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CUPE Component at WestJet expects layoff of 50%

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So many businesses will be similarly affected that one has to wonder where the money will come from.  

Specifically to airlines, though, I wonder how a management group can now be expected go about making any sort of prediction of when demand will return and by how much.

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48 minutes ago, CanadaEH said:

What benefit does the union have by going to the media with this? Absolutely ridiculous. 

It's only common in unionized environments.  Maybe posturing for government support, as I'm sure all of the airlines and many other enterprises will be?

WestJet is anyway be required to inform the Ministry of Labour of its layoff plans, and it becomes public knowledge then.

 

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The prediction right now is that the airlines will be looking at being back to capacity come June for the summer schedule.

That does seem to follow the time frame of the Chinese waning of the outbreak.  Currently active cases in China are less than active cases in the USA.  We are 50 days behind China so our worst is yet to come.

.Interesting that John Hopkins University ran a simulation in October of just such an outbreak and their models predicted it almost perfectly.  The patters matched almost to a T.

The kicker is that the travel bans made ZERO difference to the pattern of the outbreak.

 

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57 minutes ago, boestar said:

The prediction right now is that the airlines will be looking at being back to capacity come June for the summer schedule.

That does seem to follow the time frame of the Chinese waning of the outbreak.  Currently active cases in China are less than active cases in the USA.  We are 50 days behind China so our worst is yet to come.

.Interesting that John Hopkins University ran a simulation in October of just such an outbreak and their models predicted it almost perfectly.  The patters matched almost to a T.

The kicker is that the travel bans made ZERO difference to the pattern of the outbreak.

 

I highly doubt that by June airlines will be "back to capacity". 

Delta is parking 300 planes and has cut capacity by 40% with cuts through the summer. Most major airlines are similar. 

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1 hour ago, CanadaEH said:

I highly doubt that by June airlines will be "back to capacity". 

Delta is parking 300 planes and has cut capacity by 40% with cuts through the summer. Most major airlines are similar. 

I agree. This isn’t SARS. It’s going to affect the industry for 12 months minimum, more if a real recession materializes.

Edited by J.O.
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IMO, once the peak passes demand will snap back quickly.  That is unless a recession is triggered.

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5 hours ago, seeker said:

IMO, once the peak passes demand will snap back quickly.  That is unless a recession is triggered.

What do you define as "the peak"? 

Governments aren't going to have money to support airlines on the brink. Airlines are going to fail because of this. Airlines will accelerate fleet reductions. Capital expenditures will and are being delayed. Capacity and demand is going to drop significantly and it will take years to come back. In the meantime hospitality, tourism, and travel businesses - large and small - will fail. If people don't have jobs, why would they spend money on a trip they can't afford? Sorry but I'm not buying that there is going to be a quick recovery. 

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https://onemileatatime.com/lot-polish-airlines-suspends-flights/

Polish national airline LOT has announced that they will be suspending all flights as of March 15, 2020, for a period of 10 days. This includes the company’s flights from both Poland and Hungary (as they even operate long haul flights out of Budapest).

While the company claims that cancelations will only last for 10 days, I’d note that I see all LOT fights “zeroed out” (meaning all inventory has been removed) through March 29, 2020. That suggests to me that they may plan on this lasting at least two weeks.

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6 hours ago, seeker said:

IMO, once the peak passes demand will snap back quickly.  That is unless a recession is triggered.

I agree, the problem is the recession.

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1 hour ago, CanadaEH said:

What do you define as "the peak"? 

Governments aren't going to have money to support airlines on the brink. Airlines are going to fail because of this. Airlines will accelerate fleet reductions. Capital expenditures will and are being delayed. Capacity and demand is going to drop significantly and it will take years to come back. In the meantime hospitality, tourism, and travel businesses - large and small - will fail. If people don't have jobs, why would they spend money on a trip they can't afford? Sorry but I'm not buying that there is going to be a quick recovery. 

I guess we have different opinions, so we'll compare notes in a year and see.  I define "peak" as what's going on in China now - a decreasing number of cases of infection.  Some talking-head on the news yesterday stated that NA is about 50 days behind China in this scenario.  This kinda jives with Trump's Dr. who said he thought we face about 6-8 weeks before the crisis is on the downtrend.

No doubt all this will have a huge impact on the world's economy and certain industries in particular but I think lots of it will cancel out.  Some of the weaker businesses involved in transport and vacations will fail.  This obviously is catastrophic for those affected but leaves the stronger companies better off (with fuel hedged at much lower prices).  The governments of the world will throw huge amounts of borrowed cash at their respective economies and all those travel and hotel credits will need to get used.  There will be a huge pent up demand (trips to relatives, etc) and higher than normal participation in upcoming events (after the crisis) because the people didn't get to go to the last one.  I expect much better winter travel numbers next winter and next year's Spring break will the the MOASB (mother of all spring breaks) 'cause this one got cancelled.   The only place where I expect significant long-term pain is the cruise industry - people have finally realized that a cruise ship is just a big floating petri dish and will be hesitant for some time.

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WestJet set to slash international, domestic flights amid coronavirus outbreak

Quote

'WestJet Airlines is set to slash its international seat capacity by 60 per cent and cut domestic flights by at least 40 per cent amid government actions to limit travel to contain the global COVID-19 pandemic.

Calgary-based WestJet has halted capital projects and asked vendors for price cuts, but did not say how many layoffs are in store for the company’s 12,000 flight attendants, pilots and others employees.

“We continue to see a significant reduction in demand and are evaluating all available measure to secure the financial viability of our airline,” Canada’s second-largest airline said late Saturday.'

“Unfortunately, we … have no alternative but to reduce the number of employees.'

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28 minutes ago, Airband said:

Calgary-based WestJet has halted capital projects and asked vendors for price cuts,

Who vets these statements? When I read this, all I see is “let’s take advantage of the situation to improve our bottom line on the backs of our suppliers”. 

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34 minutes ago, J.O. said:

Who vets these statements? When I read this, all I see is “let’s take advantage of the situation to improve our bottom line on the backs of our suppliers”. 

I was left wondering if this is the beginning of the "Onex effect".

The entire article from the Globe doesn't paint WJ in a very good light. 

Days and years gone by, WJ had a great read on their audience, the Swoop TP joke is incredibly bad timing imo, at what we hope is the height of the hysteria. 

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”Marc Garneau, Transport Minister, said on Friday Canada will restrict incoming international flights to a yet-to-be determined list of Canadian airports. The move could make returning home tougher for Canadians but is intended to allow the government to better screen people for COVID-19 exposure.”

To better screen them? They still don’t get screened at all!

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3 hours ago, conehead said:

To better screen them? They still don’t get screened at all!

Returning home from abroad on Thursday I was pretty surprised that I had no scrutiny at all.

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I’m departing Phoenix in about an hour and a half.

I shall report my experience...

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12 minutes ago, Maverick said:

I’m departing Phoenix in about an hour and a half.

I shall report my experience...

Including the passenger load?

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7 hours ago, J.O. said:

Who vets these statements? When I read this, all I see is “let’s take advantage of the situation to improve our bottom line on the backs of our suppliers”. 

Has absolutely nothing to do with improving the bottom line. As of right now there is nothing but a bottom and it's falling out fast. Help us or we won't be here to help you. 

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7 hours ago, AIP said:

I was left wondering if this is the beginning of the "Onex effect".

The entire article from the Globe doesn't paint WJ in a very good light. 

Days and years gone by, WJ had a great read on their audience, the Swoop TP joke is incredibly bad timing imo, at what we hope is the height of the hysteria. 

This was not a message for the public. 

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1 hour ago, conehead said:

Including the passenger load?

Loads inbound are very full. Loads outbound on the other hand.......

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