become the largest cathode material plant in the U.S., will produce up to 60,000 metric tons of cathode materials a year starting 2026.

LG Chem said the deal with GM builds on a plan the companies made in 2022 for the long-term supply of cathode materials.

That's a short item, but it says a lot.

100%: What EV Breakthrough Gets The Market To Adoption?

In your view, what "breakthrough" is that? Solid-state batteries with 600+ miles of range? Ultra-fast charging times? Just prices below $30,000? And more importantly, which car company gets there first?

And remember, automakers like China's BYD are doing a lot of that right now, and when it comes to the U.S. market, the only thing keeping them away are regulations and tariffs.

More EV News

Malcolm · February 8

Report / article from the UK

MailOnline US - news, sport, celebrity, science and health stories

Thursday, Feb 8th 2024 8AM 14°F 11AM 21°F 5-Day Forecast

EXCLUSIVEElectric car owners reveal why they are pulling the plug on their green machines after House of Lords committee revealed private owner sales are stalling - and no, it's NOT Rowan Atkinson's fault

House of Lords report published Tuesday revealed private EV sales are slowing
Have YOU abandoned your EV? Email arthur.parashar@mailonline.co.uk

By ARTHUR PARASHAR

PUBLISHED: 07:56 EST, 8 February 2024 | UPDATED: 09:58 EST, 8 February 2024

Electric car owners have revealed why they are pulling the plug on their green machines after a House of Lords committee report showed that EV sales were slowing in Britain.

The report which was published on Tuesday said EV sales were 'stalling' among private motorists as many were struggling to finance them and because of limited public charging points – particularly in rural areas.

But MailOnline found this week that even where public chargers were installed, many EV charging bays lay empty.

That's despite Prime Minister Rishi Sunak aiming to completely phase out petrol, diesel and hybrid vehicles by 2035 - something he pushed back five years in September.

As a blame game erupts in Westminster over the stalling of sales, even actor Rowan Atkinson has been held accountable by campaigners after he described EVs as 'a bit soulless' in a comment piece he wrote last June.

After industry figures showed new EV sales to private car buyers plummeted by 25 per cent last month compared with January 2023, drivers have fumed how their electric vehicles have dropped in value, charging costs have soared and incentives have been scrapped.

Paul Lane, who acquired his electric Volkswagen ID.3 on a Personal Contract Purchase (PCP) in November 2021, has seen his car's value drop from £37,762 to £18,888 after 14,000 miles in two years, according to online tracker Motorway.

81012585-13060787-image-a-33_17073957577

+18

Mr Lane has had troubles with his insurance rising, having to replace all four tyres after 13,000 miles and having to get planning permission for a charging point

The parish councillor said that the Volkswagen ID.3 was worth £37,000 when he acquired it on a Personal Contract Purchase (PCP) just over two years ago but its value has dropped to £21,000 after just 14,000 miles on the road

+18

The proportion of EV sales dropped from 16.6 per cent in 2022 to 16.5 per cent in 2023. It had been predicted to reach 17.7 per cent in 2023

Mr Lane's EV was worth £37,000 when he acquired it but this graph on Motorway shows it is now down at £18,888 after 14,000 miles - almost a 50 per cent drop in two years

TRENDING

Is the public's love affair with electric cars over?

The 80-year-old parish councillor also told MailOnline how his insurance rose from £450 to £750 a year, he had to replace all four tyres after 13,000 miles and he also had to spend £260 on planning permission to install a charging point at his home.

Mr Lane, who is also an IAM Observer, said it was a 'disgrace' that the Government is stopping incentives such as road tax exemption, subsidies and home charging grants.

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt announced in November that electric car owners would have to pay road tax from 2025. Meanwhile, a 'plug in grant' for EV drivers previously entitled motorists to a £2,500 discount, but this was removed in June 2022.

Mr Lane told MailOnline. 'There's no incentive whatsoever from the Government to push people towards buying electric cars. There's just no incentive.'

When asked whether he was surprised by the stalling of EV sales, he added: 'Not given the Government's complete and utter lack of incentives for us to buy them.

'I think the road tax is disgraceful, all the bells and whistles several years ago. "Yeah come on, buy electric vehicles - no road tax, home charging grants, new car subsidies". It's all gone.'

It comes as annual figures showed that the proportion of car sales that were electric had dropped from 16.6 per cent in 2022 to 16.5 per cent last year - the first time it has fallen into reverse.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) had forecast that EVs would account for 17.7 per cent of new car sales in March 2023. They also predicted that sales would rise to 59.6 per cent by 2026-27.

Business owner and self-confessed petrolhead Nigel Pullen said that he will not be choosing an EV again after leasing one for work. Pictured is his current EV on charge

MailOnline found that several EV charging bays were lying empty. This one is pictured in Morley, Leeds

Six empty charging EV bays are seen at a Tesco supermarket in Merton, London

A number of empty electric vehicle charging car park spaces at Cattle Market car park in Bicester, Oxfordshire

Mr Lane blamed the Government for the decline in sales and asked the question: 'Do the Government really want to encourage electric vehicle? I don't think so.'

He highlighted that the cost of charging at home versus public has become a major issue.

Mr Lane explained: 'At home for my seven kilowatt charger I pay about 28 per kWh. Pod Point, which is the cheapest in the country and used to be free at Tesco is now 44p per kWh.

'You can't really have an electric vehicle without having to have a charger and for these people with apartments, it's just not going to happen.'

Ford loses $47k per EV sold as electric bet backfires

FEarnings beat

1 / 11

Ford loses $47k per EV sold as electric bet backfires©Provided by Daily Mail

Ford has said it will slash spending on EVs because it can't sell enough to offset costs - as it revealed it lost $47,000 on each electric car it sold last quarter. CEO Jim Farley said Tuesday the company would instead ramp up investment in hybrid cars - copying a business strategy long favored by the drivetrain's godfather, Toyota.

Malcolm · February 9

Not only electric vehicles in trouble (demand vs gas driven) but other alternates are also in trouble. Even in feels good land.

Shell Is Immediately Closing All Of Its California Hydrogen Stations

2016 Toyota Mirai© InsideEVs

The oil giant is one of the big players in hydrogen globally, but even it can't make its operations work here.

Shell Hydrogen will permanently close all seven of its California pumping stations immediately, the company confirmed this week. It will no longer operate light-duty hydrogen stations in the U.S., and represents another blow to the struggling hydrogen car market in the only state where the fuel is widely available at all.

The outlet Hydrogen Insight first reported the news on Thursday. Shell had, until recently, operated seven of the 55 total retail hydrogen stations in California, per the Hydrogen Fuel Cell Partnership (H2FCP). That makes this a blow, but not apocalyptic news for the (small) hydrogen community.

Get Fully Charged

Hydrogen Is Stalling Out

Car manufacturers and gas giants alike have long promoted hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles as an alternative to battery electric vehicles. The technology is promising for commercial trucking and heavy-duty applications, but the light-duty market has failed to materialize in the United States.

Unfortunately, the reason why Shell is closing up shop should give Toyota Mirai, Hyundai Nexo, and Honda Clarity Fuel Cell owners—God bless 'em—even more cause for concern. In the letter announcing the closure, Shell Hydrogen Vice President Andrew Beard said they were shutting them down "due to hydrogen supply complications and other external market factors." It's not hard to see what Beard is referencing here. l

The second-generation Mirai looks great. But unless you live in Southern California or the Bay Area, you won't be able to buy fuel for it.

A brief scan of H2FCP's fantastic station map shows that a majority of the Hydrogen stations in Southern California are offline or operating with reduced hours. Hydrogen Insight reports that this shortage has been disrupting stations since August 13. During my one experience in a Mirai, the Uber driver behind the wheel noted that it had become even more of a nightmare to find fuel, and the situation has gotten worse since then. Each station has a slightly different notice posted on H2FCP's map, but this one from an Iwatani hydrogen filling station captures the spirit of them all:

Toyota stays focused on hydrogen despite EV popularity

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Some are also down for repairs, as many hydrogen stations suffer from serious reliability issues. Iwatani, a Japanese gas company that is one of the two largest names in American hydrogen filling stations, is currently suing the company that provided the core technology for its stations. In a court filing viewed by Hydrogen Insight, Iwatini alleges that its provider did not test its equipment in a real-world commercial scenario, hid defects, and misled the company. It is, in short, a big mess.

The Honda FCX Clarity was the first production hydrogen fuel-cell vehicle to reach the U.S., way back in 2008. A decade and a half later, most Americans still aren't familiar with hydrogen cars.

All of this makes the future of hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles in the United States even more uncertain. The technology has struggled to catch on, as the stations and their fuel remain expensive. Though hydrogen car manufacturers usually include a large amount of free fuel in the purchase of a vehicle, once that runs out consumers are left with eye-watering prices from stations that are often broken, out of fuel, or swarmed with long lines. It's why used hydrogen cars are so cheap, and why they still aren't a good deal.

Few companies can make a better case for it than Shell, though, as the cheapest way to produce hydrogen involves a lot of natural gas. Its proximity to the fossil-fuel industry was supposed to make it cheaper, and provide incentive for robust fueling infrastructure. That hasn't played out, though, and one of the largest oil giants is throwing in the towel. If even a fossil giant like Shell can't justify investing in the future of light-duty hydrogen infrastructure, we're not sure who can.

More About Hydrogen Cars

Airband · February 12

Treasure Troves on the Tarmac

Commercial jets nearing the end of their life are an unlikely target for cheap parts for electric cars

Planes parked in Victorville, California

Mon Feb 12, 2024 - Bloomberg Hyperdirve

Nandina REM says it’s developed a method to repurpose aviation-grade aluminum panels for electric-vehicle battery casings. It has the potential to be a growing business, as the number of retired aircraft around the world is set to triple over the next decade to more than 20,000, according to industry estimates.

The salvaging of parts from obsolete jets could yield tens of millions of battery cases, Nandina estimates. The company is also exploring ways to repurpose plastics and other materials into useful car components.

Efforts are underway globally to recycle more of the critical minerals that go into the EV supply chain, both to control costs and ensure environmental sustainability. Europe, for one, is setting minimum levels of recycled metals in new vehicles, just as the wave of first-generation EVs start to be decommissioned.

Hyperdrive spoke with Nandina Chief Executive Officer Karina Cady. Her answers have been edited for length and clarity.

What are you trying to do?
We’re in the business of providing sustainable materials to industrial supply chains. And we do this through the craziest way: taking apart old aircraft, with a key focus of getting it into EVs.
We started to look at where does high-value aluminum exist? There’s currently some 8,000-plus retired aircraft all over the world. You have the world’s most highly engineered materials. And the best solution is that they’re in a desert in Victorville, California.

What have you managed to do so far?
We completed our proof of concept on three Boeing 767s. Over 90% of those materials were reused or reprocessed. This year, we’re scaling to 40 aircraft. This needs to be able to hit volumes that can actually get sufficient offtake agreements. But the demand and the support is there and it’s been full-on chasing planes and ripping them apart.

When you break up the planes, what are you able to extract?
There’s aluminum, copper. Why is it so impactful from the EV perspective? A lot of the 7-series alloys are already an aluminum-lithium mix. So you don’t have to extrude it, get the aluminum out, and then combine it again later with the lithium. The automotive sector has a keen interest in keeping that alloy, that same formula all the way through.

Are there repurposed parts on cars on streets today?
One of the key things that we tried in the proof of concept was the bumper of a car. That was a pretty easy match, because the quality was so high: the plastics from aviation are really strong, so tray table to car bumper was an unexpected outcome from that.
Bits from the three 767s are in a car that exists, one that came off a line in October of last year. We can’t disclose the car that it was, because we’re still in commercial discussions with the company.

How long does it take to dismantle an aircraft?
The complete dismantlement can be done in 30 days. It takes about two months on top for the aluminum to become the EV battery casing.

Why are battery casings so important?
One of the reasons casings are such a key focus is because securing secondary materials at high quality is a key challenge for the EV market. If you look at all the aircraft that are going to be retired between now and 2030-2035, there’s over 50 million battery casings for EVs that could be made.
That saves about 12 bauxite mines — of about 1 million tons capacity each per year — from needing to be built. That’s a key part of why we have that core focus. To produce one ton of aluminum requires four to five tons of bauxite and about two to three tons of alumina.

What could you produce per plane you salvage, dismantle and repurpose?
If you take the 767, and if they’re all of a certain age, that ranges from about 80 tons to 110 tons. Depending on the size of the car, one casing is about 100 kilos to 200 kilos of aluminum. So it’s a substantial amount from just one plane. About 2,000 casings could come from that.

What is the inventory to fulfill your ambitions?
International Air Transport Association have it at about 11,000 planes to be retired by 2030. Airbus and Boeing have it at closer to 15,000. Some of that discrepancy is just based on assumptions of which might be converted to cargo planes or not.

How do new-generation carbon-fiber planes fit into the equation?
At the Singapore Airshow, we’ll be able to share a lot more about what we’ve done with carbon fiber. What’s really incredible is being able to keep our core premise of, how do you keep these incredible materials that are high value? The carbon fiber used in aerospace is at a quality that no other industry uses. But we do look at what additional applications are the closest. The closest are high performance cars, like Formula 1.

Malcolm · February 12

EVs Are Less Dependable Than ICE Cars, J.D. Power Says

Rankings for electric vehicles plummeted in J.D. Power's recent dependability study.

Long-term vehicle dependability has declined across the automotive industry, consumer insights and data analytics firm J.D. Power said in its recently released 2024 U.S. Vehicle Dependability Study. Particularly striking is electric cars ranking far below their gas-powered counterparts. Higher tire wear is a "sore spot" for EVs, and smartphone apps are troublesome, leading to a lower dependability score, J.D. Power said.

The study found that the owners of battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids experienced far more problems than gas cars. On average, ICE cars experienced 187 problems per 100 vehicles, PHEVs witnessed 216 problems, while BEVs fared far worse with a score of 256 problems per 100 vehicles over three years of ownership. Lexus and Toyota were the least troublesome—which is hardly a surprise—while Tesla fared rather poorly.

external_image© Provided by InsideEVs Global

To measure the dependability of a brand, J.D. Power analyzed nine major problems reported by owners, including driver assistance features, driving experience, exterior, infotainment, interior, powertrain, and seats among others.

It's worth noting that this data has some limitations. We only have information regarding tires and infotainment systems for this story. J.D. Power hasn't said much about the reliability of batteries, drivetrain, and range and performance in its report. So it's not an apples-to-apples comparison with gas cars. There are several variables outlined later in the story that should be considered before drawing any conclusions about EVs.

In a nutshell, it's best to approach this data with caution.

EV Tires Degrade Faster

Thirty-nine percent of BEV owners said they had to replace their tires at least once in the past 12 months, compared to just 20% of gas car owners admitting the same.

“That's something to be concerned about. [EV buyers] are going to save money at the gas pump, but the trade-off is that they would have to replace tires more often. So, it's a cost of ownership issue you need to think about,” Frank Hanley, the senior director of auto benchmarking at J.D. Power, told InsideEVs.

Researchers study how bidirectional EV charging could help power the grid

Several reasons can lead to higher tire degradation in EVs. For starters, EVs require less maintenance due to fewer components and less complex drivetrains. That impacts tires. By not taking your EV to service, you might not rotate the tires as frequently as you would in a gas car. That could especially be true if you’re unaware of the required tire maintenance intervals.

Routinely rotating your tires evens the spread of wear, and it maximizes tread life, Bridgestone and several other tire manufacturers have said.

EVs are also generally heavier than gas cars due to hefty batteries that demand higher tire weight ratings. The instant torque from the electric motors, a trademark feature of EVs that many enthusiasts love, also leads to more tire wear—e-motors deliver torque more precisely and quickly to individual wheels with micro-adjustments to optimize traction at all times.

There's no reason for the tire issue to ring any alarm bells because tire technology seems on track to develop over time. And you could minimize the wear by following simple textbook rules.

Flooring the throttle to devour the instant torque at every green light will likely cost you in the long run. But if you monitor tire pressure regularly, rotate tires according to the OEM's recommended schedule, and drive efficiently overall, you could prolong the life of the tires.

Buggy Smartphone Apps

The study also found that faulty smartphone apps lowered the dependability rankings for EVs. Hanley added that EV owners are a lot more smartphone-dependent than gas-car owners. “Smartphones for gas cars are like a nice-to-have, versus for EVs, they’re sort of a lifeline,” Hanley said.

EV owners tend to use smartphones to check battery status, adjust climate settings, and locate charging stations, among other functions. In theory, the apps are meant to give owners more control over their EV remotely and make tasks more convenient. But in the real world, they don't seem to be flawlessly integrated, at least not yet.

Without mentioning any carmaker or model, Hanley added that EV owners reported issues where apps didn’t connect to the car, weren’t updated with the correct information and even displayed wrong data. Across the industry, Android Auto, Apple CarPlay, and voice assistants caused the most trouble for vehicle owners.

CarPlay and Android Auto often suffer from bad connections, poor rendering, and slow responses, a General Motors spokesperson told MotorTrend in December 2023. These issues prompt owners to use their smartphones instead, thereby defeating the purpose of mirroring these apps and elevating safety risks.

That’s one of the reasons GM dropped CarPlay and Android Auto from its future cars, MotorTrend said. Instead, GM’s new “Ultifi” infotainment system will get a full suite of inbuilt Google apps.

Other factors causing a lower dependability score include outdated maps, improper installation of over-the-air updates, and poor wireless charging pads, J.D. Power told InsideEVs. Hanley agreed that software-defined vehicles are likely to continue having connectivity issues until the technology matures and is seamlessly integrated.

That's Not The Whole Story

This study hardly spells doom for EVs. EVs constituted only 2.5% of the sample size (approximately 750 cars). Furthermore, the majority of these EVs were MY2021 Teslas, making the data somewhat outdated.

A recent Consumer Reports reliability survey also concluded that EVs were worse off on the reliability index. But it added that EVs in their first model year faced more issues with motors, charging systems, and batteries. Tesla slotted in the middle of the pack, much higher than it did in the J.D. Power survey.

EVs generally tend to improve over time, and Tesla especially has a track record of bettering its cars over the years. The Model 3 is in its seventh year (the first year for the Highland facelift), while the Model Y is in its fourth year.

Yes, frequent tire replacements might indeed increase the cost of ownership. But even then, net savings will likely be positive. A CNBC estimate suggested that a Model Y owner could save over $11,000 over five years in maintenance and gas savings compared to an Audi Q5 owner.

A set of Goodyear Electric GT tires for the Model Y costs about $1200. Even if you replace them twice the number of times as a gas car, your net savings can still be higher. That's the worst-case scenario—one that you probably won't encounter if you take good care of the tires in the first place.

More EV News

Tesla-Rivaling 'Ionna' Charging Network From Seven Automakers Starts Taking Shape

All said, the study highlights the steep learning curve for EV owners, and how important education would be for wider adoption of EVs. Not only should you be aware of the best practices for charging and how to maximize range, but also of the less obvious stuff, such as conserving tire health over time.

Jaydee · February 13

Malcolm · February 13

Posthaste: If Canadians think car insurance is steep now, just wait until we're driving EVs

Higher purchase price and more costly repairs to drive up insurance premiums for EVs, says DBRS

Author of the article:

Pamela Heaven

Published Feb 13, 2024 • Last updated 1 hour ago • 5 minute read

Join the conversation As Canadians replace their gas and diesel vehicles with electric in coming years, they should expect to pay more for insurance, says a report by credit rating agency Morningstar DBRS.

Canadians already complain about the higher costs of electric vehicles, but just wait until they get the insurance bill.

By 2035 all vehicle sales in this country will be zero emission, according to a mandate from the federal government.

But as Canadians replace their gas and diesel vehicles with electric in coming years, they should expect to pay more for auto insurance, says a report by credit rating agency Morningstar DBRS.

EV uptake has been slower in Canada than in Europe, the United Kingdom and even the United States for reasons ranging from the higher cost of vehicles, “range anxiety” in Canadian winters and a lack of charging stations.

New vehicle registrations of EVs in 2022, including hybrids, accounted for just 2.7 per cent of the total in Canada, according to Statistics Canada — far lower than in Europe and the U.K., where rebates are more prevalent and infrastructure more advanced.

Judging by the experience of drivers across the pond, Canadians can expect higher insurance premiums as EV uptake increases, mainly because these vehicles are more expensive and cost more to repair. Average electric car insurance costs in the U.K. leapt 72 per cent last year, compared with 29 per cent for gas and diesel models, the Financial Times reports.

One carrier even suspended coverage for EVs in order to reassess the cost of repairs, it said.

While an electric car has fewer serviceable parts than an internal combustion engine, the cost of replacing batteries, the availability of parts and fewer technicians to fix them can drive up the bill for repairs and insurance, said DBRS.

Malcolm · February 14

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The Six Months That Short-Circuited the Electric-Vehicle Revolution

Story by Mike Colias • 9h

The Michigan plant where the F-150 Lightning electric truck is built used to vibrate with excitement.

President Biden visited in 2021 and test drove the blazing-fast pickup. Before the first ones even started rolling off the assembly line in the spring of 2022, Ford said it would expand the factory to quadruple the number it could build.

That energy is rapidly fading. Ford is cutting the plant’s output by half, and workers are relocating to other facilities, mostly those making gas-powered pickups and SUVs.

The sudden change “was a little bit of a shocker,” said Matthew Schulte, who inspects trucks at the factory in suburban Detroit. “Reality has set in.”

As recently as a year ago, automakers were struggling to meet the hot demand for electric vehicles. In a span of months, though, the dynamic flipped, leaving them hitting the brakes on what for many had been an all-out push toward an electric transformation.

A confluence of factors had led many auto executives to see the potential for a dramatic societal shift to electric cars: government regulations, corporate climate goals, the rise of Chinese EV makers, and Tesla’s stock valuation, which, at roughly $600 billion, still towers over the legacy car companies.

Will EVs kill the power grid? | EV Basics

But the push overlooked an important constituency: the consumer.

Last summer, dealers began warning of unsold electric vehicles clogging their lots. Ford, General Motors, Volkswagen and others shifted from frenetic spending on EVs to delaying or downsizing some projects. Dealers who had been begging automakers to ship more EVs faster are now turning them down.

Even Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk warned of “notably lower” growth in vehicle deliveries for the company in 2024.

“This has been a seismic change in the last six months of last year that will rapidly sort out winners and losers in our industry,” said Ford Chief Executive Jim Farley on an earnings call in early February.

EV sales continue to grow, and auto executives say they remain committed to the technology. But many are recalibrating their plans.

Ford has pulled back on EV investment and could delay some vehicle launches, while increasing production of hybrids, which run on both gasoline and electricity. It lost a staggering $4.7 billion last year on its battery-powered car business and projects an even bigger loss this year, in the range of $5 billion to $5.5 billion.

Some auto executives acknowledge they got ahead of the market with overzealous demand projections. Pandemic-era supply-chain shocks and a resulting car shortage created long waiting lists and early buzz for EVs, making the industry overly optimistic.

Only later, as a barrage of new EVs hit the market, did executives realize that car buyers were more discerning than they expected. Many were hesitant to pay a premium for a vehicle that came with compromises.

Farley and other industry CEOs are still confident that EVs will eventually take off, albeit at a slower pace than initially envisioned. But for now, the massive miscalculation has left the industry in a bind, facing a potential glut of EVs and half-empty factories while still having to meet stricter environmental regulations globally.

“Ultimately, we will follow the customer,” GM Chief Executive Mary Barra told analysts this month.

In 2020, as the car market unexpectedly heated up during pandemic lockdowns, traditional automakers shifted from dabbling in electric cars to launching an all-out blitz. They outlined plans to build dozens of battery factories, EV assembly plants and vehicle models, pledging more than a half-trillion dollars of investment in the technology through 2026, according to consulting firm AlixPartners.

The rapid rise of Elon Musk’s Tesla added to the urgency. Over just a few years, its market value rocketed past those of legacy car companies. Wall Street cheered strategic moves toward electrics and bid up shares of EV startups.

Tougher auto-emissions restrictions in Europe and China gave car companies little choice but to add more EVs or risk penalties. The Biden administration steered the industry toward more environmentally friendly cars, earmarking hundreds of billions in subsidies for battery production, consumer tax breaks and EV chargers.

At the start of 2023, car executives were expecting to cash in on their EV bets.

GM’s Barra had been among the earliest and most vocal industry advocates of shifting to EVs. The Detroit automaker set a goal of phasing out nearly all gas-engine vehicles by 2035.

“This is a breakout year,” Barra said on GM’s January 2023 earnings call. GM was finally making its own batteries and said it was ready to start cranking out EVs to satisfy pent-up demand for a new electric Cadillac SUV and Hummer pickup truck.

Ford, emboldened by swelling orders for the F-150 Lightning, increased prices for the pickups by as much as $20,000 over the original sticker. Elsewhere, car executives were talking up their plans to accelerate EV factory work.

Trouble ahead

Then warning signs began to appear. In mid-January of last year, Tesla slashed prices on some models by more than 20%, triggering a chain reaction.

Used-car dealers who had Tesla Model 3s and Model Ys in stock saw their values plummet by thousands of dollars. Customers who had bought Teslas at higher prices were furious.

“Why cut EV prices when demand is greater than supply?” Bank of America analyst John Murphy wondered.

Musk insisted that there was no demand problem. The company was trying to broaden appeal by making its cars more affordable, he told analysts.

Inside Ford, staffers analyzed what Tesla’s cuts might mean for its own EV sales. About two weeks later, Ford reduced prices on some versions of its Mustang Mach-E SUVs by nearly 9%.

Speaking to analysts in May, Farley largely shrugged off the pricing pressures, saying they weren’t reflective of broader interest in EVs. He remained upbeat about Ford’s outlook, reiterating plans to expand Lightning output.

Around that time, car dealer Mickey Anderson began noticing that EVs were accumulating on his lots in Kansas, Nebraska and Colorado.

At first, Anderson and other retailers thought the slower sales were a fluke. At meetings with manufacturers in the late spring and summer, the dealers compared notes.

“We were worried,” Anderson recalled. “We went from wait lists to six months of supply, seemingly in a matter of weeks.”

As car companies entered the summer-selling season, there were other worrying signs. U.S. EV sales for the first half of 2023 rose 50% from a year earlier, down from a 71% increase in the first half of 2022.

The wave of early EV adopters willing to splurge had receded, and the next round of potential customers was proving more hesitant. They had more questions about how far a car could go on a single charge, and the life expectancy of batteries. They worried about charging times, repair costs, and not having enough places to plug in, according to dealers and surveys.

Interest rates were rising, pushing up monthly payments on EVs, which already were selling, on average, for about $14,000 more per vehicle than gas-engine models, according to research firm J.D. Power.

Lyndsey Grover, a Dallas-based pediatric anesthesiologist, said her husband was pushing her last year to replace her hybrid Volvo with an all-electric version, for environmental reasons.

She looked at a Rivian SUV, Tesla Model Y and an electric Mercedes, but ended up with another Volvo—a plug-in hybrid that could travel some distance on battery power before switching to traditional hybrid mode.

Her husband already had a Tesla Model S. She said it often requires a full night of charging at home, and even then, its range on a single charge often fell below estimates displayed by the vehicle. She felt the family needed at least one gas-powered vehicle.

GM was having trouble processing battery cells, a bottleneck that was preventing it from getting EVs to showrooms. Manufacturing delays left buyers waiting for delivery of models such as the Cadillac SUV and Hummer pickup truck.

Late last July, GM’s Barra told analysts plenty of consumers still wanted the company’s EVs. “These vehicles are getting to the dealers’ lots, and if they’re not already sold, they’ve got a list of people who are waiting for them,” she said.

Two days later, Ford’s Farley struck a different tone. “The paradigm has shifted,” he told analysts. Although consumers were still buying EVs, Ford’s pricing power was deteriorating compared with gas-engine models, he said, and the market for EVs would remain volatile.

Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois asked Farley what had changed. “A few weeks ago when we saw you in Detroit…it’s like you had religion” on EVs, he told the CEO.

Farley replied that Ford was responding to market realities.

A Ford spokesman said that producing significant numbers of electric pickups before its rivals enabled the company to become an EV truck leader and to attract customers from other brands. Learning about the habits of EV buyers, he said, would benefit future vehicle development.

Late last summer, Ford dealer Ed Jolliffe saw on his store’s computer system that the factory planned to ship him about a dozen Lightnings. That worried him.

Earlier, his Detroit-area dealership had been receiving one or two Lightnings at a time, and his salespeople had had no trouble finding buyers. More recently, prospective customers seemed more hung up on the monthly payment of nearly $1,000.

Jolliffe had spent a half-million dollars installing EV fast chargers. He was getting ready to rent a billboard along the nearby interstate declaring: “Fastest Chargers Downriver!”

“We were all-in,” he said. So he swallowed hard and agreed to take the trucks.

Changing plans

The unraveling came swiftly. In a single month last fall, the average interest rate on an electric-car purchase jumped from 4.9% to 7%, making monthly payments even less affordable for some shoppers, said Tyson Jominy, vice president of data and analytics for J.D. Power.

Suddenly, once-long waiting lists for EVs shrank and buyers dropped reservations.

Over a 10-day span in October, the tone of automakers in Detroit and beyond turned gloomier. GM said it would delay by one year a $4 billion overhaul of a suburban Detroit factory to build new electric pickup trucks, citing “evolving EV demand.”

The next day, Elon Musk said that not as many people could afford a Tesla given higher interest rates and tougher economic conditions. Affordability was keeping a lid on demand, he said during a call to discuss third-quarter results.

A week later, on GM’s quarterly call, Barra described the transition to EVs as “bumpy,” and said the company wouldn’t meet a self-imposed goal of producing 400,000 EVs over a two-year period through mid-2024.

Two days later, Ford said it would defer $12 billion in electric-vehicle investments and focus on increasing hybrid production, citing the need to better match demand.

By late last year, it was becoming clear that sales of hybrids—once dismissed by some automakers as an unnecessary half-measure—were taking off and would outsell EVs in 2023.

“People are finally seeing reality,” said Toyota Motor Chairman Akio Toyoda. For years, Toyota and other EV-cautious carmakers had been touting hybrids as a consumer-friendly way to reduce carbon emissions.The Six Months That Short-Circuited the Electric-Vehicle Revolution© Provided by The Wall Street Journal

In November, thousands of U.S. dealers signed a letter urging Biden to ease proposed regulations that would push the industry to sell more battery-powered cars. “Last year, there was a lot of hope and hype about EVs,” the dealers wrote. “But that enthusiasm has stalled.”

Some auto retailers say that they are now selling EVs at a loss to clear unwanted inventory.

Jolliffe, whose car dealership is a 25-minute drive from the Lightning plant, is struggling to understand what happened. On a recent weekday, he peeked out his window at eight Lightnings and four Mach-Es.

“Nobody’s opening the door” to check them out, he said. “There just seems to be this hesitancy that is hitting hard.”

Write to Nora Eckert at nora.eckert@wsj.com, Mike Colias at mike.colias@wsj.com and Sean McLain at sean.mclain@wsj.com

Malcolm · February 14

Canadian POV from Global News kamyar-razavi-photo.png?w=136&h=136&crop

By Kamyar Razavi Global News

Published February 14, 2024

8 min read

Click to play video: 'What you need to know about electric vehicles in Canada'

Range anxiety. Battery replacement costs. Grid collapse. These are some of the major questions that Canadians have about electric vehicles. EVs, experts say, are not a quick fix for the planet’s climate woes. But, as Kamyar Razavi reports, issues around batteries and electricity supply will evolve and improve over time, and EVs will be a key part of the transition to a cleaner future.

From dinner table discussions to radio call-in shows, electric vehicles are a hot topic of conversation in Canada.

Will Canada be able to meet the 2035 mandate imposed by the Liberal government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for all new car sales to be electric? Will all those Teslas, Chevy Bolts, and Hyundai Ioniqs overwhelm and break the grid, as many fear? And what then of the batteries? Is disposing of them after their useful life is over going to create a landfill nightmare scenario?

We look at some of the top questions Canadians have about EVs, and provide some responses.

Will electric vehicles collapse the power grid?

This is a big watercooler conversation in Canada. The concern is that all those EVs coming online in the next decade or so will be too much for provincial power grids to bear. Though not directly related to the preponderance of EVs, grid instability is, after all, what happened this past winter in Alberta during a cold snap, when residents received alerts warning them to reduce electricity consumption or face rolling outages.

Experts say it’s important to understand that it’s not as though all the cars on the road are going to become electric tomorrow. It’s a process that’s going to take place over 10, 20, even 30 years as internal combustion vehicles reach their natural end cycle and get taken off the road. This amounts to an extra burden on the grid of one or two percentage points of additional usage per year, according to University of Toronto engineering professor Daniel Posen. Another way to look at it, he says, is that’s about a 15 to 40 per cent increase from now until 2050 — all within the realm of manageability.

“This is not like it’s going to creep up on us by surprise,” Posen says.

But it also doesn’t mean that provinces and municipalities don’t have to plan for more power use, as drivers wean off the gas station and start charging their vehicles, he adds. “We have to plan.”

More power generating capacity as well as more transmission and distribution lines will become the norm, and over time, it will happen.

“It’s a challenge we can overcome. This is not the first time that we’ve had a change in our energy demand profiles.”

Range anxiety is still a thing

There are about 25,000 charging stations installed all over the country, in cities big and small, and everything in between. You can see a map of them on Natural Resources Canada’s site, as well as on the Plugshare app.

Increasingly, small businesses are helping fill the gaps in the public charging network.

Kendra Imrie owns a guest ranch in Falcon Beach, Manitoba, about 140 kilometres east of Winnipeg, along the Trans Canada Highway. Her property is located in Whiteshell Provincial Park, which does not have any public charging stations in it.

So, two years ago, when a representative from Tesla cold called her one day and asked if she’d be open to installing an EV charging station at the ranch, she immediately accepted.

“It’s an extra perk for our customers, our guests,” she says, adding that the stations are available to drivers who are passing by on the nearby highway.

Though having a charging station can be a boon to business, whether you’re a motel, a brewery or a guest ranch, most EV charging happens at home, and home-charging is the backbone of the EV industry.

Not everyone lives in a single family home, of course, and that’s where municipal policies to encourage, or mandate, condo-garage parking come in.

British Columbia, says Maxime Charron, the CEO of charging startup LeadingAhead Energy, was a leader in this respect. It introduced a law last year, Bill 22, to make it easier for strata corporations to put in EV charging in condo parking lots. That’s a game-changer because it’ll make it much less daunting for apartment dwellers to make the leap to purchasing an EV.

Where’s that power going to come from, and will it create pollution?

Emissions from electricity production would be a bigger problem if Canadian provinces depended entirely or mostly on fossil fuels — coal and fossil gas — to produce electricity. In Canada, however, the majority, though not all, of electricity is produced from renewable sources: 60 per cent comes from hydroelectric sources. Nuclear is not an insignificant portion of electricity production.

Most of the electricity produced in Canada comes from non-polluting sources, though not all of it. Alberta had set a 2030 deadline to wean itself off coal-powered electricity; it is well ahead of that schedule, and has almost kicked coal to the curb. Ontario has done the same. Global News / Canada Energy Regulator

In provinces like Quebec, Manitoba and British Columbia, hydro power dominates.

Even Alberta, home to most of Canada’s oil sands production, a major source of pollution in the country, is very close to kicking coal to the curb. Ontario, for its part, is investing in nuclear energy, and has also eliminated its dependence on coal.

Still, converting every vehicle on the road to an EV will not meet Canada’s carbon-reduction mitigation goals. Why?

Oil and gas production, agriculture, buildings, airplanes, even electricity, these are all sources of carbon pollution that need to be “decarbonized” over time. But there’s no denying that decarbonizing automobile transportation is a big step in the right direction in terms of reducing emissions. It is the second biggest source of planet-heating greenhouse gas emissions in Canada.

How will we hit the 2035 mandate for an all-electric fleet?

Much has been made of the ambitious nature of the 2035 mandate for all new vehicles in Canada to be electric.

Flavio Volpe, president of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers’ Association, says he doubts it’s going to happen. “I’m in the business, and I’m not shy about saying that we’ll get to 35 or 40 per cent [by 2035],” Volpe told CKNW radio host Mike Smythe.

“First of all, I don’t think we’re going to get the infrastructure in place to charge these vehicles,” which, he says, continue to be too prohibitively expensive for the average customer.

One thing that everyone agrees on is that it isn’t going to happen overnight, and won’t happen without major effort on the policy and regulation front.

“There are real challenges to electrification including affordability and charging infrastructure,” argues Brian Kingston, the president and chief executive of the Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers’ Association.

But EV watchers say that while the 2035 target is ambitious, it is not impossible. Quebec and B.C. are proven case studies for that.

In the third quarter of 2023, according to Statistics Canada, 33 per cent of new car registrations in British Columbia were either battery-electric, hybrid-electric or plug-in hybrid vehicles. In Quebec, 27 per cent of new car sales last quarter were electric.

Quebec and British Columbia lead the country in terms of the most rapid expansion of battery electric vehicle sales. This chart shows the number over battery electric (BEV) registrations. It does not include plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (which are also considered zero-emissions, because they have the potential to produce no tailpipe emissions) nor hybrid electric vehicles. Global News / Statistics Canada

“So, to say that we won’t be able to reach those targets doesn’t take into consideration the simple fact that car manufacturers — most of them — will always comply but will always complain,” says Daniel Breton, the president and CEO of Electric Mobility Canada, an EV advocacy group.

Norway is the poster child for how to get more EVs on the road. Over 80 per cent of new-car sales there are electric.

How did Norway do it? The Scandinavian nation not only incentivized customers to purchase EVs, it also took the bold step of disincentivizing the purchase of gas-powered cars. Nobody likes to pay more taxes, but Norway made it clear — if the car you drive pollutes the air, you need to pay for that.

The battery replacement cost versus the price of a new EV

There were at least two high-profile examples over the last year of EV drivers whose battery replacement costs were more than the cost of the actual vehicle — one horror story in B.C., the other in Ontario.

In terms of battery repair and replacement, the challenge, says Mubasher Faruki, the associate dean for the automotive division at the British Columbia Institute of Technology, comes down to training and experience. Many dealers and auto shops, he says, still need to up their game when it comes to repairing battery vehicles.

When a vehicle comes in with a defective battery, he wonders how familiar technicians are with that battery. Do they know how to open the battery, look at its components, and see whether they can be repaired? In other words, if you take your EV to the shop with a defective battery, are the technicians opening up the compartment to look at the battery before deciding it’s a writeoff?

These, Faruki says, are unanswered questions that over time, and with more training (and more EVs on the road) will become easier to answer — and less expensive.

That education, he says, is happening with more vigour. “One of the things that we’re doing in our course is we’re teaching technicians to take a deeper dive into these things,” he says.

He says all over the world, battery engineers and technicians are working on ways to improve range, “repairability” and the recycling capacity of batteries. It’s not inconceivable, he says, to have a battery that can go 1,000 kilometres on a single charge, and get recharged in 30 minutes.

Meanwhile, next-generation batteries are increasingly using materials that do not require cobalt, and the child-labour associated with cobalt extraction that has widely been reported on.

EVs are not the only solution

EVs are not the only solution to the world’s environmental and climate challenges.

They are still cars, and, as such, they take energy to manufacture and operate. Even though research shows that EVs outperform gas cars in terms of reducing planet-warming within a few short years of hitting the road (especially in places where electricity is not cleanly produced), the EV experience is still an energy-intensive one.

The key to reducing emissions, and creating a more livable environment, experts say, isn’t just to put more EVs on the road. Rather, better urban planning to develop medium-to-high density, walkable, transit-oriented communities will be critical.

Still, says Joanna Kyriazis of Clean Energy Canada, “many Canadians are still very reliant on their cars, especially as housing prices are skyrocketing and people are needing to move further and further away from where they work.”

This means, more communities will have to introduce “right-to-charge” policies whereby upgrading facilities in condo buildings will become a right and not a privilege.

But, “there’s no question,” says U of T engineer Daniel Posen, “that driving less, switching from a gas car to either active transit and biking, walking or to public transit — those things are going to have a bigger impact than switching to an electric vehicle.”

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Electric vehicles

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