dagger Posted August 5, 2003 Share Posted August 5, 2003 This contract has to be interpreted as a statement, certainly about ACTC but about how David Neeleman views AC's future post-CCAA. I guess all of Milton's schmoozing with Neeleman paid off. Maybe that's why he didn't have more time to schmooze with Mitch http://www.newswire.ca/releases/August2003/05/c7935.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitch Cronin Posted August 5, 2003 Share Posted August 5, 2003 Dagger... Please... I'm not at all sure how I got under your skin, but this really is getting tiresome. Have you read anything I've said? The last time I took your bait, and swallowed the hook, you didn't even have the courtesy to make sure your buddy hung around long enough to read my reply to him. I'm done, no more worms hangin' on hooks for me. I'll go for the beef only from now on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
conehead Posted August 5, 2003 Share Posted August 5, 2003 He did put a "smiley thing" in. It made me smile! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest AME Posted August 5, 2003 Share Posted August 5, 2003 I believe that they also signed a test contract for 3 or 4 A320 heavy checks with an American carrier, If all goes well for these it could be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Hudson Posted August 5, 2003 Share Posted August 5, 2003 Dagger; This kind of agreement follows on a long history of Air Canada's technical expertise. For years, AC Maintenance did Eastern's, Northwest Orient's and others' DC9 major overhauls at the Dorval Base. AC has taken many Technical Excellence awards over the years. Those who bought our 727's (Kelowna Flightcraft?) and Lockheed 1011's (Delta) claimed they were in the best shape they'd ever seen these aircraft. Its great to see the tradition continuing. I think schmoozing, as you say, perhaps had little to do with this, for this kind of work isn't handed over to those who buy the finest lunches at Winston's. AC's reputation and history very likely had much more to do with this decision. Regardless, at this stage of our recovery, its good news for everyone associated. Don Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest buswrench Posted August 5, 2003 Share Posted August 5, 2003 not that it matters Don,but AC's 727's went to FedEx in the states,save a few.KFC didn't get any that I'm aware of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Hudson Posted August 5, 2003 Share Posted August 5, 2003 Oh, okay, thanks...I do recall that now. Cheers, Don Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest YWG Flyer Posted August 5, 2003 Share Posted August 5, 2003 Maybe UAL? I heard United wanted to do more outsourcing of mx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest AME Posted August 5, 2003 Share Posted August 5, 2003 at least not yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dagger Posted August 5, 2003 Author Share Posted August 5, 2003 I'm sure reputation and price meant a lot, but don't totally dismiss the notion that Milton and Neeleman have become buddies. It bugs the hell out of some WJ head office types. It's like Neeleman went over to the dark side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Hudson Posted August 5, 2003 Share Posted August 5, 2003 On Neeleman...well, as the popular phrase goes, that's a good thing. Our whole focus should be to keep Clive Beddoes awake at night and in the daytime calling up the government and media with ever-new complaints about competition. Dagger, would you hazard a guess as to where our shareprice and profit margin could be in say, two years, (end of '06)? I get the distinct sense that the numbers will be nothing short of spectacular (for an airline in Canada, anyway) and that seems to be what investors are seeing as well. Is there an embarrassment of riches around the corner?...perhaps sooner rather than later? Cheers, Don Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dagger Posted August 5, 2003 Author Share Posted August 5, 2003 On share price, it will depend on how many shares are issued. I don't think you can assume that it will be a 140 million share float as you have today. It could be 50 million or 500 million shares. All I can say is that three years from now when all savings from all the new labor, supplier and lessor deals are in full force and effect, and assuming a strong economy where international travel is flourishing, AC could make anywhere from $500 million to $1 billion a year pre-tax, assuming its Aeroplan revenue stream doesn't narrow because of a cash-raising stock sell off. Don, I believe you sometimes fly the North Pacific so you will get a pretty good idea of how things are going before the rest of us. When the Executive Class section coming out of Tokyo is full of Japanese men in suits, that is the time to buy New Air Canada shares. The Pacific alone has the potential to be a $500-$750 loss-to-profit million turnaround. In a good year, the Japan routes alone can make a $200 million profit - they always could for CP Air and CAI. That was before Osaka. China has similar potential, especially Shanghai. Australia can be readily profitable. On the Nortth Atlantic, I believe Germany is profitable year round even now, even with SARS, because of the FRA code-sharing in particular. Not sure about the UK, but in any kind of decent market, it should be. Domestically, it will be challenging to make major money, but the system can be reasonably profitable in a good market where the fare-depressing tendencies seen this year are reversed. The US is hard to say. The Americans seem to be in a world of their own. They keep closing down avenues of inbound international travel. The US travel economy is feeling the loss of overseas students, shoppers and people coming to top private clinics for surgery. The new ban on intl transits in the US for many nationalities could actually help AC. But the high tech boom was what really fueled the growth of transborder traffic, and right now, there ain't no boom, not even a hint of a hot streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dagger Posted August 5, 2003 Author Share Posted August 5, 2003 There's an enormous market out there if they can get a contract to do FedEx or UPS freighters. There have been rumors about AC pursuing a freighter operator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Hudson Posted August 5, 2003 Share Posted August 5, 2003 I just completed some S.Pacific cycles and saw oversold flights to HNL and 80%LF's to/from SYD, all high-quality yield in business. HKG is going twice daily as you know, at sched change. The Pacific loads are high. The 71000/day system loads are a far cry from the post-April 1 loads which hovered around 39-41k/day. Agree on the US, which seems as isolationist and protectionist as ever. On profits, I had sensed that we are poised for something big once the pent-up demand truly takes off and you've put some flesh on that impression. My sense of the stock price, regardless of issue, was that it would reflect the success of the coming company performance. Its early of course, but its gratifying to at least see our collective contributions (employees/creditors etc) provide cause for optimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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