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Coronavirus_2020.01.28

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“ As of the end of the day on Sunday, the number of deaths on the mainland had risen to 361, a figure exceeding the 349 deaths on the mainland caused by SARS. The number of infected in all of China is up to more than 17,200, a figure which vastly exceeds the case count recorded by the World Health Organization for China during the 2003 SARS outbreak.”

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“ As of the end of the day on Sunday, the number of deaths on the mainland had risen to 361, a figure exceeding the 349 deaths on the mainland caused by SARS. The number of infected in all of China is up to more than 17,200, a figure which vastly exceeds the case count recorded by the World Health Organization for China during the 2003 SARS outbreak.”

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pan·dem·ic
/panˈdemik/
adjective
 
  1. (of a disease) prevalent over a whole country or the world.
     
     
     
    Sure in the case that it is prevalent in China.  There are still only relatively few cases elsewhere in the world.
     

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It's likely that the number of infected is much higher - perhaps as many as 150,000 (mostly in China). But of those, maybe only 10% have been reported because 90% of the cases as quite mild.        

If so, the actual mortality rate is about 0.2 percent of all people, or about the same as the annual flu outbreak, and not even as serious as the global swine flu pandemic of 2009. SARS and MER also had less spread, but far greater mortality rates.

One problem with the reporting of the number of people infected is that there is only a figure for the subset who have died, not for the subset who have recovered, been discharged from hospital, etc. Of the four confirmed cases in Canada, one has been discharged already, and for all we know - because it hasn't been reported - none of the four are still hospitalized.

The virus could mutate - these virus outbreaks can get much worse or diminish very quickly. But right now, the best thing we can do, while taking the precautions we have taken as a society, is not to flip out like this is 1918-20 all over again. (The Spanish flu also had a low mortality rate, it's just that so many people were infected worldwide that the death toll looks large in hindsight. Today, we have far better knowledge of these viruses, how to respond to it, even how to treat serious cases, than we did in 1918.)

 

Edited by dagger
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14 minutes ago, dagger said:

It's likely that the number of infected is much higher - perhaps as many as 150,000 (mostly in China). But of those, maybe only 10% have been reported because 90% of the cases as quite mild.        

. . . .

Today, we have far better knowledge of these viruses, how to respond to it, even how to treat serious cases, than we did in 1918.)

And better still than when we faced SARS in 2003. From https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5249a2.htm, December 12 2003, a CDC website discussing case definitions and numbers of infected, (("MMWR" -  Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report).

Quote

During the 2003 epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), CDC and the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists (CSTE) developed surveillance criteria to identify persons with SARS. The surveillance case definition changed throughout the epidemic as understanding of the clinical, laboratory, and transmission characteristics of SARS-associated coronavirus (SARS-CoV) increased (1--5). On June 26, CSTE adopted a position statement to add SARS-CoV disease to the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System (NNDSS). The position statement included criteria for defining a SARS case for national reporting. On November 3, CSTE issued a new interim position statement* with a revised SARS case definition. This report summarizes the new U.S. surveillance case definition for SARS and updates reported cases of SARS worldwide and in the United States.

Summary of Changes to Case Definition

The revised SARS case definition (Box) modifies the clinical, epidemiologic, laboratory, and case-exclusion criteria in the U.S. surveillance case definition used during the 2003 epidemic. In the clinical criteria, "early" illness replaces "asymptomatic" or "mild" illness. The epidemiologic criteria include the following new categories: 1) possible exposure to SARS-CoV and 2) likely exposure to SARS-CoV. Laboratory criteria for evidence of SARS-CoV infection reflect advances in testing technology. The case-exclusion criteria have been changed to allow for exclusion when a serum sample collected >28 days after onset of symptoms is negative for antibody to SARS-CoV.

The revised case definition also classifies each SARS case as either a SARS report under investigation (SARS RUI) or SARS-CoV disease. SARS RUI is a sensitive, nonspecific case classification based solely on clinical or epidemiologic criteria and includes cases classified previously as probable or suspect. SARS-CoV disease is a more specific case classification based on selected clinical and epidemiologic criteria or laboratory confirmation. SARS RUIs might subsequently meet the definition for SARS-CoV disease based on results from laboratory testing (Tables 1 and 2).

Editorial Note:

The revised surveillance case definition for SARS reflects an improved understanding of the clinical and laboratory characteristics of SARS-CoV. The revision differentiates patients with nonspecific clinical illness or less definitive epidemiologic associations (i.e., SARS RUIs) from those with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV infection or more definitive epidemiologic links (i.e., cases of SARS-CoV disease). Local and state health departments will monitor SARS RUIs to ensure implementation of prompt public health measures for preventing disease transmission if SARS-CoV is confirmed subsequently. Numerous SARS RUIs probably will be excluded as SARS cases as laboratory results become available during the course of illness. Surveillance data for cases meeting the SARS-CoV disease case definition will be reported to NNDSS and included in the weekly statistical summary of notifiable infectious diseases in the United States published in MMWR (Table 1. Summary of provisional cases of selected notifiable diseases, United States).

Reporting of cases meeting previous SARS definitions ended in late July 2003. However, case numbers continue to change as new clinical information or results of additional laboratory testing on cases reported previously become available. Updated case counts reflecting these changes are available from CDC at http://www.cdc.gov/od/oc/media/sars/cases.htm.

 

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Yes, a little fear + a little (social) media = a lot of panic!

I operated PEK-LHR yesterday and the only differences I noticed were: 1) Everyone (including crew) had their temperature taken prior to boarding, 2) Everyone (except me) was wearing a mask, and 3) Everyone had to complete a short form pre-security in PEK stating that they hadn’t been to Wuhan in the past 14 days and that we had no flu-like symptoms. Arrival into LHR was 100% normal.

I also wonder why people/media are comparing this to SARS & MERS rather than regular everyday flu. The only answer I come up with is: sensationalism sells.

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Perhaps, Rich. Maybe the truth might lie this side of sensationalism as I'm not sure what's being sold - what the 'product' in terms of who directly benefits financially. "World conspiracy theories", though all the rage at the moment because they are without question designed & intended to create F.U.D., fear, uncertainty, doubt, but don't explain the phenomenon. The "abundance of caution" may be coming from the avoidance of blame . . .a genuine concern for previous patterns and responses as well as authorities in all countries managing the spread responsibly. The prospect of being trapped behind quarantine walls is another aspect as is the "management of information and perspective" by the Chinese government.

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Fear breeds Compliance.  Something to keep in mind

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Canadians with coronavirus symptoms won’t be allowed onto evacuation flight from China: officials

leslie-young-headshot.jpg?quality=70&strip=all&w=68&h=68&crop=1
BY LESLIE YOUNG GLOBAL NEWS
Posted February 3, 2020 9:51 am
Updated February 3, 2020 12:27 pm

 Coronavirus outbreak: Canadians with symptoms won’t be allowed onto evacuation flight from China.

  • Canadians who are exhibiting respiratory symptoms linked to a new coronavirus likely won’t be able to get on a flight home from China, Ontario officials said Monday.

Canada is arranging a flight to evacuate Canadian citizens from Hubei province in China, the centre of an outbreak of a novel coronavirus that has infected more than 17,000 people and killed more than 360.

A total of 325 Canadians have requested evacuation, and the federal government said Sunday that it has a flight ready to bring people back. After they arrive, evacuees will be kept under observation for two weeks at the Canadian Forces Base in Trenton, Ont.

CDNthumbersite1.jpg?w=1040&quality=70&strip=all1:56Coronavirus outbreak: 325 Canadians have requested evacuation for Hubei province

 Coronavirus outbreak: 325 Canadians have requested evacuation for Hubei province

But only healthy people will be able to board, said Dr. David Williams, chief medical officer of health for Ontario.

“In order to get inside the airport, you have to be screened by Chinese authorities. In order to get on the plane, you have to be screened,” he told reporters at a press conference Monday morning.

People who are exhibiting respiratory symptoms like coughing “can’t get on. They can’t even get in the airport,” he said.

“I think they’re going to have to stay there and get assessed in Wuhan.

“We understand from Chinese authorities if you have symptoms, you’re not going to be allowed inside the airport, let alone get on the plane.”

People who develop symptoms during the flight will be treated like infected travellers upon arrival in Canada and assessed by quarantine officers, he said.

Federal Health Minister Patty Hajdu said Monday that Canadians would be screened by Chinese authorities before they enter the airport and people with symptoms wouldn’t be able to board. Then, they would be screened again before they got on the plane.

The flight will stop for refuelling in Vancouver en route to Trenton, she said. Passengers won’t be allowed to leave the flight during the refuelling stop, although if anyone is ill before arriving in Vancouver, they will be taken off the plane and treated by B.C. health authorities.

When the plane arrives in Trenton, passengers will be required to stay for 14 days at the military base under the federal Quarantine Act, Hajdu said. This time period is about the longest possible incubation period, in which someone might begin to show symptoms if infected, officials said.

CdnthumberSite3.jpg?w=1040&quality=70&strip=all1:02Coronavirus outbreak: Canadians Forces assisting evacuation from China in ‘Operation Globe’

 Coronavirus outbreak: Canadians Forces assisting evacuation from China in ‘Operation Globe’

Passengers will be separated from each other during their stay in Trenton, Hajdu said, in order to prevent someone passing the virus on to the others if they develop symptoms.

After the 14 days are up, the government will arrange rides to Toronto, Montreal and Ottawa so that people can go home, she said.

Foreign Affairs Minister François-Philippe Champagne said that while officials don’t yet have a timeline for the flight to get home, as they’re still waiting on Chinese approval to fly into Wuhan, they will begin contacting Canadians who have requested evacuation later on Monday.

One plane will be ready to depart from Hanoi, Vietnam, very soon, he said, and the government has arranged for a second plane if necessary.

While generally only Canadian citizens will be allowed to board the plane, permanent residents in Wuhan will be allowed to return to Canada if they are the primary caregivers of Canadian children so that families can stay together, Champagne said.

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This will be very costly for Princess. You have to wonder if next there will be aircraft quarantined or if the quarantine is only because of the crew that stays onboard to operate the next sailing.

FEBRUARY 3, 2020 / 4:27 AM / UPDATED 35 MINUTES AGO

Japan to quarantine cruise ship on which coronavirus patient sailed

 

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan’s government said on Monday it would quarantine a Yokohama-bound cruise ship, after a Hong Kong man who sailed on it last month tested positive for coronavirus.

The 80-year-old man flew to Japan and boarded the ship, the Diamond Princess, run by Carnival Japan Inc, in Yokohama on Jan. 20 and disembarked on Jan. 25, NHK public broadcaster said.

He developed a cough a day before embarking but did not develop a fever until Jan. 30, a day before he was confirmed to have been infected by the virus in Hong Kong, NHK reported.

 

Princess Cruises, a Carnival-owned cruise, said the review of the arriving guests and crew was standard practice after a guest tested positive.

Japan’s chief cabinet secretary, Yoshihide Suga, said in a news conference on Monday that Japanese authorities would quarantine the vessel.

The company confirmed that the turnaround of the ship had been delayed by about 24 hours to allow Japan’s public health authorities to review the health status of all guests and crew on board.

 

The cruise had 2,666  guests and  1,045 crew on board.

Japan has 20 confirmed coronavirus cases, of these 17 people have been in Wuhan, the central Chinese city that is believed to be the centre of the virus outbreak.

Reporting by Takashi Umekawa and Aishwarya Venugopal; Editing by Alex Richardson and Vinay 

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50 minutes ago, conehead said:

Anyone know from whom they chartered the aircraft yet?

Not only that but since the passengers and crew will be quarantined for 14 days, how did they get enough crew to volunteer?  

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Does this means that they will be rounding up the Airlines Crews that fit the Bill? Not sure if any regular sked but how about the relief flight / flights?

CDC and state officials are preparing quarantine facilities for travelers from Hubei

PUBLISHED MON, FEB 3 20204:37 PM EST
KEY POINTS
  • Trump administration officials announced a mandatory 14-day quarantine on Friday for any American who has traveled to Hubei province in the two weeks prior to the announcement.
  • The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is now working with state and local health authorities to prepare facilities for quarantine.
  • Where passengers will be quarantined may vary broadly depending on where they land, U.S. health officials said.
 

GP: Coronavirus, LAX 200202

A woman waiting for an international traveler to arrive to LAX Tom Bradley International Terminal wears a medical mask for protection against the coronavirus outbreak on February 2, 2020 in Los Angeles, California.
David McNew | Getty Images

U.S. health officials revealed fresh details Monday about the order to quarantine hundreds of Americans to contain the coronavirus outbreak, which has now killed at least 362 people and sickened nearly 17,400 worldwide.

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47 minutes ago, Marshall said:

Not only that but since the passengers and crew will be quarantined for 14 days, how did they get enough crew to volunteer?  

That's a lot of TTG. A contract that I'm familiar with would pay an entire month's credit for the 2 week quarantine.

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53 minutes ago, Marshall said:

Not only that but since the passengers and crew will be quarantined for 14 days, how did they get enough crew to volunteer?  

Could be a dream come true for some... anyway, I heard they’re all staying at Kip’s house. 😃

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Trivia......

Coronaviruses are a family of viruses known for containing strains that cause potentially deadly diseases in mammals and birds. In humans they're typically spread via airborne droplets of fluid produced by infected individuals.

Some rare but notable strains, including Wuhan coronavirus (2019-nCoV), and those responsible for severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), can cause death in humans.

 

First described in detail in the 1960s, the coronavirus gets its name from a distinctive corona or 'crown' of sugary-proteins that projects from the envelope surrounding the particle. Encoding the virus's make-up is the longest genome of any RNA-based virus – a single strand of nucleic acid roughly 26,000 to 32,000 bases long. 

ScreenShot001.jpg.3040254ead235ae7c17219a4f6437a7e.jpgScreenShot002.jpg.23c8ebb6865b93c335122c86ead018a2.jpg

There are four known genuses in the family, named Alphacoronavirus, Betacoronavirus, Gammacoronavirus, and Deltacoronavirus. The first two only infect mammals, including bats, pigs, cats, and humans. Gammacoronavirus mostly infects birds such as poultry, while Deltacoronavirus can infect both birds and mammals.

 

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4 minutes ago, conehead said:

Could be a dream come true for some... anyway, I heard they’re all staying at Kip’s house. 😃

I think they are probably staying in the Air Cadets Quarters as they are vacant this time of year.......or they went into one of the Junior Ranks blocks and moved the Junior Ranks into the Air Cadet buildings.

I'm sure there will be some of the local populace that won't even drive by CFB Trenton   now.....

There is no news or "where" on the local radio stations other than "CFB Trenton"............and I am NOT volunteering my residence .😯

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Coronavirus update: 425 dead

Health authorities in China announced on Tuesday that coronavirus fatalities had risen to 425 nationwide and that total confirmed cases hit 20,438 as of Monday.

The updated numbers follow 64 new deaths attributable to the illness in the mainland and 3,235 confirmed cases, according to the country’s National Health Commission.

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Coronavirus update: 425 dead

Health authorities in China announced on Tuesday that coronavirus fatalities had risen to 425 nationwide and that total confirmed cases hit 20,438 as of Monday.

The updated numbers follow 64 new deaths attributable to the illness in the mainland and 3,235 confirmed cases, according to the country’s National Health Commission.

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40 minutes ago, Jaydee said:

Coronavirus update: 425 dead

Health authorities in China announced on Tuesday that coronavirus fatalities had risen to 425 nationwide and that total confirmed cases hit 20,438 as of Monday.

The updated numbers follow 64 new deaths attributable to the illness in the mainland and 3,235 confirmed cases, according to the country’s National Health Commission.

I'm not belittling the situation in China - viruses mutate. And if to the extent this can be contained, fine.

But let's not overlook a bigger killer in our midst.

 

This was the state of the seasonal flu outbreak, in the US, as of Dec 27, 2019

Quote

 

In today's FluView update from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), experts say the flu season is in full swing with an estimated 4.6 million flu illnesses, 39,000 hospitalizations and 2,100 deaths from flu so far this season.

The rate of outpatient visits for influenza-like illnesses (ILI) spiked in the week ending on Dec 21, from 3.9% to 5.1% — a trend typically seen during winter holidays. Rates of ILI have been above the national baseline of 2.4% for 7 weeks.

Twenty-five states and the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and New York City reported high levels of ILI. Flu activity was described as widespread in 39 states.

Hospitalization rates increase

The CDC said hospitalization rates rose to 6.6 per 100,000 population, up from 5.5 per 100,000 population during the second week of December. The highest rate of hospitalization was among adults aged older than 65 (14.4 per 100,000 population), followed by children ages 0 to 4 (12.5 per 100,000 population) and adults ages 50 to 64 (7.0 per 100,000 population). All age groups have seen a significant increase in the last week.

The CDC said hospitalization rates mirror previous seasons.

 

 

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What an a-hole

 

 

Ontario man arrested, charged with mischief over apparent hoax

Derick Deoanrain · Posted: Feb 03, 2020 10:40 PM ET | Last Updated: an hour ago
 
westjet-ottawa-international-airport-yow
A WestJet flight to Jamaica returned to Toronto on Monday after a passenger claimed to have the coronavirus.(Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press)

Just two hours into a WestJet flight from Toronto to Montego Bay, Jamaica, passengers had their trips unexpectedly cut short on Monday after a passenger claimed he had the coronavirus.

At some point during Flight WS 2702 the man stood up, announced that he was recently in China and had contracted the disease, according to Peel Regional Police.

 

"That announcement was shared by the flight crew to the captain and a decision was made for the plane to return back to Pearson [International Airport]," said Const. Bancroft Wright.

Passenger Julie-Anne Broderick says she and her family were concerned. 

"We were just over Florida and all of a sudden we felt the plane do a pretty dramatic turn," Broderick told CBC News.

"We were flying in the opposite direction all of a sudden and it said our final destination was back in Toronto. So we were very confused and worried."

 

She says she saw the man taking a selfie and telling passengers around him that he had the coronavirus. 

"The flight attendants came, gave him a mask and gloves and just told him that he had to move to the back of the plane" she said. 

WestJet said in a statement the crew followed all protocols for infectious disease on board, including sequestering the man.

The captain informed passengers that, because of the incident, they couldn't land in Jamaica or the U.S. and had to return to Toronto.

The captain said he believed it was a hoax, according to Broderick. 

"I guess this guy thought it was a funny joke but it's just really weird. We were all very frustrated, to just place 240 people...it's just so selfish. We've lost a day of our vacation," says Broderick.

The plane landed around 2:10 p.m. ET and the man, a 29-year-old from nearby Thornhill, was arrested and charged with mischief. 

He is scheduled to appear in court on March 9.

WestJet apologized to the 243 passengers. 

Two flights were cancelled due to the incident. WestJet said it would add an extra flight on Tuesday, both to and from Montego Bay, for those affected.

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/coronavirus-plane-1.5450824

 

Edited by dagger

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“So your meal choices are something called Wuhan Chicken, Beef Wuhan or Pork Wu. What’s it gonna be?” 

2276A4D7-82DD-4E08-B6B8-6CAE73B10816.jpeg

Edited by blues deville
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7 hours ago, dagger said:

 

The plane landed around 2:10 p.m. ET and the man, a 29-year-old from nearby Thornhill, was arrested and charged with mischief. 

He is scheduled to appear in court on March 9.

 

 

Wonder why his name wasn't included in the article?  A guy like this deserves to reap the rewards of his actions.

One time I was staying at a hotel when the fire alarm went off at 4:00AM.  While normally inclined to assume it to be false, after 15 minutes of continuous siren I decided to go down the stairs and outside.  The fire dept showed up but the alarm continued.  Eventually we found out that the alarm couldn't be silenced because the night manager forgot his key to the alarm system and the day manager was an hour away.  Quite frustrating for the assembled hotel guests.  At this point one guy in the crowd pipes up to say that he pulled the alarm as a joke and that he was sorry for causing all the problems.  Shortly afterwards the police had to be called - turns out that  many of the guests felt quite aggrieved over having their nights' sleep ruined due to a joke.

Edited by seeker

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If I were king.....publish a photo of the perp , 5 years in jail and, banned from flying in any, and all, Canadian based airlines  until  he refunds all costs incurred by Westjet.

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