Pilot Shortage Is Here

[Wolfhunter]

8 hours ago, Kip Powick said:

I don't think you will find that scenario will fly ....anywhere....

Cool, DEC will work just fine then; how will they feel about Ramjet doing that? 

But since you asked, yes, that's my premiss. Bottom of the pay scale means doing something else.... and that's just A OK with me now. If the industry is happy, who am I to mess with happy campers. BTW, Red Seal tradesmen mostly think we're crazy... none that I have run this by would go back to apprentice wages or suggest it as a reasonable idea in the event of a move. They would do something else if it paid better.... and just like that, poof, we're short of experienced multi ticket welders because they're driving Haul Trucks.

Edited November 30, 2018 by Wolfhunter

[DEFCON]

Is there a contractually defined point where a currently restricted right seater is allowed to upgrade and displace a DEC?

 

 

[rudder]

The pilot shortage is here. And it is only going to get worse.

Experience levels for entry level positions at many Part 705 carriers are the lowest in history. Several Part 705 operators are offering DEC positions due to lack of qualified internal upgrade candidates. Part 703/704 operators are struggling to staff their operations. Some will eventually shrink or disappear. Flying schools/colleges cannot attract or retain enough instructors to meet student pilot demand. And it is only going to get worse over time.

A few 705 operators have tried to get out ahead of the shortage by setting up cadet or partnership programs. But his is just a band aid not a sustainable long term solution at a point where there are not enough puppies coming out of the puppy mill (with multiple potential employers competing to secure this dwindling resource). Eventually the game of musical chairs will end and  some of these carriers will have to re-examine their commercial plan in light of inability to staff.

Somehow Canada (or at least CDN pilot employers) have convinced themselves that they are immune to the law of supply and demand and can set the wage equilibrium rather than letting the market influence that dynamic. That arrogance and the cost of entry (vs compensation) has contributed to the lack of subscription and will be exacerbated by the last wave of baby boomer retirements.

A handful of DEC opportunities filled by returning expats will not cure this problem. 

 

 

Edited December 1, 2018 by rudder

[Guest]

On ‎11‎/‎30‎/‎2018 at 9:49 AM, blues deville said:

For what it’s worth expats are returning to Canada and be hired as DEC’s. And there may be more DEC positions ahead in our airline industry as many recent new hires do not have the experience or qualifications to upgrade. 

At what wage level

[blues deville]

As far as I know whatever is in their collective agreement for first year Captain. No one is offering discounted payscales.

[Guest]

16 minutes ago, blues deville said:

As far as I know whatever is in their collective agreement for first year Captain. No one is offering discounted payscales.

Thanks, I was just curious as to if they were able to negotiate a premium salary considering the shortage but of course the Union Contract rules.

[Trader]

Sunwing has an upgrade failure rate closing in on 50%. They have smartened up and begun interviewing experienced captains, hiring them as FO's with the knowledge that they will upgrade quickly. The last several ground schools those hires have been transferred directly into the left seat during initial training. FO's will upgrade when their experience allows

Flair, within its CBA, has the ability to hire DEC's and has begun that. Again, FO's will upgrade when hours, experience and, most importantly, ability allow.

If a company can remain nimble and have the ability to hire pilots in the seat they require they will find candidates. The biggest danger, in my opinion, is having a situation where you upgrade a relatively inexperienced FO into the left seat and have them fly with a very inexperienced FO. That is the situation that will soon rear its head for many companies and is the one that has to be avoided.

The problem is compounded by, dare I say it, the millennial attitude that they deserve that left seat regardless of experience or, in some cases, performance.

One other aspect to dealing with this training. Most expat pilots on this forum will likely agree that the "Command Course" and its requirements at airlines outside Canada are rigorous and effective. Airlines in Canada will have to adopt the same and that takes time and money.

[J.O.]

3 hours ago, Trader said:

The biggest danger, in my opinion, is having a situation where you upgrade a relatively inexperienced FO into the left seat and have them fly with a very inexperienced FO. That is the situation that will soon rear its head for many companies and is the one that has to be avoided.

It’s already happening in some places. 

[blues deville]

This is a first step in the right direction. Cost of pilot training has always been an issue. My beautiful   ‘71 Les Paul Deluxe Gold Top and Marshall stack covered the end of my CPL and night rating. I wish I had all that gear back again!

https://www.skiesmag.com/news/atac-pushes-for-student-pilot-financing/?utm_source=skies-daily-news-top-story&utm_campaign=skies-daily-news&utm_medium=email&utm_term=top-story&utm_content=V1

[boestar]

I got a student load for the initial training but that only covered my PPL.  Couldnt get the remainder for the CPL.

 

[mrlupin]

Article on 17 "Great Careers in Demand"

https://www.trade-schools.net/ca/articles/careers-in-demand.asp

11. Aircraft Pilot

Join the ranks of air pilots in Canada who enjoy some of the highest-paying, in-demand jobs in the country. As of 2014, the median age of pilots was 44 years old. Since many workers retire by the age of 60, it's expected that a number of jobs will soon become available. From 2015 to 2024, up to 3,800 positions may not get filled due to a lack of skilled workers.² (That estimate includes pilots as well as air traffic, marine, and railway controllers.)

There are many opportunities to work as a pilot in Canada. Many pilots work for small, medium, and large commercial airlines flying domestically and internationally. Others choose to work as helicopter pilots. And some work as bush pilots, transporting people and delivering goods to Canada's most remote locations. So, aside from private and commercial airlines, there are also opportunities available in the adventure travel, mining, logging, firefighting, and medical sectors.

(Note that, when looking at total job openings, pilots are categorized in a larger air transportation occupational group that includes engineers and officers from the marine and rail sectors.)

• Total job openings—11,400
• Highest-demand provinces and territories—BC, Manitoba, New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nunavut, Quebec, and the Yukon
• Median hourly wage—$37
• Highest-paying provinces and territories—Quebec, Alberta, Manitoba, and Ontario
• Typical entry-level education—Completion of pilot training; must also obtain appropriate pilot licensing

 

I don't know how accurate it is but 37$ as a median wage.... Yikes. Considering pilots are usually paid by flying hour and do not fly 160hrs/month that's quite low...

Edited December 10, 2018 by mrlupin
Emphasis

[mrlupin]

From another site but I suspect it's the same data...

 

[boestar]

im willing to bet that is annualized not actual

37/hr is about $74,000 /yr

Edited December 10, 2018 by boestar

[blues deville]

$5 difference between pipefitter and psychologist? What country and currency?

Edited December 10, 2018 by blues deville

[Wolfhunter]

Nurses are paid for the entire shift whether you see them or not; if they were only paid when they had surgical gloves on, they would be working at the vets office. How easy is this, a child in grade 4 with a hand held calculator can figure it out...

Take a red seal welder who moves to Alberta and offer him apprentice wages, you will find him driving haul trucks for more money. Good Lord, where did the MBA crew get their MBAs, people act as if a pilot shortage is mysterious in some way, there was no other possible outcome. Same with the RCAF who actually are experiencing a shortage that they can't out train, the civilian world will get there pretty quick too. You are already poaching instructors for operational flying and need to look at other options like retirees. I have a class4 instructor rating but it's simply not worth the bother to renew it.... the reason I stop is the same reason I don't start which begs a simple MBA question, is lock point sustainable? Raise the nose and you stall, lower the nose and and you crash.

MBA physics question... in the aerodynamic lock point scenario (from above), If the ground rises faster than wages what do you think will happen? Ya, I know, your first thought was blasting crews ahead of the flight path right?

In practice, your scenario looks something like this but arrival at the crash site will take a bit longer...

 

Edited December 10, 2018 by Wolfhunter

[Guest]

1 hour ago, boestar said:

im willing to bet that is annualized not actual

37/hr is about $74,000 /yr

https://www.payscale.com/research/CA/Job=Commercial_Pilot/Salary

https://www.glassdoor.ca/Salary/Air-Canada-Pilot-Salaries-E42672_D_KO11,16.htm

[rudder]

Simple question - if you invest $80-120,000 in education and vocational training, how much would you expect to earn in the first 5 years in your trade/profession?

Certainly not what the majority of commercial carriers in Canada are offering.

Airlines are facing an uphill battle convincing the millennial generation that living out of a suitcase and flying round the clock is a glamorous endeavour. Adding insulting entry level pay is simply exacerbating the deficiency in subscription to commercial piloting as a worthwhile career choice.

[DEFCON]

"Simple question - if you invest $80-120,000 in education and vocational training, how much would you expect to earn in the first 5 years in your trade/profession?"

Considering the vast majority of new hires are at least five years short on real world experience when they climb in the right seat of an airliner today, an ATP isn't even required, and the relative educational expenses incurred to get a CPL aren't any greater now than they were thirty, or more years ago; what is 'fair' compensation?

 

 

 

 

  

  

 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, DEFCON said:

"Simple question - if you invest $80-120,000 in education and vocational training, how much would you expect to earn in the first 5 years in your trade/profession?"

Considering the vast majority of new hires are at least five years short on real world experience when they climb in the right seat of an airliner today, an ATP isn't even required, and the relative educational expenses incurred to get a CPL aren't any greater now than they were thirty, or more years ago; what is 'fair' compensation?

 

 

 

 

  

  

 

and if you invest the same in becoming a RN with a BA and a BSC?  How about a family doctor?  Tired of hearing how badly pilots are treated when they first start out, how about what some earn 15 years later?  …….  For those who think the cost vs returns is not good enough, then fill your bag and chase the jobs that you think will return more in $$$$$ and of course satisfaction.

[Wolfhunter]

2 hours ago, Malcolm said:

For those who think the cost vs returns is not good enough, then fill your bag and chase the jobs that you think will return more in $$$$$ and of course satisfaction.

That's exactly what is happening, hence the title of the thread.

Perversely, as DEFCON has observed above, some operators are now actually paying more for what they are getting than what they are getting is worth when compared to what they previously got at the same price... cool eh?  That's the nature of the spiral, no doubt these operators believe they have effectively been raising pilot wages by paying the same salary for less experience. But beware the vortex, that’s exactly the mindset that got us here in the first place and stands as the reason others have taken your advice and moved on. You end up eliminating the very people you need as a short term stop loss effort.... they go truck driving.

If the RCAF model holds true, what starts as a FO supply side problem quickly becomes a Capt retention problem as mentors become a thing of value across the board (as experience levels plummet) and operators who previously scoffed at the idea compete for their affections. The noose begins to tighten as soon as the retention side falters (by pilfering or demographics) and you find yourself with low experience FOs that you can't use because none of them are upgradeable. All of your experience is then thrown into operations and this causes the supply side crash at the exact time you thought you had too many FOs (that you couldn't use anyway). At that point, you can't out train the deficit.  I wasn't sure I would get to watch it a second time but I think it's coming.  

Edited December 11, 2018 by Wolfhunter

[Guest]

Woldhunter, then you need to also consider the return for the "real essential services" MOST AVIATION IS NOT IN THAT CATEGORY!.  I target instead:

military, health services, Search and rescue , police, firefighters, teachers, carpenters, butchers, bakers  etc and the list goes on from there. What will happen if the number of pilots goes down? So less vacations by air (big deal). Provision of essential services to the North (not likely to suffer), fewer departures each day between Key Cities, demise of low and ultra low cost,  so what?.   Should we be worried that Armageddon is near when it comes to pilot shortage, no at least not in my opinion.  Ducking now.

 

[J.O.]

13 hours ago, Malcolm said:

Woldhunter, then you need to also consider the return for the "real essential services" MOST AVIATION IS NOT IN THAT CATEGORY!.  I target instead:

military, health services, Search and rescue , police, firefighters, teachers, carpenters, butchers, bakers  etc and the list goes on from there. What will happen if the number of pilots goes down? So less vacations by air (big deal). Provision of essential services to the North (not likely to suffer), fewer departures each day between Key Cities, demise of low and ultra low cost,  so what?.   Should we be worried that Armageddon is near when it comes to pilot shortage, no at least not in my opinion.  Ducking now.

 

No need to duck Malcolm, but this is a tad naive, IMHO. Aviation services are woven deeply into the fabric (and economy) of much of the world today. Take it away and all of a sudden a great many people who have little to do with aviation are nonetheless out of work.

[Guest]

40 minutes ago, J.O. said:

No need to duck Malcolm, but this is a tad naive, IMHO. Aviation services are woven deeply into the fabric (and economy) of much of the world today. Take it away and all of a sudden a great many people who have little to do with aviation are nonetheless out of work.

You are of course right about a ripple down effect but not Armageddon.  Not a supporter of Saudi but they appear to be heading down a path that might solve their pilot shortage. Maybe we could redirect Quebec's increased equalization money to fund such a venture here in Canada.

Quote

 General Aviation

• Manufacturers & Airframes
• Diamond wins 60-unit order from Saudi training school SNCA

Diamond wins 60-unit order from Saudi training school SNCA

• 11 December, 2018
• SOURCE: Flight International
• BY: Kate Sarsfield
• Dubai

Diamond has secured an order from Saudi National Company of Aviation (SNCA) for up to 60 single-engined DA40 NGs and twin-engined DA42-VIs, with the first examples scheduled to arrive at a new training facility in February 2019.

The deal comes a year after SNCA signed a partnership with Canada's CAE to create a 40,000sqm (431,000sq ft) pilot training facility in Dammam, Saudi Arabia.

Anthony Miller, global business development director for SNCA describes the order as "one of the largest in the history of aviation academies in Saudi Arabia, and perhaps the Middle East".

 

He says the new centre will supply locally trained pilots to the region’s growing airlines "which are facing a shortfall of some 64,000 flightcrew".

Diamond Aircraft

"We are determined to provide the aviation industry with highly qualified male and female pilots that are able to advance within the aviation industry and serve as an integral tool for development in the region," notes Miller.

The academy plans to admit up to 400 cadets a year, with the first students scheduled to be inducted in September 2019.

A dozen aircraft will be shipped between February and September – 10 DA40s and two DA42s – and SNCA will add the remaining examples "over a five-year period", says Miller.

The DA40 NG and the DA42-VI are powered by Austro Engine AE300 engines and equipped with Garmin G1000 NXi flightdecks.

Diamond says it plans to establish a service centre at the Dammam site to support SNCA's fleet as well as the growing inventory of DA-prefixed aircraft in the Middle East.

 

[blues deville]

Signing bonuses for pilots getting bigger in US. 

http://www.transstates.net/careers/pilot_careers/Pages/default.aspx/

[rudder]

I wonder if the experience level of the flight crew on ET302 will raise any red flags in Canada?

Probably not.