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Sorry Albertans, stuff your fossil fuel


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If you still believe that there are shortages that are causing the price increases in energy,,,

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-04/u-s-lng-exports-top-rivals-for-first-time-on-shale-revolution

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-crude-output-fall-less-2021-than-previously-forecast-eia-2021-08-10/

Oil prices have rebounded from the historic lows seen last year, prompting some U.S. producers to boost drilling activity. The total U.S. rig count has more than doubled since falling to a record low in August last year.

Edited by deicer
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47 minutes ago, deicer said:

If you still believe that there are shortages that are causing the price increases in energy,,,

It's easy.

Embrace the fact that you won’t escape price increases, the only question is are you willing to pay? Just say yes, tell me that you know it will cost more but it’s important; that it’s so important you’re willing to pay for it. It’s that easy.

Take it a step further; when we’re talking about emissions, tell me what it is you are willing to cut in order to hit those (pie in the sky) targets. In other words, what are you (we and us) willing to do without for the common good… it’s that easy. That's how you get me on side, I’ll help you do it.

Keep blowing smoke up my butt and I won’t… that’s easy too.

Don’t even bother responding until you are ready to say: “yes, I’m willing to pay for it.” It will simply be a waste of precious bandwidth.

Easy eh?

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7 hours ago, deicer said:

It isn't about willingness to pay.  We all have to pay.

It's about acknowledging why you have to pay and are you condoning the political stripe that puts profit above all else?

And we all know the solution. Socialism. Worked so well in so many countries. 

However, I'm sure you can figure out a way to get more energy produced for little profit. Or vaccines, or food, etc.

The sad thing is, each generation has to learn the hard way.

Maybe if you decided to not profit any more from your work, give up your job and work full time as a volunteer, you would have credibility that you truly believe your statement. A job is a profit center. You do it for money. You could ratchet down your lifestyle and live like Ghandi. Not likely. You want profit and you want someone else's profit.

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woxof said:

And we all know the solution. Socialism.

It is so amusing that when you have no answer, and you don't look at the facts, you go to the easiest excuse that the conspiracy theory right wing always throws out.

It isn't about profit, it's about how much profit.

As was posted earlier, the tax increase on energy is miniscule compared to the outrageous increase in refining margins that energy companies have foisted upon us.  That and they don't want to sell to you because they can put it on a boat and send it elsewhere for even more profit.

So keep taking the intellectual easy way out.  And when it comes to paying, don't complain about the system you support.

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50 minutes ago, deicer said:

woxof said:

And we all know the solution. Socialism.

It is so amusing that when you have no answer, and you don't look at the facts, you go to the easiest excuse that the conspiracy theory right wing always throws out.

It isn't about profit, it's about how much profit.

 

So sets the bar for what is an acceptable profit vs too much profits? Would the same group also establish what is an acceptable salary renumeration vs being overpaid?

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IMHO neither socialism or capitalism is the problem. What we need is for our leaders to be servants of the people instead of being served by the people. Western leaders have made a mockery of democracy. Our elections are about those who want to be in power, not because they want to make things better, but simply because they want to be in power and to have all the rewards that go with it. 

Our elections have become about the best tactical approach as opposed to being about ideas. Our populations feel powerless and distant from those that lead.  We are completely prepared as a people to completely disregard the integrity of our leaders, and I'd suggest that is largely because we don't expect them to have much of it in the first place.

Rant over. 😪

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9 minutes ago, deicer said:

Can you please explain why the price is going up?

Wouldn't it be nice if we could attribute things to a single cause... like a carbon tax.

If you have a bunch of retirements in the tanker division (trucking stuff), you flood the economy with cheap money, you trash supply lines and you implement mandates at the worst possible time, etc etc, soldier 101 suggests prices will rise.

It's always different, people will always say "this is different." I may not be able to draw the flow charts but I can assert from painful experience that yes, while this is different, it has the same smell of decay that causes me to put Mandarin cologne on my moustache.

At a distance, based only on the smell, deer, bear and a host of other critters are indistinguishable (to me) after a short period in the sun. 

Always different... always the same.

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21 minutes ago, Wolfhunter said:

Wouldn't it be nice if we could attribute things to a single cause... like a carbon tax.

If you have a bunch of retirements in the tanker division (trucking stuff), you flood the economy with cheap money, you trash supply lines and you implement mandates at the worst possible time, etc etc, soldier 101 suggests prices will rise.

It's always different, people will always say "this is different." I may not be able to draw the flow charts but I can assert from painful experience that yes, while this is different, it has the same smell of decay that causes me to put Mandarin cologne on my moustache.

At a distance, based only on the smell, deer, bear and a host of other critters are indistinguishable (to me) after a short period in the sun. 

Always different... always the same.

Yet you always put blame at the feet of the liberal government.

So what would a simple explanation be rather that metaphorical riddles?

 

quote-capitalism-is-the-astounding-belief-that-the-most-wickedest-of-men-will-do-the-most-john-maynard-keynes-15-71-56.jpg

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1 hour ago, deicer said:

So what would a simple explanation be rather that metaphorical riddles?

 

Are premature driver retirements, nursing shortages, police shortages / recruiting debacles, rampant illegal immigration, a cheap money tsunami, vaccine mandates, parole reform, felony theft limit changes, chip shortages, supply line stresses, etc. metaphorical riddles or do they stem directly from policy initiatives? Do any or all of those factors have even a slightest effect on our current situation? 

There is no riddle.... it couldn't be more linear. Start by stopping... means don't make it worse. Not making things worse would be a huge step in the right direction and offers the simplicity you crave. If you support firing nurses during a nursing shortage that's occurring during an ongoing pandemic then this is that. If you really think that Ivermectin etc is for wormy and emotionally distresses horses, this is that.

Stop it.

I'm a political agnostic. Answer my questions, put forward a workable plan and see it supported. Or, stay the course and enjoy the show. The options are limited and becoming more so by the day.

Doing the worst possible thing at the worst possible time isn't a political issue, it's a stupidity issue. 

And the best advice I can offer is always remember to sign in.

Edited by Wolfhunter
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Most of the things that you describe as causal are global in nature because of the pandemic.  So how do you change that?

As for putting together a plan, Trudeau has done that.  As leader of the country, he has provided the provinces with the resources, ie money, vaccines, equipment, even sending in the military, that is needed to fight the pandemic.  And yes, I will acknowledge that costs money.  (However, the increasing employment and production of the recovery will cover a lot of that).  Every country on the planet is experiencing the same thing.

Where you fail to place the blame is on the provincial governments who are actually in charge of the plans to manage the pandemic and related costs.  So look to the ones that are doing the worse to see the leadership that is failing.  I did a good summation of my province in another thread.

So I will agree with you in that being a political agnostic that you should demand a workable plan and see it supported.

Also with that, you should acknowledge where the failings are.

Edited by deicer
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Here's another one of those metaphorical riddles that might be slowing things down. 

Then again, when you're already down 18,000 what's another 16,000 eh? 

It's a riddle to be sure:

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/trudeau-resists-pressure-to-reverse-vaccine-mandate-for-all-truckers-entering-from-u-s

LOL, how do you change it indeed?

Well, I say stop doing the worst possible thing at the worst possible time. That seems like a good place to start. Until you're willing to commit to stop making things worse you can't fix anything.

Edited by Wolfhunter
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If you enjoy metaphorical riddles, there's more on the way.  

https://www.foxnews.com/media/bareshelvesbiden-twitter-shoppers-desolate-grocery-store-aisles

What started as shortages caused by backlogs at container piers and downstream distribution challenges will soon hit local markets (means local produce and the local distribution of it). 

I still can't draw you a flow chart but the outcome is aways the same, and so are the MBA crew arguments to the contrary. They will say it isn't so even when white sacks of food aid that bear a label of "not to be sold or exchanged" are being openly sold in the market.

Instead of hastily removing artificial impediments (like right f*&%$#@ now), there seems to be an appetite for more of them.   

Failure flies on swift wings.

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On 1/8/2022 at 4:11 PM, deicer said:

Junior said......

And we all know the solution. Socialism.

It is so amusing that when you have no answer, and you don't look at the facts, you go to the easiest excuse that the conspiracy theory right wing always throws out.

It isn't about profit, it's about how much profit.

As was posted earlier, the tax increase on energy is miniscule compared to the outrageous increase in refining margins that energy companies have foisted upon us.  That and they don't want to sell to you because they can put it on a boat and send it elsewhere for even more profit.

 

It always amazes me how people never learn a lesson. The same old tired stories about corporations like the oil companies making too much money. Here are the last group of people that bought into this fraud:

How Venezuela Ruined Its Oil Industry

But how can it be that the country with the world's largest proved oil reserves can't afford to feed its people? The current crisis can be traced to the historical management of the country's oil industry.

Wasted Potential

Look at the evolution of Venezuela's oil reserves and production since 1980:

Venezuelan oil production versus proved reserves

Venezuelan oil production versus proved reserves

 ROBERT RAPIER

Venezuela's highest-ever oil production occurred in 1998 at 3.5 million barrels per day (BPD). That also happened to be the year that Hugo Chávez was elected president of Venezuela. During the Venezuelan general strike of 2002–2003, Chávez fired 19,000 employees of the state oil company Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA) and replaced them with employees loyal to his government.

This eliminated a tremendous amount of experience from Venezuela's oil industry. Most of Venezuela's proved oil reserves consists of extra-heavy crude oil in the Orinoco Belt. The Orinoco contains an estimated 1.2 trillion barrels of oil resource. This oil is expensive to produce, but after oil prices climbed to $100/bbl, 235 billion barrels of this heavy oil were moved into the "proved reserves" category. This positioned Venezuela ahead of Saudi Arabia as the country with the world's largest proved oil reserves.

Because this oil is particularly challenging to produce, Venezuela invited international oil companies into the country to participate in the development of these reserves. Companies like ExxonMobil, BP, Chevron, Total and ConocoPhillips invested billions of dollars in technology and infrastructure to turn the extra-heavy oil into crude oil exports. 

What most people do not understand about the oil industry is that it is extremely capital intensive. When oil prices rise, oil companies may indeed reap billions of dollars in profits. But reaping that reward required billions of dollars in capital investments, and if oil prices decline it can quickly turn into billions of dollars of losses. This is the key to understanding what has gone wrong in Venezuela.

The Government Gets Greedy

In 2007 oil prices were on the rise, and the Chávez government sought more revenue as the investments made by the international oil companies began to pay off. Venezuela demanded changes to the agreements made by the international oil companies that would give PDVSA majority control of the projects. Total, Chevron, Statoil and BP agreed and retained minority interests in their Venezuelan projects. ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips refused, and as a result, their assets were expropriated. (A World Bank arbitration panel has ruled against Venezuela in both expropriation cases, but the country continues to appeal the decisions).

So there are primarily two related causes that have resulted in the steep decline of Venezuela's oil production, despite the sharp increase in the country's proved reserves. The first is the removal of expertise required to develop the country's heavy oil. This started with the firing of PDVSA employees in 2003 and continued with pushing international expertise out of the country in 2007.

Second, the Chávez government failed to appreciate the level of capital expenditures required to continue developing the country's oil. This was in no small part due to inexperience among the Chávez loyalists that were now running PDVSA, but it may not have mattered in any case. When oil prices were high, Chávez saw billions of dollars that could be siphoned to fund the country's social programs, and that's exactly what he did. But he failed to reinvest adequately in this capital-intensive industry.

I explicitly warned about this in an article I wrote in 2007:

So, can Chávez under-invest in the industry while diverting money to his pet causes? He can for a while, but you can see the results. Despite having enormous oil reserves, he and his cronies are running Venezuela’s oil industry right into the ground. His generosity to the poor has only been possible because he had a goose that laid golden eggs because they constantly reinvested money back into the business. Once he kills the goose, where is he going to get the money to continue his programs?

That warning was prescient. Following the firing of the PDVSA employees in 2003, there was an initial steep decline in the country's oil production below 3 million BPD. Then Venezuela's oil production recovered back to the 3.3 million BPD level from 2004 to 2006. But since 2007 oil production there has been on a steep decline, despite oil prices that were regularly above $100/bbl. In 2015 Venezuela's oil production had fallen to 2.6 million BPD, a decrease of more than 20% below 2006 levels. By comparison, the U.S. has oil reserves of less than 20% of Venezuela's, yet U.S. oil production rose by 86% from 2006 to 2015.

Note I am certainly not arguing against a country using its oil reserves to benefit its citizens. But Norway provides a case in point of how this can be done responsibly. The problem with Venezuela's approach was that it extracted too much from the industry, which sacrificed its ability to continue to grow its production.

Conclusions

Events in Venezuela continue to unfold, but it's hard to imagine that the oil industry there can recover without significant reinvestment. Venezuela is one of the OPEC members that has pushed the hardest for production cuts in recent years, as it desperately needs higher oil prices not only to fund further oil industry development but to use those revenues to pay for basic needs of the Venezuelan people.

Venezuela remains one of the world's ten largest oil producers, but its position has slipped in recent years. Should the situation there continue to deteriorate, it will likely further negatively impact the country's oil production. Ironically, because of Venezuela's global importance as an oil exporter, further deterioration there could push world oil prices higher -- but that's a scenario the current Maduro government is desperately seeking to avoid.

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So yes de-icer, we know you want some of that money without earning it. So did all the same types in Venezuela that demonized the oil companies and their executives and their shareholders getting dividends. And look at where it got them.

And you are the type that would have us follow in those footsteps.

You can call me Junior.

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woxof

The main cause of Venezuela's decline has nothing to do with socialism. 

You have to look to the same reasons the U.S. and Britain got in the bad books with Iran, Iraq, and pretty much every other country they now call an enemy.  

It's because of oil...

And Autocracy.

And Imperialism.

Greed, pure and simple.

Much as we see having taken root deeply in the U.S. today.  

And pretty much the reason you will see the U.S. go down the same path.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/08/08/fact-check-socialism-alone-did-not-destroy-venezuelas-economy/3323566001/

Edited to add:

https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5mj6j3t8

Edited by deicer
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On 1/9/2022 at 3:08 PM, deicer said:

even sending in the military, that is needed to fight the pandemic.  And yes, I will acknowledge that costs money.  (However, the increasing employment and production of the recovery will cover a lot of that). 

I always find these comments interesting because of the way the finances are disected.

CAlling in the Military does have a cost but not as high as the costs reported.

Those men and women are already being paid no matter what.  So long as they are employed by the military, they get a paycheck.  This means that cost is negated from the equation.

The actual cost is the transport and accommodation of the people and equipment which is far less than numbers reported.

Fully 50% of a domestic military deployment reported cost is Personnel pay. Money they would have received anyway.

numbers are fun 

 

 

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2 hours ago, deicer said:

Yes, you are correct.

However, you edited out the first part of the full sentence which would have given better context.

The point I was making is that I have seen the "Cost of sending in the military" in so many places accompanied by a whopping large number.  The point being that the number is always misrepresented.

As for your original post.  It matters not what he does and how it turns out.  Some people will always have an issue with it.  That also goes both ways.  You cannot make 100% of the people happy 100% of the time.

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I'm not a finance or admin guy to be sure but my understanding is that in Aid to Civil Power operations, the province requesting the aid is billed for the service.

Maybe a better way of putting it is that provinces can be billed but in general, I think the bills are usually waived if the service provided supports national objectives... likely the case here.

I'm pretty sure it wasn’t the case with Toronto’s snow emergency a few years ago though. I think Ontario, or maybe it was Toronto paid for that one. 

In any case, the assumptions being made here may reflect normal usage but they aren't a given. You might not have to actually pay, but that's because the cost was forgiven, not misrepresented.

 

Edited by Wolfhunter
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22 hours ago, deicer said:

The main cause of Venezuela's decline has nothing to do with socialism. 

You have to look to the same reasons the U.S. and Britain got in the bad books with Iran, Iraq, and pretty much every other country they now call an enemy.  

It's because of oil...

And Autocracy.

And Imperialism.

Greed, pure and simple.

Much as we see having taken root deeply in the U.S. today.  

And pretty much the reason you will see the U.S. go down the same path.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/08/08/fact-check-socialism-alone-did-not-destroy-venezuelas-economy/3323566001/

Edited to add:

https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5mj6j3t8

The main reason for Venezuela’s decline has everything to do with socialism. 
 

The socialists like you hated the businesses that made profits and no doubt the same kind of people as we hear on this board from person un-named said how terrible they were.

They chased them off and the foreign businesses went elsewhere.

It is happening to a lesser extent here.

Now the Venezuelans live in desperation.

 

 

 

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