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3 hours ago, Don Hudson said:

Still is, even here. George Will is well worth reading, but that has nothing to do with agreeing/disagreeing with him - understanding something is different than holding/defending a point of view.

He provides some worthwhile datapoints in his discussion on Koonin, (who I had not heard of).

Jaydee, good questions, observations - worth some thought.

We know by now that climate change isn't hotter or colder days - even a few years' worth of record-breaking events. I recall fires and extremely hot days as child in BC with huge snowdrifts in Vancouver. Vancouver experienced Hurricane Freda, (1962) at a time when climate change was the last chapter in a tired social studies textbook on "pollution", with the hackneyed, terrible black-and-white images of smoke stacks. Today it would be "evidence"...

As Will would agree, most don't think of any of this as "climate change". I think it is more fruitful to examine trend & stability of atmospheric temperature with available long-term data and evidence in geological sources, ans well as compositional changes of the atmosphere. If it is creeping, Venus-like, then we must examine whether "our" environment will be congenial to "us", (and our food sources!), or not, over time.

Moon, I think most grow quickly weary of the debate-style win-lose motif. The trend in how discussion unfolds is troublesome - Will states this quite well: ", . . . but science has limited ability to disentangle human and natural influences on climate changes". So it makes it very difficult to separate opinion from fact, given the sometimes-similarity between them! This thread is six years old now and merits a re-read from the beginning to sense the character of the conversation as it unfolds.

Almost everyone here is "busy"/really-busy earning a living, raising families, dealing with what life throws at us, aging, financial as well as what I could call "geological" security, (a long-term place to live) - so this is complicated, frustrating stuff to be sure and there isn't much left in the tank to deal with stuff we can't control. But the change, regardless of how/why, must be dealt with, even if the decision is to privilege economic activity over all else.

 

Good Afternoon Don:

I have been following all the responses and everyone is asking good and proper questions on this subject that unfortunately will be decided by the arbitrators of history long past the time we will be alive. The most salient point is what do we as a civilization want to leave for the future? Is it a rock solid economic base, a place that still is liveable or a combination of the two?

If I may quote Johann Wolfgang Goethe (1749 1832)   "

"Nature understands no jesting; she is always true, always serious, always severe; she is always right, and the errors and faults are always those of man.

The man incapable of appreciating her, she despises; and only to the apt, the pure, and the true, does she resign herself and reveal her secrets.”

I am sure you have observed in your career where TCU tops used to be around mid 30's and when I stopped 11 years ago mid 50's to 60's were common. As it is lift, instability and moisture that determine the make up of TCU it is my thinking the later two have remained constant where the lift has changed by the effect of increased daytime heating.

Further is why are we having huge forest fires not only in BC but California, Siberia and Greece. I have inserted a picture (hope I did it right) from a fellow retired colleague near his home in Vernon. I can not think of a time when I have seen so many forest fires in the world. So what is the driver behind these fires?

Another concern is the melting glaciers in Greenland. As we know fresh water is denser then salt water and there is concern that the Atlantic Conveyor (Gulf Stream) will be weakened or stopped. In my thinking the consequences could be huge. Here in the east yearly precipitation levels are down about 100 ml for the last four years. So where does this stop? I don't have a clue where but I have noticed a change in my lifetime.

  It sure would be nice to have a crystal ball but I don't..... 

  

Fire in Vernon BC.heic

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36 minutes ago, A330PilotCanada said:

 

Another concern is the melting glaciers in Greenland. As we know fresh water is denser then salt water and there is concern that the Atlantic Conveyor (Gulf Stream) will be weakened or stopped. In my thinking the consequences could be huge

You might want to take a look at that but nevertheless the possible return of GreenLand to be a greenland as evidently it was around 900AD is something to note.

It seems that the reverse is true

Salt water is more dense than fresh water Density = mass/volume. Increasing the mass by adding salt increases the density. Seawater is a little bit more dense than fresh water so it sinks beneath freshwater. This means that when rivers flow out into the sea the river freshwater floats on top of the sea water.

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Reality Bites !!


“The big looming problem with old EVs: It’s really, really hard to change the battery “

Even on a vehicle with only 150,000 km, battery replacement can be more expensive than the car's value

When Clayton Brander’s Nissan Leaf first hit the showroom floor in 2013, it was advertised as having a range of 121 kilometres. Now, after 116,589 km on British Columbia’s Sunshine Coast, the car’s instrument cluster claims to have a range of 98 km, but Clayton says “it’s realistically more like 75 km if you don’t use heat or air conditioning and the weather conditions are perfect.”

So Brander set out to do what he assumed would be easy: Call the dealer and buy a new battery. But the Powell River man soon discovered that virtually no B.C. dealer had ever installed a post-warranty battery, and they even struggled to quote him a price.

 

They keep referring you to Nissan Canada, who refer you back to your local dealer,” said Brander, adding, “this problem is going to get bigger as more of these Leaf’s start to lose their range.”

Electric vehicles are seeing a meteoric rise in the Canadian market. In B.C., in particular, with zero emission vehicles now making up eight per cent of vehicle sales, the province’s vehicle fleet is rapidly becoming the most electrified in the world. As many of those vehicles now approach the end of their warranty periods, many owners are set to join Brander in learning that their vehicle’s most critical component — the battery pack — is often difficult to replace. As the electric vehicle revolution hits Canadian roads in earnest, many of those cars might end up hitting the junkyard far sooner than buyers suspect.

 

ARTICLE

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3 hours ago, Skeptic said:

You might want to take a look at that but nevertheless the possible return of GreenLand to be a greenland as evidently it was around 900AD is something to note.

It seems that the reverse is true

Salt water is more dense than fresh water Density = mass/volume. Increasing the mass by adding salt increases the density. Seawater is a little bit more dense than fresh water so it sinks beneath freshwater. This means that when rivers flow out into the sea the river freshwater floats on top of the sea water.

Good Evening Skeptic:

Thankyou for the catch as I did a "reciprocal" by accident.

In the articles I have provided they talk about the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) aka Gulf Stream or Conveyor Belt. This flows in the layers of the Atlantic from the Caribbean/Mexico which hits Newfoundland then goes east towards the UK and Scandinavia. Some of the water heads north towards the Artic becoming more dense after it lost moisture and heat. As the articles state it starts to sink and returning to the equator hence the name Conveyor Belt.

Where I made the mistake was from the last ice age where the article talks about a sudden influx melt water preventing the heavier saltwater in the AMOC from sinking to keep the conveyor belt.

Again thank you for the catch and next time I will wear my bifocals....

Hyperlinks below:

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shutdown_of_thermohaline_circulation

 https://globalnews.ca/news/8089039/gulf-stream-collapse-study-canada-europe/

 

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https://electrek.co/2021/08/16/worlds-largest-solar-powered-battery-system-is-now-75-complete/

World’s largest solar-powered battery system is now 75% complete

The Florida Power and Light (FPL) Company’s Manatee Energy Storage Center, the world’s largest solar-powered battery system capable of powering Walt Disney World for around seven hours, is now 75% complete.

World’s largest solar-powered battery system

It’s in Parrish in Manatee County, which is is south of Tampa and north of Sarasota, on Florida’s west coast. In March 2019, Electrek reported that Florida Power and Light had announced plans for its huge Manatee Energy Storage Center, and now it’s on the home stretch to completion.

20210812-FPL-Manatee-0464.jpg?quality=82 Manatee Energy Storage Center Photo: Florida Power and Light

Crews have installed the center’s first battery modules. It’s now 75% finished, with 100 out of 132 containers installed, and all 132 of the project’s inverters set. Each container will hold around 400 battery modules.

The Manatee Energy Storage Center will have a 409-megawatt (MW) capacity with the ability to deliver 900 MWh of energy – enough to power 329,000 homes for more than two hours. That’s the equivalent of around 100 million iPhone batteries, and when operational, it’ll be four times the capacity of the current largest battery system in operation.

The energy storage containers sit on 40 acres, and the batteries are expected to have a life span of 40 years.

FPL explains:

Charged by the existing Manatee Solar Energy Center, the battery will increase the predictability of solar – extending its benefits even when the sun’s not shining, such as at night or on a cloudy day. By deploying energy from the batteries when there is higher demand for electricity, FPL will offset the need to run other power plants – further reducing emissions and saving customers money through avoided fuel costs.

FPL’s solar boost

The Manatee Solar Energy Center is expected to be launched later this year, and replaces FPL’s coal plants.

In June, FPL demolished its last coal-fired plant, the Indiantown Cogeneration Plant in Martin County, east of the Everglades. And right before the plant imploded, FPL CEO Eric Silagy announced that the utility will build a solar center near the site.

FPL is the largest energy company in the US as measured by retail electricity produced and sold. It currently has  41 solar farms in the state, with nearly 3,000 MW of capacity.  All of its solar farms that have come online in 2021 will also support FPL SolarTogether, the largest community solar program in the US . It’s proving to be a popular program – SolarTogether is currently fully subscribed.

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Now isn't this how capitalism is supposed to work???

https://www.teslarati.com/mcdonalds-piggybacks-tesla-firebaugh-supercharger/

McDonalds piggybacks off of Tesla’s Largest U.S. Supercharger

A McDonald’s franchise in Firebaugh, California, is piggybacking off of the Firebaugh Tesla Supercharger station, which is the largest in the United States. Attracting customers to the Golden Arches isn’t too difficult, to begin with, especially when the fries are hot and the Sprite is cold. However, Tesla owners may now have an extra incentive to visit the Firebaugh charger, especially since McDonald’s is reminding drivers that one of their franchise locations may be the perfect place to charge your body (kind of) while you charge your car.

We all know McDonald’s is not the most healthy option on the long and winding roads of California, but we do know that it is fast, affordable, and delicious a lot of the time. McDonald’s locations may be the perfect place to grab a bite and sit down outside of your car after a few hours of driving while your Tesla is charging nearby. The Firebaugh location is taking advantage of this mentality.

Reddit u/kesslertava posted a photograph of the Firebaugh McDonald’s with a banner outside of its parking spaces reading:

“Recharge with McDonald’s while you recharge your Tesla: Food delivered directly to your charge bay (place your charge bay in curbside #.)

 

tesla-firebaugh-mcdonalds.jpeg

Credit: Reddit u/kesslertava

 

 

This is quite the strategy that McDonald’s, which stopped counting at 99 billion customers served in 1993, has employed, especially as its location already makes it a favorable stop for hungry drivers. However, piggybacking off the Supercharging process, which has decreased in length several times over the years thanks to faster charging speeds, is almost comical. Driving business from the Superchargers into the McDonald’s almost seems like the old dog is learning new tricks. McDonald’s has been around for decades, but Tesla only for less than two decades.

However, this McDonald’s location surely knows that catering to the Tesla owners who choose to charge up at the Firebaugh location are prone to spend their money at a location that acknowledges their presence.

We aren’t sure if this has driven business at this McDonald’s up through the roof. Still, there’s a possibility that the location’s busiest hours may directly correlate to the busiest hours at the Firebaugh charger. Nevertheless, McDonald’s also offers Tesla something: many locations and a lot of business. This could lead to an eventual partnership between the two companies for Superchargers, much like WaWa and Target have already done with Tesla charging points.

McDonald’s has 13,443 locations in the United States, and not all of them will get Tesla Superchargers; maybe none of them will. But if they do, it would offer Tesla an unbelievable range of potential Supercharger locations, adding to the already 20,000+ locations the automaker has established currently.

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What It Means When Climate Scientists Say They're Certain

The use of the word ‘unequivocal’ in the IPCC’s latest report was no small step for science-speak

Mon Aug 23, 2021 - Bloomberg News
By Akshat Rathi and Eric Roston

Quote

In climate science especially, certainty is the rarest of commodities. Despite hundreds of years of scientific work, how all of the variables that make weather patterns and ecosystems interact is just too complex for even the most advanced model or computer to predict infallibly.

Scientists just made history by declaring, definitively and in unison, that climate change is caused by people. “It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean, and land,” they wrote in the first comprehensive report from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in nearly a decade.

And yet the reaction from many people was: Wait, didn’t we already know that?

Scientists and non-scientists have different understanding of “certainty,” and that goes a long way toward explaining why detractors have had such an easy time casting doubt on the reality of climate change. Bridging that communications gap has never been more crucial. The IPCC’s report makes clear that we have little time left to wind emissions down to zero, which means there’s none to waste on semantic arguments.

Let’s recap. Since the creation of the IPCC in 1988, its volunteer scientists from around the world have been tasked with producing periodic assessments of the state of climate change.

1990. The first report found, in effect, that human activities were increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations, and that rising concentration would result in greater warming of the Earth’s surface.

1995. The second report linked the two by saying: “The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on the global climate.”

2001. The third report made an attribution leap: “There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.”

2007. The fourth report made the conclusion stronger: “Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.” (This report was also 
the debut of the new assessment’s key word: “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal.”)

2013. The fifth report: “It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.”

Now. The coup de grace in the sixth report applied that “unequivocal” framing to the whole human-climate link.

Even though the language has become more assured, the report released Monday is still painted in shades of uncertainty on many impacts of climate change or attempts to mitigate it. That’s not just because scientists prefer to be conservative. It’s also because the best way to express reality is through varying degrees of probability. 

In IPCC-speak, “very likely” equals 90% to 95% certainty, “likely” equals 66% to 90%, and so on. At this point, IPCC scientists think they have a 1% to 10% chance of being wrong on some aspects of climate change. That isn’t nothing, but still, that’s scientists talking. If they relied on the confidence levels most of us use, they wouldn’t have had to go beyond the calculations that showed burning coal could change the planet—which were done in 1896.

In climate science especially, certainty is the rarest of commodities. Despite hundreds of years of scientific work, how all of the variables that make weather patterns and ecosystems interact is just too complex for even the most advanced model or computer to predict infallibly.

The scientific method recognizes different levels of knowledge. There are observations, which are plain enough. There are hypotheses, which are provisional, testable explanations of the observations. There are scientific laws, which are hypotheses that have been tested so many times that they appear to be correct.

Then there’s the body of knowledge with the greatest explanatory power, backed by reams of evidence: the “theory”—which is also the discipline’s supreme example of unfortunate word choice. There’s the Big Bang theory, confirmed by satellite observations in the 1990s, which explains the origins of the universe. There’s the Theory of Relativity. There’s [ducks] the Theory of Evolution.

But in public life, the word theory means the opposite of that. It’s the most easily dismissible thing.

It’s in this context that we should consider the IPCC authors’ use of the word “unequivocal.” Scientists aren’t just certain that humans are causing climate change, they’re certain enough to defend their understanding in front of nearly 200 delegates from around the world, some of whom would rather not agree to such a statement.

The nearly 4,000-page report released Monday by the IPCC wasn’t full of surprises. In fact, it was crafted from thousands of scientific studies subjected to peer review over the past eight years. Much of the information it contained could be reasonably taken as immutable fact by a non-scientist. But the rest of us have that luxury because scientists have done the work to build up armors of evidence around their conclusions, then harden them in the fires of robust debate before releasing them out into the world.

The public and policymakers should not be afraid to wield these findings. As Laurence Tubiana, leader of the European Climate Foundation and one of the architects of the Paris Agreement—and, for what it’s worth, not a scientist—concluded: “Scientists did their job, it is time for leaders to do theirs.”

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  • 2 weeks later...

This is showing the way forward...

https://reneweconomy.com.au/another-record-tumbles-as-renewables-share-reaches-57-3-per-cent/

The share of renewable energy in Australia’s main grid reached another record level on Sunday – 57.3 per cent – continuing the spree of new benchmarks over the last few weeks.

This time of year – late winter and early spring – is often witness to new records due to the relatively mild seasonal temperatures, which translates into moderate or low demand, sunny conditions and steady winds.

At 11.30 on Sunday morning, the new level of 57.3 per cent renewables share was set, overtaking the 57.1 per cent set just over a week earlier. As we reported on Friday, new weekday records (when there is usually greater demand) were set, both for the share of renewables and for the lowest aggregate coal generation.

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Link to official government report is at bottom of post.

 

https://www.vice.com/en/article/xgx3pa/the-us-installed-more-wind-energy-than-any-other-energy-source-last-year

The US Installed More Wind Energy Than Any Other Energy Source Last Year

 
Wind surpassed solar and natural gas in 2020. American wind turbines are getting bigger, more efficient, and are increasingly important to the grid.
 

Wind officially beat out solar as the fastest-growing energy source in the country this year, according to a new report by the U.S. Department of Energy. 

The US installed a record 16,836 megawatts of wind capacity in 2021, as detailed in the 2021 Land-Based Wind Market Report, published Monday by the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. 

The US ranked second (after China) in annual and cumulative wind power capacity additions in 2020, a result of nearly $25 billion in investments in the form of tax incentives, research and development, and growth in manufacturing and operations and maintenance facilities. 

This investment has proven fruitful, not just in bringing the country closer to achieving renewable energy goals state and federal governments have laid out, but in reducing the burdens of our collective reliance on fossil fuels. Nationally, the health and climate benefits of wind are worth $76 per megawatt-hour, the report asserts, as every unit of wind generated reduces the need for the same unit of a polluting energy source (recent research has attributed air pollution from fossil fuels to nearly 20 percent of deaths worldwide). 

“Wind reduces emissions of carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and sulfur dioxide, providing public health and climate benefits,” the report reads. The financial benefits of reducing these emissions are worth almost three times the cost of producing wind energy, the report notes.

Land-locked states in the center of the country stand to gain the most from building out land-based wind technology, the report says (crucially, this report does not include statistics on offshore wind technology, which coastal states like New York are building out, and which represent a potentially substantial source of energy). Wind provides more than 30 percent of total electricity in Iowa, Kansas, Oklahoma in the Dakotas, home to some of the fastest breezes in the nation. Texas installed the most wind power capacity in the country in 2020 (even as right-wing commentators alleged that frozen turbines caused its catastrophic February grid failures, a claim that was quickly debunked). 

https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2021-08/Land-Based Wind Market Report 2021 Edition_Full Report_FINAL.pdf

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Change is happening.

https://reneweconomy.com.au/worlds-first-fully-recyclable-wind-turbine-blades-roll-off-production-line/

World’s first “fully recyclable” wind turbine blades roll off production line

The world’s first fully recyclable wind turbine blades have rolled off the production line of a factory in Denmark, ready to be installed and tested at an offshore wind farm being developed in Germany.

Siemens Gamesa announced the launch of its RecycleableBlade on Tuesday, as a “milestone” step towards its goal of making whole wind turbines fully recyclable, by 2040.

For now, the company has produced the first six 81-meter long recyclable blades at its manufacturing plant in Aalborg, ready for commercial use.

The blades look likely to make their operational debut at the 342MW Kaskasi offshore wind farm, which is in the early stages of construction in the German North Sea, as part of an agreement with developer RWE. The project is expected to be operational in mid-2022.

Siemens said it had also made deals with French company EDF Renewables and German wind project developer, wpd, both of which had agreed to install sets of the RecyclableBlades at one of their future offshore wind farms.

The production of fully recyclable wind turbine blades is a milestone for the global wind industry, which – like the solar and battery industries – has been scrambling to find sustainable end-of-life solutions to match with the enormous and escalating uptake of the technology.

As RenewEconomy explained here, it’s estimated that by 2050, 43 million tonnes of decommissioned turbine blades will reach their end of life and need to be managed through the global waste stream. Current practice in the US and Europe is to bury the blades in large landfill sites.

According to Siemens, 85% of a wind turbine is already recyclable, but the challenges have been in making up that final 15 per cent, as well as in finding cost-efficient and sustainable methods for recycling.

On the latter front, the blades have proved especially tricky to recycle efficiently, due to the fact that the standard blades are cast using glass and carbon fiber, a core material like wood or polyethylene terephthalate foam (PET), and a resin system – which binds all the components together.

The difficult part is the separation of the cured resin from the other materials in order to recycle or reuse the components once a wind turbine is decomissioned. And this is where the innovations comes in.

Siemen’s RecycleableBlades are made using a new new resin type whose chemical structure makes it possible to efficiently separate the resin from the other components at end of their working life.

This is done by immersing a used blade into a heated mild acidic solution, which will separate the resin from the fiber glass, plastic, wood and metals.

Siemens says this process works to protect the properties of the materials in the blade, allowing them to be reused in new applications, including in the automotive industry and in consumer goods like flight cases and flat-screen TV casings.

“The time to tackle climate emergency is now, and we need to do it in a holistic way,” said Siemens Gamesa CEO Andreas Nauen.

“In pioneering wind circularity – where elements contribute to a circular economy of the wind industry – we have reached a major milestone in a society that puts care for the environment at its heart.”

Sven Utermöhlen, CEO of offshore wind at RWE Renewables said the testing of the recyclable turbine blades at the Kaskasi project was “a significant step” in advancing the sustainability of the industry.

“We are pleased that our offshore wind farm Kaskasi is able to provide a fantastic facility for testing innovations; here we are preparing to test special steel collars and to use an improved installation method for foundations,” he said.

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California Seeks to Avert Blackouts by Burning More Gas

Fri Sep 10, 2021 - Bloomberg News
By Mark Chediak and Naureen S Malik

Quote

'The emergency request highlights the conflict between California’s green aspirations and the physical reality that wind and solar thus far haven’t been able to cover power shortfalls exacerbated by the shuttering of gas-fired generators.'

California is asking the federal government to declare an “electric reliability emergency” so the Golden State can lean more heavily on fossil fuels to avoid blackouts. 

The state’s main grid operator wants the U.S. Department of Energy to suspend air-pollution rules for some natural gas-burning power plants in case their output is needed “to meet demand in the face of extremely challenging conditions including extreme heat waves, multiple fires, high winds, and various grid issues,” according to a filing. The last time California received a waiver of such length and breadth was 21 years ago during the Western Energy Crisis. 

For a second straight day, authorities urged residents of the biggest U.S. state to conserve energy as a heat wave boosts air-conditioning use.

The emergency request highlights the conflict between California’s green aspirations and the physical reality that wind and solar thus far haven’t been able to cover power shortfalls exacerbated by the shuttering of gas-fired generators. The California Independent System Operator has warned of looming electricity shortages several times this summer.
 
An emergency declaration by the Energy Department would allow new gas units recently ordered by the state to connect to the grid by the middle of this month, the California ISO said in its filing. It would also relax pollution limits for some other gas plants that would otherwise be forced to temporarily halt power production.

A similar emergency order was issued during the deadly Texas freeze that triggered widespread blackouts, Energy Department spokesman Kevin Liao said. 

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1 hour ago, Airband said:

California Seeks to Avert Blackouts by Burning More Gas

Fri Sep 10, 2021 - Bloomberg News
By Mark Chediak and Naureen S Malik

California is asking the federal government to declare an “electric reliability emergency” so the Golden State can lean more heavily on fossil fuels to avoid blackouts. 

The state’s main grid operator wants the U.S. Department of Energy to suspend air-pollution rules for some natural gas-burning power plants in case their output is needed “to meet demand in the face of extremely challenging conditions including extreme heat waves, multiple fires, high winds, and various grid issues,” according to a filing. The last time California received a waiver of such length and breadth was 21 years ago during the Western Energy Crisis. 

For a second straight day, authorities urged residents of the biggest U.S. state to conserve energy as a heat wave boosts air-conditioning use.

The emergency request highlights the conflict between California’s green aspirations and the physical reality that wind and solar thus far haven’t been able to cover power shortfalls exacerbated by the shuttering of gas-fired generators. The California Independent System Operator has warned of looming electricity shortages several times this summer.
 
An emergency declaration by the Energy Department would allow new gas units recently ordered by the state to connect to the grid by the middle of this month, the California ISO said in its filing. It would also relax pollution limits for some other gas plants that would otherwise be forced to temporarily halt power production.

A similar emergency order was issued during the deadly Texas freeze that triggered widespread blackouts, Energy Department spokesman Kevin Liao said. 

A great example of "be careful what you wish for"  

Quote

image.png.d3d26572be43391e76aa0bfedea3a0b7.png

California lawmakers pass bill to phase out fossil fuels by 2045 | Engadget

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  • 2 weeks later...

Why are so many people so stupid. They believe the lies of the malevolent left and look what happens. They have spent years demonizing skeptics like me who think things through rationally instead of emotionally. Let the European fools learn the hard way. Maybe it will save me from the stupidity over here. Even the conservative party in the UK bought into the climate change scam.

Any fool should be able to figure out that when the global warming scammers, who were saying that our kids would never see snow, start blaming the cold snaps as evidence that it is getting warmer , that this is a complete fraud. Yet the fools continue to accept and vote for massive economic damage.

 

Years ago, under the name Woxof(who was banned by the lefties who ran the board at the time), I called this the Scam of the Century. Nothing has changed.

 

Europe Faces Bleak Winter Energy Crisis Years in the Making - Bloomberg

Europe Faces Bleak Winter Energy Crisis Years in the Making

Europe is bracing for a tough winter as an energy crisis that’s been years in the making leaves the continent relying on the vagaries of the weather.

Faced with surging gas and electricity prices, countries from the U.K. to Germany will need to count on mild temperatures to get through the heating season. Europe is short of gas and coal and if the wind doesn’t blow, the worst-case scenario could play out: widespread blackouts that force businesses and factories to shut.

The unprecedented energy crunch has been brewing for years, with Europe growing increasingly dependent on intermittent sources of energy such as wind and solar while investments in fossil fuels declined. Environmental policy has also pushed some countries to shut their coal and nuclear fleets, reducing the number of power plants that could serve as back-up in times of shortages.

“It could get very ugly unless we act quickly to try to fill every inch of storage,” said Marco Alvera, chief executive officer of Italian energy infrastructure company Snam SpA. “You can survive a week without electricity, but you can’t survive without gas.”

Energy demand is rising from the U.S. to Europe and Asia as economies recover from the global pandemic, boosting industrial activity and fueling concerns about inflation. Prices are so high in Europe that two major fertilizer producers announced they were shutting plants or curtailing production in the region.

And it’s not just businesses. Governments are also concerned about the blow to households already contending with higher costs of everything from food to transport. As power and gas prices break records day after day, Spain, Italy, Greece and France are all stepping in to protect consumers from inflation. 

“It will be expensive for consumers, it will be expensive for big energy users,” Dermot Nolan, a former chief executive officer of U.K. energy regulator Ofgem, said in a Bloomberg TV interview. “Electricity and gas prices are going to be higher at home than everybody would want and they are going to be higher than they have been for about 12 years.”

Europe’s gas prices have more than tripled this year as top supplier Russia has been curbing the additional deliveries the continent needs to refill its depleted storage sites after a cold winter last year. It’s been hard to get hold of alternative supplies, with North Sea fields undergoing heavy maintenance after pandemic-induced delays, and Asia scooping up cargoes of liquefied natural gas to meet rising demand there.
Higher gas prices boosted the cost of producing electricity as renewables faltered. Low wind speeds forced European utilities to burn expensive coal, depleting stockpiles of the dirtiest of fossil fuels. Energy policy also played a role, with the cost of polluting in the European Union surging more than 80% this year. 
 
“Gas supply is short, coal supply is short and renewables aren’t going great, so we are now in this crazy situation,” said Dale Hazelton, head of thermal coal at Wood Mackenzie Ltd. “Coal companies just don’t have supply available, they can’t get the equipment, the manufacturers are backed up and they don’t really want to invest.”

European gas inventories are at their lowest level in more than a decade for this time of year. Gazprom PJSC’s CEO Alexey Miller said Europe will enter the winter in about a month without fully replenishing its buffer stockpiles. The Russian gas giant has been pushing to start its controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

Struggling EU Gas Storage Refill
 
 

Europe now needs favorable weather. While forecasters say temperatures are unlikely to plunge below normal next month, expectations can always change. Similar weather forecasts did not materialize last year, resulting in a bitter temperatures that sent LNG prices in Asia to a record in January. 

“It may happen again,” said Ogan Kose, a managing director at Accenture. “If we end up having a very cold winter in Asia as well as in Europe, then we may end up seeing a ridiculous spike in gas prices.”

In 2018, a deep freeze that became known as the Beast from the East took energy traders by surprise. This year there’s also a chance that a La Nina weather pattern would develop again. While the phenomenon can bring warm weather to Europe, it tends to send temperatures plummeting in Asia.

The U.S. Climate Prediction Center said there’s a 66% chance that a La Nina pattern will return some time from November to January. That could exacerbate the fight for LNG cargoes, as buyers from Japan to India start panic buying due to fears of competition with Europe.

Asian, European gas prices move in tandem
 
 

“Unfortunately, the way the weather works, when it’s cold, it is cold: it’s cold for the U.S., it’s cold for Europe and then it gets cold for Asia,” said Snam’s Alvera, who is betting on hydrogen as the future for green energy markets.

Europe will need to curtail demand if the winter is cold, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said, predicting the region will face blackouts. There are already signs of stress, with CF Industries Holdings Inc. shutting two fertilizer plants in the U.K. and Yara International ASA will have curtailed its ammonia production capacity by 40% by next week.

Shutdowns also risk hitting the food supply chain, which uses a byproduct of fertilizer production in everything from meat processing to beer. The sugar and starch industries are also affected, with France’s Tereos SCA and Roquette Freres SA warning of higher energy costs.

And it doesn’t stop there. Europe top copper producer Aurubis AG said higher prices will continue to squeeze margins through the rest of the year. Even chemicals giant BASF SE, which produces most of its power, said it has been unable to fully swerve the impact of record-breaking electricity prices.

Supplies are unlikely to improve significantly any time soon. Russia is facing an energy crunch of its own and Gazprom is directing its additional production to domestic inventories. Prices could stay high even if Europe ends up with a mild winter, said Fabian Ronningen, an analyst at energy consultant Rystad Energy AS.

“With natural gas prices already hitting record highs in Europe ahead of rising winter demand, prices could move even higher in the coming months,” said Stacey Morris, director of research at index provider Alerian in Dallas. “There is a potential it can get worse.” 

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Welcome to the world of the stupid people(ie our world of voters in the west who actually believe pie in the sky political scams).

Surging gas prices are the 'transition premium' in the push toward renewables, OPEC chief says

Surging gas prices are the 'transition premium' in the push toward renewables, OPEC chief says

I have talked about a new premium that is emerging in the energy markets that I term the transition premium," Mohammed Barkindo told CNBC's Dan Murphy at the Gastech conference in Dubai. 
 
Global gas prices have tripled this year alone, sending ripples through markets and raising concerns that prices of the commodity will only continue to rise. 
 
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Soaring gas prices are the cost of the attempted shift to renewable energy sources, OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo told CNBC on Tuesday. 

"I have talked about a new premium that is emerging in the energy markets that I term the transition premium," Barkindo told CNBC's Dan Murphy at the Gastech conference in Dubai. 

The long-time head of the oil cartel criticized what he believed was an overly emotional approach to energy policies and climate change, though he did not point a finger at specifically who was to blame for what he described as a "misrepresentation of facts." 

Barkindo contended that there was "distortion of facts and the science, and the misrepresentation of these facts in the conversation, which is not healthy, because climate change and the energy transition are supposed to be guided by the science." 

"The intergovernmental panel on climate change is supposed to be the most authoritative body with regard to both climate change and the transition," he said. "And we in OPEC believe they are doing a great job, they are producing very very important, seminal reports, but unfortunately these reports are being set aside and the discussions ensuing at the moment, more or less being driven by emotions rather than the great work that this scientific body is producing for all of us."  

Tripled gas prices

The OPEC chief's words reflect a growing debate among policymakers and energy executives about the future of energy, renewables, and the climate. Many governments around the world and particularly in the West are pushing for a shift away from fossil fuel use, while those in the industry argue that a rapid transition attempt will disrupt markets, harm consumers, and is ultimately unrealistic.   

Global gas prices have tripled this year alone, sending ripples through markets and raising concerns that prices of the commodity will only continue to rise. 

The roots of the price increase lie in higher demand and lower supply, as higher summer temperatures in the U.S. stoked demand for air conditioning, and longer periods of cold in the U.K. other parts of Europe in the spring meant increased needs for heating.

This has all led to lower gas supplies for the coming winter months, meaning we are likely to see a greater squeeze on supplies and higher prices to come. 

Gas prices had remained very low since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, at around $2 per one million British thermal units, or mmBtus. But the reopening of economies and restart of travel as vaccination campaigns expand have jolted demand upward.  

'A burden on many countries'

United Arab Emirates Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei, speaking to CNBC at the same event, contended that while gas prices appear high, they came from a very low level to begin with.

"It was coming from a very low environment," Al Mazrouei said of the gas price situation. "I think the current prices, if they continue they will be a burden on many countries and will not see the demand side on a longer term be ready to take such prices."  

The energy minister said that "the right balance is the balance between the affordability of the consumers and the fact that we are seeing a reasonable return for the developers and the producing countries," but added, "We're not there yet." 

The costs, regulations and financing needs surrounding new energy projects are a barrier to any return to lower prices, Al Mazrouei noted.  

"This is a situation that is responding to a low gas environment that happened before," he continued. "Now, what is sustainable, I think the market will dictate it. There are challenges, financing new projects, especially for the IOCs (international oil companies), and we need to have a realistic view on easing such restrictions for them to finance new projects."

"That's what I think we will be discussing between the industry, the companies and the consumers and some of the developers as well, and hopefully, during the discussions of the event, they could announce new projects that could balance the prices in the future," he added.

 

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3 hours ago, Junior said:

Welcome to the world of the stupid people(ie our world of voters in the west who actually believe pie in the sky political scams).image.png

I think your compass needs to be "swung" calibrated. Hurry and locate the nearest "Compass Rose"  The voters you talk about are actually east of the Manitoba/Ontario border.  Last nights election proved that.  ?

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7 hours ago, Junior said:

Why are so many people so stupid. They believe the lies of the malevolent left and look what happens. They have spent years demonizing skeptics like me who think things through rationally instead of emotionally. Let the European fools learn the hard way. Maybe it will save me from the stupidity over here. Even the conservative party in the UK bought into the climate change scam.

Any fool should be able to figure out that when the global warming scammers, who were saying that our kids would never see snow, start blaming the cold snaps as evidence that it is getting warmer , that this is a complete fraud. Yet the fools continue to accept and vote for massive economic damage.

 

Years ago, under the name Woxof(who was banned by the lefties who ran the board at the time), I called this the Scam of the Century. Nothing has changed.

 

Europe Faces Bleak Winter Energy Crisis Years in the Making - Bloomberg

Europe Faces Bleak Winter Energy Crisis Years in the Making

Europe is bracing for a tough winter as an energy crisis that’s been years in the making leaves the continent relying on the vagaries of the weather.

Faced with surging gas and electricity prices, countries from the U.K. to Germany will need to count on mild temperatures to get through the heating season. Europe is short of gas and coal and if the wind doesn’t blow, the worst-case scenario could play out: widespread blackouts that force businesses and factories to shut.

The unprecedented energy crunch has been brewing for years, with Europe growing increasingly dependent on intermittent sources of energy such as wind and solar while investments in fossil fuels declined. Environmental policy has also pushed some countries to shut their coal and nuclear fleets, reducing the number of power plants that could serve as back-up in times of shortages.

“It could get very ugly unless we act quickly to try to fill every inch of storage,” said Marco Alvera, chief executive officer of Italian energy infrastructure company Snam SpA. “You can survive a week without electricity, but you can’t survive without gas.”

Energy demand is rising from the U.S. to Europe and Asia as economies recover from the global pandemic, boosting industrial activity and fueling concerns about inflation. Prices are so high in Europe that two major fertilizer producers announced they were shutting plants or curtailing production in the region.

And it’s not just businesses. Governments are also concerned about the blow to households already contending with higher costs of everything from food to transport. As power and gas prices break records day after day, Spain, Italy, Greece and France are all stepping in to protect consumers from inflation. 

“It will be expensive for consumers, it will be expensive for big energy users,” Dermot Nolan, a former chief executive officer of U.K. energy regulator Ofgem, said in a Bloomberg TV interview. “Electricity and gas prices are going to be higher at home than everybody would want and they are going to be higher than they have been for about 12 years.”

Europe’s gas prices have more than tripled this year as top supplier Russia has been curbing the additional deliveries the continent needs to refill its depleted storage sites after a cold winter last year. It’s been hard to get hold of alternative supplies, with North Sea fields undergoing heavy maintenance after pandemic-induced delays, and Asia scooping up cargoes of liquefied natural gas to meet rising demand there.
Higher gas prices boosted the cost of producing electricity as renewables faltered. Low wind speeds forced European utilities to burn expensive coal, depleting stockpiles of the dirtiest of fossil fuels. Energy policy also played a role, with the cost of polluting in the European Union surging more than 80% this year. 
 
“Gas supply is short, coal supply is short and renewables aren’t going great, so we are now in this crazy situation,” said Dale Hazelton, head of thermal coal at Wood Mackenzie Ltd. “Coal companies just don’t have supply available, they can’t get the equipment, the manufacturers are backed up and they don’t really want to invest.”

European gas inventories are at their lowest level in more than a decade for this time of year. Gazprom PJSC’s CEO Alexey Miller said Europe will enter the winter in about a month without fully replenishing its buffer stockpiles. The Russian gas giant has been pushing to start its controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

Struggling EU Gas Storage Refill
 
 

Europe now needs favorable weather. While forecasters say temperatures are unlikely to plunge below normal next month, expectations can always change. Similar weather forecasts did not materialize last year, resulting in a bitter temperatures that sent LNG prices in Asia to a record in January. 

“It may happen again,” said Ogan Kose, a managing director at Accenture. “If we end up having a very cold winter in Asia as well as in Europe, then we may end up seeing a ridiculous spike in gas prices.”

In 2018, a deep freeze that became known as the Beast from the East took energy traders by surprise. This year there’s also a chance that a La Nina weather pattern would develop again. While the phenomenon can bring warm weather to Europe, it tends to send temperatures plummeting in Asia.

The U.S. Climate Prediction Center said there’s a 66% chance that a La Nina pattern will return some time from November to January. That could exacerbate the fight for LNG cargoes, as buyers from Japan to India start panic buying due to fears of competition with Europe.

Asian, European gas prices move in tandem
 
 

“Unfortunately, the way the weather works, when it’s cold, it is cold: it’s cold for the U.S., it’s cold for Europe and then it gets cold for Asia,” said Snam’s Alvera, who is betting on hydrogen as the future for green energy markets.

Europe will need to curtail demand if the winter is cold, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said, predicting the region will face blackouts. There are already signs of stress, with CF Industries Holdings Inc. shutting two fertilizer plants in the U.K. and Yara International ASA will have curtailed its ammonia production capacity by 40% by next week.

Shutdowns also risk hitting the food supply chain, which uses a byproduct of fertilizer production in everything from meat processing to beer. The sugar and starch industries are also affected, with France’s Tereos SCA and Roquette Freres SA warning of higher energy costs.

And it doesn’t stop there. Europe top copper producer Aurubis AG said higher prices will continue to squeeze margins through the rest of the year. Even chemicals giant BASF SE, which produces most of its power, said it has been unable to fully swerve the impact of record-breaking electricity prices.

Supplies are unlikely to improve significantly any time soon. Russia is facing an energy crunch of its own and Gazprom is directing its additional production to domestic inventories. Prices could stay high even if Europe ends up with a mild winter, said Fabian Ronningen, an analyst at energy consultant Rystad Energy AS.

“With natural gas prices already hitting record highs in Europe ahead of rising winter demand, prices could move even higher in the coming months,” said Stacey Morris, director of research at index provider Alerian in Dallas. “There is a potential it can get worse.” 

Good Afternoon Junior:

In your post above you made mention of W0X0F by any chance are you the new iteration of same?? 

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7 hours ago, Kargokings said:

I think your compass needs to be "swung" calibrated. Hurry and locate the nearest "Compass Rose"  The voters you talk about are actually east of the Manitoba/Ontario border.  Last nights election proved that.  ?

I mean the west as in western civilization where multiple countries are voting themselves into destruction.

Junior: Who has a finely tuned compass with no internal errors.

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1 hour ago, Junior said:

I mean the west as in western civilization where multiple countries are voting themselves into destruction.

Junior: Who has a finely tuned compass with no internal errors.

And I also suggest you calibrate your altimeter, as you are, attitude wise, cruising well above your highest service ceiling .   ?

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It's all about the price, and that's got the taps for energy closed until prices recover.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/uhenergy/2021/09/08/until-production-settles-natural-gas-prices-will-continue-their-uptick/?sh=625c264c1d01

Until Production Settles, Natural Gas Prices Will Continue Their Uptick

During the pandemic, the contraction of oil production in places like the Permian shale last year also reduced the supply of accompanying natural gas.

Despite this contraction, prices quickly fell to $1.63 per MMBtu in June 2020. It was triggered by the drop in manufacturing that had been caused by the pandemic-related disruption to supply chains. 

This raises the question of how domestic supply is responding to this expected demand increase. If the Permian does not recover to prior levels of activity, and it is not expected to do so, those companies that are primarily natural gas producers in the Haynesville, Marcellus, and Utica will increase their drilling activity. Even George Mitchell’s original gas shale play in the Barnett shale will see new activity. 

If oil prices remain in the $70 per barrel level, growth in oil production may resume and may increase the supply of natural gas.  

The Permian Basin in Texas has the opposite problem. The low natural gas prices combined with a lack of infrastructure in place has led to the flaring of much of its gas: 900 billion Btu over a year in 2019. At current prices, the value of this flared natural gas would be well over $1 billion.

At some point, throwing gas away because the cost of pipelines don’t justify themselves will no longer make economic sense (if it currently does). The push for more electrification as a solution to climate change will also increase demand, but in the immediate future is not considered to be significant enough to drive price increases. 

“As natural gas prices firm up, some northeast guys will increase production, and that will offset the exports sent out of the country,” Jamison Cocklin, a senior editor at Natural Gas Intelligence, said. “Natural gas prices are more balanced in that sense.”

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On 9/22/2021 at 10:54 AM, deicer said:

It's all about the price, and that's got the taps for energy closed until prices recover.

 

Correct. Unlike governments run by left wingers, companies don't typically throw good money around frivolously.

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Watch what happens when unbridled capitalism, as well as the Russians throwing a wrench into the works, will do to western economies.

This is just a flex by the energy producers trying to show who's really in charge.

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3 minutes ago, deicer said:

Watch what happens when unbridled capitalism, as well as the Russians throwing a wrench into the works, will do to western economies.

This is just a flex by the energy producers trying to show who's really in charge.

Was capitalism ever bridled?  ?

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9 minutes ago, deicer said:

Watch what happens when unbridled capitalism, as well as the Russians throwing a wrench into the works, will do to western economies.

This is just a flex by the energy producers trying to show who's really in charge.

I suspect that someone running an energy company in the manner you suggest would be bankrupt.

Anyways, my energy stocks are paying big dividends(like Enbridge) and most of them are going up, with only one exception. Will help pay for rising costs.

Too bad so many on the left have left us more exposed to the Russians. Little investment in the oil patch these days to offset those Russians and OPEC. And now we even have someone admitting that our economies could be hurt by the Russians. Would have been a lot less likely with Trump and Harper.

Get ready for big financial losses in your overall wealth due to the left. Big inflation, a lot less money coming into this country with rising energy price than could have been, and absolutely no change in the climate trend.

 

You fools voted for it.

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