US Pilot Shortage Controversy Heats Up

[Wolfhunter]

T5 is "power turbine exhaust temp" on the likes of the T58 eng (and a few others). I was referring to the 5T check; a little aid memoire for crossing the beacon. Time-turn-track-throttles-talk. Time for me to retire and eat pie I think. Cheers

[Wolfhunter]

1 hour ago, Rich Pulman said:

5T is easy. Do you remember WRACEM and AMORTS?

 

weather-runway-altimeter-clearance-emergencies-minimums/missed approach.

approach-minimums-overshoot-radios-timing-speed/switches

Some communities modified AMORTS to AMORTE or AMORTES... can't remember which though.

remember GUMCUPS?

 

[Kip Powick]

HCTFSO ??  anyone??

[Wolfhunter]

Here comes the flight safety officer... Big 2

Hydraulics-canopy-trim-fuel/flaps-switches-o2

 

PS not fair... I'll get the bug and not want to drive trucks.

[Zan Vetter]

SNOTFARM

(airbus)

Status page, notams, oil level, temp corrections, fuel level, approach briefing, runway condition, missed approach intentions

 

[blues deville]

30 minutes ago, Zan Vetter said:

SNOTFARM

(airbus)

Status page, notams, oil level, temp corrections, fuel level, approach briefing, runway condition, missed approach intentions

 

Nope. Not familiar with that one. But if it worked.......pure poetry! 

[Kip Powick]

8 hours ago, Wolfhunter said:

Hydraulics-canopy-trim-fuel/flaps-switches-o2

1 FTS  YGM ..one year

CFFIS  YPG 18 months

CFFIS YGM (Base Closes)

Fun - Fun Days

[st27]

RAPE ... a diversion memory aid for diversion... Route Altitude Performance Everyone (inform co.)

               For some reason, the company doesn't seem to embrace the acronym. 

[Wolfhunter]

Since there were no takers on GUMCUPS I’ll just tell ya. It’s an old, generic, last chance (things are going wrong) piston engine (single or multi) pre-landing check:

Gas-Undercarriage-Mixture-Carb Heat-Undercarriage (important enough for 2 mentions)-Props-Switches. Only people with file numbers lower than 150XXX are likely to recall it. Clearly of limited value to prospective employers in a TFW world… here’s to eating pie, driving trucks and getting fat.

[Innuendo]

MRT, when things go bad on take off.

More ruddy throttle,

Mixture - RMP - throttle,   advance as required.

from Harvard days.

[Guest]

Why airline pilots are getting the biggest bonuses ever

By Lisa FickenscherBottom of Form

May 28, 2017 | 11:23pm

Airline pilots are flying higher than ever — on the pay scale that is.

Carriers large and small — in both the cargo and passenger sectors — desperate to hire pilots to keep their much-in-demand planes flying — are offering signing bonuses of up to $25,000 along with salaries that have doubled in the last couple of years to $54,995 on average, interviews with several carriers revealed.

Carriers are also offering more time off — making piloting one of the hottest jobs in the US.

It’s quite a turnaround from just eight years ago when a glut of pilots pummeled starting salaries. At that time, pilots on regional airlines made as little as $16,000.

But in mid-2017, thanks to an expansion of overseas flights by large commercial airlines, increased demand from corporate jet fleets and the expansion of cargo-service demand from the likes of Amazon and other e-commerce giants, carriers are often battling each other — stealing pilots back and forth.

It’s not unheard of for a pilot to take a large signing bonus, stay for a year and then leap to a rival carrier — and collect a second signing bonus.

“It’s a competitive market for new pilots,” said Chris Lewless, managing director of labor relations for Horizon Air, a regional carrier for Alaska Air.

In January, Horizon started offering signing bonuses of $10,000 to $15,000 for new hires. It was the first time it offered a bonus.

But it’s gotten so frothy that Horizon’s new labor contract allows it to raise the bonus to as much as $25,000.

“If a number of our competitors started paying higher bonuses our agreement allows us to go up that high,” Lewless added.
Horizon is hardly alone.

At PSA Airlines, first officers, or pilots, can get a $20,000 retention bonus on their one-year anniversary. Wisconsin Air is dangling a $57,000 sign-on and retention bonus spread out over several years.

“We get pilots that will take the bonus for a year and will jump to a second regional,” said Tim Komberec, chief executive of Empire Airlines, an Idaho-based regional for Hawaiian Airlines and FedEx.

Empire last year began offering $10,000 retention bonuses and a 25 percent wage increase.

“We are just stealing pilots from each other,” Komberec added.

The pilot shortage is impacting fliers as well.

Since 2013, with carriers not having enough pilots to fly planes, about 500 airports experienced schedule reductions of between 10 and 20 percent while 18 airports lost connective passenger service altogether, according to the Regional Airline Association.

Last fall, for example, Empire lost one of its FedEx routes in the Southeast to a rival because it was understaffed for several months, according to Komberec.

“We face an industrywide challenge rooted in the fact that there are too few pilots to fly all of today’s routes, let alone tomorrow’s,” said Faye Black Malarkey, president of the trade group.

By 2020, the major airlines will need to hire some 18,000 pilots as that many are expected to retire. That’s as many pilots as are currently employed by all regional carriers.

[Seeker]

First one I learned was CISTRSC  (sister sea).

[DEFCON]

And just when the gravy finally starts to flow the majority of Canadian pilots find themselves locked into ten year CAs. Could the negotiating strategy of the unions have been any more brilliant?

 

[Zan Vetter]

From the sounds of it the ACPA reopener will be quite a bit more wide-ranging than cleaning up contract boilerplate. A very big ask from management should lead to substantial quid pro quo. SHOULD

[blues deville]

I've heard rumours of DEC's again in the near future at AC. Lots of planes coming with lots of pilots retiring.

[Seeker]

On what aircraft?  The only place you get a DECs on on the most junior aircraft.  The Embraer has no shortage of interested bidders, nor does the Old Boot and the C is still years away.

[rudder]

23 minutes ago, blues deville said:

I've heard rumours of DEC's again in the near future at AC. Lots of planes coming with lots of pilots retiring.

The age 65 attrition rate is actually quite shallow for the next several years. Bigger affect on staffing will be whether AC gets ACPA approval for Rouge expansion and whether additional unannounced 787's (and routes) are revealed.

AC may also want to identify a potential reassignment of the 190's as the C-series begin to arrive in late 2019.

If I were ACPA I would not start with a 'NO' but the requisite quid should not simply be growth. AC pay scales are in serious need of recalibration.

[blues deville]

I've heard an average retirement of 150/year for the next few. Plus adding more airframes which is about 24 per plane. Good time to be a young pilot. 

[rudder]

8 minutes ago, blues deville said:

I've heard an average retirement of 150/year for the next few. Plus adding more airframes which is about 24 per plane. Good time to be a young pilot. 

2017 = 60 then 70/100/100/95/120/130/120/120

Higher than 150 kicks in 2026 and beyond.

[Zan Vetter]

Could have sworn 2013 was 150....which then became 2018. Now it's 2026? Yeesh

[Wolfhunter]

Over the past 5 years (or so) I’ve gone on record as stating that there is no “real” shortage and that assertion was based on my own situation and observation of people I know or people in my age group that I know were looking and not finding… (other than entry level positions).  

Well, I see that changing now. I’m no longer “looking” at any price and others are turning of the lights and locking the door behind them as well. Based on our (collective) position in the boomer generation, I see a real shortage hitting soon. IMO, it’s now too late for pay adjustments to save short term pain. The RCAF is, and will continue struggling with this big time as well. That’s another thread though and it’s more of leadership problem than a true shortage of the willing.

[rudder]

The pilot shortage in the US is real and the massive retirement exodus of current mainline pilots has barely begun. AA will retire 50% of a 15,000 pilot list over the next 9 years. The latest DL equipment bid awarded an MD80 CA position to a January 2017 DOH. US regionals are offering signing bonuses of $10-20,000 creating effective first year pay rates of $50-60,000.

Canada will not see the 'crisis' that seems on the horizon in the US, but on both sides of the border the pilot supply crunch will see the phasing out of smaller guage CPA fleet types as the most valuable commodity will be a pilot block hour. With restricted block hours available due to pilot shortages, airlines will have to maximize ASM's by increasing guage. You will see reduced frequency with larger guage at the regional affiliates, and the use of larger versions of NB aircraft at the mainline. Regional feed will evolve to a 76 seat standard and mainline NB capacity of 160-180 seats will become the norm.

The UA CEO is already publicly mulling requests for increased fleet and guage at UA Express. My guess is that the vault will be open for even further increases in UA mainline pay rates in exchange for any relief to CPA restrictions. Second year pay at the majors is already six figures combined with 16% company contributions to retirement vehicles. In this respect, AC/WJ are woefully behind the pay curve.

Things will look much different on both sides of the border 5 years from now. And pilots have more leverage than they have had in almost two decades.

[DEFCON]

I think we've seen this sort of trend before. Waiting for eggs to hatch down the road has never proven to be a wise bet historically in this business; you either make hay when the sun shines, or live with the consequence of failed aspirations. 

Why does the industry push and the unions support the idea that wb flying is somehow the pinnacle of a flying career; other than ego satisfaction and more coin, what's attractive about exposing your body to that environment for years?

Just a hunch, but I'd be willing to bet the C Series aircraft will be assigned to Sky Regional to replace the E jets.

Maybe my information is flawed, but I was told at least one senior Jazz Captain transitioned recently as a DEC to the 320 at AC.

 

 

[Johnny]

No DEC's (yet) on the 320 DEFCON, bottom Captain is seniority #2800 out of roughly 3500.  Not sure what that translates to, maybe been around 5 years? As for the C Series, (never say never in this business....but) there is no stomach for seeing it go to Sky Regional.  For the moment it is covered by our Scope Agreement.

There is no doubt the Company would like it in the feeder system, they would have 87's there if they could.

 

 

[rudder]

2 hours ago, Johnny said:

No DEC's (yet) on the 320 DEFCON, bottom Captain is seniority #2800 out of roughly 3500.  Not sure what that translates to, maybe been around 5 years? As for the C Series, (never say never in this business....but) there is no stomach for seeing it go to Sky Regional.  For the moment it is covered by our Scope Agreement.

There is no doubt the Company would like it in the feeder system, they would have 87's there if they could.

 

 

C-series will be mainline. Pay rate (assuming CS300's are included) should be around 7-9% below the 320/737.

No doubt that AC is going to ask to place the 25 190's at Express after 2019. That will be up to ACPA as the scope limit is clear (and closed as a bargaining item absent mutual consent). I wonder what that transfer would be worth to AC?