Guest carbheat Posted September 22, 2003 Share Posted September 22, 2003 Dagger Your commentary last week re Collenette'e Crimes, had some very strong opinions about the Island Airports chances. i.e. "While not specifically advocating the construction of a fixed link to Toronto Island Airport, he is in the position to quash it. And doesn't. Why does Toronto need an inner city airport when $4 billion is being spent on expanding Pearson. And how does the minister rationalize building a high speed rail line to Pearson when he is allowing a competiting airport to siphon off some traffic. I predict that the DeLuce Dash 8 airline at Toronto Island will be a failure of cosmic proportions that will somehow leave Toronto taxpayers holding the ball. It is so obvious that the project is doomed that it should be stopped. I don't expect stupid municpal politicians to know this - they think they are getting a money-making airport in exchange for a $15 million bridge. But Collenette knows better, and is allowing this travesty to proceed." What exactly is it so obvious that this venture will fail? This project is going forward, and people are soon going to be hired. Your insights on this are appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dagger Posted September 22, 2003 Share Posted September 22, 2003 It will fail because the airport cannot be made big enough to enable the airline to achieve the critical mass it needs to offer the kind of frequency that will take business away from Pearson. Dash 8 aircraft are not good discount aircraft, competing against large jets in a high frequency operation. So it cannot compete on price any more than City Express did. Convenience is negated by the fact that the cities to which it proposes to fly do not have an Island airport equivalent. The business population will not support a turboprop operation to large cities like NY or Montreal - it doesn't go for it now. A bridge only shaves a maximum of 15 minutes off of total trip time. It doesn't make up for the faster jet timings, or the convenience of hourly service. Pearson is well located, adjacent to assorted expressways: 401, 409, 427, 27, 404, 400. Far more of the Toronto catchment basin for business travel has access to Pearson than to YTZ. We tend to think downtown is the business community - it is but a fraction of the business community, and much of it is in places like Mississauga, Richmond Hill, Vaughn, Thornhill, Markham, etc. The high tech, telecommunications and biotech is very much a suburban business. Large downtown companies also have corporate contracts with AC which, if memory serves, are often volume based and help them average down costs for their entire travel across the Star Alliance network. Air Canada has at least a bit presence in the US market, and Star Alliance/United helps it attract business. It would be terribly expensive for a new entrant with conventional pricing and turboprops to get access to large metropolitan markets like NY, Mtl, etc without substantial advertising. And there is no sign that Air Canada will pull out of YTZ so it won't even have the local downtown business market to itself. It won't have the suburban market to itself, it won't have the discount market to itself. And even the fee and parking advantages that YTZ has over Pearson will be partly negated by a $15 bridge toll per passenger and on-sight parking charges, neither of which will accrue to the airline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Roadie Posted September 22, 2003 Share Posted September 22, 2003 I completely disagree with your comments, if you are doing business out of the downtown core why would you want to waste time going through the hassles of getting to Pearson and then dealing with the issues of terminal-2. You save time and effort just by having the airport close by, the dash8 is cheap to lease and has a low cost associated operationally. When Air Ontario operated out of the island , they were always full and thats with no support from the mainline in terms of promoting the service. A new carrier with a fresh team of marketers and some contracts could make excellent use of the airport. The dash8 -400 cruises at .6 and on the short haul routes , ie Ottawa, Montreal and some US destinations the difference in speed versus a jet is negligible. This market is valid, its the same as saying Abbotsford is not viable , and look at how great a market that has been developed into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest citiflyer Posted September 22, 2003 Share Posted September 22, 2003 You are wrong a number of counts. 1. City Express achieved passenger volumes of 0ver 400,000 in the 80's with no bridge and the old terminal. 2.London City LCY is now boarding over 5 million passengers a year and BA says it will be one of the largest growth markets they are involved in. 3.Travel time from downtown to Pearson in rush hour is nearly an hour, to the TCCA it is 8 minutes,(along with checkin at Union Station and full access to GO and the TTC), couple that with the long lines at Pearson and long taxi times you have time savings in the order of several hours for business passengers. 4.Several destinations have downown airports. Detroit City(DET), Chicago Midway, Washington Regan, Cleveland Burke Lake front for example. 5.The Q400 operating economics are stellar, and at 360 kt cruise speed the block times on 500 nm legs are equal to or better than a jet. 6.There will be BIG frequencies to 17 major northeastern business destinations offering a real choice over Air Canada. As well as interlining with major carriers AND a FF plan. So dagger, a new bridge a new terminal a fleet of new Q400 aircraft I'd say looks pretty good right now. The only failure of "cosmic proportions" is likely to be Air Canada. A "keystone cop" management team has taken a debt free monopoly and pi$$ed it away. Now on the verge of bankruptcy the vulture fund specialists are circling. time will tell.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dagger Posted September 22, 2003 Share Posted September 22, 2003 1. City Express went bankrupt 2. London England is London England. 3. Chicago Midway is not a city centre airport. 4. The Q400 does not have lower seat mile costs than a 737-700 or an A319. 5. Your assertion that going through Pearson with traffic and whatever adds "several hours" to a trip is wrong on two acccounts. It is a significant exaggeration, and it ignores my point that most business traffic in the greater Toronto area does not come from downtown. It comes from across the GTA and is more convenient to Pearson, or Hamilton, or Buttonville. I am 20 minutes in the morning from Pearson, 30 minutes from downtown. The same applies to 90 percent of people beginning a day trip from their homes. They are closer to Pearson (or Hamilton, or Buttonville) 6. You ignore the possibility of a high speed train line which Bombardier seems to want to build from Union Station and the effect that will have on the downtown market. 7. You ignore the fact that at other big city airports, Deluce Express will operate from inferior gates, like the gates out on the satellite in Dorval, meaning add back in 15-20 minutes of walking at the airport vs a Rapidair product. 8. In New York, since that is a Deluce Express destination, you will have to operate out of Newark to get slots, but the overwhelming % of business travellers want to go to LaGuardia which is slot controlled. Do you have any idea how much it would cost to get a half dozen slots at LaGuardia, or Kennedy? More than Deluce would budget to lose in his first year of operations. 9. A 70-seat prop is the wrong aircraft for large intercity routes, and it is the wrong aircraft for regional routes. 10 Island Airport will have parking constraints that will have the practical effect of limiting growth, and if AC chooses to keep flying from there, and why not, they have been doing it continuously for over 15 years, that would further cut into expansion possibilities for Deluce Express 11. Don't tell me that City Express had 400,000 passengers a year. Zip just said it had 1 million in its first year. What does it prove? 400,000 passengers a year is 1100 passengers a day for the entire schedule, bidirectional, all routes. I don't like this project because a) it's a sop to business it's going to be a waste for taxpayers c) No one needs a city centre airport; Chicago is ripping up its city centre airport (Meigs Field) d) Toronto is spending $4 billion to dote itself with one of the world's biggest airports. Traffic splitting between two Toronto airports is moronic. e) I don't want Bombardier to get yet another sweetheart taxpayer-subsidized deal. f) As soon as Deluce Express hits an air pocket, it is going to cry and whine for the right to use jets, an abomination. The Toronto waterfront is special, I make extensive use of it, and I do not want jets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dagger Posted September 22, 2003 Share Posted September 22, 2003 Air Ontario is still flying out of there. But not growing. Still, I know people who have taken the service, I did a few times, but to tell you the truth, I don't live downtown and Pearson is more convenient. In the end, most people I know who travel on the proposed Deluce Express network prefer Pearson. If you get up at 6 a.m. to do a day trip, it's far more convenient for most business travellers to just drive to Pearson. The roads are empty, the hassles you describe almost non-existent. It seems hard to impress on some of you just how much of the business of Toronto is NOT located in a four-block radiius of the Royal York Hotel. And a high-speed rail service to Pearson, if it comes to be, would pretty much eliminate any perceived convenience factor. There is no public transit to the Island airport, so unless you are within a short walk of the Royal York Hotel, you either have to take a Taxi or you take a subway to get a courtesy bus. You have to tack on the time for that, allowing a bit of time to make sure you get the courtesy bus. For the overwhelming majority of business travellers in the greater Toronto area, it is not eight minutes to Toronto Island. It is much more. As for Abbotsford, it's not a city airport. It's further out than YVR. It's growth is based primarily on discount products, and its proximity to the outer ring of population and business travel in the Lower Mainland. Toronto Island is not a discount airport. It cannot support 170 seat jets. It is not in or near major residential areas unless you count harborfront condos and poor working class neighborhoods as part of your business travel catchment basin. It is a niche airport, a dubious niche at that. Did you ever wonder why Lou Turpin of the GTAA never opposed the Island Airport project. Because GTAA knows it is a dog. But I as a taxpayer and a citizen who wants to see a magnificant waterfront in Toronto don't have the luxury of sitting back watching it fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fester Posted September 22, 2003 Share Posted September 22, 2003 Dagger, I think you gave yourself away by stating that you make extensive use of the Toronto waterfront. No wonder you hate YTZ. And a couple of other observations: You feel BBD is sucking public coffers, well, it's one of the most fantastic Canadian success stories, putting back so much more into the economy/government than it takes out. Also, about Meigs field, the only reason it's being ripped up is because the local mafia-mayor decided he and his buds could make more money using the land for other projects, going against all public opinion and public outcry. Last, I don't feel Duluce is going to scream for jets. Ever seen a Q400 perform? It IS a jet on one hour flights. BTW, I do enjoy your posts and insights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrench Posted September 22, 2003 Share Posted September 22, 2003 Food for thought: A fellow that lives several doors from me is a Liberal MP in Ottawa. He tells me that there is HUGE friction between Paul Martin and David Collenette. Times they are a changin' (we can only hope) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dagger Posted September 22, 2003 Share Posted September 22, 2003 I gave myself away by saying I make extensive use of the waterfront? At least I am bein honest. What's your axe? DeHavilland worker? Unemployed pilot? Do we really have to prostitute one of our best assets in this city - one that can be made a whole lot better still - to give you a job? So let's all declare our personal interests here. Mine are on the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dagger Posted September 22, 2003 Share Posted September 22, 2003 As I posted here last week, I had lunch with a Martin confidante - a member of his hierarchy - and Collenette is toast, certainly as transport minister. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seeker Posted September 22, 2003 Share Posted September 22, 2003 Amen! Something to look forward to at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrench Posted September 23, 2003 Share Posted September 23, 2003 Lunch!! You are connected. I got my info while I was cutting my lawn. Next time I'll go for the Lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dagger Posted September 23, 2003 Share Posted September 23, 2003 And I didn't pay either! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fester Posted September 23, 2003 Share Posted September 23, 2003 I have no axe to grind. I do not work for Bombardier nor do I need a flying job. I was observing that you want an operation in YTZ to fail because you like the waterfront. It's good to enjoy nature. Just got back from kiteboarding myself. It just looks like you are building a case agianst Deluce because you don't like their base of operations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dagger Posted September 23, 2003 Share Posted September 23, 2003 I don't like the island airport. I can tolerate it as is, but I shudder at the thought of it being significantly busier. I am not hoping for Deluce to fail... I am hoping for the venture to be aborted for lack of a bridge. The fact that Toronto Island Airport has not fulfilled a larger mandate has not held back the development of the city. Nor would its disappearance. But Toronto's waterfront is a mark of its vitaility, liveability and self-respect. Turning the airport into parkland would be a far more useful contribution of green space than the proposed mega-park at Downsview which David Collenette has unveiled at least three or four times now over the past decade. Toronto Centre Island is widely used, and expanding it westward on to the airport property would only enhance its appeal and its popularity. When you talk about a city at the service of its community, the islands are a major plus. The islands could be our version of Central Park or Hyde Park with just a little bit of vision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest JC Posted September 23, 2003 Share Posted September 23, 2003 Hi Dagger, "Air Ontario is still flying out of there" Oops. did you mean Jazz? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dagger Posted September 23, 2003 Share Posted September 23, 2003 Shows you when I last flew from the Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Max Continuous Posted September 23, 2003 Share Posted September 23, 2003 >> Collenette is toast, certainly as transport minister.<< I heard that he was being made special ambassador to Somalia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest skyfox Posted September 23, 2003 Share Posted September 23, 2003 OK...back to reality. Anyone know where we can send our CV for the new DeLuce airline??. The Dash 8 400 is a NICE plane to fly. Don't be fooled by the props! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest AME Posted September 23, 2003 Share Posted September 23, 2003 "And I didn't pay either! " I'd almost be willing to bet you did (it was probably expensed ) It's nice to see someone get a little tax dollars back even if it's just a free lunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shockwave Posted September 23, 2003 Share Posted September 23, 2003 Lest we forget that Paul Martin the shipping guru that avoids paying Canadian taxes is the same man that introduced the "security tax" oops i meant the "security charge" in his last budget as finance minister. Another nail in your coffin and mine my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dagger Posted September 23, 2003 Share Posted September 23, 2003 except that I didn't eat with a mandarin, someone outside the government. So I didn't even recoup any of my taxes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrench Posted September 23, 2003 Share Posted September 23, 2003 Thats why I get my political info while cutting the lawn. CCAA won't let me take anyone out for lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest citiflyer Posted September 23, 2003 Share Posted September 23, 2003 1.My point is the numbers are attainable easily, if City Ex can get to 400,000 pax with poor facilities and a small fleet of aircraft, Deluce can attain his projected numbers. 2. LCY has shown the potential for downtown airports, passengers deserve better than Peasrson it is a terrible place to fly out of. 3.MDW is a lot closer to downtown than ORD is. 4. There will be years before there is a rail link to Pearson if ever. Collenette has called for an RFP ONLY and most estimates put it at 100's of millions to build and probably wont make any money. BTW, if you think building a bridge over 300 feet of open water is controversial, try putting 30 km's of track through the back yards and over the heads of about 30,000 residents, IT wont happen! 5.Toronto needs another airport. After 4.4 billion has been spent on Pearson, there are only an additional 6 gates. Planners put Pearson at capacity by about 2005. This monstrous price tag will have to be passed on to passengers flying out of Pearson by bankrupt Air Canada. 6. The catchment area for YTZ is everything east of Mississauga and Pearson has no public transit and wont have any for the forseeable future. Ac is close to complete bankruptcy, only vulture funds are looking at investing for the break up opurtunities. The spectre of the AC ticket agent screaming at passengers on TV last August has investors lining up to invest in other carriers. Toronto and Canada needs alternatives to AC, it is not an option any more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitch Cronin Posted September 23, 2003 Share Posted September 23, 2003 Re: "Toronto needs another airport" There's thousands who'll disagree with that, but many who agree as well... The size of the Island airport would seem to restrict it's use somewhat, and an awful lot of folks will forever object to allowing jets to use it. Perhaps that explains the GTAA's intent with the Pickering expropriated lands. Expropriated for an airport back in 1975 and larger in area than Pearson. Just a few minutes drive east and slightly north of the city (30 minutes to downtown via the 407 and 404), it's probably closer than Pearson to anyone east of Young st., and there's millions in that "catchment area"... Mind you, there's only fields and old farms there at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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