Interesting, Covid declines worldwide

[Turbofan]

There could be many reason known and unknown why we are seeing a drop in cases worldwide. 
 

But at some point through exposure and vaccination Covid will no longer be Novel.  
 

Canada sees 30-per-cent drop in COVID cases, but Tam calls for continued vigilance

 

Canada’s chief public health officer Dr. Theresa Tam. PHOTO BY SEAN KILPATRICK/THE CANADIAN PRESS/FILE

Canada has seen nearly a 30-per-cent drop in active COVID-19 cases over the past two weeks, but chief public health officer says strict measures should remain in place as more contagious variants of the virus threaten to derail this downward trend.

In a daily update Thursday, Dr. Theresa Tam said there are 48,221 active COVID-19 cases in Canada, down from more than 68,400 cases two weeks ago.

She said this slowdown has led to a gradual decline in severe COVID-19 outcomes. Over the past seven days, an average of 3,711 patients were treated in hospitals each day, including 792 intensive care cases.

Even with this decline, Tam said the current caseload continues to burden local health-care resources, particularly in regions with high infection rates.

Read more.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-9219379/Why-coronavirus-cases-falling-fast-New-infections-drop-44-three-weeks.html

Why ARE COVID cases plummeting? New infections have fallen 45% in the US and 30% globally in the past 3 weeks but experts say vaccine is NOT the main driver because only 8% of Americans and 13% people worldwide have received their first dose.

 

[FA@AC]

An article claiming that 13% of people worldwide have had a first dose of Covid vaccination is bunk.

Lockdown measures are the reason for the decline in cases at home.

[Turbofan]

Yeah good pick up on the vaccine percentage.  I’m not suggesting this is ending next month either

Lockdowns certainly are a factor.  However as people get antibodies either through exposure or vaccine, those people get pulled out of the pool of those who can spread the virus.  Once that number grows cases drop naturally as it becomes more difficult for Covid to find un unsuspecting host. Covid eventually is no longer Novel. It would be the eventual progression of the virus regardless.  Vaccine speeds up the process.

It brings up a massive question.  How many people have actually been exposed to Covid 19 or a previous mutation we weren’t actually aware of at the time?

We really have no idea.  We have no idea how close current exposure is to the tipping point where cases drop naturally.  We are completely blind on this front.  We can credit lockdowns, restrictions or a vaccine all we want.  But we actually don’t, and may never, really know how large a factor normal progression will have played.

That leaves us no choice but to simply try and watch for it.  At the moment vaccinations are playing a small roll in the declining cases.  Lockdowns and restrictions don’t explain the sudden drop either.  Assuming, (big IF) the trend continues another force is at play.  The force we can’t see, taste or smell. Just Mother Nature doing her thing.

This is just me trying to be optimistic. 

[Turbofan]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51235105
 

 

[Turbofan]

https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-cases-falling-world-658e7dc2-73b4-4281-9c5a-01343f2849ac.html

Daily cases of COVID-19 are currently falling across most of the world, and deaths — which had been climbing globally until late January — are also beginning to decrease.

The big picture: We can only learn so much from this 30,000-foot view, and there's plenty to fear from the emerging variants. Plus, cases and deaths had been so high that even after climbing down from the peak, we're still pretty close to the summit.

But this is the first time since the pandemic began where cases are falling in basically every region of the world at the same time. On a global level, virtually the only number that is rising is vaccine doses administered.

And in some places — south Asia for example — there's growing confidence that the worst of the pandemic may be over even before vaccines become widely available.

Our thought bubble: Optimism has not aged well during this pandemic, and this chart could look very different in a few weeks' time.

[Vsplat]

The last line is the most important.  COVID has punished complacency with relentless consistency. 

The numbers way well be lower now, but that is cold comfort to the families losing loved ones every day. 

While the numbers show measures are working and perhaps lend some strength to our collective resolve, there is little there to tell me we can relax, not yet.

Vs

[CanadaEH]

Over the last week of daily updates I've noticed that there's more attention and questions being asked to the amount of "covid variant" cases. Forget about regular COVID.. WHAT ABOUT THE VARIENTS!! We have a new thing to be scared of.

Noticed a city of 2M in Australia locked down because they had 1 case. Unbelievable. 

 

[Turbofan]

1 hour ago, Vsplat said:

While the numbers show measures are working and perhaps lend some strength to our collective resolve, there is little there to tell me we can relax, not yet.

Vs

Of course extreme caution is warranted.
 

The point was that the measures we have introduced plus the start of vaccination don’t on there own explain the drop in cases.

The suggestion is that Covid may have been far more widespread than we realize. In which case far more people have antibodies than we realize.

Or this is just a blip. Hence the caution.

Here is a quote out of one of the articles posted above.

“Public health experts believe that the decline in cases is likely a combination of a higher number of people who've had the virus than official counts suggest.”

 

[Turbofan]

https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/21/cdc-study-actual-covid-19-cases/

Actual Covid-19 case count could be 6 to 24 times higher than official estimates, CDC study shows

 

As of today there has been 105 million known cases of Covid.  If the actual number of cases is actually 6 to 24 times higher than know cases, as the CDC study suggests, a very significant portion of this planets population may have already been infected.  That removes a significant portion of the world’s population that is no longer a viable host for the virus.  Making it more difficult to spread.

[Seeker]

5 hours ago, Turbofan said:

 

 

As of today there has been 105 million known cases of Covid.  If the actual number of cases is actually 6 to 24 times higher than know cases, as the CDC study suggests, a very significant portion of this planets population may have already been infected.  That removes a significant portion of the world’s population that is no longer a viable host for the virus.  Making it more difficult to spread.

...and what about the (idiotic - in my opinion) idea put forward by the "experts" last year that having Covid does not give any immunity and that it's possible to be re-infected over and over.

[boestar]

It stands to reason that if a specific percentage of those tested across the planet tested positive, that with a small margin of error the same percentage of the global population has been positive even though they have not been tested.  Just extrapolation.   if the give sample size is large and diverse enough then you can arrive at a relatively accurate total case number world wide.

s say you have tested a sample of the world population and came to a positivity rate of 4% on average.

7Billion people on the planet X4% =280,0000,000 possible cases.  of those 280Million only a small percentage will actually show symptoms and a very small percentage will die.

Now of course the same thing could happen to Covid 19 as happened to the original SARS Virus and it could well die off on its own.  Sars died off without all the hub bub and no vaccine

 

 

[Kip Powick]

Vaccine Arrives In Canada

[Turbofan]

4 hours ago, seeker said:

...and what about the (idiotic - in my opinion) idea put forward by the "experts" last year that having Covid does not give any immunity and that it's possible to be re-infected over and over.

I am no doctor.  This is simply my understanding.  I think our understanding of herd immunity is the problem and the media is no help. My understanding of herd immunity is when enough people have either been exposed, or vaccinated, if the virus shows up in that population, it has no where to go and will run itself out.  Polio or small pox as an example.

That never happens with a Corona virus.

Corona Viruses ( Cold virus’s) mutate quickly and never really ever go away.  We have 4 or 5 different cold viruses that constantly spread throughout the world.  Constantly changing and reinfecting you and I every year.  But they are not novel.  Our immune systems have seen them before, or something similar, and immediately respond.  Each and every one of those cold viruses was at one time Novel.  Brand new to the human race and did what Covid is doing today.  Eventually the virus is spread far and wide and is no longer novel.  People’s immune systems see it for what it is and respond accordingly.  This will be the most likely end state for Covid.

But that doesn’t meet the definition of heard immunity where transmission is reduced to zero in a protected population.  In this case the virus is a Corona virus.  Constantly mutating for its own survival.  We all get to endure it as a cold, ever year, from here on out.  
 

It is why there are all these questions about spread after vaccination.  It will still be here and spreading.  It will remain a risk for an ever shrinking population that has never been exposed or vaccinated.  

 

[Turbofan]

Here is an example of Doctors and the media referring to what is happening in India as “Herd Immunity”.

Then you will here some other Doctor from another part of the world state that isn’t herd immunity because community spread isn’t dropping to ZERO in a protected population.

Confusing? Absolutely.  But the confusion doesn’t actually change the final outcome.  Covid eventually transitions from being novel and becomes a cold to annoy many generations to follow.  But never actually drops to zero.  Never actually stops spreading back and forth in the community.
 

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/with-millions-of-cases-has-india-achieved-herd-immunity

With millions of cases, has India achieved herd immunity?

Many are touting that India has made it out the other side, but with limited viral surveillance the future is unknown.

To our relief and surprise, the number of cases have started to come down drastically,” says Kataria.

The trend extends beyond the capital. Nationally, India’s new confirmed coronavirus infections have fallen precipitously, from a peak of nearly 100,000 new infections a day in mid-September to an average of 13,000 to 14,000 a day by the end of January. At the same time, health surveys indicate that there could have been much higher public exposure to the virus than was previously realized.

What we seem to have done is let the virus run its course,” says virologist T Jacob John, a retired professor at Christian Medical College in Vellore in southern Tamil Nadu state. “By not flattening the curve in the beginning, India went through the herd immunity threshold and the epidemic seems to be naturally coming down.”

 

 

[Turbofan]

Mayo Clinic. Herd immunity.

 

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/herd-immunity-and-coronavirus/art-20486808

Research suggests that after infection with some coronaviruses, reinfection with the same virus — though usually mild and only happening in a fraction of people — is possible after a period of months or years. Further research is needed to determine the protective effect of antibodies to the virus in those who have been infected.

 

[AIP]

1 hour ago, Kip Powick said:

Vaccine Arrives In Canada

 

Is that Trudeau carrying the vaccine at a photo-op ???  LOL

[Vsplat]

I think we have underestimated this thing at every step.  Maybe I'm jaded at this point but it seems too early to say anything beyond this week - as in - it's good news that things are in decline, this week.

Maybe what is going on in India is short term immunity to COVID 1.  Maybe that immunity lasts, maybe it doesn't, maybe the next strain breaks through like influenza does.  Maybe we end up needing an annual shot or booster, maybe not.

That's a lot of maybes.  I bet someone who really knows what they are talking about could add a lot more.

Play safe....

Vs

[Turbofan]

All true.  But worrying about every eventuality will drive you crazy.  
 

At the end of the day once community spread hits a certain level cases naturally drop.  It’s part of normal progression.  Can things still go sideways? Yes but it is a negative outlook.  

Part of the negativity is derived from not being able to see the progression. It’s like a marathon but you have no idea where you are in the race.  Your tired.  Maybe you have 3km to go.  Maybe you have 20km to go.  No idea. That is emotionally draining.

Here we are witnessing, hopefully that is, part of the progression.  A good thing.  It means we are part way between where we started and where we need to be.  It means we are closer to the finish line than the starter gun.

[Guest1]

1 hour ago, Turbofan said:

All true.  But worrying about every eventuality will drive you crazy.  
 

At the end of the day once community spread hits a certain level cases naturally drop.  It’s part of normal progression.  Can things still go sideways? Yes but it is a negative outlook.  

 

The level will always drop once the most vulnerable  die, as always in nature it is all about the survival of the fittest. 

[UpperDeck]

Kargo..on this point, we agree.

In my opinion, "lockdowns" are a very, very minimalist approach unless absolute and the benefits end with relaxation of the rules. What FA@AC may experience as a "lockdown" is different than what other communities in other communities experience.

I also don't believe that we should place undue emphasis on the opinions of epidemiologists who study and report upon  disease development and impact on populations.

Virologists are the best source for information and they speak of organisms that respond to the population in which they reside and thrive. The media "raves" about variants and yet there are a multitude of variants as the Covid virus adapts ( mutates) to better ensure its survival in the host population which it can access.

Restricting travel per se to inhibit the transmission of a variant is a fool's game. If that mutation enhances survivability, then it will be discovered by the virus in other locales on its own. That is why the UK variant or a semblance thereof was discovered in Canada in a person who had neither travelled nor had contact with anyone else who had travelled.

This virus like all others is an "entity" that has an inherent desire to survive. Our bodies share the same desire. Some will prevail. With the benefit of science, we increase our likelihood of survival and thus the suppression of the virus.....which ( I fear) will simply go dormant.

[UpperDeck]

I wanted to add that the will of the virus to survive and replicate is frustrated by the death of the host. It therefore seeks ways to both enhance transmission and not inhibit life. As it mutates, we should see more infections and less deaths.

[Turbofan]

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/2/16/india-sees-dramatic-fall-in-virus-cases-experts-stumped

Experts puzzled by dramatic fall in coronavirus cases in India

A nationwide screening for antibodies by Indian health agencies estimated that about 270 million, or one in five Indians, had been infected by the virus before vaccinations started – far below the rate of 70 percent or higher that experts say might be the threshold for the coronavirus, though even that is not certain.

[Turbofan]

Worldwide 7 day average for new cases is now about 60% of peak.  My interpretation.  It’s actually 50% but appears to be caused by a one day statistical anomaly.

[Kip Powick]

From another AEFer

 

This could, should would be good news if it passes all lab tests and is quickly approved..

This appears to be a legitimate Canadian company … https://sanotize.com/press-releases/ … why did our brain trust in Ottawa throw money at China to develop a vaccine instead of supporting home grown businesses such as this one?

This is interesting and makes sense to me.  It is my understanding the COVID 19 enters our bodies thru the nose. Sometimes a simple solution to a problem is the answer.   I hope that this is factual and can get approved to market to the general public.

 

 

[Seeker]

Kip;  It's all about vitamin D.  Here's one vid from Youtube but there are many other sources that say the same thing.