Pilot Shortage Is Here

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, DEFCON said:

Sim time is not a substitute for real world experience of any kind that I can think of Malcolm.

 

I tend to agree but isn't most training on new aircraft types mostly sim time due to cost?  So someone moving up from a prop commercial aircraft to a large pure jet would have certain skills but aren't there certain hands on skills that are unique based on aircraft type and performance?  Anyway it is indeed a different world from when my father started out flying a biplane and after many many hands-on hours finished flying the DC8-63

[Innuendo]

Some say that a successful sim performance is like a successful appendectomy on a cadaver.  

Edited April 27, 2016 by Innuendo

[rudder]

Porter hire DEC.

Skyregional hire DEC.

Air Georgian hire DEC.

Jazz will eventually be hiring DEC. 

The genie is out of the bottle. Cadet programs fill seats but also create other logistical problems. DEC is required because some of the current FO's either do not meet licensing requirements (ATP) or internal minimum experience requirements (matrix).

The US majors are repatriating work because the pilot supply chain cannot support status quo with the CPA vendor model. The same will eventually happen in Canada. 

[Critter]

Add WestJet Encore to that list. They hired DECs in the YYZ base recently.

 

In any case, the writing is definitely on the wall.

[Guest]

Seems that hiring DECs may not be bad if they match the chap in this story:

Pilot's Blog

Greetings from Malaysia. I was hired by AirAsia as a Direct Entry Captain in June of this year and am still in their training program but have completed the A320 Type Rating Training portion. AirAsia is based in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia and has bases in Kutching, Kota Kinabalu and Penang. They also operate Thai AA, Indonesia AA, Singapore AA, Phillipines AA and soon Japan AA. Presently they are hiring for Malaysia AA (only). I have been flying since I was 19 spending the first 6 years flying various float planes throughout Canada's North and West coast. I then spent 10 years flying the Dash-8 with companies like Air Atlantic (gone), City Express (gone) and overseas in the Caribbean, Colombia, Taiwan and the Maldives. I returned to Canada to accept a job with First Air (RIP Flt 6560) as a B727 First Officer upgrading to Captain after a year and a half. I spent several years with 7F (First Air) then accepted a job with Cargojet in Hamilton on the B727F and then the B757F/B767F. I was with Cargojet for several years and decided, last year, to go back overseas to complete my career in a tax free environment. AirAsia is presently hiring DEC for the A320 fleet accepting CV's from Jet Captains AND high time Jet First Officers as well as high time Turboprop Captains for A320 DEC positions. They're hiring/interview process entails applying on-line via their website (on initial page click that you 'are qualified' to reach the actual application, fool the silly system). You could get email'd for an interview within weeks of applying. You will have to get yourself to KL although they do offer flights on their system. I flew from Toronto to London (Transat CDN $500 then AirAsia X from there to KL). Get up to speed on ATP/Jet Topics for the interview. The sim eval is in the A320. Because you "probably" don't have 320 experience they're not looking for specific 320 procedures but more your "thought process" as a Captain. However, I bought a couple hrs in a 320 at CAE Toronto to get the hang of it as I've been a Boeing driver my whole career. Once/if your offered a position again you have to get yourself to KL with the same AA offered flights. They will put you through their training process which includes the A320 Type Rating course done by CAE located onsite and several weeks of groundschool covering various topics as well as writing the Malaysian DCA Regulations Exam for license conversion. All in all your looking at 4 or 5 months of training before your online. Presently all new hires are being based in Kutching for minimum 6 months and then you can bid where you like based on seniority. The compensation package is pretty good. Pay is base plus flight pay and with a standard 80hr month your looking at about $10,000 US/CDN. They offer base pay (about $3,500 US/CDN) plus housing and transportation while training. Once online you could plan to save about $5000/month with relative ease while enjoying life. Malaysia is a relatively inexpensive place to live. Most everyone speaks English although some not so well. There's great food, night life, good schools, very good road/highway system and all the amenities for a single or family lifestyle. AA also offers ID90 travel on AA and AAx so getting around SE Asia and/or London/Paris is very cheap. The weather is summertime year round - and tropical. Very humid. The company has huge expansion plans -- recently ordering 200 A320's with options for another 100 -- look up Air Asia on PCC. The company genuinely makes a great effort to ensure your entry is smooth and your experience with the company is positive. I'm looking forward to my career here and wish you all good luck with yours https://www.pilotcareercentre.com/Pilot-Life-Story-Blog/224/A320%20DEC%20Captain

[Wolfhunter]

5 hours ago, Critter said:

 

In any case, the writing is definitely on the wall.

Cool, thanks for the update folks. Perhaps in the near future a bunch of us will be parking the trucks... would have been happy to do it sooner!

[DEFCON]

Malcolm - In my opinion, experience develops as a product of exposure to all sorts of 'things' that arise over the long course of a pilot's career. It is not possible to 'earn' that kind of experience in a sim, or classroom.

In most cases experience builds rapidly throughout the early years, but that's only because rookies face a steep learning curve and are therefore very prone to making mistakes. There is a fantastic amount of information that must be absorbed during the formative years, a good deal of which comes while operating a complex piece of machinery in a dynamic 3D environment in real time. While there are many wannabe air carrier pilots, few that set out to succeed prove capable of mastering the art, or at least that's the way it once was.

In the so-called good old days, the industry got to have a fairly good look at you and your capability before you ever got near the right seat of a commercial airliner. Who will ever know for certain, but as a for instance; had the FO of the crashed GermanWings 320 followed the more traditional approach to the right seat, it's a good bet that his weakness would have been exposed long before he got there, but the cadet program allowed this guy to circumvent scrutiny and around 150 people died as a result.

I feel the lack of 'experience' in today's cockpit is the unfortunate product of commercial need and the trend in that direction is increasing across the globe. Without said experience flight safety becomes almost entirely dependent on the machine remaining serviceable throughout the flight as was demonstrated on AF 442 and other mishap flights.          

 

 

[Wolfhunter]

I thought this was cute...

 

So, you want to be an Airline Pilot?

I walked into the interview with a great deal of confidence and enthusiasm. Flying airplanes was my one true passion in this life. This was my big chance to merge my occupation with my love. I would become an airline pilot.

“So you want to be an airline pilot?” the interviewer inquired.

“Yes, sir, more than anything else I have ever wanted,” I replied, realizing I sounded like an anxious adolescent.

“Well, great, welcome aboard,” the airline executive said.

“You mean I’m hired?!” I cheered.

“You bet, we’re glad to have you. Actually, we’ve had trouble finding good pilots to hire,” the exec explained. If I was surprised, it was overshadowed by my joy of reaching my dream.

“Let’s just go over a few points before you sign on the dotted line,” the company man chortled. “We’re going to send you to the world’s most renowned medical center. They’ll spend two days probing your body orifices, draining and analyzing your blood, and administering psychological exams.

They’ll literally take you apart and put you back together. If they find any hint of current or future problems, you’re fired and can find your own ride home.”

“Gee, I think my health is OK,” I nervously choked out. The manager went on, “Good, next we’ll evaluate your flying skills in an aircraft you’ve never been in before. “If we don’t like the way you perform, you’re fired,”

I was confident with my flying, but this guy was making me nervous.

He continued, “Next, if you’re still here, we’ll run you through our training program. If during any time in the next 10 years you decide to leave the company, you’ll have to reimburse us $20,000, or we’ll sue you. Also if you fail to measure up during training, you’re fired.”

The man who had just given me my dream job listed still more hurdles.

“Each time, before we allow you near one of our multimillion dollar aircraft we’ll X-ray your flight bag and luggage, because we don’t trust you. Also we’ll ask you to pass through a magnetometer each time. If you fail to do so, you’ll be arrested and jailed.” 

“When you’ve completed your flight, we’ll have you provide a urine sample, because we don’t trust you to not take drugs. Very soon, we plan to take a blood sample to look for more drugs. “Also if you ever fly with another crew member who may have used drugs or alcohol, you must report to us immediately. If you fail to notice that anyone has used these substances, you’ll be fired, have your license to fly revoked, and be fined $10,000.” 

Our airline flies to many nice cities. Paris, London, Fort Lauderdale, San Diego. You will never get to layover in any of these places until you have 39 years seniority. You will be spending all you time in Newark, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh. If you do get a nice trip, some guy from the training department will take it from you at the last minute. Then we will stick you back on reserve and you will be laying over in Newark

“Every six months, we want you to go back to the medical center for another exam. If they ever find a hint of a problem, your license to fly will be revoked and we’ll fire you. Anytime you see a medical person, you must tell us about it so we can see if you need to be grounded and terminated.

Every six months you will be called in on your days off to play “You Bet Your Job”. You will be paired with another pilot who has never flown in the continental United States. The briefing will start at midnight and you will get in the simulator at 02:00. The simulator will fly like a car with bald tires on slick ice. The simulator will break several times during you tests and require the sleepy repairman several hours to fix while you drink stale coffee from a machine. If you fail any of these tests you will be fired.

Also, we need to examine your driving record, and you must tell us if you have even any minor infractions so we can remove you from the cockpit as soon as possible.”

“At any time, without notice, a special branch of the government will send one of its inspectors to ride in your aircraft. The inspector will demand to see your papers and license; if your papers are not in order, you’ll be removed, fined, terminated, and possibly jailed.”

“If at any time you make an error in judgment or an honest human mistake, you will be terminated, be fined tens of thousands of dollars, and be dragged through months of court proceedings. The government will make sure you never fly again for any airline.”

Several times during the year the FAA will come up with some sort of extra class you have to attend. Security, where we learn to spot guys with diapers on their heads in pilots uniforms. Winter ops, where we learn to not take off with two feet of snow on the wings. Crew Resource Management, where we learn to be sensitive to every one’s feelings. Conflict resolution, where we learn we can’t throw someone off the plane just because they smell like Bin Laden after a year in a cave or because they are screaming obscenities. These classes will all be taken on you days off.

“You will be well out of town most holidays, weekends, and family events—half our pilots are always on the job at any point in time 

Smiling an evil smile now, the airline hirer went on. “Oh, and one last thing to cover. Occasionally, we in management fail to see a trend and screw up royally or the country’s economy falls flat on it’s face. If as a result of one of those events the corporation begins to lose money, you as an employee will be expected to make up the losses from your paycheck. Of course, management will not be held to the same standard.

Oh, and one last thing—if we negotiate pay and work rule concessions from you in the in exchange for a better pension plan, we probably won’t fund that pension plan agreement (unlike the management pension plan and golden parachutes) and will likely have yanked it away from you.” 

“Now sign here,” he pointed, grinning as he handed me a pen.

I faked a sudden nosebleed. Holding my head back and pinching my nostrils, I hurried from his office. When I got to the hall, I began to run. I ran all the way to my car. I figured if I hurried I could still get to the county vocational school before 5:00 and enroll in the industrial welding career program!!

[Innuendo]

If you do get a nice trip, some guy from the training department will take it from you at the last minute. 

Ain't that the truth, had a 48 hour L/O in Osaka with plans for a trip to Kyoto with the whole crew. Walking down the hall to dispatch and see an instructor I knew coming towards me. "What are you doing here?" sez he.  Oh no, I don't want to hear this sez I.  Crew sked had not got in touch, probably knowing I would have objected big time.   I could not even go as the RP as he had two guys on line indoc.

Was I ticked? You bet.  I had built my whole bid around that trip  .

Edited April 29, 2016 by Innuendo

[DEFCON]

Wolfhunter's story is a sad but true rendition of the present day reality.

What was once possibly the greatest and most rewarding profession and career a guy could ever hope to realize has been reduced to some sort of McJob that fewer and fewer apparently see any point in pursuing.

 

 

[J.O.]

Seeking 500 pilots a year, PSA Airlines sweetens the pot

 

PSA Airlines Inc. has announced another strategy to attract more pilots as it now needs to hire 500 per year over the next few years.

 

The Dayton-based company will offer a $20,000 retention bonus to active first officers beginning this month, to be paid in quarterly installments over two years or until they upgrade to captain. PSA also is instituting a $250 monthly allowance for pilots to offset the cost of commuting hotel expenses.

 

This marks the latest hiring strategy of PSA, the only commercial passenger airline headquartered in Ohio and one of the fastest growing in the business. The regional carrier of American Airlines (NYSE: AAL) began offering a $5,000 sign-on bonus for all new pilots hired in 2016.

 

The retention strategy comes as PSA looks to boost employment as its fleet rapidly grows on orders from its parent company. PSA also has an agreement that allows pilots career advancement into American Airlines, another factor contributing to its need to recruit new talent.

 

PSA is headquartered in Dayton with major operations here including 920 local jobs, according to the 2015-2016 DBJ Book of Lists. The company has been growing thanks to an order by its parent company that will mean it operates 150 Bombardier aircraft over the next two years. It currently has 106 Bombardier passenger aircraft in its fleet.

 

The carrier has grown significantly including upping its number of local employees from 600 a few years ago. PSA also has started on a new $14 million maintenance hangar at the Dayton International Airport, which will double the number of aircraft it keeps in Dayton overnight. Last month it held a job fair to fill another 70 jobs to help crew in that hangar.

 

Overall, PSA has nearly 2,400 employees and operates 700 daily flights to 90 destinations. It has flight crew bases in Dayton, Cincinnati, Knoxville, Tenn. and Charlotte, N.C. It also has maintenance facilities in Dayton, Canton, Cincinnati and Charlotte.

 

http://www.bizjournals.com/dayton/news/2016/05/09/seeking-500-pilots-a-year-psa-airlines-sweetens.html

[rudder]

What about just paying wages that reflect the investment that was made to reach the level of qualification that is necessary to fill the job vacancy?

It is great that the pendulum has begun to swing in favour of the prospective pilot employee. More choices.  Several alternatives.

Hopefully things will improve here in Canada as it pertains to entry level wages in CAR705 ops. There is no reason that starting pay should be less than $50,000/yr. A failure to acknowledge this reality will simply mean that the supply chain will dry up as the millennialis pursue more attractive and cost effective career choices.

This ball is in the employers court, not the unions.

[MD2]

On ‎4‎/‎27‎/‎2016 at 1:49 PM, rudder said:

Porter hire DEC....

Porter has not hired DEC in years.

[DEFCON]

How long will it be before the 'pilot shortage' restricts air carriers from operating aircraft with anything with less than 150 seats?

 

      

[rudder]

9 hours ago, MD2 said:

Porter has not hired DEC in years.

Sorry, meant Encore.

[Wolfhunter]

20 hours ago, rudder said:

 There is no reason that starting pay should be less than $50,000/yr. A failure to acknowledge this reality will simply mean that the supply chain will dry up as the millennialis pursue more attractive and cost effective career choices.

This ball is in the employers court, not the unions.

I wonder how the MBA crew will explain all this to their masters. Personally, I won’t crack a book for less than $60K and I have the luxury of not having to. I miss the fun of flying (a bit) but could make it up with the Air Cadet program and will likely do that next year. I came up through that system, think it’s a great program  and would happily do it pro bono.

 

[rudder]

CEO:  I just signed the paperwork for 10 new aircraft at a total cost of $300MM

VP Flt Ops:  I cannot find enough new-hire pilots to staff more aircraft. There is a limited pool available and they are all accepting job offers elsewhere.

VP Labour:  But we are saving $10K per new-hire per year

CEO: So I have revenue generating assets costing me millions that will sit idle and you are bragging about saving thousands?

 

This sounds like an Abbot and Costello skit but it is playing out on many properties. So my guess is that either there will be several VP's that will find themselves unemployed or entry level wages will go up.

[Wolfhunter]

As a final thought, I believe the notion of a shortage is (at present) simply a tool for extracting regulatory concessions. As an aside, my favourite is the deceitful way some companies use (or have used) bogus ads to obtain an LMO and pounce on the TFW thing… yes, we all know who you are and we know that pony is starting to stagger. The poor brute is sweating and panting largely due to letter writing campaigns to the minister by unemployed pilots (he has my resume with your ad and LMO application attached).

 

Imagine a world where airline executives (with 25 years experience) making a lateral move are reduced in salary to $32-$35K… poof, instant shortage of executives. In the long run, I guess there will be a “new entry” shortage but for now, the people who can save you are not interested in being abused and have looked/are looking elsewhere. As the army is fond of saying, “move now over”.

Edited May 11, 2016 by Wolfhunter

[Fido]

42 minutes ago, Wolfhunter said:

Imagine a world where airline executives (with 25 years experience) making a lateral move are reduced in salary to $32-$35K

 

The 'executive' does not have a union seniority list.

[Wolfhunter]

21 minutes ago, Fido said:

 

The 'executive' does not have a union seniority list.

He doesn’t have pilots either…

[Specs]

Read an Interview in ATW with Michael O'Leary (Ryanair) and when asked the question about a pilot shortage his response was that he has 3000 applications for every position.  I've also been hearing the same story about a pilot shortage myself every few years since I was a kid. 

I think Wolfhunter hit the nail on the head - It's easy for companies and the industry to say there is a shortage and use that to extract whatever regulatory concessions they can ( eg duty time limits, TFW's, etc). The reality though is that since globalization and the changes to the North American job market that that has brought, there are fewer options in the domestic job/career market these days for young folks.  Factor in to that that university costs have gone through the roof in the last 10 years which makes pursuit of a flying career a more appealing option for many.  It's flat out easy and cheaper than university.  I seriously can't count how many kids I've met over the past few yrs who did their training in Florida and stepped from there into a career without the years in the boonies.   

[J.O.]

How can you tell when O'Leary is lying? His lips are moving. He needs to say that to continue justifying the indentured service that is a flying job with Ryanair. I'd rather walk.

[Zan Vetter]

I don't think entry level wages are the problem, though they are part of it. Before I started out until after I was too far in to quit, I honestly couldn't have guessed within 50% what the "starting wage" of a pilot was. Actually, to somebody young and driven like I was it didn't matter. Hell, I took a job for $700 a month at once point (traffic patrol/banner towing). I still feel pride for that number though because a.) their offer was $0 and b.) I knew I was going back to float flying in spring and besides that, my goal was much larger.

What attracted me to aviation, and what kept me going through the $700-a-month (and other, slightly but not that much less terrible stages) was the knowledge that ONE DAY I had the opportunity to make $300,000 or more (pre 9-11). I was buying an option on 747 captain pay, not on junior DC-9 first year FO pay and certainly not on what a no-time greenhorn makes flying a C172.

People will endure a lot for a long-dated but great opportunity. I think too much emphasis is being put on what those poor regional FOs make (which needs to rise, sure) and not enough on what the senior airline captain makes. That's what attracts smart people, or at least it worked on me. You woulda drawn a blank stare from me if your sales pitch was "starting pay is $60 grand!" Hey go be a teacher if that revs you up.

[rudder]

1 hour ago, Zan Vetter said:

I don't think entry level wages are the problem, though they are part of it. Before I started out until after I was too far in to quit, I honestly couldn't have guessed within 50% what the "starting wage" of a pilot was. Actually, to somebody young and driven like I was it didn't matter. Hell, I took a job for $700 a month at once point (traffic patrol/banner towing). I still feel pride for that number though because a.) their offer was $0 and b.) I knew I was going back to float flying in spring and besides that, my goal was much larger.

What attracted me to aviation, and what kept me going through the $700-a-month (and other, slightly but not that much less terrible stages) was the knowledge that ONE DAY I had the opportunity to make $300,000 or more (pre 9-11). I was buying an option on 747 captain pay, not on junior DC-9 first year FO pay and certainly not on what a no-time greenhorn makes flying a C172.

People will endure a lot for a long-dated but great opportunity. I think too much emphasis is being put on what those poor regional FOs make (which needs to rise, sure) and not enough on what the senior airline captain makes. That's what attracts smart people, or at least it worked on me. You woulda drawn a blank stare from me if your sales pitch was "starting pay is $60 grand!" Hey go be a teacher if that revs you up.

Millennials don't think the same as baby boomers or Gen X. Take a look around. Conditions on Day 1 do matter. And pay on Day 1 matters because the price of getting to the start gate is significantly higher than it was for previous generations of prospective commercial pilots.

AC will never have a problem filling seats. But other carriers will and already are having problems. It will not get better when there is a race to the bottom for starting pay for positions based in Canada's most expensive cities. Some carriers will not find enough pilots to meet their commercial plan.

[Fido]

14 minutes ago, rudder said:

a race to the bottom

Cliche's are so nice.