Wolfhunter

That would be phase two of the pending supply side malaise which will start if/when green cards become available to experienced pilots. In the near future, I expect that experience will be seen (by the MBA crew) as a valuable cost saver when viewed through the lens of inexperienced FOs paired with inexperienced Capts… something they have not had to deal with yet. When you can’t retain instructors (because they are seen as experienced) it’s a clue that the time is near at hand. The operators who created this will begin poaching each others experience and training backlogs (and costs) will soar at the very time that training availability is most needed to save themselves from future pain. The supply side will not be able to keep up and wages will cease to be the issue as 100% of available resources will not be sufficient to match the operational tempo. This has been discussed right here at length before, it only needs the right circumstances. It is currently the bane of military personnel managers everywhere and It’s easy to envision a scenario where only an economic slow down will save them from themselves. All of it self inflicted and all of it unnecessary. The best part is there is still enough time to buy enough time to limit the pain... I bet they won't though.

The Air Force (at least ours) has a bit of trouble getting out of its own way. When I left, I made it very clear I was happy to return until CRA ( age 60) given a firm OTU date and 45 mins notice. Left my number, flying suit in the closet... no calls. There is a weak link at the Sqn Cmdr level. By that I mean, they need to understand that pilots are retained one at a time but are lost two and three at a time in a concept I call "POOF". Here's what I mean: Capt X: Currently in an extended ground tour and counting the days and minutes until his OTU date. He is six years from CRA and a veteran. Multi tour, multi discipline... the type of experience you can only grow at great cost to the RCAF. Wants nothing more than to step out of an airplane on his 60th birthday and play golf. Capt Y: Finishing up his third flying tour and wants to be an OTU instructor. A pilots pilot, good hands and good situational awareness. The sort of guy you simply can't afford to lose. Word is, he will bolt if sentenced to a ground job. Capt Z: Smart guy... engineering degree from RMC and working on his masters. One of those pilots who lacks situational awareness... he can fly, he can coordinate the battle space, but simply can't do both at the same time. Major lapses has caused his inability to upgrade on two previous tours. Very happy to work ground jobs and excels at planning, CAOC and staff duties. Lacks confidence and doesn't want to fly any more. So what to do... If you retired as a Major or above, you already know what happened. Capt Z's CO was of the mind that pilots fly, and by God, that's what this guy is going to do. He is bumped into Capt X's OTU slot and Capt X is delayed (and extended in place) for a year. Capt X pulls his 30 day notice card and hits the golf course early. Capt Y is drafted to fill Capt X's ground job which is now vacant. He has had three tours in row... time to pull his weight right? Capt Y puts in his release and six months later steps into another airplane... it doesn't say RCAF on the side of it. Capt Z is unhappy and stressed in the new flying job. He hates it, his wife hates it and his kids want their Dad back. He takes his release and goes to work as an engineer. POOF... PS. Don't waste band width telling me about the "exigency of the service". I'm part of the POOF concept and it was easily avoided.

It was this post... Yes or no?

I would even take it a step further, the lack of a current PPC is a deal killer… on 3 occasions it has been for me anyway. In other words, you have the job if you’re willing to spring for the cost of proficiency based sim training leading to a fresh PPC. So rudder, pilot yes or pilot no? If pilot yes you have a different windshield than me... same cockpit as Zan Vetter perhaps? Or, after 25 years or so, do you expect a bit more than rent money. Everyones circumstances are different I guess, for me, ya gots to beat the truck driver thing.

He doesn’t have pilots either…

As a final thought, I believe the notion of a shortage is (at present) simply a tool for extracting regulatory concessions. As an aside, my favourite is the deceitful way some companies use (or have used) bogus ads to obtain an LMO and pounce on the TFW thing… yes, we all know who you are and we know that pony is starting to stagger. The poor brute is sweating and panting largely due to letter writing campaigns to the minister by unemployed pilots (he has my resume with your ad and LMO application attached). Imagine a world where airline executives (with 25 years experience) making a lateral move are reduced in salary to $32-$35K… poof, instant shortage of executives. In the long run, I guess there will be a “new entry” shortage but for now, the people who can save you are not interested in being abused and have looked/are looking elsewhere. As the army is fond of saying, “move now over”.

I wonder how the MBA crew will explain all this to their masters. Personally, I won’t crack a book for less than $60K and I have the luxury of not having to. I miss the fun of flying (a bit) but could make it up with the Air Cadet program and will likely do that next year. I came up through that system, think it’s a great program and would happily do it pro bono.

I thought this was cute... So, you want to be an Airline Pilot? I walked into the interview with a great deal of confidence and enthusiasm. Flying airplanes was my one true passion in this life. This was my big chance to merge my occupation with my love. I would become an airline pilot.“So you want to be an airline pilot?” the interviewer inquired.“Yes, sir, more than anything else I have ever wanted,” I replied, realizing I sounded like an anxious adolescent.“Well, great, welcome aboard,” the airline executive said.“You mean I’m hired?!” I cheered.“You bet, we’re glad to have you. Actually, we’ve had trouble finding good pilots to hire,” the exec explained. If I was surprised, it was overshadowed by my joy of reaching my dream.“Let’s just go over a few points before you sign on the dotted line,” the company man chortled. “We’re going to send you to the world’s most renowned medical center. They’ll spend two days probing your body orifices, draining and analyzing your blood, and administering psychological exams.They’ll literally take you apart and put you back together. If they find any hint of current or future problems, you’re fired and can find your own ride home.”“Gee, I think my health is OK,” I nervously choked out. The manager went on, “Good, next we’ll evaluate your flying skills in an aircraft you’ve never been in before. “If we don’t like the way you perform, you’re fired,”I was confident with my flying, but this guy was making me nervous.He continued, “Next, if you’re still here, we’ll run you through our training program. If during any time in the next 10 years you decide to leave the company, you’ll have to reimburse us $20,000, or we’ll sue you. Also if you fail to measure up during training, you’re fired.”The man who had just given me my dream job listed still more hurdles.“Each time, before we allow you near one of our multimillion dollar aircraft we’ll X-ray your flight bag and luggage, because we don’t trust you. Also we’ll ask you to pass through a magnetometer each time. If you fail to do so, you’ll be arrested and jailed.” “When you’ve completed your flight, we’ll have you provide a urine sample, because we don’t trust you to not take drugs. Very soon, we plan to take a blood sample to look for more drugs. “Also if you ever fly with another crew member who may have used drugs or alcohol, you must report to us immediately. If you fail to notice that anyone has used these substances, you’ll be fired, have your license to fly revoked, and be fined $10,000.” Our airline flies to many nice cities. Paris, London, Fort Lauderdale, San Diego. You will never get to layover in any of these places until you have 39 years seniority. You will be spending all you time in Newark, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh. If you do get a nice trip, some guy from the training department will take it from you at the last minute. Then we will stick you back on reserve and you will be laying over in Newark“Every six months, we want you to go back to the medical center for another exam. If they ever find a hint of a problem, your license to fly will be revoked and we’ll fire you. Anytime you see a medical person, you must tell us about it so we can see if you need to be grounded and terminated.Every six months you will be called in on your days off to play “You Bet Your Job”. You will be paired with another pilot who has never flown in the continental United States. The briefing will start at midnight and you will get in the simulator at 02:00. The simulator will fly like a car with bald tires on slick ice. The simulator will break several times during you tests and require the sleepy repairman several hours to fix while you drink stale coffee from a machine. If you fail any of these tests you will be fired.Also, we need to examine your driving record, and you must tell us if you have even any minor infractions so we can remove you from the cockpit as soon as possible.”“At any time, without notice, a special branch of the government will send one of its inspectors to ride in your aircraft. The inspector will demand to see your papers and license; if your papers are not in order, you’ll be removed, fined, terminated, and possibly jailed.”“If at any time you make an error in judgment or an honest human mistake, you will be terminated, be fined tens of thousands of dollars, and be dragged through months of court proceedings. The government will make sure you never fly again for any airline.”Several times during the year the FAA will come up with some sort of extra class you have to attend. Security, where we learn to spot guys with diapers on their heads in pilots uniforms. Winter ops, where we learn to not take off with two feet of snow on the wings. Crew Resource Management, where we learn to be sensitive to every one’s feelings. Conflict resolution, where we learn we can’t throw someone off the plane just because they smell like Bin Laden after a year in a cave or because they are screaming obscenities. These classes will all be taken on you days off.“You will be well out of town most holidays, weekends, and family events—half our pilots are always on the job at any point in time Smiling an evil smile now, the airline hirer went on. “Oh, and one last thing to cover. Occasionally, we in management fail to see a trend and screw up royally or the country’s economy falls flat on it’s face. If as a result of one of those events the corporation begins to lose money, you as an employee will be expected to make up the losses from your paycheck. Of course, management will not be held to the same standard.Oh, and one last thing—if we negotiate pay and work rule concessions from you in the in exchange for a better pension plan, we probably won’t fund that pension plan agreement (unlike the management pension plan and golden parachutes) and will likely have yanked it away from you.” “Now sign here,” he pointed, grinning as he handed me a pen.I faked a sudden nosebleed. Holding my head back and pinching my nostrils, I hurried from his office. When I got to the hall, I began to run. I ran all the way to my car. I figured if I hurried I could still get to the county vocational school before 5:00 and enroll in the industrial welding career program!!

Cool, thanks for the update folks. Perhaps in the near future a bunch of us will be parking the trucks... would have been happy to do it sooner!

I ran into this letter a while ago. If memory serves, it was in the comments section of an online article about the pilot shortage...it was in response to another contributor. I don't agree with all the points but offer it for what it may be worth. Personally, I find the TFW situation the hardest to swallow. Companies produce bogus job ads in order to obtain a Labour Market Opinion (LMO) so they can import foreign pilots. The ads are bogus in the sense that the company has no intention of hiring you (or me). They are used solely to justify a "shortage" of type rated pilots and obtain an LMO. In fact, in many cases, the foreign pilots are contracted prior to the ads even hitting the street. By the time this is all sorted out (and it will be) many seasoned pilots will have "moved on" and there will be a real shortage/experience gap. At present (as I see it) there is simply a shortage of guys willing to work for entry level wages... not to be confused with a shortage of pilots. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I happen to be one of those highly experienced former airline captains who've flown all over the world and can't get a job in the USA for much over $20K per year so I just gave up. I now run my own business and fly recreational. Basically I retired with 20 years left on a career and profession that literally is not worth my time. You, like most pilots in America, missed the larger issue here. An airline captain is one of the only professions I know of where it is impossible for a highly experienced professional to make a lateral job move where his or her experience is relevant. No matter how much experience, qualifications and expertise a pilot has, he or she must start as an entry level co pilot at entry level wages whenever competing for a new job. This is universally true in the United States Airline industry. An unemployed airline pilot must start his or her career all over at the bottom. This is an artificial limitation imposed by the airlines and the unions which effectively bypasses the free market forces of supply and demand and takes away the natural protections that it provides. An airline pilot cannot compete for pay and working conditions with the threat of working for the competition as almost any other professional employee can do. Mediocrity has become the goal. The unions for a long time have clung to their own myths. The seniority system and union protection does not protect pilots from managerial pressure any better than the threat of those pilots leaving for the competition would under a free job market. The only way pay will improve in this industry is to remove these artificial limitations and allow the free market to work as it does so well in other industries. Let the best companies compete for the best and most qualified pilots with the best pay and benefits in real time. This is the only way to force a level playing field.

X2… It’s that simple (and maybe that complicated); no mystery at all. You might be surprised at how many seasoned pilots are doing “other stuff” while employers moan about the shortage.

Here are a few excerpts from "another forum". Many thanks to the individuals working hard on this issue. You know who you are (and so do we). I received in the mail this morning this file from ESDC. I contains all LMO applications made by Canadian aircraft operators for importing Temporary Foreign Worker Pilots in 2013. Because I made the application in late Oct 2013, the applications received after that date by ESDC in 2013 do not appear. (They inserted a few applications from before 2013 by mistake on the CD, so check the date and just ignore those) In essence, several commercial operators, aircraft manufacturers, private operators, Training outfits, and the the Royal Canadian Air Force applied for hundreds of foreign pilots in 2013. There are a bunch of Helicopter Operators that imported helicopter pilots Many crop dusting outfits imported crop dusting pilots. CAE imported instructors The RCAF imported British pilots Sky Regional imported an Embraer 195 instructor (no 195 instructors in Canada I guess) We are even importing low time instructors and bush pilots..... It's time that Canadian pilots stood up for their rights and defended their jobs. For every TFW pilot admitted into Canada, one Canadian pilot was denied a job that was rightfully theirs....... You can view the file yourselves.......... https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/105 ... 202013.pdf Canadian Armed Forces : Now here is a good one. Sunwing and Canjet claim they cannot hire Canadian experienced aircraft captains because they lack a type rating, but the RCAF uses the exact opposite claim to justify hiring this highly experienced RAF NIMROD pilot who does not have a CP-140 qualification, but has many hours doing his job of Maritime surveillance. With "Minimal Training" he can be trained on the CP-140. I would tend to agree.

I guess there are as many opinions about this as there are pilots and airline executives. Wish I was smart enough to offer a constructive solution; alas, I don't have one. I can't help but think that the "shortages" are mostly on the supply and end state of the equation. On the supply side, there is, and will continue to be, a shortage of young people willing to invest $65-70K to qualify for a job that pays $25-30K. At the end state, there is, and will continue to be, a shortage of unemployed veteran pilots willing to work for supply side wages when they can drive a truck for 2 - 3 times the salary. That's where I am now. In my view, both pilots and airlines played out their respective roles... largely inflicting this situation on themselves. The RCAF is bleeding out from self inflicted wounds as well and needs professional HR people much more than RAF retreads. I didn't realize it at the time but I have already logged my last flight. Very sad indeed; I would have liked to savour the moment.