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Pilot Shortage Is Here


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20 minutes ago, deicer said:

Don't care.......any unmanned aircraft is fine as long as there are no living and breathing humans on-board.......cargo doesn't bleed, die, and leave grieving NOK  at impact.

 

PS..Amazon is already doing cargo with drones...:lol:

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Funny how Autoland is used as a given to Pilotless Aircraft.  Autoland goes back to the DC10, L1011 era, decades old technology. 

I too have many friends flying in the Corporate Jet sector, all on the edge of retirement.  Some of the notorious departments ( we all know who they are, ) who are nervous flyers and have enjoyed being safely flown around the globe are in for a shock.  Good luck replacing those old timers for the wages you have been paying.

That doesn't even touch the Contract Management companies that have destroyed the good Corporate Flight Departments.

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6 hours ago, boestar said:

Why is this discussion all about $$$$$ 

That has long been the MBA and HR position. How many experienced red seal welders would work for entry level wages simply because they changed companies or moved to a new town. There would be a shortage of welders just like there is a shortage of pilots. They would drive trucks. The entry level wage thing is just because they can. And, they can until they can't. When they can't anymore, I may crack the books... but not before.

So, I’m not paying for my own type training, I’m not paying to fly, I’m not flying for minimum wage, I'm not working on the ramp, and I’m not signing a training bond... I actually like the roar of diesel engines. Flying is a job and for too long employers have abused those “following the dream.” I’m simply not going back to an entry level wage and I know lots of veteran pilots who won't either. So, fix it or enjoy the shortage. This has nothing at all to do with being happy in a job... Doctors in Cuba work in the resorts as bar tenders for the same reason and they seem to enjoy it.

Edited by Wolfhunter
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Wolfhunter;

The question you have to ask yourself is this;  "Can I outlast the companies that are doing the hiring?"  Eventually it will get to the point at which companies will need to pay more but if you have to wait 30 years (or 20, or 10) is it worth waiting and what will you do while you're waiting?  Of course if all pilots thought the same and acted together the day would come sooner but since there are always a few who act in self-interest, perhaps out of necessity, you may find the wait to be unacceptable.

Your point about veteran pilots refusing to accept lower wages is interesting.  Veteran pilots, perhaps with the mortgage paid off and money in the bank, can afford to be altruistic but a young guy with loans to pay and no pay cheque in sight can't really be faulted for making the hard choice to accept a position with a training bond.

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This same sort of topic on Pilot compensation makes the rounds here on a fairly regular basis.  Exactly what should a pilot get paid.  Ask 10 different people get 10 different answers.

Pilot shortage or not the end game is $$$$$$ and how many $ should be there.  Once upon a time it was the love of the job but it has been diminished to that of a bus driver.  So now its a matter of money makes it bearable.

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4 hours ago, Kip Powick said:

Don't care.......any unmanned aircraft is fine as long as there are no living and breathing humans on-board.......cargo doesn't bleed, die, and leave grieving NOK  at impact.

 

PS..Amazon is already doing cargo with drones...:lol:

Hi Kip

As we are aware, Amazon is using the drone thing, but this move by Boeing is the next step.  

Start with a small unmanned aircraft, gain experience, then scale up.  Yes, it will start with cargo, but won't take long to transfer to pax when the savings are realised.  Just ask elevator operators.

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"Exactly what should a pilot get paid."

From the pilot pov, one should 'make hay when the sun shines' because the mba's are sure  to cut the harvest back when things go south. In the meantime, the bonuses to the mba crowd go on unchecked only because they follow the above mentioned rule of thumb.

Alas, the benefits are not likely to ever come to most pilots though simply because they get far too caught up in their own sense of importance and grandeur to ever organize themselves appropriately.

 

Edited by DEFCON
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46 minutes ago, boestar said:

Once upon a time it was the love of the job but it has been diminished to that of a bus driver...  

Nope, bus drivers have a higher starting salary.

seeker -  It’s not altruistic, in my view a 55 (ish) year old expat Capt retuning to Canada might find himself in the situation I’m talking about… that’s assuming he still wanted to fly for 4 or 5 years at home. So, the question is would he? If, after looking at the options, the answer is no then the question is why?  I think we know the answer.

Given the available options, he’s more likely to do something for fun… excavators are fun. Towing gliders for Cadets is fun too. 8 legs a day as a DH8 FO for 34K doesn’t tick the box unless he wanted to relive his youth. That said, he and I would both do that if we were 20 and working our way up. In the face of hysterical ravings about pilot shortages though, I’m simply pointing out that he is as “up” as he ever will be and may be of some value to a company willing to reward his experience by not paying him an entry level salary... treat him like a bus driver and he might work for you. I think this may be slowly changing and some DEC positions are out and around... I simply haven't stayed on top of it. Cheers

Edited by Wolfhunter
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29 minutes ago, deicer said:

Start with a small unmanned aircraft, gain experience, then scale up.  Yes, it will start with cargo, but won't take long to transfer to pax when the savings are realised.  Just ask elevator operators.

Again?  Really?  How many times do we need to discuss pilotless aircraft?

Look, I already gave you the answer.  It is possible to have pilotless aircraft now but it isn't possible, nor will it likely ever be possible to simultaneously achieve the current levels of safety, reliability and cost without a human at the controls. You don't even need to be airborne - who will check the wings for contamination?  Take the Westjet evacuation last week in Toronto - without a pilot who will call the evacuation?  

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19 hours ago, blues deville said:

but after 40 years of flying airplanes for a living and knowing what I know can happen to the best laid plan there’s no way I will ever be a passenger in a pilotless aircraft. 

I won’t say never, but the only way I’d do it would be if the remote pilot was strapped to an electric chair that administered the appropriate “feedback” based on the success of the flight. 

Skin in the game folks. Skin in the game.

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The airlines will simply continue to lower the requirements to fill seats. They will lower them to nothing more than a basic licence if they have to. The regionals in Canada are already scraping the bottom of the barrel and the other operators take what is left over.

These companies will simply lower the upgrade requirements as well. As long as the seats are filled they don't care.

Airlines around the world have been doing this for the last 5 years (only now is it hitting Canada). Emirates is at the point where is is hiring pilots with 2000 hours or less. They have been short for a long time and simply increased monthly flying to the point where pilots are flying 100 hours or more a month. Doesn't matter as long as the fights go!

Emirates (and it's sister company Fly Dubai) have crashed TWO airplanes in the last few years and .....nothing changes. In the last 6-8 months EK has had two 380's almost descend onto the ground on approach, multiple other approach and departure incidents... nothing changes!

I forecast our 777 crash well before it happened and, but for some luck, will crash another one and not get as lucky with no deaths as the last one.

You cannot have inexperience in BOTH seats of a flight deck. Concepts like the MPL etc may work if you have an extremely rigorous training regime combined with experienced captains. You also cannot simply squeeze more flying out of the existing crews - especially if they are inexperienced.

Canada hasn't experience this yet but they are starting to. In the past, even at AC the FO's had good experience PRIOR to joining and spent enough time in the right seat (or sideways) to learn.

In the last 3-5 years the basic ability of the FO's I have been flying with has declined dramatically. The current crop (with 2000 hours or so) are barely competent  and, worse, do not realize it! They can fly wonderfully on the autopilot but anything, ANYTHING, out of the ordinary and they are lost. I could write paragraph after paragraph of examples just from the past year. Worse is the poor attitude showed by many of them - not sure if it is generational or an age related issue.

This is what you will start to see very soon here (from friends at some smaller airlines in Canada they have already started to see it).

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17 minutes ago, Kasey said:

Flying colleges are having the same problem. Once again, a failure to acknowledge the concept of supply and demand which ultimately sets the price equilibrium for instructor pay. If $30k is not enough, offer $50k. If $50k is not enough, offer $70k. Or close the doors.

it is shocking the lack of awareness of the reality of the pilot shortage in Canada at virtually all levels of the industry.

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Charity. This flying club wants pilot charity. And they are not alone.

The days of indentured pilot servitude are over. Living in a past pilot supply paradigm will be the recipe for eventual corporate extinction.

The industry is changing. The flying business is changing.

First organization to stop being reactive and instead start being proactive and create a new model based on pilot supply chain realities will be both the winner and the survivor.

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Thats a vicious circle.  Pay the instructors more and charge the students more which drives up the cost and becomes an inhibitor to people entering the training cycle.

Historically flying instructor was not a full time, family supporting job.  it was a means to an end to build up commercial flying time in order to get a job flying for a living (not a great living but a living) eventually culminating in an airline of Biz jet job.

The hours in the seat are as valuable as the dollars for the young instructor.  

Heck I flew with instructors that were full time AC pilots.  Some of whom may even visit  here.

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17 minutes ago, boestar said:

Thats a vicious circle.  Pay the instructors more and charge the students more which drives up the cost and becomes an inhibitor to people entering the training cycle.

Historically flying instructor was not a full time, family supporting job.  it was a means to an end to build up commercial flying time in order to get a job flying for a living (not a great living but a living) eventually culminating in an airline of Biz jet job.

The hours in the seat are as valuable as the dollars for the young instructor.  

Heck I flew with instructors that were full time AC pilots.  Some of whom may even visit  here.

One flying college offered the entire pending graduating class the opportunity to remain as flight instructors after graduation. Guess how many accepted? Zero.

Times have changed. Clinging to the past will not solve the current and future problem.

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6 hours ago, boestar said:

Heck I flew with instructors that were full time AC pilots.  Some of whom may even visit  here.

The mid 1980’s starting pay of $19,000 had several working elsewhere. A friend of mine continued working his old sporting goods store job to keep afloat. Entry level payscales for young pilots were an issue long before this recent situation but Canada seemed to produce enough qualified candidates annually.

Edited by blues deville
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and from the other side of the picture.

National carriers pursue Yukon pilots amid Canada-wide shortage

The Air Transportation Association of Canada estimates industry is short more than 300 pilots

CBC NewsPosted: Jan 17, 2018 12:03 PM CT Last Updated: Jan 17, 2018 12:37 PM CT

An Alkan Air Dornier 228, in Whitehorse. Local airlines face competition from larger, national carriers for their pilots.

An Alkan Air Dornier 228, in Whitehorse. Local airlines face competition from larger, national carriers for their pilots. (Philippe Morin/CBC)

A shortage of pilots across Canada is affecting the Yukon's airline industry.

Commercial pilots are starting to retire in large numbers and there are not enough people being trained to replace them.

"We are fortunate in the Yukon Territory to be in a unique part of the country that people enjoy living in," says Wendy Taylor, president of Alkan Air. "However, I can confirm that the major carriers are certainly seeking our pilots and we are losing some of them."

Wendy Tayler, Alkan Air president

Wendy Taylor, president of Alkan Air, says local airlines are losing some pilots to national airlines. (Cheryl Kawaja/CBC)

Taylor says without question all local carriers are going to face pilot shortages.

The Air Transportation Association of Canada estimates the industry is short over 300 pilots.

Air North president Joe Sparling says flight schools need to attract and train more pilots.

li-air-north-sparling

Air North president Joe Sparling says his company lost three or four employees last spring to national airlines.

Recently, some of his commercial pilots took jobs with national airlines.

"We lost three or four people last spring and I think it has caused us to think about steps that we might take to address the issue," said Sparling.

He says it's not a money issue, because the pilots who left Air North had to take pay cuts with their new jobs.

Sparling says, pilots likely choose to move south for lifestyle reasons. 

John McKenna is the president of the Air Transportation Association of Canada.

John McKenna

John McKenna is the president & CEO of Air Transport Association of Canada, representing 80 airlines and flight training organizations. (Ashley Burke/CBC )

He says it can cost over $80,000 to train a commercial pilot, so it's important to attract and retain them.

"A company like Air North, they fly 737's which is what Sunwing fly, what Westjet fly, so it is one of the most popular airplanes in the world. So, those pilots are in high demand," said McKenna.

He says some airline's pilots are getting scooped up by national carriers before the local carrier can recoup their investment.

Sparling says one of the benefits of working for Air North is most days pilots can come home to their own bed.

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