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Current Airline Capacity Cuts COVID19


Johnboy

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Munoz told UAL employees yesterday that the operation would be shrunk to match demand.

Today, UAL Flt Ops identified 4525 pilots as surplus (out of approximately 13000).

That should be a taste of where things are headed for many large global carriers.

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It will be interesting to see how flights come back. You have to think that there will be cluster countries (low rates/deaths) that would open up their doors to each other vs. automatically opening otherwise wide open and highly travelled borders (i.e. Canada/USA). You have to think the AC/AT deal will fall apart because of this and AT may very well become the first Canadian casualty. AC and WJ will both shrink significantly over the next 5 years. 

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The official announcement. Displacement bid released 4200 pilots. 15-16 yrs seniority to hold anything other than 737 or 320 F/O.

UAL::: 


As our industry and our airline continues to feel the terrible impact of the COVID-19 virus, passengers are not flying, and they are not buying new tickets. On average we are only carrying about 10,000 passengers per day. About 21% of our mainline flights have fewer than 10 revenue customers on board. We currently have more pilots than passengers on any given day. 

You have all heard Oscar and Scott state that when travel returns, it likely will not bounce back quickly. Because of this, we will need to be a smaller airline than we are today for some time. You have rightly asked what that means, in terms of pilot displacements and furloughs. With displacement bid 20-07D, which will open shortly, we are taking the first step in adjusting our pilot staffing and this message is an effort to more directly address your questions. 

Even though the volume of this displacement is enormous, and its impact on the lives of many of our pilots significant, none of us should believe it solves all of our problems. This displacement bid aligns pilot staffing to a schedule reduction of around 30%, yet our schedule in May, and our expected schedule for June, is reduced by 90%. No one knows when travel demand will return, so unfortunately, the results of this displacement are likely to be a baseline from which future displacements are conducted. 

With a displacement of this size, it is natural for you to ask about a plan to furlough pilots. That is the right question to ask because, while the CARES Act Payroll Support Program assistance covers a portion of our payroll costs and protects jobs through September 30, there is no question that we believe we will need to make more difficult decisions after October 1 which may include pilot furloughs. I am not prepared to announce any specific furlough numbers today, but there should be enough information conveyed in this displacement for you to make informed conclusions. During the time that this displacement bid is open we will be gathering as much information about future scenarios as we can, and I will share additional details with you when I am able. It’s also important to note that we have been aggressively and proactively cutting costs across our entire business since late January – eliminating discretionary spending, putting a freeze on hiring, cutting officer pay by 50% and Scott and Oscar’s base salary by 100%, suspending our operational bonus program and reducing hours of some of our frontline workers. 

When I step away for a minute from the frenzy of meetings and calls that occupy my life right now, and find a short period of solitude, it's overwhelming for me to comprehend the degree of change that our United family is going through right now. I wish I could talk to each of you individually, to hear how you, your family and other loved ones, are coping in these times. Rest assured that my team and I are working hard to do our part to navigate our company to safe shores. Thank you for all that you are doing for our customers and your fellow co-workers. 

Bryan 

Displacement Bid 20-07D 
Effective Date: June 30, 2020 
Bid closes at 1200 CT on Friday, May 22 

787 
Outlook: This fleet will be the workhorse of our international operation for the foreseeable future. Unfortunately, the aircraft will not be flying out of LAX for some time, possibly over a year. 
Category Closures: 
LAX 787 CA (80 active pilots) 
LAX 787 FO (179 active pilots) 
Partial Displacements: 
DCA 787 FO: seniority 8001 and junior (33 active pilots) 
DEN 787 FO: seniority 6801 and junior (23 active pilots) 
EWR 787 FO: seniority 8001 and junior (35 active pilots) 
IAH 787 FO: seniority 6801 and junior (9 active pilots) 
ORD 787 FO: seniority 6801 and junior (33 active pilots) 
SFO 787 CA: seniority 2301 and junior (29 active pilots) 
SFO 787 FO: seniority 6801 and junior (163 active pilots) 

777 
Outlook: 777 flying will be suppressed for the foreseeable future, and will be consolidated at EWR and SFO. 777 domiciles at DCA and IAH are expected to return at some time in the future. 
Category Closures: 
DCA 777 CA (101 active pilots) 
DCA 777 FO (175 active pilots) 
IAH 777 CA (94 active pilots) 
IAH 777 FO (169 active pilots) 
ORD 777 CA (50 active pilots) 
ORD 777 FO (84 active pilots) 
Partial Displacements: 
EWR 777 CA: seniority 3001 and junior (23 active pilots) 
EWR 777 FO: seniority 7301 and junior (164 active pilots) 
SFO 777 CA: seniority 3001 and junior (30 active pilots) 
SFO 777 FO: seniority 7301 and junior (286 active pilots) 

756 
Outlook: The 767-300 is the only sub-fleet that is forecasted to fly over the foreseeable future. Pilot staffing will be consolidated at EWR, IAH and ORD. 
Category Closures: 
DCA 756 CA (101 active pilots) 
DCA 756 FO (159 active pilots) 
DEN 756 CA (46 active pilots) 
DEN 756 FO (44 active pilots) 
LAX 756 CA (85 active pilots) 
LAX 756 FO (81 active pilots) 
SFO 756 CA (105 active pilots) 
SFO 756 FO (94 active pilots) 
Partial Displacements: 
EWR 756 CA: seniority 2501 and junior (193 active pilots) 
EWR 756 FO: seniority 6801 and junior (423 active pilots) 
IAH 756 CA: seniority 2501 and junior (38 active pilots) 
IAH 756 FO: seniority 6801 and junior (86 active pilots) 
ORD 756 CA: seniority 2301 and junior (64 active pilots) 
ORD 756 FO: seniority 6801 and junior (147 active pilots) 

737 and Airbus 
Outlook: These aircraft will continue their previous mission. 
Partial Displacements: 
DCA 320 CA: seniority 6801 and junior (39 active pilots) 
DEN 320 CA: seniority 6801 and junior (19 active pilots) 
EWR 320 CA: seniority 6801 and junior (127 active pilots) 
IAH 320 CA: seniority 6801 and junior (17 active pilots) 
LAX 320 CA: seniority 6801 and junior (24 active pilots) 
ORD 320 CA: seniority 6801 and junior (49 active pilots) 
SFO 320 CA: seniority 6801 and junior (145 active pilots) 

CLE 737 CA: seniority 6801 and junior (6 active pilots) 
DCA 737 CA: seniority 6801 and junior (67 active pilots) 
DEN 737 CA: seniority 6801 and junior (63 active pilots) 
EWR 737 CA: seniority 6801 and junior (140 active pilots) 
GUM 737 CA: seniority 6501 and junior (11 active pilots) 
IAH 737 CA: seniority 6801 and junior (102 active pilots) 
LAX 737 CA: seniority 6801 and junior (73 active pilots) 
ORD 737 CA: seniority 6801 and junior (52 active pilots) 
SFO 737 CA: seniority 6801 and junior (98 active pilots)

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Norwegian shareholders approve survival plan

By Cirium4 May 2020

Norwegian’s shareholders have voted in favour of its plan to convert debt to equity and relaunch operations with a smaller fleet and fewer destinations from 2021.

The airline should now be able to access the rest of its NKr3 billion ($288 million) bailout package from Norway’s government, which is conditional upon cutting its debt-to-equity ratio. Without state support, the airline has warned it will run out of cash by mid-May.

In a 4 May disclosure to the Oslo stock exchange, Norwegian says that 95% of shareholders voted in favour of all proposed resolutions.

“Based on the results from the extraordinary general meeting, the company will proceed with the private placements through conversion of bonds and lease debt to shares, as well as the public offering of up to NKr400 million,” states the airline.

Earlier on 4 May Norwegian announced increased support from lessors for a minimum conversion to equity of $730 million – higher than the $550 million it announced on 1 May. It said the conversion was supported by a significant number of lessors and discussions continue with others over possible further conversion of debt to equity.

Talks with bondholders had continued over the weekend of 2-3 May after the airline failed to secure the required majority support for its proposal following a 30 April vote. On 3 May, Norwegian announced that a fresh proposal had received “robust support” from bondholders across all four bond issues, with combined support of 76% of the votes.

Under the airline’s restructuring plan it will remain in a “hibernation phase” – in which 95% of its fleet is grounded and just seven aircraft are operating state-subsidised domestic operations only – until the second quarter of 2021, when a gradual ramp-up will begin.

It does not anticipate “normal operations” resuming until 2022, and the airline that emerges then will operate fewer aircraft and a “rightsized” network focused on the most profitable routes. https://www.flightglobal.com/strategy/norwegian-shareholders-approve-survival-plan/138206.article

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Frontier wins DOT approval to suspend flights to several cities

By Cirium29 April 2020

The US Department of Transportation (DOT) is exempting Frontier Airlines from operating routes to Charlotte, Detroit, Boston and Providence through 10 June, as a condition of its federal payroll support.

The DOT notice on 25 April states that those destinations “have abundant service from other carriers”, and that allowing Frontier to suspend those routes relieves it “from an undue economic and operational burden”. The department also will not require Frontier to operate flights to Portsmouth, New Hampshire, because the carrier removed that city from its network in July 2019.

The department rejected the rest of the ultra-low-cost carrier’s request to suspend service to 33 destinations on its network, amounting to a third of the 96 destinations on its continental US network, Cirium schedules data shows. The routes included Sioux Falls, Cedar Rapids, El Paso, Grand Rapids and Syracuse.

The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act gives the US Treasury and Transportation departments discretion to set conditions for relief funding to airlines, which include requirements for them to continue operating their routes “to the extent reasonable and practicable”. Airlines that receive stimulus funds are invited to request the DOT to exempt certain routes from their network. Treasury states that it will give Frontier funding to continue paying salaries and benefits to its workers, but the privately owned airline has not provided details.

While the DOT seeks “to retain at least minimal connections to the national air transportation system” to allow air travel and cargo shipments as needed, cash-strapped airlines are criticising this policy as out of step with the virtually zero-revenue environment. US domestic flights as of 28 April are carrying only 15 to 20 passengers on average, according to trade group Airlines for America (A4A).

Treasury and DOT have adjusted their terms for CARES Act funds in response to concerns expressed by trade associations and labour groups. Carriers that provided less than 10% of domestic capacity in 2019 and served a point five or more times per week only need to provide three weekly flights, the DOT says. Those that served a destination less than five times per week only need to provide one weekly flight.

 

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Air Canada to retire 79 aircraft

Air-Canada-Boeing-767-300ER-678x381.jpg A Boeing 767 of Air Canada. Photo: © Phillip Rohmberger / IFN

Air Canada and Air Canada Rouge have announced plans to accelerate the retirement of 79 older aircraft – almost a third of the combined fleet – amid the ongoing Coronavirus crisis. This was mentioned during the airline’s first quarter financial results on Monday.

According to this plan, the remaining Embraer E190 regional jets of Air Canada will be retired immediately. The retirement of this aircraft type was initially scheduled to be completed in early or mid 2020, but has apparently encountered delays.

Furthermore, the phase-out of more than 60 Airbus A319 and Boeing 767 aircraft from both Air Canada and Air Canada Rouge will be accelerated. The airline has not yet specified when the planes are set to leave.

Air Canada currently has 13 Airbus A319 and five remaining Boeing 767-300ER in its fleet, according to Planespotters.net, although the ongoing crisis has caused most of these aircraft to be temporarily inactive right now. Its low-cost subsidiary Air Canada Rouge, which is mostly offering flights to leisure destinations, operates 22 Airbus A319 and 25 Boeing 767-300ER, all of which are currently grounded.

The Boeing 767 is the only long-haul aircraft in the fleet of Air Canada Rouge. Unless the company decides to replace it through a different aircraft type, this retirement would mean the end of the airline’s long-haul flying.

Air Canada has reduced its total capacity for the second quarter of 2020 by 85 to 90 percent, in response to Coronavirus, resulting travel restrictions and severely dropped demand. The airline says it expects the recovery from this crisis to take ‘at least’ three years.

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Those aircraft were already slated to depart the airline.  the process was accelerated because it is a good time to do it.

 

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Emirates Considers Cutting 30,000 Jobs, Retire A380s Faster

Emirates Group is considering slashing about 30,000 jobs, the deepest cuts yet in a global airline industry that’s been forced into near-hibernation by the coronavirus pandemic.

The world’s biggest long-haul carrier could shrink a payroll that stood at 105,000 in March by as much as 30% as it reduces costs and realigns its operation to cope with a travel downturn expected to last for years, according to people familiar with the matter. The state-owned group raised $1.2 billion in new financing in the first quarter and is seeking aid from Dubai.

Emirates is also considering accelerating the retirement of its fleet of A380s, the massive double-decker jets that can seat more than 500 passengers, some of the people said, asking not to be identified because the information hasn’t been made public.

Emirates, the biggest operator of the Airbus SE super-jumbo aircraft, said it is reviewing “costs and resourcing” levels against projections as it prepares to resume service after an almost two-month grounding.

“No announcement has been made regarding mass redundancies at the airline,” it said in an emailed statement. “Conserving cash, safeguarding our business, and preserving as much of our skilled workforce as possible remain our top priorities.”

'He also called the pandemic a black swan event for the industry, referring to a rare occurrence with extreme impact'

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NAV CANADA reports April traffic figures

From NAV CANADA

nav-canada-logo-e1587425795708.jpg?w=204

OTTAWA, May 19, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — NAV CANADA announced today its traffic figures for the month of April 2020 as measured in weighted charging units for enroute, terminal and oceanic air navigation services, in comparison to the last fiscal year.

Traffic in April 2020 decreased by an average of 74.7 per cent compared to the same month in 2019. NAV CANADA’s fiscal year runs from September 1 to August 31.

Weighted charging units represent a traffic measure that reflects the number of flights, aircraft size and distance flown in Canadian airspace.

2020%20WCU-Apr-Eng.jpg
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22 hours ago, Marshall said:

NAV CANADA reports April traffic figures

From NAV CANADA

nav-canada-logo-e1587425795708.jpg?w=204

OTTAWA, May 19, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — NAV CANADA announced today its traffic figures for the month of April 2020 as measured in weighted charging units for enroute, terminal and oceanic air navigation services, in comparison to the last fiscal year.

Traffic in April 2020 decreased by an average of 74.7 per cent compared to the same month in 2019. NAV CANADA’s fiscal year runs from September 1 to August 31.

Weighted charging units represent a traffic measure that reflects the number of flights, aircraft size and distance flown in Canadian airspace.

2020%20WCU-Apr-Eng.jpg

Wow

 

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Porter Airlines deferring resumption of service to July 29

From Porter Airlines

porter.jpg?w=200

TORONTO / May 26, 2020 – Porter Airlines is deferring its resumption of flights until July 29, one month later than previously scheduled, due to ongoing COVID-19 travel restrictions. 

“We want to see our planes in the sky as soon as possible and are actively working to prepare for our resumption of service. However, the ongoing uncertainty presented by government travel restrictions, including border closures, is impacting our ability to operate flights,” said Michael Deluce, president and CEO of Porter Airlines. “We are closely watching developments and know that Porter will be an important part of providing people with travel options as the economy recovers.”

Seasonal summer markets that Porter intended to serve in 2020 are being cancelled as part of this service deferral. Muskoka, Ont., and Stephenville, N.L., are the two destinations affected.

Porter is preparing to introduce enhanced health and safety measures for its return to service. Details of these initiatives will be announced closer to when flights restart, so that plans are as closely aligned with the latest public health recommendations as possible.

To provide flexibility and give travellers peace of mind when purchasing for future travel, Porter is waiving change and cancellation fees on all fares booked between today and July 29. This also applies to Porter Escapes vacation packages.

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From Harbour Air Seaplanes

HA-Web_Banner_FlightsResume_05.27.2020.p

Daily flights now operating between Vancouver, Victoria, Nanaimo, Sechelt and Salt Spring Island

Over the past 38 years, Harbour Air has become a vital transportation link for coastal British Columbia. During the last few weeks, we have also seen the impact our service reductions have had on the communities we support. We know that “returning to operations” is not a “return to normal.” As we look towards the future, we are working hard to ensure that we are providing the safe, essential travel services you’ve come to expect from Harbour Air.

The safety of our employees, their families and our communities is of the utmost importance to us. Please rest assured, we have adopted stringent safety measures that exceed both Transport Canada and Health Canada’s recommendations. We have introduced vigilant cleaning and physical distancing protocols, suspended scheduled flights and reduced our operations across the Province.

Although we will continue to monitor the demand for all routes, daily flight schedules are now in effect for several routes.

Now flying:

  • Vancouver/Victoria 
  • Vancouver/Nanaimo
  • Vancouver/Sechelt 
  • Nanaimo/Sechelt 
  • Vancouver/Salt Spring Island 

Resuming soon:

  • Richmond (YVR South)/Victoria – resuming June 1
  • Richmond (YVR South)/Nanaimo – resuming June 1
  • Vancouver/Maple Bay – resuming June 1
  • Vancouver/Tofino – resuming June 5
  • Vancouver/Comox – resuming June 29

View Flight Schedules

These flights are currently available to book online or through our reservations team. Parcel Express shipping services are also available on all flights. For more information, contact us by email  anytime or by phone from 8:00 am to 5:00 pm PST daily. Click here to view the opening hours for each terminal. 

Prioritizing Passenger Safety

For the safety of our flight crew and private flight passengers, we will continue to enforce the following conditions:

  • All ground and flight crew will have their temperature checked upon arriving and departing at the workplace.
  • Passengers will be required to complete a health declaration form before travel and may have their temperature checked using a no-touch thermometer.
  • Passengers will be provided with gloves and masks, required to be worn for the entire flight and while in terminal.
  • Our front line team may deny boarding to any passenger whom they believe may be unfit to travel.
  • We will continue to follow the stringent cleaning and sanitation protocols in place and provide ample access to hand sanitizer in all terminals as well as pre- and post- flight.
  • We will offer no touch payment, having increased our tap payment limit to $250.
  • We have installed plastic dividers at check-in and visual markers in terminals to enforce physical distancing.

With these measures in place, please be

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Coronavirus: EasyJet plans up to 4,500 job cuts

  • 28 May 2020
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EasyJet planeImage copyrightTF-IMAGES

EasyJet has said it will cut up to 30% of its workforce - about 4,500 jobs - as it struggles with a collapse in air travel caused by the virus pandemic.

The airline did not say exactly how many jobs would go, but it employed 15,000 people at the start of 2020.

Pilots' union Balpa reacted angrily, describing the move as an "ill-considered knee-jerk reaction".

EasyJet, which has big operations at Gatwick and Luton airports, confirmed it would restart flights on 15 June.

However, it said that levels of market demand seen in 2019 were not likely to be reached again until 2023.

It added that in the coming days, it would launch an employee consultation process on the planned job cuts.

It grounded its entire fleet in March as global travel came to a near-halt.

'Difficult decisions'

"To effect the restructure of our business, EasyJet will shortly launch an employee consultation process on proposals to reduce staff numbers by up to 30%, reflecting the reduced fleet, the optimisation of our network and bases, improved productivity as well as the promotion of more efficient ways of working," the firm said.

EasyJet chief executive Johan Lundgren said: "We realise that these are very difficult times and we are having to consider very difficult decisions which will impact our people, but we want to protect as many jobs as we can for the long-term.

He said the airline was planning to reduce the size of its fleet and would continue to cut costs.

"We want to ensure that we emerge from the pandemic an even more competitive business than before, so that easyJet can thrive in the future."

Other airlines have already announced job cuts and restructuring programmes as they fight to stay in business. These include:

The travel industry's hopes of reopening for business as global lockdowns ease have been dealt a blow by the UK government's plan to introduce a 14-day quarantine for all arrivals.

From 8 June, people entering the UK from abroad, including returning holidaymakers, will be told to isolate for 14 days or face a £1,000 fine.

In a letter to the Home Secretary, Priti Patel, hotels and holiday firms said the policy would reduce visitor numbers and could make it harder for Britons to travel abroad.

Meanwhile, tour operator Tui has said all its holidays for UK customers will now be suspended until at least the end of June. It had previously cancelled all trips up to 11 June.

It has also suspended its Marella Cruises sailings until 30 July.

Rival tour operator Jet2holidays has also suspended its holidays until 30 June.

The UK's Foreign and Commonwealth Office continues to advise against all but essential international travel.

'Kick in the teeth'

"EasyJet staff will be shocked at the scale of this announcement and only two days ago, staff got a 'good news' message from their boss with no mention of job losses, so this is a real kick in the teeth," said Brian Strutton of Balpa.

"Those staff have taken pay cuts to keep the airline afloat and this is the treatment they get in return. EasyJet has not discussed its plans with Balpa, so we will wait and see what impact there will be in the UK," he added.

"EasyJet's own projections, though on the pessimistic side, point to recovery by 2023, so this is a temporary problem that doesn't need this ill-considered knee-jerk reaction."

Lindsey Olliver, the EasyJet officer for the Unite union, said the airline had made "an unnecessarily hasty decision".

She added: "The workforce is currently furloughed under the government's job retention scheme and the airline will continue to receive support until at least October.

"It has also received a government-backed loan of £600m and has committed to expenditure on new aircraft."

She said Unite did not know where the job losses were planned and would be seeking "clarification" from the company.

EasyJet reaffirmed that it would be introducing security measures to protect against the spread of coronavirus when it resumes flights.

These include requiring passengers and crew to wear masks and not offering on-board meals.

The airline said it would release half-year results, covering the six months to the end of March, on 30 June.

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  • 1 month later...

Coronavirus: 14 Hawaiian Airlines flight attendants test positive for COVID-19

The stewards are now said to be in quarantine

What does air travel look like with new coronavirus restrictions?

Kurt Knutsson on air travel in a post-coronavirus world.

Fourteen flight attendants employed by Hawaiian Airlines have tested positive for the novel coronavirus after attending a training session at the carrier's Honolulu headquarters, a spokesperson for the carrier announced.

The stewards are now said to be in quarantine, and the airline has canceled its flight attendant training programming.

 

QATAR AIRWAYS REQUIRING PASSENGERS TO WEAR FACE MASK AND SHIELD WHILE ONBOARD

"We are supporting our team members in their recovery, and other employees involved in the training have been self-monitoring their health, in accordance with CDC and state Department of Health guidance provided to us," a spokesperson for Hawaiian confirmed on Tuesday, per USA Today.

"We have also reinforced our office protocols to keep our employees safe and have temporarily canceled our flight attendant training in order to deep clean our facilities."

A representative for the carrier was not immediately available to offer further comment.

 

Amid the coronavirus health crisis, Hawaii has mandated a 14-day quarantine for out-of-state visitors, though starting next month they will be able to avoid the quarantine order if they can provide proof of a negative test for COVID-19 within 72 hours of travel.

Those who cannot produce proof of a negative test would still be required to quarantine for 14 days.

As of Wednesday morning, the Hawaii State Department of Health reports that there have been 1,071 cases of COVID-19 in the Aloha State. The viral disease has claimed the lives of 19 people.

 

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Air North cancels remaining summer 2020 YK-Ottawa flights

Published: July 8, 2020 at 11:20amOLLIE WILLIAMS


Air North says the Covid-19 pandemic has forced it to cancel all remaining summer 2020 flights between Whitehorse, Yellowknife, and Ottawa.

An Air North Boeing 737 is pictured in May 2009. RAF-YYC/Wikimedia

The flights – Yellowknife’s only scheduled passenger service direct to either Yukon or Ontario – have been seasonal since January 2019, when their frequency was reduced.

This summer’s service had been scheduled to begin in May but, like many other flights across Canada, was disrupted by the pandemic.

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On Wednesday, Air North said it could no longer offer a small number of flights at the end of August as initially hoped.

In a statement, the company said heightened competition, new regulations, and the problem of selling middle seats on aircraft had contributed to the decision.

“There’s been a lot of news coverage lately about other carriers starting to sell middle seats. In our small market, we know that not everybody is ready to get on a full airplane,” said Joe Sparling, Air North’s president and chief executive, in a statement.

“Right now, this means we will not be selling or assigning middle seats other than to passengers belonging to the same social bubble, such as families or workforce travellers whose workforce travel programs have unique and robust safety protocols.”

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The airline says capping the number of middle seats it sells would not be commercially viable on the Whitehorse-Yellowknife-Ottawa route.

Air North will instead “closely monitor” developments ahead of deciding whether to reinstate the service for the Christmas season.

Passengers with booked flights affected by Wednesday’s announcement will be offered a travel credit valid for 24 months from the date of travel.

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OTTAWA -- Canadian and U.S. officials have agreed to keep the border between the two countries closed to non-essential travel until August 21, CTV News has confirmed.

Sources say both governments are on the same page with extending the border restriction measures for another month.

The ban on discretionary travel was first introduced in March and has been extended each month since. The latest extension was set to expire on July 21.

The agreement, as it stands, exempts the flow of trade and commerce, as well as temporary foreign workers and vital health-care workers such as nurses who live and work on opposite sides of the border. Tourists and cross-border visits remain prohibited.

During a press briefing following a call with U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau teased that a decision on the border would be coming later in the week.

Trudeau said that talks were “ongoing,” and vowed to “continue to work hard to keep Canadians safe and to keep our economies flowing.”

This comes as some U.S. political figures in border states have been pressuring Canada to begin a phased reopening of the shared border, despite the surging number of new cases of COVID-19 in parts of the United States, with some regions reporting record-breaking new daily case counts.

On Monday, CNN reported that nearly one in every 100 Americans has tested positive for the novel coronavirus, with more than 3.3 million cases confirmed. 

More people have died in the United States from coronavirus than there are confirmed COVID-19 cases in Canada. 

In an interview on CTV News Channel, Windsor, Ont. Mayor Drew Dilkens said he is happy to keep the border closed for now, and is not surprised by the decision because the current case count in the U.S. remains a “cause for alarm.”

“As much as folks in my community consider Detroit and Michigan to be an extension of our backyard — certainly used to go over for groceries and gas and shopping and professional sports and theatre — that's going to have to wait a little while longer,” he said.  

At the end of June the federal government announced it would be extending to July 31 a ban on foreign travellers that exempted the United States. 

The U.S. was exempt because of the ongoing a separate travel restriction agreement with Canada. It’s this agreement that sources say will be renewed for the fourth time since the COVID-19 pandemic was declared.  

As of June 9, foreign nationals who are immediate family members of either Canadian citizens or permanent residents can enter Canada to be reunited, under a limited exemption to the current border restrictions. This has allowed both foreign and cross-border Canada-U.S. families to reunite under certain stipulations. 

There have been instances, however, when U.S. travellers have entered into Canada improperly. This has resulted in Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) officials being asked to take additional measures to screen who is looking to enter this country. 

When asked in May what the benchmarks will be for signs it's an appropriate time to loosen travel restrictions, Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam said that the first step would be carefully reopening travel restrictions within Canada.

She said drastically limiting who has been able to enter the country over the last few months -- specifically international visitors -- has been key to Canada controlling the outbreak.

Even when international travel can resume, Tam said the 14-day mandatory quarantine and follow-up enforcement of that order will remain "a cornerstone" of the disease control measures.

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Here is the reality for CDN airlines - it is more likely than not that the CAN/US border will be closed for non-essential travel until year end 2020. Even if the US government softens its position, this Federal government will not. The US is a petri dish for the virus and there is little chance that Canada will open the border with 60,000+ new cases per day being recorded in the US. Of perhaps greater concern - US jurisdictions with 15-20% positivity rates in testing. That may manifest an actual infected population 10x higher than the recorded cases.

Equally impactful, the CPHO has the ear of JT and she is making clear that the 14 day quarantine policy for arriving international passengers will be in place for the foreseeable future.

So it would appear that best case is to get to a Canada ‘bubble’ for unrestricted travel. We are not even there yet.

For the remainder of 2020 CDN airlines may be looking at planned capacity of 30-50% domestic/10% trans border/20% international. That would be an aggregate capacity for a large global carrier like AC of just 30%. That is well below what AC had forecast or financially modelled.

Summer 2021 seems to be the logical target for meaningful capacity recovery only if the virus infection rate decreases, or an effective vaccine is developed, or global travel restrictions are lifted.

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The US seems to be on it's way to getting every citizen infected.  Maybe that's an unfortunate good thing (aside from the deaths), to get it over with.  The death rate is lower in the US compared last time I checked to here (4% verses our 8%).  It could be that the US economy will get going faster than here, where we will continue to isolate as a country well into 2021 (CEWS has been extended to December with a possibility into 2021).  Our economy is going to make Greece (circa 2010) look prosperous.  

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America is thinking with its wallet and the ultimate cost won't be shown in the death rate. Let's say they lose 4% of those infected and a total of 5% of the population gets it in the next year. That's 16.4 million cases and at a death rate of 4%, that's 650,000 people dead. The economic impacts of that will make a three month lockdown look like a tea party. And it's not just deaths. Of the group that survives, a significant portion are going to suffer long term health effects that will make it difficult - if not impossible - for them to return to their former jobs when they "recover". 

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11 minutes ago, J.O. said:

America is thinking with its wallet and the ultimate cost won't be shown in the death rate. Let's say they lose 4% of those infected and a total of 5% of the population gets it in the next year. That's 16.4 million cases and at a death rate of 4%, that's 650,000 people dead. The economic impacts of that will make a three month lockdown look like a tea party. And it's not just deaths. Of the group that survives, a significant portion are going to suffer long term health effects that will make it difficult - if not impossible - for them to return to their former jobs when they "recover". 

Across the broader section of the infected population (not just those showing up at hospitals or testing centres) the effective mortality rate after exposure is likely between 0.1-0.5%. Obviously higher in segmented demographics or high risk populations.

Having said that, if the US ends up with 200+ million infected it could be looking at up to 1 million COVID related deaths.

And there are the lasting side effects for those with severe symptoms requiring intensive care.

The US is headed in one direction. Most of the other first world countries are headed in the other direction. None will risk allowing the most infected population to bring the disease within their borders.

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  • 3 weeks later...
Quote

Porter again delays restart date, aims to resume flights in October

Tue Aug04, 2020 - The Globe & Mail
Eric Atkins

Toronto-based Porter Airlines has delayed its restart for the third time, citing travel restrictions and quarantine rules intended to slow the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Porter, which grounded all planes on March 21 and laid off most of its 1,500-member workforce, will restart on Oct. 7, not Aug. 31.

“Key factors affecting the ability to restart service include the Canada-U.S. border remaining closed to non-essential travel until at least Aug. 21; the Atlantic Canada travel bubble that restricts movement beyond the region; non-essential travel advisories issued by governments; and mandatory quarantine rules,” Porter said on Tuesday.

Porter previously announced - then pushed back - service resumptions on June 29 and July 29.

“We never intended to suspend operations for such an extended period of time,” said Michael Deluce, chief executive officer of Porter. “Unfortunately, the layers of travel restrictions are serving to keep most people at home and show no signs of easing. We will continue making decisions based on how the situation evolves.”

The airline, which operates out of Toronto’s Billy Bishop Airport, flies De Havilland Dash-8s to cities in Eastern Canada and the United States. 

 

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