AC retirement projections

[neverminds]

Does anyone have the numbers for the AC pilot retirement projections for say, the next 10 years(and beyond if available)?

thanks

[blues deville]

Lots. 

[airbrake]

If no one goes early it will look like this in the next 10 Years.  And assuming no one is hired into the 55+ age group in the next 10 years   

32 next year

62 in 2 years   

102

112

108

108

125

115

118

144

117

Peak year is in 12 Years at 153.   

 

It looks similar to this in the years following as well 

[neverminds]

THanks that is the info I was looking for 

[j.k.]

Assuming age 67 doesn't come...

The word is that someone has a lawyer.

[Vsplat]

Milton did a lot of things I disagree with, but he sized up AC pilots very accurately.

My words, not his, but ACPA pilots as a herd are moronic.  No matter what the issue is, it seems there is always another faction willing to snakebite the whole for a limited focus or short term gain. 

The extended retirement fight is a perfect example.  Some very wealthy, senior, some might even say pampered individuals did not want the cash flow to change, despite what they signed up for, so wrapped their personal desires in the constitution and, in addition to enriching themselves, ensured that the next generation could not retire at 60 even if they wanted to, (barring a side deal) without taking a ruinous writedown on their pension.  Transfer of wealth from junior to senior.

Before someone from the flypast100 coalition gets assigned to troll this post, I fully support every right the constitution affords, provided there is accountability to ensure one's rights are not weaponized to injure another, as was done in this case. 

Age 67?  No thanks.  I will leave on plan, even if there is a financial cost.  My personal view is that life is worth more than seniority and my partners deserve my best effort.  If I am very lucky, I will hang up my jersey while still doing a respectable job and not wait for someone to tap me on the shoulder and point it out to me.  While there are superhumans among us, the odds of being as capable at 67 as one was at 55 are pretty slim.

And, for what it is worth, I rather like being able to look my younger colleagues in the eye knowing I am not going to hog a position that might help them get their kids through school, as it did for me.  It has been a good gig, but at some point we have to share the wealth.

Flame away.  Might be a source of warmth in our first major eastern storm of the season.

vs

[Moon The Loon]

9 hours ago, Vsplat said:

I rather like being able to look my younger colleagues in the eye knowing I am not going to hog a position that might help them get their kids through school, as it did for me.  It has been a good gig, but at some point we have to share the wealth.

YaBut...the younger kids aren't coming into the game with the same credentials.

We've had our 10 safest years of aviation. Together with MCPL and the resistance to flight crew duty time limitations as well as the regulator's inaction in changing/updating the CAR's, you're kicking out the talent, the experience, the one remaining safety factor in flight crew continuity.

Age 67 or even 70 (medical conditions notwithstanding) will help bridge those failures.

And personally, I don't now nor have ever given a rat's about delays to youngsters' upgrades.

I paid my dues. So too can they.

[Moon The Loon]

1 hour ago, Rich Pulman said:

 I’ve had a solution to this issue for years, but so far nobody seems interested.

...and that would be? (!)??

[Vsplat]

Moon, wrt lacking credentials, I seem to recall overhearing old skippers talking about my generation in the same terms.

IMO,  at the beginning, none of us has all of what it takes. Once the basics of training are behind us, it takes continuous learning at the school of hard knocks, while someone from the last generation keeps a watchful eye so the newbie doesn't kill themself as they figure it out.  And of course the customary shaking of the head goes with the grey streaks and more than a few wrinkles around the eyes.  But figuring it out seemed to happen to my generation, as it will with this one.

Not to say there aren't threats coming as the pilot shortage looms.  I am seeing individuals arrive on property and proceed almost directly to the left seat, without enough time under their belt to realise that passing all of the check rides is the easy part.  And while a lot of these people have a formidable CPU between their ears, I worry that their hard drive is not nearly full enough of those things that make us both humble and better equipped for what actually happens between A and B.

Do we need to change our mentorship in light of the shrinking pool?  Yes.  Does extending retirement age actually improve that mentorship?  That discussion might take us both all the years between now and 67 to resolve.

All the best

Vs

[Seeker]

13 minutes ago, Vsplat said:

Do we need to change our mentorship in light of the shrinking pool?  Yes.  Does extending retirement age actually improve that mentorship? 

Interesting you should mention "mentorship."  I'm not that old but I'm certainly grey and grizzled, been flying for almost 4 decades, have been in my current Captain position for well over a decade and have filled various training and checking roles at 3 companies.  Every so often I'll say something to the junior pilot beside me who has less total time than I have time on the deice pad about how that little thing they are doing introduces a threat or could lead to an error.   Gotta say, those comments are not always received well. (and, before someone says; "well, I'm not surprised since you obviously have an arrogant/bad/overbearing/mean attitude" - I'm joking in how I write things here.  I am respectful and understand that everyone starts from scratch.)  

[Kip Powick]

Gotta say, those comments are not always received well. 

 

FWIW

Fully understand your comments..........When first on the T-Rex I was flying with an ex-EPA , (now CP) I asked him to impart any tricks of the trade with that particular aircraft as he had a decade on it and I was the newbie (as far as time went on the aircraft).

He was flabbergasted and asked if I was serious in that I wanted gather knowledge from the guy in the left seat.....Needless to say we got along very well  and he taught me maneuvers that aren't in any book and was certainly instrumental  in grooming me as a knowledgeable T-Rex pilot.  ((( I did that with every Captain I flew with.....it's a bad day when you don't learn something concerning your chosen profession)))

Now the reason he was "flabbergasted" is that he found many FOs felt that because they were "qualified" on type there was no reason  they should have to listen to any tips or to take any suggestions from the guy in the left seat...ergo.... in many cases the arrogance sits in  the right seat.

Like you, I was a QFI on many types as well as  a CP on numerous aircraft , (all Mil), and when Captain of any mission, the crew I flew with knew I was an advocate of the three "F's"...Firm. Fair and Friendly... 

Perhaps it was easier in the Mil because when I ran across the odd arrogant type FO, I would let him dig a hole (as long as flight safety was not going to be compromised), let him/her be embarrassed and  then have a serious 3F discussion with the guy/gal when the engines were shut down.

Then again we all have our breaking point 

 My second revenue flight on the A310, as a newbie FO,  was YYZ-YVR (overnight)YYZ . After  arriving at the hotel in YVR I asked the Captain to meet me in the coffee shop..He did and I suggested he find another FO to do the return leg back to YYZ...We discussed the " issues"  reached an agreement  and we flew back the next day...flew with him quite a few times and we got along very well. 

 

Have a nice week

KP

  

 

[J.O.]

4 hours ago, seeker said:

Gotta say, those comments are not always received well.

I often find the ability to accept constructive criticism tends to get better with time and experience too - just as much as flying skills do. There’s nothing quite like a few humbling experiences to make one more open to the idea that we don’t know as much as we thought. 

[Trader]

It may never be an issue at a company like AC where they may hire inexperienced FO's but there is a substantial pool of experienced captains. Outside of Canada that is not necessarily true. As the number of experience pilots dwindles airlines simply lower their qualifications. Those inexperienced FO's may upgrade with little experience. EK is now in a situation where I see low time (2000 hour) FO's, newly hired, flying with new captains who have 6000 hours, never had a left seat and the 4000 hours they have in the right seat at EK is long haul with few sectors. Based on the number of incidents we have had recently it is rearing its ugly head (though management doesn't believe it to be an issue). It's an issue throughout the region and I can only imagine what China is like.

Looking at Canada that same situation seems to be developing, though outside AC and Westjet. You can have inexperienced FO's if you have experienced captains and you can get away with captain who have little left seat time but experienced FO's. But, imo, you mix inexperienced captains with inexperienced FO's and you are asking for trouble. That is ture on Dash 8, 737 or 380. I don't think that is something Canada has ever had to deal with until now.