AF447 wreckage found

[Don Hudson]

Awaiting further from the BEA.

Two sources:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-12953432

&

http://lci.tf1.fr/france/faits-divers/2011-03/crash-rio-paris-des-elements-de-l-avion-localises-6345360.html

3 April 2011 Last updated at 16:52 ET

Wreckage from an Air France jet lost over the Atlantic nearly two years ago with 288 people on board has been found, French investigators say.

With the cause of the crash still unknown, a fourth attempt to locate the plane's voice and data recorders got under way last month.

Searchers located wreckage during the past 24 hours, investigators in Paris said, without giving details.

Flight 447 from Rio de Janeiro to Paris came down in a storm on 1 June 2009.

A French judge recently filed preliminary manslaughter charges against Air France over the crash.

Airbus, the maker of the jet, says no one can know for sure how the crash occurred unless the so-called "black boxes" are found.

The search has been financed jointly by Air France and Airbus. It involves dives to depths of up to 4,000m (13,120ft) with the use of special robots to examine the ocean floor between Brazil and West Africa.

'No guarantee'

France's Bureau of Investigations and Analysis (BEAR) said that plane parts of the plane had been located by the searchers, led by Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.

Start Quote

These parts have been identified by BEA investigators as belonging to the wreck of the A330-203, Flight AF 447”

End Quote

French Bureau of Investigations and Analysis "These parts have been identified by BEA investigators as belonging to the wreck of the A330-203, Flight AF 447," it added.

The bureau promised to release further information later.

An initial search found 50 bodies and hundreds of pieces of the plane, including its torn-off tail, while the last search ended in failure in May 2010.

The latest search was planned as a "systematic exploration" of an area of some 10,000 sq km (3,900 sq miles).

Officials have previously said there can be no guarantee that the flight recorders will ever be found.

Those who died included more than 30 nationalities. Most were French, Brazilian or German.

The crash has been partially blamed on malfunctioning speed sensors but officials believe other factors must also have contributed.

[Guest]

Don

Assuming the FDR and/or CVR were not destroyed in the crash (ie: beyond what they were built to withstand), what are the odds that investigators will get good data given the passage of time and the extraordinarily harsh environmental conditions they have rested in since 2009?

[Don Hudson]

Don

Assuming the FDR and/or CVR were not destroyed in the crash (ie: beyond what they were built to withstand), what are the odds that investigators will get good data given the passage of time and the extraordinarily harsh environmental conditions they have rested in since 2009?

Canoehead;

The question of the moment!

I would be prepared for the possibility that the recorders may have broken loose at initial impact, (slight nose up, 5deg left bank - from the BEA Interim Reports and analysis of the rudder web mounts - we know that almost certainly the rudder broke towards the left because of the way it was found floating - the rest of the analysis was done on the fuselage web mounts, tell-tale markings and known tensile strengths of broken fasteners). Even then however, given that the reports that the wreckage is together in a small area, the recorders would be very close even if separated.

If in the tail, as mounted, then recovery will be difficult from another standpoint - sawing/cutting into the fuselage then releasing the recorders from their mounts.

Now...on a limb for a moment: All this said, assuming the recorders are located, I think they will be in "pristine" condition in the sense that the impact will not have damaged them. The main concern is the pressure under which the recorders will have been subjected. I think that even if the recorders leaked, they are solid state and, with no recording medium (such as optical disc or tape) to destroy, the recorded information will be available from both units. If the CVR is tape, (I can't recall), and if the seal has been breached, retrieving information will be more questionable, but the French, the Americans or Canadians are all capable of remarkable recovery work from such recorders.

In short, with qualifications, I am optimistic that sufficient data will be retrieved to determine the causes of the accident, but the process of recovery is perilous as we can imagine.

I haven't seen any information on location yet, but my guess is that the wreckage is within 20nm of the LKP and a few km north of the "pollution slick" first photographed around June 4th.

Don

[Guest alkaid]

Be ready for a surprise finding if the recorders are found. It seems to happen sometimes when there has been lots of speculation over a long period of time about a crash cause.

[deicer]

http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/europe/04/04/france.jet.wreckage/index.html?hpt=T1&iref=BN1

[Mitch Cronin]

Be ready for a surprise finding if the recorders are found. It seems to happen sometimes when there has been lots of speculation over a long period of time about a crash cause.

Of course it'll be a surprise! Otherwise the accident wouldn't have happened.

[Don Hudson]

alkaid;

Can you tell us what you mean by 'surprise'? I'm not challenging your comment - I'm interested in what might constitute a "surprise", because, for many, (but likely not those who fly this aircraft on similar routes), I think this will be a surprise, but not for everyone.

I say this because the range of speculation by those in the industry has been very broad since June 1, 2009. There have been contributions by some very knowledgable and experienced people, many who have flown the aircraft a lot but also by those who are aeronautical engineers, software engineers who have examined the 13 or so other "loss of airspeed" events which have occurred on this aircraft, (none of which resulted in loss-of-control.

If you're referring to what has been written in the media over the past two years about this accident I would certainly agree with you. With perhaps the exception of the WSJ's Andy Pazstor and for example the Seattle-Post Intelligencer, the media do not understand how to deal with complexity, risk and accident analysis or causal analysis.

However, I think there are a number of people out there whose speculation will be very close to what actually occurred, and in that sense I believe that there will be a raised eyebrow or two but no real surprises.

If anything, what will likely constitute a surprise will be how simple the explanation may be; - that the loss of the aircraft was nothing that those who fly these aircraft might not intuitively understand, and may perhaps have seen/been in similar circumstances but without one or another of the key elements occurring simultaneously.

It has been my belief all along that the captain was not in the cockpit, (likely on crew rest break), and that the RP was in the left seat, the F/O in the right. All this is completely speculative but it is also driven by experience and knowledge from having done this kind of flying. Circumstances rapidly overwhelming the crew, perhaps combined with such issues as levels of knowledge/training/experience, have also been discussed.

We all know by now (or should) that loss of airspeed indication does not cause the loss of the aircraft, nor should the series of ECAM cautions and warnings associated with other systems reliant upon the primary data, in and of themselves, cause a loss of control.

Many of us here know a lot about violent weather and its avoidanc using radar, and may even have personal "experience" with it and know what it can do. Many know the importance of being able to use the radar correctly, being able to read/interpret the returns and act on same. The A330 radar is a superb installation.

We know that the aircraft had to go from M0.82 (earlier position report) to about 196kts which, in simulator trials, is within about 5kts of the theoretical 1.0g stall speed of an A330 at 205T, at FL350 with a c/g at 37.5% (roughly) and up to a TAT of ISA+20. The question which may be a part of the surprise you're anticipating, will involve "How did the aircraft do that?" Pitch-up is one quick way, and perhaps that's what the CABIN VERT SPEED advisory message, (the last one sent), was about. But why a pitch-up?, (if indeed it happened).

We knew early on that the aircraft was a long way from "coffin corner", (that concept so often referred to in discussions about cause, but still not understood at all by the media and sometimes even other commentators).

A Russian study done some time agao showed that out of the few loss of control accidents which occurred at cruise altitude (around 9), that every one of these aircraft impacted within 3 minutes of the first indication of an emergency, and within about 14nm of same. I suspect this information may have assisted the search.

The discovery of the site must be one of mixed feelings for the families of the victims of this crash.

Don

[Seeker]

The discovery of the site must be one of mixed feelings for the families of the victims of this crash.

Don

Thanks for the analysis Don, always a pleasure to read your comments here. With regards to the families of the victims, I was going to post a comment earlier but changed my mind. I'll just say that I don't know which is worse - to have lost someone in a situation such as this or to see their body recovered two years later from the wreckage, either way it's grim.

[Don Hudson]

Thanks for the analysis Don, always a pleasure to read your comments here. With regards to the families of the victims, I was going to post a comment earlier but changed my mind. I'll just say that I don't know which is worse - to have lost someone in a situation such as this or to see their body recovered two years later from the wreckage, either way it's grim.

Yep, either way...very grim stuff indeed. Its why the cause has to be found. D.

[W5]

Some pictures here:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/05/world/europe/05brazil.html?hp

[Guest alkaid]

alkaid;

Can you tell us what you mean by 'surprise'? I'm not challenging your comment - I'm interested in what might constitute a "surprise", because, for many, (but likely not those who fly this aircraft on similar routes), I think this will be a surprise, but not for everyone.

I say this because the range of speculation by those in the industry has been very broad since June 1, 2009. There have been contributions by some very knowledgable and experienced people, many who have flown the aircraft a lot but also by those who are aeronautical engineers, software engineers who have examined the 13 or so other "loss of airspeed" events which have occurred on this aircraft, (none of which resulted in loss-of-control.

If you're referring to what has been written in the media over the past two years about this accident I would certainly agree with you. With perhaps the exception of the WSJ's Andy Pazstor and for example the Seattle-Post Intelligencer, the media do not understand how to deal with complexity, risk and accident analysis or causal analysis.

My staement is not based on any information. In fact I have intentionally not followed the threads and endless speculation and reports based on little information leading to what seemed to have been conclusions. I have just seen the unexpected be revealed when the boxes are read.

[Check Pilot]

There may be a chance that some recorder information could be recovered.

http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/americas/04/28/air.france.447.airbus.recorder/index.html?eref=mrss_igoogle_cnn

[Kip Powick]

There may be a chance that some recorder information could be recovered.

http://www.cnn.com/2...rss_igoogle_cnn

Missing module ???? You would think they would have built a bigger box with the module in it.....that module is one tiny piece that could easily fly in any direction or be very easily buried.

[Don Hudson]

There may be a chance that some recorder information could be recovered.

http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/americas/04/28/air.france.447.airbus.recorder/index.html?eref=mrss_igoogle_cnn

Check Pilot;

In keeping with Spring, the conspiracy theorists on PPRuNe are in full bloom and the new thread on AF447, once promising, is currently not worth examining because intelligent, informed comment by some very good contributors who know their stuff has been once again pushed out by the ersatz, 9/11-Was-An-Inside-Job bunch. They're not very creative nor very bright in the construction of their stupid, limited theories but the trouble is, the noise makes it impossible to see truly interesting and relevant information on this accident. I know several contributors who simply have left the conversation.

All that dismissed, there are some worthwhile contributions on the closed thread for those keen to understand some of the details of this accident but the best place by far to obtain information is still the BEA site, and primarily the first and second Interim Reports, read carefully and a few times over at that.

Link to the BEA AF447 updates

Link to the Honeywell SSFDR (980-4700-42) installed on AF447

I wonder if any of the data which is recorded on the CSMU is stored elsewhere in the main body of the recorder which we see in the photographs? In the AA965 B757 accident at Cali, investigators were able to read the chips in the MCDU to see what the last entries were, (not recorded by the DFDR). Perhaps that may be the case here. For sure, there are people who already know and we will, soon enough. I wish more photographs were made available.

Don

PS for Kip:

The vertical forces were astonishingly high. The unit weighs around 14lbs but the inertia of even a small mass under the 'g' loading of impact would drive it downwards. The bottom fuselage skin would have peeled back and the hydraulic force would open the entire fuselage along the mid-line (floor level), permitting cabin structures to be ejected, largely unimpeded as shown by the relatively pristine condition of the recovered material, (galleys, etc). - the exception would be around the wing box, but the material found floating is mostly from the fuselage joins just behind the cockpit, just ahead and behind the wing box and just ahead of the pressure dome bulkhead.

Though the area in the tail section where this recorder is mounted is relatively open, (except for the rudder control structure and the THS drive/screwjack and the HS wing box itself), the upward impact force from the water (coming up through a large inspection hatch) would have been enormous and perhaps "launched" the module out of its four mounts, bending it slightly as we see. The bolts holding the CSMU to the main recorder body are not insubstantial, and in the photograph, one can see clear evidence of severe dimpling, (heads of the bolts forced upwards through the bolt-holes).

[added comment] Yes, the SSFDR is upside down as the photograph was taken; the CSMU was bolted to the left-hand section. Likely it is nearby, depending upon when, in the impact sequence, it broke away.

Here is a photograph of the area I'm talking about:

Here is a cropped photo of just the SSFDR, rotated 180deg so it is now "up-right", done in black and white to accentuate the dimpled area on the bottom of the unit, right-hand side:

Bit clinical I know but much is known from the wreckage already. The real question is, as is known, is how did the aircraft go from stable flight at M0.82, to a fully stalled condition.

[Kip Powick]

Don,

Link to Honeywell does not work??

[moeman]

Nevermind...

[Kip Powick]

Don,

Took awhile but I think I know where you are going

The photo in Check Pilot's link is of the chassis UPSIDE DOWN and the module would be at the left end of the chassis body and by just looking at the photo one could possible assume that the module is "buried" in the mud.......however because of the bolt holes...which are hard to see for these old eyes, being dimpled, the module must have been torn away from the chassis......is this correct??

Maybe...just maybe..the photo is all they have and they have not yet seen if the module is under the mud.

[Don Hudson]

AF447 CSMU [Crash Survivable Memory Unit] located and recovered:

http://www.bea.aero/fr/enquetes/vol.af.447/info01mai2011.en.php

[props2you]

Let's hope it is still able to shed some light on what happened.

[J.O.]

Good news! Now we can only hope that the data has survived.

[thor]

Good news! Now we can only hope that the data has survived.

[mo32a]

Don,

Took awhile but I think I know where you are going

The photo in Check Pilot's link is of the chassis UPSIDE DOWN and the module would be at the left end of the chassis body and by just looking at the photo one could possible assume that the module is "buried" in the mud.......however because of the bolt holes...which are hard to see for these old eyes, being dimpled, the module must have been torn away from the chassis......is this correct??

Maybe...just maybe..the photo is all they have and they have not yet seen if the module is under the mud.

Your eyes are dimpled? I don't think I've ever seen that.

[Kip Powick]

Your eyes are dimpled? I don't think I've ever seen that.

Ya got me there...what a poorly written sentence, punctuation seems to have been disregarded completely

********************************

Years ago my English teacher show the importance of punctuation with this simple sentence.

Background////// A salesman went on the road to work, and when he left home his young wife, who was recovering from the flu, told him not to worry, and insisted he go on his selling trip for the required two weeks. She said she would let him know via telegram..(yes, boys and girls there was no wireless, Internet, etc., at one time in my life)...... how she felt in a week or so.

The question is........what would the salesman's reaction be if he received this telegram a week after his departure............?

NOT GETTING MUCH, BETTER COME HOME.........instead of this telegram

NOT GETTING MUCH BETTER, COME HOME.

:Grin-Nod: Funny how some things a teacher says to you......you never forget

[Don Hudson]

The Ile de Sein and Remora 6000 vehicle have located and recovered the CVR. Both will travel to France out of French Guiana.

Don