Industry campaigns for the easing of Canadian travel restrictions

[dagger]

3 minutes ago, Turbofan said:

I was stating this at the beginning.  Corona viruses mutate too quickly and our immune system has a short memory for them.  Herd immunity never occurs for cold viruses that is why the circulate so easily.  These are the same reasons why many are sceptical of a vaccine.  

But the statement leads one to believe immunity is not part of the long term solution. That’s not true.  The problem right now is that our immune system doesn’t recognize the virus.  The virus multiplies without confrontation from the immune system to a point that becomes lethal.  Once our immune system starts to recognize the virus it will oppose it from the start.  Making it less lethal.

It didn’t go away. It never will. Our bodies slowly start to recognize it and deal wth it.  When that happens on a large scale we will call it a cold.

To see this already happening in stats look at the cases vs death rates diverge from each other.  Initially cases and death will climb together as our immune system doesn’t do anything. Then immune systems will start to fight back cases will continue to climb as death drops.

Herd immunity is never achieved.  We keep spreading that cold.  But we no longer care because it’s just a cold.

As the WHO notes, herd immunity is achieved via vaccination. If Covid was just a cold, you'd have a point. We wouldn't care. But besides death and hospitalization rates and costs, we have come to recognize that there is a phenomenon, more widespread with each passing week, of people who suffer long term symptoms that render them unable to work. These are the so-called long haulers who suffer cardio-vascular or other damage that will have an ongoing economic cost to our healthcare system, and allowing the virus to run rampant as opposed to taking measures to contain its spread will have a growing effect that lesser viruses like the flu or the common cold don't seem to have.

 

[Turbofan]

37 minutes ago, dagger said:

As the WHO notes, herd immunity is achieved via vaccination. If Covid was just a cold, you'd have a point. We wouldn't care. But besides death and hospitalization rates and costs, we have come to recognize that there is a phenomenon, more widespread with each passing week, of people who suffer long term symptoms that render them unable to work. These are the so-called long haulers who suffer cardio-vascular or other damage that will have an ongoing economic cost to our healthcare system, and allowing the virus to run rampant as opposed to taking measures to contain its spread will have a growing effect that lesser viruses like the flu or the common cold don't seem to have.

 

Can you post where the WHO states herd immunity is achieved via vaccine?  I have heard them warn the opposite.  Certainly the vaccine will help the population reach a state where more and more of our immune systems recognize it.  But it can’t achieve herd immunity.  It’s not possible for a cold.

Covid 19 is a cold.  The only difference is people are getting extra sick because our immune system is not reacting immediately.  Lung scarring for example because the cold virus ran unopposed too long.  That stops once our immune system recognizes the virus and attacks immediately.  This of course assumes Covid operates as expected.  Problem is we don’t know for certain.  But it’s likely the case.

The place you will see this starting to happen is the cases vs death stats.

Those stats are indicating that in the initial hit places virus spread was likely way way higher than we realize. Put another way the virus must have naturally vaccinated a lot of people. The drop in death vs cases tells us many people’s immune systems in the UK, for example, now recognize Covid and fought it off.

SARS, also a corona virus, followed the same path.  Initially cases and death climbed in tandem. After the first wave cases climbed but death dropped off.  Yet we did the same thing.  We kept up the hyper vigilance on cases even though death dropped way off.

 

 

[Turbofan]

These stats indicate a population that was hit with no immunity.  The next wave should look like the UK.  Hopefully.

 

[Guest]

29 minutes ago, dagger said:

Taking the forecast from UAL today that biz travel will only return to normal in 2024 (I'm more bullish, I think it will be mid-2022), I'd say some countries have wasted a massive pile of money by trying to sustain too much airline capacity. They may need second and third rounds of bailouts. I don't know when and to what extent our government will act, but I do suspect if it does, it will target a level of activity sufficient to meet current needs, not some pie-in-the-sky notion of imminent recovery that motivated bailouts in places like the US and Germany.

I agree, no longer can we afford to over flights every hour between the same destinations when there is a lower than break even load factor on the majority.  

[J.O.]

No vaccine has been developed for the common cold because it doesn't kill or maim enough of the population to warrant it. The skeptic in me also feels that the pharmaceutical industry makes a ton of money on cold "medicines" which really only mask the symptoms and delay the length of suffering, thus helping them to sell even more of their products. Not much of a motivator for developing a vaccine.

Edited October 15, 2020 by J.O.

[Turbofan]

35 minutes ago, J.O. said:

No vaccine has been developed for the common cold because it doesn't kill or maim enough of the population to warrant it. The skeptic in me also feels that the pharmaceutical industry makes a ton of money on cold "medicines" which really only mask the symptoms and delay the length of suffering, thus helping them to sell even more of their products. Not much of a motivator for developing a vaccine.

My understanding is there has never been a vaccine for the common cold because it is a constantly moving target.  Constantly mutating.  The R&D costs can't be recovered.  You would need a new Vaccine every few months. The costs of the Covid vaccine won't be recovered either.  It is only with government money that makes it commercially viable.  Even this vaccine has a good chance of becoming redundant quickly.

Looking at the UK above as an example, mother nature may take care of a vast majority of the immunity issue before mankind has a vaccine.

There is no profit in it.

 

[conehead]

I believe there is over 160 mutations or variations of the virus that causes the common cold that constantly circulate. That's why there is no vaccine: you can't hit that moving target.

[UpperDeck]

One observation made some time ago but not referenced here though relevant is the discovery that many asymptomatic persons had active T-cell responses that were almost immediate. Imagine T-cells as our primary line of defence. If our body is attacked and is prepared ( the T-cells are armed and ready), the virus can be repelled. For reasons as yet unknown, the immune systems of SOME individuals recognized the Covid virus and were " armed and ready". This fact reinforces the arguments that Covid-19 is a variant or was introduced much earlier than initially believed.

It also supports Turbofan's position that our own immune systems, given sufficient time and opportunity, will render the virus "harmless" (relatively).

[J.O.]

As time passes the virus will (hopefully) lose the “novel” moniker and be better understood. I read today that people with “O” blood type who’ve required hospitalization have on average spent fewer days in hospital; in an ICU or on a ventilator than patients with other blood types, particularly “AB-“.  They don’t know why, but it’s an aspect worth exploring further.

[Turbofan]

14 hours ago, UpperDeck said:

One observation made some time ago but not referenced here though relevant is the discovery that many asymptomatic persons had active T-cell responses that were almost immediate. Imagine T-cells as our primary line of defence. If our body is attacked and is prepared ( the T-cells are armed and ready), the virus can be repelled. For reasons as yet unknown, the immune systems of SOME individuals recognized the Covid virus and were " armed and ready". This fact reinforces the arguments that Covid-19 is a variant or was introduced much earlier than initially believed.

It also supports Turbofan's position that our own immune systems, given sufficient time and opportunity, will render the virus "harmless" (relatively).

https://globalnews.ca/news/7119856/coronavirus-sewage-barcelona-march-2019/

 

Spanish virologists have found traces of the novel coronavirus in a sample of Barcelona waste water collected in March 2019, nine months before the COVID-19 disease was identified in China, the University of Barcelona said on Friday.

 

https://www.sciencealert.com/40-of-people-with-covid-19-don-t-have-symptoms-latest-cdc-estimate-says

CDC increases their estimate for asymptomatic from 35% to 40%.  Initial estimate was 25%. Decreases their estimate for how infectious asymptomatic are from 100% to 75%.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/17/santa-clara-covid-19-antibody-study-suggests-broad-asymptomatic-spread.html

Study from April in Santa Clara California, suggesting broad based asymptomatic spread had already happened.

Ultimately, he said, “It adds to growing body of work that suggests a huge amount of cases that went undetected.”

[Turbofan]

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/chris-selley-swedens-covid-experience-offers-us-important-lessons-not-all-of-them-cautionary
 

An interesting comparison of death/million between Sweden and other countries that locked down.  It’s not a defence of Sweden.  Simply points out that no lockdown vs lockdown did equally bad.  Inability to protect the elderly a key component of the list.

In an earlier post I stated Canada was hit moderately by the pandemic.  That statement is false when looked at from the perspective of death/million.  Quebec in particular was one of the hardest hit areas in the world.  

Deaths per million total population.

Sweden (584) Italy (602), Quebec (702) Spain (718)

Deaths per million city.

Stockholm (1,009) Madrid (1,471), Montreal (1,705) New York City (2,310)

 

So I figured that warranted checking out Quebec’s stats on Cases vs Death.

 

Source https://www.quebec.ca/en/health/health-issues/a-z/2019-coronavirus/situation-coronavirus-in-quebec/

 

[boestar]

On 10/15/2020 at 5:24 PM, conehead said:

I believe there is over 160 mutations or variations of the virus that causes the common cold that constantly circulate. That's why there is no vaccine: you can't hit that moving target.

There is no vaccine for the common cold because of the ZERO mortality rate and the fact that they make far more money of symptom relief rather than a cure.  Let people get a cold because they will not die from it and we can sell them all kinds of other meds to provide relief from the symptoms .  Economics 101

 

[Guest]

Aviation workers to hold a rally on Parlament Hill on October 20th, 2020 at noon Français

---

NEWS PROVIDED BY

Aviation workers 

Oct 19, 2020, 10:00 ET

SHARE THIS ARTICLE

•  

---

OTTAWA, ON, Oct. 19, 2020 /CNW/ - Aviation workers will be holding a peaceful rally on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on October 20^th, 2020 at noon to demand from the Government of Canada concrete measures for a safe reopening of the aviation industry. As aviation industry workers made redundant in Canada, we are looking for concrete measures from the federal government to safely restart the aviation industry and contribute to the recovery of the Canadian economy.

Our Facebook group was started in early September by airline pilots, who felt that aviation industry workers were forgotten during the COVID-19 pandemic. The issue has struck a responsive chord, with 9,000 members joining within 5 days.

Over 11,000 members strong today, our group represents all aviation industry employees whose lives and livelihoods were destroyed by the demise of the Canadian air travel industry. We are pilots and flight attendants; flight dispatchers; crew schedulers; ground personnel; airport personnel; catering; cleaners; ticket agents; travel agents; tour operators; and people of many other professions within the commercial aviation industry.

Among the strictest in the world, air travel restrictions imposed by the Canadian government since March 2020 to stem the spread of COVID-19, also brought the commercial aviation industry to nearly a complete halt. For nearly 8 months, there was no clear message from our government on specific measures in place to gradually restart the industry.

Aviation is a key driver of the Canadian economy. A major employer, air transport industry provides livelihood to over 633,000 Canadians via direct and indirect wages and induced spending. It is also the only rapid worldwide transportation network, essential for global business. It plays a vital role in generating economic growth and facilitating international trade. Grounded airplanes disrupt not only business and tourism travel, but make it impossible to deliver emergency medical supplies, foreign temporary workers to help Canadian farmers, or fresh fruits and vegetables to your table.

We demand concrete measures from the federal government to safely restart the aviation industry for the benefit of all Canadians.

For more information on our group, Aviation workers made redundant in Canada by the COVID-19 crisis, go to https://www.facebook.com/groups/3564215546923455

[Turbofan]

https://financialpost.com/news/economy/eu-may-shut-door-to-travel-from-canada-allow-singapore-visitors

EU May shut travel to EU from Canada.

The original order required respiratory which Canada obviously didn’t do.

 

[rudder]

On 10/15/2020 at 2:26 PM, dagger said:

Taking the forecast from UAL today that biz travel will only return to normal in 2024 (I'm more bullish, I think it will be mid-2022), I'd say some countries have wasted a massive pile of money by trying to sustain too much airline capacity. They may need second and third rounds of bailouts. I don't know when and to what extent our government will act, but I do suspect if it does, it will target a level of activity sufficient to meet current needs, not some pie-in-the-sky notion of imminent recovery that motivated bailouts in places like the US and Germany.

50% capacity for summer 2022. 80% capacity for summer 2023. 100%(?) for summer 2024.

That is 5 years to get back to summer 2019 capacity. Airlines should plan accordingly.

[Guest]

On 10/19/2020 at 11:27 AM, Malcolm said:

Aviation workers to hold a rally on Parlament Hill on October 20th, 2020 at noon Français

---

NEWS PROVIDED BY

Aviation workers 

Oct 19, 2020, 10:00 ET

SHARE THIS ARTICLE

•  

---

OTTAWA, ON, Oct. 19, 2020 /CNW/ - Aviation workers will be holding a peaceful rally on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on October 20^th, 2020 at noon to demand from the Government of Canada concrete measures for a safe reopening of the aviation industry. As aviation industry workers made redundant in Canada, we are looking for concrete measures from the federal government to safely restart the aviation industry and contribute to the recovery of the Canadian economy.

Our Facebook group was started in early September by airline pilots, who felt that aviation industry workers were forgotten during the COVID-19 pandemic. The issue has struck a responsive chord, with 9,000 members joining within 5 days.

Over 11,000 members strong today, our group represents all aviation industry employees whose lives and livelihoods were destroyed by the demise of the Canadian air travel industry. We are pilots and flight attendants; flight dispatchers; crew schedulers; ground personnel; airport personnel; catering; cleaners; ticket agents; travel agents; tour operators; and people of many other professions within the commercial aviation industry.

Among the strictest in the world, air travel restrictions imposed by the Canadian government since March 2020 to stem the spread of COVID-19, also brought the commercial aviation industry to nearly a complete halt. For nearly 8 months, there was no clear message from our government on specific measures in place to gradually restart the industry.

Aviation is a key driver of the Canadian economy. A major employer, air transport industry provides livelihood to over 633,000 Canadians via direct and indirect wages and induced spending. It is also the only rapid worldwide transportation network, essential for global business. It plays a vital role in generating economic growth and facilitating international trade. Grounded airplanes disrupt not only business and tourism travel, but make it impossible to deliver emergency medical supplies, foreign temporary workers to help Canadian farmers, or fresh fruits and vegetables to your table.

We demand concrete measures from the federal government to safely restart the aviation industry for the benefit of all Canadians.

For more information on our group, Aviation workers made redundant in Canada by the COVID-19 crisis, go to https://www.facebook.com/groups/3564215546923455

So how did the rally go?  Def. lack of any press coverage that I could find.

[Airband]

10 minutes ago, Malcolm said:

So how did the rally go?

Hundreds of protesting airline workers aim anger at transport minister

 

[Specs]

It's all kind of moot now isn't it.  The ban below will include much of the Caribbean.  Canadian travellers not allowed in EU

 

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/eu-shuts-door-to-travel-from-canada-lets-in-singapore-visitors-1.1511061

[FA@AC]

 

https://torontosun.com/news/national/breaking-rapid-testing-at-airports-to-replace-mandatory-quarantine-for-international-travellers?fbclid=IwAR280lr7I2UYX72irnCuN-8EFDMkW0GOFfkqPCTuTuEdQGMoBKvXy_DoqSs

Edit.  More detail here:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-covid-19-test-border-pilot-1.5772637

Edited October 22, 2020 by FA@AC

[Guest]

 

Alberta to host rapid COVID-19 testing pilot of international travellers

Jordan KanyginCTV News Calgary Video Journalist

@CTVJKanygin Contact

Published Thursday, October 22, 2020 10:54AM MDTLast Updated Thursday, October 22, 2020 11:03AM MDT

Signage at the Calgary airport in March 2020 informing travellers of Alberta Health's recommendation that people arriving from outside Canada should self-isolate for 14 days, even if feeling well.

SHARE

CALGARY -- The federal government and Government of Alberta are set to introduce a joint pilot program for testing international travellers that would replace the mandatory 14-day quarantine.

Beginning Nov. 2, international travellers will undergo rapid COVID-19 testing upon their arrival at the Calgary International Airport and the Coutts border crossing between Alberta and Montana. Travellers will be required to go into quarantine until they are confirmed negative.

Returning Canadian citizens, permanent residents and foreign nationals who are without symptoms and have been permitted to enter the country are eligible for the testing.

NEW: The Alberta and Federal Governments are partnering with industry on a pilot project to replace the mandatory 14-day quarantine for international travellers with voluntary rapid testing. It’ll start in early November at Coutts border and Calgary Airport. #ableg #yyc pic.twitter.com/l3m5bMH7Ro

— Jordan Kanygin (@CTVJKanygin) October 22, 2020

This is a developing story. It will be updated throughout the day.

[dagger]

This seems to build on the Toronto test program where volunteers were asked to send in test swabs from home. That didn't shorten the quarantine period, but it did show that hardly any arrivals from overseas either had the virus or became infectious while in quarantine. I'd still prefer it if passengers were tested at the airport overseas, say 48 hours in advance, then again on arrival in Canada. That would mathematically reduce the chances of rapid tests failing to pick up positive case. I also suspect that testing outbound passengers from Canada to points overseas would help keep that channel open, as some governments are likely to restrict admission if a person can't objectively prove they are Covid-free at least at that moment.

 

[AIP]

5 hours ago, dagger said:

This seems to build on the Toronto test program where volunteers were asked to send in test swabs from home. That didn't shorten the quarantine period, but it did show that hardly any arrivals from overseas either had the virus or became infectious while in quarantine. I'd still prefer it if passengers were tested at the airport overseas, say 48 hours in advance, then again on arrival in Canada. That would mathematically reduce the chances of rapid tests failing to pick up positive case. I also suspect that testing outbound passengers from Canada to points overseas would help keep that channel open, as some governments are likely to restrict admission if a person can't objectively prove they are Covid-free at least at that moment.

 

Are you suggesting going to the airport in FRA, ZRH, LHR as examples, and have a Covid test, then be allowed to fly 48 hours later ???

It may mathematically reduce the chances, but it is not very practical.

In some places, it is taking between 1.5-3 hours to complete testing after arrival. That has got to improve before things turnaround. 

[FA@AC]

1 hour ago, AIP said:

Are you suggesting going to the airport in FRA, ZRH, LHR as examples, and have a Covid test, then be allowed to fly 48 hours later ???

Pre-flight testing doesn't need to be done at an airport.  United is offering testing through accredited facilities for pax on some its fights to Hawaii as an alternative to quarantine.

[dagger]

Listen, I once travelled from TLV and they required passengers to drop off baggage the night before at a downtown depot for security reasons. If you want to travel these days, going to a test site for  a truly rapid test, getting your boarding pass or travel document stamped, is no big deal.

BTW, who remembers when we needed to be vaccinated for a variety of diseases before being allowed into certain countries. Last night, I dug up my little yellow vaccination booklet. I was vaccinated for smallpox, yellow fever, typhoid and cholera. Many countries won't allow you in without a visa, which is extra work and often expense. Getting a quick Covid test pre-travel - then get tested upon arrival in Canada, would surely not be that big a deal. I'd do it to get to the sub this winter. In this digital age, you wouldn't even have to wait around for the test result. They could just put it into your file in the res computer.

Edited October 23, 2020 by dagger

[Airband]

Covid Travel Curbs Could Cost Canada Half a Million Jobs in 2020

Fri Oct 23, 2020. - Bloomberg News 
By Erik Hertzberg

Limited travel to and throughout Canada is holding back the country’s economic recovery.

Restrictions imposed to slow the spread of coronavirus are expected to cost the country between 400,000 and 500,000 jobs in 2020, according to a study, The Economic Impact of Travel Restrictions on the Canadian Economy due to the COVID-19 Pandemic,  released Friday by Statistics Canada. The reduction in travel will shave off as much as C$37.1 billion ($28.2 billion) or 1.7% from total economic output during the year, the agency says.

The figures put a price tag on Covid-19 travel restrictions. Canada shut its borders to non-essential travel in March, and some provinces also restricted internal trips.

Justin Trudeau’s government is facing pressure to ramp up relief efforts for hard-hit airlines and the tourism sector, but the prime minister indicated he will keep borders closed as long as virus cases stay elevated in the U.S.

Statistics Canada’s estimates, which incorporate ranges of the most pessimistic and optimistic scenarios of reopening travel, include indirect impacts of travel restrictions on other industries. As tourism spending falls, so does “demand for intermediate products and services provided by other industries, such as wholesale and retail trade, utilities, food manufacturing, and other service industries,” the agency said.

Tourism spending in Canada plummeted by nearly two thirds in the second quarter.

The government plans to promote the country as a safe destination for international travel once the pandemic subsides. It has also launched a pilot program that offers Covid-19 tests to travelers arriving in Alberta in an effort to reduce quarantine times.