Pilot Shortage Is Here

[Zan Vetter]

LOL. I’d guess more like 1/20.

[DEFCON]

"Certainly these basic qualities are still an essential part of what makes a good pilot, but aircraft have changed massively, so has the airspace environment, the means of navigation, and the means of traffic separation and flow management. Expectations of safety standards are far higher than they used to be, and young recruits to the piloting profession have been raised and educated in a different era."

Yes, the technology is great, but it's not likely to ever be foolproof. The statement sounds like the sort the management side of the industry would produce. It comes across as an excuse for failing to ensure an adequate supply of real pilots would be available to crew future aircraft. Anything to protect the flow of profit; risk and uncertainty aren't part of the equation. 

 

 

Edited May 9, 2018 by DEFCON

[Guest]

Quote

US is facing a serious shortage of airline pilots July 12, 2018 6.23am EDT   US is facing a serious shortage of airline pilots July 12, 2018 6.23am EDT

US is facing a serious shortage of airline pilots July 12, 2018 6.23am EDT

 

For many, the job of a pilot has lost its luster. Emilian Danaila/shutterstock.com

The US is facing a serious shortage of airline pilots

July 12, 2018 6.23am EDT

Peter Gall

Author

1. Peter Gall

   Teaching Assistant Professor of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, West Virginia University

Disclosure statement

Peter Gall is on extended leave from American Airlines.

Partners

West Virginia University provides funding as a member of The Conversation US.

View all partners

Republish this article

Republish our articles for free, online or in print, under Creative Commons licence.

• Email
• Twitter15
• Facebook76
• LinkedIn
• WhatsApp
• Messenger
• Print

The national security of the U.S. relies on a healthy airline industry. That requires modern reliable airplanes – and highly skilled pilots to operate them.

However, the U.S. has a shortage of pilots right now, particularly at the regional airline levels.

According to the Federal Aviation Administration, there were about 827,000 pilots in the U.S. in 1987. Over the last three decades, that number has decreased by 30 percent.

Meanwhile, during this time period, there has been a tremendous increase in the demand for air travel. The International Air Transport Association predicts that, over the next 20 years, air travel will double.

This is a classic case of low supply and high demand. This mismatch has created a perfect storm that could wreak havoc on the U.S. airline industry over the next decade. The somber news is this shortage is going to get much worse.

I have not only studied and researched the airline industry since 1978, but I also was a pilot for 19 years, before going back to academia in 2006.

Industry changes

In the 1970s, when most of today’s airline pilots like myself were growing up, piloting for an airline was considered a prestigious career. The job offered not only high salaries and nice schedules with many days off, but also a respected position in society. In the early 1990s, pilot salaries approached US$300,000 in today’s dollars for some international pilots.

What’s more, during this time, the military had a steady and consistent demand for pilots. A young aspiring aviator could go into the military to receive all of his or her flight training. Once these pilots had fulfilled their military commitment, they were almost guaranteed a good job flying for a major airline.

Today, this is no longer the case. The career of the airline pilot has lost its luster.

This is due in part to deregulation. The 1978 Airline Deregulation Act kicked off the era of the low-cost carrier. As a result, airlines such as Pan-Am went out of business.

Then, the 9/11 attacks left the airlines in poor financial condition. Five of the six major legacy airlines in the U.S. declared bankruptcy: US Airways, Delta, Northwest, United and American Airlines. I clearly recall a day a couple weeks after 9/11, when one of my flights, from Washington D.C. to Orlando, Florida, boarded just one passenger.

From my own experience, I can attest to many pilots like myself who were forced to vacate their captain position and go back to first officer, resulting in their pay dropping from roughly $190,000 per year to $75,000 per year.

Fewer new pilots

Meanwhile, the number of pilots supplied by the military has dwindled. Much of this is due to the use of unmanned aerial vehicles.

In the 80s, roughly two-thirds of airline pilots were ex-military. Recently, that percentage has dropped to less than one-third. The Navy predicts a 10 percent pilot shortage in 2020, while the Air Force predicts its own 1,000-pilot shortage by 2022.

This means many young aspiring aviators now have to pay for their own flight training. That can be very costly, easily exceeding $100,000, especially in light of an uncertain future. Many are simply unwilling to take the risk. This effect was aggravated by the Great Recession.

In 2009, Congress changed the mandatory retirement age for airline pilots from 60 to 65. In my view, this didn’t solve the problem, but merely kicked the can down the road.

A 2016 report by Boeing shows that 42 percent of the pilots currently flying for the major airlines in the U.S. will reach their mandatory retirement age of 65 in the next 10 years.

Meanwhile, this move crippled the career advancements of the more junior, younger pilots. That’s caused many of them – including myself – to seek a more stable career.

If that’s not enough, there have been significant changes in the work and rest rules for airline pilots. After the Colgan crash near Buffalo in 2009, Congress changed the pilot experience requirements for the airlines. Newly hired pilots must now have a certificate which requires a minimum of 1,500 hours of flight time. Prior to this law being passed, pilots could fly for an airline with a minimum of 250 flight hours.

Growing demand

The other side of the shortage problem is that demand for well-trained pilots is actually increasing. The greatest demand is in Asia and the Pacific regions.

Manufacturers such as Boeing and Airbus are delivering more and more airplanes and plan to continue to do so over the next 20 years.

Congress also changed the duty time rules in 2010 to mitigate pilot fatigue issues. This change meant airlines had to increase their pilot staffing by 5 to 8 percent in order to cover the same schedule. In other words, they need to hire even more qualified pilots.

The U.S. major airlines are not yet directly experiencing the pilot shortage. But smaller regional airlines are experiencing this firsthand. Their schedules have been reduced and some, such as Republic, have been forced into bankruptcy as a result of inadequate staffing.

The industry has taken a few steps to address this problem. Regional airlines now offer much higher pay and even signing bonuses. Also, there have been some minor amendments to the 1,500-hour rule. Pilots can now receive their certificate in fewer than 1,500 hours if training takes place at certain flight schools. There’s even talk of extending the retirement age again to 67.

In my view, these steps alone will not solve this problem. Airlines need to consider forming their own pipeline. The airlines will need to begin recruiting and training their own pilot candidates. For example, in April, American Airlines, where I used to work, announced the American Airlines Cadet Academy, with the intent of recruiting the next generation of pilots.

For many, the job of a pilot has lost its luster. Emilian Danaila/shutterstock.com

 

 

[boestar]

Gee I wonder why.  The race to the bottom.  Pilot use to be a great and respected position.   Now pilots are treated no better than bus drivers.

The glory days are over.

[blues deville]

A brief overview but still an interesting article by the author/assistant prof.

I think Canada’s smaller carriers are already suffering from the same situation with a serious shortage of pilots.

AC are hiring pilots now in numbers probably not seen since the 70’s. Lots of qualified 737 pilots are filling seats of new Boeings arriving monthly. And next year it will be A220’s arriving at the same rates. Sunwing is recruiting close to triple digit for their upcoming winter. Porter will now hire new pilots with less than 1000 hours.

And if we’re very, very quiet, the Feds might just release their new Flight Duty Time rules which everyone knows will only increase the required number of pilots needed in Canada. 

And forget about pilots. Who will be maintaining the aircraft? Who wants to invest their time and money to work in heavily regulated job starting out on midnight shifts?

Hopefully we never go to war again but I think the demand for pilots and engineers may only be solved by some sort of  civilian version of the training program used to feed the war effort in Europe during WWII such as the BCATP. (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Commonwealth_Air_Training_Plan)

Edited July 13, 2018 by blues deville

[boestar]

I have never seen so much advertising for AME's and Pilots.  The shortage is real....until the next down turn.

[DEFCON]

Maybe it's time to reduce the medical aspects of licencing?

IMO, the applicants vision should be checked and maybe an EKG performed once a year, but the rest of the process seems largely useless and could easily be abandoned without any measurable consequence to safety.

Take a guy that's had a mild heart attack for example. To maintain his licence, TC requires the post event applicant to reduce his LDL-C level to a value of approximately 1.75, which is substantially below the bottom rung of the so-called 'normal range'. In fact, 1.75 is an arbitrary value that guarantees absolutely nothing in the way of improved health, or overall outcomes.

Ironically, even though the authorities feel LDL-C level is a very important consideration in the post attack period, it is not checked as part of the normal aviation medical investigation.

This tells us the system would prefer to take a wait & see approach when it comes to a pilot's cardiac health than acting proactively and 'possibly' preventing the loss of licence privileges, or even the death of the pilot.

In my mind, the system should either conduct medical evaluations that make sense, or get out of the way and let chance decide the licencee's future.

  

  

 

[blues deville]

Spend some time sitting in any US airport terminal and watch flight crews stroll by to and from their gates. I’d say on average that 50% haven’t been able to button up their jackets for several years and I doubt anywhere near a 1.75 LDL-C level. 

Edited July 15, 2018 by blues deville

[GTFA]

We need to focus on the people who care about getting the right people into the positions of pilot and AME. The travelling public, the airline executive office, the College of Professional Pilots of Canada. The industry needs to realize the critical nature and therefor value of any person who puts in any "Touch-Time" on aircraft that effects safety of operations.

[QFE]

Pilot shortage problem solved.

Saudia announced women are now allowed to be trained as pilots!

[conehead]

3 hours ago, QFE said:

Pilot shortage problem solved.

Saudia announced women are now allowed to be trained as pilots!

Wait... they just learned how to drive!

[Guest]

Quote

Airlines to need 635,000 new pilots over next 20 years: Boeing

written by australianaviation.com.au July 24, 2018

sia file image of a pilot in the flight deck. (Boeing)

Boeing says the commercial airline industry will require 635,000 new pilots over the next 20 years in response to a doubling of the fleet and record demand for air travel.

The figure was included in Boeing’s 2018-2037 Boeing Pilot and Technician Outlook published at EAA AirVenture Oshkosh on Monday (US time).

It is down slightly from the forecast of 637,000 new commercial airline pilots contained in the 2017-2036 outlook.

Boeing noted in its Business Environment Update report for 2018 there were currently 295,000 active commercial pilots around the world.

More broadly, the 2018-2037 Pilot and Technician Outlook also forecast the need for 96,000 business aviation pilots and 59,000 civil helicopter pilots over the next two decades. It is the first time the Boeing report has offered a view on these two sectors.

In total, Boeing is projecting demand for 790,000 pilots between now and 2037, which it says “represents double the current workforce and the most significant demand in the outlook’s nine-year history”.

“Despite strong global air traffic growth, the aviation industry continues to face a pilot labor supply challenge, raising concern about the existence of a global pilot shortage in the near-term,” Boeing Global Services vice president of training and professional services Keith Cooper said in a statement.

“An emphasis on developing the next generation of pilots is key to help mitigate this.

“With a network of training campuses and relationships with flight schools around the globe, Boeing partners with customers, governments and educational institutions to help ensure the market is ready to meet this significant pilot demand.”

The Boeing Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) for 2018-2037 revised upwards the forecast for new commercial aircraft deliveries over the next two decades by 4.1 per cent to 42,730 aircraft.

The commercial aviation fleet was expected to grow to 48,540 aircraft by 2037, from 24,400 aircraft currently in service.

Boeing’s pilot forecast for 2018-2037. (Boeing)

Technician outlook for commercial sector reduced

Meanwhile, the latest Outlook has lowered its forecasts for commercial maintenance technicians by four per cent to 622,000, from 648,000 a year ago.

Boeing said in a statement the reduction was “primarily due to longer maintenance intervals for new aircraft”.

“As new generation airplanes become more prominent in the global fleet, advances in airplane technology will drive an increased need for technicians skilled in avionics, composites, and digital troubleshooting,” Boeing said.

“Mobile and distance learning solutions are becoming increasingly popular as a flexible alternative to traditional classroom instruction, and new technologies such as augmented reality are being tested as a way to improve engagement and knowledge retention.

“As airlines continually invest to improve the quality and efficiency of their operations, new training curriculums and methodologies will need to be adopted to keep pace with innovation.”

Boeing’s technician forecast for 2018-2037. (Boeing)

New business models to spur demand for commercial cabin crew

The report also estimated there would be 858,000 new commercial airline cabin crew members needed over the next 20 years, up 2.3 per cent from the forecast of 839,000 a year ago.

“As airlines continue to refine business models and personalize offerings to specific market segments, additional demand for cabin crew will result from denser seat configurations and multiple cabin configurations,” Boeing said.

Boeing’s cabin crew forecast for 2018-2037. (Boeing)

Asia Pacific makes up biggest region for demand

Asia Pacific represented the largest source of demand with 31 per cent of all new pilots, 34.1 per cent of all technicians and 36.1 per cent of all cabin crew to be recruited in the region between now and 2037.

The strong demand in the Asia Pacific was, in part, being met by qualified pilots from outside the region, attracted by the relatively higher wages and conditions on offer.

Also, Asia Pacific airlines were sending pilots to overseas aviation schools in Australia, Europe, the United States and elsewhere to gain their qualifications while establishing locally-based flight schools as part of efforts to boost aviation training capacity to meet the expected demand.

Australian carriers working on pilot recruitment

The Boeing Business Environment Update said the expected doubling of the global fleet, coupled with the airline industry experiencing its 10th year of above average air travel growth, has resulted in an “unprecedented demand for new pilots”.

The pilot labor supply has continued to tighten amidst strong global air traffic growth, leading to staffing challenges for airlines around the world,” Boeing said.

“Impacts ranging from flight cancellations to route eliminations and even bankruptcy filings have been cited.”

Locally, Qantas was due to announce the location for its proposed pilot training academy by the end of September.

Nine regional locations have been shortlisted to host the facility, which Qantas has said previously it was investing $20 million to establish.

The school is scheduled to open its doors in 2019 and would initially train about 100 pilots a year for direct entry cadets joining the Qantas Group, including Jetstar and QantasLink.

Looking further ahead, the company has previously indicated this could grow to 500 pilots a year on a fee for service basis depending on demand from other parts of the industry.

Qantas Group pilot academy executive manager Wes Nobelius said in June a second academy was also being considered.

“We think there could be enough demand from the broader industry for us to train up to 500 pilots a year, and to do that we’re likely to need two separate academies because of the practical realities of trying to do that much training in a single location,” Nobelius said.

“Training on this scale represents a commercial opportunity for Qantas but it’s also about contributing to a talent pipeline that we rely on for more senior pilots down the track.

“These graduates might fly for other airlines, join the defence force or be part of services like the Royal Flying Doctors.”

Qantas pilots. (Duncan Killick/Qantas)

Meanwhile, Virgin Australia’s 2019 pilot cadetship program, conducted by Flight Training Adelaide in South Australia, would feature two ab initio courses starting in January and July 2019, the airline said in May.

Further, the airline was targeting an equal intake of males and females for its 54-week pilot cadetship program, as part of efforts to broaden the pool of available aviators for the next generation.

Estimates put the number of female pilots around the world at about three per cent.

Virgin Australia pilot cadets and cabin crew at Flight Training Adelaide. (Virgin Australia)

Recently, Regional Express (Rex) publicly expressed its concerns over the impact of the global pilot shortage on its operations.

The airline said Australia was not spared from what it described as a global pilot shortage, with regional aviation the hardest hit as larger carriers actively recruited from this sector.

“Because of the critical pilot shortage, Rex is not able to have its usual contingent of stand-by pilots rostered for duty,” the airline said in what it described as an “open letter to all communities in the Rex network” on July 13.

“Consequently, any last-minute sick leave may result in flights being cancelled or combined with other routes.”

“Rex apologises for all past and potential future disruption to services throughout the network as a result of the industry-wide global pilot shortage.”

A Regional Express (Rex) Saab 340 aircraft.

Boeing Global Services is a recently-formed arm of the aerospace giant that brings together its previously separate aerospace and defence services in supply chain management, engineering, modifications and maintenance, digital analytics and training. It is the company’s third business unit alongside Commercial Airplanes and Defence, Space and Security.  http://australianaviation.com.au/2018/07/airlines-to-need-635000-new-pilots-over-next-20-years-boeing/

 

[rudder]

If the airlines do not go into high schools NOW with offers of subsidized training and guaranteed employment (subject to successful completion of flight training) then planes will be collecting dust in 5-10 years,

Shocking to see the abominable airline entry level compensation rates in Canada. No wonder many millennials are disinterested in a commercial flying career.

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, rudder said:

If the airlines do not go into high schools NOW with offers of subsidized training and guaranteed employment (subject to successful completion of flight training) then planes will be collecting dust in 5-10 years,

Shocking to see the abominable airline entry level compensation rates in Canada. No wonder many millennials are disinterested in a commercial flying career.

On the other hand, folks need to understand the long term pay back for pilots.  Of course the following may be considered to be biased but $$$$ do talk.

http://iflycoast.com/airline-pilots-return-on-investment/

[rudder]

1 hour ago, Malcolm said:

On the other hand, folks need to understand the long term pay back for pilots.  Of course the following may be considered to be biased but $$$$ do talk.

http://iflycoast.com/airline-pilots-return-on-investment/

I estimate that my career earnings for flying commercially will be around $5 million. That is in exchange for an initial training investment decades ago of approximately $10,000. So using the articles math my ROI is 500:1. Those entering the aviation mainstream now will have potential career earnings in excess of $10 million (based on an AC career earnings stream choosing to upgrade at earliest opportunity) albeit with a significantly higher initial training investment. Perhaps their ROI will be closer to 100:1.

None of that math solves the obvious lack of supply of future commercial pilots. Some cannot afford the $100k initial outlay. Some are not interested in starting pay of $36-48k and then going back to $55k at airlines such as AC. The road to a six figure income flying airplanes in Canada can be a very long one vs the US where second year pay at the airlines is comfortably in the six figure range. Some are not interested in the flying lifestyle (nights/weekends/holidays) and living out of a suitcase.

Therefore, it is incumbent upon those employers who are dependant upon the pilot supply chain to stimulate interest such that they will not find themselves without enough warm breathing bodies to operate their assets that are worth billions of $$. And in Canada, there is already an inability to increase entry level supply as there is a growing shortage of flying school instructors.

Now is the time to plot solutions. Not when the pilot supply crisis manifests itself.

 

Edited July 25, 2018 by rudder

[rudder]

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/pilot-shortage-spurs-hiring-spree-1533720602

[rudder]

BUSINESS

Facing a Critical Pilot Shortage, Airlines Scramble to Hire New Pilots

Anticipating a wave of retirements, airlines are increasing salaries and benefits to attract and replenish staff

Tens of thousands of pilots are set to retire in the coming years, prompting a scramble among airlines.PHOTO: EPA/SHUTTERSTOCK

SHARE

 

• 
•  
• 
•  
• 
•  
• 

 

By

 

Robert Wall in London and 

Andrew Tangel in Chicago

Aug. 8, 2018 5:30 a.m. ET

Airlines are boosting salaries and setting up training centers to combat what is projected to be one of the biggest-ever pilot shortfalls.

The dearth of pilots has long been forecast, but it is only now that airlines are being forced to act.Boeing Co. estimates that airlines around the world will need to recruit 635,000 pilots over the next two decades to fly the record number of planes being built and to replace the thousands of aviators expected to retire during that span.

“This is one of the largest hiring cycles for airline pilots” in history, said Tim Canoll, president of the Air Line Pilots Association, International, which represents around 60,000 pilots in the U.S. and Canada.

Following the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks in the U.S. and during the 2008 financial crisis, the aviation industry experienced a downturn and airlines consolidated. That made cockpit-crew jobs scarce and pay raises rare.

ADVERTISEMENT

 

In recent years, travel has picked up, but the bench of available pilots hasn’t expanded enough to keep pace.

Some smaller airlines in the U.S. have had to scrap flights because they lack staff.

“There are simply too few pilots to operate all of today’s routes and with the coming wave of retirements, the situation will reach crisis levels soon,” said Faye Malarkey Black, president of the Regional Airline Association. 

ADVERTISEMENT

 

Some of her association’s members, who generally operate short-haul flights for major carriers, have had to ground flights because they can’t find pilots to cover sick colleagues or to fly spare aircraft. That, she added, has led carriers to stop serving some markets. 

In response, airlines are now taking measures to address the problem by investing in training facilities and recruiting programs, and by offering to subsidize education costs for prospective pilots. Companies are spending hundreds of millions of dollars to boost pay and benefits, and airlines in the U.S. and Europe are luring back a generation of flight officers who had decamped to the Middle East and Asia.

“No pilot in their right mind would leave the U.S. for a job in the Middle East right now,” said Scott Stewart, 37, citing the strong U.S. labor market for pilots. Mr. Stewart left the U.S. in 2010 to fly for Dubai-based Emirates Airline. He returned last year and now works for Delta Air Lines Inc.

ADVERTISEMENT

 

For decades, airlines tapped retiring military pilots to fill their cockpits but cuts in the size of the armed forces have shrunk that pipeline. Today, the competition for commercial pilots is so hot, the military is struggling with shortages of its own.

The U.S. Air Force is about 2,000 pilots short, Air Force chief of staff Gen. David Goldfein told Congress recently. The U.S. “does not produce enough pilots to adequately service commercial business and military aviation,” he said. 

That has made pilots a pricey commodity. Pay for regional-airline pilots, often an entry-level position, has risen to about $50,000 a year, including bonuses, up from $30,000 in early 2016, said Mr. Canoll, president of the pilots union.

ADVERTISEMENT

 

American Airlines Group Inc. last year lifted pilot and flight-attendant pay and benefits at a cost of $230 million in 2017 and $350 million in both 2018 and 2019. The raises follow 2016 salary increases won by pilots at Delta and budget carrierSouthwest Airlines Co.

The higher pay is aimed at attracting enough pilots to replace those about to retire. American said it estimates that 75% of its approximately 15,000 pilots will retire over the next 15 years.

Delta expects about half of its more than 14,000 pilots to reach the federal mandatory retirement age of 65 in the next decade. The airline said it plans to work with various universities to beef up recruiting as it moves to hire more than 8,000 pilots in coming years.

“This is the best the industry has been in my entire career,” said 20-year industry veteran Bill Krupp, now flying MD-88 planes for Delta. He recently returned to the U.S. after spending years flying in the Middle East. He left to work overseas in 2005 after his U.S. airline employer went bust.

United Continental Holdings Inc.wouldn’t address how many pilots were set to depart in coming years, but said it had taken steps to bolster a recruiting pipeline of new pilots from regional carriers. It added that the prospect of an eventual job with United could help its feeder carriers lure new recruits. 

Airlines also are revamping benefits to retain staff. Endeavor Air, a regional arm of Delta, has converted annual retention bonuses it was offering into higher base pay, providing greater security as the money won’t disappear at the first sign of a downturn. PSA Airlines, a regional carrier owned by American Airlines, has introduced a cadet scholarship program, offering to pay students as much as $5,000 to help cover the cost of becoming a pilot. It also will reimburse commuting pilots up to $3,000 a year for costs such as hotel stays.

 

The competition for pilots is also fierce overseas. Ryanair HoldingsPLC, Europe’s biggest budget carrier, has tried to poach pilots from rivals. On social media, Ryanair’s head of talent acquisition, Mark Duffy, promised to get experienced Norwegian Air ShuttleAS A co-pilots quickly into the better-paid captain’s seat if they switched employers. Norwegian Air wouldn’t directly address its rivals’ actions, but said it had been hiring Ryanair pilots and was open to adding more.

Airlines also are setting up training centers to avoid getting into costly bidding wars for staff.

Australia’s Qantas Airways Ltd. has said it would spend around $15 million this year on a pilot academy to meet its own crew needs and potentially those of other airlines. Emirates Airline, the world’s largest carrier by international traffic, last year opened a $270 million training center to help attract new pilots.

Even rapidly expanding Eastern European discounter Wizz Air Holdings PLC, among the most cost-conscious carriers flying, has set up a pilot academy. Chief Executive József Váradi said Wizz Air’s aggressive expansion requires it to add 300 to 400 pilots a year in the next five years. With the academy, Mr. Váradi said, “we can control our own destiny.”

[Critter]

None of this will matter in Canada if we can’t find a solution to the instructor problem. 

I’m talking to more potential pilots who are on a waiting list for instructors only to have those instructors move on basically forcing them to backtrack a bit with a new one.

Industry will need to become part of the solution. Line pilots who want to teach should be allowed to do so within their flying block (for example 10 days line flying and 6 days ab initio at an airline’s partner school). It’s a hit to the bottom line but I would imagine less so than parking multi million dollar assets.

Line pilots would get their stick and rudder skills back and students would get the added benefit if experienced tutelage.

Just thinking out loud.

[blues deville]

1 hour ago, Critter said:

None of this will matter in Canada if we can’t find a solution to the instructor problem. 

I’m talking to more potential pilots who are on a waiting list for instructors only to have those instructors move on basically forcing them to backtrack a bit with a new one.

Industry will need to become part of the solution. Line pilots who want to teach should be allowed to do so within their flying block (for example 10 days line flying and 6 days ab initio at an airline’s partner school). It’s a hit to the bottom line but I would imagine less so than parking multi million dollar assets.

Line pilots would get their stick and rudder skills back and students would get the added benefit if experienced tutelage.

Just thinking out loud.

This instructor situation is only going to get worse. More ideas such as yours will be needed to keep planes flying. 

[Guest]

55 minutes ago, blues deville said:

This instructor situation is only going to get worse. More ideas such as yours will be needed to keep planes flying. 

Maybe, just maybe it is time to pay instructors what they are worth but of course that would also increase the overall cost of getting a licence leading to fewer to afford to become a pilot and around it goes.   Maybe the only answer is to reduce the number of flights.  

[Kip Powick]

2 hours ago, Malcolm said:

Maybe, just maybe it is time to pay instructors what they are worth but of course that would also increase the overall cost of getting a licence leading to fewer to afford to become a pilot and around it goes.   Maybe the only answer is to reduce the number of flights.  

Reduced flights mean layoffs and higher fares and that won't happen because of the LCC and ULCC.

Want to attracts pilots...?.......raise their wages and raise fares...sure it might require a bit of downsizing but it would probably work but...oh no.......the bean counters want "super" SULLC and unfortunately there will always be some people who  will fly those planes for peanuts...

In my opinion the public has been spoiled rotten by low fares..... but wait for it........there will be an accident or two and they will find out that PILOT EXPERIENCE and TRAINING was lacking in that sorry aircraft...

Too bad all the pilots with  major carriers wouldn't stand shoulder to shoulder and refuse to fly until they were paid what they are really worth.

 

[rudder]

Market forces.

Instructor pay will have to reflect dearth of supply and increase in demand as the boomers retire.

Same for stimulating entry level interest in the profession. Either make the WAWCON attractive to the millennial generation or preare to park aircraft.

[Guest]

Or cut back number of flights and concentrate on filling the 18% unsold seats and then due to reduced costs up the pay so as to attract new crews to replace those who retire.  I agree with Kip though as long as there are folks who will work for and crew Lowcost, unlta low cost, I suspect the traditional carriers will not have the funds or the client base to pony up higher salaries.

[blues deville]

7 hours ago, Rich Pulman said:

Blah, blah, blah. Yada, yada, yada. We’ve been reading about the shortage for years, and years, and years, and.... Anyone here tried to get a flying job in Canada recently? I have. Good luck even getting an acknowledgement of your application. No, I’m not upset about it, but it does make me chuckle when I hear operators complain about a pilot shortage. Then again, maybe my reputation precedes me. 

I've been reading and hearing about this shortage for years too but I'm convinced its now arrived. Years ago when I first considered working offshore a former CP mentioned some of the issues with returning to fly in Canada. I took his advice then and didn't go but I have since and he was right. It is a process to come back especially if you've lost contact with your former group of aviation people. However some things are easier now such as getting your Canadian ATPL back if it has lapsed. No need to rent simulator time, etc. Back working in Canada now and I'm glad to be home. I know many others are also returning from long term jobs elsewhere in the world and being hired at various airlines with some DEC's too. I think this situation may continue due to the rate of retirees and planned airline growth over the next few years.

[lvlchange]

Anyone see the possibility that the USA could open the borders?  After Trump lol.