Coronavirus_2020.01.28

[boestar]

Omicron is now doubling its infections every 1.5 - 3 days.  Inside of a month everyone should have it.

Mutation is more virulent but symptoms are far less apparently.

 

[Wolfhunter]

9 hours ago, boestar said:

Inside of a month everyone should have it.

It seems like we're on track for that alright.

Nature has a way of imposing equilibrium. As it does, I think we will come to realize that pure bloods and lab rats alike have one thing in common… neither group will ever be fully vaccinated.

[deicer]

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/how-effective-are-covid-19-vaccines-against-omicron

[GDR]

Thanks for that deicer. Here is an interesting quote from that article. 

Vaccine uptake – the proportion of a population that gets vaccinated – can also influence vaccine effectiveness. When a large enough proportion of the population is vaccinated, herd immunity begins to come into play. Vaccines with moderate or even low efficacy can work very well at a population level. Likewise, vaccines with high efficacy in clinical trials, like coronavirus vaccines, may have lower effectiveness and a small impact if there isn’t high vaccine uptake in the population.

It seems to me that the article indicates that the vaccines lose their effectivness as the virus adjusts to them, and that ultimately it will be herd immunity that will bring it under control.

Here is another quote from the article as to how the vaccines work with the Omicron variant.

A preprint study – one not formally reviewed by other scientists yet – that was conducted in Germany found that antibodies in blood collected from people fully vaccinated with Moderna and Pfizer showed reduced efficacy in neutralizing the omicron variant. Other small preprint studies in South Africa and England showed a significant decrease in how well antibodies target the omicron variant. More breakthough infections are expected, with decreased immune system ability to recognize omicron compared with other variants.

From this it looks like that the vaccines are continuing to lose effectiveness and that once again we will be back to having to obtain herd immunity. It may just be that all of these restrictions are actually counter-productive in that they make the development of herd immunity take a lot longer to develop, and in the meantime we continue to see a large increase in the social problems in our society. 

Merry Christmas a a covid free 2022 to all. 

Greg

 

 

[Wolfhunter]

39 minutes ago, GDR said:

It seems to me that the article indicates that the vaccines lose their effectivness as the virus adjusts to them, and that ultimately it will be herd immunity that will bring it under control.

Thanks for the information. That's a surprising admission IMO even though it's what high school biology suggests... it seems to be a common sentiment with de-platformed Phd’s when they caution against indiscriminate (meaning un-targeted) mass vaccination efforts.

Time will tell but I perceive that many (in my little circle anyway) are loath to accept the notion that a (near) non-symptomatic variant requires a booster. Some are looking ahead to next fall and wondering if a second booster will be required to maintain their vax pass, and some (previously hardcore vaxxers) are rejecting the booster option outright.    

In short though, I detect a note of cynicism across the board now and systemically, nothing says trust the science quite like you can’t sue if something goes wrong, and we need 55 years to release the vaccine data. From a PR perspective, that might have been handled a bit better.

Anyway, I still maintain that high school biology, basic arithmetic, common sense and human compassion is what will see us through this. We may need to walk around the mountain with full packs a few times to find it though. 

Here's a humorous aviation themed analogy I found somewhere (don't remember where) but it's not mine:

 A passenger with asthma begins having trouble breathing.

In response, the crew manually deploy the cabin oxygen masks and demand everyone put one on immediately. Failure to comply means your name will be placed on the no fly list for non compliance.

So, under threat of being banned most passengers comply, even though they have no use for the mask. Those that refuse are labeled oxygen deniers, they're harassed by the other masked passengers, charged by police at destination, and then placed on a no fly list.

Cheers

 

Edited December 20, 2021 by Wolfhunter

[GDR]

Here is the type of article that I find troubling.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/omicron-spreading-and-infecting-the-vaccinated-who-1.5714259

In this article there is no mention at all of anything but the use of vaccines, either the ones we have or variations of them. There is no mention of;

1/ herd immunity

2/ treatment of the virus by some of the means already available

3/ that the Omicrom variant is less lethal than what we have been dealing with

[Jaydee]

Basically back to square one in Quebec. I can see Ontario following their lead shortly.

 

Quebec shuts down schools, bars, gyms and more as COVID-19 case counts soar.

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/new-closures-covid-19-quebec-1.6292622

Edited December 20, 2021 by Jaydee

[Wolfhunter]

2 hours ago, GDR said:

1/ herd immunity

2/ treatment of the virus by some of the means already available

3/ that the Omicrom variant is less lethal than what we have been dealing with

Agreed, I find it all troubling and a bit baffling at the same time.

1. I don’t think “herd immunity” will be achieved by vaccination efforts. It didn’t make sense to me in the beginning and it makes even less sense now.

2. For some reason, there seems to be public resistance to treatment options in the form of relatively innocuous (cheap and available) existing medications… it baffles me. Ivermectin comes instantly to mind. The public ridicule and screams of horse paste etc were/are just breathtaking, they completely overshadowed any rational discussion of efficacy. 

3. Who knows, maybe Omicron is a silver bullet here. Whether it was conceived by mass vaccination efforts or was distributed globally by fully vaccinated individuals is now irrelevant IMO…. it’s here and we have to deal with it. On the plus side, maybe its comparatively milder symptoms and ease of transmission will provide the very catalyst for heard immunity that vaccination efforts failed to deliver. No one seems to be saying so, but maybe it’s a blessing in disguise and signals the beginning of the end for covid.

 

 

 

 

Edited December 20, 2021 by Wolfhunter

[deicer]

https://abc7.com/donald-trump-covid-booster-shot-dallas/11361974/

Donald Trump booed in Dallas after revealing he got COVID booster shot

The former president made the disclosure Sunday night during the final stop of "The History Tour"

[Airband]

or we could just look at the relative numbers of vaccinated vs unvaccinated of who are dying/populating the ICU's. High school math.

[Jaydee]

[Jaydee]

The Omicron Covid-19 variant is now the most dominant strain in the US, accounting for over 73% of new coronavirus cases less than three weeks after the first was reported, according to estimates posted Monday by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

It's been just 20 days since the US detected its first case of Omicron.

“ Omicron is now the dominant COVID strain in the U.S., making up 73% of new infections”

The omicron variant is now considered the most dominant version of the coronavirus — making up 73% of new COVID-19 infections last week in the U.S., according to new data released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Monday.

The new estimates capture cases for the week that ended on Dec. 18. 

The new estimates underscore just how rapidly it has spread across the U.S. As of a week prior, Dec. 11, it was only detected in 12.6% of positive COVID-19 cases that were sampled.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/12/20/1066083896/omicron-is-now-the-dominant-covid-strain-in-the-u-s-making-up-73-of-cases

[Airband]

17 hours ago, Wolfhunter said:

Whether it was conceived by mass vaccination efforts or was distributed globally by fully vaccinated individuals is now irrelevant IMO

Yeah maybe the answer's to just swap out the poison in those vials with a 100 mcg of spine stiffener and this whole covid thing disappears....

[GDR]

Pfizer appears to be somewhat unscrupulous.

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/pfizer-funded-talks-contained-untrue-negative-information-about-rival-covid-vaccines-experts-say

 

[GDR]

Here's food for thought.

https://unherd.com/2021/11/how-fear-fuels-the-vaccine-wars/

[Seeker]

4 hours ago, GDR said:

Pfizer appears to be somewhat unscrupulous.

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/pfizer-funded-talks-contained-untrue-negative-information-about-rival-covid-vaccines-experts-say

 

You don't say.  So, in addition to being a criminal organization, they are also liars.  Good to know.

[GDR]

Here is an interesting study done by the "Office for National Statistics" of the UK government. It shows that so far the data seems to indicate that those that have the booster are more likely to get omicron variant than those who are unvaccinated. Here is a quote from the article.

Vaccination status: those who have received three doses of a vaccine and test positive for COVID-19 are more likely to be infected with infections compatible with the Omicron variant compared with those who are unvaccinated, though individuals who had received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine continued to be less likely to test positive for COVID-19, regardless of variant. It is too early to draw conclusions from our data on the effectiveness of vaccines against the Omicron variant.

 Here is the whole report.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/news/statementsandletters/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveyearlyanalysisofcharacteristicsassociatedwiththeomicronvariantamongcovid19infectionsuk20december2021

[Jaydee]

[GDR]

Encouraging news

https://globalnews.ca

As you can see in the case count at the top although the case count over the last 14 days is up 171% the death rate is down 16%. 

This seems to confirm that Omicron is not as serious as previous strains of the virus.

Also in S. Africa where Omicron has hit the hardest the rate of new cases is dropping dramatically.

https://globalnews.ca/news/8467743/omicron-covid-19-cases-drop-south-africa-end-surge/

[GDR]

Another hopeful article -

https://asiatimes.com/2021/12/why-omicron-may-be-the-final-variant-of-concern/

[Jaydee]

The Governments version……control through fear….For months and months Canada had around 2000 - 2500 new cases  /day

Today, Dec 23rd, Canada reported 20,699 and rising, with Quebec out of control., now imposing curfews again

 

 

Edited December 24, 2021 by Jaydee

[Jaydee]

The flip side of the coin….reality speaking

 

Ridiculous and extreme COVID isolation rules will have us all tuning out 

A single symptom, such as a runny nose, is a near daily thing for many allergy sufferers, perpetually grubby children, and basically anyone who goes for a walk in the cold.

The yawning gap between what politicians and public health officials are saying about Omicron on this side of the border and what they’re saying to our south is enough to induce a bad case of vertigo. U.S. President Joe Biden recently told vaccinated Americans to enjoy Christmas as usual. Meanwhile, we’re caught in a tornado of panic bound to leave a path of economic, psychological, and political destruction in its wake.

America’s approach may turn out to be under cautious, but the policies coming out of some of Canada’s public health units have practically smashed the Overton window. The ridiculous and extreme have become acceptable almost overnight. Perhaps the most egregious example of this comes courtesy of Ottawa Public Health.

This week, medical officer of health Dr. Vera Etches announced that if anyone in a household has a single COVID-19 symptom –– just one! –– that the entire household must self-isolate for 10 days, regardless of vaccination status. If another person develops a single symptom during that time frame, the clock starts all over again in an absurd loop that could see families isolating for weeks on end. Etches told CTV that these are the guidelines coming from the province.

 

Wherever the rules came from, it’s the most harebrained public health advice in recent memory, and that’s saying a lot. First, there’s the utter impracticality of it all. People simply can’t stay locked up for days, if not weeks on end without extremely good cause. It’s psychologically, physically, and socially damaging for adults and children alike. Beyond that, the basic conditions aren’t in place for many to do so. Too many workers and entrepreneurs lack the ability to take this sort of time off.

“Telling people that if you are sick with a runny nose, or maybe you are in the same house with (someone) with a runny nose that you’re not allowed to go out for 10 days is clearly not sustainable or pragmatic or realistic advice for respiratory tract season,” said Dr. Martha Fulford, an infectious diseases physician at McMaster University in Hamilton, to the National Post earlier this week.

A single symptom, such as a runny nose, is a near daily thing for many allergy sufferers, perpetually grubby children, and basically anyone who goes for a walk in the cold. Treating every sneeze like a Defcon-level threat simply doesn’t pass the smell test this far into the pandemic. To do so is nonsensical bordering on hysterical, and it risks further undermining fragile public trust.

Canadians are fed up, tired, and frustrated. They have very good reasons to be. This is why it’s more important than ever that public health policies and communication be clear, focused, and backed by science or solid reasoning based on what we know at the time. It must also be realistic and take into account other aspects of people’s wellbeing.

Anything less risks more people tuning out completely and simply making up their own rules as they go. Sometimes, this is mostly harmless. But it could also spell disaster if and when important rules actually need public buy-in and compliance. Credibility is public health’s most valuable asset and, once it’s lost, it’s near impossible to get back.

Malcolm Gladwell’s well known “broken windows theory” posits that any visible signs of crime or civil disorder, even if minor (like broken windows, graffiti, and jaywalking), foster an environment that promotes even more crime and disorder. People see others aren’t following the rules and lose respect for the law, which gives them psychological cover to break rules as well. Breaking one rule leads to breaking more rules.

This is exactly the scenario public health officials must seek to avoid. If people get into the habit of ignoring some COVID-19 policies or see their peers ignoring them, they’re more likely to justify further rule-breaking. This type of behaviour can spread as quickly as the virus, and may ultimately make containing it more difficult. It could also lead to more draconian measures that would be unnecessary if there was higher compliance on lighter measures. Cue the cycle starting all over again.

Public health isn’t simply about making the most medically prudent policies. It’s about weighing them with social, psychological, and economic realities. Too often, it seems Canadian public health officials create policy in a bubble, ironically unaware that saving lives must be balanced with the need to actually live life. If they hope to retain any shred of credibility, let alone control, policies like those outlined by Ottawa Public Health will be swiftly taken off the table and shredded in a back room.

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/sabrina-maddeaux-ridiculous-and-extreme-covid-isolation-rules-will-have-us-all-tuning-out

Edited December 24, 2021 by Jaydee

[Seeker]

That last paragraph pretty much sums up the problem I've had with the management of this since the beginning:

 

Public health isn’t simply about making the most medically prudent policies. It’s about weighing them with social, psychological, and economic realities. Too often, it seems Canadian public health officials create policy in a bubble, ironically unaware that saving lives must be balanced with the need to actually live life. 

[Wolfhunter]

14 hours ago, Jaydee said:

Ridiculous and extreme COVID isolation rules will have us all tuning out 

 

Xmas eve in the big village... best wishes to all

As to the quote, maybe this helps explain why.... read it as fast as you can:

Trump is a racist

Come to China Town

Don’t come to China town

Masks are bad (16 tons of free PPE to China)

Masks are good (buy masks back)

Masks are mandatory

Two weeks to flatten the curve…

N95 masks bad

N95 masks good

Border controls don’t work

Border controls are mandatory

China Vaccine good

China Vaccine bad

Mix and match vaccines good

Mix and match vaccines bad

Mix and match vaccines good

Vaccines prevent infection

Vaccines don’t prevent infection

Vaccines prevent transmission

Vaccines don’t prevent transmission

AZ vaccine good

AZ vaccine bad

AZ vaccine discontinued

Two weeks to flatten the curve…

Air travel good

Air travel bad

Protest gatherings good

Church gatherings bad

People without symptoms don’t need testing

People without symptoms need testing

We do not support mandates

We fully support mandates

Nurses are heros

Nurses are fired

Nurses are hired back

We don’t support passports

We fully support passports

It’s the summer of freedom

It’s the winter of death

We don’t need a booster

We need a booster

We need more boosters

Variants are coming

We didn’t see those variants coming

2 weeks to flatten the curve…

and my fav:

We’ll delay your time owed so you don’t get it by Xmas, enjoy being unemployed

Your unfired, it’s your duty to help the people who fired you

Trump is a racist

In other news, high school students have been telling us this for months:

 

Experts warn that cloth masks don’t work 

They’re “little more than facial decorations” says Dr. Leana Wen.

Edited December 25, 2021 by Wolfhunter

[Jaydee]

Or maybe they just didn’t really know what they thought they knew, when they didn’t know what they thought was known and told everyone who would listen that they knew.