Oh oh....maybe the Liberals are serious about no expansion

[vikingwarrior]

R.I.P.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/garneau-island-airport-liberal-1.3316527

Plan B.....YYZ or YHM?

[Guest]

Interesting way to make such an important announcement. I guess this is an "new age" news release.

[rudder]

Interesting way to make such an important announcement. I guess this is an "new age" news release.

There is no announcement to be made. The Liberals won. This was part of the campaign platform.

As I said before - if flying jets is part of Porters commercial evolution, then I hope that they have a Plan B. Judging from RD's recent comments, they do not. He also asserts that the company is now effectively debt free. Congratulations. Now let's see if it can run cash flow positive. I'll bet the tenant payments to the recently divested Terminal Corp are significant.

Time for Porter to stop looking to governments (or their agencies) to perpetuate the quasi-monopoly situation at TCCA.

[Guest]

rudder: just reviewed their Official Platform on their web page and could not find anything on Toronto City Airport. Did I overlook it? Or was it not part of their official platform? But perhaps it was only part of Mr Vaughan's platform.

Fort York Liberal Adam Vaughan promised during the campaign that the Grits would scrap expansion of the island airport.​

[rudder]

The new Transport Minister just told you that this was part of the "LPC committment".

Is that too ambiguous for you?

[rudder]

Ottawa confirms no jets for Toronto's island airport

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/ottawa-confirms-no-jets-for-torontos-island-airport/article27247257/

[rudder]

There is always more to the story. I'll bet that the Minister of Economic Development, BBD, and AC are working on a substantial and more comprehensive package that will benefit each of the parties. Porter is a non-issue and always was as far as this file is concerned.

My suggestion to Porter is to expand on the theme of paying back the initial investors by putting up the 'for sale' sign on the airline. I am not sure what it is worth with the terminal having been sold off and a potentially onerous tenant agreement having been signed, but there is likely some asset value (debt free) and perhaps some going concern value as well with the slot ownership arrangement at TCCA.

Porter only survives with continued expansion and revenue growth. It's wings just got clipped as far as TCCA is concerned and attempted growth at unprotected hubs will be a financial blood bath. Porter has a great staff but its product model and associated marketing cost is unsustainable. Best it be swallowed up by AC or WJ so that its employees will have a future.

The volume of operations at TCCA can be rebranded and backed off to economically sustainable levels and surplus capacity reallocated out in to the respective red or teal system.

[boestar]

from the globe article

Ottawa’s decision puts the Trudeau government in a tough spot. Quebec had requested that the federal government deliver financial aid to Bombardier in the wake of Quebec’s own $1-billion investment in the company announced last month. At first glance, it would appear hypocritical for Ottawa to dash Bombardier’s hopes for a C Series order of that magnitude while also helping the plane maker with a sizable level of funding.

Why a tough Spot? the two entities are entirely separate. What porter wants is one thing, what Bombardier needs is quite another. Porter could exercise their order and operate at YHM, YYZ or elsewhere. There is no tough spot

[Guest]

The new Transport Minister just told you that this was part of the "LPC committment".

Is that too ambiguous for you?

So I guess this means you will accept anything he says as Gospel?

[DEFCON]

"The volume of operations at TCCA can be rebranded and backed off to economically sustainable levels and surplus capacity reallocated out in to the respective red or teal system."

That statement sounds awfully anti-competitive and shill like Rudder.

[Guest]

Rudder: why would either AC or WestJet buy them? That would be a major mistake for either carrier as they don't need the Island operation to make money and Porter has no exclusive routes to bring to the table.

[boestar]

No but they do have a bunch of relatively new Q400s

[rudder]

Porter has proven that under certain circumstances TCCA represents a potentially viable part of a broader network. It would fit much better within a network carriers system than it is currently structured with a smattering of disjointed code share arrangements. And TCCA weather related IRROPs that lead passengers to LBPIA would be much more easily managed within a larger carriers infrastructure and facilities located at Pearson.

Porters volume and marginal route choices are eroding its own yields and creating unsustainable costs given the limited revenue potential in and out of TCCA. Therefore, capacity must be right-sized. This will also help to prevent yield erosion across the larger North American network of the acquiring carrier.

With fully trained staff accompanying the aircraft, the excess capacity can be redeployed on an aggressive basis. This gives the acquiring carrier a leg up in the domestic marketplace. At a total fleet of just 26 aircraft, it is not so difficult to digest.

The acquiring carrier (or enterprise) does not have to be AC or WJ directly. It could be a proxy.

Porter's investors are looking for ROI. I am not sure how many options are left. IPO? I doubt it.

Hardly a "shill like" analysis as the net result is that the vast majority of the Porter staff would have a secure job going forward.

[dagger]

There is always more to the story. I'll bet that the Minister of Economic Development, BBD, and AC are working on a substantial and more comprehensive package that will benefit each of the parties. Porter is a non-issue and always was as far as this file is concerned.

My suggestion to Porter is to expand on the theme of paying back the initial investors by putting up the 'for sale' sign on the airline. I am not sure what it is worth with the terminal having been sold off and a potentially onerous tenant agreement having been signed, but there is likely some asset value (debt free) and perhaps some going concern value as well with the slot ownership arrangement at TCCA.

Porter only survives with continued expansion and revenue growth. It's wings just got clipped as far as TCCA is concerned and attempted growth at unprotected hubs will be a financial blood bath. Porter has a great staff but its product model and associated marketing cost is unsustainable. Best it be swallowed up by AC or WJ so that its employees will have a future.

The volume of operations at TCCA can be rebranded and backed off to economically sustainable levels and surplus capacity reallocated out in to the respective red or teal system.

Agreed, this is the ideal situation for the parties to scratch each other's back. As for Porter's order, it was always pie-in-the-sky, dependent - or so it would seem - on obtaining conditions that didn't exist and might never exist, like a billion dollar expansion (to be paid by whom?) of the island airport. Of more concern by far to Bombardier is the Republic Airways order (40 jets), which will never be fill since Airbus effectively lured Republic out of the deal with a promise to pay any penalties. Bombardier doesn't need the penalty money, it needs firm orders. Of course, the penalty money could be applied to a sale of 40 jets to another party that happens to have 39 marketable Embraer 175s and 190s and on whom the feds might sprinkle some magic fairy dust.

[DEFCON]

Yes, the staff 'may' have a job, but the public will have one less choice meaning competition will be set back.

Your comments; "Porters volume and marginal route choices are eroding its own yields and creating unsustainable costs given the limited revenue potential in and out of TCCA. Therefore, capacity must be right-sized. This will also help to prevent yield erosion across the larger North American network of the acquiring carrier", would seem to confirm my contention.

Competition amongst carriers generally creates an over capacity situation on many routes, which results in the erosion of yields, lower fares and better values for the consumer. I think your analysis is innocent enough, but doesn't fairly examine all the considerations. IOW's, it wouldn't be unfair for the reader to conclude that you're an industry insider with a vested interest in the outcome being advanced.

[rudder]

Of course, the penalty money could be applied to a sale of 40 jets to another party that happens to have 39 marketable Embraer 175s and 190s and on whom the feds might sprinkle some magic fairy dust.

I am sticking with a 25 firm/25 option for a combination of CS100/300 aircraft for AC. It may well be the feds that agree to take back the 25 E190's or at least eat the remainder of the associated debt in order to grease the wheels towards a deal and provide the $1B in secured financing that BBD is looking for from Ottawa. In other words ... win-win-win.

[rudder]

it wouldn't be unfair for the reader to conclude that you're an industry insider with a vested interest in the outcome being advanced.

I do not own a single airline share and my job is secure regardless of what direction this takes. Therefore, the suggestion of vested interest is inaccurate. However, I would prefer to see an outcome whereby none of the airline staff become victims of poor corporate decision making. That is a pattern that has been repeated in this industry far too often.

[Lando Calrissian]

Interesting way to make such an important announcement. I guess this is an "new age" news release.

It's an entirely appropriate mode of response for a child who doesn't know how to take no for an answer.

But I expect the lawsuit is coming down the pike. It's always the recourse with this airline entrepreneur.

[Guest]

No but they do have a bunch of relatively new Q400s

Fully owned or rentals?

[Super 80]

And the extent to which I give a **bleep** about this country falls just a little bit further...

[Guest]

Trudeau issues marching orders to his cabinet leaving no doubt about who is in charge .

They can be read at:http://pm.gc.ca/eng/ministerial-mandate-letters

I find in particular his orders to the AG to be interesting:

• Lead a process, supported by the Minister of Health, to work with provinces and territories to respond to the Supreme Court of Canada decision regarding physician-assisted death.

• Develop, in collaboration with the Minister of Indigenous and Northern Affairs, and supported by the Minister of Status of Women, an approach to, and a mandate for, an inquiry into murdered and missing Indigenous women and girls in Canada, including the identification of a lead Minister.

• Review our litigation strategy. This should include early decisions to end appeals or positions that are not consistent with our commitments, the Charter or our values.

• You should conduct a review of the changes in our criminal justice system and sentencing reforms over the past decade with a mandate to assess the changes, ensure that we are increasing the safety of our communities, getting value for money, addressing gaps and ensuring that current provisions are aligned with the objectives of the criminal justice system. Outcomes of this process should include increased use of restorative justice processes and other initiatives to reduce the rate of incarceration amongst Indigenous Canadians, and implementation of recommendations from the inquest into the death of Ashley Smith regarding the restriction of the use of solitary confinement and the treatment of those with mental illness.

• Work with the Minister of Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness and the Minister of Indigenous and Northern Affairs to address gaps in services to Aboriginal people and those with mental illness throughout the criminal justice system.

• Working with the Ministers of Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness and Health, create a federal-provincial-territorial process that will lead to the legalization and regulation of marijuana.

• Undertake modernization efforts to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the criminal justice system, in cooperation with provinces and territories. This should include improved use of information technology to make the system more efficient and timely, exploration of sentencing alternatives and bail reform, and the creation of a unified family court.

• Support the Minister of Canadian Heritage to restore a modern Court Challenges Program.

• Work with the Ministers of Finance and National Revenue to develop a modernized regulatory and legal framework governing the Charitable and Not-for-Profit sectors.

• Engage all parties in the House of Commons to ensure that the process of appointing Supreme Court Justices is transparent, inclusive and accountable to Canadians. Consultations should be undertaken with all relevant stakeholders and those appointed to the Supreme Court should be functionally bilingual.

• Support the Minister of Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness in his efforts to repeal key elements of Bill C-51, and introduce new legislation that strengthens accountability with respect to national security and better balances collective security with rights and freedoms.

• Support the Minister of Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness in his efforts to repeal key elements of Bill C-42 and implement our commitment to reduce the number of handguns and assault weapons on our streets.

• Implement our platform commitments to toughen criminal laws and bail conditions in cases of domestic assault, in consultation with stakeholders and with the goal of keeping survivors and children safe. You should undertake this work in consultation with the Minister of Status of Women and the Minister of Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness.

• Work with the President of the Treasury Board to enhance the openness of government, including supporting his review of the Access to Information Act to ensure that Canadians have easier access to their own personal information, that the Information Commissioner is empowered to order government information to be released and that the Act applies appropriately to the Prime Minister’s and Ministers’ Offices, as well as administrative institutions that support Parliament and the courts.

• Introduce government legislation to add gender identity as a prohibited ground for discrimination under the Canadian Human Rights Act, and to the list of distinguishing characteristics of “identifiable group” protected by the hate speech provisions of the Criminal Code.

- See more at: http://pm.gc.ca/eng/minister-justice-and-attorney-general-canada-mandate-letter#sthash.xUx0SGxy.dpuf​

[Kip Powick]

And the extent to which I give a **bleep** about this country falls just a little bit further...

I can assume you work for Porter or at least on the island but think your comment is borne from frustration at not seeing/getting what Porter wants. To make disparaging comments about this country is really ill advised.

Think of the guys and gals that had their entire companies go "down the drain" but picked themselves up and went back at it, and I am sure you can do the same.

I make this post only because I dislike comments from anyone who throws dirt on what I consider one of the finest countries in the world.

PS..I changed "companies" three times....not the same situation you may find yourself in, but it certainly wasn't this country's fault.

[Super 80]

Actually neither, just an all consuming frustration that all opportunity in this country outside of condo flipping and writing environmental reports is being squeezed out by ethereal bullshit. Whether it's a fringe environmental group propagating poorly informed nonsense or a corporate interest wringing their hands about "uncertainty", it's all the same. There can never be a reasonable decision making process about anything anymore because the entire process is consumed by extreme minorities with the wherewithal to register a web domain.

My general indifference to this country has been growing for years and this is just another log on the fire.

[Lando Calrissian]

Win an election and you can make all the rules you want.

Maybe then Canada will be worthy of your esteem.

[Super 80]

Nobody is well served by this type of decision making, on this or any other subject. Alberta's very economic viability is threatened by the same phenomenon.