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330Heavy

3 year plan

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It is without a doubt, and which has been said many times, that this is unprecedented time in aviation.  So my question is, how do those (ie-AC, YVR airport, etc) claim that it will take 3 years to return back to normal?  To me that's just guessing.  This is after-all unprecedented.  There is no measure to go by.  All just ass speak.  Perhaps I'm being optimistic, but I think things will return back to normal much quicker.  People are itching to get outside, to travel.  This is a reminder how easily things can be taken away for most who've taken air travel for granted.  Maybe the 3 year claim is a play for bail out money who knows, but I do think we should take what the "experts" say with a grain a salt. (and to be clear, I'm no expert in anything).  So what do you think of the 3 year call for return to normal?

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1 hour ago, 330Heavy said:

I So what do you think of the 3 year call for return to normal?

Likely reality based on today, who knows what the end of the year will yield but .......

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3 year forecast to full recovery courtesy of Industry analysts, aircraft manufacturers, airline CEO’s. The people with their finger on the pulse and perhaps more importantly the ones who’s opinions matter. They are in control.

Everybody can hope for a better outcome. But these people have to come up with a realistic plan based on what they see. Otherwise it is insolvency.

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Yes, it's simply a case of; hope for the best but plan for the worst.  Do "they" know?  Of course not but they still need to have a plan forward and if they plan for 3 years but it happens quicker, well, probably easier to move things up rather than the opposite.

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It's hard to tell for anyone. Economists do these sort of prediction and forecasting for a living and they still can get it wrong. It's hard to forecast macroeconomics situations that involve so many factors.

Who knows how things will evolve...

Unemployment has reached 13% in Canada. More than 7 million Canadians have applied for the Canada Emergency Response Benefit...

We also have a Country wide real estate bubble that has been the elephant in the room room for years. Combine that with an average consumer debt to income ratio at 179% and it's an interesting mix. (We are among the highest in the world, the US had its ratio reset in 2008 it sits at around 100%, Canada just kept going). What does that mean? It's an added risk to the economy... If the real-estate bubble were to burst, then you would find the Canadian Housing and Mortgage Corp having issues with all these mortgage.... The agency has already forecast a double digit drop in the values of homes. (it varies by region) The CHMC is backstopped by the Canadian government... Hopefully they have sufficient money aside to handle any issues... On the consumer side, people that can't make mortgage payments don't travel much...

The OECD reports Canada has one of the highest household debt to GDP ratio in the world. (#5 in the world at 105%, Link) Such a high level of debt renders Canada quite vulnerable to any economic disruption. The Canadian economy might recover in the same fashion as other world economies due to high levels of consumer debt.

Speaking of government, the Canada central bank which tries to maintain inflation at 2% through monetary policy has it's Bank overnight lending rate down to between 0.25% and 0.50%. The record low rates are meant to stimulate the economy. They can't go much lower so their next tool is to print money, a form of quantitative easing... It's a tool but like anything else, it comes with consequences... Usually in the form of inflation.

On the provincial front, we have a Canadian province trying to sell the world Oil at bargain prices and due to the present geopolitical situation and a transport issue they are struggling. Albertans aren't likely to be the globe hopping bunch they used to be...

This pandemic is also likely to be the piece of straw that breaks the camels back for many small restoration outfits. They can't be expected to pay rent for months if revenue isn't coming in. Some will reopen, many will not... Also, think of dance schools, martial arts schools, community cultural centers, yoga studios, gyms, public pools, arenas... When will they open again?

Right now the entire festival season is cancelled in Montreal and much of the ROC. Concerts are being postponed, organized sports are on hold, parades are cancelled... Our government chose to shut down the economy in order to assess and stabilize the situation with a potentially devastating virus. As far as I know, that hasn't been done before so it's hard to model for the impacts with a high degree of accuracy.

What airline industry CEOs do have to predict tomorrow are sales reports of advanced ticket sales. They know that at this time last year they had sold x % or the July capacity, Y % of the August capacity etc... They know how many seats they are offering (I think I read that AC will be operating 25% of its normal capacity this summer) and what the market is buying (it would be interesting to see what percentage of the capacity they manage to sell). I'd imagine that since the Canadian Carriers will graciously hold and keep your money if things go sour unless you bought a more expensive refundable ticket, advance sales must be even harder to make...

Boeing and Airbus know how many airlines have asked to defer deliveries so they too have a rough idea of how long it may take for air traffic to recover.

I think 2 to 3 years is a definite possibility, it might be longer is the housing market tanks. We will find out soon enough...

Edited by mrlupin
Typoes and added Canadian Debt th GDP reference

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With 9-11 the travel demand took a sudden and precipitous drop that did not come back to 2000 levels for quite a few years.

There is some history to compare with.

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CNN’s daily coverage of COVID-19 with oversized floating virus images and heavy music has had its effect and anyone over 60 will probably avoid travel, leisure or business for some time going forward.

Even though we have a little home supply of masks, gloves and sanitizer, we cannot get any of our retired friends to make a socially distant outdoor, backyard visit. Too  risky they say. No chance they will be flying anywhere soon.

Repeated viewings of the planes hitting the WTC by CNN in 2001 didn’t help air travel either but it slowly returned to normal.

 

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People are sheep. And most can’t think for themselves.  When a number like three years is floated out there, in the interest of a) not having to do any thinking and b) be a sheep and not disturb group think, many others jump onto it as well.

No one knows. People can make plans with various scenarios - and three years being one of them.

The only reason I’m not on a plane right now is because I’m not doing a two-week quarantine on the outbound and inbound.  Who has a month to kill.

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15 minutes ago, internet said:

People are sheep. And most can’t think for themselves.  

 

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Normal....What is normal?   2019 was, indeed NOT normal in so far as aviation is concerned.  The Airlines had experienced unprecedented profits and growth. In fact better than any time in history.  

So what is normal.  I would say look back to 2015 or maybe a year ot two earlier for "Normal" That is where we are headed in the short term.  I truly hope we get back to where we were in 2019 and I hope it happens sooner rather than later.

 

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On 5/29/2020 at 4:10 AM, blues deville said:

 

Even though we have a little home supply of masks, gloves and sanitizer, we cannot get any of our retired friends to make a socially distant outdoor, backyard visit. Too  risky they say. No chance they will be flying anywhere soon.

 

 

We have had friends over for backyard beers etc., after golf we go to the bar and sit six to a table enjoying drinks, no masks, gloves or sanitizer involved.

I do find it odd that the servers wear gloves but they wear the same pair for their shift, what's the point of that?

And what's with people driving alone in their car with a mask on, do they go to bed alone and wear a condom?

 

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On 5/30/2020 at 1:23 PM, mo32a said:

We have had friends over for backyard beers etc., after golf we go to the bar and sit six to a table enjoying drinks, no masks, gloves or sanitizer involved.

I do find it odd that the servers wear gloves but they wear the same pair for their shift, what's the point of that?

And what's with people driving alone in their car with a mask on, do they go to bed alone and wear a condom?

 

Just walked by a bunch of guys fishing along a river, all by themselves here and there and all wearing masks. Are they afraid of getting the virus from, or giving it to, the fish?

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6 hours ago, moeman said:

Just walked by a bunch of guys fishing along a river, all by themselves here and there and all wearing masks. Are they afraid of getting the virus from, or giving it to, the fish?

Protecting each other just in case one of them is carrying the virus.  Goes under the category of "looking after your buddies".  (the mask impedes transmission of the virus, it does not prevent you from getting the virus.) but of course you knew that?

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I don’t understand the objections to the use of a mask (unless there’s a medical reason involved). It’s a simple thing that one gets accustomed to fairly quickly - if one wants to. It reminds me of the “personal freedom” protests we heard when seatbelt laws first came about. My aunt exercised that freedom and she paid for it with her life, leaving behind a dad with four kids to raise.

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13 hours ago, Marshall said:

Protecting each other just in case one of them is carrying the virus.  Goes under the category of "looking after your buddies".  (the mask impedes transmission of the virus, it does not prevent you from getting the virus.) but of course you knew that?

No. Just random guys at different points along the river. They weren't "with" anybody to protect. Just seemed odd to be fishing by yourself with a surgical mask on.

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14 hours ago, moeman said:

No. Just random guys at different points along the river. They weren't "with" anybody to protect. Just seemed odd to be fishing by yourself with a surgical mask on.

Isn't that along the sames lines as the guy driving by himself in his car wearing a  mask ???

 

Go Figure.

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