Guest James Posted September 28, 2003 Share Posted September 28, 2003 Looks like the old hometown is going to get a visit from Juan this evening. Here's a neat website to follow the happenings. Batten down the hatches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest M. McRae Posted September 28, 2003 Share Posted September 28, 2003 And for those who want the Canadian site, http://www.atl.ec.gc.ca/weather/hurricane/cbulletin.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MikePapaKilo Posted September 28, 2003 Share Posted September 28, 2003 Here's the guess-cast: TAF CYHZ 281733Z 281818 13015G25KT P6SM OVC012 TEMPO 1823 5SM BR OVC006 FM2300Z 12025G35KT 3SM BR OVC006 TEMPO 2301 6SM RA BR OVC010 BECMG 2301 12035G50KT FM0100Z 13045G55KT 1SM +RA BR SCT002 OVC006 PROB40 0106 1SM +TSRA BR OVC002CB BECMG 0204 16030G50KT BECMG 0406 17025G40KT FM0800Z 20020G30KT 1/2SM -SHRA FG VV002 FM1300Z 17020G30KT 2SM -SHRA BR OVC004 The surfing at Lawrencetown should be good. ;-) MPK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seeker Posted September 28, 2003 Share Posted September 28, 2003 They keep revising the forecast wind downward. This morning it was to be 75 knots then became 65 and now only forecast 55 - what's up with that? 55 knots is hardly a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jazz Monkey Posted September 28, 2003 Share Posted September 28, 2003 I use a program called "Global Tracks 2003" for tracking. It displays a map based on your home location with a storm track plot and associated forecasts and colored wind bands. It updates itself every ten minutes (or whatever you set) with data from several government sites. I'm quite new at using it but it seems to have lots of info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jazz Monkey Posted September 28, 2003 Share Posted September 28, 2003 OK, here is the overview of what this program does: Overview Global Tracks is a world-wide hurricane and typhoon tracking program for Windows. Global Tracks can ingest forecast advisories from the following agencies and display them graphically on a user defined map. Global Tracks also has a historical database for different regions around the world. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. https://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html. The JTWC area of coverage is west of 180 longitude to include the Southern Hemisphere. The Naval Pacific Meteorology and Oceanography Center (NPMOC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.https://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html The NPMOC area of coverage is east of 180 longitude. Since this area is also covered by the CPHC, and the NHC, NPMOC’s advisories are based on the NHC and CPHC data. The Naval Atlantic Meteorology and Oceanography Center (NLMOC), located at Norfolk Virginia. https://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/. The NLMOC area of coverage is the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico. Since the National Hurricane Center also covers this area, NLMOC’s forecast advisories are based on the NHC advisory. The National Hurricane Center (NHC), located in Miami Florida. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov. The NHC area of coverage is the Atlantic, Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and the Eastern Pacific Ocean westward to 140 longitude. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), located in Honolulu Hawaii.http://www.nws.noaa.gov/pr/hnl/cphc/pages/cphc.shtml CPHC area of coverage is in the Central Pacific Ocean from 140 degrees longitude. Due to the coverage of these agencies, Global Tracks is able to display tropical cyclones virtually anywhere in the world. At this time, Global Tracks does not graphically display warnings or advisories from any other agency to include JMA (Japan),KMA (Korea), BOM (Australia), or PAGA (Philippines). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kip Powick Posted September 28, 2003 Share Posted September 28, 2003 Of the 5 links in your post, I was only able to get one to work.....could be me...could be you...please proof before posting...Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MikePapaKilo Posted September 28, 2003 Share Posted September 28, 2003 KIp: I cannot open those links either. Bad Gateway messages up the wazoo. Um... We'll let you know when "it's just you" Cheers ! MPK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jazz Monkey Posted September 29, 2003 Share Posted September 29, 2003 OK, sorry for the links as I did not test them. I just copy & pasted from the web page for the software. The strike probability states that there is a 45% chance that the center of the hurricane will pass within 65nm of Halifax. Anyhow, the latest public advisory is: 000 WTNT35 KNHC 282028 TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE JUAN ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST SUN SEP 28 2003 ...JUAN MOVING FASTER TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA... RAIN AND WIND WARNINGS CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR NOVA SCOTIA. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR THE NOVA SCOTIA MARINE AREAS. AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JUAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST OR ABOUT 240 MILES...385 KM...SOUTH OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. JUAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND A CONTINUED NORTHWARD MOTION WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...JUAN WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA IN A FEW HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS JUAN MOVES OVER COLDER WATERS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...JUAN IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE OF HURRICANE INTENSITY WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES. SOME STORM SURGE FLOODING IN EXCESS OF 3 FT...OR 1 METER...MAY OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. JUAN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...41.2 N... 64.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 973 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER PASCH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jazz Monkey Posted September 29, 2003 Share Posted September 29, 2003 Here is the link for their web site: http://www.jincsolutions.com/home.asp# Just click "Products" and select "Global Tracks". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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