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Coronavirus: Airline passengers on 3 flights to YVR should monitor for symptoms

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By Amy Judd Global News
Posted July 1, 2020 6:04 pm
 Updated July 1, 2020 6:46 pm
0:22Coronavirus: Majority of Canadians say they’ll wait at least 6 months to travel

 

The B.C. Centre for Disease Control is advising airline passengers of possible exposure to COVID-19 on another three recent flights to Vancouver.

The first is Air Canada flight 217 from Saskatoon to Vancouver (YVR) on June 16.

The second is also an Air Canada flight, number 557 from Los Angeles to YVR, on June 18.

And most recently, Flair Airlines flight 8102 from Toronto to YVR on June 21.

The BCCDC says as of March 27, B.C. no longer directly contacts passengers from domestic flights who were seated near a confirmed case during the flight.

All passengers who flew on those flights are being asked to self-isolate and monitor symptoms for 14 days from the date of travel.

 

As of March 25, it is mandatory under the Quarantine Act that anyone arriving in B.C. from outside of Canada is required to stay home for 14 days upon their arrival

Editor’s note: An earlier version of this article incorrectly stated the June 21 Flair Airlines flight was out of Saskatoon, when it actually originated in Toronto.

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Possible coronavirus exposure on WestJet flight from Toronto to Halifax

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By Alexander Quon Global News
Posted July 1, 2020 11:32 am
5:09When will a COVID-19 vaccine be ready?

 

The Nova Scotia Health Authority is warning of possible coronavirus exposure on a WestJet flight between Toronto and Halifax last week.

WestJet flight WS 248 left Toronto at 10 a.m. ET, on June 26 and landed in Halifax at 1:04 p.m. AT.

Officials with the Nova Scotia Health Authority (NSHA) say that while anyone on the flight could have been exposed that passengers in rows 16, 17, 18, 19, 20 and 21 seats A-C are more likely to have had close contact.

Passengers who were in those seats are asked to call 811 for advice.

The NSHA says it is anticipated that anyone exposed to the virus on the flight may develop symptoms up to, and including July 10, 2020

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This definitely wont help getting rid of the 14 day quarantine when travelling between provinces! What now? Shut down the airlines until a vaccine is found? I'm not sure where this is going to end up. Any thoughts?

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I'm not a huge fan of surveillance but those COVID tracking Apps might be useful for this kind of thing. 

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Passengers near Manitoba COVID-19 case on June flights now told to self-isolate

News from CBC News – link to story

No new cases of COVID-19 announced in Manitoba on Thursday; province has 16 active cases

Aidan Geary · CBC News · Posted: Jul 02, 2020

covid-19-bccdc-serology-testing.jpg COVID-19 samples at the B.C Centre for Disease Control lab in this April file photo. No new cases of COVID-19 were announced in Manitoba on Thursday. (Ben Nelms/CBC)

Some passengers on Air Canada flights last month are now being advised to self-isolate because they are considered close contacts of a COVID-19 case identified earlier this week in Manitoba, the province said Thursday.

No new cases of COVID-19 in the province were announced on Thursday, with a total of 16 active cases in the province.

The daily news release did, however, update a warning from earlier this week about a passenger who travelled by plane three times in June and tested positive for COVID-19.

On Tuesday, the province advised passengers on the flights to simply self-monitor for symptoms. However, on Thursday, that advice was updated to instruct passengers in affected rows to self-isolate for 14 days following the flight.

The province’s advisory includes:

  • June 18: Air Canada flight AC 295, from Winnipeg to Vancouver, rows 19-25.
  • June 21: Air Canada flight AC 122 from Vancouver to Toronto, rows not yet determined.
  • June 23: Air Canada flight AC 259, from Toronto to Winnipeg, rows 24 to 30.

People who were on those flights and in those rows are considered close contacts of the case, the province said. They are advised to self-isolate for 14 days from the time of the flight and monitor for symptoms.

If you were on the flight but not in the affected rows, you should self-monitor for symptoms, the province said.

In the past week, 10 new cases of COVID-19 have been announced in Manitoba. Eight of them were in the Winnipeg health region, according to provincial data, and the remaining two were in the Southern Health region.

At least four of the cases were linked to the trucking industry.

As of Thursday, 302 people have recovered from COVID-19 in Manitoba, the province said Thursday.

A total of 325 confirmed or probable cases have been identified in the province since the pandemic began, and seven Manitobans have died.

No one is currently in hospital or in intensive care for COVID-19, the province said.

On Wednesday, 512 tests were completed, with a further 503 tests on Tuesday. That brings Manitoba’s total to 64,329 tests since early February.

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BCCDC warns of COVID-19 exposure on flight from Mexico City to Vancouver

News from CTV News – link to story

Jen St. Denis, Reporter, CTVNewsVancouver.ca ~ July 11, 2020

VANCOUVER — The B.C. Centre for Disease Control is warning travellers on board an Aeromexico flight they may have been exposed to COVID-19.

The flight from Mexico City to Vancouver took place on June 25, with the flight number 696.

The BCCDC says it is no longer directly notifying plane passengers who were seated near someone who has tested positive for the virus. The agency says travel outside of Canada is not recommended right now, and people who do return from abroad are required to self-isolate for 14 days.

The BCCDC keeps an updated list of flights that have been found to have a COVID-19-positive passenger on board. For some domestic flights, the agency is listing the seats that were near the person.

Other flights in June where passengers may have been exposed to COVID-19 include:

  • Air Canada flight 557 from Los Angeles to Vancouver on June 18
  • Delta flight 3898 from Seattle to Vancouver on June 3
  • WestJet flight 166 from Vancouver to Edmonton on June 3
  • WestJet flight 130 from Vancouver to Calgary on June 11
  • Air Canada flight 217, formerly 8737, from Saskatoon to Vancouver on June 16
  • Flair flight 8102 from Toronto to Vancouver on June 21

To see a full list of all flights from May and June, visit the BCCDC’s website.

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3 hours ago, AIP said:

If people are to quarantine for 14 days, why are these flights still in the news ????

All were more than 14 days ago, with many over a month now.

Perhaps, possible spread from those on the flights to others ?  Note that 4 of the 6 flights were domestic and not subject to the 14day quarantine.  

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Passengers aboard flights from Kelowna, Montreal warned of COVID-19 exposure

News from CBC News – link to story

B.C. Centre for Disease Control advisory includes two new domestic and two international flights

CBC News · Posted: Jul 13, 2020

Two new domestic flights into Vancouver have been flagged after a passenger was confirmed to have COVID-19, one from Kelowna and one from Montreal. (Jonathan Hayward/The Canadian Press)

The B.C. Centre for Disease Control (BCCDC) is advising the public of two new domestic flights into Vancouver  — one from Kelowna and one from Montreal — that had a passenger infected with COVID-19.

The updates were made to the agency’s public exposures website on Monday.

The flights are:

  • Air Canada flight 8421 from Kelowna to Vancouver, July 6.
  • Air Canada flight 311 from Montreal to Vancouver, July 8.

There have also been two international flights into B.C. this month with COVID-19 exposure advisories, according to BCCDC:

  • American Airline flight 1270 from Dallas to Vancouver, July 6.
  • United Airlines flight 375 from San Francisco to Vancouver, July 7.

According the BCCDC, passengers should self-isolate and monitor for symptoms for 14 days following the flight.

Passengers aboard international flights into British Columbia must self-isolate and monitor for symptoms for 14 days under the Quarantine Act.

The agency says B.C. health officials stopped directly notifying passengers of COVID-19 contacts on domestic flights March 27. Instead passengers should refer to the public exposures list online for the latest information.

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5 flights from or to Regina, Saskatoon carried passengers with coronavirus

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By Jonathan Guignard Global News
Posted July 14, 2020 11:22 am
 Updated July 14, 2020 11:28 a

Affected Flights

Information updated July 13, 2020

The following flights had confirmed cases of COVID-19. Passengers who traveled on these flights are asked to self-monitor for symptoms for 14 days after their arrival.

Airline Flight Number Origin Destination Flight Date Affected Seats
WestJet WS296 Calgary Regina July 6, 2020 No info available
Air Canada  AC 7947 Toronto Regina July 4, 2020 Rows 14-20

Air Canada

AC 1121 Toronto Saskatoon June 23, 2020 No info available
Air Canada AC 217
(originally AC 8737)
Saskatoon Vancouver June 16, 2020 Rows 13-19
WestJet WS3370 Calgary Saskatoon June 11, 2020 Rows 4-10

All international travellers must self-isolate upon return to Canada. Travel outside of Canada is not recommended at this time.

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At least 26 flights have arrived in Canada with COVID-19 cases in last two weeks

News from CTV News – link to VIDEO and story

Meredith MacLeod CTVNews.ca Writer | July 14, 2020

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A plane is silhouetted as it takes off from Vancouver International Airport in Richmond, B.C., on May 13, 2019. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jonathan Hayward

TORONTO — Within the last two weeks — the 14-day window believed by scientists to be the incubation period of COVID-19 — at least 26 flights have arrived in Canadian airports with confirmed cases of the virus onboard.

According to the federal government, COVID-19 cases have been reported among passengers on 10 domestic flights and 16 international flights since June 29. It advises the list is not exhaustive and is based on information from “provincial and territorial health authorities, international health authorities and public websites.”

The affected international flights arrived in Canadian airports from Mexico City, Cancun, Zurich, Paris, Addis Ababa, Islamabad, Lahore, Qatar, San Francisco, Washington, D.C., Dallas, Detroit, and three flights from Charlotte, N.C.

Health officials in British Columbia, Manitoba and Saskatchewan are advising those on board 11 flights into those provinces in the last two weeks that fellow passengers have since tested positive for COVID-19.

Manitoba health officials said Tuesday that one of five new positive cases in the province was a passenger on WestJet flight 261 from Winnipeg to Calgary on June 27 and on WestJet flight 526 from Calgary to Winnipeg on July 2.

Officials said those who sat in rows 7 to 22 on the Winnipeg to Calgary flight and rows 4 to 10 on the Calgary to Winnipeg flight are considered close contacts of the infected passenger. They must self-isolate for 14 days following the flight and monitor for symptoms.

Those not sitting in the affected rows should self-isolate if they develop any symptoms of COVID-19: fever/chills, cough, headache, muscle aches, sore or hoarse throat, shortness of breath or breathing difficulties, loss of taste or smell, unusual fatigue, nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, loss of appetite or lesions or rashes without clear cause.

Saskatchewan has red-flagged five flights since June 11 and two in the last two weeks: WestJet flight 296 from Calgary to Regina on July 6 (no information on affected rows is available) and July 4: Air Canada 7947 from Toronto to Regina, rows 14 to 20.

Health authorities in B.C. say four affected flights have landed in Vancouver in the last two weeks.

They are: Air Canada 8421 from Kelowna on July 6; Air Canada 311 from Montreal on July 8; American Airlines 1270 from Dallas on July 6; and, United Airlines 375 from San Francisco on July 7. Affected rows are not listed for any of these flights.

Manitoba has kept a running tally of affected flights since the beginning of March that includes 43 domestic and international flights either departing from or landing at a Canadian airport that have had one or more passengers test positive for COVID-19. 

Alberta, Ontario, Quebec and the Atlantic provinces don’t specifically post information about flights affected by COVID-19.

On July 8, the Nova Scotia Health Authority did warn of potential exposure on a June 26 Air Canada flight (AC 626) from Toronto to Halifax. 

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The list keeps growing and that is not good for the industry.

New coronavirus exposures reported on 4 B.C. flights, 3 of them headed to Alberta

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By Simon Little Global News
Posted July 15, 2020 7:25 pm
 Updated July 15, 2020 7:39 pm
The B.C. Centre for Disease Control has identified four new flights with potential coronavirus exposures.

The B.C. Centre for Disease Control has identified four new flights with potential coronavirus exposures. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Andrew Vaughan

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The B.C. Centre for Disease Control (BC CDC) has flagged four new flights for possible exposure to COVID-19.

The BC CDC recommends passengers on the affected flights self-isolate and monitor for symptoms for 14 days from the date of travel.

Cases have been identified on the following flights:

  • July 2: West Jet flight 460 – Kelowna to Calgary
  • July 5: Korean Air flight 071 – Incheon to Vancouver
  • July 5: West Jet flight 186 – Vancouver to Edmonton
  • July 5: West Jet flight 3312 – Kelowna to Edmonton

Under the Quarantine Act, anyone arriving in British Columbia from outside of Canada is required to self-isolate and monitor for symptoms of COVID-19 for 14 days upon arrival and submit a self-isolation plan.

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Flights from B.C. to Calgary report COVID-19 exposures

BY TAYLOR BRAAT

Posted Jul 16, 2020 10:12 am MDT

 

Last Updated Jul 16, 2020 at 10:12 am MDT

 
JOHV506547494.jpg
FILE -- A WestJet plane takes off from Vancouver International Airport in Vancouver on Monday, May 13, 2019. Onex Corp. has signed a friendly deal to buy WestJet Airlines Ltd. in a transaction it valued at $5 billion, including assumed debt. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jonathan Hayward
 
 

CALGARY (660 NEWS) – Two more flights into Calgary are reported to have a confirmed case of COVID-19, according to the Canadian government’s website.

A flight from Kelowna to Calgary on July 2 had an exposure of COVID-19, and a flight from Vancouver to Calgary on June 11.

Both were WestJet flights.

ICYMI:

Two flights from BC to Edmonton and one to Calgary reported to have known COVID exposures.

This, as Dr. Hinshaw mentioned a rising number of cases in Alberta tied to travel to the coast. #yeg #yyc #ableg #COVID19AB pic.twitter.com/qWOF30i0yO

— Courtney Theriault (@cspotweet) July 16, 2020

 

READ MORE: Two international flights with COVID-19 flew into Calgary this month

Reported cases on domestic flights seem to be increasing as air travel opens up.

A Manitoba woman who tested positive traveled on WestJet flight 261 from Winnipeg to Calgary June 27 and then flew back to Winnipeg on flight 526 on July 2.

If you have travelled recently by plane, train or cruise ship, click here to find out if you might have been exposed to COVID-19.

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It comes down to this, either we accept the risk and open up airline travel or we insist that no one can fly unless they pass a test to establish that they are not a carrier, that includes crews. As that will never work, then perhaps accepting the risk is the only salvation for airline and other travel. It has been proven that "self isolation and enforcement of that does not work" so why continue to pretend that it does?  
Sure, non enforcement may spread the virus but that might just suit those who point out the current population of the world is too big and windrowing must happen if the planet is to survive.  The rub with that is who should be sacrificed etc.  Where is Solomon  when we need the modern equivalent, who will make the decisions  and  be accountable for the necessary sacrifices? I guess only the history books of the future will tell the tale, if there is anyone left to write them. 

In the mean time the press is covering "real problems".   Maritime craft brewers concerned over ‘scarce’ supply of beer cans  https://globalnews.ca/news/7185193/maritime-breweries-scarce-can-supply/

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Norway is well into the development of a testing system similar to breathalyzers that provides a COVID result in 3 minutes. Something like that could be a game changer not only for airlines, but at border crossings too.

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12 hours ago, J.O. said:

Norway is well into the development of a testing system similar to breathalyzers that provides a COVID result in 3 minutes. Something like that could be a game changer not only for airlines, but at border crossings too.

There are a number of fast test systems in development[ - in most cases, the hardware is ready but they need to achieve low enough rates of false negatives and false positives in order to go into general use. Air Canada has a deal with Spartan Bioscience of Ottawa for such a system, but it needs to be improved upon in order to be put into general use.

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Coronavirus exposures reported on 2 more flights through Vancouver

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By Simon Little Global News
Posted July 18, 2020 6:38 pm

The B.C. Centre for Disease Control (BC CDC) is notifying the public of two new coronavirus exposures on flights in or out of the Vancouver International Airport.

Both flights took place on Monday, July 13:

  • Air Canada flight 111 from Toronto to Vancouver
  • Air Canada flight 8073 from Vancouver to Victoria

The BC CDC is advising passengers on both flights to self-isolate and monitor for symptoms for 14 days.3:52B.C.’s top doctor doubles down on air travel during the pandemic

B.C.’s top doctor doubles down on air travel during the pandemic

Anyone who develops symptoms is urged to call 811 to arrange for a test immediately.

On Thursday, B.C.’s provincial health officer expressed frustration with airlines over their collection of passenger data.

[ Sign up for our Health IQ newsletter for the latest coronavirus updates ]

Dr. Bonnie Henry said she wants to see airlines collect names and phone numbers for all passengers, information she says is often not included on flight manifests.

The BC CDC has issued exposure alerts for 17 flights in or out of the province since June 3.

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Alarming headline but I do wonder what the actual number of people who got the virus from their exposure.  I guess we may never know.

At least 561 flights in Canada had possible coronavirus exposures since pandemic began

News from Global News – link to story

By Brian Hill Global News |

July 23, 2020 1:00 am Updated July 23, 2020

Hundreds of flights have taken off and landed at Canadian airports with passengers who were either confirmed positive or suspected of having COVID-19 since the start of the novel coronavirus pandemic.

While the majority of these flights occurred in March, before border restrictions were implemented, data obtained by Global News shows there has been an uptick in suspected cases on board flights in recent weeks compared to April and May, when the number of people flying was at its lowest.

This increase has public health experts and the union that represents thousands of flight attendants in Canada urging the government and airlines to remain vigilant in maintaining, even expanding, safety measures.

“Long before there was community spread, COVID-19 was coming into the country on airplanes,” said Troy Winters, senior health and safety officer at the Canadian Union of Public Employees.

“We were quite concerned, right from the get go.”BORDER_SEPERATION.jpg?w=635&quality=70&strip=allWATCH: Coronavirus: Some Canadian cross-border families still unable to reunite

In total, 561 flights with confirmed or suspected cases of COVID-19 arrived at or departed from Canadian airports between Feb. 4 and July 18, according to data provided by the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC).

Of these, 200 flights were listed as domestic and 361 were international.

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More than two-thirds of possible exposures — 397 in total — occurred in March. There were then 32 flights with possible exposures in April, 27 in May, 61 in June and 42 in the first two weeks of July.

Only two flights — both departing from Toronto — were listed in February.

READ MORE: International air travel to Canada continues to rise, despite coronavirus border restrictions

In terms of flights arriving from international locations, London, U.K. had the highest number of possible exposures with 41 flights in total. Frankfurt had 19 possible exposures, Cancun 18, while New York and Newark, NJ combined for 16 flights.

Domestically, Toronto had the highest number of departing flights with possible exposures at 97, Vancouver had 51, Calgary 35 and Montreal 23.

The data, however, is “not exhaustive,” so there could be other cases of possible exposures the government is not aware of.

raw_4006_covid_19_flight_exposures_2-2.p

How safe is flying?

Airlines and travel groups — including Air Canada’s CEO — have pressed the government to open up the border and ease certain travel restrictions, citing the economic harm to the tourism industry caused by the novel coronavirus pandemic.

But public health experts and government officials have pushed back against these ideas, including Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who in late June warned of the possible risks of increasing travel too soon.

And while governments and public health experts seem to agree on the importance of maintaining border restrictions, there are still questions about how safe the actual act of flying is from the public and government health officials.

When Air Canada and WestJet announced in late June that they’d resume selling the middle seat on flights, passengers and airline personnel expressed concern.edit_here.00_00_00_20.Still472.jpg?w=635&quality=70&strip=allWATCH: Coronavirus: Canada’s top doctor comments on airlines selling middle seat on flights

Canada’s chief public health officer, Dr. Theresa Tam, suggested airlines should consider a passengers’ underlying health conditions and other circumstances when assigning seats, adding that physical distancing of two metres should be maintained whenever possible.

But as recently as Monday, Transport Minister Marc Garneau remarked on the relative safety of travelling by air.

He said there have been no documented cases of COVID-19 transmission linked directly to air travel and that measures currently in place to slow the spread of the virus have been effective.

“With everything that is being done on aircraft, with respect to cleaning between flights, with respect to the air flow system, with the way the air flows on the aircraft, there is no evidence, there is not a case yet of somebody actually picking up the virus on board the aircraft,” Garneau said during an interview with CBC.

Global News requested information from Garneau’s office regarding government efforts to track the risk of contracting COVID-19 onboard a plane. No information was provided and the request was referred to Health Canada.

Meanwhile, Dr. Isaac Bogoch, an infectious disease specialist at Toronto General Hospital, said the best scientific evidence available doesn’t support claims that air travel is risky.

He said air filtration and preventative measures — such as mandating that masks be worn at all times and providing hand sanitizer to passengers — make transmission of the virus unlikely when flying. He also said possible exposures would likely be limited to people sitting beside, in front or behind an infected person.

“If the question is, can you get COVID-19 on an airplane, the answer is, yes, of course you can. But I think the risk is much smaller than what people think,” Bogoch said.

Mandatory vs. voluntary requirements

For Winters, the number one thing he’d like to see from the government is stricter requirements on what airlines must do to keep employees safe.

So far, he said, most of the measures put in place by the airlines to protect workers have been voluntary, such as limiting meal service, restricting use of front washrooms for staff only, using private transportation to and from airports, and wearing N95-certified masks while onboard.

Winters would like to see these precautions and any other best practices made mandatory.

“We’ve been very disappointed with the level of government recommendations,” he said. “The government has been very hands off.”TrudeauThumber1.jpg?w=635&quality=70&strip=allCoronavirus outbreak: Canada, U.S. extend border closure agreement until Aug. 21

For others, however, the main issue is making sure existing protocols meant to stop the spread of the virus are maintained once people arrive at their final destinations.

Dr. Craig Jenne, an infectious disease and microbiology expert at the University of Calgary, said enforcing the 14-day quarantine for anyone who enters Canada is critical to limiting the spread of COVID-19.

He also said public health officials and governments must be weary about allowing travellers to enter Canada, especially travellers from countries that haven’t done as well with testing.

“There’s a bit of a worry with relying on real-time data for a disease that has a 10- to 14-day lagtime,” Jenne said.

“Numbers we see today reflect the transmission events that happened almost two weeks ago. So we do have to be particularly cautious.”TrudeauThumber2.jpg?w=635&quality=70&strip=allCoronavirus: Trudeau says ‘complex’ situation in the U.S. means no firm timetable on border reopening

Still, there are some measures Jenne thinks could potentially reduce the length of quarantines, such as testing everyone at the border and then testing them again several days later before deciding whether to lift the quarantine.

This, he said, could reduce the duration of quarantines from 14 days to as little as four or five days.

However, absent this type of widespread, repeat testing for all travellers who enter Canada, longer isolations are still necessary because the type of screening done for airline passengers — including temperature checks and asking about any signs of sickness — are largely ineffective.

“We have to be very cautious of these tests that are looking for symptoms or conditions of the virus and not looking for the actual presence of the virus in travellers,” he said.

Global News asked the government what steps it takes after it lists a flight as having had a possible COVID-19 exposure, such as contact tracing, testing and notifying passengers.

The government did not answer these questions.

— With files from Heather Yourex-West.

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flights with possible Covid-19 Exposure.....100%

if anything less than 100% of the travelling public is tested for the virus then there is a 100% chance of POSSIBLE exposure to the virus on a flight.

It is also  100% possible that the plane you are on will crash.  Those possibilities are mitigated to the maximum extent possible but the possibility is never eliminated.

We currently have no idea at all how many people have, have had, will have, Covid-19 until every last person on earth is tested weekly.  until then we just report the numbers we know.

How many have been tested

How many tested positive when tested

how many tested negative when tested

how many have died

That is a very small percentage of the 7 billion people on the planet at this point.

 

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52 minutes ago, boestar said:

flights with possible Covid-19 Exposure.....100%

if anything less than 100% of the travelling public is tested for the virus then there is a 100% chance of POSSIBLE exposure to the virus on a flight.

It is also  100% possible that the plane you are on will crash.  Those possibilities are mitigated to the maximum extent possible but the possibility is never eliminated.

We currently have no idea at all how many people have, have had, will have, Covid-19 until every last person on earth is tested weekly.  until then we just report the numbers we know.

How many have been tested

How many tested positive when tested

how many tested negative when tested

how many have died

That is a very small percentage of the 7 billion people on the planet at this point.

 

You are right but then what would the news outlets do for attention capturing  headlines? 😀

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7 hours ago, boestar said:

flights with possible Covid-19 Exposure.....100%

if anything less than 100% of the travelling public is tested for the virus then there is a 100% chance of POSSIBLE exposure to the virus on a flight.

It is also  100% possible that the plane you are on will crash.  Those possibilities are mitigated to the maximum extent possible but the possibility is never eliminated.

We currently have no idea at all how many people have, have had, will have, Covid-19 until every last person on earth is tested weekly.  until then we just report the numbers we know.

How many have been tested

How many tested positive when tested

how many tested negative when tested

how many have died

That is a very small percentage of the 7 billion people on the planet at this point.

 

I don't know how much of that is tongue-in-cheek ( if any),  but may I suggest that an alternative ( more positive) approach is to postulate that 1) ALL aircraft will arrive safely at their intended or alternative destination and, 2) no one has been infected with the Covid virus.

With respect to (2), we reduce from 100% uninfected by reference to those known to be infected. We quickly learn, based on current numbers, that 99% are uninfected. That is a more palatable percentage...agreed?

And as it relates to (1), the percentage of deviation is significantly less. As a non-pilot, that makes me feel a LOT better.

It's not " all about me"....but...

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Read this Mike Rowe post on Facebook today. Makes a lot of sense.

https://www.facebook.com/TheRealMikeRowe/posts/3445993122077473?__tn__=K-R

Mike. In a recent post, you said you’ve been to Tennessee and Georgia, giving speeches and filming for your new show. Before that, you were on the road shooting for Dirty Jobs. Is it really so important to film a television show in the midst of pandemic? Is it responsible of you to encourage this kind of behavior when infection rates are spiking? Don’t you watch the news? More and more cases every day – aren’t you concerned?

Darlene Gabon

Hi Darlene

Of course, I’m concerned. I’m just not petrified.

On March 15th, the day after my part of the country was locked down, I posted a link to an interview with Dr. Michael Osterholm. I’m posting it again, because I believe you and everyone else in the country would benefit from listening carefully to what he has to say. https://bit.ly/2WLOM6o

Dr. Osterholm is the Director of Infectious Disease Research and Policy. This is the same epidemiologist who ten years ago, predicted a coronavirus would come from China and turn our country upside down. In his book “Deadliest Enemies,” he anticipated the utterly irresponsible way in which the media would report on the situation, the completely opportunistic and shamelessly political way our leaders would likely react, and the unprecedented chaos and confusion that would arise from all the mixed messages from the medical community. His resume is unexampled, https://bit.ly/3jvzQTW, and his analysis of the situation is the most logical and persuasive of any I’d heard so far. He’s also the only expert I know of who hasn’t walked back his numbers, reconsidered his position, or moved the goalposts with regard to what we must do, what we can do, and what he expects to happen next. I say all of this because Dr. Osterholm publicly predicted - in early MArch - that we could conservatively see over 100 million COVID cases in this country, with a very strong possibility of 480,000 fatalities – even if we successfully “flattened the curve.”

It took me a few weeks to accept this scenario, because 480,000 fatalities is a frightening number, and lot of other experts were saying lots of conflicting things. But eventually, I came to the conclusion that Dr. Osterholm was probably correct, and quickly navigated the four stages of grief that usually precede acceptance – denial, anger, bargaining, and depression. By late April, I had come to accept Dr. Osterholm’s predictions as a matter of fact. Since then, I’ve had three full months to come to terms with the fact that, a) I am probably going to get COVID-19 at some point, b), I am almost certainly going to survive it, and c), I might very well give it to someone else.

I hope that doesn’t sound blasé, or glib, or fatalistic, or selfish. Four-hundred eighty thousand deaths is an obvious tragedy, and I’m deeply sympathetic to all who have been impacted thus far. I’m also very concerned for my parents, and everyone else in a high risk category. But when Dr. Osterholm says that COVID can be slowed but not stopped, I believe him. When he says a vaccine will not necessarily hasten herd immunity, I believe him. And when he says that people have confused “flattening the curve” with "eliminating the virus," I believe him.

Thus, for the last three months, I’ve been operating from the assumption that this is a year-round virus that’s eventually going to infect 100 million people and kill roughly 1/2 of one percent of those infected, conservatively. I’ve accepted those numbers. Unfortunately, millions of others have not. Many people have no sense of where this is headed, and I understand why. They've been betrayed by a hysterical media that insists on covering each new reported case as if it were the first case. Every headline today drips with dread, as the next doomed hotspot approaches the next "grim milestone." And so, for a lot of people, everyday is Groundhogs Day. They're paralyzed by the rising numbers because the numbers have no context. They don't know where it will end. But Dr. Osterholm says he does, and I'm persuaded that he's correct. He might be wrong, and frankly, I hope he is, but either way, he's presented us with a set of projections based on a logical analysis, and accepting those projections has allowed me to move past denial, anger, bargaining, and depression, and get on with my life with a better understanding of what the risks really are.

Fact is, we the people can accept almost anything if we’re given the facts, and enough time to get evaluate the risk and make our own decisions. Last year in this country, there were six million traffic accidents and 36,000 fatalities. Tragic, for sure. But imagine for a moment if no one had ever died from a car accident. Imagine if this year, America endured six million traffic accidents and 36,000 fatalities...for the first time ever. Now, imagine if these accidents and fatalities - over 16,000 and 90 per day respectively - imagine if they were reported upon like every new incidence of COVID. What would that do to our willingness to drive? For a while, I suspect it would keep us all off the roads, right? I mean, six million accidents out of the blue is a lot to process, and 36,000 deaths is scary – especially if you don’t know how high that number could get. It would take us a while to access the risk, before we blindly hopped into our cars again. Eventually though - after getting some context and perspective - we'd be able to evaluate the relative danger of operating a motor vehicle. Then, we could decide for ourselves when to drive, where to drive, and how much to drive. And so we do.

Again, don’t misunderstand. I’m not ignoring COVID, or downplaying COVID, or pretending the risks at hand aren’t real. Nor am I comparing COVID cases to car accidents - I'm simply comparing the fear of each to the other, and the fear that always accompanies uncertainty. I don’t want to get this disease or give it to someone else, any more than I want to be in a car car wreck that injures someone else. But I've accepted certain things about the pandemic, and now, I've gotten used to the risk as I understand it. I take precautions. I get tested as often as I can, and if I can't physically distance, I wear a mask – especially around higher risk people. Likewise, I wear a seatbelt, obey the speed limits, and check my mirrors before changing lanes. Yes - I’m aware that we’d all be a lot safer if we kept our cars in the garage. I’m also aware we’d be a lot safer if we all kept ourselves in the house. But that’s not why cars, or people, exist.

Anyway Darlene, that’s a long way of saying that I have accepted Dr. Osterholm’s numbers, and now, after three months of acceptance, I’ve made a decision on how I wish to live my life. Sooner or later, you will too. We all will.

Mike

PS. My foundation is selling masks to raise money for our next work-ethic scholarship program. They're going fast...

https://www.bfit540.com/products/mike-rowe-works-face-mask

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I like Mike Rowe's take on it, but sadly, too many others who are advocating for things to be fully "open" are also refusing to take the precautions he's taking when they're necessary. I'm pretty sure he wears his seatbelt and respects speed limits because he understands the consequences, but too many people only wear a seatbelt because it's "the law" and only obey the speed limit when they think they might get caught. 

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