Electric vehicles

[Jaydee]

[Malcolm]

For those who want a boat to match their electric car.

Best electric boats: A-Z of the top all-electric models (mby.com)

[Malcolm]

Wise move in the UK

 

Since 2021, new electric vehicles in the UK are required to generate sound to reduce any risk posed to pedestrians

 

Up to three times more likely to be hit by e-car than petrol or diesel

• Even in the countryside the risk was found to be twice as great 

Pedestrians in urban areas face a three-fold higher risk of being hit by an electric car than a petrol or diesel model, a study has found.

Higher levels of background noise means those living in cities and towns are at greater risk of accidents involving electric cars, which tend to be quieter than traditional vehicles.

But, even in the countryside, the risk is twice as great with the eco-friendly transport when compared to other cars.

Researchers compared the differences in pedestrian casualty rates for every 100million miles of road travel in the UK between electric or hybrid and cars using fossil fuel, using Road Safety Data between 2013-17.

There were 916,713 casualties from reported traffic collisions and 120,197 involved pedestrians. The London School of Tropical Medicine reports the average annual casualty rates of pedestrians per 100 million miles of road travel were

 

Pedestrians in urban areas face a three-fold higher risk of being hit by an electric car than a petrol or diesel model, a study has found (Stock Photo)© Provided by Daily Mail

The London School of Tropical Medicine reports the average annual casualty rates of pedestrians per 100 million miles of road travel were 5.16 for electric and hybrid vehicles and 2.40 for petrol and diesel vehicles (Stock Photo)© Provided by Daily Mail

Collisions with pedestrians were, on average, twice as likely with electric and hybrid cars than petrol and diesel vehicles, and three times as likely in urban areas, say researchers.

 

[Malcolm]

Interesting.  I wonder how this will impact the introduction of Electric Cars

Average US vehicle age hits record 12.6 years as high prices force people to keep them longer (msn.com)

[deicer]

The pandemic and supply chain issues was a kick in the teeth for consumers, however, manufacturing has returned to normal levels and inventories are at record levels.

It won't be long before the prices start to come down to move those units.

That will also help with inflation numbers.

https://www.biv.com/news/economy-law-politics/new-vehicle-inventories-in-canada-at-record-high-autotrader-8441291

[Malcolm]

• re 

RCMP warns push to switch to electric vehicles faces 'significant challenges' | CBC News Loaded

Politics

RCMP warns push to switch to electric vehicles faces 'significant challenges'

Range is one problem — another is the kind of work police vehicles perform

Catharine Tunney · CBC News · Posted: May 23, 2024 2:00 AM MDT | Last Updated: 2 hours ago

The RCMP's Rideau Hall Response Unit is testing a Tesla Model Y to see how electric vehicles will work in the national fleet. (Mathieu Theriault/CBC)

 

Can the RCMP turn North America's largest law enforcement vehicle fleet green? They're about to find out.

As Canada's national police service, the RCMP falls under Ottawa's Greening Government Strategy — a commitment to lower the environmental footprint of the federal government and get it to net‑zero emissions by 2050.

The strategy calls on the RCMP to replace as many of their approximately 12,000 cars and trucks with zero-emission vehicles as operationally possible by 2035.

But those tasked with meeting that goal are predicting speed bumps along the way.

"We do fully anticipate that there are significant challenges with electric vehicle range for a lot of our units," said Sgt. Shaun Vickery, who works in the RCMP's national traffic programs and operational technologies unit.

"We don't want to put them into a situation where they will fail and put a member at risk or the public at risk because a piece of equipment didn't do what it was supposed to do."

WATCH | RCMP testing different EVs before it goes fully electric by 2035 

 

RCMP testing different EVs before it goes fully electric by 2035

 

12 hours ago

Duration2:03

The RCMP is trying out different types of electric vehicles to figure out how it can convert its fleet — the largest of any police force in North America — to fully electric by 2035.

The RCMP is starting small by field-testing two Teslas. One is based with the traffic unit in British Columbia's West Shore detachment and the other helps patrol the grounds of Rideau Hall in Ottawa.

Neither car has to roam too far from a charging station, but range is a major concern for Vickery as the program expands.

As the boots-on-the-ground police in eight provinces, all three territories and 150 municipalities, the RCMP covers vast portions of the country — including many remote and rural areas with limited charging infrastructure and strained power grids.

All electric vehicles the RCMP tests going forward will display this decal. (Mathieu Theriault/CBC)

"I think it poses significant challenges to our organization in terms of operations and being able to respond," said Vickery.

"I do think that there are a lot of locations where we can fit these vehicles into operations and they will do quite well. However, when you head out into the Prairies and ... the northern part of Canada ... we cover a lot of ground and our detachment area is quite large."

The early field testing is also assessing how electric vehicles can handle a police officer behind the wheel.

"Responding to a call may require driving at a higher speed, which is going to consume more battery and decrease your range," said Vickery.

Sgt. Shaun Vickery stands in front of one of the RCMP's Teslas. (Mathieu Theriault/CBC)

And while the two Teslas — with their panoramic glass sunroofs — are popular with some of the Mounties testing them out, Vickery said they likely won't be used in general duty.

"It's probably not [for] widespread [general duty] usage where we're going to be putting prisoners and such in the back because the glass roof and stuff like that does pose a bit of a challenge," he said.

Too early to talk gas savings

Outfitting the vehicles with policing equipment has also turned out to be a challenge.

Andres Casimiri, manager of the Mounties' national fleet program, said the force basically had to gut the inside of the Teslas to make them into usable police cars.

Andres Casimiri, manager of the RCMP's national fleet program, says rolling out EVs will be 'quite a challenge.' (Mathieu Theriault/CBC)

"When we're talking about policing, that's a whole other scope of work. It's not just taking a retail [car] and putting it all on the road," he said. 

"You basically have to tear the interior of the car apart so that you can run the wiring. You're talking the lights, siren, light controller, the light bar, the radio."

Casimiri said it's still too early in the EV field testing phase to get a sense of how much the RCMP could save on gas. He said they'll have more data as the field testing ramps up.

Casimiri said he hopes to start testing over the next year dozens of Ford F150 Lightnings and Chevrolet Blazers, a purpose-built EV police vehicle.

• Canada Post's first all-electric delivery fleet rolls out on Vancouver Island

• Trudeau unveils new net-zero emissions plan to meet climate change targets

"It depends how the industry reacts, depends on how well the vehicles perform," Casimiri said.

"With the RCMP, we want to see what's in the realm of possible and we want to be ahead of the curve, knowing that this is likely going to be ... more prevalent as the years go on."

But both Casimiri and Vickery said a completely electric fleet, covering northern and remote areas, is still a distant goal — and protecting officers and the public remains the paramount concern.

"Obviously we can't at this time, given what technology is ... replace all of our vehicles with EVs. They just don't have the ability to do what we do," Vickery said.

"But I think that we're trying hard to figure out where they fit in the fleet and fit them in accordingly."  

A spokesperson for the Treasury Board of Canada, which is implementing the government's greening strategy, said the department will work with the RCMP "where necessary" if an all-electric fleet is not feasible.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

[Malcolm]

EV Fee© InsideEVs

The number of states charging EV registration fees is on the rise.

Electric vehicles offer many benefits over comparable gas models, but they can be costly to the communities where their owners live. EV owners don’t need gas, which means less tax revenue, and that’s before we get into incentives and other offers. Some states have proposed EV use taxes to make up for the loss in revenue, but the numbers are different everywhere, and only some of the states considering a tax have actually implemented the rules.

 

There are currently several states that charge additional registration fees for electric vehicles, with some of them also offering an incentive for their purchase. While the money likely enters and leaves different “pots” in those states’ budgets, it’s an interesting contrast to find. According to taxfoundation.org, the states charging additional EV registration fees or taxes in 2023 included:

• Alabama: $200
• Arkansas: $200
• California: $108
• Colorado: $51.88
• Georgia: $213.70
• Hawaii: $50
• Idaho: $140
• Illinois: $100
• Indiana: $150
• Iowa: $130
• Kansas: Up to $70
• Kentucky: $120
• Louisiana: $100
• Michigan: $145
• Minnesota: $75
• Mississippi: $150
• Missouri: $105
• Nebraska: $75
• North Carolina: $140.25
• North Dakota: $120
• Ohio: $200
• Oklahoma: $110
• Oregon: Up to $91
• South Carolina: $60
• South Dakota: $50
• Tennessee: $100
• Utah: $130.25
• Virginia: $120
• Washington: $150
• West Virginia: $200
• Wisconsin: $100
• Wyoming: $200

[Jaydee]

[deicer]

Just speaking for Ontario, if the conservative government didn't cancel all the renewable projects (at great cost) we wouldn't be having this issue.

Instead, they are years behind and struggling to add capacity (at even greater cost)!  

It's great being a taxpayer under a conservative government

 

[Seeker]

28 minutes ago, deicer said:

Just speaking for Ontario, if the conservative government didn't cancel all the renewable projects (at great cost) we wouldn't be having this issue.

Instead, they are years behind and struggling to add capacity (at even greater cost)!  

It's great being a taxpayer under a conservative government

 

Yeah, might be a little more complicated than that:

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/ontario-liberals-cancel-plans-to-sign-more-green-energy-contracts-to-save-province-up-to-3-8-billion

[Malcolm]

31 minutes ago, deicer said:

Just speaking for Ontario, if the conservative government didn't cancel all the renewable projects (at great cost) we wouldn't be having this issue.

Instead, they are years behind and struggling to add capacity (at even greater cost)!  

It's great being a taxpayer under a conservative government

 

TORONTO — Ontario’s Liberal government took steps Tuesday to take some pressure off of rising electricity rates, cancelling plans to sign contracts for up to 1,000 megawatts of power from solar, wind and other renewable energy sources.

Energy Minister Glenn Thibeault said the move will save up to $3.8 billion of the costs projected in the 2013 long-term energy plan, and will keep about $2.45 a month from being added to hydro bills for homeowners and small businesses.

[deicer]

24 minutes ago, Seeker said:

Yeah, might be a little more complicated than that:

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/ontario-liberals-cancel-plans-to-sign-more-green-energy-contracts-to-save-province-up-to-3-8-billion

So two wrongs make a right?

Back in 2013 the demand for electricity and the increase in electrical vehicles wasn't what it is like today. Back then, there was actually a decrease in demand for electricity because of the efficiency gains in new technology.

https://www.ieso.ca/en/Power-Data/Demand-Overview/Historical-Demand

https://news.ontario.ca/en/release/3250/ontario-to-make-buildings-more-energy-efficient

• Ontario has one of the most aggressive targets in North America to reduce peak electricity demand - Between 2004 and 2007, Ontario reduced its peak electricity demand by five per cent, or 1,350 megawatts.

 

Ford's conservative government knew that they would be needing vastly more amounts of electricity yet they have done nothing over the last 6 years to improve the system.

https://news.ontario.ca/en/release/1003253/province-launches-plan-to-power-ontarios-growth#quickfacts

• Powering Ontario’s Growth is the government’s official response to the Independent Electricity System Operator’s Pathways to Decarbonization report published in December 2022, which forecasted future energy demands as a result of electrification and economic growth.
• The IESO Pathways to Decarbonization report forecasts in one scenario that electricity demand could double by 2050, increasing from 42,000 MW today to 88,000 MW.

https://www.ieso.ca/en/Powering-Tomorrow/2021/The-Future-of-Electricity-Demand-in-Ontario

With the pandemic recovery well underway, IESO forecasts show a steady average growth in electricity demand of about 1.7 per cent a year. This trend toward increasing demand is driven by a number of factors – all reflecting positive progress in economic growth and decarbonization.

For example, continuing and robust growth in the greenhouse sector is driving jobs and economic opportunities – particularly in Southwestern Ontario. Innovation in the mining and steel industries is also contributing to a rise in industrial electricity demand, while population growth coupled with more people working from home will lead to an uptick in residential energy use around the province.

First and foremost, energy efficiency is proven to have an immediate and lasting impact by lowering electricity demand. The IESO’s Save on Energy programs provide a range of incentives to businesses and residents to help manage energy use and reduce bills. Since 2006, Save on Energy has reduced energy use equivalent to taking 1.7 million homes off the grid for a year.

The impact of electric vehicles on the grid is expected to be felt particularly strongly from 2030 onward as the effects of federal electrification policies kick in. Decarbonization is also being seen in other sectors – such as steel – where energy-intensive blast furnaces are switching from coal to electricity. New government policy, changing consumer preferences and large-scale industrial projects, could drive these projections even higher.

So with that knowledge, Ford has now put Ontario in a position where taxpayers are going to have to pay multiples more for electricity because his policy has put the province behind the proverbial eight ball.

Maybe if he skips putting beer in corner stores, that billion dollars can go towards new electrical generation?  Hospitals?  Education?

 

 

[Seeker]

Yes, I know.   Ford is evil.  

BTW, you are right about the wasted billion on beer in the corner stores.

 

[deicer]

15 hours ago, Seeker said:

Yes, I know.   Ford is evil.  

BTW, you are right about the wasted billion on beer in the corner stores.

 

Thank you for acknowledging a symptom in the sickness.

[Seeker]

34 minutes ago, deicer said:

Thank you for acknowledging a symptom in the sickness.

Well, don't be too quick to thank me.  I read some more about the billion dollar "cost" last night but haven't had time to reply yet.  Seems like it might not be a billion after all and that that number comes from his political opponents and just might be inflated a bit.

[deicer]

While the initial cost is $225 million, they aren't accounting for how much will be paid to the Beer Store to keep outlets open to accept empties.  Also, the cost in corner stores for the product will be higher also.

Just not good business sense when they could have done it next year with no cost because of the contract expiring.

It's the same justification they used when they paid Staples $10 million to retrofit stores for Service Ontario outlets, and then touted that it would save taxpayers $1 million over three years 

At the same time, it isn't the government, however, the Ontario conservative party has paid over $600,000 in lawyers fees for the developers that were involved in the greenbelt scandal.

Dougy just wants you drunk and stoned for when he calls the early election next spring! (Because even he's afraid it will hurt his re-election chances IF Polievre gets in!)

[Malcolm]

Surely the date to being advising owners is not correct. 

Quote

Kia plans to begin notifying owners of the recall on July 30

 

 

The 2023 Kia Telluride is unveiled at the 2022 New York International Auto Show, in Manhattan, New York City, U.S., April 13, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid© Thomson Reuters

By David Shepardson

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Owners of about 463,000 Kia vehicles in the United States should park outside and away from structures until they get a recall repair for fire risks completed.

The Korean automaker said Friday it was recalling Telluride sport utility vehicles from the 2020 through 2024 model years over fire risks stemming from overheating front power seat motors.

 

Kia said it has reports of one underseat fire and six reports of the seat motor melting -- including some with smoke in the compartment or complaints of burning smells -- but no crashes or injuries.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said "owners are advised to park outside and away from structures until the recall repair is complete."

Kia dealers will install a bracket for the power seat switch back covers and replace the seat slide knobs to remedy the issue.

"The front power seat motor may overheat due to a stuck power seat slide knob, which can result in a fire while parked or driving," NHTSA said.

Kia plans to begin notifying owners of the recall on July 30.

(Editing by William Maclean)

[Airband]

3 hours ago, Malcolm said:

Surely the date to being advising owners is not correct. 

Quote

Kia plans to begin notifying owners of the recall on July 30

The manufacturer has 60 days after advising the appropriate regulatory body (NHTSA/Transport Canada) to notify owners of the defect and the steps to be taken to correct it. While EVs have their own well-documented fire hazards, all the vehicles related to this recall are ICE vehicles.

 

[Malcolm]

Well I guess they asked for heated seats

[deicer]

https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/03/15/analysis/high-gas-prices-some-canadians-are-filling-under-35-cents-litre

High gas prices? Some Canadians are filling up for under 35 cents a ‘litre’

Gasoline prices are surging. That's forcing owners of gasoline-burning cars to pay a lot more to drive around. In some areas of Canada, gasoline now costs more than $2 a litre.

Canadians who own electric-powered vehicles (EVs), however, are filling up for less than 35 cents per "litre equivalent." The reason EVs are so much cheaper to fuel is because they only require a quarter as much energy to drive them around. A rough rule of thumb for comparing fuel prices is that two kilowatt-hours (kWh) in an EV provides the same driving energy as one litre of gasoline does in a gasoline-burner. (See the endnotes for all the geeky details.)

My chart below lets you compare the current costs of filling up with gasoline versus electricity in major cities across Canada. Those tall red coin stacks show the average price for gasoline in each city right now. The short gold coin stacks show the local price for the litre equivalent of two kWh of electricity for an EV.

For example, the bars on the far left show that in Vancouver, it currently costs nine times more to drive with gasoline than with electricity. And since all of B.C.'s gasoline is imported, a lot of the money spent at the pump leaves the province. In contrast, filling EVs with made-in-B.C. electricity keeps those energy dollars and energy jobs in the province.

In many other cities — like Calgary, Toronto, Moncton and St. John's — gasoline currently costs seven times more to drive on than local electricity.

The biggest winners in Canada right now are EV drivers in Quebec. As the chart shows, charging an EV at home in Montreal costs around 13 cents per litre equivalent. Oh, and as a very nice bonus, Quebec's electricity is also 700 times less climate-polluting to drive on than burning gasoline. (Yes, 700 times cleaner … see endnotes for details.)

 

Despite electricity being many times cheaper and cleaner for Canadian drivers, only three per cent of the new passenger vehicles bought in Canada last year were all-electric EVs. That's five times fewer than the number Europeans bought. It's also fewer than Americans bought. It's even below the global average.

The reason our peers in many other nations are choosing electric over gasoline far more often is because their governments introduced policies that make EVs the better choice for them. These policies are helping their citizens lock in a future of lower fuel costs, less deadly air pollution and declining climate emissions.

If Canada's federal and provincial governments want to provide the same benefits to Canadians, they know how to do it. For example, Canada could adopt the policy package that has worked so spectacularly well in Norway — where 80 per cent of the new cars Norwegians buy now are all-electric EVs. If that northern oil-exporting nation can do it, surely ours can, too.

*********

Analysis: Columnist @bsaxifrage breaks down how much it costs right now to power a car with gasoline versus electricity in cities across Canada.

 

Endnotes

• 2 kWh for an EV = 1 litre gasoline. This is the rough rule of thumb I used in this article to compare fuel costs. Here's the data and math:
  
  One litre of gasoline — The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) says a litre of gasoline contains 8.9 kWh of heat energy, but that just 20 per cent of that energy ends up turning the wheels. The rest is lost in friction and waste heat. That means each litre of gasoline supplies 1.8 kWh of driving energy (math: 8.9 kWh x 20% = 1.8 kWh).
  
  A litre equivalent in electricity — EVs are far more energy-efficient. The EPA says that 88 per cent of the electricity put into an EV makes it to the wheels. So, to deliver a "litre equivalent" of 1.8 kWh in driving energy to the wheels requires fuelling an EV with two kWh from the grid (math: 2 kWh x 88% = 1.8 kWh).
• CO2 from filling up in Quebec — Burning a litre of gasoline emits 2,350 grams of carbon dioxide (gCO2). Quebec's electricity emits 3.4 gCO2 to generate the litre equivalent of two kWh for an EV (see Canada's National Inventory Report, Part 3). That makes gasoline 700 times more climate-polluting to drive on than Quebec's electricity.
• Gas prices — The gas prices in my chart are per-litre averages for each city on March 10, according to the popular GasBuddy.com.
• Electricity prices — The electricity prices in my chart are the average cost in each city for two kWh (a litre equivalent), according to Hydro Quebec's "2021 Comparison of Electricity Prices in Major North American Cities" report.
• Fuel costs for average Canadian passenger vehicle — The average new car in Canada will burn 28,000 litres (21 tonnes of gasoline) over a 200,000-mile lifespan. At $1.50 per litre, the gasoline bill would add up to $42,000. At $0.14 per kWh, the electricity to drive an equivalent EV would cost $8,000.
• 

[Jaydee]

[deicer]

Follow the facts and not the fossil fuel company narrative.

https://www.iea.org/news/massive-expansion-of-renewable-power-opens-door-to-achieving-global-tripling-goal-set-at-cop28

Massive expansion of renewable power opens door to achieving global tripling goal set at COP28

World added 50% more renewable capacity in 2023 than in 2022 and next 5 years will see fastest growth yet, but lack of financing for emerging and developing economies is key issue

The world’s capacity to generate renewable electricity is expanding faster than at any time in the last three decades, giving it a real chance of achieving the goal of tripling global capacity by 2030 that governments set at the COP28 climate change conference last month, the IEA says in a new report.

The amount of renewable energy capacity added to energy systems around the world grew by 50% in 2023, reaching almost 510 gigawatts (GW), with solar PV accounting for three-quarters of additions worldwide, according to Renewables 2023, the latest edition of the IEA’s annual market report on the sector. The largest growth took place in China, which commissioned as much solar PV in 2023 as the entire world did in 2022, while China’s wind power additions rose by 66% year-on-year. The increases in renewable energy capacity in Europe, the United States and Brazil also hit all-time highs.

The latest analysis is the first comprehensive assessment of global renewable energy deployment trends since the conclusion of the COP28 conference in Dubai in December. The report shows that under existing policies and market conditions, global renewable power capacity is now expected to grow to 7 300 GW over the 2023-28 period covered by the forecast. Solar PV and wind account for 95% of the expansion, with renewables overtaking coal to become the largest source of global electricity generation by early 2025. But despite the unprecedented growth over the past 12 months, the world needs to go further to triple capacity by 2030, which countries agreed to do at COP28.

Solar PV and onshore wind deployment through 2028 is expected to more than double in the United States, the European Union, India and Brazil, compared with the last five years. Prices for solar PV modules in 2023 declined by almost 50% year-on-year, with cost reductions and fast deployment set to continue. This is because global manufacturing capacity is forecast to reach 1 100 GW by the end of 2024, significantly exceeding demand. By contrast, the wind industry (outside of China) is facing a more challenging environment due to a combination of ongoing supply chain disruption, higher costs and long permitting timelines, which require stronger policy attention. 

[Airband]

Almost 40% of U.S. EV buyers want to go back to combustion engine cars, McKinsey study says

More than a quarter of EV owners are likely to return to combustion engine vehicles for their next purchase, according to survey

A Chevrolet Blazer EV plugged in at a ChargePoint charging station

Wed Jun 12, 2024 - Automotive News
by Peter Bigelow

Nearly 4 in 10 owners of electric vehicles in the U.S. are likely buy a combustion engine car for their next purchase.

That's the takeaway of a global McKinsey & Co. consumer survey that, among other findings, concluded that charging concerns are hindering the transition to EVs.

Twenty-nine percent of EV owners across the globe said they're likely to reverse course. That hit 38 percent in the U.S. Consumers globally said their top concern was the inadequacy of the public charging infrastructure. They also cited concerns with high costs of ownership and detrimental impact to long-distance trips.

"I didn't expect that," Philipp Kampshoff, leader of the consulting firm's Center for Future Mobility, told Automotive News. "I thought, 'Once an EV buyer, always an EV buyer.' "

The consumer sentiments may go hand in hand with the slow rollout of a U.S.-backed charging network. Only eight stations are operational following the creation of the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure program two years ago.

Only 23 states have started doling out financing from the $5 billion federal program, according to EVAdoption data through the end of May.

Among existing stations, both public and private stations can be hard to find. Gas station options are displayed on road signage near interstate exits, while EV chargers remain far from public view.

"Part of availability is visibility," he said. "You can't keep chargers hidden behind a Walmart."

The U.S. is not alone. Only 9 percent of global respondents felt the public-charging buildout was sufficient for their needs.

But it's a problem bound to grow in importance because "the next generation of EV buyers will rely on public charging much more than the current one," Kampshoff said.

Among other charging-related findings, McKinsey found:

• Twenty-one percent of global respondents do not want to ever switch to an EV. Among those, 33 percent cited charging concerns.
• Charging concerns are exacerbated by range-related expectations. Consumers' minimum range expectations have grown to 291.4 miles today from 270 miles in 2022. The range of in-market products has not grown as quickly, McKinsey said.

As part of its biennial survey, McKinsey asked approximately 200 questions to more than 30,000 consumers in 15 countries, which collectively comprise more than 80 percent of global sales volume. McKinsey issued its findings on June 12.

Overall, consumers are slightly more willing to consider electrified vehicles than they were two years ago. Thirty-eight percent of non-EV owners say they anticipate that a plug-in hybrid or full battery electric will be their next vehicle. That’s up from 37 percent in 2022.

Varied consumer preferences for EVs, plug-ins and combustion powertrains, combined with a variety of changing regulations globally, make planning a complicated process across the auto industry and its supply chain.

"OEMs and suppliers now have to invest in multiple technologies," said Kevin Laczkowski, global co-lead of McKinsey's automotive and assembly practice. "This is the ultimate uncertainty right now, like almost never before."

[deicer]

So the article basically says it isn't because of the vehicles, it's the lack of charging stations for people who can't charge at home.

Here's a website with a pretty comprehensive map for charging stations across Canada.  

Lots in cities, fewer in rural locations, but growing.

https://chargehub.com/map/#/en/map

[Airband]

Yeah, all is good. Hold course.

EV slowdown steers the world further off course from net zero

Battery-electric sales projections have been slashed by 6.7 million vehicles through 2026

Wed Jun 12, 2024 - Bloomberg News
by Craig Trudell

Electric vehicles have swiftly gone from a bright spot in the global climate fight to cause for concern, leading BloombergNEF to slash sales estimates and warn that the auto industry is falling further off the track toward decarbonization.

In its annual Electric Vehicle Outlook, BNEF reduced its battery-electric sales projections by 6.7 million vehicles through 2026. While the demand deceleration isn’t universal across countries and EVs will be buoyed somewhat by the resurgence of plug-in hybrids, a few Nordic countries and the state of California are the only places on pace to eliminate passenger vehicle fleet emissions by 2050.

“Some markets are experiencing a significant slowdown and many automakers have pushed back their EV targets,” BNEF analysts led by Colin McKerracher wrote in the report released Wednesday. “The window for achieving net-zero emissions in road transport is closing quickly and there is no room left for complacency.”

The outlook for fully electric vehicles has markedly deteriorated in the past year. BNEF began the 2023 edition of its EV Outlook by highlighting the profound transformation sweeping the auto sector and the rapid spread of electrification across almost all vehicle types. This year, the researcher recaps how several of the world’s largest manufacturers — including Ford Motor Co., General Motors Co., Volkswagen AG and even Tesla Inc. — have dialed back ambitions in recent months.

BNEF sees China continuing to dominate EVs, batteries and the global supply chains for raw materials and components, spurring pushback by Washington and Brussels in the form of higher tariffs. Indeed, the European Union is poised to slap new levies on EV imports from manufacturers including BYD Co. and Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. Calls for a level playing field have fallen on deaf ears in Beijing, where the government spent decades doling out what likely amounted to tens of billions of dollars in subsidies.

China can now make far more batteries than it needs, which is driving down prices in dramatic fashion. The nation’s cell manufacturing capacity already was more than three times domestic demand last year and will rise to more than six times in 2025, if all factories planned for the country come online.

This has helped drive prices for China’s lithium iron phosphate battery cells — a cheaper chemistry rapidly gaining adoption — down to US$53 per kilowatt hour, roughly half the global average. As a result, the nation is “the only large auto market that has reached the point of consumer-led takeoff for EV sales,” BNEF said.

Battery price declines haven’t been nearly as steep in other major markets, contributing to BNEF cutting its overall EV sales projections — which include plug-in hybrids — for this year and each of the next four years in the U.S., Germany, Japan, Italy and the U.K.

The reasons BNEF cites for the reductions across five members of the Group of Seven vary by country:

• Ford and GM’s “lackluster” performance, Tesla’s aging lineup and uncertainty about the U.S. presidential election
• Germany abruptly ending subsidies in December and the country’s challenging economic conditions
• A lack of commitment to EVs among Japan’s major carmakers and few new electric models in the nation’s minicar segment
• Inconsistent regulatory support in Italy and the U.K.

“The transformation might take longer than expected,” Mercedes-Benz Group AG Chief Executive Officer Ola Källenius said at the carmaker’s annual meeting last month. The maker of S-Class sedans and G-Wagon SUVs now expects to continue making combustion-engine and hybrid vehicles well into the 2030s, backing off a goal to go all-electric in some markets by the end of the decade.

Before Mercedes altered its targets, Volkswagen scrapped plans for a US $2.15 billion EV factory in Germany; Ford, GM and Tesla pumped the brakes on plant investments; and Tata Motors Ltd.’s Jaguar Land Rover announced a slower rollout of battery-electric models, citing surprise at the level of demand for its plug-in hybrids.

JLR is far from alone in this regard. One of the more upbeat themes of BNEF’s report is the boom in demand for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, or PHEVs.

In response to PHEV sales rising at a faster rate than battery-electric or conventional hybrid vehicles since 2019, BNEF dramatically increased its estimates for sales through the middle of the next decade. As of last year, the researcher expected sales to top out just shy of 6.5 million vehicles by 2026, then fade to around 325,000 by 2035. Now, BNEF sees a peak of almost 9.2 million in 2030, and for more than 4.7 million to be sold in 2035.

China became the world’s top market for PHEVs in 2022, thanks to the introduction of affordable models from BYD and Li Auto Inc. PHEVs now sell for virtually the same average price in China as vehicles running entirely on internal combustion engines.

“It’s a well-conceived move by the Chinese automakers to use this technology to try to tempt the more resistant consumers in those not-yet-saturated parts of China,” said Aleksandra O’Donovan, who leads BNEF’s Electrified Transport research team. “It’s a big country.”

But BNEF’s positivity about PHEVs comes with a caveat.

Studies by the nonprofit International Council on Clean Transportation and the advocacy group Transport & Environment have found that PHEVs emit more in real-world driving than in tests used for regulatory compliance and ratings advertised to consumers. This is largely because the procedures assume vehicle owners will drive in electric mode more than they actually do.“There’s a bit of risk in putting too much faith in PHEVs,” O’Donovan said. “How decarbonization-friendly they are will depend on how much they’re charged, and the evidence so far on that front is not great.”

While the uptick in PHEV demand helps keeps BNEF’s forecast for 2024 electric vehicle sales broadly in line with what was expected in previous years, the rate of growth in the next four years is expected to average 21 per cent annually, compared to 61 per cent between 2020 and 2023.

The global fleet of internal combustion engine vehicles is expected to peak next year, but sales would need to end altogether by around 2038 for the world to get to a completely zero-emission fleet by 2050.

Only Nordic countries, including Norway, are on pace to fully phase out ICE vehicle sales in the necessary time frame, BNEF said.