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A leaderless party is ahead in the current pole 04/27/2022

Conservatives open 'statistically significant' lead over Liberals: Nanos poll

The Conservative Party of Canada has opened up a "statistically significant" lead over the governing Liberals, the latest polling from Nanos Research shows.

As of April 22, support for the Conservatives increased 4.3 percentage points over four weeks to 35.6 per cent, overtaking the Liberals whose support dropped 2.2 percentage points to 30 per cent.

The New Democrats also saw their support drop by two percentage points to 19.6 per cent. Support for the Green Party inched up 0.7 percentage points to 5.5 per cent, while dropping 0.5 and 0.2 percentage points respectively for the Bloc Quebecois (5.4 per cent) and People's Party (3.4 per cent).

"But the key takeaway here is that the Conservatives are opening up a lead that is statistically significant. It's outside of the margin of error," pollster Nik Nanos said Wednesday on the Trend Line podcast.

Nanos said he has not seen numbers like these for the Conservatives since Erin O'Toole was leader of the party.

The Conservatives are currently in the process of choosing a new leader, with the deadline to submit the required $300,000 registration fee and 500 party member signatures set for this Friday.

Nano said parties without leaders can become more popular than those with leaders, since there is no one at the helm for Canadians to be "repulsed by."

Meanwhile, the weaker poll numbers represent a "complete dead cat bounce" for the Liberals and NDP, Nanos said.

Last month, both parties agreed to enter into an arrangement that would see the NDP support the minority Liberals until 2025, in exchange for agreeing to prioritize certain policy issues such as dental care and housing.

Nanos said while it is understandable that the Liberals would want to ensure their budgets are not defeated, it likely comes with a political trade-off.

And if an election was held today, he said there is a good chance the Conservatives could win government.

"Maybe one of the takeaways here is that although the Liberal-New Democrat arrangement, parliamentary arrangement, provides for stability, I think Canadians woke up and go, 'Hold on a second. Does that mean we're going to have this for until 2025?' Perhaps some Canadians aren't happy and looking at the Conservatives as an alternative."

The polling is based on 1,084 random phone interviews with Canadians 18 and older, ending April 22. The data is based on a four-week rolling average where the oldest group of 250 interviews is dropped each week and a new group of 250 is added. The results are accurate within 2.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

With files from CTVNews.ca Producer Sarah Turnbull and The Canadian Press

nanos-poll-numbers-1-5878594-16510791457The latest poll numbers from Nanos Research show the Conservatives leading the Liberals, as of April 22, 2022. (Nanos)

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Unfortunately we went through the same thing a few years ago. When push comes to shove and he opens up the goody basket, Canadians will fold like a cheap suit like they usually do. Canadians love being coddled and comforted like little babies where they don’t have to face reality of their choices. It’s extremely frustrating to sit on the side lines and watch but it is what it is. NIMBY mentality is alive and well.

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Edited by Jaydee
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50 minutes ago, Jaydee said:

It’s extremely frustrating to sit on the side lines and watch but it is what it is

Pretty cool eh? What does it take to get people to vote on policy? It’s incredible that the liberals and NDP still account for some 50% of Canadian voters.

Even though 70 percenters appear to have lost about 5-6% of their numbers across the “all party” spectrum, It seems statistically insignificant (to me) given all of the issues that clearly fall on liberal minded doorsteps. Makes you wonder how much experience is required to modify their behaviour in face of sustained and repeatable reality.

I don’t understand it. Then again, I know people who consistently buy their winter wood supply in late fall, throw a tarp over it (no stacking please) to lock in the moisture, and then curse the hissing fire and chimney soot it produces.

It’s easily avoidable, yet they do this year after year as if expecting a different result, always paying top dollar for hardwood which burns dirty and releases a minimal amount of heat in the most inefficient manner possible. Some of the more perceptive folks have noticed that my wood doesn't do that, they attribute it to the stove though.... there's no convincing them otherwise.

Edited by Wolfhunter
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35 minutes ago, Wolfhunter said:

Makes you wonder how much experience is required to modify their behaviour in face of sustained and repeatable reality.

Interestingly enough, we MAY be slowlyyyyyy changing the concept. I am married to a life long Liberal and just this morning over coffee she stated….” I am so disappointed in our Liberal Leadership”  to the point where she didn’t vote last election. At least it’s a start.

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55 minutes ago, Jaydee said:

I am so disappointed in our Liberal Leadership”  to the point where she didn’t vote last election.

Is it possible that the "not voting" sentiment is driven by the lack of policy discussion and options during the run up to elections?

It seems to me that the lack of policy (meat in the sandwich) might be contributory.... not sure about that though. I don't know how to account for the numbers, I can't rationalize the addiction to burning wet wood either. 

When you combine liberal, NDB, Green and Bloc voters though it's a substantial majority that typically hovers at 70% (plus or minus a bit), hence my common referral to 70 percenters. Those 70 percenters may migrate back and forth between parties a bit but their narrative changes little as a result of the temporary shift in affiliation. That fact, assuming it is a fact, bodes poorly for places like Florida who are gaining population by virtue of the exodus from blue states. I fear that trend may serve to void the slow trend  (I'll call it progress) that you have noticed... I'm rooting for ya though.  

It's just that people tend to keep the same narratives and vote the same way when they are unable (or perhaps unwilling) to establish the link between policy (actions) and observable outcomes. Establishing that connection has proven more difficult than I would have guessed.

Edited by Wolfhunter
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20 minutes ago, Wolfhunter said:

It's just that people tend to keep the same narratives and vote the same way when they are unable (or perhaps unwilling) to establish the link between policy (actions) and observable outcomes. 

Truer words have never been spoken

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34 minutes ago, Kargokings said:

Is this a start by the CBC of articles about the man who will cut them back if he wins the next election?

Poilievre's campaign hires team behind Canada Proud to boost his messages online | CBC News

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I know for a FACT the Liberals are secretly scared as hell at Pollievres success to date and will do everything and anything they can to discredit him. I think we will see more and more of this type of reporting from the Trudeau broadcast corporation as time progresses.

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted (edited)

Every vote against this madness counts!!


“Taxpayer funding for child sex changes offered on Ontario NDP platform “

The Ontario NDP 2022 platform proposes full taxpayer funding for medically-induced gender transitions and operations for transgender youth. 

In the platform’s “health equity” section, NDP leader Andrea Horwath committed to providing “full coverage of transition drugs and medications” and to make it easier for people including kids to access sex change surgeries. 

“Immediately begin work to improve access to gender-affirming procedures and surgeries and make transition drugs free,” the platform states. “We’ll work to ensure full coverage of transition drugs and medications.” 

Currently, Ontario has several clinics which provide medical transition support services to youth. The province also doesn’t have an age of consent for gender reassignment treatment or counselling. 

“There is no general age of consent to treatment or counselling; instead, the issue depends on whether the young person is capable of consenting,” writes the Canadian Mental Health Association. 
 

Father and activist Chris Elston spoke to True North about the Ontario NDP’s proposed policy. Elston is better known as “Billboard Chris” for travelling across North America in an attempt to expose gender ideology and its effects on children. 

“The NDP has been completely captured by the most radical wing of their party who think that it is somehow loving and kind to try to change the sex of a child with unregulated, unproven, experimental puberty blocking drugs and opposite-sex hormones that leave children infertile, anorgasmic, and dependent on pharmaceutical drugs for the rest of their life,” said Elston.

“Historically, 80 – 90% of children with gender dysphoria simply grew out of it, and the majority grew up to be gay. So in addition to other problems with the ‘gender affirming care’ or ‘affirmation only’ model, this is very damaging to kids who would just grow up to be gay.” 

Elston pointed to a lack of proper clinical trials for puberty blockers like gonadotropin releasing hormone agonists and a ballooning mental health crisis among youth. 

“This is a mental health crisis that is being ignored, and the practice at gender clinics now is to simply affirm the child’s self-diagnosis as trans, and start them on a medical pathway that causes permanent physical damage. The NDP is also ignoring the huge numbers of children on the autism spectrum, or in state care who are presenting as trans,” Elston told True North.

Additionally, the opposition party squaring off against the ruling Progressive Conservatives in the upcoming election seeks to pass Bill-17, also known as the Gender Affirming Health Care Advisory Committee Act. 

The law seeks to speed up the process by which a person including a minor could access a medically induced gender transition. Transgender “youth” are specifically mentioned as a group represented by the policy. 

If passed it would lead to the creation of a Gender Affirming Health Care Advisory Committee which would advise Ontario’s Minister of Health on changes to the provincial healthcare system. 

Critics have also said that it would reduce the number of referrals required from doctors before transgender individuals can be operated on. 

“If this policy is enacted, more children will simply be fast-tracked into irreversible harm from puberty blockers, cross-sex hormones, and surgeries, with no clinical basis to support that this is positive for their mental health,” said Elston.

“Thousands of children will end up sterilized, with health problems for life, in what is arguably the greatest child abuse medical scandal in modern medicine history.”

In the bill, gender affirming care is defined as “procedures, medical treatments and referral processes that align a patient’s body and physical presentation with their gender identity.”

Gender transitioning procedures include double mastectomies, facial feminization surgery and other surgical procedures. 

NDP MPP and sponsor of the bill Suze Morrison has also tweeted that the law encompasses increasing access to trans children.

Ontarians will head to the polls for the 2022 Ontario general on June 2.

 https://tnc.news/2022/05/09/taxpayer-funding-for-child-sex-changes-offered-on-ontario-ndp-platform/

Edited by Jaydee
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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted (edited)

Historically Unions almost always supported the NDP.

Check out the transformation happening in Ontario so far. This is a HUGE shift imo.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Jaydee said:

This is a HUGE shift imo.

Agreed.

I think the NDP have shattered their brand, simply being crazier than the liberals is no longer selling.

But, I'm still surprised by the 70 percenter thing. Last I looked it was closer to 65, but still, the people who support the liberals, NDP, greens and Bloc represent the vast majority of Canadians. You can't really fault political parties for giving voters what they say they want. 

People will say they want action on climate change but a poll I saw (a while ago) made it pretty clear they don't want to pay for it. Other than doing what JT is doing, I'm nor sure where you go with that... anything other than planting trees and declaring net zero simply won't fly with voters.

But, and it's a big but, pity the fool who points that out to them. People will forgive missing targets as long as you promise tougher targets at a later date. In other words, the diet starts on Monday but Monday never comes. This seems to appeal to most of the people, or at least the ones I see who are double masked but wearing the mask below their noses.... it actually frightens me, I'm not sure how you counter it.

If we held an election today, I think JT would win again. The only way to change that is with an independent media asking tough questions. The unholy trinity and a complacent population will always favour JT. 

 

Edited by Wolfhunter
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1 hour ago, Wolfhunter said:

If we held an election today, I think JT would win again.

Unfortunately I think you are correct. How Canada gets past this destructive ideology the country is hooked on is a mystery left for people a lot smarter than me to figure out. 
 

I have but one vote and imo I use it wisely, not to necessarily benefit  me personally but for the country as a whole.

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Jaydee said:

not to necessarily benefit  me personally but for the country as a whole.

I do the same, but I fear it's not a common sentiment with most voters.

I perceive that people are too focussed on the free stuff and party platforms are geared toward that. On the surface, it sounds like a policy discussion but it' usually revolves around  "new stuff" (or regurgitated old stuff) that's not happening for a long time...if ever.  Look at the mileage they've gotten out of climate change, daycare and making the rich pay. I've been hearing about that since grade 6. 

Anyway, IMO, it deflects from the burning issues of the day which are rarely discussed other than in a manner to invoke fear in the electorate.

Even I can do it... JT will assert that the conservatives will put assault rifles back into the hands of rednecks while CISIS concurrently  issues a warning about the rise of white nationalism and white supremacy. Big city voters afraid of gun crime will assume it's all true as it's never challenged in the media or called out for the absurdity it actually is. The fact that racists are not running wild in the streets and that assault rifles (which must have selective fire to qualify as such) have been banned for many years is not even mentioned... absurdity then wins the day.

The trick here is simply to repeat it over and over again and have a compliant media that's complicit in the lie. All they need to do to qualify as complicit is to deliberately ignore the existing facts... and they already do that. The media lies surrounding the trucker protest stand as an extreme example of what I mean, and we all saw that in spades.

In addition, we rarely see people questioned on self serving, faulty, inflammatory, or selective logic. Pro-abortion folks are famous for saying "no womb, no opinion," but If men can have babies and men can have abortions, the notion that abortion is a women's health issue, by definition, now stands as bogus.

If "my body my choice" applies to abortion during delivery, surely it also applies to vaccine mandates... it also condemns the "harm to others" argument they used against people deemed "anti vaxxers" to the scrap heap of liberal absurdity. 

Edited by Wolfhunter
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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Jaydee said:

Conservatives gain at the expense of ALL other parties.

 

But what truly amazes me is that after all thats happened over the last couple of years, and after watching the full campaign, 50% of Ontario voters still support the NDP and Liberals. If they ran as a coalition it would be a clean sweep.

It's hard to believe that people actually want more and that 50% want the province to reflect (in future) what they already have at the national level.

I can't wait to see where the threshold is and what level of hardship and insanity it takes to reach it.

Edited by Wolfhunter
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31 minutes ago, Wolfhunter said:

But what truly amazes me is that after all thats happened over the last couple of years, and after watching the full campaign, 50% of Ontario voters still support the NDP and Liberals. If they ran as a coalition it would be a clean sweep.

Even running as a coalition, Ford would have a majority

0E774EEF-D14B-4E39-B674-7642B2960AAB.jpeg

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Jaydee said:

Even running as a coalition, Ford would have a majority

As much as I may be glad to see that it also seems systemically anti-democratic.

Election reform is a bit of a puzzle and admittedly, I haven't given it much thought. On the one hand, three large cities shouldn't rule the entire country but on the other, popular vote should count for something even if I don't like the outcome of it. 

I fear the trajectory is toward a looming urban/rural divide as opposed to being along political ideology / party lines. As a for instance, rural folk might wonder how the drug fuelled, gang warfare and attendant gun crime in Toronto is their problem when it appears (to them) as being so self inflicted as to leave no room for any outcome but the current chaos. In fact, most rural dwellers would ask WDYTWGTH, it's also safe to say that they resent being hammered with rules meant to fix someone else's problems.

I used to subscribe to the notion that "were all in this together" but times have changed to the point where I no longer do. There should be a mechanism for Toronto to clean up its own mess without vacuuming the furniture out of farmhouses half a continent away.

In short, all country folk want from the people of Toronto is absolutely nothing, and, I perceive that many would like to see reforms put in place to provide them with the nothing they desperately want. 

 

Edited by Wolfhunter
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From the National Post:

Chris Selley: Liberal Entitlement Syndrome infects Del Duca's Ontario election campaign

Chris Selley - 5h ago
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image.png.838d39638a0248d9739d34addde42af0.png
Ontario Liberal Party Leader Steven Del Duca high fives candidates after speaking in Toronto,, March 26, 2022, as the party launched its election campaign.
© Provided by National PostOntario Liberal Party Leader Steven Del Duca high fives candidates after speaking in Toronto,, March 26, 2022, as the party launched its election campaign.

Polls emphatically suggest Ontarians will reinstall Doug Ford comfortably as premier when they vote on Thursday, very likely with another majority government. And one thing has been very clear since the beginning of the provincial election campaign: As much genuine dismay and partisan fury as there is out there over Ontario’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Liberals and New Democrats knew it wouldn’t be enough to run this campaign as a referendum on lockdowns, vaccine mandates, ventilation in public schools, long-term care standards or playground closures.

Throughout the pandemic, polls showed most Ontarians of all political stripes were more or less willing to go along with what the government recommended, within reason. Ontario politics plays out largely in a snow globe, but Ontarians watched the news. (Many had little else to do.) They saw what was going on in Milan and New York City; they knew things could be horrifyingly worse; and they mainly didn’t blame Ford for Ontario being as bad as it was — or not enough to go looking for a different government, anyway.

The parties having understood this put affordability issues in their front windows where they belonged. But affordability issues have always been Ford’s wheelhouse: “Respect the taxpayer” is literally the family brand. After surviving the pandemic, the sudden spike in inflation gave Ford the perfect re-election platform.

So, in short, it was always very unlikely that we would see an upset by the NDPs or Liberals. But what an odd campaign the Liberals, in particular, cobbled together to try.

Leader Steven Del Duca exceeded my low expectations of him as a campaigner. I suspect some debate viewers previously unfamiliar with him might have been somewhat impressed with his calm, experienced mien. But then there were times when Liberal Entitlement Syndrome really shone through, if not from Del Duca himself — although Liberals choosing a former Kathleen Wynne cabinet minister as leader certainly didn’t send a “sweeping change” message — then from the party’s overall behaviour.

The all-but-completely-maskless Liberal campaign launch remains a classic example. The party was demanding mask mandates be reintroduced in schools and certain other settings; it was accusing the government of putting children and their elders at grave risk purely for political gain. And yet here was a very crowded room full of prominent Liberals, ready to go door knocking … and hardly a mask to be seen. They might as well have run a flag up a pole reading “we’re not actually that worried; we’re just trying to exploit worries for political gain.”

If Ford’s 2018 buck-a-beer campaign promise propelled his workaday-populist brand well into the realm of self-parody, Del Duca’s new buck-a-ride promise stretched credulity past the breaking point: $1 to go from downtown Ottawa to a Senators game on OC Transpo; $1 to go from Niagara Falls to Peterborough on GO transit; $1 to go from Toronto to Thunder Bay on Ontario Northland.

After Ford was first elected you actually could, briefly, get six-packs of certain beers for $6. I very much doubt anyone under a Del Duca government would ever have gotten from Toronto to Thunder Bay for $1. (Incidentally: The card left on my door handle by my local Liberal candidate on Tuesday strongly implied the plan was for those $1 fares to be permanent. That was not the Liberal plan.)

Most presumptuous of all, as ever, has been the Liberals’ implicit last-minute pitch to voters. Essentially: “The Progressive Conservatives must be defeated at all costs except at the cost of co-operating with the NDP either before the election or after, which we absolutely will not do. We, the third place party in the legislature and roughly tied with the NDP in the polls, are the only party that can effect this critical victory!”

It’s transparent nonsense, and normal people see it as such. The New Democrats are guilty of the same, arguably. But the NDP are never expected to win, even when their winning conditions are maxed out — as they were in 2018. And frankly, it’s much easier to sympathize with New Democrats who don’t want to co-operate with Liberals than vice versa. The Liberals always expect to win, and they’re reliably baffled when they do not.

On the bright side, the Liberals do not seem poised to fire Del Duca immediately should he fail to meet the party’s hopes. The knives will certainly be out if they finish third again, or if Del Duca fails to regain his seat in Vaughan-Woodbridge — polls suggest he will. But the one-and-done leadership phenomenon that has taken root among some Canadian parties, both federal and provincial, is really the most presumptuous thing of all in Canadian politics: “(Insert premier or prime minister) is so objectively awful and unelectable that any leader who fails to defeat him must be thrown on history’s scrap heap.”

That’s clearly not how Canada’s very important swing voters think or behave. If parties in opposition really want to sell the electorate on vastly better government, it would very much behoove them to provide vastly better government when they get the chance. Del Duca, who is known among other things for trying to shoehorn a GO train stop into his riding where it didn’t belong back when he was transport minister, is not the guy I would pick to make it happen. But he may well get four years as leader of the opposition to audition for that role. Having made their questionable choice for leader, it would be silly for Liberals not to give him that chance.

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Does the result mean that the normal NDP and Liberals  voters were showing their displeasure re the Federal Alliance of both parties?

Voter turnout in Ontario lowest in history, early data from Elections Ontario shows

 

Early data from Elections Ontario suggests that the 2022 provincial election had the worst voter turnout in history.

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