Wolfhunter

The little ones hurt too.

LOL, glad I'm retired.... and so are the pigeons. BZ to fast air and and all those who serve in CSAR. Cheers

I’m not a fighter guy by any means…. but, for me to agree with your position, I would have to be willing to part with intercept, airborne interdiction, close air support, tactical support of maritime operations, NORAD participation and an FOB presence in arctic sovereignty. I’m just not there yet. I have a brake line flange kit I haven't used in years but I needed it last week. The navy thought the days of shore bombardment were all over until Libya. The Air Force thought the days of heavy lift helicopters were over until Afghanistan and the army said the same thing about tanks until they had to rent them from Germany. If you have no shore bombardment, no CAS, no attack helicopter support, no AC130s (send me an angel) and no armed drones all at the same time, you might as well confiscate the satcom radio too, who would I call? Knowing there is a pair of fighters on alert 5 and being able to talk to them can be comforting. On the plus side, I could just eat the pigeons.

That's exactly what is happening, hence the title of the thread. Perversely, as DEFCON has observed above, some operators are now actually paying more for what they are getting than what they are getting is worth when compared to what they previously got at the same price... cool eh? That's the nature of the spiral, no doubt these operators believe they have effectively been raising pilot wages by paying the same salary for less experience. But beware the vortex, that’s exactly the mindset that got us here in the first place and stands as the reason others have taken your advice and moved on. You end up eliminating the very people you need as a short term stop loss effort.... they go truck driving. If the RCAF model holds true, what starts as a FO supply side problem quickly becomes a Capt retention problem as mentors become a thing of value across the board (as experience levels plummet) and operators who previously scoffed at the idea compete for their affections. The noose begins to tighten as soon as the retention side falters (by pilfering or demographics) and you find yourself with low experience FOs that you can't use because none of them are upgradeable. All of your experience is then thrown into operations and this causes the supply side crash at the exact time you thought you had too many FOs (that you couldn't use anyway). At that point, you can't out train the deficit. I wasn't sure I would get to watch it a second time but I think it's coming.

Nurses are paid for the entire shift whether you see them or not; if they were only paid when they had surgical gloves on, they would be working at the vets office. How easy is this, a child in grade 4 with a hand held calculator can figure it out... Take a red seal welder who moves to Alberta and offer him apprentice wages, you will find him driving haul trucks for more money. Good Lord, where did the MBA crew get their MBAs, people act as if a pilot shortage is mysterious in some way, there was no other possible outcome. Same with the RCAF who actually are experiencing a shortage that they can't out train, the civilian world will get there pretty quick too. You are already poaching instructors for operational flying and need to look at other options like retirees. I have a class4 instructor rating but it's simply not worth the bother to renew it.... the reason I stop is the same reason I don't start which begs a simple MBA question, is lock point sustainable? Raise the nose and you stall, lower the nose and and you crash. MBA physics question... in the aerodynamic lock point scenario (from above), If the ground rises faster than wages what do you think will happen? Ya, I know, your first thought was blasting crews ahead of the flight path right? In practice, your scenario looks something like this but arrival at the crash site will take a bit longer...

Cool, DEC will work just fine then; how will they feel about Ramjet doing that? But since you asked, yes, that's my premiss. Bottom of the pay scale means doing something else.... and that's just A OK with me now. If the industry is happy, who am I to mess with happy campers. BTW, Red Seal tradesmen mostly think we're crazy... none that I have run this by would go back to apprentice wages or suggest it as a reasonable idea in the event of a move. They would do something else if it paid better.... and just like that, poof, we're short of experienced multi ticket welders because they're driving Haul Trucks.

From my perspective, you are taking it a bit further than need be. I certainly can't speak for expats but submit many just feel too young to retire and are willing to start at the bottom of the seniority list but not at the bottom of the pay scale.That is the issue... at least it stands as my issue anyway. I get the seniority thing and that's not where I (personally) have a quarrel with the present system. Losing these guys to dump trucks and excavators seems unreasonable to me from an industry perspective, especially now.

I don’t see that as an issue. In terms of experienced drivers though, more than a few go to waste at the very time they might be of value as operators and mentors. Retired RCAF pilots at the age of 55 ish, expats returning from long term over seas jobs, and others who have found their circumstances require a change sometimes move on to other jobs and discover operating an excavator is actually fun and pays better than starting over. It doesn't seem like good value or wise use of a resource, in fact, it seems like a net loss to an industry that might stand to benefit from grey hair for a few years as it sorts itself out. It’s not a seniority issue (at least for me) it’s simply a pay issue. Not sour grapes either, I wouldn't go back now but know others who would (or might). Some are just too young to want retirement and too old to want to start over at apprenticeship wages... all are a loss to the industry. Always fun explaining this to tradesmen at a job site over lunch....

As always, I am willing to support the wishes of the majority and only ask that they have the courtesy to continue to want what they say they want after they get what they want… a tall order because simple choices do not imply easy and interoperability with allies is worthy of consideration here as well lest you end up with a fleet of paper weights. There are lots of capabilities that could meet your level of scrutiny. ASW is a perishable skill to be sure, do we need to absorb the cost of maintaining that? Ya, separate thread, less costly, but no less topical IMO as it has fleet replacement overtones and navel implications as well. As would the loss of tactical support in maritime operations. In any case, I will vote against you and the chips will fall where they may. Cheers

Although a bit dated now and not a fighter guy, it seems to me that the Liberals changed the daily availability requirements to demand meeting both NORAD and NATO commitments at the same time . Presto… instant capability deficit requiring “immediate action.” Then they used that requirement to delay the acquisition of new aircraft via the need for a capability bridging effort. Like the gun debate statistics, it was totally manufactured IMO. Regardless, the costs involved with bridging a short term capability gap almost always exceeds its own value in the context of military procurement as does incremental updates to existing equipment over extended periods.They didn't understand that aspect of it nor did they get the full impact of the manpower situation. The pilot shortage is a separate but contributing issue here and it was largely self inflicted. The RCAF can no longer train itself out of the pilot deficit which IMO is the real definition of a pilot shortage. Lunacy is exactly the right word. The next step in lunacy is coming to the conclusion that an air force doesn't need fighters. After that everything gets easy because armies don't need guns and navies don't need ships and divers can just be trained to hold their breath.Remember when we didn't need tanks and we didn't need Chinooks? When I first joined the infantry, we had to shout bang bang, during small section tactics and CQB due to a shortage of blank rounds. Lunacy tends to be circular and easily repeatable.

My definition of a pilot shortage has remained unchanged,....it exists when you lack the resources to train yourself out of the deficit and operational tempo suffers as a result. Mostly, at least in military circles, it boils down to simple arithmetic and time appreciation. I don't imagine the civilian world is much different.... maybe bigger and more costly to fix but just as easy to predict as is the quest for solutions through automation. It's simply become one of those self inflicted "what did you think was going to happen" scenarios IMO with no other possible outcome. Rich - Agreed, I don't think we are quite there yet either and for the same reason. It seems your Canadian experience here mirrors my own. Had I been willing to pay for my own type rating, the jobs would have been there.... and thats both in the Helo and FW world with helicopter type ratings being the most costly. I attribute much of it to the easy access to TFWs, this served only to render my experience less valuable than the type rating itself. A long time ago, I used to say hey, I meet the minimum requirements, I have a type rating, I’m young and keen and I’ll do a good job for you. The response was always the same…. hey, I can get guys with 10,000 hours. Fast forward to now and I'm saying hey, I have 10,000 hours and just need a type rating. The response is, I can get young keen guys with a type rating that meet the minimum requirements or bring in a TFW. The government is complicit here as well, as an operator, you only need to place a bogus ad requiring the type rating... presto, no qualified Canadian pilots. Your dump truck and a hearty "welcome back" from Revenue Canada awaits.

I thought about dusting off my Instructor rating but that’s my issue as well. The RCAF is further along the (no one to teach) trail than the commercial industry and there are lessons here that I'm sure will go unheeded. I have long maintained that a shortage doesn’t really exist yet… I’ve been waiting for a point when instructors are viewed as experienced pilots and snapped up in a vain effort to meet operational requirements. When this happens you will know a shortage exists and wages alone simply won't fix it. The looming retirement demographic awaits... The thought of MBA guys dancing naked on roof tops praying for a down turn should scare all of us.

"He says it's not a money issue, because the pilots who left Air North had to take pay cuts with their new jobs." Those online MBA programs aren't helping either...

I don’t get nervous until AFTER the cavalry charge…

Nope, bus drivers have a higher starting salary. seeker - It’s not altruistic, in my view a 55 (ish) year old expat Capt retuning to Canada might find himself in the situation I’m talking about… that’s assuming he still wanted to fly for 4 or 5 years at home. So, the question is would he? If, after looking at the options, the answer is no then the question is why? I think we know the answer. Given the available options, he’s more likely to do something for fun… excavators are fun. Towing gliders for Cadets is fun too. 8 legs a day as a DH8 FO for 34K doesn’t tick the box unless he wanted to relive his youth. That said, he and I would both do that if we were 20 and working our way up. In the face of hysterical ravings about pilot shortages though, I’m simply pointing out that he is as “up” as he ever will be and may be of some value to a company willing to reward his experience by not paying him an entry level salary... treat him like a bus driver and he might work for you. I think this may be slowly changing and some DEC positions are out and around... I simply haven't stayed on top of it. Cheers

That has long been the MBA and HR position. How many experienced red seal welders would work for entry level wages simply because they changed companies or moved to a new town. There would be a shortage of welders just like there is a shortage of pilots. They would drive trucks. The entry level wage thing is just because they can. And, they can until they can't. When they can't anymore, I may crack the books... but not before. So, I’m not paying for my own type training, I’m not paying to fly, I’m not flying for minimum wage, I'm not working on the ramp, and I’m not signing a training bond... I actually like the roar of diesel engines. Flying is a job and for too long employers have abused those “following the dream.” I’m simply not going back to an entry level wage and I know lots of veteran pilots who won't either. So, fix it or enjoy the shortage. This has nothing at all to do with being happy in a job... Doctors in Cuba work in the resorts as bar tenders for the same reason and they seem to enjoy it.

I fully understand that sentiment and used to share it. But, I’ve had more exposure to UAV/UAS than I ever wanted to admit to. Now that the skill fade era is upon us, I mostly drive. Then again, I’m the sort of person who will drive a motorcycle to Mexico just for coffee. What do you say to the notion that a simple overshoot and VFR circuit at night has become a potential life extinguishing event and a hand flown raw data ILS to minimums followed by a stable transition to landing is now beyond the skill set of most, especially overseas. I don’t mean that to sound alarmist, I briefly worked as a TRI/TRE with mostly foreign students and was dismayed…

While I'm not an MBA guy, I don’t subscribe to the notion that the only way to maintain salaries at the point they should be is by creating or sustaining a shortage of labour. There is a balance to all things, but when experienced pilots are driving trucks and operating excavators, and, at the same time, employers are screaming shortage and LMO’s are flying off the shelf, there is a systemic problem that creates a vacuum of sorts. Nature and DJT will find a way to fill it… eventually.

They wouldn't be cheap, they wouldn't be temporary and after a short period of time, they wouldn't be foreign either. I think that's the point of a green card. It's not for everyone but I bet lots of folks would jump at it. I would!

My goodness, why would they do that? And, even if they did, it would likely have the same efficacy as Canadian helicopter pilots lamenting about TFWs. I've previously sent my resume off to the federal government attached to bogus job adds that seek only to obtain a LMO... all to no avail.

As I understand the process, offering Green Cards to skilled professionals doesn't imply any notion of reciprocity.

You are absolutely right… and the cause factors are numerous; taken together they could potentially lead to a perfect storm. My point in all of this is/was and continues to be that it was easily predictable and is easily fixed. In a few years time, the only thing that will save the day is an economic downturn. Military planners are already praying for this to happen… they see it as a pilot retention initiative. Here is a simple employment elasticity question that airline MBA’s frequently get wrong: Doctors in Cuba aspire to be bartenders in Cuban resorts because: A. They like wearing bowties; B. The rum is free; C. It’s a shorter commute to work; D. They make more money

You will find more like minded company than you probably think. I could staff an entire Capt course with a few phone calls.

That would be phase two of the pending supply side malaise which will start if/when green cards become available to experienced pilots. In the near future, I expect that experience will be seen (by the MBA crew) as a valuable cost saver when viewed through the lens of inexperienced FOs paired with inexperienced Capts… something they have not had to deal with yet. When you can’t retain instructors (because they are seen as experienced) it’s a clue that the time is near at hand. The operators who created this will begin poaching each others experience and training backlogs (and costs) will soar at the very time that training availability is most needed to save themselves from future pain. The supply side will not be able to keep up and wages will cease to be the issue as 100% of available resources will not be sufficient to match the operational tempo. This has been discussed right here at length before, it only needs the right circumstances. It is currently the bane of military personnel managers everywhere and It’s easy to envision a scenario where only an economic slow down will save them from themselves. All of it self inflicted and all of it unnecessary. The best part is there is still enough time to buy enough time to limit the pain... I bet they won't though.

The Air Force (at least ours) has a bit of trouble getting out of its own way. When I left, I made it very clear I was happy to return until CRA ( age 60) given a firm OTU date and 45 mins notice. Left my number, flying suit in the closet... no calls. There is a weak link at the Sqn Cmdr level. By that I mean, they need to understand that pilots are retained one at a time but are lost two and three at a time in a concept I call "POOF". Here's what I mean: Capt X: Currently in an extended ground tour and counting the days and minutes until his OTU date. He is six years from CRA and a veteran. Multi tour, multi discipline... the type of experience you can only grow at great cost to the RCAF. Wants nothing more than to step out of an airplane on his 60th birthday and play golf. Capt Y: Finishing up his third flying tour and wants to be an OTU instructor. A pilots pilot, good hands and good situational awareness. The sort of guy you simply can't afford to lose. Word is, he will bolt if sentenced to a ground job. Capt Z: Smart guy... engineering degree from RMC and working on his masters. One of those pilots who lacks situational awareness... he can fly, he can coordinate the battle space, but simply can't do both at the same time. Major lapses has caused his inability to upgrade on two previous tours. Very happy to work ground jobs and excels at planning, CAOC and staff duties. Lacks confidence and doesn't want to fly any more. So what to do... If you retired as a Major or above, you already know what happened. Capt Z's CO was of the mind that pilots fly, and by God, that's what this guy is going to do. He is bumped into Capt X's OTU slot and Capt X is delayed (and extended in place) for a year. Capt X pulls his 30 day notice card and hits the golf course early. Capt Y is drafted to fill Capt X's ground job which is now vacant. He has had three tours in row... time to pull his weight right? Capt Y puts in his release and six months later steps into another airplane... it doesn't say RCAF on the side of it. Capt Z is unhappy and stressed in the new flying job. He hates it, his wife hates it and his kids want their Dad back. He takes his release and goes to work as an engineer. POOF... PS. Don't waste band width telling me about the "exigency of the service". I'm part of the POOF concept and it was easily avoided.