737 Max Updates and Cancellations

[Guest]

If the aircraft is not released to fly before june/july, when is the first date that commercial carriers will start flying the aircraft?  A large number (387) will  have been mothballed for over a year by that time and I wonder how easy it will be to return those to operation?

1. Load / install any mods to the aircraft and to the simulators (I imagine this can not be done until such time as the various licencing authorities have blessed the changes

2. Make the aircraft flight ready

3. Sim training for pilots (how long)

4. Refresher training for AMEs (is this required?)

[conehead]

2 hours ago, Marshall said:

 

4. Refresher training for AMEs (is this required?)

No..... ?

[Seeker]

On 1/20/2020 at 1:57 PM, deicer said:

“We’ve asked Boeing to get rid of that word Max,” Udvar-Hazy said. “I think that word Max should go down in the history books as a bad name for an aircraft.”

Renaming the Max will help address public reluctance to fly on the plane

Awesome.  Help address public reluctance to fly on the airplane by hiding the fact that they're on the airplane they are trying to avoid.  Wow.  Can't see any problem with that! 

This is the most idiotic idea ever.  Can you imagine the fallout from the public learning, as they are sure to, that the company that deceived the FAA, all the 737 pilots and the entire world with the development/certification of the aircraft is now trying to hide the true identity of the aircraft by changing the name?

[conehead]

I’ll betcha they do it though... and they’ll call it “re-branding” the aircraft.

[Innuendo]

and they’ll call it “re-branding” the aircraft.

Isn't that what Trump suggested some time ago?

If I recall it was something like, "Re-brand it and include some great new features"

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/15/trump-boeing-737-max-1274719

Not sure what "Great new features" could be though, but I'm sure he could come up with something.

[Guest]

Just now, Innuendo said:

and they’ll call it “re-branding” the aircraft.

Isn't that what Trump suggested some time ago?

If I recall it was something like, "Re-brand it and include some great new features"

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/15/trump-boeing-737-max-1274719

Not sure what "Great new features" could be though, but I'm sure he could come up with something.

Free drinks, no charge for luggage and free food service.  There would be lots of bargain hunters that would purchase seats.

[AIP]

2 hours ago, seeker said:

Awesome.  Help address public reluctance to fly on the airplane by hiding the fact that they're on the airplane they are trying to avoid.  Wow.  Can't see any problem with that! 

This is the most idiotic idea ever.  Can you imagine the fallout from the public learning, as they are sure to, that the company that deceived the FAA, all the 737 pilots and the entire world with the development/certification of the aircraft is now trying to hide the true identity of the aircraft by changing the name?

WJ has already removed the word "MAX" from their aircraft.

Was done very quietly and quite some time ago.

[Innuendo]

Quote

Free drinks, no charge for luggage and free food service.  There would be lots of bargain hunters that would purchase seats.

 

I was thinking more of Casino, stand up bar, (sorry, Continental already did that on their DC-10s), dance floor, (didn't someone already do that in the upper deck of the 747), putting green,

ya know "great new features." 

Edited January 22, 2020 by Innuendo

[conehead]

14 minutes ago, Marshall said:

Free drinks, no charge for luggage and free food service.  There would be lots of bargain hunters that would purchase seats.

That’s all it would take to fill those planes...

[FA@AC]

16 minutes ago, AIP said:

WJ has already removed the word "MAX" from their aircraft.

AC no longer uses the word "MAX" in the FA manual.  It's now the 737-8, although the AC website still calls it the MAX 8 in the schedules that are loaded (and soon to be removed, I guess) for this summer.

[moeman]

5 hours ago, Innuendo said:

dance floor, (didn't someone already do that in the upper deck of the 747)

I believe AC used to have a "piano bar" area upstairs and the FAs bid for the position where you'd dance with customers. Before my time, but that's what I heard.

 

[Guest]

7 hours ago, moeman said:

I believe AC used to have a "piano bar" area upstairs and the FAs bid for the position where you'd dance with customers. Before my time, but that's what I heard.

 

CP had a bar setup for first class passengers on the upper deck of their 747 with a spiral staircase to move from the main deck .  

[Don Hudson]

I am placing this note here as well as the thread on the Turkish B738 crash at Amsterdam for those interested. TOC is listed below.

Sidney Dekker, Human Factors Specialist, who has spoken at Canadian flight safety conferences before, did a human factors examination on the Turkish B738 Amsterdam accident and the Dutch Safety Board has decided to publish this report. It can be found at https://www.barracuda.com/products/essentials

Don

SUMMARY
CONSIDERATIONS FOR A HUMAN FACTORS ANALYSIS
 A word on hindsight  
 The scope of this human factors analysis
 A word on time
A SEQUENCE OF EVENTS
TK1951: AN AUTOMATION SURPRISE
 TK1951 and research on automation surprises
AUTOMATION TRAINING AND BUGGY MENTAL MODELS
 Autothrottle in the airplane manuals
 Alerts and indications associated with RA failure  
 Comparison with other TRTO
 Experience on aircraft type and buggy mental models
SPEED, MODE MONITORING AND THE NOTICING OF A NON-EVENT
 How to see that something doesn’t happen
 Not noticing a mode change
 Automation surprises and representations of the future
 “Moving thrust levers” that didn’t move and other cues
 Workload and interleaving task demands  
 Speed tapes: How a cockpit knows its speed
CRM AND THE INTERVENTION DECISION
 The flight crew of TK1951  Training
 (CRM) at THY TK1951: A breakdown in CRM?
 Was TK1951 a rushed approach?
 Why not make a go-around?

Edited January 22, 2020 by Don Hudson
Insert Report table of contents

[Guest]

United Airlines on Wednesday said it does not expect that it will be able to fly the Boeing 737 Max this summer after the manufacturer pushed back its timeline for the planes’ return to service.

The repeated delays mean airlines are set to go another summer — the peak travel season for U.S. carriers — without the fuel-efficient planes.

 

United had already pushed back when it expects the planes to return to service until early June, but United president Scott Kirby, who is taking over as CEO later this year, said on an earnings call that the airline is working on another schedule change.

This is breaking news. Check back for updates.  https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/22/united-airlines-doesnt-expect-to-fly-the-boeing-737-max-this-summer.html

[Specs]

FWIW, (from CTV)

......Air Canada said Wednesday that scrubbing the Max from its schedule for the second time in three weeks was based on operational considerations and meant to provide customers with certainty around planning and booking travel.

Earlier this month the Montreal-based airline opted to push back the return of the aircraft until March 31, with the new re-entry date pegged at June 30.

WestJet announced Tuesday that it will remove the plane from its flight schedule until June 24.

"We thank our guests for their patience and our WestJetters for their commitment to keeping our airline moving safely and on time as we continue to adjust our schedule," said WestJet chief executive Ed Sims in a statement.

[boestar]

why do they make it sound like the airlines fault?  They have no control over placing it back into service.

When the Regulators and Boeing drop the puck, you can bet it won't be long before they are in the air.

 

[Guest]

Boeing wants to resume 737 Max production months before the planes return to service

PUBLISHED WED, JAN 22 20201:26 PM ESTUPDATED MOMENTS AGO

 

Leslie Josephs@LESLIEJOSEPHS

KEY POINTS

• Boeing suspended production of the 737 Max this month as their grounding goes on longer than expected.
• Boeing has pushed back when it expects regulators to clear the planes to fly again by months, to mid-2020.

 

Dave Calhoun, Chairman of Boeing.

Adam Jeffery | CNBC

Boeing’s new CEO, Dave Calhoun, said Wednesday that he wants the company to resume production of the 737 Max months before regulators sign off on the planes and airlines prepare to return them to service.

Boeing suspended production of the planes this month because a worldwide grounding of the jetliners after two fatal crashes lasted months longer than expected. Boeing shares fell more than 3% on Tuesday after the company pushed back its estimate of when regulators would sign off on the planes by months to the middle of 2020.

 

The 737 Max production shutdown has already cost thousands of jobs and raised concerns about the crisis’ impact on the broader economy.

But Calhoun’s comments indicate the company does not expect the production pause to last more than a few months.

“We got to get that line started up again,” he said on a conference call with reporters. “And the supply chain will be reinvigorated even before that.”

Boeing shares were down 1.6% in afternoon trading, bringing their weekly losses to nearly 5%.

The 737 Max crisis has rippled through Boeing’s supply chain, which includes General Electric and Spirit AeroSystems. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin earlier this month estimated that the issues stemming from the plane’s grounding could shave half a percentage point off U.S. economic growth this year.

 

Wichita, Kansas-based Spirit AeroSystems on Jan. 10 announced it would cut an initial 2,800 jobs because of the Max grounding.

Calhoun said Wednesday that Boeing is not planning to lay off or furlough any of its employees because of the production pause, even with Boeing’s new estimate that regulators will approve the planes again midyear.

Calhoun, a decadelong Boeing board member who took the helm of the manufacturer last week, is tasked with steadying the company, shaken by the 737 Max upheaval.

Internal emails that were recently made public revealed employees boasted about bullying regulators into accepting less time-consuming pilot training before officials allowed Boeing to deliver the planes to airlines. In other messages, Boeing employees expressed safety concerns about the plane. In the wide-ranging call with reporters, Calhoun said he intended to improve the company’s culture and lift employee morale.

A flight-control system Boeing included in the jets was implicated in the two Max crashes — a Lion Air flight in October 2018 and an Ethiopian Airlines flight less than five months later — which killed all 346 people on board. Boeing is now scrambling to get regulators to sign off on changes to that software and other fixes to the plane.

The Federal Aviation Administration has said several times that it doesn’t have a firm timeline to recertify the planes.

[conehead]

Where the heck are they going to put them??

[Guest]

42 minutes ago, conehead said:

Where the heck are they going to put them??

Maybe no where, this could just be posturing for the public............if not, is there a highway that running past the factory that they could rent? 

[boestar]

they could be used to create artificial coral reefs.  That would be a good use

 

[Maverick]

On 1/21/2020 at 7:29 PM, AIP said:

WJ has already removed the word "MAX" from their aircraft.

Was done very quietly and quite some time ago.

Wrong. 

[Guest]

U.S. airlines told Max jets could return to service before mid-year: sources

 

• Calgary Herald
• 25 Jan 2020
• DAVID SHEPARDSON

MARK RALSTON/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES FILES The U.S. aviation regulator says that it is “pleased with Boeing’s progress in recent weeks toward achieving key milestones” in the safety certification of 737 Max jets.

WASHINGTON Federal Aviation Administrator Steve Dickson has called senior U.S. airline officials Friday and told them that the agency could approve the grounded Boeing 737 Max’s return to service before mid-year, people briefed on the calls said Friday.

Dickson’s calls come days after Boeing said it was pushing back its timeline for approval of the plane’s return and “currently estimating that the ungrounding of the 737 Max will begin during mid-2020.”

A person briefed on one of Dickson’s calls with the airlines said he told officials the Boeing mid-year timeline is “very conservative.”

Boeing’s best-selling plane has been grounded since March after two fatal crashes killed 346 people.

Boeing’s stock erased losses on the news and was up two per cent.

The agency confirmed in a statement Friday that Dickson is making calls “to reiterate that the FAA has set no time frame for completion of certification work on the aircraft.”

The agency added it is “pleased with Boeing’s progress in recent weeks toward achieving key milestones.”

The FAA added that “safety is the top priority, and the FAA continues to work with other safety regulators to ensure that Boeing has addressed all known issues with the aircraft.”

FAA approval before mid-year could only happen if Boeing continues to make complete and thorough submissions, the official said, and emphasized that unforeseen issues could always potentially delay approval.

American Airlines Group Inc,

United Airlines Holdings Inc and Southwest Airlines Co have all pushed back the resumption of Max flights until early June. This week, United told investors it does not expect to fly the Boeing 737 Max this summer.

After Boeing revised its timeline this week, no U.S. carrier took any immediate action to extend flight cancellations. Airlines have said they will need at least 30 days after the FAA grants approval for pilot training, software updates and required maintenance.

Boeing chief executive Dave Calhoun told reporters this week the company could resume production in April. Calhoun said the mid-year timetable came after the plane maker endorsed a plan for pilots to do simulator training before they resume flying the Max.

[Guest]

The revenue loss numbers are interesting but the loss of net revenue is also interesting 

Airlines

Boeing 737 Max grounding costs Southwest $828m in 2019

By Pilar Wolfsteller23 January 2020

• Save article

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Southwest Airlines says that it lost almost a billion dollars in operating income due to the grounding of the Boeing 737 Max aircraft, as it joins other airlines in scrambling to find capacity and make up for the jet’s ongoing problems.

“I am confident about the Max, and our pilots are confident about the Max,” chief executive Gary Kelly tells analysts on the company’s earnings call on 23 January. “The timing remains uncertain, and we are working through all that right now.”

Source: Southwest Airlines

Southwest 737 Max

Kelly says that 2019 full-year operating profit was $828 million – or 28% - lower than had the Max been flying in the airline’s all-737 fleet. “The grounding of 75 of our airplanes, or about ten percent of our fleet, presents a crisis-like challenge for our team.”

The Dallas-based carrier’s net profit in the full year 2019 fell to $2.3 billion from $2.4 billion in 2018. In the final quarter of 2019, net profit hit $514 million, down 21% from $654 million in the same quarter a year ago. Full-year revenues rose to $22.4 billion from $21.9 billion, up 2.1%. In the fourth quarter alone, Southwest had revenue of $5.7 billion, flat from the year-ago quarter.

The airline has taken the aircraft out of its schedule until 6 June, but will likely have to extend that as more information becomes available, executives say. In order to reduce some of the fleet deficit created by the lack of the newer generation, lower-fuel burn 737 Max aircraft, the airline is planning on postponing 7 of 18 retirements of older 737-700 aircraft this year. These will fly 2 more years, chief financial officer Tammy Romo says.

“We are also monitoring the used 737 aircraft market because seat growth is not keeping up with demand and we are losing share,” Kelly says. “We plan to aggressively recapture that once the Max is ungrounded.”

Currently, Southwest is not looking to lease additional aircraft, he adds. “Everything is predicated on our assumption that this is a short-lived issue, and not something that we will have to deal with for years.”

Southwest currently has 34 Max aircraft in its fleet, all of which are in storage in Victorville, California. It had had expected to have about 75 Max in the fleet at the end of 2019, and another 38 deliveries of the aircraft in 2020. At the moment, all of these plans are on hold. 

The airline has settled with Boeing for an undisclosed amount for the 2019 losses, but hopes to come to another agreement for 2020. Kelly says he is “pleased” with the confidential compensation agreement Southwest and Boeing have signed for last year’s losses, and the airline is continuing discussions with the plane-maker.

“There were years when we had a dozen problems to solve. Right now we have one problem, and it’s a serious one,” Kelly says. “Dogpaddling for a year has cost us customers. It’s not anything we can mitigate until we get airplanes and can grow again. Do I think we’ve been harmed? Absolutely. Everyone knows we will seek further compensation from Boeing,” he adds.

Chief operations officer Mike Van de Ven says that the airline’s 34 stored Max will have to go through some maintenance work before they are once again ready to go into revenue service. 27 further aircraft have been built and are being stored at Boeing facilities.

“So these 61 aircraft are our most reliable source of lift this year,” Van de Ven says. “We can manage around 5-10 aircraft a week to be reintroduced to the operation.” That said, these estimates may change as the airline assesses what will be required to get the aircraft back into service.

Manual updates, pilot training and maintenance needs of the jets may require more time than currently expected and from the time that the aircraft is re-certificated, “that will add at least a couple of months to the time to get the aircraft operating.”

While the requirements for pilot and training are not yet clear, Van de Ven says the airline currently has three Max simulators, it is awaiting three more before the end of the summer, and another three by the end of the year. Assuming a 2-hour simulator training session for each pilot, that capacity will allow all of Southwest’s pilots to complete the training prerequisites within a few months.

“The FAA is in control of the ungrounding process. Our plans are from that date,” Van de Ven says.

HAWAII FLIGHTS

One bright spot for the company i n2019 was its ambitious and aggressive foray into the US mainland-to-Hawaii market, which it launched last March. It currently offers 28 flights between four cities in California – San Jose, San Diego, Sacramento and Oakland – and several islands in the Pacific archipelago. In addition, it has opened an extensive interisland network as a direct challenge to Hawaiian Airlines’ domination of the region.

“Those routes are doing phenomenally and succeeding in every dimension,” the airline’s president Tom Nealon says, adding though that the ramp up has been slower than expected because of the Max and capacity bottlenecks. “These flights are creating demand that we didn’t see was there. We are now seeing more connecting itineraries on the west coast, and fares are lower. That is the classic Southwest effect.”

While Hawaii service is still just two percent of the airline’s overall revenue, customer ratings of the service is higher than on most other routes, he says. 

On Thursday, The Wall Street Journal reported that the FAA may have given Southwest preferential treatment when it authorized the carrier’s Hawaii routes a year ago. The report says that a whistleblower alleged that FAA managers engaged in “gross mismanagement and abuse of authority” for “the financial benefit of the airline,” according to a report from the Office of Special Counsel.

“We don’t know what that’s about,” chief executive Kelly says on Thursday. “This is a whistleblower complaint, we don’t know what the complaint is or who the whistleblower is. It certainly doesn’t feel like we got preferential treatment, though.” Executives say the airline went through a rigorous 14-month approval process before it began operating the flights.

“It’s all a surprise to us and if there are issues, we don’t know what it’s about,” Van de Ven added.

The FAA said earlier today that it is investigating the matter.

[mrlupin]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boeing-results/boeing-737-max-charges-to-top-18-billion-idUSKBN1ZS1L9

Boeing posts surprise loss, 737 MAX costs climb to $19 billion

(Reuters) - Boeing Co expects nearly $19 billion in costs related to the grounding of its 737 MAX jets, the U.S. planemaker said on Wednesday while posting a surprise loss and indicating it would cut production of its bigger 787 Dreamliner aircraft.

The grounding, which followed two fatal crashes, forced the planemaker to freeze production of the 737 for the first time in more than 20 years and led to the ouster of Chief Executive Officer Dennis Muilenburg.

“We recognize we have a lot of work to do,” Boeing President and CEO David Calhoun said in a statement.

 

Adding to Boeing’s pain, demand for its bigger and more profitable jet - the 787 Dreamliner - has waned in the face of the U.S.-China trade war, prompting the company to cut production, hurting cash flow at a time when its debt is mounting.

Boeing, which is producing the 787 Dreamliner at 14 aircraft per month, said in October it expects to lower the production in late 2020 to 12 per month, amid a drought of orders from China.

The company now expects to further lower 787 Dreamliner production to 10 per month in early 2021.

 

The company reported negative free cash flow of $2.67 billion for the fourth quarter ended Dec. 31, compared with a positive free cash flow of $2.45 billion a year earlier.

Core operating loss was $2.53 billion, or $2.33 per share, compared with a profit of $3.87 billion, or $5.48 per share, a year earlier.

Analysts on average expected Boeing to post earnings per share of $1.47 in the quarter.

[Maverick]

• I'm thinking this airplane is now dying a slow death...

   

  Boeing 737 MAX Production Increases Could be a Whisper, Not a Roar

  Michael Bruno February 05, 2020
  
  Credit: Jason Redmond/Getty Images
  Boeing’s Jan. 29 teleconference will be remembered as one of the most humbling earnings reports in the 103-year-old company’s history, but for 737 MAX suppliers it will also set the tone for the next two or three years.

  “Slowly” was the buzzword repeated often by Boeing leadership, especially when it came to the narrowbody’s monthly production rate ramp-up—assuming the MAX is set to become “ungrounded” and production resumes after halting this month. Boeing CEO David Calhoun and Chief Financial Officer Greg Smith said during the call that production flow will return “one step at a time,” even “one airplane at a time.”

  Boeing still has not forecast production plans beyond stating it can restart manufacturing months before the MAX is returned to service. But already major suppliers, analysts and consultants are piecing together a road map that foresees MAX monthly unit production rates hitting the mid-20s this year, the 30s most of next year and possibly back to 52—where it stood before the MAX crisis—by the end of 2022.

  “Probably the most distressing aspect of the line shutdown was the relative lack of guidance provided to suppliers,” Teal Group analyst Richard Aboulafia said Jan. 23. “Rate 52—if we get that in late 2022, I’d be super happy.”

  Considering that Boeing has indicated a new public marker of a midyear MAX return to service that seemingly is backed by the FAA, the supply chain is expecting Boeing’s own production to restart in March or April. “We’ve assumed roughly a 90-day production delay, which is consistent with direction that we’ve received from Boeing,” says United Technologies Corp. (UTC) Chairman and CEO Greg Hayes.

  More anecdotal evidence came Jan. 30 from aerostructures leader Spirit AeroSystems, when managers there announced a new agreement with Boeing over MAX production. “Under the agreement, Spirit will restart production slowly, ramping up deliveries throughout the year to reach a total of 216 MAX shipsets delivered to Boeing in 2020,” the Wichita supplier said. “Spirit does not expect to achieve a production rate of 52 shipsets per month until late 2022.”

  In turn, that would imply an average production rate of 24 per month in 2020, according to financial analysts Sheila Kahyaoglu and Greg Konrad at Jefferies, who note that Spirit already counts about 95 737 units parked in or near its factory.

  Other suppliers are making similar noises. Hayes of UTC, home to Collins Aerospace and Pratt & Whitney, says managers assume an average production rate of 21 per month in the second half of the year for Collins. General Electric executives say their Leap engine production has not stopped, but the rate this year will fall to roughly half what it was in 2019, also indicating a rate of 21.

  This is all a world apart from the five-a-month jumps Boeing and suppliers originally envisioned shortly after MAX production was cut to 42 a month last April. Based on what they heard at Aviation Week’s MRO Americas 2019 conference, Leeham News and Analysis reported at the time that MAX-makers had eyed a rate increase to 47 in June, 52 by August and finally 57 by last September. Of course, rate 57 is where Boeing and suppliers were poised to go to before the MAX crisis erupted.

  Now it is a “creep, crawl, walk, jog, and then run approach,” as industry consultant Jim McAleese puts it. Among the consequences, the first year of “normal” MAX production will be 2023, also when Boeing might get up to rate 57.

  In turn, Boeing and its suppliers have to adjust their earnings expectations to account for both the lack of previously planned deliveries as well as new costs, since they were positioned for rate 57 by last summer. For its part, Boeing added $9.2 billion to its summary of MAX-related financial charges as part of its latest earnings report, bringing the total to $18.6 billion so far.

  Cost estimates from the supply chain are trickling in, and they range from mild to eye-popping. Hayes says the production pause is projected to cost UTC just $100 million per month in sales. “We do not anticipate any layoffs,” he adds. “I think that would be the easiest thing to do, but quite frankly, given the scarcity of talented aerospace workers out there, we’re not going to be laying anybody off for a 90-day delay here. I think we’re going to work on the backlog.”

  But Spirit has already announced layoffs of at least 2,800 workers in Wichita. Increasingly, smaller suppliers are warning Wall Street of bad news, too. British aerostructures provider Senior said Jan. 31 its aerospace revenue this year could drop 20% compared with last year, due to the MAX production halt. Senior’s operating margins will slip as well, and according to media reports the company is saying the recently announced sale of its aerostructures business might have to be shelved until more MAX certainty emerges.

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