Travel during the continuing PANDEMIC

[UpperDeck]

10 hours ago, Turbofan said:

Discourage travel.  Doug Ford sees YYZ as petri dish.

The problem with the Alberta program is that it facilitates travel.  Even had a reciprocal deal in Hawaii to enable safe travel.  It was supported by the Alberta government until travel shaming started.

Now the program is a pariah.

In my opinion, the "problem" isn't travel per se; it's what one does upon arrival!!

If "vacationing" the determinant is where and with whom.

If returning home, the same is true. You can't "quarantine" if your household is shared and if it isn't stocked with necessities.

I suggest it is (as it always is) all about enforcement. You get a few recalcitrants and put them in jail for a week and publicize the fact....you'll see more compliance. Right now....the undertaking to quarantine is meaningless; online daily check-in...the "no symptoms"  option is highlighted..done! I got one automated call and one "live" call. Both on my cell. Me?? I was home but how many others saw technology as an easy way to dance around restrictions?

[J.O.]

1 hour ago, UpperDeck said:

I suggest it is (as it always is) all about enforcement. You get a few recalcitrants and put them in jail for a week and publicize the fact....you'll see more compliance. Right now....the undertaking to quarantine is meaningless; online daily check-in...the "no symptoms"  option is highlighted..done! I got one automated call and one "live" call. Both on my cell. Me?? I was home but how many others saw technology as an easy way to dance around restrictions?

A similar strategy has worked very well for the Aussies. They've issued heavy fines and published every example of non-compliance with isolation requirements for arriving travellers. A few foreign travellers were even sent back home, forced to buy last minute tickets via some pretty circuitous routes because nothing else was available, all at their own expense.

Edited January 28, 2021 by J.O.

[Turbofan]

2 hours ago, UpperDeck said:

In my opinion, the "problem" isn't travel per se; it's what one does upon arrival!!

If "vacationing" the determinant is where and with whom.

If returning home, the same is true. You can't "quarantine" if your household is shared and if it isn't stocked with necessities.

I suggest it is (as it always is) all about enforcement. You get a few recalcitrants and put them in jail for a week and publicize the fact....you'll see more compliance. Right now....the undertaking to quarantine is meaningless; online daily check-in...the "no symptoms"  option is highlighted..done! I got one automated call and one "live" call. Both on my cell. Me?? I was home but how many others saw technology as an easy way to dance around restrictions?

I agree.  My post was meant to be a little sarcastic.

This is the but.  Those in power want travel stopped.  Constitutional they can’t do that without the Emergencies Act.  Politically that is risky.

What they can do is make it so difficult/expensive that people don’t bother.  That is the route they have taken.

They are not interested in measures that make travel safe and more convenient like the program in YYC as those measures encourage travel.

 

[Turbofan]

It’s no different than what the government did to the oil industry.  Show industry that you will make their life difficult and expensive.  Investment will stop.

Make travel difficult and expensive and travel will stop.

In both cases our populous politicians are getting what they want, without the political risk.

[J.O.]

3 hours ago, Turbofan said:

It’s no different than what the government did to the oil industry.  Show industry that you will make their life difficult and expensive.  Investment will stop.

The government doesn't set the world price of oil. 

[Turbofan]

30 minutes ago, J.O. said:

The government doesn't set the world price of oil. 

No they set the policy that encourages and or discourages investment. Oil and gas investment has not dried up.  It’s just gone elsewhere.  So much so we had to nationalize a pipeline.

The point I was making was behavioural.  In both cases the government isn’t saying no to oil and gas, or travel.  Instead they make it too difficult or expensive, that way the company or person chooses to behave as wanted.

Companies choose to go elsewhere.  People choose to stay home.

It gives government plausible deniability and reduces political risk. We didn’t do this.  We aren’t responsible.  

 

[Turbofan]

Canadian government to force incoming travellers into hotels for quarantine

The hotel stays will be at travelers expense and is the latest in a string of measures designed to discourage Canadians from travelling abroad.

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/canadian-government-to-force-incoming-travellers-into-hotels-for-quarantine

[Turbofan]

-$2000 to quarantine in hotel on arrival

- International arrivals only in YVR, YYC, YYZ, YUL

-All sun destinations suspended

[Guest1]

I wonder how the hotels will be staffed etc. to deal with those forced to stay for 14days in case they may come down with the virus? 

Have the hotels even been consulted / asked if they can cope?   Will we see a list of approved hotels?   The Devil is, as always, in the detail.  

[GDR]

I wonder at what point the airlines simply cease operations other than for cargo, and even with cargo what will they do with the crews.

[Guest1]

Just now, GDR said:

I wonder at what point the airlines simply cease operations other than for cargo, and even with cargo what will they do with the crews.

Airlines, cruise lines, trains, bus lines, hotels, bars, restaurants, attractions, sports,  etc etc etc.    

[Turbofan]

7 minutes ago, Kargokings said:

I wonder how the hotels will be staffed etc. to deal with those forced to stay for 14days in case they may come down with the virus? 

Have the hotels even been consulted / asked if they can cope?   Will we see a list of approved hotels?   The Devil is, as always, in the detail.  

Trudeau stated the hotel quarantine would be 2-3 days and a couple of tests for $2000.  If you test positive you will be shipped off to a government facility.

[Guest1]

 

Canadian airlines agree to suspend flights to sun destinations | CTV News

@shtweet Contact

Published Friday, January 29, 2021 11:57AM ESTLast Updated Friday, January 29, 2021 12:04PM EST

[Turbofan]

19 minutes ago, GDR said:

I wonder at what point the airlines simply cease operations other than for cargo, and even with cargo what will they do with the crews.

The crews?  Force Majeure is an option.  Suspend the contract and do as you please.
 

I agree.  This hibernation strategy won’t work without aid. This summer isn’t going to materialize.  BC stated last night do not expect to be able to have foreign travellers at a wedding this summer.  Put it off to 2022.  Expect summer 2021 to be like summer 2020.  Plan accordingly.

So without aid I would assume big decisions are on the table for WJ, AC, TRZ, SW etc.

The thing is JT may like this.  Aircraft burn carbon.  If he does nothing, and the industry gets decimated, he has plausible deniability. We need an airline within Canada.  But we don’t need an international airline.  

[Guest1]

25 minutes ago, Turbofan said:

We need an airline within Canada.  But we don’t need an international airline.  

If that happens, I wonder who gets to chose the survivors?  Maybe a return to "regulated routes" (as before deregulation)

[Turbofan]

I think we will know soon enough.  If there is still no aid it sends a message.

Hopefully the fact that I am from Alberta, and have watched this dance once already with another industry, I’m just PARANOID.

[rudder]

The AC/TRZ merger when fully consummated will likely take 10-15% of the 2019 consolidated capacity for those two carriers out of the market. 

[Turbofan]

11 minutes ago, rudder said:

The AC/TRZ merger when fully consummated will likely take 10-15% of the 2019 consolidated capacity for those two carriers out of the market. 

Is that meant as a green angle?  Interesting

[conehead]

1 hour ago, Turbofan said:

The crews?  Force Majeure is an option.  Suspend the contract and do as you please.
 

I agree.  This hibernation strategy won’t work without aid. This summer isn’t going to materialize.  BC stated last night do not expect to be able to have foreign travellers at a wedding this summer.  Put it off to 2022.  Expect summer 2021 to be like summer 2020.  Plan accordingly.

So without aid I would assume big decisions are on the table for WJ, AC, TRZ, SW etc.

The thing is JT may like this.  Aircraft burn carbon.  If he does nothing, and the industry gets decimated, he has plausible deniability. We need an airline within Canada.  But we don’t need an international airline.  

This is exactly what I was thinking.

[Airband]

I think the 'cooperation' of the carriers to suspend sun destination operations provides the feds enough cover to move forward on an aid package. Some sort of accommodation will be reached (loans, tax breaks, or?) to ease burden on carriers to issue refunds and minimize the howls.

[Airband]

On 1/28/2021 at 9:43 AM, UpperDeck said:

In my opinion, the "problem" isn't travel per se;

Obviously even more draconian measures are required to stomp out the scourge of the remaining 2.4% travel related sources...

[Turbofan]

10 minutes ago, Airband said:

I think the 'cooperation' of the carriers to suspend sun destination operations provides the feds enough cover to move forward on an aid package. Some sort of accommodation will be reached (loans, tax breaks, or?) to ease burden on carriers to issue refunds and minimize the howls.

Maybe.  It could also be that there was prior discussion and the airlines just said uncle.

[Guest1]

So if you fly in from the US, 2 to 3 day hotel isolation etc etc etc.  No mention of other transportation. For example those using Canada as a corridor ground travel to/from Alaska and the US as but one example.  

Quote

Mr. Trudeau said non-essential travellers entering Canada at a land border will soon have to show a negative COVID-19 test before entering and more testing requirements will be announced in the coming weeks.

I see WestJet and I guess the others will make arrangements to fly those already in the sun spots back, so empty aircraft going down and then full (maybe) coming back. Now since the number of arrival points will also be cut down, what will happen with the returning passengers that may have flown from YWG, YEG etc to the sun destinations? Will they also be subject to the 2 day quarantine, tests etc? 

 

[UpperDeck]

11 minutes ago, Airband said:

Obviously even more draconian measures are required to stomp out the scourge of the remaining 2.4% travel related sources...

The esteemed PM acknowledges that travel accounts for a very small percentage of transmissions; "...but even 1 is more than zero." Brilliant!!

$2000. for 3 days quarantine? I don't think so. Throw around large numbers to scare would-be travellers. That amount may be the cost of a 14 day hotel all-inclusive stay. Does Uber Eats deliver alcohol?

My personal issue is my belief that I am at greater risk...much greater...quarantined in an hotel rather that on my "estate" (lol).

This mad dash to protect Canadians is because of the "variants"....virus mutations. We have the UK; the Brazilian ( used to be a sexy description!); and the SA.

There is evidence of these variants discovered with NIL evidence of any travel or traveller contact.

So here's a question.....any realization amongst the cogniscenti that mutations occur based on location and "host type"? Enough cases, and Canadians could have their very own "variant". We MAY have the UK or Brazilian variants not by reason of importation but because of locally "bred" mutations.

And all of these travel restrictions will be proven to be "much ado about nothing".

[J.O.]

13 minutes ago, UpperDeck said:

So here's a question.....any realization amongst the cogniscenti that mutations occur based on location and "host type"? Enough cases, and Canadians could have their very own "variant". We MAY have the UK or Brazilian variants not by reason of importation but because of locally "bred" mutations.

I agree. The "variants" justification is a red herring, IMHO. This virus mutates - just like most others. There is no evidence whatsoever that mutations are affected by location. The only way to eliminate variants is to eliminate the virus altogether - and we know how well that's gone so far. Travel isn't our primary problem. If it's that important to all but kill transborder travel, then where are the similarly stringent measures to stop community spread? That's the real threat in this situation.