Will there be an Election 2020 in Canada?


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Did someone suggest snap election?

There won’t be a better time for PM to call vote

  • Calgary Herald
  • 7 May 2020
  • JOHN IVISON National Post jivison@postmedia.com Twitter.com/ivisonj
img?regionKey=6i1Qs0x4N4%2blFoaf3uQdVg%3d%3dFRANK GUNN / POOL VIA REUTERS A Leger poll this week found that a majority of Canadians trust Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and 77 per cent are satisfied with his government’s response to the pandemic.

Italian prime minister Giuseppe Conte’s recent experience should act as a warning to anyone reading too much into opinion polls during a national crisis.

At the height of the country’s COVID outbreak, 94 per cent of Italians supported Conte’s measures and 71 per cent approved of him personally.

Yet, as the health emergency has receded like a flood and revealed the underlying economic devastation, that consensus has dissolved. His critics now charge Conte is incapable of managing an economic emergency he helped create.

A similar collapse in support has occurred in France, where Emmanuel Macron’s approval ratings have fallen because of concerns over low levels of testing and contact tracing, amid shortages of personal protective equipment and high levels of mortality in long-term care homes.

Those examples from countries further along the COVID curve suggest nobody should get too excited about a Leger poll this week that had the Liberals at 44 per cent support, compared to just 25 per cent for the Conservatives. The poll also said a majority trust Justin Trudeau and 77 per cent are satisfied with his government’s response to the pandemic.

Darrell Bricker, a pollster at Ipsos Canada, tweeted that polling of political parties support today is “meaningless” because partisanship has been suspended while voters get behind the government’s recovery plan.

As he pointed out, all governments are hitting historic highs right now. Strictly speaking, that might be true when it comes to the precise numbers. But, they are indicative of the general mood.

As American poet Maya Angelou put it, while people might forget what you said or did, they will never forget how you made them feel.

This crisis might have been tailored to play to Trudeau’s strengths. The response requires empathy and understanding, backed by billions of dollars — a sense that the prime minister feels the pain of the people he serves, even if he is inoculated from it in reality. Those who have benefited from government support are unlikely to overlook it any time soon.

Meanwhile, the prime minister’s political opponents have allowed themselves to be portrayed as heartless, out of touch and inept.

The gun issue is a case in point. The Liberal “ban” may be “incoherent”, in the words of one gun retailer, since it prohibits some semi-automatic weapons but not others, such as the standard issue rifle used by the People’s Liberation Army of China. It also ignores handguns, the weapon of choice in 60 per cent of firearm offences.

Yet Conservative support for what Trudeau called “military style” weapons is a losing proposition in cities, where the party needs to make gains.

Keith Beardsley, a former senior adviser to Stephen Harper, said if he were advising Trudeau, he’d suggest calling a snap election while Andrew Scheer is still Conservative leader.

That’s not likely to happen while COVID cases are still on the rise. There’s opportunism and then there’s naked exploitation.

But former NDP leader Tom Mulcair had a similar thought in his Sun newspaper column. He suggested Trudeau was testing campaign lines during a recent TV appearance.

He pointed out that a prime minister can resign at any time and claim he needs a new mandate to confront the economic predicament facing the country. Mulcair noted that Trudeau has created $10,000 of new debt for every man, woman and child in Canada but he knows there will be another election before he has to bring in new taxes to start dealing with it.

That does not seem unreasonable speculation. One of Trudeau’s senior advisers dismissed such thoughts. “You clearly have too much time on your hands,” he said, adding he didn’t see an election this fall.

Maybe not. But one day, the health emergency will turn into an economic crunch that will likely require tax increases. One day, there will be audits on government initiatives that, inevitably, will unearth massive misspending. One day, memories of government largesse will fade, as the headlines are dominated with bad news. One day, the Conservatives will do the right thing, having tried everything else. And one day, voters will be gripped with a burning desire to turf the prime minister from office.

Wouldn’t Trudeau like to secure another majority before that day comes? Of course he would.

THERE’S OPPORTUNISM AND THEN THERE’S NAKED EXPLOITATION.

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Indeed, maybe auto correct is an NDP invention. It seems that only liberals can elicit that sort of illicit behaviour from a computer.... it causes them to automatically cast all liberals in the 

One of the more delusional posts on this board in quite some time

I don’t think you’d need to compile a list....going through the tyee link...you could easily just insert Trudeau’s name into the wrongdoings!

Posted Images

I say yes.

If I were JT there would be no question about it.... other than the timing. Tactically, riding this out in a minority situation is the worst option IMO as the tide of public opinion will turn. From his perspective, the sooner the better and it's so easy to justify (by circumstances) that even I could do it. 

 

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I don’t foresee an election until at least fall of 2021. Too many newbie MP’s of all stripes don’t have their 6 years in yet in order to qualify for their golden parachute pension for life.

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1 hour ago, Jaydee said:

I don’t foresee an election until at least fall of 2021. Too many newbie MP’s of all stripes don’t have their 6 years in yet in order to qualify for their golden parachute pension for life.

I don't think that would be a consideration, Justin will be willing to bet everything on a win.  I suspect looking after the  Liberals who might lose their pension is not a worry.

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16 hours ago, Marshall said:

Wage subsidy program will be extended past June, says Trudeau

PM says he'll have more details about the extension next week

 

AC17470F-DCB7-4DB5-83F0-F985885C81A2.jpeg

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‘WHY WOULD HE PICK A FIGHT WITH US?’

Trudeau Liberals clash with Legault

  • Calgary Herald
  • 9 May 2020
  • CHRISTOPHER NARDI in Ottawa
img?regionKey=3pQqFNuRzEf4fFwnMbRbzQ%3d%3dGRAHAM HUGHES / THE CANADIAN PRESS Canadian Forces members help out at Villa Val des Arbres, a long-term care home in Laval, Que., on April 19. More than 1,000 military members are now helping the province with its COVID-19 response.

Tensions are rising between Ottawa and Quebec. The Trudeau government is increasingly frustrated by recent barbs thrown at it by Premier François Legault and struggles to understand Quebec’s decision to be the first province to gradually reopen all the while being the hardest hit by the COVID-19 virus.

The National Post spoke to a half-dozen sources working both in ministers’ offices and the PMO. All were granted anonymity so as to speak freely about tensions between their offices and the Quebec government.

All but one spoke of rising frustration within the Trudeau camp towards the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) government.

A sixth source said that “collaboration is better than ever” between the two governments, but conceded that there had been hiccups in communications recently.

Though the relationship remains “positive overall,” the sources think the CAQ is picking fights with Ottawa to deflect attention from its failure to contain the COVID-19 pandemic in the province’s long-term care centres (known as CHSLD).

Federal sources pointed to Legault’s complaints at the beginning of the week that the federal government could have been “faster” to send the 1,000 military members the province had requested to assist CHSLD staff.

The premier claimed Tuesday that only 350 had arrived, and they had never received confirmation that Ottawa would send 1,000 members. The same day, the federal government replied that 760 soldiers were already in the province. By Friday, that number hit 1,020.

“It just doesn’t make sense, why would he pick a fight with us on that?” one high-ranking source said. “The military shouldn’t have to go help in longterm care centres in the first place, why is he blaming us for his problems? It’s purely a diversion.”

“Contrary to what you claim, the collaboration between our two governments is present and our teams have daily exchanges. Our common goals are to fight the virus, protect our citizens and support the economy. Obviously, like elsewhere in the world, nothing is perfect,” said Ewan Sauves, spokesperson for the premier.

But Legault’s complaint about the military’s deployment speed wasn’t his first “surprise” statement that irked federal staffers and ministers. In fact, most of the Trudeau government learned of Legault’s original request for 1,000 members of the Canadian Armed Forces through a press conference on April 22.

Another source later added that the federal government did receive a written request from Quebec in the form of a “two-line” email just minutes before the press conference.

“With regard to the military, I can confirm that when the premier put out his request, the federal government had indeed been informed of this request before the press conference was held,” Legault’s spokesperson said without denying any of the above details.

But the decision by Quebec that federal staff struggle to understand the most is the one to start reopening some schools and businesses early this month.

Quebec has seen more COVID-19 cases and deaths than any other province, but it also plans to reopen faster than anywhere else. As of Friday, there were 36,150 confirmed cases (more than half of the country’s total) and 2,725 deaths (of 4,471 throughout Canada) due to the virus.

There is a stark difference between rural Quebec, which has seen low to moderate levels of infections, and Montreal, which is the epicentre of the pandemic in Canada.

Thus, the city’s schools and businesses won’t be opening until later than the rest of the province (May 25 at the earliest).

Many in the Trudeau government feel the reopening is happening way too quickly.

“Does someone, somewhere (in the federal government) understand why Quebec, that has more than half of the COVID-19 deaths in the country, is the first to reopen? No.

But ever since Legault started talking about reopening, we’re hearing a lot less about the situation in CHSLD,” one source commented.

According to staff, one federal minister was shocked to hear a provincial counterpart explain in a recent conversation that the province was reopening so quickly because the “Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) is a rural government. Rural areas want to open, so we’re opening.”

The CAQ won 74 ridings in the last election, but only two were in Montreal, whereas the vast majority of their seats are in rural Quebec.

“We have said it several times: our decisions are made with the approval of Quebec Public Health. In fact, as you may have noticed (Friday), Quebec is the Canadian province with the highest unemployment rate,” Sauves commented in response to the allegations.

“This is proof that more has been done than many other provinces. We were the first in Canada to make difficult decisions related to containment, in addition to shutting down certain economic activities that others have not shut down,” he added. “We will revive the economy, gradually, if and only if the conditions are there, and always with the approval of Public Health.”

But not all is rosy in Quebec’s eyes, either. Two weeks ago, La Presse quoted provincial sources saying the province was furious about the Canada Emergency Student Benefit. Quebec sources told the news outlet that CESB would undercut the province’s ability to convince students to go work in the fields to help support the agricultural sector.

(CAQ) IS A RURAL GOVERNMENT. RURAL AREAS WANT TO OPEN, SO WE’RE OPENING.

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very selective bargain, will this be allowed to stand?  If there is an election and the Liberals retain power, will this be how they will ignore the elected Provincial officials?

Wet’suwet’en elected chiefs call for minister to resign, withdrawal of gov’t agreement

sean-boynton.jpg?quality=70&strip=all&w=68&h=68&crop=1
BY SEAN BOYNTON GLOBAL NEWS
Posted May 11, 2020 6:22 pm

The elected chiefs of the Wet’suwet’en Nation are calling for the resignation of Canada’s Indigenous-Crown relations minister and the withdrawal of a draft agreement on land rights and title, arguing the consultation process has been “flawed and incomplete.”

In a statement released Monday, the elected leadership said the memorandum of understanding reached between the hereditary chiefs and the federal and B.C. governments earlier this year has not been fully circulated to the Nation’s clans for their input, and was only seen by the elected chiefs this past Thursday.

That appears to contradict a joint statement issued by the hereditary chiefs and the governments at the end of April, which announced the draft arrangement had been agreed to by all clans and members of the Nation after weeks of consultation.

“Aboriginal rights and title are the collective rights of ALL Wet’suwet’en people; they are not held only by hereditary chiefs and they cannot be defined or compromised by the small hand-picked group the government is dealing with,” the statement signed by four elected chiefs reads.

“That is 19th century treaty making, not 21st century reconciliation.”

The elected chiefs say they held separate phone meetings with federal Crown-Indigenous Relations Minister Carolyn Bennett and her B.C. counterpart Scott Fraser last week, where they shared their concerns over the consultation process.

3:33Coastal GasLink crews back to work day after Wet’suwet’en deal

 Coastal GasLink crews back to work day after Wet’suwet’en deal

While the leadership says Fraser has offered “vague assurance of full involvement for the elected leadership” in writing, they say Bennett “did not have the decency to respond in any form.”

The chiefs say Bennett must resign as minister immediately “due to your disregard for our special relationship.”

Global News has reached out to Bennett’s office for comment, as well as to B.C.’s Indigenous relations ministry.

The elected chiefs say a six-hour meeting last Thursday with the Office of the Wet’suwet’en, which represents the hereditary chiefs, also soured, with the elected leadership arguing they were treated “improperly.”

 

They add that the office, which allegedly requested the meeting, “failed to adequately inform” the elected chiefs about what meetings have taken place regarding the government pact, and with whom.

The hereditary chiefs have explained that under Wet’suwet’en law, all clans and their members must agree to any deal or agreement that affects the Nation’s future.

 

Those chiefs have yet to respond to requests for comment on the elected chiefs’ allegations.

0:51Trudeau: We must remain committed to reconciliation with the Wet’suwet’en

 Trudeau: We must remain committed to reconciliation with the Wet’suwet’en

The hereditary chiefs have invited Bennett and Fraser to sign the memorandum on May 14, which will happen virtually due to travel restrictions imposed by the coronavirus pandemic.

The draft arrangement, once signed, is meant to set the terms of future negotiations on land rights and title for traditional Wet’suwet’en territory in northern B.C., where part of the controversial Coastal GasLink pipeline is being constructed.

The deal is not expected to impact that project, which the elected chiefs support, only applying to future broader land claims.

Details of the pact, which was reached late on Feb. 29 after three full days of talks, are due to be released once it is signed, according to the governments.

Twenty elected First Nation band councils along the Coastal GasLink pipeline route, including five bands within the Wet’suwet’en Nation, have signed agreements with the company. However, the hereditary chiefs point out those councils only have say over their reserves under the Indian Act.

The $6.6-billion project will carry natural gas from Dawson Creek to a planned LNG export facility in Kitimat.

 
2:31Draft deal with Wet’suwet’en chiefs doesn’t apply to Coastal GasLink pipeline

 Draft deal with Wet’suwet’en chiefs doesn’t apply to Coastal GasLink pipeline

All sides said in March that the new agreement and future negotiations would effectively resolve the open question left dangling at the end of the Delgamuukw decision handed down by the Supreme Court of Canada in 1997.

The decision saw the court acknowledge the existence of Aboriginal title as an exclusive and ancestral right to the land, which remains unextinguished.

But the ruling did not decide on what what lands actually belong to the Wet’suwet’en, and called for further negotiations — a process that didn’t happen until earlier this year.

The hereditary chiefs have still pointed to the Delgamuukw decision as proof that the province had violated Indigenous law by approving the pipeline.

The protests were sparked by the RCMP moving into Wet’suwet’en territory and arresting 28 people in February while enforcing a court injunction won by Coastal GasLink. The company sought the injunction in order to clear dozens of pipeline opponents from blocking access to a key project worksite on the disputed Wet’suwet’en land.

Construction at that worksite, which was halted for four days to allow the discussion between the chiefs and government ministers to go ahead, resumed shortly after the agreement was reached.

— With files from Sarah MacDonald

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More  vote buying.

Feds sending seniors one-time $300 payment as part of new COVID-19 aid

Rachel AielloOttawa News Bureau Online Producer

@rachaiello  Contact

Published Tuesday, May 12, 2020 10:03AM EDTLast Updated Tuesday, May 12, 2020 10:22AM EDT
 

OTTAWA -- The federal government is unveiling more support for seniors, including spending $2.5 billion on a one-time tax-free payment of $300 to eligible seniors.

Any senior who is eligible for the Old Age Security (OAS) pension will receive the payment, and an additional $200 is being sent to seniors eligible for the Guaranteed Income Supplement (GIS).

Seniors Minister Deb Schulte and Treasury Board President Jean-Yves Duclos are announcing the new measures ahead of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s address from Rideau Cottage.

 

Seniors are a demographic that continues to be hardest hit from a health standpoint by COVID-19 and is also facing additional economic challenges. In addition to these one-time cheques, the government is increasing funding to community supports and temporarily extending the GIS payments to seniors if their 2019 income information has not yet been assessed, allowing those people to continue to receive their benefits. 

 

Schulte said the pandemic has made life more expensive and more difficult for the oldest Canadians, as many are facing higher costs for services, higher medication dispensing fees, are paying premiums for deliveries – all while their life savings have “taken a beating.”

Trudeau is then also expected to speak to the long-awaited and continually-promised additional support for “the seniors who built us this extraordinary country,” as the prime minister has put it.

Many seniors live on a fixed income, and are facing other stresses at this time, including uncertainty around their retirement savings.

The government took initial steps to assist seniors with funds for seniors-focused community programs like grocery delivery, and by reducing required minimum withdrawals from Registered Retirement Income Funds (RRIFs) by 25 per cent for 2020.

The government also spent $1.3 billion in a one-time special payment through the Goods and Services Tax (GST) credit in April. More than four million seniors received this top-up, giving an average of $375 for single seniors and $510 for senior couples.

These new measures come as older Canadians continued to express concerns about their ability to make ends meet during this time. 

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Will PM stay the same or pivot post-pandemic?

 

  • Calgary Sun
  • 17 May 2020
  • ANTHONY FUREY afurey@postmedia.com @anthonyfurey
img?regionKey=%2bQFDztYmty0QY375VWgSXg%3d%3dCANADIANPRESSFILES JUSTIN TRUDEAU

Everyone knows that we’re not going to be returning to the same normal as before. While society is already slowly reopening, how we function in that society is going to be very different.

There’s hardly any aspect of our lives that won’t face some degree of change, from how we enter elevators to the way we vacation. And there’s no reason to think politics will be any different.

You’ve got to wonder how the Liberal government is thinking this new era through right now. Are they confident they can stay the course with the key themes of their agenda? Or are they planning to pivot and turn themselves into a whole new government?

The Liberals are probably feeling pretty comfortable right now. Because by all accounts, Trudeau remains popular with the voters. In fact, an Angus Reid Institute opinion poll found Trudeau and the Liberals are faring better now with Canadians than they were during the time of last year’s election.

What’s behind that current support though? One factor is likely that regular Canadians feel compelled to rally behind their government now that we’re in something resembling war-time mode. That uptick isn’t PM-specific. It would go to whomever is in office and could disappear just as quickly.

Another reason is surely that the main activity that the Liberals have been involved in for the past couple of months is throwing money at anyone who raises their hand to take it. It’s hard to lose friends doing that.

Will this support last after the pandemic? That’s hard to say. It depends on how bad of a shape we’re in once we get out of this. Economists largely agree that there will not be a V-shaped recovery, where once the lockdowns are over we suddenly bounce back to life as it was before.

Jobs have been permanently lost. Businesses closed for good. Our overall health seems to have taken a hit along with the value of our pensions, savings and real estate. And many of the things we love to do will be different and not as fun. Life will not be rosier.

So here’s a question for you: Let’s say you’re sitting there in a funk because of just how much your life has changed and not for the better and then you turn on the television and there is Justin Trudeau appearing at the United Nations or some other global gabfest, giving one of his canned speeches about how we have to do even more to combat climate change or how it’s intolerant of us to not bring in an ever greater number of refugees.

After the pandemic is over, are you going to be more or less open to such a speech than you were before? It’s hard to think of anyone outside of hardened partisans and ideologues whose appetite for this will have increased post-pandemic.

The Liberal agenda is one best suited for good times, when we have few real cares keeping us up at night. Trudeau’s preoccupations are largely frills, things one can only focus on once the basics are looked after.

Things are different now. Canadians have been worrying about whether they or a loved one will suddenly be hooked up to a ventilator. They wonder if they’ll lose their jobs or take a steep salary cut. When they go to the grocery store, they cross their fingers that the products they want will be on the shelves.

There has been a lot of reflection these past few months, where people have been reassessing their relationship to family, work, community and, yes, government. It’s too soon to tell exactly what this will mean for Canadian politics, but it likely won’t be good news for liberal elites, whose assumptions about the world are now stuck in the past.

It’ll be interesting to see if Trudeau and the Liberals stay the course and just try to dress up their old ideas as new, or if they pivot and adopt to the coming new era.

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58 minutes ago, Marshall said:

Will PM stay the same or pivot post-pandemic?

He will pivot in the direction which gets him the most votes. His response will have ZERO to do with what’s best for Canadians or Canada. 

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The leader of the NDP party seems to think he is still in a position of strength re the future of the minority Liberal government.  I think he is living a dream life.  I also think Justin will ignore him because if the NDP were to bring down the minority government, the Liberals are guaranteed to win a forced election because of the many $$$$$ given out during the last couple of months.  
The other funny is the leader of the BLOC demanding that Quebec be given the money owed to them. (they already have been more than their fair share)

Singh demands more transparency from Trudeau government as COVID-19 unfolds

BY STAFF THE CANADIAN PRESS
Posted May 20, 2020 10:32 am
Singh_HoC.jpg?w=1040&quality=70&strip=all
 
 

OTTAWA — As the Liberal government expands the financial supports designed to blunt the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh says his party wants more transparency on where those dollars are going.

Singh said Wednesday that’s what is driving his party’s point of view in talks underway now to determine in what form Parliament may or may not return next week.

“We want to make sure that money that is being put out by the government goes directly to workers, that it is tied to jobs, that it is tied to employment,” he said.

“To do that we need to get back to a more normal operation of Parliament.”

 

A special COVID-19 committee is due to meet in person later Wednesday; its tri-weekly meetings are now the stand-in for Parliament, which has been largely adjourned since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in Canada in March.

 

But the pause on normal parliamentary proceedings is set to expire on Monday, unless the four parties in the House of Commons can come to some kind of agreement on how to extend it.

Singh said his party is still fine-tuning its proposal for the talks, but the New Democrats are eyeing a hybrid model similar to what is now being used in the U.K. It allows for MPs to attend either virtually or in person, allowing for participation from those across the country.

“The principle that we would want to operate on is that MPs are not limited from their access to representing their constituents so that they are able to be in some way representing their people, the people that elected them,” he said.

ONLINE_STILL_TRUDEAU_MASK.jpg?w=1040&quality=70&strip=all0:30Coronavirus outbreak: Trudeau enters House of Commons wearing face mask

 Coronavirus outbreak: Trudeau enters House of Commons wearing face mask

The Conservatives also support the hybrid approach, which Singh said has been presented as an option to the Speaker of the House of Commons.

Bloc Quebecois Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet said he thinks a deal can be reached, but he has given the Liberals a list of demands before his party will agree to any modifications to the plan for Parliament.

He said Wednesday his party is looking for improvements to a number of existing support programs, among them those that help with businesses’ fixed costs, as well as the commercial rent subsidy. He also wants the Canada Emergency Response Benefit and student aid programs amended so recipients can also take jobs.

“We don’t want the government to say, ‘Oh yes, we’re going to do it,'” Blanchet said.

“We want the government to say, ‘This is what we’re going to do, this is when, this how, and this is how much it is going to cost.’ And in that case we’ll say OK, now you’re being true to your word.”

1:40Coronavirus outbreak: Bloc Québécois leader calls on federal government to ‘give Quebecers the money owed to them’

 Coronavirus outbreak: Bloc Québécois leader calls on federal government to ‘give Quebecers the money owed to them’

Both the Commons and Senate have met several times to pass emergency aid legislation, doing so in single-day sittings with close to the minimum number of members required under the procedural rules of Parliament.

There are a handful of House of Commons committees still meeting as well, entirely virtually.

The current special committee meets twice a week virtually, and once in person.

Trudeau has suggested he prefers a continuation of that approach, leaving the door open to additional weekly virtual sittings.

A review of the minutes from the first six meetings reveals that Scheer has attended three, while Trudeau, Singh and Blanchet have all attended four.

Blanchet said if MPs are going to continue in-person sittings, there needs to be enforcement of the number of MPs present to keep everyone safe.

He said Wednesday his party isn’t committed to any particular approach for a return. There are about four more weeks of Parliament before the scheduled summer break, he said.

“So maybe the easier solution would be the best,” he said

“I feel the easiest solution is making a strong and trustworthy agreement to go on as we do now but if we do not, it’s pretty easy also to be here five days a week but in a very limited number of MPs.”

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51 minutes ago, Marshall said:

I also think Justin will ignore him because if the NDP were to bring down the minority government, the Liberals are guaranteed to win a forced election because of the many $$$$$ given out during the last couple of months.  

I fear you are right. That's why election reform is a must now.

We have a situation where the Toronto area elected a minority government and it's propped up by progressives and a separatist party (dedicated to the destruction of the country). The only other option is to provincially invoke sanctuary partitions to limit the damage by ignoring federal law and regulation. 

The most dangerous voter is the one who votes for the party that promises to put the most money in their pockets... it's unsustainable and highly polarizing.

Edited by Wolfhunter
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13 minutes ago, Wolfhunter said:

I fear you are right. That's why election reform is a must now.

We have a situation where the Toronto area elected a minority government and it's propped up by progressives and a separatist party (dedicated to the destruction of the country). The only other option is to provincially invoke sanctuary partitions to limit the damage by ignoring federal law and regulation. 

The most dangerous voter is the one who votes for the party that promises to put the most money in their pockets... it's unsustainable and highly polarizing.

I agree but feedback from some neighbors (millennials) indicate they are now happy with Justin and will / would vote for him (at least at present). They think he has done a bang up job during the pandemic (based I think about his almost daily TV appearances) I guess only time will tell.  I see today he appeared wearing a mask (bandit style) ?

image.png

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10 minutes ago, Marshall said:

feedback from some neighbors (millennials) indicate they are now happy with Justin and will / would vote for him (at least at present).

Yup, right again I think....

He would be foolish not to have an election this year and the sooner the better. The Conservatives are a rudderless ship and what better outcome than having the NDP bring down the government so he could blame them. A slim Liberal majority is all but guaranteed if done in a timely manner.

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1 hour ago, mo32a said:

But voting during a pandemic - don't think that would fly.

A better way of putting it might be as soon as practicable. 

It would be best done before the extent and ramifications of the debt/deficit gains traction and the mood changes. The fraud and abuses within the CERB payouts will be another source of heartache if it's left too long as well. That's not a statement on how well or how badly it was all handled.... it's a simple reality that needs to be dealt with and sooner is better than later. 

I would outline the plan for dealing with the post Covid fallout and insert ("Canada needs a strong Liberal majority government to deal with this situation in compassionate manner" ) in to all talking points at every opportunity.

Right now I would be drafting legislation that I knew would bring down the government and then sit on it. When the time is right provoke an election and blame the other parties for triggering it when we could least afford the expense.... then use that in furthering the value of a majority Liberal government and the stability it would afford the country as we work through these difficult times together. 

JT can manipulate that without batting an eye.

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  • 2 weeks later...

If I were JT, there would be a snap election this fall, I would want it to render my accountability in the fall sitting of parliament moot and trade on the good will that only massive spending can illicit in a Liberal base.

The entire cost of the adventure to date and the notion of paying for it have not yet risen above a whisper in the wind and the new Conservative leader will not have his sea legs by the fall.

Expecting opportunists not to seize opportunity is like feeding the squirrels in your attic as a bribe against squirrel mischief. You need to think like a squirrel... JT certainly does.   

Edited by Wolfhunter
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9 hours ago, Wolfhunter said:

If I were JT, there would be a snap election this fall, I would want it to render my accountability in the fall sitting of parliament moot and trade on the good will that only massive spending can illicit in a Liberal base.

The entire cost of the adventure to date and the notion of paying for it have not yet risen above a whisper in the wind and the new Conservative leader will not have his sea legs by the fall.

Expecting opportunists not to seize opportunity is like feeding the squirrels in your attic as a bribe against squirrel mischief. You need to think like a squirrel... JT certainly does.   

I agree that the liberals are illicit.

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3 minutes ago, mo32a said:

I agree that the liberals are illicit.

Indeed, maybe auto correct is an NDP invention.

It seems that only liberals can elicit that sort of illicit behaviour from a computer.... it causes them to automatically cast all liberals in the unlawful and illegitimate light they seem to crave.  

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  • 3 weeks later...

“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” - 

 

                                                                       “ The Deeper problem is that our society has moved from Apathy to dependency “ 
 

 

It’s likely that Trudeau’s Liberals are planning a fall election. If you’re a conservative in Canada, you are likely dismayed and disheartened by recent polls that show Justin Trudeau’s Liberals winning a massive landslide majority if an election were held today. Leger has the Liberals at 44% with the Conservatives down at 25%. Abacus Data has the Liberals up at 39% with the Conservatives down at 31%.

The trend is clear. Since March, the Liberals have dominated the polls across the board. If anything, they seem to be getting stronger and stronger.

There are a few current reasons for this. Covid-19 explains most of it. Some of the so-called, “Rally Around the Flag” effect is in play, so people simply support the party in power during times of crisis.  Even though to conservative eyes it looks like the Liberals have been wildly incompetent in their handling of the issue, the general population seems to think the Liberals have done a terrific job! People in Ontario always have their noses pressed against the storefront glass of America as well, and upon consuming Trump Derangement Syndrome-infected US media they are inclined to view our own government’s response favourably. “Better than Trump!” seems to be an Ontario motto.

The Conservatives also don’t currently have a leader in place either. This always degrades low-info voter’s impressions of political parties since personality politics looms large over mainstream opinion. If MacKay or O’Toole were in place properly right now, they could begin to establish themselves and the party in the hearts and minds of people who don’t care about politics. Scheer is just yesterday’s man throwing stones. Nobody who didn’t vote for him cares.

Another big event makes a fall election likely.

The US presidential election. Trump is potentially set to win a second term in November. How much would Trudeau like to compare and contrast himself with Trump? This strategy would be very successful in Ontario since people in that province are obsessed with US politics and are consumed with how we can differentiate ourselves from them. If Trudeau called an election that ran from September through to mid-October, he could use the fear and hate of Trump to his advantage.

Lastly, the NDP is broke. They were already in bad shape in 2019 and had trouble launching a national campaign. Immediately following an election, fundraising tends to decline for all parties…people are just burned out on politics and donations dry up for awhile. All of this combined with Covid-19 is pushing the NDP to the breaking point. Since Trudeau’s brand of Liberalism is basically just NDP plus corporatism…why not go for the knock-out blow? Trudeau would have a good chance at taking 20 or 30 NDP seats. He could finally do what his father intended and absorb the NDP into the Liberal Party, making it permanently more left-wing in the process.

 

“The average age of the world’s greatest civilizations from the beginning of history has been about 200 years. During those 200 years, these nations always progressed through the following sequence: From bondage to spiritual faith; From spiritual faith to great courage; From courage to liberty; From liberty to abundance; From abundance to selfishness; From selfishness to complacency; From complacency to apathy; From apathy to dependence; From dependence back into bondage.” - Alexander Fraser Tytler

 

People pass this quote around whenever their preferred political candidate doesn’t win an election. Most people use this quote to try to activate people into action. They either implicitly or explicitly suggest that we are at the stage of apathy and that we can correct course by getting involved and start voting!

 

The deeper problem is that our society has moved from apathy to dependency. All this free money being sloshed around has functioned as a moral hazard. Is there any doubt that the progressive appetite for a Universal Basic Income hasn’t been whetted by the CERB payments? Replacing CERB with some kind of UBI is the biggest part of the agenda, but aside from that we’ve also had payments to seniors, increased payment under the Canadian Child Benefit, subsidies for wages for businesses, targeted payments for groups like urban natives, and enormous amounts of liquidity pushed into the system helping to prop up everything. This is the nanny state on steroids.

 

 

We’re assured that this is all just temporary, but as Milton Friedman said, “There’s nothing more permanent than a temporary government program.”

When our economy fails to roar back to life or these “temporary” relief programs begin ending, watch the public demand more support. Justin Trudeau will be only too happy to provide it. This is the main reason we will likely be looking at an election this fall. The opportunity is too good to pass up.

The Liberal campaign will be based around giving people what they want. Literally purchasing people’s vote will be the platform for Justin’s re-election. He can afford to do this since Canada’s debt-to-GDP ratio will be 48.4% in 2020-2021. This is much higher than where we’ve been recently, but still roughly where the country was back in 2000. This time, however, interest rates are way lower so the ease of piling on more debt is lighter.

It’s going to be a long and rough recovery and tough choices will have to be made or foisted upon us down the road. The best time to ensure longevity of power is to campaign before the grind sets in. Before people begin scapegoating the current government for everything. Before the big payments become unwieldy and unrealistic. Better to run a positive campaign this fall and grab a four-year majority than wait for the sunny days to wear off and be at the mercy of the opposition deciding to hold an election at the worst possible moment.

Don’t be surprised if we see Trudeau criss-crossing the country this summer in a pre-campaign celebration of Canadian values, government cash and control. The people will love it and they’ll love him. Come October, watch for a landslide Liberal majority fuelled with borrowed money and progressive platitudes. People in Ontario will shout, “We’re not Trump!” and cash their government money in order to buy their government cheese. It’s a long time until the hangover arrives, so don’t worry…be happy. Vote Liberal!

http://www.poletical.com/liberals-2020-fall-election.php

 

 


 

 

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A PICTURE WITH NO FOCUS.

Those looking ahead to recovery find little offered by Morneau

  • Calgary Herald
  • 9 Jul 2020
  • JOHN IVISON Comment National Post jivison@postmedia.com Twitter.com/ivisonj
img?regionKey=xcyH5pwBXee4qXXjK5pY%2bg%3d%3d  

It was heartening to see a finance minister provide clarity, imagination and hope amid the COVID chaos.

He ruled out further extensions to wage subsidies beyond October but made it cheaper for people to buy homes, reduced consumption taxes for food and accommodation, offered restaurant discounts for people who “eat out to help out,” and created a new green home renovation credit.

Unfortunately it wasn’t Canada’s finance minister. All these measures designed to instill confidence and to get people out of their homes were included in the summer statement by U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rishi Sunak.

Simultaneously, Canadian Finance Minister Bill Morneau was releasing his “fiscal snapshot,” a self-congratulatory effort that slapped his government on the back for its COVID-19 performance and offered no new details, beyond an eye-popping deficit forecast of $343.2 billion — a full $87 billion higher than the best guess by the Parliamentary Budget Officer.

“We were guided by three key principles: speed, scale and simplicity. I think we delivered on all three,” Morneau said, modestly.

The likely cause of a deficit hike that has gone from mildly hallucinatory to mind-altering is the amount allocated to the Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy.

The new update sets aside $82.3 billion for CEWS, even though the take-up so far has been disappointing — 245,000 applicants, covering two million workers, at a cost of $17 billion (compared to eight million applicants at a cost of $53 billion for the Canada Emergency Response Benefit.)

Deep in the fiscal update documents, the government revealed that it “will soon announce changes to the CEWS to stimulate recovery, provide support to businesses during reopening and help them adapt to the new normal.”

Morneau refused to provide details on what is in store but it is clearly designed to encourage more businesses to sign up for CEWS by removing disincentives to growth, such as the provision that requires businesses to experience a 30 per cent drop in revenue before they are eligible.

Quite why this key restart tool was not included in this document is mystifying.

There was precious little else here to justify Morneau’s sense of “cautious optimism.”

Private sector economists estimate Canada’s GDP will decline 6.8 per cent this year and bounce back with growth of 5.5 per cent in 2021.

The Department of Finance has a more gloomy view, suggesting it had modelled two scenarios. One envisages a resurgence of uncontrolled transmission later this year, resulting in an 11.2 per cent decline in real GDP in 2020.

The other sees a slower pace to recovery than the private sector economists imagine, as households remain cautious and avoid public spaces, including restaurants and non-essential shopping.

In turn, businesses face low demand, operate under capacity and fire workers. Under this scenario, GDP slips by 9.6 per cent this year.

Yet this is the sequence of events the U.K. Chancellor is taking active measures to avoid.

Obviously, economic health will depend on public health. Testing and contact tracing, not to mention adequate child-care, are going to be key.

But there is a role here for the federal government to take smart, targeted measures to bolster demand and actively help the pivot from fear to hope. Ottawa is still trying to force the provinces and territories to accept its conditions as part of a $14-billion safe restart agreement but those are mainly public health measures, such as more money to increase testing capacity.

There is very little in the update to address FOGO (fear of going out) or to kindle economic activity.

Instead, Morneau rambled through the well-documented actions of the past four months. It is fair to give credit where it is due and say the measures taken prevented things from being worse than they might have been. The update cited an Angus Reid public opinion poll that suggested 30 per cent of respondents were concerned about paying for their rent or mortgage in March, but by May only six per cent said they were unable to foot their monthly bills.

Some programs were a success. The CERB replaced $53 billion in lost income, the Canada Emergency Student Benefit is helping 600,000 students and the Canada Emergency Business Account has provided 680,000 small businesses with interest-free, partly forgivable loans.

Others have had less take up — the Canada Emergency Commercial Rent Assistance has had a mere 29,000 requests; the Business Credit Availability loan guarantee program has offered just 148 guarantees. The Large Employer Emergency Financing Facility (LEEFF) doesn’t appear to have had any takers at all.

Still, the government is able to boast of having offered $236 billion in direct support, which, at around 10 per cent of GDP, is considerably higher than the G7 average of 6.7 per cent.

The economy was already in a hole, even before the government’s COVID measures. The update reveals that $81.3 billion has been added to the deficit by the slowdown in budgetary revenues — $30 billion from the drop in income tax receipts alone.

Still — the shortfall of $343.2 billion might even make the NDP blanch. I remember seeing $1 billion in fake $50 bills stacked up on about 10 pallets as part of a protest against government waste. It needed a good sized truck to move it.

The COVID recovery plan takes the national debt over $1 trillion and it is going to be a dead weight dragging on the aspirations of future generations.

The only redeeming feature is the low cost of borrowing, which, perversely, means the carrying cost of the massive amounts of new debt is $4 billion less than was estimated in last December’s fiscal update, at just one per cent of GDP.

Morneau ruled out the prospect of this generation paying off the COVID bill through increased taxes. “Raising taxes is exactly the wrong response. We have to focus on growth,” he said.

Yet that is precisely what he has failed to do in this fiscal update. It is a snapshot that has no focus.

THERE IS LITTLE IN THE UPDATE TO ADDRESS FOGO (FEAR OF GOING OUT) OR TO KINDLE ECONOMIC ACTIVITY.

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