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21 minutes ago, FA@AC said:

Huh?  Things are nowhere near under control in the Western Hemisphere other than in Canada and several Caribbean nations.  Mexico, Brazil and Bolivia are being particularly hard hit.

Israel is a mess, as are India, South Africa and Iran.  Some countries in Europe are believed to be at the beginning of a second wave.

I do agree that Canadian quarantine requirements should be modified.

Admittedly, it's been awhile since I looked at any covid numbers, last time most places had flattened or declining. Looking at it now, and yeah, still a mess in a lot of places.  I guess what I should be alluding to is similar to the European approach, in allowing unrestricted travel to safe(r) countries.

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4 minutes ago, 330Heavy said:

I guess what I should be alluding to is similar to the European approach, in allowing unrestricted travel to safe(r) countries.

That's what AC is lobbying for.  The execs who spoke at the online town hall this morning gave no indication that our government was inclined to move in that direction at the moment, unfortunately.

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On 7/31/2020 at 8:40 PM, FA@AC said:

That's what AC is lobbying for.  The execs who spoke at the online town hall this morning gave no indication that our government was inclined to move in that direction at the moment, unfortunately.

I'm not sure it's a good idea myself because I have little faith in the premiers of three of our four largest provinces making the rapid adjustments necessary. Look at Australia for how to react to a spike The state of Victoria has just moved into a lockdown far more severe than what we experienced in Quebec, Ontario and Alberta where it's more important to open bars than schools. And enforcement in Australia is severe enough to cause those people who want to throw huge parties that ignore all the rules to think twice. I'm also not confident the Europeans can hold the dike much longer. And the US is a total sh-show and getting worse.

https://twitter.com/meridithmcgraw/status/1289911092001611777

If I were the feds, I'd bite there bullet now - offer the airlines interest free loans to pay off all of the vouchers (that assuages the public) and offer the airlines a rebate of excise fuel taxes in exchange for part of the soon to be massive tax loss carry forwards. That would do two things - future bookings would be entirely in cash , because the voucher overhang is eliminated, and the airline will be paying income tax sooner because of the excise tax rebate, but they only pay, of course, when profitable. The excise tax rebate swap was used decades ago - I think we have to go back 30 years or so - maybe Fido has a recollection of how that worked. I believe the airlines had the opportunity to repay the fuel tax and reclaim their tax loss carry forwards. 

My view is that governments screw up as soon as new case counts drop - people start bending or ignoring the rules, letting their guard down, and government don't clamp down to keep the virus in check - rather, they give in, opening things up more and more - bars, indoor dining - sending the wrong message and failing to enforced even the reopening guidelines they expect us to follow. Yes, it's not the way I'd do it. 

https://apnews.com/d175ea6f7cb41468cd19d5255908d3a7

Edited by dagger
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3 hours ago, dagger said:

I'm not sure it's a good idea myself because I have little faith in the premiers of three of our four largest provinces making the rapid adjustments necessary. Look at Australia for how to react to a spike The state of Victoria has just moved into a lockdown far more severe than what we experienced in Quebec, Ontario and Alberta where it's more important to open bars than schools. And enforcement in Australia is severe enough to cause those people who want to throw huge parties that ignore all the rules to think twice. I'm also not confident the Europeans can hold the dike much longer. And the US is a total sh-show and getting worse.

I think we're all happy to keep the curtain to the US closed for now.  The situation in Europe is certainly concerning, but I do wonder if there's an approach in between doing away with Covid-related border restrictions entirely as some EU nations have done and retaining a 14 day quarantine requirement for everyone regardless of travel history and health status.  Iceland has been testing arriving travellers at the airport and releasing them from quarantine when a negative test result is received.  I think that's the kind of approach the industry here is suggesting.

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3 hours ago, dagger said:

I'm not sure it's a good idea myself because I have little faith in the premiers of three of our four largest provinces making the rapid adjustments necessary. Look at Australia for how to react to a spike The state of Victoria has just moved into a lockdown far more severe than what we experienced in Quebec, Ontario and Alberta where it's more important to open bars than schools.

Curious though why you left BC out of your rant re bars?  B.C. and Alberta are reopening bars and restaurants very soon —  https://www.thestar.com/business/2020/05/11/some-provinces-will-soon-allow-restaurants-and-bars-to-reopen-but-some-business-owners-say-theyd-rather-wait.html

 

https://nowtoronto.com/news/coronavirus-which-provinces-reopening-canada

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It is reported that the highest rate of transmission is found in enclosed spaces where people both eat and drink....bars; restaurants; wedding venues etc. Once infected, of course, those individuals become potential carriers to others not engaging in such activities but insufficiently vigilant.

Commercial carriers are unfortunately driven ( understandably) by the search for revenue. No one is flying in AC "J" because the premium for the seat without service is too high. Solution? Resume service in  "J" and hope for the best. Bottom line, when that asymptomatic infected individual lowers his/her mask to sip on that glass of wine, the neighbouring pax doing the same is exposed.

 

How can that be a good thing?

If air travel is necessary intended to get from A to B safely and quickly....masks ALL the time at the very least and to hell with service. Lower the fares!

Dagger wouldn't rely on Premiers to do the " right thing". I wouldn't rely on almost any private commercial enterprise to do the " right thing".

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12 minutes ago, UpperDeck said:

 I wouldn't rely on almost any private commercial enterprise to do the " right thing".

Dito.

Letting the IATA and/or airline industry lead on this issue would be a conflict of interest. Commercial interests shouldn't trump science or the recommendations of the professionals counseling the government.

Cases are up again in Spain and France, in South America cases are exploding...

In the US, they even have a summer camp where 260 kids are infected (the group that seemed immune previously).

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-infected-260-children-and-staff-at-georgia-sleep-away-camp-cdc-says-1.5048666

 

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On 7/31/2020 at 8:40 PM, FA@AC said:

That's what AC is lobbying for.  The execs who spoke at the online town hall this morning gave no indication that our government was inclined to move in that direction at the moment, unfortunately.

Politically speaking, anything less than keeping up a full quarantine will bring the minority government down.   If it were a majority government I'm almost certain we be easing travel restrictions. 

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1 hour ago, Specs said:

Politically speaking, anything less than keeping up a full quarantine will bring the minority government down.   If it were a majority government I'm almost certain we be easing travel restrictions. 

Not sure that would bring the minority gov. down as long as they keep dishing out deficit cash.  There are not enough united voters in the airline industry to influence the other parties to vote against our present government. As far as the general public, putting off vacation flights is not exactly their major concern at this time. The only possible reason for a early election is the Liberals saying good by to Justin, and calling a snap election with the hope of hanging onto power because the opposition is so divided that there is no way that the Liberals would not gain a majority.  Of course I have been very wrong before.   And this time around, I surely hope I am. 😄

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On 8/2/2020 at 12:35 PM, dagger said:

I'm not sure it's a good idea myself because I have little faith in the premiers of three of our four largest provinces making the rapid adjustments necessary. Look at Australia for how to react to a spike The state of Victoria has just moved into a lockdown far more severe than what we experienced in Quebec, Ontario and Alberta where it's more important to open bars than schools. And enforcement in Australia is severe enough to cause those people who want to throw huge parties that ignore all the rules to think twice. I'm also not confident the Europeans can hold the dike much longer. And the US is a total sh-show and getting worse.

https://twitter.com/meridithmcgraw/status/1289911092001611777

If I were the feds, I'd bite there bullet now - offer the airlines interest free loans to pay off all of the vouchers (that assuages the public) and offer the airlines a rebate of excise fuel taxes in exchange for part of the soon to be massive tax loss carry forwards. That would do two things - future bookings would be entirely in cash , because the voucher overhang is eliminated, and the airline will be paying income tax sooner because of the excise tax rebate, but they only pay, of course, when profitable. The excise tax rebate swap was used decades ago - I think we have to go back 30 years or so - maybe Fido has a recollection of how that worked. I believe the airlines had the opportunity to repay the fuel tax and reclaim their tax loss carry forwards. 

My view is that governments screw up as soon as new case counts drop - people start bending or ignoring the rules, letting their guard down, and government don't clamp down to keep the virus in check - rather, they give in, opening things up more and more - bars, indoor dining - sending the wrong message and failing to enforced even the reopening guidelines they expect us to follow. Yes, it's not the way I'd do it. 

https://apnews.com/d175ea6f7cb41468cd19d5255908d3a7

If we had a crystal ball and it said we will be dealing with Covid for years.

Then what?

I don't think we have our heads wrapped around how long this will be.  That a vaccine for a cold virus has never been successful.  Even if we are successful the vaccines effectivity will likely be limited as Corona viruses mutate faster than the flu.  Much faster.

So how would we handle this if we knew it would be years?  That is what we should be doing.

 

Who warns of no silver Bullet.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-53643455

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There is no scenario for managing this situation that doesn’t lead to economic hardship. Opening things up causes massive strain on health care systems and as more people get sick, the desire to travel and intermingle with our fellow citizens will wane anyways. Maintaining a tighter rein on things keeps more people alive but still causes economic hardship.
 

If you were deciding, would you want to be considered responsible for more deaths, or fewer? Ask Trump how that’s going. Whether he’s truly responsible for it or not is irrelevant, the captain carries the can for the success or failure of the mission. He’s the Francesco Schettino of coronavirus leadership. 

Edited by J.O.

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1 hour ago, J.O. said:

There is no scenario for managing this situation that doesn’t lead to economic hardship. Opening things up causes massive strain on health care systems and as more people get sick, the desire to travel and intermingle with our fellow citizens will wane anyways. 

No one is suggesting we follow Trump.

This is the question I asked.  How would you handle this if you knew it would be years?
 

You pointed out one example.

The Health Care system is a choke point and a key problem.  If Health Care is over run the death toll jumps rapidly.  One of the WHO’s recommendations is increased resources for health care.  Planning is based on a historical percentage of the population that needs hospitalization at any given time.  That historical average is not going to serve us adequately during a Pandemic. If you create more room at the choke point, the death toll remains low even if more people get sick.  Of course this takes time and money.  But less money than a shutdown.

Heard anyone take the WHO’s suggestion to heart that we need to plan for a hospitalization rate higher than current?  That we shouldn’t probably have used a historical average in the first place? This problem is particularly acute in the states because of their system.

 

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https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/sweden-unveils-promising-covid-19-data-as-new-cases-plunge-1.1471871
 

Sweden is interesting.  Highly criticized for not implementing a lockdown and having a higher death rate as a result.  Defenders of the position was to get Covid over and done with.  Death rates would equalize with other countries over the long run,  as those countries experienced more waves.
 

We may find our fortunes in Canada reversed in the not too distant future.  A successful lock down may leave our population susceptible to infection as the US reaches higher immunity levels faster.  I am not talking about herd immunity.  Herd immunity takes much higher percentages. If 25% of a population has antibodies then the strain on health care drops by 25%.  All the countries that have been hit hard on the first go around with Covid will have an advantage moving forward.

In Canada exposure is thought to be around 1%.  We may be like the three little pigs, very happy with ourselves that we saw the wolf, way off in the distance early.  Problem is the wolf is now just sitting outside.  Waiting for us to emerge.
 

This is a marathon.  Long range thinking needs to be used.  Long range outcomes optimized.   The most successful outcomes could very well be in those countries that manage the spread just below their Health care systems capacity.  Those that get overwhelmed will be hit hard.  Those Countries that play it too safe may be simply kicking the risk down the road, not eliminating it.  Worse they could be adding other collateral damage in the delay.

Of course we will only truly know in hindsight.

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I guess the elephant in the room is..... what level of travel in Canada is essential to the prosperity of Canada and the supply of services and then what is also necessary vs nice re other air travel? Are overseas travel necessary or nice, is vacation travel outside of Canada, necessary or nice. (Cancun or Kelowna,  Rome or Quebec city) ...   I guess we will find out.

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10 hours ago, Turbofan said:

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/sweden-unveils-promising-covid-19-data-as-new-cases-plunge-1.1471871
 

Sweden is interesting.  Highly criticized for not implementing a lockdown and having a higher death rate as a result.  Defenders of the position was to get Covid over and done with.  Death rates would equalize with other countries over the long run,  as those countries experienced more waves.
 

We may find our fortunes in Canada reversed in the not too distant future.  A successful lock down may leave our population susceptible to infection as the US reaches higher immunity levels faster.  I am not talking about herd immunity.  Herd immunity takes much higher percentages. If 25% of a population has antibodies then the strain on health care drops by 25%.  All the countries that have been hit hard on the first go around with Covid will have an advantage moving forward.

In Canada exposure is thought to be around 1%.  We may be like the three little pigs, very happy with ourselves that we saw the wolf, way off in the distance early.  Problem is the wolf is now just sitting outside.  Waiting for us to emerge.
 

This is a marathon.  Long range thinking needs to be used.  Long range outcomes optimized.   The most successful outcomes could very well be in those countries that manage the spread just below their Health care systems capacity.  Those that get overwhelmed will be hit hard.  Those Countries that play it too safe may be simply kicking the risk down the road, not eliminating it.  Worse they could be adding other collateral damage in the delay.

Of course we will only truly know in hindsight.

The jury is still out on whether or not having had Covid19 will prevent further infections. Herd immunity requires that infected people become immune for that to be the case... Until that is determined, who knows what is the best strategy...

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Why worry, Russia already has a vaccine...

 

NIZHNY NOVGOROD, August 1. /TASS/. Clinical trials of a coronavirus vaccine developed by the Gamaleya Scientific Research Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology are over, Russian Health Minister Mikhail Murashko told reporters on Saturday.

"Clinical trials of a coronavirus vaccine developed by the Gamaleya center are over, paperwork is underway for the vaccine’s registration," he pointed out.

The health minister added that another vaccine, developed by the State Research Center of Virology and Biotechnology Vector, was going through clinical trials. In addition, the Health Ministry expects that developers of two more vaccines will request permission to start clinical trials on volunte

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I don't imagine many tourists will take advantage of these flights due to Canada's status as Medium Risk, I see even if you pass the test, you will be subject to "Limited Travel" whatever that means..  Perhaps passengers will mostly be people taking advantage of being able to visit relatives.

Quote

image.png.876c3744193795d16ea3ef9ee91a6717.png

Airlines Resume Routes as Caribbean Borders Reopen

AIRLINES & AIRPORTS  BRIAN MAJOR  AUGUST 05, 2020

 
 

Near Crater Lake in Grenada PHOTO: Air Canada this week resumed flights to Grenada. (photo by Brian Major).

Caribbean air service is expanding as destinations slowly re-open their borders to international visitors and regional carriers launch new intra-Caribbean service.

Grenada Tourism Authority officials this week announced Air Canada will resume service to the tri-island nation beginning August 10. Weekly flights will depart Mondays from Toronto Pearson International Airport at 9:00 a.m. and arrive at Grenada’s Maurice Bishop International Airport at 2:05 p.m.

 

Return flights will depart Grenada at 3:00 p.m. and arrive in Toronto at 8:25 p.m. The scheduled flights will utilize Air Canada’s core aircraft as opposed to the Rouge subsidiary jets used in past service to the destination.

 
 

Canada is included among Grenada’s “medium risk” countries due to “active but manageable” COVID-19 transmission. Visitors traveling from such destinations are nevertheless required to “agree to and observe” mandatory protocols prior to booking and on arrival to the island, said GTA officials.

Grenada began a phased re-opening on July 15, and categorizes visitors as low, medium or high-risk, for the purposes of entry. The Ministry of Tourism and Civil Aviation has detailed the protocols for travelers into Grenada in an official comprehensive document for each of the three categories.

“This is a huge step for Pure Grenada, as we continue to observe a measured approach to reopening the destination to international travelers,” said Patricia Maher, GTA’s CEO. “As one of our key source markets, we are pleased to know that we will be able to welcome back visitors from Canada,” she said.

“While we are happy to have visitors explore our vibrant culture and immersive activities, we encourage all travelers to be mindful and ensure they adhere to the current advisories,” Maher added.

Meanwhile, Turks & Caicos-based interCaribbean [cq] Airways on Tuesday launched new regional flights from Barbados' Grantley Adams International Airport to Grenada, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines and Dominica.

The carrier’s expanded Eastern Caribbean routes will “give connective travel to the existing 22 cities served by interCaribbean across its Pan-Caribbean network,” said company officials in a statement.

Barbados is fortunate that interCaribbean has been chosen as its southern hub with a view to expansion and the establishment of headquarters in the future,” said Mia Mottely, Barbados’ prime minister. Barbados officials recently met with “with a number of airlines who have expressed interest in operating in the eastern and southern Caribbean,” Mottley said, prior to this week’s announcement.

Trinidad-based Caribbean Airlines recently launched service to the Eastern Caribbean from Barbados. The carrier is currently operating between Barbados to St. Vincent and the Grenadines and Grenada. Other destinations will be added once regulatory approvals are received, said company officials.

Earlier this year, Caribbean Airlines acquired additional aircraft and resources to broaden its Eastern Caribbean routes, said Garvin Medera, the airline’s CEO.

“Regionally and internationally, there is a lot to restart, and subject to regulatory approvals Caribbean Airlines is resuming our 2020 plans to expand routes in the Eastern Caribbean,” Medera said.

Meanwhile, major carriers are also adding flights to destinations across the Caribbean as borders re-open. American Airlines resumed eight routes from Miami in early July, including service to Santo Domingo, Santiago, Punta Cana and Puerto Plata in the Dominican Republic and Port-au-Prince, Haiti. American also resumed flights to Eleuthera, Georgetown, Exuma and Nassau in The Bahamas.

The carrier will re-launch service to Saint Lucia, Aruba, St Vincent, St Maarten and Providenciales in Turks and Caicos in the coming weeks, according to a Caribbean Journal report.

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