Guest neo Posted October 22, 2003 Share Posted October 22, 2003 Ah, I see. You claim that Air Canada is damaging WestJet's bottom line? That your revenue is suffering because of AC's "scorched earth policy"? The numbers your employer puts up would seem to indicate otherwise. I guess you're entitled to believe, or claim, what you want. You're making money hand over fist, all the while claiming your competition is robbing you blind. Keep pounding that drum if you want, but no one's going to be listening much longer. neo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Simcoe Posted October 22, 2003 Share Posted October 22, 2003 Overstated rasms, eh? Given that the financials are audited, and have been reviewed by the United States Ex-Im bank, ING, one of the largest banks in the world, the syndicate of 10 investment banks from the last equity offering amongst others, how do you suppose they did that? By overestimating the casms? Operating profit = (rasm - casm) x asms. You haven't been taking the remedial math courses down at the union hall, have you, bomberdud? Here's an interesting tidbit. Since Frontier installed LiveTV, their l/f has sky rocketed about 15% pts with no change in yield. Jetblue operates with an l/f about 10 pts higher than US system average and has higher yield than its competitors. If WJ's l/f goes up 5% pts, (1/3rd the increase seen by Frontier and one half the l/f premium jetblue has on the rest of the industry), with no change in yield, simple math shows that at today's multiples, WJA is a $33 stock with maximum profit sharing for all employees. Add a 2% uptick in yield, which AC obviously needs more than WJ, and it's a $35 stock with maximum profit sharing. Meanwhile, 84% of WJ employees, according to the AIF, were buying the full complement of their stock at a price of about $8.50 for a year. For the average employee, who makes about $35,000, , plus 20% profit share or about $42,000 a year, that's about 988 shares a year with a cost base of $8,400. After a years mandatory hold, which will have expired by the time it hits $35, the stock can be sold for $34,580, or a gross gain of $26,180. That puts average salaries at pretty close to $70,000, bomberdud. For an entry level captain, achievable within 3 years of joining WJ, that's closer to $155,837 not including stock options that add about another $75k to the total. Oh yea. The stock profit is probably a capital gain so its taxed at about 20%, not 45%. You probably still don't get it. Enjoying your salary cut? Get used to it. It's only just begun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Simcoe Posted October 22, 2003 Share Posted October 22, 2003 Say what you want. There are only three guys on the Planet Earth that run airlines that have enjoyed 27 consecutive quarters of profitability. Herb Kelleher, Michael O'Leary and Clive Beddoe. The best way to get rich is to pay attention to those who are already rich, have a vested interest in getting richer and in sharing the wealth. You want to pay attention to the moronic, chicken little, union rhetoric ramblings of Bomberdud, go right ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goonybird Posted October 22, 2003 Share Posted October 22, 2003 Check your facts Simcoe. CX had 20 years plus of profits, and many Asian carriers consistently produce profits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest neo Posted October 22, 2003 Share Posted October 22, 2003 Some of the A321's lessors went to court, presumably to get what they wanted enforced. And so how does that equate to them having a gun at their heads, as in your NatLamp analogy? Your offer to stand corrected if Air Canada is making payments on its debt is an attempt to draw attention away from a statement you made that is incorrect, by my recollection. You claimed that Air Canada's bondholders are, "...are owed billions in principal and interest." I believe your claim is grossly overstated. If my recollection is incorrect, then I apologize. If not, you may wish to show some class and do likewise. At the moment, your outfit looks like it could use it. neo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Simcoe Posted October 22, 2003 Share Posted October 22, 2003 There are only 3 guys on the planet that have operated ailines with 27 or more consecutive quarters of profitability. CX lost HK$1,241m, (C$210m) in the six months ended June 30th, according to page 2 of their interim financial report. If you can show how they could have done that and yet still have 27 consecutive quarters of profitability, I'll buy into your argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
E-HANDLE Posted October 22, 2003 Share Posted October 22, 2003 Well we can go back and forth on this, but I still don't see what profit has to do with whether or not what AC is executing is a scorcthed earth policy. I believe that AC has and continues to put major financial pressure on WestJet without regard for their own losses, because they are in CCAA and they can. IMO, that's wrong. I also believe rationality will return to the market. When it does, we'll all be better off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Bergen Posted October 22, 2003 Share Posted October 22, 2003 I am surprised to see you back here after you were railed out from both Westjet and non Westjet types for saying that you had your Westjet friends checking on passengers for you. Hopefully you have learned to think then type and not just the latter. I agree that Clive should just enjoy his success and leave it at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
E-HANDLE Posted October 22, 2003 Share Posted October 22, 2003 My understanding is that they went to court to either get paid or get their airplanes back. Was not your original assertion that the lessors they could take the airplanes back if they wanted to? As to the debt. Fair enough. I will attempt to find out how much of the aformentioned debt is in bonds, and if I am incorrect, I will apologize. Perhaps dagger or someone else in the know can give the defintive number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Simcoe Posted October 22, 2003 Share Posted October 22, 2003 ...and I'll bet Dagger stll hasn't flown WestJet either.....but that won't stop him pontificating on the in-flight service, which he's never experienced..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Bergen Posted October 22, 2003 Share Posted October 22, 2003 I am surprised to see you back here after you were railed out from both Westjet and non Westjet types for saying that you had your Westjet friends checking on passengers for you. Hopefully you have learned to think then type and not just the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest neo Posted October 22, 2003 Share Posted October 22, 2003 E-HANDLE, A "scorched earth policy" would suggest that Air Canada has decimated the industry, that it has sown the ground with salt, that there isn't a tree left standing. Not only that, but it would suggest that Air Canada, far from barely surviving, is somehow wrecking havoc on its adversaries due to its overwhelming power. That's complete balderdash, E-HANDLE, and the fact that you are posting the numbers you are, and that other competition is thriving proves the point. You can only cry "wolf" so long before people clue in. neo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Bergen Posted October 22, 2003 Share Posted October 22, 2003 Actually I think TCA and Air Canada during government ownership had quite a string of profitable quarters. Does this mean I should look to the government for investment advice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Virtual Posted October 22, 2003 Share Posted October 22, 2003 I believe that Clive's comments are made only for his best/self interests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maverick Posted October 22, 2003 Share Posted October 22, 2003 I'll be honest with you neo, normally I enjoy reading your posts and while I don't always agree with you, you are generally fairly even handed, not with this thread though. The point I and I think most of my cohorts are making is this, Air Canada is not paying some or all of its bills (depending on who you talk to), has single-handedly pushed NavCan into raising its rates do non payment, continues to sell $39 fairs out of YXX which is one station that no one could reasonably think they've ever made a dime in, etc. Maybe I'm being paranoid but this must be creating some cashflow, which the evil me thinks will be used to put the boots to the throats of its competitors, yes? If Air Canada reports a huge loss or even a loss at all in the 3rd quarter then will they ever be any hope? The American carriers, which Air Canada and a lot on this forum compared themselves favourably to not so many months ago, seem to be coming out of this quite nicely thank you very much. What has happened with AC? P.S. Any predictions on your 3rd quarter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadaEH Posted October 22, 2003 Share Posted October 22, 2003 How long will he be able to work the 'poor little airline' schtick without a backlash That poor little airline shtick is getting Westjet put into every article/comparison to do with Air Canada. Free advertising. Westjet has been flying more and more people year over year, so I think that "shtick" seems to be working, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Operation Bomberclad Posted October 22, 2003 Share Posted October 22, 2003 There seem to be very few animals living in your potemkin village, Simcoe. Believe me Simcoe, I am glad to have this discussion with you since it gives me the opportunity to look at the opposite point of view. I am not an investor in Wetjest, so I am not vested in anyway and my viewpoint is not influenced by the amount of money/anxiety in how your investment in the airline fares. Your math is equally effective to demonstrating how a Captain no less can be making only around a few thousand less than I am, and I don't even fly the plane. A catastrophic loss in the value of your shares will make the workplace seem much worse than a gulag, with every body secretly wanting to sell their shares, the company and debtholders/bondholders standing in their way yet everybody obliged to keep a smiling face on it all and feeding each other the same numbers you are feeding me now. Yep, from your argument I see just how deeply indebted Wetjest is getting and how dependant the whole scheme is on the share price alone, and how they are speaking for major investment houses, and not the employees and small investors who will be left holding the bag. That is, should the price fail. :[ OB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
E-HANDLE Posted October 22, 2003 Share Posted October 22, 2003 So far, this is all I can find, but I will keep looking. A plan to convert billions of dollars of Air Canada bonds and other debt into shares that would shore up the carrier's balance sheet. http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/1056999133482_1?s_name= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
E-HANDLE Posted October 22, 2003 Share Posted October 22, 2003 So far, this is all I can find, but I will keep looking. A plan to convert billions of dollars of Air Canada bonds and other debt into shares that would shore up the carrier's balance sheet. http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/1056999133482_1?s_name= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Operation Bomberclad Posted October 22, 2003 Share Posted October 22, 2003 It will work to your detriment as an employee. The magical gold-spinning business yarn will unravel someday and *poof* there go the shares. :[ OB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadaEH Posted October 22, 2003 Share Posted October 22, 2003 I would expect it to take a while before all the labor concessions, renegotiated leases, etc are reflected in the results. The second quarter results reflected a lot of those renegotiated contracts/leases, and labor concessions. They will also be reflected into the third quarter results, with even more renegotiated contracts/leases from the previous three months. I can't see Air Canada making ANY money in the fourth and first quarters if they can't make money in the two most profitable quarters - the second and third. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadaEH Posted October 22, 2003 Share Posted October 22, 2003 How so? It's now an Air Canada (Jazz, Zip, mainline) vs. Westjet thing isn't it? Lets see: Customer Service: Westjet vs. Air Canada Profitability: Westjet vs. Air Canada Reliability: Westjet vs. Air Canada Morale: Westjet vs. Air Canada Perks: Westjet vs. Air Canada Comfort: Westjet vs. Air Canada Stock price: Westjet vs. Air Canada Competition: Westjet vs. Air Canada Business Model: Westjet vs. Air Canada The list goes on and on. Air Canada's negatives are being exposed and Westjet's positives are being used as a comparison. How is the gold-spinning business yarn going to unravel? I'd like to know why and how you think it's going to unravel. Westjet hasn't even begun to hit the transborder market, do you think that's going to effect Air Canada? Jetsgo has, but that takes a backseat to Westjet and Air Canada according to the media. When was the last time you heard Clive bash Jetsgo or Canjet? All he does is talk down to Air Canada and for good reason. Air Canada has a failed business plan and Westjet does not. You are nothing but a bitter AC employee, and yes, Jazz does constitute an Air Canada employee. I don't like to talk trash about Air Canada because I feel for the people have/are/will loosing their jobs - so I'm sorry to those of you who are taking offense to my post. You claim Westjet has consistently overstated its rasms, and glossed its profits over on people. Give me a break, is that all you can come up with? What facts are these accusations based on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
E-HANDLE Posted October 22, 2003 Share Posted October 22, 2003 I finally called a contact at a large financial services group at home. He tells me that Air Canada has total debt (not counting leases) of $4.8 billion. Of that, bond debt is $3.4 billion, spread across 15 issues. P.S. If anyone is looking for me on Saturday, I will be mowing the lawn at my freinds house. Ain't nuthin' free Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dagger Posted October 22, 2003 Share Posted October 22, 2003 This thread began with Clive's prediction that AC would drag out its CCAA until April 04. In the case of bond debt, principal and interest, it is immaterial when AC comes out of CCAA because it will be converted to equity. This is different from whether AC is paying its caterer or its fueler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
E-HANDLE Posted October 22, 2003 Share Posted October 22, 2003 Did Clive say that AC was not paying the caterer or the fueler? No, what he said that there were debts that AC was not paying. Like bond principal and interest. What is going to be left for them after enough Calgary to Abotsford at $30 each way? Whether or not the bondholders convert their debt remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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